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Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams

Player Page Link: Steven Jackson Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

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Steven Jackson will just about deserve a medal if he retires a Ram and running behind that horrible offense line. Jackson is one of the most talented NFL RB's but he plays on a team that is almost playing from behnd really limiting the amount of overall rushing Td's he's been allowed to get as they're trying to pass the ball late in the games. Steven Jackson also is a RB that has a very difficult time staying healthy 16 games, so drafting him as a RB 1 makes it difficult as you can probably count on him not being in about 3 to 4 games and many other games where you're trying to figure out his game time decision.

1150 yards rushing, 6 td's 55 receptions for 450 yards and 3 td's

 
Steven Jackson is a beast. But with that being said, this is a guy that I'm not going to be drafting this year unless he really falls in the draft. He's always gotten a bad rap because of his injury history and bad team. But after seeing him produce in 2007 when they were signing offensive lineman off the street, I didn't really care. I once saw SJax get tackled by all eleven defenders before going down, and then kill Chuck Norris. If he stays healthy, he's probably gonna get 350+ touches for 1600+yards and around 7 touchdowns. But I have to admit, I'm scared off by the bad back. I don't downgrade players just because they got injured in the past, unless it's a chronic or recurring condition. I think if you combine the fact that he's got the back problem with the number of years that he's been in the league, I think there's a reasonable chance he could enter the downslope of his career as early as this year. And I don't see the upside to significantly outweigh that risk as a top 20 pick.

 
The Rams have also selected an offensive lineman with the #2 and #33 overall picks the past two years and signed the best C available last year. If their offensive line is healthy it should/could be considerable better than it has been the past 2 years. A healthy and productive oline could mean a 4.8 y/c average for a guy like S Jax.

 
baconisgood said:
The Rams have also selected an offensive lineman with the #2 and #33 overall picks the past two years and signed the best C available last year. If their offensive line is healthy it should/could be considerable better than it has been the past 2 years. A healthy and productive oline could mean a 4.8 y/c average for a guy like S Jax.
Click to expand...
Actually, the line was a decent run blocking unit last season. In that particular aspect, people gave his oline far less credit than it deserved in terms of opening up some holes for him. It could be better than it was last season, but I don't think the difference will be drastic.
 
It would be difficult for me to spend a high enough draft pick that would be required to get Steven Jackson on my team for 2010. There just seem to be too many ? marks. His back surgery, the woeful offense in STL with lack of TD opportunities, etc. If the guy can stay healthy for the whole season and he gets some decent blocking and decent play from Bradford and the passing game..SJAX could win some fantasy championships for people. He just seems a bit too risky for me. That being said, the guy is tough and he'll get out there and play if he can.

He got 375 touches last season for 1,738 total yards, but only had 4 total TDs(all rushing).

You have to figure the TD number will go back up this year, but I wouldn't be confident projecting double digit TDs for SJAX. So, I'll project something along these lines for SJAX:

330 - 1,452 - 5 ... (4.4 YPC)

50 - 350 - 1 ... (7.0 YPR)

1,802 total yards, 5 total TDs

 
The shelf life for RB's in the NFL is notoriously short. But the shelf like for big RB's in the NFL is notoriously shorter. Not only that, but for as effective as they can be...they can also be quite fragile. And in the case of Stephen Jackson, the most durable season he's had in 4 years resulted in back surgery. Like Ross Tucker said, there is no such thing as minor back surgery and the fact that it occurred 3 months into the off-season meant that there was a hope it would self-correct with rehab and rest.

Jackson is still relatively young (he'll be 27 this season). But for the last 4 years, the Rams have given the ball to Jackson an average of 21.1 times/game. Couple that with another 4 receptions/game and you have 25 touches/game over a 4 year stretch for a big RB. A 4 year stretch where he was pretty much forced to make chicken salad throughout the duration. It's a shame for Jackson because I think the Rams are finally on their way to climbing their way out of the abysmal swamp of crap football they've been in these last 3 years. But I feel like Jackson is more of a relic of that era rather than a building block for this new one.

Normally, I'm a big stat guy and will rely on numbers and simple logic to state my case. But I have a gut feel on Jackson that he's going to be 2010's Clinton Portis. A player who even if he stays healthy, will start to see a significant decline in his production. If I pride myself on being an astute fantasy player who relies on trends to dictate strategy, it's difficult to ignore the even shorter shelf life of big RB's in the NFL. That's why I would sell high on Jackson and give him a 3rd round grade.

Big Backs

Jamal Lewis - during his 26 & 27 year old seasons, he averaged 3.5 YPC. At 28, he had his FU season with Cleveland but was done shortly thereafter.

Eddie George - could day he had his best season at 27 with 1509 yards, but it took him a whopping 403 carries to get there for a 3.7 YPC, a career low. He never exceeded 3.4 YPC after that.

Rudi Johnson - Had the last of his very good seasons at 27 with a 341/1309/12 mark. But his YPC dropped to 3.8, down from 4.0 & 4.3 the seasons before. He never made an impact after this.

Jerome Bettis - Had one stellar season after 27, but his YPC which had been at a career mark of 4.1 up until this year, dropped to 3.6. Aside from a injury shortened season when he was 29 when his YPC was a career best 4.8, Bettis muddled around the 3.6-3.7 mark (if not below for the remainder of his career).

...you can go back to the days of big backs like Earl Campbell, Christian Okoye, Gerald Riggs and James Wilder to see these declines as well. It's possible that Jackson has more gas left in the tank. But I'm going to let someone else find out (whether it's the hard way or not).

Prediction: 277 Carries, 1041 Rushing Yards 6 TD's; 40 Receptions 257 Receiving Yards

 
TheDirtyWord said:
The shelf life for RB's in the NFL is notoriously short. But the shelf like for big RB's in the NFL is notoriously shorter. Not only that, but for as effective as they can be...they can also be quite fragile. And in the case of Stephen Jackson, the most durable season he's had in 4 years resulted in back surgery. Like Ross Tucker said, there is no such thing as minor back surgery and the fact that it occurred 3 months into the off-season meant that there was a hope it would self-correct with rehab and rest.

Jackson is still relatively young (he'll be 27 this season). But for the last 4 years, the Rams have given the ball to Jackson an average of 21.1 times/game. Couple that with another 4 receptions/game and you have 25 touches/game over a 4 year stretch for a big RB. A 4 year stretch where he was pretty much forced to make chicken salad throughout the duration. It's a shame for Jackson because I think the Rams are finally on their way to climbing their way out of the abysmal swamp of crap football they've been in these last 3 years. But I feel like Jackson is more of a relic of that era rather than a building block for this new one.

Normally, I'm a big stat guy and will rely on numbers and simple logic to state my case. But I have a gut feel on Jackson that he's going to be 2010's Clinton Portis. A player who even if he stays healthy, will start to see a significant decline in his production. If I pride myself on being an astute fantasy player who relies on trends to dictate strategy, it's difficult to ignore the even shorter shelf life of big RB's in the NFL. That's why I would sell high on Jackson and give him a 3rd round grade.

Big Backs

Jamal Lewis - during his 26 & 27 year old seasons, he averaged 3.5 YPC. At 28, he had his FU season with Cleveland but was done shortly thereafter.

Eddie George - could day he had his best season at 27 with 1509 yards, but it took him a whopping 403 carries to get there for a 3.7 YPC, a career low. He never exceeded 3.4 YPC after that.

Rudi Johnson - Had the last of his very good seasons at 27 with a 341/1309/12 mark. But his YPC dropped to 3.8, down from 4.0 & 4.3 the seasons before. He never made an impact after this.

Jerome Bettis - Had one stellar season after 27, but his YPC which had been at a career mark of 4.1 up until this year, dropped to 3.6. Aside from a injury shortened season when he was 29 when his YPC was a career best 4.8, Bettis muddled around the 3.6-3.7 mark (if not below for the remainder of his career).

...you can go back to the days of big backs like Earl Campbell, Christian Okoye, Gerald Riggs and James Wilder to see these declines as well. It's possible that Jackson has more gas left in the tank. But I'm going to let someone else find out (whether it's the hard way or not).

Prediction: 277 Carries, 1041 Rushing Yards 6 TD's; 40 Receptions 257 Receiving Yards
Click to expand...
I think you are confusing your "big back declining theory" with RBs past their prime all together.RBs in the NFL usually peak at 25 to 27, regardless if they are big or small.

Look at the top 100 fantasy seasons by a RB in the last 50 years (i.e. when a RB peaked in their career). Link

The average age of those RBs was 25.7 years old.

 
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fridayfrenzy said:
TheDirtyWord said:
The shelf life for RB's in the NFL is notoriously short. But the shelf like for big RB's in the NFL is notoriously shorter. Not only that, but for as effective as they can be...they can also be quite fragile. And in the case of Stephen Jackson, the most durable season he's had in 4 years resulted in back surgery. Like Ross Tucker said, there is no such thing as minor back surgery and the fact that it occurred 3 months into the off-season meant that there was a hope it would self-correct with rehab and rest.

Jackson is still relatively young (he'll be 27 this season). But for the last 4 years, the Rams have given the ball to Jackson an average of 21.1 times/game. Couple that with another 4 receptions/game and you have 25 touches/game over a 4 year stretch for a big RB. A 4 year stretch where he was pretty much forced to make chicken salad throughout the duration. It's a shame for Jackson because I think the Rams are finally on their way to climbing their way out of the abysmal swamp of crap football they've been in these last 3 years. But I feel like Jackson is more of a relic of that era rather than a building block for this new one.

Normally, I'm a big stat guy and will rely on numbers and simple logic to state my case. But I have a gut feel on Jackson that he's going to be 2010's Clinton Portis. A player who even if he stays healthy, will start to see a significant decline in his production. If I pride myself on being an astute fantasy player who relies on trends to dictate strategy, it's difficult to ignore the even shorter shelf life of big RB's in the NFL. That's why I would sell high on Jackson and give him a 3rd round grade.

Big Backs

Jamal Lewis - during his 26 & 27 year old seasons, he averaged 3.5 YPC. At 28, he had his FU season with Cleveland but was done shortly thereafter.

Eddie George - could day he had his best season at 27 with 1509 yards, but it took him a whopping 403 carries to get there for a 3.7 YPC, a career low. He never exceeded 3.4 YPC after that.

Rudi Johnson - Had the last of his very good seasons at 27 with a 341/1309/12 mark. But his YPC dropped to 3.8, down from 4.0 & 4.3 the seasons before. He never made an impact after this.

Jerome Bettis - Had one stellar season after 27, but his YPC which had been at a career mark of 4.1 up until this year, dropped to 3.6. Aside from a injury shortened season when he was 29 when his YPC was a career best 4.8, Bettis muddled around the 3.6-3.7 mark (if not below for the remainder of his career).

...you can go back to the days of big backs like Earl Campbell, Christian Okoye, Gerald Riggs and James Wilder to see these declines as well. It's possible that Jackson has more gas left in the tank. But I'm going to let someone else find out (whether it's the hard way or not).

Prediction: 277 Carries, 1041 Rushing Yards 6 TD's; 40 Receptions 257 Receiving Yards
Click to expand...
I think you are confusing your "big back declining theory" with RBs past their prime all together.RBs in the NFL usually peak at 25 to 27, regardless if they are big or small.

Look at the top 100 fantasy seasons by a RB in the last 50 years (i.e. when a RB peaked in their career). Link

The average age of those RBs was 25.7 years old.
Click to expand...
Not many RB's though are 6'2 240. Bigger they are, the harder they fall theory. Jackson's has had significant injury issues and I'd rather avoid him this year at the risk of him putting together another RB1 season rather than potentially get stuck with him and enter Clinton Portis trade value territory. Based on the information I'm placing a priority on...this is the year to avoid him.
 
Rams let their best run blocker walk (Incognito)

Rams traded their starting RT/LT (Barron)

Rams current starting LT has broken foot, concussion history and very little experience (Smith)

Rams best guard has been either injured or completely invisable (Bell)

Rams are counting on a rookie, second round draft pick to start at tackle

The only good OL spot is center and that Jason Brown. The QB position is not good for a fantasy RB. The WR's will not take pressure off anyone. The box will be stacked and at this stage of Jackson's career I don't think he can make it without injury. I'm staying away of Jackson.

 
I wouldn't worry too much about Jackson's low TD total.

RBs that had 350 touches and 5 or fewer TD in Year X+1:

Stephen Davis 01 5 TD, 02 8 TD

Eddie George 01 5 TD, 02 14 TD

Curtis Martin 99 5 TD, 00 11 TD

Willis McGahee 05 5 TD, 06 6 TD

Jerome Bettis 94 4 TD, 95 (injured) 3 TD

Barry Sanders 98 4 TD, 95 8 TD

Curtis Martin 03 2 TD, 04 14 TD

 
David Yudkin said:
I wouldn't worry too much about Jackson's low TD total. RBs that had 350 touches and 5 or fewer TD in Year X+1:Stephen Davis 01 5 TD, 02 8 TDEddie George 01 5 TD, 02 14 TDCurtis Martin 99 5 TD, 00 11 TDWillis McGahee 05 5 TD, 06 6 TDJerome Bettis 94 4 TD, 95 (injured) 3 TDBarry Sanders 98 4 TD, 95 8 TDCurtis Martin 03 2 TD, 04 14 TD
Click to expand...
Thomas Jones also just missed the cutoff, with 2 TDs on 340 touches in '07 and 15 TDs in '08.
 
MrTwo94 said:
David Yudkin said:
I wouldn't worry too much about Jackson's low TD total. RBs that had 350 touches and 5 or fewer TD in Year X+1:Stephen Davis 01 5 TD, 02 8 TDEddie George 01 5 TD, 02 14 TDCurtis Martin 99 5 TD, 00 11 TDWillis McGahee 05 5 TD, 06 6 TDJerome Bettis 94 4 TD, 95 (injured) 3 TDBarry Sanders 98 4 TD, 95 8 TDCurtis Martin 03 2 TD, 04 14 TD
Click to expand...
It is likely that these guys were not on dismal offenses that only scored 4 rushing TD's as a team. They likely had a guy sneaking a few TD's from them and/or their offense got better the next year. As much as I've loved watching SJax over the years, I just think he's hamstrung as long as he's on the Rams. He's had 6, 8 , 4 in the last 3 years and the Rams aren't getting better this year. The guy is awesome but the upside just isn't there.
Click to expand...
Epecting the Rams to score only 4 rushing TDs again is a losing proposition. Only 2 teams in the last 9 years have been as bad as St. Louis was at scoring rushing TDs. Frank Gore is a pretty good comparison for being on an offensively inept team before last season. And he was getting between 5-8 rushing TDs with 1or 2 receiving TDs as well. That's a pretty good baseline to expect if Steven Jackson has another typical season by his standards. And if the passing game miraculously is effective(see Cleveland in 2007), then he has potential to score more.
 
MrTwo94 said:
David Yudkin said:
I wouldn't worry too much about Jackson's low TD total. RBs that had 350 touches and 5 or fewer TD in Year X+1:Stephen Davis 01 5 TD, 02 8 TDEddie George 01 5 TD, 02 14 TDCurtis Martin 99 5 TD, 00 11 TDWillis McGahee 05 5 TD, 06 6 TDJerome Bettis 94 4 TD, 95 (injured) 3 TDBarry Sanders 98 4 TD, 95 8 TDCurtis Martin 03 2 TD, 04 14 TD
Click to expand...
It is likely that these guys were not on dismal offenses that only scored 4 rushing TD's as a team. They likely had a guy sneaking a few TD's from them and/or their offense got better the next year. As much as I've loved watching SJax over the years, I just think he's hamstrung as long as he's on the Rams. He's had 6, 8 , 4 in the last 3 years and the Rams aren't getting better this year. The guy is awesome but the upside just isn't there.
Click to expand...
Last year they had significant injuries to both WRs, QB and LT- The Rams could get better simply by being less beat up.
 
Team ROFLCOPTERS said:
Rams let their best run blocker walk (Incognito)Rams current starting LT has broken foot, concussion history and very little experience (Smith)Rams best guard has been either injured or completely invisable (Bell)Rams are counting on a rookie, second round draft pick to start at tackleThe only good OL spot is center and that Jason Brown. The QB position is not good for a fantasy RB. The WR's will not take pressure off anyone.
Click to expand...
Rams let their best run blocker walk (Incognito)
Click to expand...
Incognito may have been their best run blocker but he was a massive penalty accumulator. Will probably hurt Jackson's total yards but his overall contribution is replaceable.
Rams traded their starting RT/LT (Barron)
Click to expand...
Profootballfocus rates Barron as one of the bottom 10 Tackles last season- only slightly better than Levi Brown. Jason Smith was significantly better as a rookie.
Rams are counting on a rookie, second round draft pick to start at tackle
Click to expand...
A high 2nd round tackle is an odds on favorite to be better than Barron was last season- even as a rookie.
I actually think Laurent Robinson and Avery are decent NFL WR's, but not exactly the difference makers it would take (especially when combined with a rookie QB) to take pressure off of Jackson
Click to expand...
Its not just that Robinson and Avery could be good its that their next best 4 options had a combined 20 NFL receptions going into last season- they had almost zero experience- that drop off is much bigger than for most teams between their #1-2 to their 3-5 guys.
 
TheDirtyWord said:
fridayfrenzy said:
TheDirtyWord said:
The shelf life for RB's in the NFL is notoriously short. But the shelf like for big RB's in the NFL is notoriously shorter. Not only that, but for as effective as they can be...they can also be quite fragile. And in the case of Stephen Jackson, the most durable season he's had in 4 years resulted in back surgery. Like Ross Tucker said, there is no such thing as minor back surgery and the fact that it occurred 3 months into the off-season meant that there was a hope it would self-correct with rehab and rest.

Jackson is still relatively young (he'll be 27 this season). But for the last 4 years, the Rams have given the ball to Jackson an average of 21.1 times/game. Couple that with another 4 receptions/game and you have 25 touches/game over a 4 year stretch for a big RB. A 4 year stretch where he was pretty much forced to make chicken salad throughout the duration. It's a shame for Jackson because I think the Rams are finally on their way to climbing their way out of the abysmal swamp of crap football they've been in these last 3 years. But I feel like Jackson is more of a relic of that era rather than a building block for this new one.

Normally, I'm a big stat guy and will rely on numbers and simple logic to state my case. But I have a gut feel on Jackson that he's going to be 2010's Clinton Portis. A player who even if he stays healthy, will start to see a significant decline in his production. If I pride myself on being an astute fantasy player who relies on trends to dictate strategy, it's difficult to ignore the even shorter shelf life of big RB's in the NFL. That's why I would sell high on Jackson and give him a 3rd round grade.

Big Backs

Jamal Lewis - during his 26 & 27 year old seasons, he averaged 3.5 YPC. At 28, he had his FU season with Cleveland but was done shortly thereafter.

Eddie George - could day he had his best season at 27 with 1509 yards, but it took him a whopping 403 carries to get there for a 3.7 YPC, a career low. He never exceeded 3.4 YPC after that.

Rudi Johnson - Had the last of his very good seasons at 27 with a 341/1309/12 mark. But his YPC dropped to 3.8, down from 4.0 & 4.3 the seasons before. He never made an impact after this.

Jerome Bettis - Had one stellar season after 27, but his YPC which had been at a career mark of 4.1 up until this year, dropped to 3.6. Aside from a injury shortened season when he was 29 when his YPC was a career best 4.8, Bettis muddled around the 3.6-3.7 mark (if not below for the remainder of his career).

...you can go back to the days of big backs like Earl Campbell, Christian Okoye, Gerald Riggs and James Wilder to see these declines as well. It's possible that Jackson has more gas left in the tank. But I'm going to let someone else find out (whether it's the hard way or not).

Prediction: 277 Carries, 1041 Rushing Yards 6 TD's; 40 Receptions 257 Receiving Yards
Click to expand...
I think you are confusing your "big back declining theory" with RBs past their prime all together.RBs in the NFL usually peak at 25 to 27, regardless if they are big or small.

Look at the top 100 fantasy seasons by a RB in the last 50 years (i.e. when a RB peaked in their career). Link

The average age of those RBs was 25.7 years old.
Click to expand...
Not many RB's though are 6'2 240. Bigger they are, the harder they fall theory. Jackson's has had significant injury issues and I'd rather avoid him this year at the risk of him putting together another RB1 season rather than potentially get stuck with him and enter Clinton Portis trade value territory. Based on the information I'm placing a priority on...this is the year to avoid him.
Click to expand...
It appears you are just trying to apply this made-up "Big RB" theory to Jackson.Your example of "big RB" RBs had some quality fantasy seasons in your example, yet you dismiss them or don't mention them and instead mention their YPC in the down years.

I would like to see the evidence of why a big RB has a shorter shelf life than other RBs. So far you have used 4 RBs as examples, and of those RBs, there have been some good seasons later in their careers.

If a big RB declines, why is it because of their weight/height rather than the amount of carries they have had in their career? And I have yet to see evidence that these "big RBs" deteriorated any faster than a normal RB with similar touches throughout their careers.

My new theory is that "Big RBs" last longer than average sized RBs because big RBs like Eddie George and Jerome Bettis had longer than usual RB careers in the NFL.

 
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I just read this offensive line analysis over at "Ultimate Fantasy Football Strategy."

2010 St. Louis Rams O-line Analysis

2010 Outlook:

The Rams offensive line is probably one of the hardest to analyze this season. They have a starting left tackle with a lot of potential but who barely played last year, a rookie starting at right tackle and two or three players competing for the starting job at right guard. The one comforting statistic for the Rams is that they averaged 4.5 yards per carry in the running game and allowed only 29 sacks until the final three games of the year when they were without Jacob Bell. In those first 13 games they used Barron at LT, Bell at LG, Brown at C, Goldberg at either RG or RT and Smith, Greco, Setterstrom and Incognito played at the remaining position. If we compare that line with this year’s line: Smith should be an upgrade over Barron, Bell and Brown will continue to start and the winner at right guard will be as good as Goldberg and maybe better. This means that rookie Rodger Saffold only has to be as good as an alternating group of four. As little as we know about how Saffold will do this year, there’s nothing worse for an offensive line than always changing players so it shouldn’t be very hard for him to be better than those guys. If we put all that together, the Rams should be at least as good as they were in those first 13 games with two possible upgrades. The Rams also have pretty good depth with Greco, Fraley, Trautwein and Setterstrom but the starters must still find a way to stay healthy, especially Smith and Bell. Overall, we expect this line to be right around the league average in pass protection, an improvement over last year, and we believe that their run blocking could surprise and be near the top of the league.
Click to expand...
Can anyone shed some light on this for me? I was surprised to read the bolded, but looking at the game logs the Rams did have some dominant performances in the running game early on in 2009. The only thing that held SJAX back were those lowly 4 touchdowns, which we all know can change drastically season to season.

Jackson has alot of "ifs" surrounding him, but he could be a major steal in the late first round if the Rams can avoid injuries on offense, improve efficiency in the passing game, and Jackson's TD totals match up to all of those yards.

 
Grahamburn said:
I just read this offensive line analysis over at "Ultimate Fantasy Football Strategy."

2010 St. Louis Rams O-line Analysis

2010 Outlook:

The Rams offensive line is probably one of the hardest to analyze this season. They have a starting left tackle with a lot of potential but who barely played last year, a rookie starting at right tackle and two or three players competing for the starting job at right guard. The one comforting statistic for the Rams is that they averaged 4.5 yards per carry in the running game and allowed only 29 sacks until the final three games of the year when they were without Jacob Bell. In those first 13 games they used Barron at LT, Bell at LG, Brown at C, Goldberg at either RG or RT and Smith, Greco, Setterstrom and Incognito played at the remaining position. If we compare that line with this year’s line: Smith should be an upgrade over Barron, Bell and Brown will continue to start and the winner at right guard will be as good as Goldberg and maybe better. This means that rookie Rodger Saffold only has to be as good as an alternating group of four. As little as we know about how Saffold will do this year, there’s nothing worse for an offensive line than always changing players so it shouldn’t be very hard for him to be better than those guys. If we put all that together, the Rams should be at least as good as they were in those first 13 games with two possible upgrades. The Rams also have pretty good depth with Greco, Fraley, Trautwein and Setterstrom but the starters must still find a way to stay healthy, especially Smith and Bell. Overall, we expect this line to be right around the league average in pass protection, an improvement over last year, and we believe that their run blocking could surprise and be near the top of the league.
Click to expand...
Can anyone shed some light on this for me? I was surprised to read the bolded, but looking at the game logs the Rams did have some dominant performances in the running game early on in 2009. The only thing that held SJAX back were those lowly 4 touchdowns, which we all know can change drastically season to season.

Jackson has alot of "ifs" surrounding him, but he could be a major steal in the late first round if the Rams can avoid injuries on offense, improve efficiency in the passing game, and Jackson's TD totals match up to all of those yards.
Click to expand...
I'm picking 12 in my local and, after reading more and more about S-Jax after not particularly considering him, i'm definitely coming around to him maybe being one of my first 2 picks along with best available WR. Pretty tough picking between him, D-Will and the younger backs (Matthews, Greene etc) or maybe Benson. Anyway, 1.12 or 2.1 might be a decent place to grab him. Just pray he stays healthy if you do take him I guess.
 
MrTwo94 said:
Creed Bratton said:
MrTwo94 said:
David Yudkin said:
I wouldn't worry too much about Jackson's low TD total.

RBs that had 350 touches and 5 or fewer TD in Year X+1:

Stephen Davis 01 5 TD, 02 8 TD

Eddie George 01 5 TD, 02 14 TD

Curtis Martin 99 5 TD, 00 11 TD

Willis McGahee 05 5 TD, 06 6 TD

Jerome Bettis 94 4 TD, 95 (injured) 3 TD

Barry Sanders 98 4 TD, 95 8 TD

Curtis Martin 03 2 TD, 04 14 TD
Click to expand...
It is likely that these guys were not on dismal offenses that only scored 4 rushing TD's as a team. They likely had a guy sneaking a few TD's from them and/or their offense got better the next year. As much as I've loved watching SJax over the years, I just think he's hamstrung as long as he's on the Rams. He's had 6, 8 , 4 in the last 3 years and the Rams aren't getting better this year. The guy is awesome but the upside just isn't there.
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Epecting the Rams to score only 4 rushing TDs again is a losing proposition. Only 2 teams in the last 9 years have been as bad as St. Louis was at scoring rushing TDs. Frank Gore is a pretty good comparison for being on an offensively inept team before last season. And he was getting between 5-8 rushing TDs with 1or 2 receiving TDs as well. That's a pretty good baseline to expect if Steven Jackson has another typical season by his standards. And if the passing game miraculously is effective(see Cleveland in 2007), then he has potential to score more.
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Not sure how I missed this the first time around, but you aren't refuting my point at all. 5-8 rushing TDs is not exactly the upside people are looking for in the first round and considering the 6, 8, 4 total TD in the last 3 years (and his injury history) I think it is a bit foolish to say 5-8 with 1-2 in the air is a baseline. I think 4-8 with 0-2 in the air is realistic. Anything above that would require a significant improvement in the offense and/or defense. That latest clip about the o-line is quite optimistic. That being said, AJ Feely is a decent QB. Definitely an improvement over last year's hodge podge at the position. For the guy drafting at 1.12, I'd say go for it. The main thing SJax has going for him is touches. If healthy, he will finish in the top 3 in touches, guaranteed. That leads to consistency. But he's got health issues and a very bad team. Make sure you've got depth at RB.
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I think we're more or less in agreement here. I don't see the point in trying to argue over how many touchdowns Jackson scores since we both agree he's not a strong bet to get double digit touchdowns and our expectations are only a touchdown or two different. The only thing I'd add is that touchdowns are relatively more variable from year to year and offensive situations(even ones like St. Louis) aren't set in stone so there may be some upside if things aren't as bad as we expect. All in all, Jackson's talented and is going to get 350+ touches if he stays healthy(which I'm not convinced he will).
 
May I ask a pertinent question in this projection only thread? Can Steven Jackson stay healthy for 16 if the Rams can develop enough other threats on offense to take some of the weight off his shoulders? What's needed to do that? 3k by Bradford? 1200 by Laurent or some WR?

 
Bri said:
May I ask a pertinent question in this projection only thread? Can Steven Jackson stay healthy for 16 if the Rams can develop enough other threats on offense to take some of the weight off his shoulders? What's needed to do that? 3k by Bradford? 1200 by Laurent or some WR?
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When you draft Jackson you should probably expect him to miss 2-4 games. If the Rams can develop some consistency on offense then we'll see Jackson getting close to double digit TDs in addition to his 1,700+ yards. He should easily approach the top 3 in fantasy points per game in that scenario.
 
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