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Michael Bush & Darren McFadden, RBs, Oakland Raiders (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Michael Bush & Darren McFadden, RBs, Oakland Raiders

Player Page Link: Michael Bush Player Page

Player Page Link: Darren McFadden Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :goodposting: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
The telling part of this spotlight is that its the only one I've seen so far that includes 2 for the price of one.

Each seem to be under the microscope this offseason. It's hard to get a good feel until training camp. Key upgrade is having Jason Campbell back there in a stable functional offense. Also key is the improvement of the offensive line.

Both of these runners complement each other well, and it's fair to say that a rotation will exist. Tom Cable will likely feed the "hot hand" during a series or maybe an entire game. It will be difficult to rely on either to get you consistent FF points. But this situation could change in a hurry if an injury happens. Both Bush and McFadden can be had fairly cheap, and have good upside for where you take them.

Since you have chosen to combine them in this series, I will combine my outlook:

450/1740/16 with 50/468/3 for the both of them. :whistle:

I can't guess which gets the lions share.

 
Raiderfan32904 said:


The telling part of this spotlight is that its the only one I've seen so far that includes 2 for the price of one.
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We usually do a number of Spotlights as a tandem particularly when it's a true RBBC situation. FWIW, this is the 3rd combo-RB thread so far. We also have combined Spotlight threads for Bradshaw/Jacobs (NYG) and Barber/Jones (DAL). :whistle:

 
This Spotlight seems to have fallen through the cracks and it really shouldn't. I've seen a people I really respect draft both backs on the relative cheap, and that's an interesting strategy because I could see one being the workhorse in spite of most thinking it'll be a pure RBBC. In PPR leagues, I see the appeal of McFadden now that he's no longer coveted. But in traditional leagues, it's hard for me not to think Bush is the upside option. Bush isn't a bad receiver in his own right, and I believe is a cleaner fit into Tom Cable's desired power running attack.

Where do you stand on these two? Are you targeting one over the other? Passing on both? Trying to handcuff them as a unit?

 
Jason Wood said:
This Spotlight seems to have fallen through the cracks and it really shouldn't. I've seen a people I really respect draft both backs on the relative cheap, and that's an interesting strategy because I could see one being the workhorse in spite of most thinking it'll be a pure RBBC. In PPR leagues, I see the appeal of McFadden now that he's no longer coveted. But in traditional leagues, it's hard for me not to think Bush is the upside option. Bush isn't a bad receiver in his own right, and I believe is a cleaner fit into Tom Cable's desired power running attack.Where do you stand on these two? Are you targeting one over the other? Passing on both? Trying to handcuff them as a unit?
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I am currently targeting Bush as his vision is superior over McFadden. He is the ideal back in the ZBS. He carries a powerful load and is nimble for his frame. He is actually pretty good at catching the ball too. His weakness is his conditioning. He seems to need to get a breather and I'd worry about his ability to be the bell cow. McFadden, well he's a tough nut to figure. He seems to have poor instincts in space, and goes down on contact with his toothpick legs. He only is a factor when he gets the ball in space. Fortunately he now has an accurate passer who can hit him in stride and he can be a homerun threat. But he has limited upside in that those type of plays are just a few per game.Keep an eye on Rock Cartwright, he has excellent vision and toughness and may take over the Fargas role.
 
I like Bush as a solid sleeper. Predicting his #s is a crapshoot though. He should be the starter and McF should come in on 3rd and long plays or as a WR. The problem is this is the Raiders and Al Davis is still calling the shots.

Bush 210 1000 10TDs

 
I think both players are value picks at their current ADP. The CBS Sports mock drafts have them at the number 42 and 44 RBs off the board. I like Bush (#44) better because I feel his numbers will be more consistent. I currently have them rated in the mid 20's for RBs but have not done a stat projection yet.

 
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been on the Bush bandwagon for a while, why stop now?

I think he gets close to 300 carries for the NFL's most improved team - the Oakland Raiders..

McFadden has proven nothing since turning pro, and as other said, he's more of a Reggie Bush type than a starting, featured RB.

Michael Bush

285 carries, 1339 yards, 10 tds..

Campbell improves the offense tremendously

 
I think the situation is hard to project because neither has been a true starter very often, and because the Oakland offense has been such a wasteland over the past couple years. To try to figure out what each one might look like as a starter, I took a look at just those handful of games over the past two years where either Bush or DMC received 10+ rushes or 3+ receptions. Here are those numbers:

Bush

10 games with 10+ carries: 147 attempts for 784 yards and 6 TDs (5.3 yards per rush)

4 games with 3+ receptions: 19 receptions for 158 yards and 0 TDs (8.3 yards per reception)

DMC

9 games with 10+ carries: 122 attempts for 558 yards and 5 TDs (4.6 yards per rush)

9 games with 3+ receptions: 31 receptions for 357 yards and 0 TDs (11.5 yards per reception)

I was hoping this exercise would reveal one of them to be clearly stronger than the other, but they both are pretty evenly matched no matter how I slice it. Also, interestingly, when you focus on just the games where each one was asked to carry a load, both of them look pretty decent despite the weak Oakland offense. During those two years, Fargas chewed up 1300+ rushing yards at 3.9 yards per rush, and 165 receiving yards at 6.1 yards per reception. Fargas also got 4 TDs. As a team, Oakland had 1987 rushing yards in 2008 (4.3 y/r) and 1701 yards in 2009 (4.2 y/r), with about 12% each year going to QBs and other random runners who are not the primary RBs.

As dumb as the Raiders are, I'm guessing they know they've got two potentially valuable RBs on the team, and they'll use both. I'm guessing it will be a fairly even RBBC split between the two, with roughly a 60/40 split on rushing yards favoring Bush, and a 70/30 split on receiving yards favoring DMC.

Bush: 960 yards rushing, 20 receptions for 160 yards, 5 TDs total

McFadden: 640 yards rushing, 35 receptions for 400 yards, 5 TDs total

 
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This is a Bermuda's Triangle from a prediction standpoint. Quite frankly, it's impossible to get a read as to what can really happen here. With this being the first season in 4 that the Raiders have not been saddled with a #1 overall pick at QB that simply was never going to work to earn his place or the respect of his team, the Raiders can feel liberated that they can stop running in place. However, they brought in Jason Campbell who had his struggles last season leading a 4-12 team. You might say that Campbell was saddled with coaching issues himself, but Tom Cable does not exactly bring confidence that he's long for the Raiders HC position. They may have gone from an A to a C- in this position.

As for Bush/McFadden, each have warts. Bush struggles to stay fit enough to take on a sizable workload. McFadden has struggled to stay healthy and generally translate his game to the NFL. The glass half full thinker says someone has to emerge and the opportunity is ripe now that Justin Fargas has been let go. The glass half empty thinker says 'Justin Fargas?'...neither one could relegate Justin Fargas to bench decoration? That said, both have had moments where they've flashed ability.

I keep on remembering that opening game against SD last season where they made effective use of the running game and pounded the Chargers almost into submission. That to me is the type of team Oakland should aspire to be. In that game - McFadden had 17 carries, Bush 12. A 60/40 ratio seems like it should be par for the course for this situation...but since neither Bush or McFadden have any type of track record to truly base a projected framework for workload distribution.

Bush seems like the logical choice for 1st/2nd down work base on his skillset and size. But McFadden was the #4 overall pick 3 years ago and how much pride can Al Davis swallow if he admits to two consecutive disastrous Top 5 picks. Does McFadden have to show as much to get primary workload responsibility? A precedent has been set before that draft status matters in Oakland.

In the end, I think production will have to win out...but the gateway to opportunity to that production is a complete open book. For an offense that has struggled to put the ball in the end zone, but particularly on the ground (28 rushing TD's in the last 4 seasons), Oakland's running game represents fools gold. The way to cover your bets is to draft both, and yet that may yield below average results even as a combo. The chance for 1 of the two players to emerge seems less than ideal and both seem to have the same chance to do so.

Prediction:

Bush - 212 Carries, 899 Rushing Yards, 5 TD's 25 Receptions 162 Receiving Yards.

McFadden - 154 Carries, 602 Rushing Yards 2 TD's, 42 Receptions 298 Receiving Yards 2 TD's.

 
You guys are crazy if you think DMC won't get significant opportunity to cut into MB's numbers. Throw all the complexity aside and ask yourself a very simple question...

Who does Al Davis like more?

 
LawFitz said:
You guys are crazy if you think DMC won't get significant opportunity to cut into MB's numbers. Throw all the complexity aside and ask yourself a very simple question... Who does Al Davis like more?
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:goodposting: I also think many are too quick to just assume Bush is the superior back given the sample-size. Yes McFadden came with more expectations, but it's still to early to make the assumption that Bush is better, even with McFadden's lack of success thus far.
 
Well, first off, I am on the M Bush Bandwagon.... have been for a few years (since his years at Louisville). Being a SEC fan (and Gamecock), I saw plenty of D McFadden (and his sidekick Felix). McFadden has great burst between the tackles when there is a gap, but will struggle when it takes a moment to develop. He does not have the vision or patience to be effective NFL RB workhorse. I love his speed, but it's straight line speed.

Jason Campbell will give the Offense more life. It was a struggle for them last year with LSU lard D Russell.

Comments from Cable make me believe that old projections of McFadden as a situational role player give him more of a Reggie Bush status. But he followed that up by saying it would be RBBC. Which statement was Coach Speak or him trying to make a retraction after Big Al read his quote?

If Cable gets his way, talent will control who gets the majority of RB touches. IMO, M Bush will get them, but it will not be a consistent basis as clear RB1 role. There will be some RBBC days and some 18+ touch opportunities for M Bush. Overall, it will sprinkle close to a 63/37 split in favor of Bush, but I believe McFadden will be seeing an increase in receiving opportunities to give him the ball in space to use his speed.

Assumptions of M Bush getting 18-20 carries for 10 games and 12-14 for the other 6 games & D McFadden getting 6-8 carries for those same 10 games and 12-14 carries for the other 6 games.

Projection for M Bush

Rushing: 268 carries at 4.25 ypc = 1140 yards Assuming more GL carries than DMcFadden: 8 TD's

Receiving: 21 receptions at 8.4 ypr = 176 yards Fewer Red Zone opportunites for pass receptions: 0 TD

Projection for D McFadden

Rushing: 166 carries at 4.11 ypc = 724 yards Assuming fewer GL carries: 3 TD's

Receiving: 48 receptions at 9.3 ypr = 446 yards More Red Zone opportunites for pass receptions: 5 TD

Overall, the Oak Running game needs to be the focus of the Raiders offense for Bush & McFadden to be valued above their ADP as I have them both projected. Return to the smashmouth football, Big Al!!

 
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I own both in a dynasty, and I honestly think McFadden will be the one to have a better than predicted year. I expect it to look somewhat like the Ravens last year with McFadden playing the Ray Rice role and Bush acting like McGahee and vulturing TDs.

McFadden 220 carries for 1050 yards (4.7 ypc), and 40 receptions for 450 yards, 5 TDs

Bush 110 carries for 500 yards, 10 receptions for 100 yards, 10 TDs

 
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bigmarc27 said:
McFadden 220 carries for 1050 yards (4.7 ypc), and 40 receptions for 450 yards, 5 TDsBush 110 carries for 500 yards, 10 receptions for 100 yards, 10 TDs
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From your lips to FF gods' ears. -- a fellow McFadden dynasty owner
 
I have been targeting Michael Bush in many leagues already this year and I haven't heard anything to indicate I should do otherwise. I truly believe he will get the bulk of the work in the Raiders running game this year. What percentage that "bulk" is going to be is the big question for me. I do not think it will be real close to a 50/50 split, but rather more like a 65/35 split with Bush getting the more of the carries. I think Bush is a fine receiver out of the backfield also. If Cable doesn't get antsy with him too quick, he could put up solid numbers this year as a quality RB2 on many a fantasy team. Also, I am not looking to handcuff McFadden to him. I just don't think (and never will) that McFadden is all that good. I think Oakland made a mistake in drafting him. They already had Bush, whom they got at a great price.

Bush: 225 carries, 1008 yards, 7 TDs, 25 rec, 170 yards, 1 TD

McFadden: 121 carries, 460 yards, 1 TD, 25 rec, 180 yards, 1 TD

 
The recent Michael Bush in-depth analysis by FBG is a bit off. Simply put, Bush has proven breakaways, McFadden much less so.

Bush Career: 218 carries, 5 20+, 3 40+

McFadden Career: 217 carries, 5 20+, 1 40+

From the stats on the Raiders website.

So breakaway isn't such a big positive for McFadden, or a negative for Bush.

 
ChicagoRaider said:
The recent Michael Bush in-depth analysis by FBG is a bit off. Simply put, Bush has proven breakaways, McFadden much less so.

Bush Career: 218 carries, 5 20+, 3 40+

McFadden Career: 217 carries, 5 20+, 1 40+

From the stats on the Raiders website.

So breakaway isn't such a big positive for McFadden, or a negative for Bush.
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Not only that, Wood had just bumped it at 8:57 PM Eastern on June 28th, then the Spotlight hit the website the very next day (less than 24 hours later) and didn't take into account any of the new posts/projections that had been posted since he bumped the thread. Seriously, what gives????? Did Cecil jump the starting gun on this one???? So, the Message Board consensus numbers listed in the Spotlight were really just a combination of the only two that had been posted up until then and they were listed in the Spotlight. Not a very big demographic to be touting a consensus off of. I was really disappointed because I made a point to add my thoughts/projections specifically because Wood had bumped the thread. In my opinion, this one should be pulled from the website and re-evaluated to include the rest of the message board projections. I don't really care if Joe has already linked it in his daily email, it's a joke of a Spotlight for the simple fact that there really is no consensus from the message board.

Rody

 
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Ruffrodys05 said:
ChicagoRaider said:
The recent Michael Bush in-depth analysis by FBG is a bit off. Simply put, Bush has proven breakaways, McFadden much less so.

Bush Career: 218 carries, 5 20+, 3 40+

McFadden Career: 217 carries, 5 20+, 1 40+

From the stats on the Raiders website.

So breakaway isn't such a big positive for McFadden, or a negative for Bush.
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Not only that, Wood had just bumped it at 8:57 PM Eastern on June 28th, then the Spotlight hit the website the very next day (less than 24 hours later) and didn't take into account any of the new posts/projections that had been posted since he bumped the thread. Seriously, what gives????? Did Cecil jump the starting gun on this one???? So, the Message Board consensus numbers listed in the Spotlight were really just a combination of the only two that had been posted up until then and they were listed in the Spotlight. Not a very big demographic to be touting a consensus off of. I was really disappointed because I made a point to add my thoughts/projections specifically because Wood had bumped the thread. In my opinion, this one should be pulled from the website and re-evaluated to include the rest of the message board projections. I don't really care if Joe has already linked it in his daily email, it's a joke of a Spotlight for the simple fact that there really is no consensus from the message board.

Rody
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Rody...the way Spotlights generally work is that we solicit them for a consensus view AT THE TIME OF PUBLICATION. They stay open for discussion, but we have a schedule to keep. Years ago, we would only keep projections open for the week the thread was started, but now I allow them to stay "alive" until the day we're writing the article and finally submitting.As I was formatting Cecil's article for publication and doing all the linking and other goodies, I noticed how minimal the conversation had been. Spotlight threads are odd that way. Some elicit dozens of projections, while others -- even controversial ones -- fall through the cracks. That's just the nature of the beast of having a slow summer time on the boards combined with 15+ Spotlights every week, for 10 consecutive weeks.

To your point, I bumped the thread b/c I thought we needed more discussion. I can very easily go back in and update the "consensus" view when there's merit to it. A thread like this, which unfortunately only had two projections to use at the time of submission, would fit that bill. Now I'm not going to lie, there's no science to that. We don't have the manpower to go back in and update the consensus projections for every Spotlight as stragglers come in. But in cases where I or another staff member actively elicit more response? Consider it done :thumbup:

I will submit a new consensus projection for this next week, let's say next Friday? :thumbup:

So get your projections and debate in by then if you want to be heard.

:yes:

 
Comparisons to other backs aside, here is what M. Bush is:

He's a big-boned bruiser with the heart of a tailback, who wants nothing to do with being a "bruiser". He isn't an Adrian Peterson type that likes to finish off runs. As big as he is, he is shifty and nimble and can quickly bounce toward the way the blocking is leading. He has an uncanny sense of where the hole is and where it will be. Great vision. He will excel in both zone blocking and power blocking systems and this year's o-line will be a mix of both. He needs to improve on his pass blocking, and needs to improve conditioning to stay in on third downs. He has the talent to be a "bellcow", but he subs himself out at times or it looks that way as he looks gassed on the sideline. He is an underrated pass receiver and can move fluidly in the open field. A threat to take it the house on any play. He hasn't yet established that he can be the GL back. Again, he seems to see himself as a tailback.

Comparisons to other backs aside, here is what McFadden is:

A super fast tailback who can turn the corner and be gone in a blink of the eye. He can be very dangerous if he finds the corner. Yet, he lacks vision, and seems to have just one gear. The old saying, "slow to the hole, and quick through it" is an adage he should remember. He has skinny legs and his center of balance is top heavy so he is easy to bring down as opposed to thick legged guys like MJD or Ricky Williams. He also has to improve pass blocking. He is an exceptional receiver and if the Raiders develop plays to the flat and bubble screens, he could be an electric player this year.

Just a hunch, but I think that the Raiders will run more than pass (at least at the start of the year) till Jason Campbell develops chemistry, but Z. Miller will be awesome this year from the get-go. So the Raiders running game will be active. Also just a hunch, but the Raiders FB is not yet on the roster, and I could see Rock Cartwright as the Zach Crockett type GL back.

just my opinion.

 
Lab said:
I think the situation is hard to project because neither has been a true starter very often, and because the Oakland offense has been such a wasteland over the past couple years. To try to figure out what each one might look like as a starter, I took a look at just those handful of games over the past two years where either Bush or DMC received 10+ rushes or 3+ receptions. Here are those numbers:Bush10 games with 10+ carries: 147 attempts for 784 yards and 6 TDs (5.3 yards per rush)4 games with 3+ receptions: 19 receptions for 158 yards and 0 TDs (8.3 yards per reception)DMC9 games with 10+ carries: 122 attempts for 558 yards and 5 TDs (4.6 yards per rush)9 games with 3+ receptions: 31 receptions for 357 yards and 0 TDs (11.5 yards per reception)
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People can sit here and claim one back is superior to the other, but when you look at the actual statistics like this, it's impossible to really make any claim like this. Based on those numbers above, neither is clearly better than the other. Statistics don't lie.As mentioned above, neither has really had a chance to get alot of carries in his career. With the horrid passing game, there were too many 3 and outs and game killing drives over the last couple of years to establish any kind of rhythm whatsover in the run game or offense in general. I think this season will tell us alot more about Bush and DMAC. With a semi-competent QB at the helm who can actually convert on 3rd and long (or 3rd and anything), we'll get a better idea of who the better contributor will be.
 
fantasizing said:
Lab said:
I think the situation is hard to project because neither has been a true starter very often, and because the Oakland offense has been such a wasteland over the past couple years. To try to figure out what each one might look like as a starter, I took a look at just those handful of games over the past two years where either Bush or DMC received 10+ rushes or 3+ receptions. Here are those numbers:Bush10 games with 10+ carries: 147 attempts for 784 yards and 6 TDs (5.3 yards per rush)4 games with 3+ receptions: 19 receptions for 158 yards and 0 TDs (8.3 yards per reception)DMC9 games with 10+ carries: 122 attempts for 558 yards and 5 TDs (4.6 yards per rush)9 games with 3+ receptions: 31 receptions for 357 yards and 0 TDs (11.5 yards per reception)
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People can sit here and claim one back is superior to the other, but when you look at the actual statistics like this, it's impossible to really make any claim like this. Based on those numbers above, neither is clearly better than the other. Statistics don't lie.As mentioned above, neither has really had a chance to get alot of carries in his career. With the horrid passing game, there were too many 3 and outs and game killing drives over the last couple of years to establish any kind of rhythm whatsover in the run game or offense in general. I think this season will tell us alot more about Bush and DMAC. With a semi-competent QB at the helm who can actually convert on 3rd and long (or 3rd and anything), we'll get a better idea of who the better contributor will be.
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Good point. Neither back has been able to consistently find a rhythm. But the blame only begins at the hand of ex-QB Jamarcus Russell. The offensive line has been awful and we finally freed Cornell Green (Bufallo's problem now) and also last year had some key injuries. We have lacked depth, and really the personnel to be versatile in different blocking schemes. Now, with the addition of Valdheer and Bruce Campbell, the Raiders have extra pieces ready to hopefully rotate in and even try some power blocking. As mentioned above, a prepared Jason Campbell is light years better than a dim....possibly high JaMarcus on Sunday. Guys in camp are already getting pumped up because he can actually read defenses and knows how to use his progressions, knows how to use the playbook. Making every skill position player a threat opens the entire offense.But back to Michael Bush and Darren McFadden. Under the direction of a true playcaller like the Raiders new OC, Hue Jackson, and with hopefully an improved or at least deeper line, and smart QB play, the talent is there for both of these RB's to do some damage.They could both be 1000 yard rushers this year. I am not predicting it, but it wouldn't surprise me too much.
 
LawFitz said:
You guys are crazy if you think DMC won't get significant opportunity to cut into MB's numbers. Throw all the complexity aside and ask yourself a very simple question... Who does Al Davis like more?
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I think someone has finally convinced Al that if he wants to win somethings have to change. This team has made some really good moves this offseason. I think we're going to see some changes and I think that starts at the RB. Al's guy may be McFadden, but their best chance to win is with Bush.Bush - 1100 yards rushing and 160 receiving and 11TD'sMcFadden, 550 yards rushing and 400 yards receiving and 4 TD's
 
MrTwo94 said:
Lab said:
bigmarc27 said:
McFadden 220 carries for 1050 yards (4.7 ypc), and 40 receptions for 450 yards, 5 TDs

Bush 110 carries for 500 yards, 10 receptions for 100 yards, 10 TDs
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From your lips to FF gods' ears. -- a fellow McFadden dynasty owner
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But that would require McFadden to actually be good.Jessica Simpson will be invited to Mensa before McFadden puts up 4.77 ypc and 11.25 ypr on over 200 carries and over 30 receptions. I went back 5 or 6 years and couldn't find a back that put up 11.25 ypr on over 30 catches. Have a look yourself. But really the 220 carries/4.8 ypc is the silly part. The guy just can't get it done on 1st and 2nd downs. He's another overdrafted change of pace back. IF he gets a shot to be the workhorse it is solely because Al Davis was the fool who overdrafted him. Bush is the back to own, especially in keeper/dynasty leagues as his rookie contract should be up after this season. Put him on a good team that is devoted to the run and you've got yourself an uberstud.
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:lmao: It's really simple- watch them play over the course of a season or two...game in and game out, and you'll see who the better football player really is. McFadden is unfortunately, not a very good NFL RB...Someone else above mentioned the vision of Bush which is a spot on analysis. He anticipates the hole/cutback and gets much more out of it. McFadden runs for the corner and "hopes" something opens up. Terrible runner really.

 
sentr said:
MrTwo94 said:
Lab said:
bigmarc27 said:
McFadden 220 carries for 1050 yards (4.7 ypc), and 40 receptions for 450 yards, 5 TDs

Bush 110 carries for 500 yards, 10 receptions for 100 yards, 10 TDs
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From your lips to FF gods' ears. -- a fellow McFadden dynasty owner
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But that would require McFadden to actually be good.Jessica Simpson will be invited to Mensa before McFadden puts up 4.77 ypc and 11.25 ypr on over 200 carries and over 30 receptions. I went back 5 or 6 years and couldn't find a back that put up 11.25 ypr on over 30 catches. Have a look yourself. But really the 220 carries/4.8 ypc is the silly part. The guy just can't get it done on 1st and 2nd downs. He's another overdrafted change of pace back. IF he gets a shot to be the workhorse it is solely because Al Davis was the fool who overdrafted him. Bush is the back to own, especially in keeper/dynasty leagues as his rookie contract should be up after this season. Put him on a good team that is devoted to the run and you've got yourself an uberstud.
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:unsure: It's really simple- watch them play over the course of a season or two...game in and game out, and you'll see who the better football player really is. McFadden is unfortunately, not a very good NFL RB...Someone else above mentioned the vision of Bush which is a spot on analysis. He anticipates the hole/cutback and gets much more out of it. McFadden runs for the corner and "hopes" something opens up. Terrible runner really.
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OK. I understand the argument. I guess what I'm struggling to understand is that if McFadden sucks so bad as a RB, then how come he had such a fantastic career in college as a RB ? Is the NFL that much different than college? If that's the case, then there's absolutely no point following college football to scout potential prospects for the NFL. Might as well put all the RB's names into a hat, and draft whichever one you pull out. I guess I still don't understand how someone who had monstrous success in college could absolute suck beyond recognition in the NFL ? It is after the same sport with more or less the same rules. Granted, the players are bigger, faster, and stronger, but they all originated from the same place: college.

 
fantasizing said:
sentr said:
MrTwo94 said:
Lab said:
bigmarc27 said:
McFadden 220 carries for 1050 yards (4.7 ypc), and 40 receptions for 450 yards, 5 TDs

Bush 110 carries for 500 yards, 10 receptions for 100 yards, 10 TDs
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From your lips to FF gods' ears. -- a fellow McFadden dynasty owner
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But that would require McFadden to actually be good.Jessica Simpson will be invited to Mensa before McFadden puts up 4.77 ypc and 11.25 ypr on over 200 carries and over 30 receptions. I went back 5 or 6 years and couldn't find a back that put up 11.25 ypr on over 30 catches. Have a look yourself. But really the 220 carries/4.8 ypc is the silly part. The guy just can't get it done on 1st and 2nd downs. He's another overdrafted change of pace back. IF he gets a shot to be the workhorse it is solely because Al Davis was the fool who overdrafted him. Bush is the back to own, especially in keeper/dynasty leagues as his rookie contract should be up after this season. Put him on a good team that is devoted to the run and you've got yourself an uberstud.
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:pickle: It's really simple- watch them play over the course of a season or two...game in and game out, and you'll see who the better football player really is. McFadden is unfortunately, not a very good NFL RB...Someone else above mentioned the vision of Bush which is a spot on analysis. He anticipates the hole/cutback and gets much more out of it. McFadden runs for the corner and "hopes" something opens up. Terrible runner really.
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OK. I understand the argument. I guess what I'm struggling to understand is that if McFadden sucks so bad as a RB, then how come he had such a fantastic career in college as a RB ? Is the NFL that much different than college? If that's the case, then there's absolutely no point following college football to scout potential prospects for the NFL. Might as well put all the RB's names into a hat, and draft whichever one you pull out. I guess I still don't understand how someone who had monstrous success in college could absolute suck beyond recognition in the NFL ? It is after the same sport with more or less the same rules. Granted, the players are bigger, faster, and stronger, but they all originated from the same place: college.
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To be fair McFadden has been injured for most of his brief career. A small sample size puts emphasis on the negatives. If he can stay healthy, he can be everything he was in college. His last year at Arkansas, rushed for 1800 yards, you can't do that in the SEC if you suck like some people are saying. He is not as good as advertised based on his #4 draft status, but he is much better than some here will tell you.
 
I think the Raiders should start Bush and bring McFadden of the bench. I would run Bush the first 3 quarters pounding the defense up the middle and softening them up then once the defense was softened up bring in McFadden and have him run wild in the 4th.

Bush: 275 attempts, 1237 yards, 9 rushing TD's - 25 receptions, 155 yards, 1 receiving TD's = Total: 1392 yards and 10 TD's

McFadden: 175 attempts, 717 yards, 3 rushing TD's - 41 receptions, 480 yards, 3 TD's = Total: 1197 yards and 6 TD's

 
fantasizing said:
OK. I understand the argument. I guess what I'm struggling to understand is that if McFadden sucks so bad as a RB, then how come he had such a fantastic career in college as a RB ? Is the NFL that much different than college? If that's the case, then there's absolutely no point following college football to scout potential prospects for the NFL. Might as well put all the RB's names into a hat, and draft whichever one you pull out. I guess I still don't understand how someone who had monstrous success in college could absolute suck beyond recognition in the NFL ? It is after the same sport with more or less the same rules. Granted, the players are bigger, faster, and stronger, but they all originated from the same place: college.
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Just like in any career, or sport, there are cases when the Peter Principle rears its ugly head, and people can't take their talent to the next level. Something to consider is that it's not just that players are bigger, faster, and stronger--it's that EVERY player is bigger, faster, and stronger. Consider how many college players there are. How many carve out NFL careers? It seems like a lot, but it's really a small percentage. NFL players are the best of the best--and you're facing them every game, as opposed to facing college teams that may have 1 or 2 NFL caliber talents. Even in the best conferences, such as the SEC, a star player is competing against Teams Where The Majority Of Players Won't Make it In The NFL. Anyway, busts happen despite successful college careers. Sometimes injury, sometimes ten-cent heads, sometimes just plain suckage. Ask Curtis Enis, Lawrence Phillips, Blair Thomas, Ki-Jana Carter, and Ron Dayne. Happens to offensive players, happens to defensive players. Happens to WRs that suddenly can't get separation from the faster defenders, QBs that can't adjust to the defense's ability to read and react, DBs that are suddenly exposed in coverage against top receivers, LBs that can't get to the ball carrier fast enough to make plays, etc. That being said, scouting isn't useless. You just need to look for different qualities than "he ran for a lot of yards"; you're looking for specific skills that will translate to the pro game in addition to physical talent. There's a mix of both that's necessary to be a star. I'd recommend taking a look at Matt Waldman's Scouting Portfolio, as it's invaluable to learning how to look at college players in a different light. It's too easy to be blinded by their stats or production.
 
I think McFadden might end of being the better value. I recently got him as a RB4 a full 4 rounds after Bush was drafted.

 
whodeywhodey said:
I think McFadden might end of being the better value. I recently got him as a RB4 a full 4 rounds after Bush was drafted.
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Depending on who you got in the round Bush was drafted in and who the other guy the round you drafted McFadden, but I would be that he comes out with the better players. McFadden just isn't all that good...
 
TheFanatic said:
whodeywhodey said:
I think McFadden might end of being the better value. I recently got him as a RB4 a full 4 rounds after Bush was drafted.
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Depending on who you got in the round Bush was drafted in and who the other guy the round you drafted McFadden, but I would be that he comes out with the better players. McFadden just isn't all that good...
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It was actually 3 rounds later that I drafted McFadden. He drafted MBush in round 7, I luckily landed Malcom Floyd a few picks later.In round 10 I took McFadden. He took Britt.I think I did better overall.
 
Bush and his miracle 4.8 YPC was the better runner on the Raiders last year, but in only four of his games did he average more than 3.9 yards a carry (he played all 16 games). In weeks 5-8 while McFadden was out (thanks largely to Justin Fargas and a bush-league O-line), Bush failed to surpass 37 rushing yards even once.

Take away Bush's three best games (307 rushing yards on only 44 carries), all of which came against porous AFC West defenses, and his stats from last year tell a very McFadden-like story. Granted, he will of course play SD, KC and DEN six times this year, and rarely did he receive enough carries to fall into any kind of rhythm last season (with only six games of double-digit carries). Nevertheless, his game log from 2009 screams inconsistency -- just like the rest of his team did.

One more thing: Darren McFadden had 104 carries last year, Bush 123. Very small sample sizes from which to make predictions with any degree of confidence.

Bottom line? I have no idea which back is going to emerge here, and whether either back has stud potential or is due for a season of disappointment. If there was ever a "wait and see" approach to be made with a RBBC, this is the one.

 
dharmapunk said:
Anyone know how long Bush will be out with his broken thumb?
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Nevermind.
ALAMEDA, Calif. (AP) -- Oakland Raiders running back Michael Bush will undergo surgery on his broken left thumb Monday and could be back in time for the season opener.Bush broke the thumb when he was hit on the hand by a helmet on his final carry Saturday night against San Francisco. Coach Tom Cable said Sunday there was a "good chance" Bush would be ready to play Sept. 12 in Tennessee and that he would likely not need a cast on the finger.
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did Bush have surgery, or was it a small procedure? Any update on whether or not this will cost him the starting job. Thanks

 
I don't understand how he could not need a cast... Was a it a hairline fracture? Something doesn't seem right with Cable's quote.

 
LawFitz said:
I don't understand how he could not need a cast... Was a it a hairline fracture? Something doesn't seem right with Cable's quote.
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this is what i am trying to figure out....They say it's broken, or fractured, but he might be OK for week 1. i don't understand totally.
 
eefflrat said:
LawFitz said:
I don't understand how he could not need a cast... Was a it a hairline fracture? Something doesn't seem right with Cable's quote.
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this is what i am trying to figure out....They say it's broken, or fractured, but he might be OK for week 1. i don't understand totally.
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Latest talk is he has a "bennett" fracture. He will miss at least the first couple games and that's assuming he has no complications coming back.Cable is spinning; this injury is a big deal.
 
More info, still nothing concrete ...

Stephanie Bell Blog

Michael Bush leads preseason injuries

http://espn.go.com/sports/fantasy/blog/_/n...season-injuries

Michael Bush, Oakland Raiders: Just when it looked as if Bush might edge out Darren McFadden for the top spot, he suffered a left thumb fracture in the Raiders' third preseason game. While early indications were that Bush was expected to undergo a surgical procedure Monday, coach Tom Cable would neither confirm nor deny on Monday whether that had taken place. According to the San Jose Mercury News, "We are going to adhere to the in-season injury policy," Cable said, "and we're not going to talk about injuries, or where anyone's at, or what's going on with them."

Bush decided to tweet about it Tuesday, however. So we now know he underwent surgery to stabilize a Bennett's fracture. A Bennett's fracture is a break at the base of the first metacarpal, the bone that connects the wrist to the thumb. The break is located where the metacarpal meets the carpal or wrist bones (the carpometacarpal joint). This joint is significant because it has a great deal of mobility, which is needed for pinch and grip.

When treated promptly, this type of injury can have a very good outcome. Surgery to pin the fracture helps ensure proper alignment and allows for earlier range-of-motion exercise. Bone typically takes six weeks to heal, although it can be less in a small bone of the finger or hand. Once Bush's thumb demonstrates good bony healing, he likely will be allowed to return to play, but with some form of protection for the thumb. How cumbersome the protective device is might dictate how well he is able to carry and catch the ball. Although there is no official timetable for Bush's return, there are many variables that could influence it, including the extent of the fracture, how quickly his bone heals and how well the thumb can be protected while still allowing him to function. At this point, he should not be viewed as a lock to start the season.
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turnit643 said:
More info, still nothing concrete ...

Stephanie Bell Blog

Michael Bush leads preseason injuries

http://espn.go.com/sports/fantasy/blog/_/n...season-injuries

Michael Bush, Oakland Raiders: Just when it looked as if Bush might edge out Darren McFadden for the top spot, he suffered a left thumb fracture in the Raiders' third preseason game. While early indications were that Bush was expected to undergo a surgical procedure Monday, coach Tom Cable would neither confirm nor deny on Monday whether that had taken place. According to the San Jose Mercury News, "We are going to adhere to the in-season injury policy," Cable said, "and we're not going to talk about injuries, or where anyone's at, or what's going on with them."

Bush decided to tweet about it Tuesday, however. So we now know he underwent surgery to stabilize a Bennett's fracture. A Bennett's fracture is a break at the base of the first metacarpal, the bone that connects the wrist to the thumb. The break is located where the metacarpal meets the carpal or wrist bones (the carpometacarpal joint). This joint is significant because it has a great deal of mobility, which is needed for pinch and grip.

When treated promptly, this type of injury can have a very good outcome. Surgery to pin the fracture helps ensure proper alignment and allows for earlier range-of-motion exercise. Bone typically takes six weeks to heal, although it can be less in a small bone of the finger or hand. Once Bush's thumb demonstrates good bony healing, he likely will be allowed to return to play, but with some form of protection for the thumb. How cumbersome the protective device is might dictate how well he is able to carry and catch the ball. Although there is no official timetable for Bush's return, there are many variables that could influence it, including the extent of the fracture, how quickly his bone heals and how well the thumb can be protected while still allowing him to function. At this point, he should not be viewed as a lock to start the season.
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Been saying it since the injury was diagnosed as a bennett fracture: this is not a minor injury. At best he'll miss the first two games and if complications arise fumbling and/or add'l missed time will be the likely outcome. The injury is to his left hand and unfortunately, he's left handed.

 
dharmapunk said:
Anyone know how long Bush will be out with his broken thumb?
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Looks week to week still.

>>>12:11 Do you really think bush will play on Sunday?

Tuesday September 7, 2010 12:11 Sergio

12:11 jerrymac: No. Not this soon after surgery.<<<

>>>12:19 Michael Bush - has Cable determined if he will be ready to play Sunday?

Tuesday September 7, 2010 12:19 Jim

12:19 jerrymac: I'm guessing he's determined that he won't and will never say it, taking it all the way to kickoff before he doesn't play.<<

http://www.contracostatimes.com/raiders/ci...?nclick_check=1

This is definitely a set-back, but is it fair to say that the only thing holding Bush's production back is his coaches' willingness to use him? Well Hue Jackson - who was QB coach for Baltimore last year - is now calling the plays.

He had 5.6-6.2 YPC season averages in college. In the pros it's been 4.4 & 4.8 with Russell @ QB. Well Campbell is now QB.

What happens when MBush finally gets 20 carries per game?

The closest I've found:

G# Date Age Tm Opp Result Att Yds Y/A TD

1 2 2008-09-14 24-090 OAK @ KAN W 23-8 16 90 5.63 1

11 16 2008-12-28 24-195 OAK @ TAM W 31-24 27 177 6.56 2

14 2009-12-20 25-187 OAK @ DEN W 20-19 18 133 7.39 1

 
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