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Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans

Player Page Link: Chris Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :goodposting: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
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Will likely get 300 carries again and probably 45-55 receptions. 5 ypc with that OL is easy to project, and double digit Tds are almost in the bag with this guy. I think the massive long runs are going to curtail just a bit, they have to.

300-1550-12Td, 50-450-3Td

2,000 total yds and 15 Tds plus his receptions. He is a no brainer as the #1 RB off the board. He is the 2nd coming of Marshall Faulk with less weapons around him. Johnson has the best chance to hit 2,000 total yds and 15+ Tds in the league, you're a fool to pass him with the #1 pick. And I am trying to be conservative in the projections but it's hard to project much worse. Only thing that can stop him is an injury and how can you project that out?

Fingers crossed that he doesn't hold out.

 
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Will likely get 300 carries again and probably 45-55 receptions. 5 ypc with that OL is esy to project, and double digit Tds are almost in the bag with this guy. I think the massive long runs are going to curtail just a bit, they have to.

300-1550-12Td, 50-450-3Td

2,000 total yds and 15 Tds plus his receptions. He is a no brainer as the #1 RB off the board. He is the 2nd coming of Marshall Faulk with less weapons around him. Johnson has the best chance to hit 2,000 total yds and 15+ Tds in the league, you're a fool to pass him with the #1 pick. And I am trying to be conservative in the projections but it's hard to project much worse. Only thing that can stop him is an injury and how can you project that out?

Fingers crossed that he doesn't hold out.
the amazing thing about CJ is that the long runs might not go down - his speed is so great that the number of scenarios where he can easily take it to the house are many times greater than for any other back playing right now.
 
pretty obvious what your getting with him

and as a titans fan, they are and have been a running team (aslong as fisherball is there)

prob 1 of the safest picks in FF

2 downsides.....high risk for injury, even if not serious, might just miss time in games due to tweaked ankles etc... because he does get the ball so much (i.e. steven jackson.....i dont know how many times i was watching a rams game last year and jackson wouldnt be on the field and im like wtf....he was "resting" cuz his back)

and his contract.....the titans are greedy, and if they dont give the man exactly what he want, he will sit out......

 
My concerns with CJ are simply the question of whether he can repeat last year's performance (history says no), and the seemingly minor issues that could blow up. VY's recent altercation, if it's indicative of where his head is at is a concern for CJ. Plus the pending holdout could mean nothing or it could cause other issues.

I'm a big fan, lucky enough to have drafted him as a rookie in my main league but I'm not going to predict another 2,000 yard season. 300 carries and a 5 ypc average (1500 yards) seems easy enough, but I'll say 40 receptions for roughly 300 yards. 10 total TDs.

 
My concerns with CJ are simply the question of whether he can repeat last year's performance (history says no), and the seemingly minor issues that could blow up. VY's recent altercation, if it's indicative of where his head is at is a concern for CJ. Plus the pending holdout could mean nothing or it could cause other issues. I'm a big fan, lucky enough to have drafted him as a rookie in my main league but I'm not going to predict another 2,000 yard season. 300 carries and a 5 ypc average (1500 yards) seems easy enough, but I'll say 40 receptions for roughly 300 yards. 10 total TDs.
Just curious, you say you expect 40 receptions --- since CJ had 43 catches his rookie year and 50 catches last year, why do you expect him to be used less as a receiver in 2010?
 
Michael Fox said:
My concerns with CJ are simply the question of whether he can repeat last year's performance (history says no), and the seemingly minor issues that could blow up. VY's recent altercation, if it's indicative of where his head is at is a concern for CJ. Plus the pending holdout could mean nothing or it could cause other issues. I'm a big fan, lucky enough to have drafted him as a rookie in my main league but I'm not going to predict another 2,000 yard season. 300 carries and a 5 ypc average (1500 yards) seems easy enough, but I'll say 40 receptions for roughly 300 yards. 10 total TDs.
Just curious, you say you expect 40 receptions --- since CJ had 43 catches his rookie year and 50 catches last year, why do you expect him to be used less as a receiver in 2010?
Britt improving (I hope), Cook developing, Williams getting some time in, Gage/Washington/Scaife playing roles still. Only so many balls to go around in Nashville. Not so much indicative of his talent just more players to spread the wealth with. Besides, I'd like to keep CJ fresh and giving him the ball more than 350 times this year along with the wear and tear from last isn't the way to do that. Just my opinion of course.
 
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Best offensive player in the league bar none. He will end up rewriting records health permitting.

1925 total yards 44 receptions 13 total TD's.

 
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not a single person doesn't think he'll be in the lineup week 1, huh?
I think he'll be in the line up but... I'm worried about little to no training camp and him trying to do too much to prove his worth for a new deal, resulting in injury. I just traded for him a couple of weeks ago though; he's worth the risk.
 
not a single person doesn't think he'll be in the lineup week 1, huh?
TN front office traditionally stubborn and uncreative with big contracts but they will get CJ his $ somehow even with 30% rule.The gold standard of RBs right now-- CJ is the new Priest, Faulk, etc. Passing on him at #1 is dumb. TN O-line rules, home-field grass is good for his knees and ankles. Take him #1 overall and go to work kicking tail. Doesn't matter who the Titans QB is. You pass on CJ at #1, you dumb.1725 rush yds, 16 rush TDs400 rec yds, 50 rec, 4 rec TDs+1 pass TDBook it.
 
The best fantasy running back in the game today due to his speed and ability to make a guy miss. He can make an 80 TD whether it's passing or receiving better than anyone I've seen since Barry Sanders. Barry's were more spectacular because he couldn't just use speed to get past the 11 defensive players where Johnson uses blazing speed to get past an entire defense.

This guy makes your team an instant contender in fantasy football, you better hope you get him.

1700 yards rushing 12 TD's 54 receptions for 500 yards and 4 td's

 
First time last year with a full workload

2,000 yards

sitting out camps waiting for a big contract

I've seen this movie before and it doesn't end up good for the star

CJ is ultratalented but I'm gonna pass on him this year until about pick 7-10 (which means I won't get him)

 
Aardvarks said:
not a single person doesn't think he'll be in the lineup week 1, huh?
TN front office traditionally stubborn and uncreative with big contracts but they will get CJ his $ somehow even with 30% rule.The gold standard of RBs right now-- CJ is the new Priest, Faulk, etc. Passing on him at #1 is dumb. TN O-line rules, home-field grass is good for his knees and ankles. Take him #1 overall and go to work kicking tail. Doesn't matter who the Titans QB is.

You pass on CJ at #1, you dumb.

1725 rush yds, 16 rush TDs

400 rec yds, 50 rec, 4 rec TDs

+1 pass TD

Book it.
You say this, but with Collins in CJ averaged about 40 less rushing yards per game than with VY.
 
Aardvarks said:
not a single person doesn't think he'll be in the lineup week 1, huh?
TN front office traditionally stubborn and uncreative with big contracts but they will get CJ his $ somehow even with 30% rule.The gold standard of RBs right now-- CJ is the new Priest, Faulk, etc. Passing on him at #1 is dumb. TN O-line rules, home-field grass is good for his knees and ankles. Take him #1 overall and go to work kicking tail. Doesn't matter who the Titans QB is.

You pass on CJ at #1, you dumb.

1725 rush yds, 16 rush TDs

400 rec yds, 50 rec, 4 rec TDs

+1 pass TD

Book it.
You say this, but with Collins in CJ averaged about 40 less rushing yards per game than with VY.
Tougher stretch of teams at the beginning of the year- steelers, jets, colts, pats.
 
Aardvarks said:
not a single person doesn't think he'll be in the lineup week 1, huh?
TN front office traditionally stubborn and uncreative with big contracts but they will get CJ his $ somehow even with 30% rule.The gold standard of RBs right now-- CJ is the new Priest, Faulk, etc. Passing on him at #1 is dumb. TN O-line rules, home-field grass is good for his knees and ankles. Take him #1 overall and go to work kicking tail. Doesn't matter who the Titans QB is.

You pass on CJ at #1, you dumb.

1725 rush yds, 16 rush TDs

400 rec yds, 50 rec, 4 rec TDs

+1 pass TD

Book it.
You say this, but with Collins in CJ averaged about 40 less rushing yards per game than with VY.
Tougher stretch of teams at the beginning of the year- steelers, jets, colts, pats.
The Titans played Houston, Indy and Jacksonville both with Collins and VY.With Collins, CJ netted 314 rushing yards for 105 average.

With VY, CJ netted 492 rushing, 164 average.

FWIW, these games were before week 13, the offense wasn't pushing hard yet to give CJ his 2000

 
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Aardvarks said:
not a single person doesn't think he'll be in the lineup week 1, huh?
TN front office traditionally stubborn and uncreative with big contracts but they will get CJ his $ somehow even with 30% rule.The gold standard of RBs right now-- CJ is the new Priest, Faulk, etc. Passing on him at #1 is dumb. TN O-line rules, home-field grass is good for his knees and ankles. Take him #1 overall and go to work kicking tail. Doesn't matter who the Titans QB is.

You pass on CJ at #1, you dumb.

1725 rush yds, 16 rush TDs

400 rec yds, 50 rec, 4 rec TDs

+1 pass TD

Book it.
You say this, but with Collins in CJ averaged about 40 less rushing yards per game than with VY.
Tougher stretch of teams at the beginning of the year- steelers, jets, colts, pats.
The Titans played Houston, Indy and Jacksonville both with Collins and VY.With Collins, CJ netted 314 rushing yards for 105 average.

With VY, CJ netted 492 rushing, 164 average.

FWIW, these games were before week 13, the offense wasn't pushing hard yet to give CJ his 2000
Still not sure if that was the collins/young switch or just how the titans were using CJ at the beginning of the year. He just wasn't getting the carries he got towards the middle and end of the year. Lendale was a good part of the running attack for the first 5 games with 33 carries. They didn't use him nearly as much after that. CJ averaged 7.6 YPC against Indy/Texans/Jags with Collins starting and 6.2 YPC with Young starting.
 
Not only is he the safest RB bet to put up 1500-2000 combined yards and double digit TD's if he is not injured, but he is a joy to watch if you own him.

Number 1 RB drafted by a good margin.

 
not a single person doesn't think he'll be in the lineup week 1, huh?
My worry isn't that he won't be in the line up week 1. It's that he will be there in week 1 after a very abbreviated TC and in week three tweak something and miss time till week 9.
 
I can't imagine much need for discussion on Chris Johnson. His combination of speed, shiftiness, vision, and did I say speed, together with the Titans OL and game plan lead to almost unquestioned production. I slightly prefer Adrian Peterson this year, because I believe he will be supremely focused because of the fumbling issues of 09, but you can't argue with the selection of CJ at #1.

The only caution at this point is the holdout, but I really doubt that he misses any games and I just don't see that affecting his play once the season kicks off.

Chris Johnson 16 gms 310 rushes 1550 yds 5.0 ypc 60 targets 45 catches 360 yds 8.0 ypc and 12 TDs

 
1. No player who has led the NFL in touches and carries has ever replicated their success the following season.

2. TEN no longer can employ their 3 tackle Jumbo set with Crumpler now blocking in NE.

3. I'm not sure if points 1 & 2 are enough to keep me from drafting him #1 overall.

303 carries, 1678 yards, 11 TD, 58 receptions, 611 yards, 4 TD

 
drater said:
1. No player who has led the NFL in touches and carries has ever replicated their success the following season.303 carries, 1678 yards, 11 TD, 58 receptions, 611 yards, 4 TD
I'm not sure what #1 means, but still, I don't think any definition would make it accurate.In 2001, Tomlinson led the league in touches and then had even more touches and led the league again in 2002. But by replicating their success I think you meant fantasy success -- but ADP just last year scored more FP in 2009 than he did in 2008, when he led the league in touches. Same goes for Tomlinson (twice), Edgerrin James, Terrell Davis, etc.
 
It's certainly difficult to mount a case against Chris Johnson. Fact of the matter is that he's the most explosive RB the NFL has seen in a long time and in terms of how much the Titans count on him, so long as he stays healthy, he's going to produce. But I think there are concerns, however minor, people are overlooking here that might affect his performance in 2010 that should be put out there.

1) 2009 Workload: Johnson had 408 touches last season; 297 of them in the final 10 games of the season. That is an absolutely extraordinary workload for a player of Johnson's size and it did seem to take a toll on him at the end of the season. Whereas his YPC for the first 11 games of the year was 6.5, during the final 5 games, that figure dipped to 4.3. Now the fact that Johnson can make hey in the passing game help to diversify the way in which he can get the ball. But last year was something Johnson had never come close to being exposed to in terms of body wear & tear.

2) Contract Situation: No doubt I think he'll play this year. But I would not be surprised if a decent portion of his motivation to stump for a new contract 2 years into the league is because he was used so heavily this past season. Almost as if to say - if you plan on giving me another 400 touches this season, you better be paying me for it. In this scenario, it's not really just about the production, but Johnson's ability to produce at the same level when he would traditionally be in line to receive an extension. He's privy to examples like Ricky Williams, Terrell Davis and Edgerrin James who were worked to the bone early in their careers and suffered burnout or injury. He saw Michael Turner go down to injury after getting 376 carries the season prior. My overall point, and this is a hypothesis, is that his workload last year did take some toll on him and accelerated his desire to get paid.

3) 0-6: Remember that stat above (297 touches in the final 10 games of 2009). Well, that was IMO driven by the fact that Johnson was the only thing going right for Tennessee and Fisher rode him because he was fighting for his job. During that 0-6 beginning, Johnson's touches were being managed at between 18-19 which was more indicative of his rookie season. I'm not suggesting that Fisher will throttle Johnson back to that level. But I would be surprised to see Johnson exceed 400 touches again.

Overall, Johnson's should still be the #1 overall pick. His game breaking potential on every play the ball is in his hands is too much to ignore. But to expect the type of delta he provided last year between him and the rest of the field could leave you disappointed.

Prediction: 322 Carries, 1578 Rushing Yards, 9 TD's, 45 Receptions 387 Receiving Yards, 1 TD.

 
Overall, Johnson's should still be the #1 overall pick. His game breaking potential on every play the ball is in his hands is too much to ignore. But to expect the type of delta he provided last year between him and the rest of the field could leave you disappointed.
This is an excellent point. If he gets into training camp on time with a new K in his back pocket and the coaches trot him out there at 29.7 touches a game like they did week 7 on last year he'll break down. The coaching staff needs to keep him on the field. They will have to limit him to keep him healthy. They guy could easily be top 5 with just 2/3's of those touches. If he does come out with a similar delta to the next guy and finishes all 16 games then dump him in the offseason as fast as you can as he will be dunzo...
 
not a single person doesn't think he'll be in the lineup week 1, huh?
My worry isn't that he won't be in the line up week 1. It's that he will be there in week 1 after a very abbreviated TC and in week three tweak something and miss time till week 9.
The problem is that the injury worry could apply to any RB really. Not a valid reason. Missing training camp isn't important to me, its not as important for RBs and he will get some time because of the 30 day rule. He won't want to lose a year of free agency.He's your best option at the first pick in regular or PPR leagues.
 
Of the other guys that ran for or approached 2K rushing yards, most of them fell well short in repeating.

Dickerson 2105 --> 1234

Lewis 2066 --> 1006

Sanders 2053 --> 1491

Davis 2008 --> 211

Simpson 2003 --> 1125

Campbell 1934 --> 1376

Sanders 1833 --> 1500

Green 1833 --> 1163

Alexander 1880 --> 896

Brown 1863 --> 1446

Johnson should still be a threat and very productive, but to expect him to approach last year's numbers is asking too much IMO.

 
Of the other guys that ran for or approached 2K rushing yards, most of them fell well short in repeating.Dickerson 2105 --> 1234Lewis 2066 --> 1006Sanders 2053 --> 1491Davis 2008 --> 211Simpson 2003 --> 1125Campbell 1934 --> 1376Sanders 1833 --> 1500Green 1833 --> 1163Alexander 1880 --> 896Brown 1863 --> 1446Johnson should still be a threat and very productive, but to expect him to approach last year's numbers is asking too much IMO.
It'll be very interesting to see what Johnson does this season. Every prediction in this thread, except for one, predicts Johnson to do something that's never been done before (follow a 2000 yard season with a 1500+ yard season). Even removing Davis' 211, that's an average of 1248 yards (a little less when only including the 2K follow-ups). Interesting that the only 3 of those guys to not be a rather large disappointment (1300+) include the one-in-a-trillion Barry Sanders and possibly the 2 toughest, most bruising backs in NFL history (Brown, Campbell).It's a very small sample size and there's a first time for everything, so there's obviously no reason to discount him based on what happened to others. It's just interesting and means Johnson will really distinguish himself, more than he already has, if he can put up another monster.
 
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Of the other guys that ran for or approached 2K rushing yards, most of them fell well short in repeating.Dickerson 2105 --> 1234Lewis 2066 --> 1006Sanders 2053 --> 1491Davis 2008 --> 211Simpson 2003 --> 1125Campbell 1934 --> 1376Sanders 1833 --> 1500Green 1833 --> 1163Alexander 1880 --> 896Brown 1863 --> 1446Johnson should still be a threat and very productive, but to expect him to approach last year's numbers is asking too much IMO.
It'll be very interesting to see what Johnson does this season. Every prediction in this thread, except for one, predicts Johnson to do something that's never been done before (follow a 2000 yard season with a 1500+ yard season). Even removing Davis' 211, that's an average of 1248 yards (a little less when only including the 2K follow-ups). Interesting that the only 3 of those guys to not be a rather large disappointment (1300+) include the one-in-a-trillion Barry Sanders and possibly the 2 toughest, most bruising backs in NFL history (Brown, Campbell).It's a very small sample size and there's a first time for everything, so there's obviously no reason to discount him based on what happened to others. It's just interesting and means Johnson will really distinguish himself, more than he already has, if he can put up another monster.
the only reason he wouldn't have another monster year is injury....he's still in his prime, offense is the same, line is still good, coaching staff/philosophy are the same, still has no one to siphon carries/TDs, still an everydown back and I think still has upside in the passing game. I laugh when I read "ya, he had a great season but won't do it again". That's not exactly a profound statement and is ludicrous reason not to take him. Based on last years stats do people realize he could have a 17% reduction in pts and still have been the #1 back? A 22% reduction he would be the #2 back, a 28% reduction and he'd be the #3 back, nearly a 34% reduction and he'd be the #4 back? He absolutely crushed everyone last year. Even if his numbers drop 20% he's still a lock for the top 5.
 
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I wasn't suggesting that he shouldn't be the 1st player off the board. There's really no way to make a case against him.

It's just interesting what's happened to others after a monster season. Most of it is probably just coincidence. Though it would seem likely that there are some very real factors at play. The heavy workload would make sense. It would also make sense that there are some mental factors at play. The drive and focus it takes to put that kind of season together seems like it would be quite draining and very hard to duplicate the next season. With any sport, there are huge peaks in performance and, often, there are some perplexing valleys before a player/athlete/thoroughbred comes close to reaching those peak levels again.

Johnson, being a sub-200lb. RB, coming off that type of season, it would make sense for a rather large regression. A 700 yard drop in rushing production would be large. I agree that a large regression would have to be injury-related, but Johnson seems like a strong candidate for that.

Eric Dickerson seems to be a decent comparable to Johnson, as he's a home run hitter who's (I think) the only other back to do what CJ has done in his 1st 2 NFL seasons. Dickerson only had 2 other 1500+ yard seasons after his sophmore monster and he never came within 1.0 YPC of that season's 5.6 YPC again.

This is all meaningless in a snake draft. He's the #1 pick. But in an auction, there might be some reasons to temper the bidding.

 
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I wasn't suggesting that he shouldn't be the 1st player off the board. There's really no way to make a case against him.It's just interesting what's happened to others after a monster season. Most of it is probably just coincidence. Though it would seem likely that there are some very real factors at play. The heavy workload would make sense. It would also make sense that there are some mental factors at play. The drive and focus it takes to put that kind of season together seems like it would be quite draining and very hard to duplicate the next season. With any sport, there are huge peaks in performance and, often, there are some perplexing valleys before a player/athlete/thoroughbred comes close to reaching those peak levels again. Johnson, being a sub-200lb. RB, coming off that type of season, it would make sense for a rather large regression. A 700 yard drop in rushing production would be large. I agree that a large regression would have to be injury-related, but Johnson seems like a strong candidate for that.Eric Dickerson seems to be a decent comparable to Johnson, as he's a home run hitter who's (I think) the only other back to do what CJ has done in his 1st 2 NFL seasons. Dickerson only had 2 other 1500+ yard seasons after his sophmore monster and he never came within 1.0 YPC of that season's 5.6 YPC again.This is all meaningless in a snake draft. He's the #1 pick. But in an auction, there might be some reasons to temper the bidding.
sorry, wasn't referring to you specifically, just the C. Johnson threads in general. Although I'm not sure why Johnson would be a strong candidate for injury though or stronger than any other RB. I'm guessing it's based on the fact that he had on a lot of touches. I watched stat masters predict injuries for LT year after year after year because of his enormous cumulative workload and he kept on trucking for years. Unless a player has a chronic injury history (knees/ankles) I don't try to predict injuries. It's hard enough to predict and rank guys without introducing random guesses on which players may get injured.
 
not a single person doesn't think he'll be in the lineup week 1, huh?
My worry isn't that he won't be in the line up week 1. It's that he will be there in week 1 after a very abbreviated TC and in week three tweak something and miss time till week 9.
The problem is that the injury worry could apply to any RB really. Not a valid reason. Missing training camp isn't important to me, its not as important for RBs and he will get some time because of the 30 day rule. He won't want to lose a year of free agency.He's your best option at the first pick in regular or PPR leagues.
I realize it's a moot point now, but to not worry about a player that missed training camp is ridiculous. We see it all the time where guys hold out, come in out of shape and then deal with a hamstring issue all season or something similar because working out with a trainer back home is nothing near working out with the team.
 
Interesting note: after Vince Young was put in as QB, Johnson started getting some short-yardage scores, plus his TD-per-game average went up.

CJ's touchdowns from last year:

Games 1 - 6 - average of .5 TD per game

57 yard run

69 yard pass

91 yard run

[Enter VY as starting QB]

Games 7 - 16 - average of 1.3 TD per game

52 yard run

89 yard run

1 yard run

2 yard run

28 yard run

1 yard run

85 yard run

39 yard run

66 yard pass

3 yard run

30 yard run

6 yard run

1 yard run

In the first 6 games, the Titans still planned to use LenDale as a goal-line back while Kerry Collins was in at QB. They just didn't need him much because Collins wasn't moving the chains well, plus CJ had a few scores from 50+ yards out.

All of CJ's short TDs came after they put Vince in as QB (his first short TD listed above came in Game 8 against San Francisco).

Honestly, I think Vince is their goal-line back now and they keep CJ in on those plays as an outside threat to spread the defense out.

Also, CJ's long TDs (25+ yards) didn't go down after Vince entered the picture either. In fact they went up slightly:

Games 1-6: average of .5 per game

Games 7-16: average of .7 per game

 
Interesting note: after Vince Young was put in as QB, Johnson started getting some short-yardage scores, plus his TD-per-game average went up.

CJ's touchdowns from last year:

Games 1 - 6 - average of .5 TD per game

57 yard run

69 yard pass

91 yard run

[Enter VY as starting QB]

Games 7 - 16 - average of 1.3 TD per game

52 yard run

89 yard run

1 yard run

2 yard run

28 yard run

1 yard run

85 yard run

39 yard run

66 yard pass

3 yard run

30 yard run

6 yard run

1 yard run

In the first 6 games, the Titans still planned to use LenDale as a goal-line back while Kerry Collins was in at QB. They just didn't need him much because Collins wasn't moving the chains well, plus CJ had a few scores from 50+ yards out.

All of CJ's short TDs came after they put Vince in as QB (his first short TD listed above came in Game 8 against San Francisco).

Honestly, I think Vince is their goal-line back now and they keep CJ in on those plays as an outside threat to spread the defense out.

Also, CJ's long TDs (25+ yards) didn't go down after Vince entered the picture either. In fact they went up slightly:

Games 1-6: average of .5 per game

Games 7-16: average of .7 per game
I remember doing a lot of analysis and there was a very good thread on this very point last year. The impact of VY on CJ was dramatic. Defenses had to respect VYs ability to scramble as opposed to having a statue like Collins which was essentially the polar opposite in that regard. Teams have a player shadow Johnson (and they still did) but with VY back there they couldn't just sell out all the time on Johnson and ignore the QB. That momentary hesitiation gives CJ all the time he needs to get a good angle an he's off to the races.
 
2 games missed, 1500 total yards 1100 rushing, 400 receiving - 11 TD's.

In both my leagues the guys aren't bandwagoners and don't ignore history. he went #3 in both leagues and neither guy was excited to get him, but couldn't justify letting him slip another spot.

I think you draft him after Peterson, MJD, and Ray Rice.. and hope he exceeds the numbers I laid out.

I think he'll finish around the #6-7 RB even with 2 games missed, which is pretty good. Hopefully you'll know what 2 games he misses (although you'll likely just know one... he'll get knocked out early in the other) and be able to plug in Ringer and not lose out on stats.

Johnson is awesome, i had him last year, but even Barry freakin' Sanders and Eric EFFING Dickerson has mass drop offs in fantasy points after monster years and they had the same teams and opportunities to match the effort.

 
2 games missed, 1500 total yards 1100 rushing, 400 receiving - 11 TD's.In both my leagues the guys aren't bandwagoners and don't ignore history. he went #3 in both leagues and neither guy was excited to get him, but couldn't justify letting him slip another spot.I think you draft him after Peterson, MJD, and Ray Rice.. and hope he exceeds the numbers I laid out.I think he'll finish around the #6-7 RB even with 2 games missed, which is pretty good. Hopefully you'll know what 2 games he misses (although you'll likely just know one... he'll get knocked out early in the other) and be able to plug in Ringer and not lose out on stats.Johnson is awesome, i had him last year, but even Barry freakin' Sanders and Eric EFFING Dickerson has mass drop offs in fantasy points after monster years and they had the same teams and opportunities to match the effort.
Interesting, because it sounds as if he will fall to 3rd in my draft as well, guy thats in first says hes taking Adrian and the 2nd overall guy is taking Rodgers, but guess who gets the lucky 3 spot? Me. Im thinking take Johnson but I have my mind leaning towards Turner/Rice in that order, why? I think im crazy
 
2 games missed, 1500 total yards 1100 rushing, 400 receiving - 11 TD's.In both my leagues the guys aren't bandwagoners and don't ignore history. he went #3 in both leagues and neither guy was excited to get him, but couldn't justify letting him slip another spot.I think you draft him after Peterson, MJD, and Ray Rice.. and hope he exceeds the numbers I laid out.I think he'll finish around the #6-7 RB even with 2 games missed, which is pretty good. Hopefully you'll know what 2 games he misses (although you'll likely just know one... he'll get knocked out early in the other) and be able to plug in Ringer and not lose out on stats.Johnson is awesome, i had him last year, but even Barry freakin' Sanders and Eric EFFING Dickerson has mass drop offs in fantasy points after monster years and they had the same teams and opportunities to match the effort.
Interesting, because it sounds as if he will fall to 3rd in my draft as well, guy thats in first says hes taking Adrian and the 2nd overall guy is taking Rodgers, but guess who gets the lucky 3 spot? Me. Im thinking take Johnson but I have my mind leaning towards Turner/Rice in that order, why? I think im crazy
Wow... I really feel like this is crazy talk. Nobody is ever a lock for #1 in fantasy. There's always risks of injury and production drop off. But to let a guy who just outscored all other backs by 50+ points (73 in my league) to slip to #4 or #5? I'm not a big CJ guy, but he should be at worst the 2nd runningback off the board in every draft.Take Rice and Turner for example. How shocking would it be if they were not top 10 RBs? I know I wouldn't be completely shocked, but if Johnson isn't 10, I am. Now if Rice or Turner are the #1 back at the end of the year, I'm surprised... If CJ is the #1 back, I don't bat an eye.
 

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