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Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers

Player Page Link: Jonathan Stewart Player Page

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[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

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[*]Consensus Member Projections

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Stewart is one of the top 3-4 most talented RB's in the league. You would be hard pressed to find a better combination of speed and power. Obviously Deangelo Williams being in Carolina hinders his reddraft value, but even with that, he is still a top 12 redraft RB.

202 carries, 1009 yards, 10 TD's, 20 rec., 191 yards, 1 TD

 
Stewart is one of th guys who could win you a fantasy championship if things break right if you own him. If Williams wasn't around down the stretch of the fantasy season, this guy is capable of 150 and multiple Td's. He seems like a guy who's just waiting to have a real bust out season, but he also reminds me of a player who shows flashes of brilliance but alwas has that nagging injury that keeps him from reaching his full potential as a STUD back. I'm going to look at the glass half full for Johnathon Stewart this season.

1140 yards rushing, 10 td's 24 receptions 220 for 2 td's

 
As good as he is the true RBBC bumps him down quite a bit for me. It's hard to rely on the production week to week. I do hope he breaks out this year.

 
If this guy was the true RB1 on his team than he would be off the board in the middle of the 1st round in every dynasty draft going. Instead, he's an ultra-talented back playing second fiddle to an equally talented. I don't see J-Stew posting huge numbers as long as he's paired with D-Will and he will be more of a RB2 value with RB1 potential. If you draft him high I think you're going to be disappointed by the end of the season because of inconsistent performances.

192 carries, 4.7 ypc, 902 yards, 7 TDs

25 receptions, 7.0 ypr, 175 yards, 1 TD

 
Stewart's numbers from the 13 games in which he split carries with Williams: 151 carries for 682 yards and 7 TDs. Over 16 games that would equate to 190 carries for 839 yards and 9 TDs - almost identical to his rookie year numbers of 184 carries for 836 yards and 10 TDs.

That being said, I'll give him an increase from those stats: 200 carries for 1000 yards and 10 TDs with 20 catches for 200 yards and 2 TDs.

 
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I like the guy but he is going pretty high in redrafts coming off foot surgery. If he's healthy then you have to figure 10 TDs.

 
I like the guy but he is going pretty high in redrafts coming off foot surgery. If he's healthy then you have to figure 10 TDs.
Such a tough tough guy to assess. I could see him getting 220carries for 1000ish yards and 10 tds. this could go a ton of ways. Obviously an injury to Dwill would make him a top 5 candidate. The Panther defense is going to be beyond horrible so maybe the carries go down this year from playing behind a ton. I honestly have no clue where I would take him in a 12 team redraft. Even splitting carries he can produce serviceable #2 rb numbers with the occasional "holy crap that was amazing" type game. I think when the dust settles people will draft him higher then where he probably should go because there is always that chance dwill could go down and even if he doesnt you will still get decent points.
 
I really like Stewart this year.

1. Carolina D looks to be going downhill somewhat so you try to run the ball more to play conservative.

2. With injury histories, I'm thinking neither back takes the full role so a 6-40 D Will or maybe a 50-50 split will be in order here.

3. With D Will a free agent after seasons end, maybe the Panthers see what Stewart can do with a bigger role and maybe the carries go 60-40 the other way.

4. In auctions I have done, D Will is going for $15-$20 more than J Stew making him a huge value with that upside that he is one injury of D Will away from super stardom fantasy wise.

I'm thinking low end: 240 for 1150 and 9 TD's 20 rec for 140 and 1 more TD

High end: 300 for 1300 and 12 TD 25 rec for 180 and 2 more TD

Carolina will still look to run the ball almost 500 times if possible, so numbers anywhere between these would be sensical. When guys like Beanie Wells, Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy are in the same area, I think I may like the consistency and upside of Stewart better.

 
Carolina may be one of the only teams that will feed the ball to 2 RB's more than 200 times each. Carolina is built to run the ball and they will have to do this a lot to be successful this year. Stewart should have another great year.

Rushes 225

Rush Yds 1120

Rush TD 12

Rec 16

Rec Yrds 80

Rec TD 1

 
I too think maybe the Jonathan Stewart and the DeAngelo Williams threads should be merged so I guess I'll post this in both of them.

The first thing that popped out at me about the 2009 season and the Carolina Panthers running game is the fact that other than the Minnesota game in week 15 (where DeAngelo was injured and shut down for the year), DeAngelo outrushed Stewart in every single contest. All of them. Every game in which both backs were healthy and on the field, DeAngelo led the team in rushing regardless of carry totals. Those of you touting Stewart expecting a 50/50 split should read that again.

That's very telling about how the Carolina coaching staff sees the running game when both backs are healthy. I realize that Stewart is an extremely talented player, but so is Williams. They're both going to get carries. The "if DeAngelo gets hurt Stewart is a beast argument" goes both ways. The point is that when they're healthy, Williams is clearly the lead back.

I've read several posts about how Stewart has earned more playing time with his late season performances showcasing his ability to carry the load. Well, the problem with that is how well DeAngelo has also played in the last two seasons. I can't see the Carolina coaching staff changing philosophies for 2010 because Stewart had some big games at the end of 2009.

The argument that Stewart was nicked up all season doesn't really hold water either. Why wouldn't the Panthers just shut him down at the end of the year like they did with DeAngelo? Stewart was able to play through the pain and carry the load to some big games. The coaching staff wasn't holding him back during the season because of injury while DeAngelo was in the lineup.

These big games for Stewart were in the fantasy playoffs late in the season where fantasy players have great, yet short, memories.

I really like DeAngelo in the 7-9 range in the first round of a redraft league. He's an extremely talented back, catches the ball well, the Panthers are a run first team with a great line, and they play a soft schedule.

Stewart's carries and big games seem inconsistent to me. Unless DeAngelo is injured it's difficult to count on him for consistent fantasy points. I'd be ecstatic with him as a RB3. He'll approach 1,000 yards and double digit TDs, but you'll never know when they're coming.

DeAngelo Williams: 255 carries 1,300 yards - 40 receptions 320 yards 12 total TDs

Jonathan Stewart: 200 carries 980 yards - 20 receptions 140 yards 12 total TDs

 
Yet, the reality of the matter is that it takes a good defense to be afforded the luxury of running a conservative offense, not vice versa. The main thing that both Williams and Stewart have to look forward to is improved QB play. There should be less drive ending interceptions or ridiculously errant throws on 3rd down. But the poor defense could lead to a slight shift to passing on this team. Not that it will no longer be a run oriented team, just that it will likely be a little bit less so. Last year there were 465 passes attempted to 491 RB rushes with 437 of those rushes going to Williams and Stewart. Some are projecting their combined carries to actually go up. I find that highly unlikely simply because I doubt they rush quite that much next year.
MrTwo - great post overall. I share many of your thoughts on Stewart's prospects for 2010.One comment: you imply that the Panthers will run the ball less because of their defense....which could be extended to say something like "I expect them to lose more, therefore they will be behind more, therefore they will throw more." Possible, but consider this: the Panthers were 12-4 in 2008, and 8-8 in 2009. In other words, they were less successful in 2009. Yet their rushing yds per game increased from 152 to 156 during that same span. So despite being less successful as a team (and let's recall that they were 4-7 through 11 weeks), they had greater statistical success running the ball. Just food for thought.
 
This saved me a couple minutes. It is exactly what I was planning on doing when I clicked on this thread.Given that last year's split between Williams and Stewart leaves Stewart with only 190/839/9, I find it strange that people are projecting his floor to be well above that. The biases here are almost humorous. I also enjoy the line of thought that the defense is getting worse so they should run the ball more to play conservatively. Yet, the reality of the matter is that it takes a good defense to be afforded the luxury of running a conservative offense, not vice versa. The main thing that both Williams and Stewart have to look forward to is improved QB play. There should be less drive ending interceptions or ridiculously errant throws on 3rd down. But the poor defense could lead to a slight shift to passing on this team. Not that it will no longer be a run oriented team, just that it will likely be a little bit less so. Last year there were 465 passes attempted to 491 RB rushes with 437 of those rushes going to Williams and Stewart. Some are projecting their combined carries to actually go up. I find that highly unlikely simply because I doubt they rush quite that much next year. As a team I think 460 rushes is more realistic with 430 going to those two. I think a 230/200 split is about as optimistic as any Stewart owner should get (I wouldn't be surprised to see 240/190). Their 5+ ypc numbers were awesome last year. That is never easy to reproduce.Assuming 16 games played each:Williams: 230 x 5 = 1150 yds 11 TD, 30 rec x 8 ypr = 240 yds 2 TDStewart: 200 x 5 = 1000 yds 9 TD, 20 rec x 8 ypr = 160 yds 1 TD
PFR has them at 525 carries. I'm assuming you just removed the carries by Delhomme, Moore, and Smiff from the equation. Either way, while the carry total was high-ish, it wasn't unsustainably so for a rushing team the quality of Carolina. The Pittsburgh Steelers under Bill Cowher put up the following carry totals: 518, 491, 546, 494, 525, 572, 490, 495, 527, 580, 512, 446, 618, 549, 469. That's a mean of 522 and a median of 518, so a team dedicated to running the football can definitely support those carry totals over a long time period. Otherwise, I agree with your post pretty much across the board, and think your Stewart projection might actually be OVERESTIMATING him (those numbers would have been good for an RB15 finish last year, which would make him a very high-end RB2).Jonathan Stewart is, in my opinion, a low-end RB2 or high-end RB3 with lottery ticket, unstoppable top-5 fantasy force potential. His production is probably going to be in the RB20 range (RB20 last year had 158 fantasy points, so we're talking about 1,000 combined yards and 10 combined TDs, which seems pretty much right on the money without a Williams injury). His upside, on the other hand, means he warrants drafting a little bit higher than his raw projections might dictate. His current ADP is RB16, so it looks to me like the market has Stewart's value pegged.Projections:190/900/10 rushing, 14/100/0 receiving if Williams played 16 games (10.0 fp/g)320/1520/15 rushing, 25/175/1 receiving if Williams played 0 games (16.6 fp/g)In short, for every game Williams misses, add 6.6 points to Stewart's season-ending total. To illustrate that with last year's rankings, here's where Stewart would rank based on how many games Williams missed:0 missed games = RB191 missed game = RB182 missed games = RB163 missed games = RB144 missed games = RB135 missed games = RB116 missed games = RB107 missed games = RB98 missed games = RB89-10 missed games = RB711-12 missed games = RB513-16 missed games = RB4
 
SSOG said:
PFR has them at 525 carries. I'm assuming you just removed the carries by Delhomme, Moore, and Smiff from the equation. Either way, while the carry total was high-ish, it wasn't unsustainably so for a rushing team the quality of Carolina. The Pittsburgh Steelers under Bill Cowher put up the following carry totals: 518, 491, 546, 494, 525, 572, 490, 495, 527, 580, 512, 446, 618, 549, 469. That's a mean of 522 and a median of 518, so a team dedicated to running the football can definitely support those carry totals over a long time period. Otherwise, I agree with your post pretty much across the board, and think your Stewart projection might actually be OVERESTIMATING him (those numbers would have been good for an RB15 finish last year, which would make him a very high-end RB2).Jonathan Stewart is, in my opinion, a low-end RB2 or high-end RB3 with lottery ticket, unstoppable top-5 fantasy force potential. His production is probably going to be in the RB20 range (RB20 last year had 158 fantasy points, so we're talking about 1,000 combined yards and 10 combined TDs, which seems pretty much right on the money without a Williams injury). His upside, on the other hand, means he warrants drafting a little bit higher than his raw projections might dictate. His current ADP is RB16, so it looks to me like the market has Stewart's value pegged.Projections:190/900/10 rushing, 14/100/0 receiving if Williams played 16 games (10.0 fp/g)320/1520/15 rushing, 25/175/1 receiving if Williams played 0 games (16.6 fp/g)In short, for every game Williams misses, add 6.6 points to Stewart's season-ending total. To illustrate that with last year's rankings, here's where Stewart would rank based on how many games Williams missed:0 missed games = RB191 missed game = RB182 missed games = RB163 missed games = RB144 missed games = RB135 missed games = RB116 missed games = RB107 missed games = RB98 missed games = RB89-10 missed games = RB711-12 missed games = RB513-16 missed games = RB4
Good stuff SSOG. To spin your comment slightly differently (to make it simple for guys like me): in games DWill plays, you expect Stewart to produce like RB19. In games where DWill doesn't play, you expect Stewart to produce like RB4.
 
I don't understand why Stewart is going as high as the third or fourth round in drafts. I read somewhere that in games where both he and Deangelo Williams played, Stewart averaged 45 yards rushing or so. Why would I use such a high pick for such marginal production? Yes he would be a monster if Williams ever went down, but you can't anticipate injuries like that. Why not wait three or four rounds and draft Marion Barber or Brandon Jacobs?

 
I don't understand why Stewart is going as high as the third or fourth round in drafts. I read somewhere that in games where both he and Deangelo Williams played, Stewart averaged 45 yards rushing or so. Why would I use such a high pick for such marginal production? Yes he would be a monster if Williams ever went down, but you can't anticipate injuries like that. Why not wait three or four rounds and draft Marion Barber or Brandon Jacobs?
Was it this thread? :goodposting:
 
I don't understand why Stewart is going as high as the third or fourth round in drafts. I read somewhere that in games where both he and Deangelo Williams played, Stewart averaged 45 yards rushing or so. Why would I use such a high pick for such marginal production? Yes he would be a monster if Williams ever went down, but you can't anticipate injuries like that. Why not wait three or four rounds and draft Marion Barber or Brandon Jacobs?
From weeks 1-13 last year (i.e. "weeks in which DeAngelo Williams was healthy"), Stewart was the 22nd best fantasy RB. The most recent ADP data I've seen for Stewart has him going as RB19. That seems pretty reasonable. If Williams stays healthy, Stewart underperforms his draft position by a very nominal amount. If Williams gets hurt, Stewart blows his draft position to smithereens. He's being drafted just the slightest hair above where he was performing to account for his unmatched upside.
 
SSOG said:
AtomicDogg97 said:
I don't understand why Stewart is going as high as the third or fourth round in drafts. I read somewhere that in games where both he and Deangelo Williams played, Stewart averaged 45 yards rushing or so. Why would I use such a high pick for such marginal production? Yes he would be a monster if Williams ever went down, but you can't anticipate injuries like that. Why not wait three or four rounds and draft Marion Barber or Brandon Jacobs?
From weeks 1-13 last year (i.e. "weeks in which DeAngelo Williams was healthy"), Stewart was the 22nd best fantasy RB. The most recent ADP data I've seen for Stewart has him going as RB19. That seems pretty reasonable. If Williams stays healthy, Stewart underperforms his draft position by a very nominal amount. If Williams gets hurt, Stewart blows his draft position to smithereens. He's being drafted just the slightest hair above where he was performing to account for his unmatched upside.
And that's assuming another season identical to last year's first 13 weeks. if stewart is healthy, he will get some percentage more in carries - maybe 1 percent, maybe 5, maybe 10. who knows other than fox? that additional work could also push him up to 19.espn projected him for 1,100 yard and 11 or 12 TDs and had him ranked below lesean mccoy, who won't hit those numbers. i guess they're factoring in mccoy's receiving will be more.
 
SSOG said:
AtomicDogg97 said:
I don't understand why Stewart is going as high as the third or fourth round in drafts. I read somewhere that in games where both he and Deangelo Williams played, Stewart averaged 45 yards rushing or so. Why would I use such a high pick for such marginal production? Yes he would be a monster if Williams ever went down, but you can't anticipate injuries like that. Why not wait three or four rounds and draft Marion Barber or Brandon Jacobs?
From weeks 1-13 last year (i.e. "weeks in which DeAngelo Williams was healthy"), Stewart was the 22nd best fantasy RB. The most recent ADP data I've seen for Stewart has him going as RB19. That seems pretty reasonable. If Williams stays healthy, Stewart underperforms his draft position by a very nominal amount. If Williams gets hurt, Stewart blows his draft position to smithereens. He's being drafted just the slightest hair above where he was performing to account for his unmatched upside.
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And that's assuming another season identical to last year's first 13 weeks. BIG if stewart is healthy, he will MIGHT get some percentage more in carries - maybe 1 percent, maybe 5, maybe 10. who knows other than fox? that additional work could also push him up to 19.
fixed. As you yourself said, who knows other than Fox. Therefore it's naive to assume that he automatically WILL get some increase in carries, especially when he's not healthy yet.
 

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