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Brent Celek, TE, Philadelphia Eagles (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Brent Celek, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

Player Page Link: Brent Celek Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

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While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

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[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
I expect Celek to be a top 5 TE again as I'm not worried about the switch from McNabb to Kolb.

Due to his inexperience Kolb might even lean more on Celek than McNabb did. And it's no secret that Kolb and Celek have great chemistry.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Celek improve on his 2009 numbers. But at least they should remain stable.

80 receptions, 980 yards, 8 TDs

 
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Celek is the guy to target because you wont have to start the run of TEs and will still get exceptional production. Celek is the only legimate option the Eagles have in the redzone and i expect his TD total to rise slightly. I may be higher on Celek than the rest because he saved me at the position last year but I think the guy has great potential and could be the most consistent receiving threat on a team that is going to throw the ball a lot.

80-1000-10 I think are attainable numbers for Celek and I am well aware that this would put him in very select company when it comes to Tight Ends reaching these totals.

 
I love the guy, but top five is asking a lot. There's a ton of great receiving talent in Philly now, leaving Celek as, AT BEST, the third option. A healthy Ingram could eat into his catch total a little bit too.

I think he's a rock solid top 10 in fantasy, esp. dynasty, but I don't see a 900 or 1000 yard season.

Something more like 62/800/7 makes sense to me.

 
It's hard to say what kind of connection he has with his new QB but Celek has emerged as one of the top pass catching TE's in the league. I think he'll continue where he left off and have another solid fantasy season.

62 receptions for 690 yards and 6 td's

 
I like Celek, and think he could be a top 5 TE, the only problem is which of these TE's would not be in your top 5? Gates, Finley, Davis, Clark and Witten? To me those guys are the top 5, and i dont see Celek in that tier yet. I do think he and Zack Miller are easily the next best TE's after those 5. I do like Celeks value in redrafts this year as you can probably get him a full round or two later than the other 5 TE's.

70 rec., 889 yards, 6 TD's

 
Hmm, Celek posted 76 - 971 - 8 last season....and....the two games that Kolb started in weeks 2 and 3, Celek had 16 receptions for 208 yards + a TD. 8 receptions for 104 yards in both games while adding a TD in the 2nd game. Celek never had 8 receptions in any other game the rest of the season other than the two games where Kolb was the QB.

I expect Celek to have around the same numbers he did last year, if not a little better with Kolb throwing him the ball. The guys are roommates on the road and great friends. And here's a statistic...In 09', Celek was the 2nd most targeted TE both inside the 10-yard line and inside the 5-yard line.

80 catches - 1,000 yards - 9 TDs

 
Celek was the 2nd option last season, he had more targets than Maclin. Westbrook is gone and I don't expect McCoy to automatically take over the same role and gain all those receptions. I would think Kolb looks for his room mate even more than McNabb did. I don't see him regressing, there is no reason to.

82 rec. 1050 yards 6 TDs.

 
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Go deep said:
I like Celek, and think he could be a top 5 TE, the only problem is which of these TE's would not be in your top 5? Gates, Finley, Davis, Clark and Witten? To me those guys are the top 5, and i dont see Celek in that tier yet. I do think he and Zack Miller are easily the next best TE's after those 5. I do like Celeks value in redrafts this year as you can probably get him a full round or two later than the other 5 TE's.

70 rec., 889 yards, 6 TD's
What happened to Gonzo?
 
Go deep said:
I like Celek, and think he could be a top 5 TE, the only problem is which of these TE's would not be in your top 5? Gates, Finley, Davis, Clark and Witten? To me those guys are the top 5, and i dont see Celek in that tier yet. I do think he and Zack Miller are easily the next best TE's after those 5. I do like Celeks value in redrafts this year as you can probably get him a full round or two later than the other 5 TE's.

70 rec., 889 yards, 6 TD's
What happened to Gonzo?
Actually i have Celek with a redraft score of 38, Miller a 35 and Gonzo a 32, making them the 6th, 7th, and 8th TE's.

 
Go deep said:
I like Celek, and think he could be a top 5 TE, the only problem is which of these TE's would not be in your top 5? Gates, Finley, Davis, Clark and Witten? To me those guys are the top 5, and i dont see Celek in that tier yet. I do think he and Zack Miller are easily the next best TE's after those 5. I do like Celeks value in redrafts this year as you can probably get him a full round or two later than the other 5 TE's.

70 rec., 889 yards, 6 TD's
What happened to Gonzo?
Actually i have Celek with a redraft score of 38, Miller a 35 and Gonzo a 32, making them the 6th, 7th, and 8th TE's.
According to the historical data dominator, Shannon Sharpe is the only tight end to ever have more than five hundred yards or five touchdowns at Tony Gonzalez's age. At this point I think I'd rather have Celek over Gonzalez as well, and I'm a little shocked that I just said that. I'm not particularly sold on Kolb yet or the Eagles offense as a whole but I am a little bullish on Celek's prospects. The one thing Kolb demonstrated in limited action last season was a willingness to target Celek. I could see him repeating last season's numbers, which makes him a pretty good value outside the top 5.75 receptions for 950 yards and 6 touchdowns.

 
Go deep said:
I like Celek, and think he could be a top 5 TE, the only problem is which of these TE's would not be in your top 5? Gates, Finley, Davis, Clark and Witten? To me those guys are the top 5, and i dont see Celek in that tier yet. I do think he and Zack Miller are easily the next best TE's after those 5. I do like Celeks value in redrafts this year as you can probably get him a full round or two later than the other 5 TE's.

70 rec., 889 yards, 6 TD's
What happened to Gonzo?
Actually i have Celek with a redraft score of 38, Miller a 35 and Gonzo a 32, making them the 6th, 7th, and 8th TE's.
According to the historical data dominator, Shannon Sharpe is the only tight end to ever have more than five hundred yards or five touchdowns at Tony Gonzalez's age. At this point I think I'd rather have Celek over Gonzalez as well, and I'm a little shocked that I just said that. I'm not particularly sold on Kolb yet or the Eagles offense as a whole but I am a little bullish on Celek's prospects. The one thing Kolb demonstrated in limited action last season was a willingness to target Celek. I could see him repeating last season's numbers, which makes him a pretty good value outside the top 5.75 receptions for 950 yards and 6 touchdowns.
To win a redraft league you have to draft players that outplay their draft position. Gonzalez has little to no chance of doing so. Celek will get drafted after Gonzalez and has a higher ceiling and similar floor.
 
Go deep said:
I like Celek, and think he could be a top 5 TE, the only problem is which of these TE's would not be in your top 5? Gates, Finley, Davis, Clark and Witten? To me those guys are the top 5, and i dont see Celek in that tier yet. I do think he and Zack Miller are easily the next best TE's after those 5. I do like Celeks value in redrafts this year as you can probably get him a full round or two later than the other 5 TE's.

70 rec., 889 yards, 6 TD's
What happened to Gonzo?
Actually i have Celek with a redraft score of 38, Miller a 35 and Gonzo a 32, making them the 6th, 7th, and 8th TE's.
According to the historical data dominator, Shannon Sharpe is the only tight end to ever have more than five hundred yards or five touchdowns at Tony Gonzalez's age. At this point I think I'd rather have Celek over Gonzalez as well, and I'm a little shocked that I just said that. I'm not particularly sold on Kolb yet or the Eagles offense as a whole but I am a little bullish on Celek's prospects. The one thing Kolb demonstrated in limited action last season was a willingness to target Celek. I could see him repeating last season's numbers, which makes him a pretty good value outside the top 5.75 receptions for 950 yards and 6 touchdowns.
To win a redraft league you have to draft players that outplay their draft position. Gonzalez has little to no chance of doing so. Celek will get drafted after Gonzalez and has a higher ceiling and similar floor.
I disagree that Celek has a higher ceiling and similar floor. Tony Gonzalez is a hall of fame tight end and, in my opinion, the greatest to ever play his position. He could put up a 1000 yard 10 touchdown season and I wouldn't be surprised. Favre proved last year that the rules may be a little different for the all time greats. I like Celek, but I don't see him in the same elite class as a Gonzalez or Gates. I think Celek has a pretty good floor based on his chemistry with Kolb and his role in that offense. Gonzalez, on the other hand, is in the twilight of his career and sooner or later he's going to disappoint his owners. The end is inevitable for Tony G and it's only a question of when not if.
 
I disagree that Celek has a higher ceiling and similar floor. Tony Gonzalez is a hall of fame tight end and, in my opinion, the greatest to ever play his position. He could put up a 1000 yard 10 touchdown season and I wouldn't be surprised. Favre proved last year that the rules may be a little different for the all time greats. I like Celek, but I don't see him in the same elite class as a Gonzalez or Gates. I think Celek has a pretty good floor based on his chemistry with Kolb and his role in that offense. Gonzalez, on the other hand, is in the twilight of his career and sooner or later he's going to disappoint his owners. The end is inevitable for Tony G and it's only a question of when not if.

And alot of people agree with you, that what makes Celek a much better value than Gonzalez.

 
To win a redraft league you have to draft players that outplay their draft position. Gonzalez has little to no chance of doing so. Celek will get drafted after Gonzalez and has a higher ceiling and similar floor.
Fantasyfootball calculator has Celek going almost a full round before Gonzalez (6.4 vs. 7.3). If you want someone at TE who will outperform their draft position, get Miller, Miller, or Keller. If you want to spend a 6th round pick on a TE, get one you are pretty confident will deliver on TE1 numbers.

Both guys have question marks but are pretty safe bets, IMO.

 
To win a redraft league you have to draft players that outplay their draft position. Gonzalez has little to no chance of doing so. Celek will get drafted after Gonzalez and has a higher ceiling and similar floor.
Fantasyfootball calculator has Celek going almost a full round before Gonzalez (6.4 vs. 7.3). If you want someone at TE who will outperform their draft position, get Miller, Miller, or Keller. If you want to spend a 6th round pick on a TE, get one you are pretty confident will deliver on TE1 numbers.

Both guys have question marks but are pretty safe bets, IMO.
My preference right now is KW2

 
To win a redraft league you have to draft players that outplay their draft position. Gonzalez has little to no chance of doing so. Celek will get drafted after Gonzalez and has a higher ceiling and similar floor.
Fantasyfootball calculator has Celek going almost a full round before Gonzalez (6.4 vs. 7.3). If you want someone at TE who will outperform their draft position, get Miller, Miller, or Keller. If you want to spend a 6th round pick on a TE, get one you are pretty confident will deliver on TE1 numbers.

Both guys have question marks but are pretty safe bets, IMO.
My preference right now is KW2
Really? Even though he has had FIVE knee surgeries in the past six offseasons? The latest blurb out of rotoworld says that he has to deal with pain every single day. I'm a Winslow fan too, but I've got to think that having that many procedures on his knees can't be good. I don't generally subscribe to the theory that you should avoid so-called injury prone players, but I think you should pay attention when someone has a chronic condition that is prone to recurrence. But with that being said, I think he's got good prospects for this season if his health isn't an issue.
 
To win a redraft league you have to draft players that outplay their draft position. Gonzalez has little to no chance of doing so. Celek will get drafted after Gonzalez and has a higher ceiling and similar floor.
Fantasyfootball calculator has Celek going almost a full round before Gonzalez (6.4 vs. 7.3). If you want someone at TE who will outperform their draft position, get Miller, Miller, or Keller. If you want to spend a 6th round pick on a TE, get one you are pretty confident will deliver on TE1 numbers.

Both guys have question marks but are pretty safe bets, IMO.
My preference right now is KW2
Really? Even though he has had FIVE knee surgeries in the past six offseasons? The latest blurb out of rotoworld says that he has to deal with pain every single day. I'm a Winslow fan too, but I've got to think that having that many procedures on his knees can't be good. I don't generally subscribe to the theory that you should avoid so-called injury prone players, but I think you should pay attention when someone has a chronic condition that is prone to recurrence. But with that being said, I think he's got good prospects for this season if his health isn't an issue.
He has had to deal with pain every day since the motorcycle accident, but when he is on the field he has still been very productive. His situation this year- young QB, no receivers with any experience- could lead to him leading the league in targets for TEs this year (he was 4th last year). If/when I take him I will be looking to pair him with a Health Miller/Dustin Keller of course but I think a top five finish is in the cards for a health KW2 this year.

 
I prefer Miller to Miller or Miller if I'm going to wait on a TE. That would be the JAC one you can get in basically the last round of a draft.

But, on the topic of Celek, I see some eery similarities to Romo/Witten here. Romo came in to start with one great WR and a TE who is solid at everything. (TO-DJax, Witten-Celek) Romo rooms with Witten (Kolb and Celek room together). Both Romo and Witten were young and had lots of time to build chemistry. (Same with Kolb and Celek).

We all know what a strong connection Romo and Witten have had the past few years, and I think the same sort of thign could be in the near future for our new Philly combo.

70-1000-8 (Celek has been more of a TD threat than Witten)

 

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