Dustin Keller, TE, New York Jets (1 Viewer)

2010 Player Spotlight Series

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Thread Topic: Dustin Keller, TE, New York Jets

Player Page Link: Dustin Keller Player Page

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The best season any TE has had under Brian Shottenheimer in New York was Keller's rookie season. Last year he actually regressed instead of stepping forward. Of course, adding a rookie QB probably contributed to that, but it wasn't that far off of the historical trends for Jet TE's.

I see a slight uptick from Keller's rookie numbers for the season, but not a great gain in production as the offense is still a rushing offense. Keller may get a couple more TD's as well, but I wouldn't be too optimistic there either.

I'm thinking, 52 rec, 580 yds, 4 TD's is a pretty safe starting point. I'd say it could go up as much as 20% if things really click, but could also drop to last year's numbers as well.

I actually think he'll be as fantasy relevant as Edwards or Holmes. I just don't think this year he breaks into te1 territory - likely will when Edwards fails & moves on. Remains to be seen with holmes

50 600 5

I think Keller takes a big step forward this year, as the Jets will allow Sanchez to throw more. I think Keller will start to live up to the expectations from last year. Last year, the Jets were content to play it "close to the vest" to keep their rookie QB from being forced to do too much. This year, I think they start to open up the gameplan a little more...allowing Keller's role to expand (as it did in the 3 playoff games last year, where he had 12 rec for 180 yards and 3 TDs). I'm not going to go crazy and use those 3 games as the baseline, but I do see a bump from last year and even see him bettering his 2008 totals.

I see him teetering into TE1 numbers (albiet at the lower end) - with 55 receptions for 605 yards and 5 TDs. It's not huge, but it is borderline TE1 and I wouldn't be shocked if his totals were even better and he ended up near closer to the middle of the TE1s.

I like his situation a lot. They have more talent at WR to draw away coverage. None of the WRs are great RZ targets. Rex Ryan wants to get him involved and get him a lot of TDs

Link

I will say 65/800/7.

Keller could make the jump into the top 10. Let me explain why I think top ten, and even a top five finish is possible.

The Jets threw very little in Sanchez's rookie year, and for good reason given some of his performances until very late in the season.

The Jets were without a recieving threat out of the backfield after Leon Washington went down. Now the Jets have Tomlinson, and even the rook from USC for that role which should draw some LB coverage away from Keller. The Jets also lacked a good slot WR. Whether they have an answer for the slot WR this year remains a question however.

Some TE's take a couple/three years to come into their own. Celek is an example of that, as are a few other notable TE's. Vernon Davis was in his fourth year when he broke out in 2009.

Cotchery, Edwards, and Holmes after he comes off suspension for week 5 along with Tomlinson gives Sanchez plenty of targets, and a lot of weapons for the defense to address. Keller has the skill set to be a TE1. He may be the best red zone target Sanchez has. He also has enough speed to bust off long plays.

I look for a significant bump. 65 receptions, 780-840 yards, 7 TD's.

thriftyrocker said:

I like his situation a lot. They have more talent at WR to draw away coverage. None of the WRs are great RZ targets. Rex Ryan wants to get him involved and get him a lot of TDs

Link

I will say 65/800/7.

Click to expand...

That's a good article. I looked for the Keller spotlight when that came out. Yeah, some offseason fluff butm they defitinelt had handcuffs on the offense and what Keller could do.

Of course Holmes is also out for the 1st 4 games.....

Imo last years stats have to be the absolute floor if health 45 catches and 522 yards with 3 td's should be cakewalk.

From the article:

Consider the breakdown: According to profootballfocus.com, Keller was thrown to once every 10.3 snaps in the regular season. He was much more involved in the playoffs when he was targeted once every 5.5 snaps. He scored more touchdowns (three) in three playoff games than he did (two) in 16 regular-season games.

So, offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer has added specific wrinkles this offseason to take more advantage of Keller’s skill set.

Let’s take a closer look:

Keller, who had 45 catches for 522 yards last season, will run more option routes from the slot this season. Schottenheimer will give him more freedom to make choices on the fly than in the past. Keller was typically given specific routes that called for few, if any, visual adjustments. (Truth be told, part of that philosophy was tied into Mark Sanchez’s maturation process as well.)

Although Keller ran “PoCo routes” -- which allow a player to run a post or corner route based on the defensive look -- last season, he’ll be given more leeway in 2010.

“You’re always a little bit careful not to give a young player a little bit too much too fast,” Schottenheimer told me. “Dustin is so fast and athletic that him knowing exactly what to do helped him get open (in the last two years) than having to think… Now, there will be a few more things where maybe he’s got the option to maybe turn in or turn out or run out. We’ll use more of those this year than we have in the past. But a lot of it is really just him and Mark being on the same page.”

To that end, Keller has worked with Sanchez to make sure they’re essentially sharing a brain, reading defensive adjustments and making the appropriate route changes if needed. Unlike the old run-and-shoot offense that could theoretically allow a receiver to run as many as five different patterns depending on the defensive look, the Jets’ scheme will likely call for Keller to make one of two choices. The key is for Sanchez and Keller to recognize the change accurately and quickly.

“A lot of stuff happens really fast inside,” Schottenheimer said. “There’s visual breaks and sight adjusts. So you got to really be a bright guy to handle all the things that happen inside.”

I'll say:

63/700/6

I think projections for Dustin Keller should be done in the context of the entire Jets passing game, as well as what other top TEs do relative to their overall team passing stats.

In 2009, these were stats for a random sampling of top TEs and their teams.

Falcons 332/3571/26 - Tony G. 83/867/6 - Tony G. (%) - 25%/24%/23%

Chargers 338/4338/29 - A. Gates 79/1,157/8 - Gates (%) 23%/27%/28%

Eagles 335/4089/27 - B.Celek 76/971/8 - Celek (%) 23%/24%/30%

Jets 210/2380/12 - D.Keller 45/522/2 - Keller (%) 21%/22%/17%

Let's go with the consensus and assume the Jets open up the offense a little but still maintain a run 1st attack. Therefore increase their 2009 completions and yards by 25%, and optimistically give them 50% more TDs.

That results in Jets 2010 passing stats of roughly 263 / 3,000 / 18

Now, assume Keller's "increasing focal point of the Jets' attack" nets him a Tony Gonzalez-like role of 24% share. That would result 63 / 720 / 4 TDs for 2010, using non-trivial increases in both the Jets passing game and Keller's role in it. Definitely achievable given his talent, but I would call it his ceiling given the assumptions required and therefore not worthy of drafting until the TE 12 -15 range.

PhantomJB said:

I think projections for Dustin Keller should be done in the context of the entire Jets passing game, as well as what other top TEs do relative to their overall team passing stats.In 2009, these were stats for a random sampling of top TEs and their teams.Falcons 332/3571/26 - Tony G. 83/867/6 - Tony G. (%) - 25%/24%/23%Chargers 338/4338/29 - A. Gates 79/1,157/8 - Gates (%) 23%/27%/28%Eagles 335/4089/27 - B.Celek 76/971/8 - Celek (%) 23%/24%/30%Jets 210/2380/12 - D.Keller 45/522/2 - Keller (%) 21%/22%/17%Let's go with the consensus and assume the Jets open up the offense a little but still maintain a run 1st attack. Therefore increase their 2009 completions and yards by 25%, and optimistically give them 50% more TDs.That results in Jets 2010 passing stats of roughly 263 / 3,000 / 18Now, assume Keller's "increasing focal point of the Jets' attack" nets him a Tony Gonzalez-like role of 24% share. That would result 63 / 720 / 4 TDs for 2010, using non-trivial increases in both the Jets passing game and Keller's role in it. Definitely achievable given his talent, but I would call it his ceiling given the assumptions required and therefore not worthy of drafting until the TE 12 -15 range.

Click to expand...

On of the challenges of trying to use last years stats and extrapolate into 2010 for Keller (and many TEs, actually) is TDs. For Keller, his number of TDs in '09 seemed to be way too low (especially when you consider he scored 2 during the regular season and 3 in the 3 playoff games). Just as an example, the numbers above (63/720/4) in 2009 would be 96 FP in non-ppr standard scoring CBS league I'm in, which would have put him at TE11. However, if you make the TD number 6 instead of 4, he ends up with 108 FPs - and TE8. To better illustrate the point, the difference in the league I'm referencing between the TE5 (Gonzo) and the TE9 (H. Miller) was only 8 points (just over 1 TD) in 2009. I'm guessing Miller was drafted much later than Gonzo in many drafts (and will be again) - while each is a viable #1TE. I think the same is true of Keller - he isn't going to be the cream of the crop (Gates, VD, Clark, or Finley), but he will likely be a decent, less costly TE1.

DoubleG said:

PhantomJB said:

I think projections for Dustin Keller should be done in the context of the entire Jets passing game, as well as what other top TEs do relative to their overall team passing stats.In 2009, these were stats for a random sampling of top TEs and their teams.Falcons 332/3571/26 - Tony G. 83/867/6 - Tony G. (%) - 25%/24%/23%Chargers 338/4338/29 - A. Gates 79/1,157/8 - Gates (%) 23%/27%/28%Eagles 335/4089/27 - B.Celek 76/971/8 - Celek (%) 23%/24%/30%Jets 210/2380/12 - D.Keller 45/522/2 - Keller (%) 21%/22%/17%Let's go with the consensus and assume the Jets open up the offense a little but still maintain a run 1st attack. Therefore increase their 2009 completions and yards by 25%, and optimistically give them 50% more TDs.That results in Jets 2010 passing stats of roughly 263 / 3,000 / 18Now, assume Keller's "increasing focal point of the Jets' attack" nets him a Tony Gonzalez-like role of 24% share. That would result 63 / 720 / 4 TDs for 2010, using non-trivial increases in both the Jets passing game and Keller's role in it. Definitely achievable given his talent, but I would call it his ceiling given the assumptions required and therefore not worthy of drafting until the TE 12 -15 range.

Click to expand...

On of the challenges of trying to use last years stats and extrapolate into 2010 for Keller (and many TEs, actually) is TDs. For Keller, his number of TDs in '09 seemed to be way too low (especially when you consider he scored 2 during the regular season and 3 in the 3 playoff games). Just as an example, the numbers above (63/720/4) in 2009 would be 96 FP in non-ppr standard scoring CBS league I'm in, which would have put him at TE11. However, if you make the TD number 6 instead of 4, he ends up with 108 FPs - and TE8. To better illustrate the point, the difference in the league I'm referencing between the TE5 (Gonzo) and the TE9 (H. Miller) was only 8 points (just over 1 TD) in 2009. I'm guessing Miller was drafted much later than Gonzo in many drafts (and will be again) - while each is a viable #1TE. I think the same is true of Keller - he isn't going to be the cream of the crop (Gates, VD, Clark, or Finley), but he will likely be a decent, less costly TE1.

Click to expand...

These are all fair points. It very well could be the case that Keller will pick up where he left off with his '09 playoff performance and carry it into 2010 somewhat like Celek did in 08/09. I'm just not in that camp yet.While the Jets may have finally figured out how to use him, it's tough to ignore the 12 regular season games prior which netted him a whopping 33 / 351 / 1. This plus a very average Jets passing attack (even in the playoffs Sanchez only averaged 14 completions/180 yds) has to be factored into the projections to some degree, IMO.I like at least 11-12 guys better whose track record seems more consistent with equal to better talent/situation equations (VD, GAtes, Finley, Clark, Winslow, Tony G., Celek, Daniels, Witten, Z.Miller, Cooley, Shiancoe). AFter that, Keller's upside potential could represent good value.

PhantomJB said:

DoubleG said:

PhantomJB said:

I think projections for Dustin Keller should be done in the context of the entire Jets passing game, as well as what other top TEs do relative to their overall team passing stats.In 2009, these were stats for a random sampling of top TEs and their teams.Falcons 332/3571/26 - Tony G. 83/867/6 - Tony G. (%) - 25%/24%/23%Chargers 338/4338/29 - A. Gates 79/1,157/8 - Gates (%) 23%/27%/28%Eagles 335/4089/27 - B.Celek 76/971/8 - Celek (%) 23%/24%/30%Jets 210/2380/12 - D.Keller 45/522/2 - Keller (%) 21%/22%/17%Let's go with the consensus and assume the Jets open up the offense a little but still maintain a run 1st attack. Therefore increase their 2009 completions and yards by 25%, and optimistically give them 50% more TDs.That results in Jets 2010 passing stats of roughly 263 / 3,000 / 18Now, assume Keller's "increasing focal point of the Jets' attack" nets him a Tony Gonzalez-like role of 24% share. That would result 63 / 720 / 4 TDs for 2010, using non-trivial increases in both the Jets passing game and Keller's role in it. Definitely achievable given his talent, but I would call it his ceiling given the assumptions required and therefore not worthy of drafting until the TE 12 -15 range.

Click to expand...

On of the challenges of trying to use last years stats and extrapolate into 2010 for Keller (and many TEs, actually) is TDs. For Keller, his number of TDs in '09 seemed to be way too low (especially when you consider he scored 2 during the regular season and 3 in the 3 playoff games). Just as an example, the numbers above (63/720/4) in 2009 would be 96 FP in non-ppr standard scoring CBS league I'm in, which would have put him at TE11. However, if you make the TD number 6 instead of 4, he ends up with 108 FPs - and TE8. To better illustrate the point, the difference in the league I'm referencing between the TE5 (Gonzo) and the TE9 (H. Miller) was only 8 points (just over 1 TD) in 2009. I'm guessing Miller was drafted much later than Gonzo in many drafts (and will be again) - while each is a viable #1TE. I think the same is true of Keller - he isn't going to be the cream of the crop (Gates, VD, Clark, or Finley), but he will likely be a decent, less costly TE1.

Click to expand...

These are all fair points. It very well could be the case that Keller will pick up where he left off with his '09 playoff performance and carry it into 2010 somewhat like Celek did in 08/09. I'm just not in that camp yet.While the Jets may have finally figured out how to use him, it's tough to ignore the 12 regular season games prior which netted him a whopping 33 / 351 / 1. This plus a very average Jets passing attack (even in the playoffs Sanchez only averaged 14 completions/180 yds) has to be factored into the projections to some degree, IMO.I like at least 11-12 guys better whose track record seems more consistent with equal to better talent/situation equations (VD, GAtes, Finley, Clark, Winslow, Tony G., Celek, Daniels, Witten, Z.Miller, Cooley, Shiancoe). AFter that, Keller's upside potential could represent good value.

Click to expand...

Oh, I wasn't disagreeing with your assesment or even your projections. More just openning the discussion about TEs and TDs - and how that number specifically can really affect (sometimes drastically) where a TE ends up in the rankings - even if you just adjust the number up or down a few. Your stats just made me think about it, becuase they reminded me of how low Keller's TDs were last year. Witten is another prime example. In the league I was citing he was tied with H. Miller - mainly becuase he had only 2 TDs last season even though he went for 90+ receptions and 1k yards. With TEs who score fewer fantasy points total, the variance the 6 pt TD brings is huge (at least relative to the other positions).

PhantomJB said:

DoubleG said:

PhantomJB said:

I think projections for Dustin Keller should be done in the context of the entire Jets passing game, as well as what other top TEs do relative to their overall team passing stats.In 2009, these were stats for a random sampling of top TEs and their teams.Falcons 332/3571/26 - Tony G. 83/867/6 - Tony G. (%) - 25%/24%/23%Chargers 338/4338/29 - A. Gates 79/1,157/8 - Gates (%) 23%/27%/28%Eagles 335/4089/27 - B.Celek 76/971/8 - Celek (%) 23%/24%/30%Jets 210/2380/12 - D.Keller 45/522/2 - Keller (%) 21%/22%/17%Let's go with the consensus and assume the Jets open up the offense a little but still maintain a run 1st attack. Therefore increase their 2009 completions and yards by 25%, and optimistically give them 50% more TDs.That results in Jets 2010 passing stats of roughly 263 / 3,000 / 18Now, assume Keller's "increasing focal point of the Jets' attack" nets him a Tony Gonzalez-like role of 24% share. That would result 63 / 720 / 4 TDs for 2010, using non-trivial increases in both the Jets passing game and Keller's role in it. Definitely achievable given his talent, but I would call it his ceiling given the assumptions required and therefore not worthy of drafting until the TE 12 -15 range.

Click to expand...

On of the challenges of trying to use last years stats and extrapolate into 2010 for Keller (and many TEs, actually) is TDs. For Keller, his number of TDs in '09 seemed to be way too low (especially when you consider he scored 2 during the regular season and 3 in the 3 playoff games). Just as an example, the numbers above (63/720/4) in 2009 would be 96 FP in non-ppr standard scoring CBS league I'm in, which would have put him at TE11. However, if you make the TD number 6 instead of 4, he ends up with 108 FPs - and TE8. To better illustrate the point, the difference in the league I'm referencing between the TE5 (Gonzo) and the TE9 (H. Miller) was only 8 points (just over 1 TD) in 2009. I'm guessing Miller was drafted much later than Gonzo in many drafts (and will be again) - while each is a viable #1TE. I think the same is true of Keller - he isn't going to be the cream of the crop (Gates, VD, Clark, or Finley), but he will likely be a decent, less costly TE1.

Click to expand...

These are all fair points. It very well could be the case that Keller will pick up where he left off with his '09 playoff performance and carry it into 2010 somewhat like Celek did in 08/09. I'm just not in that camp yet.While the Jets may have finally figured out how to use him, it's tough to ignore the 12 regular season games prior which netted him a whopping 33 / 351 / 1. This plus a very average Jets passing attack (even in the playoffs Sanchez only averaged 14 completions/180 yds) has to be factored into the projections to some degree, IMO.I like at least 11-12 guys better whose track record seems more consistent with equal to better talent/situation equations (VD, GAtes, Finley, Clark, Winslow, Tony G., Celek, Daniels, Witten, Z.Miller, Cooley, Shiancoe). AFter that, Keller's upside potential could represent good value.

Click to expand...

Too much reliance on numbers and trends usually means that projecting a given player's breakout year cannot be done, at least within that method of generating rankings. Ray Rice, S Smith, V Davis all broke the "numbers analysis'" last year. Rice in particular was hotly debated in this forum. I like to monitor other not so measurable trends, like how Keller was sused in the playoffs, a QB with a year under his belt and comments from coaches, like looking for more balance in the offense and expanding a player's role in the offense as OC Schottenhiemer mentioned. They might even use him in the slot, something they never did last year. I'll stand by my projections and even call him a lock for top 10, with a high side of top 5.

It's the TE's 3rd year and Sanchez's 2nd year. I'm going to give a slight up tick for these two reasons alone, they should get a small step forward.

51 receptions for 610 yards and 4 td's

Dustin Keller is a very good NFL TE. He has good athleticism and is capable of producing good fantasy numbers for his owners, but he has not and likely will not receive a steady string of targets playing for the Jets. In his two seasons, he has played every game and averaged only 5 targets and just under 3 catches per game.

The Jets ran and ran and ran some more in 09, but most believe that they will pass a little more often as Sanchez grows more comfortable and learns better to throw the ball away. However, during this off=season they added Santonio Holmes to their solid corp of WRs already on hand, Braylon Edwards and Jericho Cotchery. Their likely stud RB is not much of a receiver, but they have Tomlinson and Rookie Joe McKnight, both capable of catching balls out of the backfield. Even with the potential uptick in passing attempts, I don't see many more coming the way of Dustin Keller.

In his two seasons, even while not missing any games, he has finished as TE #14 and TE #20. Currently, he is being drafted at 162 pverall and TE #14, which is about right.

Dustin Keller 16 gms 80 targets 48 catches 557 yards 11.6 ypc and 4 TDs

I think Keller's an extremely reliable NFL TE. Unfortunately, this team is not the place to get a top FANTASY TE.

With all fo the rushing that the Jets do, and 3 recievers who could all start on practically every team in the NFL, plus a young QB and a receiving back in Tomlinson, I just don't see more than a tiny crack of daylight as Keller's opportunity.

I can't see much more than 70 targets for him, much less the 100 or so required to be a top TE, and with the Jets OLine and Greene, I can't see a lot of redzone TDs either.

45 catches, 500 yards, 4 TDs

last year, the JETS only had 390 pass attemps, and threw to the TE 83 times (21%) which is around the league average.

I think the JETS throw around 460 attempts this year, that would make Keller targets right around 95-100, which could give him 60 rec-650 yds-5 scores.

TaxMan said:

last year, the JETS only had 390 pass attemps, and threw to the TE 83 times (21%) which is around the league average.I think the JETS throw around 460 attempts this year, that would make Keller targets right around 95-100, which could give him 60 rec-650 yds-5 scores.

Click to expand...

How do you see Keller getting that many targets? Almost 25% of the passing game? Cotchery, Holmes (12 games) and Edwards plus lesser receivers plus Tomlinson out of the backfield, plus the times that Sanchez has to run or throw it away, or take a sack. And Keller's still going to get 100 targets? Vincent Jackson, a WR1 with only one other guy as competition for targets (Gates) barely reaches 100 targets a year on a team that has passed 490 times a year over the past 3 years (since Jackson's been a starter).No way a guy who's the 4th, or maybe even 5th, receiving option and on a run-first team sniffs 100 targets.

Instinctive said:

TaxMan said:

last year, the JETS only had 390 pass attemps, and threw to the TE 83 times (21%) which is around the league average.I think the JETS throw around 460 attempts this year, that would make Keller targets right around 95-100, which could give him 60 rec-650 yds-5 scores.

Click to expand...

How do you see Keller getting that many targets? Almost 25% of the passing game? Cotchery, Holmes (12 games) and Edwards plus lesser receivers plus Tomlinson out of the backfield, plus the times that Sanchez has to run or throw it away, or take a sack. And Keller's still going to get 100 targets? Vincent Jackson, a WR1 with only one other guy as competition for targets (Gates) barely reaches 100 targets a year on a team that has passed 490 times a year over the past 3 years (since Jackson's been a starter).No way a guy who's the 4th, or maybe even 5th, receiving option and on a run-first team sniffs 100 targets.

Click to expand...

so are you saying with the addition of Holmes, even with the supposed pass attempt increase by the JETS, Keller will remain at 80 targets which is what he got last year? or maybe lower?league average is 20% target to the TE, and i doubt the JETS even with Holmes goes any lower than that. Keller is a receiving TE, that's what he does, and IMO the addition of Holmes will dillute the Braylon/Cotchery targets moreso than Keller. If the Jets do increase to 460 pass attempts, 20% is 92 targets, and Keller can certainly increase his catch rate to around 65% from 60% last year to catch 60 balls. Heath Miller caught 76 of 98, Zach 66/98 (from Jamarcus).

TaxMan said:

Instinctive said:

TaxMan said:

last year, the JETS only had 390 pass attemps, and threw to the TE 83 times (21%) which is around the league average.I think the JETS throw around 460 attempts this year, that would make Keller targets right around 95-100, which could give him 60 rec-650 yds-5 scores.

Click to expand...

How do you see Keller getting that many targets? Almost 25% of the passing game? Cotchery, Holmes (12 games) and Edwards plus lesser receivers plus Tomlinson out of the backfield, plus the times that Sanchez has to run or throw it away, or take a sack. And Keller's still going to get 100 targets? Vincent Jackson, a WR1 with only one other guy as competition for targets (Gates) barely reaches 100 targets a year on a team that has passed 490 times a year over the past 3 years (since Jackson's been a starter).No way a guy who's the 4th, or maybe even 5th, receiving option and on a run-first team sniffs 100 targets.

Click to expand...

so are you saying with the addition of Holmes, even with the supposed pass attempt increase by the JETS, Keller will remain at 80 targets which is what he got last year? or maybe lower?league average is 20% target to the TE, and i doubt the JETS even with Holmes goes any lower than that. Keller is a receiving TE, that's what he does, and IMO the addition of Holmes will dillute the Braylon/Cotchery targets moreso than Keller. If the Jets do increase to 460 pass attempts, 20% is 92 targets, and Keller can certainly increase his catch rate to around 65% from 60% last year to catch 60 balls. Heath Miller caught 76 of 98, Zach 66/98 (from Jamarcus).

Click to expand...

Keller won't get ALL the TE targets, and many of the throws that go to TEs go to wheeling RBs too. With Tomlinson's receiving ability, I think Keller's in line for practically the same season

Instinctive said:

TaxMan said:

Instinctive said:

TaxMan said:

last year, the JETS only had 390 pass attemps, and threw to the TE 83 times (21%) which is around the league average.I think the JETS throw around 460 attempts this year, that would make Keller targets right around 95-100, which could give him 60 rec-650 yds-5 scores.

Click to expand...

How do you see Keller getting that many targets? Almost 25% of the passing game? Cotchery, Holmes (12 games) and Edwards plus lesser receivers plus Tomlinson out of the backfield, plus the times that Sanchez has to run or throw it away, or take a sack. And Keller's still going to get 100 targets? Vincent Jackson, a WR1 with only one other guy as competition for targets (Gates) barely reaches 100 targets a year on a team that has passed 490 times a year over the past 3 years (since Jackson's been a starter).No way a guy who's the 4th, or maybe even 5th, receiving option and on a run-first team sniffs 100 targets.

Click to expand...

so are you saying with the addition of Holmes, even with the supposed pass attempt increase by the JETS, Keller will remain at 80 targets which is what he got last year? or maybe lower?league average is 20% target to the TE, and i doubt the JETS even with Holmes goes any lower than that. Keller is a receiving TE, that's what he does, and IMO the addition of Holmes will dillute the Braylon/Cotchery targets moreso than Keller. If the Jets do increase to 460 pass attempts, 20% is 92 targets, and Keller can certainly increase his catch rate to around 65% from 60% last year to catch 60 balls. Heath Miller caught 76 of 98, Zach 66/98 (from Jamarcus).

Click to expand...

Keller won't get ALL the TE targets, and many of the throws that go to TEs go to wheeling RBs too. With Tomlinson's receiving ability, I think Keller's in line for practically the same season

Click to expand...

Keller got 81 of the 83 TE targets last year, so you're right he won't get all of them. So you're saying the assumed ~70 pass attempts will only go to RBs and WRs, but none to TE, ok.

I'm also saying that the best season any TE has ever had under this offensive coordinator is 48-535-3

It's not that it couldn't happen exactly as you say, it's just that I think the chance sof it aren't that high, and that there are similarly priced guys with better chances to do as much ro better, and cheaper guys with as much chance to hit the upside you're predicting. (i.e. Zach Miller JAC)

Instinctive said:

I'm also saying that the best season any TE has ever had under this offensive coordinator is 48-535-3

Click to expand...

That's a whacky stat.... He's only been officially an OC while with the Jets so, I'm sure you're going to ignore anything that happened in SD or KC.....With the Jets he wasn't really working with a top flight TE and now is Keller's 3rd year and 1st time with the same QB!!While thinking this through I might even spin this another way and say, wow Schott Jr cut his teeth in 2 offenses with 2 of the best statistical TE"s in the league, just maybe he knows how to run his offense though the TE moreso then your average OC.

Instinctive said:

I'm also saying that the best season any TE has ever had under this offensive coordinator is 48-535-3It's not that it couldn't happen exactly as you say, it's just that I think the chance sof it aren't that high, and that there are similarly priced guys with better chances to do as much ro better, and cheaper guys with as much chance to hit the upside you're predicting. (i.e. Zach Miller JAC)

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In Fantasy speak, this is pretty simple to me.... Once you get past the 1st 2 tiers or so of TE's in a 10-12 team league you might as well just sit back and wait if you think this tier is that big....I'm pretty sure you're talking the wrong Zach Miller there though.

Reaper said:

Instinctive said:

I'm also saying that the best season any TE has ever had under this offensive coordinator is 48-535-3It's not that it couldn't happen exactly as you say, it's just that I think the chance sof it aren't that high, and that there are similarly priced guys with better chances to do as much ro better, and cheaper guys with as much chance to hit the upside you're predicting. (i.e. Zach Miller JAC)

Click to expand...

In Fantasy speak, this is pretty simple to me.... Once you get past the 1st 2 tiers or so of TE's in a 10-12 team league you might as well just sit back and wait if you think this tier is that big....I'm pretty sure you're talking the wrong Zach Miller there though.

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The other one costs as much or more than Keller, IIRC. And I agree, if you miss out on Gates, Davis, Finley, Celek, Witten, Clark...everyone else is about he same-a disadvantage. lol.

Instinctive said:

Reaper said:

Instinctive said:

I'm also saying that the best season any TE has ever had under this offensive coordinator is 48-535-3It's not that it couldn't happen exactly as you say, it's just that I think the chance sof it aren't that high, and that there are similarly priced guys with better chances to do as much ro better, and cheaper guys with as much chance to hit the upside you're predicting. (i.e. Zach Miller JAC)

Click to expand...

In Fantasy speak, this is pretty simple to me.... Once you get past the 1st 2 tiers or so of TE's in a 10-12 team league you might as well just sit back and wait if you think this tier is that big....I'm pretty sure you're talking the wrong Zach Miller there though.

Click to expand...

The other one costs as much or more than Keller, IIRC. And I agree, if you miss out on Gates, Davis, Finley, Celek, Witten, Clark...everyone else is about he same-a disadvantage. lol.

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The Jax Zach Miller is coming off an injury and might be still walking in a protective boot.. FBG ranking has him at TE29.

Reaper said:

Instinctive said:

Reaper said:

Instinctive said:

I'm also saying that the best season any TE has ever had under this offensive coordinator is 48-535-3It's not that it couldn't happen exactly as you say, it's just that I think the chance sof it aren't that high, and that there are similarly priced guys with better chances to do as much ro better, and cheaper guys with as much chance to hit the upside you're predicting. (i.e. Zach Miller JAC)

Click to expand...

In Fantasy speak, this is pretty simple to me.... Once you get past the 1st 2 tiers or so of TE's in a 10-12 team league you might as well just sit back and wait if you think this tier is that big....I'm pretty sure you're talking the wrong Zach Miller there though.

Click to expand...

The other one costs as much or more than Keller, IIRC. And I agree, if you miss out on Gates, Davis, Finley, Celek, Witten, Clark...everyone else is about he same-a disadvantage. lol.

Click to expand...

The Jax Zach Miller is coming off an injury and might be still walking in a protective boot.. FBG ranking has him at TE29.

Click to expand...

And last year FBG had Vernon Davis as TE18 and Finley wasn't in the top 21......................