What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami Dolphins (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami Dolphins

Player Page Link: Ronnie Brown Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :goodposting: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Oh Ronnie Ronie Ronnie.

Will you ever play a back to back 16 game seasons? Ever? Will you ever realize your true stud potential as a all around 3 down PPR beast?

No.

But the good news is he will be ready for the season and will be this teams lead dog. The question is can he stay healthy. It's not like he has had nagging injuries. He has had big ones. Broken hand, blown out knee and now a lis-franc injury. He has been snake bit no doubt. But when he plays he is productive and I hope the Dolphins utilize him in the passing game a bunch more than lat year. He has some of the best hands in the league period.

I expect a good solid typical season out of Ronnie assuming a 16 game season:

1135 yards Rushing with 8 TD's on 255 carries

42 receptions 345 yards 2 TD's

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I see no reason why Ronnie will do any better than last year and expect him to do a bit worse coming off his most recent season-ending injury and surgery.

If you look at last season it's a tale of two RB philosophies, before and after the bye (wk6). Before then Ronnie was getting RB1 carries (18.6 cpg, even with only 10 carries the first game while they were testing him out), but far fewer receptions (1.8 rpg). The Fins had a 2-3 record during this stretch.

After the bye, wk7-10 when Ronnie got injured, he average 13.5 cpg and his receptions went down to 1rpg. Their record during this period was 2-2. After Ronnie got injured their record was 3-4.

So their best stretch was when Ronnie was being used sparingly, and that was before a third major injury.

I think Ricky outperforms Ronnie in both normal and ppr formats, but since this is a Ronnie projection thread, here goes:

9 games played

13.5 cpg x 4.2 avg = 510 yards and 4 ground scores, 12 receptions x 8.5 ypc = 102 yards 1 rec td, 10 completions for 85 yards and 2 scores

 
sholditch said:
I see no reason why Ronnie will do any better than last year and expect him to do a bit worse coming off his most recent season-ending injury and surgery.

If you look at last season it's a tale of two RB philosophies, before and after the bye (wk6). Before then Ronnie was getting RB1 carries (18.6 cpg, even with only 10 carries the first game while they were testing him out), but far fewer receptions (1.8 rpg). The Fins had a 2-3 record during this stretch.

After the bye, wk7-10 when Ronnie got injured, he average 13.5 cpg and his receptions went down to 1rpg. Their record during this period was 2-2. After Ronnie got injured their record was 3-4.

So their best stretch was when Ronnie was being used sparingly, and that was before a third major injury.

I think Ricky outperforms Ronnie in both normal and ppr formats, but since this is a Ronnie projection thread, here goes:

9 games played

13.5 cpg x 4.2 avg = 510 yards and 4 ground scores, 12 receptions x 8.5 ypc = 102 yards 1 rec td, 10 completions for 85 yards and 2 scores
Click to expand...
So you are surmising that since the team went 2-2 when Ronnie was getting less touches vs 2-3 when he was getting more, that the key to Miami's season is to use Ronnie more sparingly? Because they had one less loss in those 4 weeks than they had in the other 5?I am not saying your predictions are wrong. Based on Ronnie's history it is fair to assume a 9 game season. But to come to your conclusion based upon the team's 2-2 vs 2-3 record seems like a stretch to me.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I too am skeptical of Ronnie Brown until proven otherwise. I recognize that my skepticism simply means he won't be on my teams, because his ADP suggests that enough owners will be willing to draft him thinking he could be a Top 10 fantasy back if he finally sticks to it for a full 16 games. To my mind, I look at how awesome Ricky Williams was after Ronnie got hurt, and yet he's currently coming off the board at RB27. I just don't see what incentive the Dolphins coaches have to give Ronnie the majority of touches even if he's healthy. To me, if you're doing a probability tree, the fattest branch is a true committee between the backs.

 
I think that the Dolphins are in a transition year. I believe that they are through with Ronnie Brown and will not extend him. They also have Ricky Williams (already 33 years old) and probably perilously close to being past the point of no return. I think that they lean heavily on Chad Henne and Brandon Marshall and shift from the previous focus on the run to leaning on the pass.

I also tend to shy away from leg and foot injured RBs longer than others and therefore miss out on drafting them. Ronnie has had season ending injuries in two of the last three seasons and has only one year (2007) when he did not miss games out of his five year career. I think that the Dolphins will run less and as long as their two RBs are available, they will time share in an attempt to keep them available all season.

Ronnie Brown has a current ADP of RB 21 and 44 overall and I just see too many other options to take him there. I am not discounting his talent and productivity, but he is just not dependable enough for me. I always project for playing the full season, but I have serious doubts on that philosophy with Mr. Brown.

Ronnie Brown 16 gms 170 carries 10.6 per game 31 yards 4.3 ypc 38 targets 28 catches 7.0 ypc 196 yards and 10 total TDs

 
Todem said:
Oh Ronnie Ronie Ronnie.Will you ever play a back to back 16 game seasons? Ever? Will you ever realize your true stud potential as a all around 3 down PPR beast?No.But the good news is he will be ready for the season and will be this teams lead dog. The question is can he stay healthy. It's not like he has had nagging injuries. He has had big ones. Broken hand, blown out knee and now a lis-franc injury. He has been snake bit no doubt. But when he plays he is productive and I hope the Dolphins utilize him in the passing game a bunch more than lat year. He has some of the best hands in the league period.I expect a good solid typical season out of Ronnie assuming a 16 game season:1135 yards Rushing with 8 TD's on 255 carries42 receptions 345 yards 2 TD's
Click to expand...
Doesn't Ronnie only have 1 season over 1000 yards and 5 or less TDs in over half his seasons as starter? The 1135 seems fairly optimistic, as does the 255 carries, and as taboo as it may be to predict injuries and the like, I think you have to assume Ronnie won't get a full complement of carries, especially with the passing game improving. I'm guessing he gets 175-200 carries, 800-900 yards and maybe 6-7 total TDs. Ricky still has some gas left as well.
 
After really looking at his numbers and his injury history and his situation and competition, I can't see him being worth drafting before round 9.

And yes, I think with Ronnie healthy the team recognized that they were better with more of an even-split at RB production. So when Ronnie is healthy I see a 50-50 and believe Ricky will do more with less. After all, given Ronnie's injury history and Ricky's year off, I think in terms of wear and tear Ricky has a slight edge on Ronnie. Furthermore, if Ronnie is healthy they run a lot more Wildcat which works best with both backs on the field and Ronnie playing QB. So much fewer receptions. If you watched games last year, they completely abandoned the Wildcat with Ronnie out and Ricky played more traditional RB role. I don't think he went under center once.

When Ronnie is injured (probably for 1/3 of the season) Ricky plays like a RB1 and its most likely to happen during the playoffs. So drafting Ricky as Rb27 is the way to go, not paying a higher price for a more fragile and less productive back who is about as close to a lock to get injured as any player in the league.

 
Jason Wood said:
I too am skeptical of Ronnie Brown until proven otherwise. I recognize that my skepticism simply means he won't be on my teams, because his ADP suggests that enough owners will be willing to draft him thinking he could be a Top 10 fantasy back if he finally sticks to it for a full 16 games. To my mind, I look at how awesome Ricky Williams was after Ronnie got hurt, and yet he's currently coming off the board at RB27. I just don't see what incentive the Dolphins coaches have to give Ronnie the majority of touches even if he's healthy. To me, if you're doing a probability tree, the fattest branch is a true committee between the backs.
Click to expand...
:mellow: Williams with Brown last year:

9 games

105 carries

558 yards

5.3 YPC

18 recept

193 yards

21.4 YPC

7 total TDs

Averaged 83 total yards and .78/ TD's on less than 14 touches per game

Williams without Brown last year:

7 Games

136 carries

563 yards

4.1 YPC

17 recept

71 yards

4.2 YPR

6 total TDs

Averaged 90 total yards and .86/ TD's on about 22 touches per game

 
I don't understand the 10-13 carry per game projections at all. Last year, the Dolphin RBs had over 450 carries. When Brown was healthy, he and Williams received over 90% of the carries. The split was about 60/40 in favor of Brown. Assuming he is healthy, which it appears he will be, I can't see why that formula would change this year. Someone has to get the carries. The majority isn't going to go to Williams.

Prior to his injury, Williams and Brown were on pace for about 400 carries. The improved passing game might steal some plays from the running game but it should also extend drives, allowing for about the same number of carries.

Brown may not play 16 games but the same can be said for any RB.

240 carries, 1050 yards, 12 TDs, 30 rec, 240 yards, 1 TD

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I don't see a big year ahead for Brown or Williams.... both are in contract years and (I believe) Miami FO would like to keep the younger Brown but not at a high $$ due to their business savy under Parcels. There will be more Marshall & passing game offensive plays. There will be a mix of RB touches. 10-12 touches a game per RB is realistic.

Ronnie Outlook:

185 carries

800 yards

6 TD

36 rec

295 yards

2 TD

Not Top 20 value IMO.

I like him, but I don't think his value will match his ADP.

 
H.K. said:
Jason Wood said:
I too am skeptical of Ronnie Brown until proven otherwise. I recognize that my skepticism simply means he won't be on my teams, because his ADP suggests that enough owners will be willing to draft him thinking he could be a Top 10 fantasy back if he finally sticks to it for a full 16 games. To my mind, I look at how awesome Ricky Williams was after Ronnie got hurt, and yet he's currently coming off the board at RB27. I just don't see what incentive the Dolphins coaches have to give Ronnie the majority of touches even if he's healthy. To me, if you're doing a probability tree, the fattest branch is a true committee between the backs.
Click to expand...
:lmao: Williams with Brown last year:

9 games

105 carries

558 yards

5.3 YPC

18 recept

193 yards

21.4 YPC

7 total TDs

Averaged 83 total yards and .78/ TD's on less than 14 touches per game

Williams without Brown last year:

7 Games

136 carries

563 yards

4.1 YPC

17 recept

71 yards

4.2 YPR

6 total TDs

Averaged 90 total yards and .86/ TD's on about 22 touches per game
Click to expand...
I say tomato, you say tomato I guess. :loco: I look at the last 7 games and see a 311 carry, 1,287 yard, 11 TD pace for the guy, even though the Dolphins main offensive weapon up until that point was neutralized. To me that speaks volumes about what Ricky can and should be asked to do. Why relegate him to backup duties even if Ronnie is fully healthy? I recognize that is a risk, but it just seems illogical to me that they won't both at least be heavily involved, and you still have a better than average chance that Ronnie will struggle/stay hurt and then Ricky has Top 10-12 potential IMHO.

 
Jason Wood said:
H.K. said:
Jason Wood said:
I too am skeptical of Ronnie Brown until proven otherwise. I recognize that my skepticism simply means he won't be on my teams, because his ADP suggests that enough owners will be willing to draft him thinking he could be a Top 10 fantasy back if he finally sticks to it for a full 16 games. To my mind, I look at how awesome Ricky Williams was after Ronnie got hurt, and yet he's currently coming off the board at RB27. I just don't see what incentive the Dolphins coaches have to give Ronnie the majority of touches even if he's healthy. To me, if you're doing a probability tree, the fattest branch is a true committee between the backs.
Click to expand...
:mellow: Williams with Brown last year:

9 games

Averaged 83 total yards and .78/ TD's on less than 14 touches per game

Williams without Brown last year:

7 Games

Averaged 90 total yards and .86/ TD's on about 22 touches per game
Click to expand...
I say tomato, you say tomato I guess. :lmao: I look at the last 7 games and see a 311 carry, 1,287 yard, 11 TD pace for the guy, even though the Dolphins main offensive weapon up until that point was neutralized. To me that speaks volumes about what Ricky can and should be asked to do. Why relegate him to backup duties even if Ronnie is fully healthy? I recognize that is a risk, but it just seems illogical to me that they won't both at least be heavily involved, and you still have a better than average chance that Ronnie will struggle/stay hurt and then Ricky has Top 10-12 potential IMHO.
Click to expand...
Because he is a 33 year old RB who can't handle it. IMO looking at the aggregate total for the final seven games and extrapolating it out among sixteen games before looking at the splits is unfounded. Look at the data:Weeks 11-14

95 carries

417 yards

4.4 YPC

He carried an average of 23.75 times a game for that stretch and then....

Weeks 15-17

41 carries

146 yards

3.6 YPC

He carried an average of 13.6 times the final three games to finish the year.

Look at the decline in YPC. He was toast.

 
BuckeyeArt said:
I don't understand the 10-13 carry per game projections at all. Last year, the Dolphin RBs had over 450 carries. When Brown was healthy, he and Williams received over 90% of the carries. The split was about 60/40 in favor of Brown. Assuming he is healthy, which it appears he will be, I can't see why that formula would change this year. Someone has to get the carries. The majority isn't going to go to Williams.Prior to his injury, Williams and Brown were on pace for about 400 carries. The improved passing game might steal some plays from the running game but it should also extend drives, allowing for about the same number of carries. Brown may not play 16 games but the same can be said for any RB. 240 carries, 1050 yards, 12 TDs, 30 rec, 240 yards, 1 TD
Click to expand...
Part of it is the passing game, part of it is the assumption Ronnie won't play a full 16 healthy (probably the biggest reason), and part of it is that between Polite, Cobbs, and Hilliard, there are maybe 5-10 carries per game that will be seen by other people. And yes, the same can be said for any RB, but it's more likely that Ronnie will miss games versus an RB who doesn't have an extended injury history and isn't coming off Lisfranc.
 
There's plenty of balls to go around in this Wildcat down in Miami. Ronnie Brown was effective as the main back and he will be again this year. You can look for both Brown and Williams to have solid rushing years.

820 yards rushing 7 td's 30 receptions for 250 yards 1 td

 
H.K. said:
Jason Wood said:
H.K. said:
Jason Wood said:
I too am skeptical of Ronnie Brown until proven otherwise. I recognize that my skepticism simply means he won't be on my teams, because his ADP suggests that enough owners will be willing to draft him thinking he could be a Top 10 fantasy back if he finally sticks to it for a full 16 games. To my mind, I look at how awesome Ricky Williams was after Ronnie got hurt, and yet he's currently coming off the board at RB27. I just don't see what incentive the Dolphins coaches have to give Ronnie the majority of touches even if he's healthy. To me, if you're doing a probability tree, the fattest branch is a true committee between the backs.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Williams with Brown last year:

9 games

Averaged 83 total yards and .78/ TD's on less than 14 touches per game

Williams without Brown last year:

7 Games

Averaged 90 total yards and .86/ TD's on about 22 touches per game
Click to expand...
I say tomato, you say tomato I guess. :popcorn: I look at the last 7 games and see a 311 carry, 1,287 yard, 11 TD pace for the guy, even though the Dolphins main offensive weapon up until that point was neutralized. To me that speaks volumes about what Ricky can and should be asked to do. Why relegate him to backup duties even if Ronnie is fully healthy? I recognize that is a risk, but it just seems illogical to me that they won't both at least be heavily involved, and you still have a better than average chance that Ronnie will struggle/stay hurt and then Ricky has Top 10-12 potential IMHO.
Click to expand...
Because he is a 33 year old RB who can't handle it. IMO looking at the aggregate total for the final seven games and extrapolating it out among sixteen games before looking at the splits is unfounded. Look at the data:Weeks 11-14

95 carries

417 yards

4.4 YPC

He carried an average of 23.75 times a game for that stretch and then....

Weeks 15-17

41 carries

146 yards

3.6 YPC

He carried an average of 13.6 times the final three games to finish the year.

Look at the decline in YPC. He was toast.
Click to expand...
Why don't you look at the fact that in week 16 they went down 24-0 to Houston by midway through the second quarter, and that in week 17 they had nothing to play for? His carries went way down in both of those contests and his ypc shot downward. His YPC before Ronnie got hurt came as the second back in Wildcat 95% of the time. Thus a higher ypcarry and ypcatch. After Ronnie the team stopped running the wildcat and Ricky played out of the I formation and shotgun, a much more traditional role.

One scenario is that Ronnie stays healthy all year and they run the wildcat, and I think Ricky does well in that scenario relative to his ADP. In the other Ronnie is hurt midway through the season and we get a similar season to last season, which would make him a steal at his current ADP (RB29 ADP v RB7 results). The third scenario for Ricky could be even better, which is that Ronnie never regains full strength, and Ricky assumes a traditional lead back role behind an improved QB and receiver corps. In which case we could see a lower ypc but higher yardage.

 
I hate to bring the non-haterade... but Miami's offense has gotten better not worse, he's still the lead back, and his FPPG is goofy high...

anyone who plans on having RB depth should be able to take him pretty confidently, even if he only plays half a season

 
sholditch said:
Why don't you look at the fact that in week 16 they went down 24-0 to Houston by midway through the second quarter, and that in week 17 they had nothing to play for? His carries went way down in both of those contests and his ypc shot downward.
Click to expand...
It only reinforces my point. Williams got hurt in Week 16 and only had one touch after getting injured on the first drive of the third quarter. The team was 7-6 going into the final three...they lost them all. Williams ineffectiveness was part of the reason Week 17 didn't matter.
 
wk 10-15 he averaged 100 ypg and a td per game + some receiving yards. And you'r suggesting it was Ricky's poor play during that stretch that put the Fins in a position to be fighting playoff elimination in week 16, and you're somehow asserting that Ricky is responsible for the Fins defense giving up 24 unanswered points in a quarter and a half?

And I know what you're going to say, the William's ineffectiveness stymied the offense which led to the 24-0 deficit, which would be fine if they didn't record play by plays

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/boxscore?gid=2...&page=plays

He screed up on one total drive in the first half (11:41 Q1) and did pretty well other than that. And even on that drive he still gave his team a 3rd and 6 which Henne couldn't complete.

So please enlighten me how Ricky's poor play got Miami in the situtation they were in wk16.

 
Shock6822 said:
BuckeyeArt said:
I don't understand the 10-13 carry per game projections at all. Last year, the Dolphin RBs had over 450 carries. When Brown was healthy, he and Williams received over 90% of the carries. The split was about 60/40 in favor of Brown. Assuming he is healthy, which it appears he will be, I can't see why that formula would change this year. Someone has to get the carries. The majority isn't going to go to Williams.Prior to his injury, Williams and Brown were on pace for about 400 carries. The improved passing game might steal some plays from the running game but it should also extend drives, allowing for about the same number of carries. Brown may not play 16 games but the same can be said for any RB. 240 carries, 1050 yards, 12 TDs, 30 rec, 240 yards, 1 TD
Click to expand...
Part of it is the passing game, part of it is the assumption Ronnie won't play a full 16 healthy (probably the biggest reason), and part of it is that between Polite, Cobbs, and Hilliard, there are maybe 5-10 carries per game that will be seen by other people. And yes, the same can be said for any RB, but it's more likely that Ronnie will miss games versus an RB who doesn't have an extended injury history and isn't coming off Lisfranc.
Click to expand...
If he doesn't have any setback in his recovery, which he hasn't, I don't see why you'd assume he would miss games. None of his injuries have been recurring problems. If he does miss games, it doesn't affect his carries per game, just his overall carries.The passing game should help the running game. As for the other 3 RBs, that number has been less than 3 carries per game the last 2 years. I can't see it jumping to 5-10 this year.
 
RB has been in the league five years and has played 16 games once. And what people are ignoring is that when he was in last year he wasn't giving you RB1 production past the first few games. 9 games, only two over 100 yards (136 and 115) and 3 of his last four games under 50 yards rushing. Add to that a better passing game, and yet another offseason surgery. Not seeing the reason for optimism here at all.

 
BuckeyeArt said:
Shock6822 said:
BuckeyeArt said:
I don't understand the 10-13 carry per game projections at all. Last year, the Dolphin RBs had over 450 carries. When Brown was healthy, he and Williams received over 90% of the carries. The split was about 60/40 in favor of Brown. Assuming he is healthy, which it appears he will be, I can't see why that formula would change this year. Someone has to get the carries. The majority isn't going to go to Williams.Prior to his injury, Williams and Brown were on pace for about 400 carries. The improved passing game might steal some plays from the running game but it should also extend drives, allowing for about the same number of carries. Brown may not play 16 games but the same can be said for any RB. 240 carries, 1050 yards, 12 TDs, 30 rec, 240 yards, 1 TD
Click to expand...
Part of it is the passing game, part of it is the assumption Ronnie won't play a full 16 healthy (probably the biggest reason), and part of it is that between Polite, Cobbs, and Hilliard, there are maybe 5-10 carries per game that will be seen by other people. And yes, the same can be said for any RB, but it's more likely that Ronnie will miss games versus an RB who doesn't have an extended injury history and isn't coming off Lisfranc.
Click to expand...
If he doesn't have any setback in his recovery, which he hasn't, I don't see why you'd assume he would miss games. None of his injuries have been recurring problems. If he does miss games, it doesn't affect his carries per game, just his overall carries.The passing game should help the running game. As for the other 3 RBs, that number has been less than 3 carries per game the last 2 years. I can't see it jumping to 5-10 this year.
Click to expand...
I do think they'll test the younger guys just to see what they have. Ronnie and Ricky are past their prime, and if they can find someone with potential (Hilliard seemed to do okay in limited touches), it'd be much cheaper to let one of them walk and have another RB come in. And I'm pretty sure theyre both either in contract years or coming soon. The passing game could help the running game, or could hurt it by taking away carries...I don't really have any stats on how improved passing games effect RB committees, so I won't say it'll go one way or the other, but the guy has played a full season exactly once in 5 years. He has multiple parts that have been hurt in some way, shape or form, and between surgeries and the pounding an RB takes on his body, I'd be shocked if he got anywhere near 250 carries like some people are projecting. Another factor to consider is that if the Dolphins are serious about contending, they'll probably want Ronnie down the stretch, and won't force feed him the ball 20 times a game.
 
sholditch said:
wk 10-15 he averaged 100 ypg and a td per game + some receiving yards. And you'r suggesting it was Ricky's poor play during that stretch that put the Fins in a position to be fighting playoff elimination in week 16, and you're somehow asserting that Ricky is responsible for the Fins defense giving up 24 unanswered points in a quarter and a half?

And I know what you're going to say, the William's ineffectiveness stymied the offense which led to the 24-0 deficit, which would be fine if they didn't record play by plays

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/boxscore?gid=2...&page=plays

He screed up on one total drive in the first half (11:41 Q1) and did pretty well other than that. And even on that drive he still gave his team a 3rd and 6 which Henne couldn't complete.

So please enlighten me how Ricky's poor play got Miami in the situtation they were in wk16.
Click to expand...
First, let's get the facts straight. Week 17 did matter. The Dolphins were playoff eligible heading into Week 17. While their chances were not great, that game did matter to them, so you were wrong on that and I am glad I checked it for the benefit of those reading the thread. So here you go, Weeks 15-17 where Ricky Williams and his 32 year old body rose to the occasion and led the Fins to an 0-3 finish by rushing for 3.6 YPC and receiving for 3.5 YPR in that three game stretch.

Week 15:

2-6-TEN 25 (13:59) Direct Snap to #34 (Shotgun) 34-R.Williams right guard to TEN 25 for no gain (97-T.Brown). FUMBLES (97-T.Brown), RECOVERED by TEN-33-M.Griffin at TEN 20. 33-M.Griffin to TEN 20 for no gain (Team).

WATCH HIGHLIGHT

Tennessee Titans at 13:52

1-10-TEN 20 (13:52) 10-V.Young pass short left to 80-B.Scaife to TEN 33 for 13 yards (51-A.Ayodele).

.....

4-6-MIA 6 (9:31) (Field Goal formation) 2-R.Bironas 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-K.Amato, Holder-6-B.Kern.
Click to expand...
OOPS!!!!!! Dolphins lost the ball on Tennessee's 20, which immediately results in a FG the other way for the Titans. That just so happens to be the margin of defeat as the Dolphins lose by 3.Week 16

Williams gets hurt to start the second half after putting up 51 yards on 15 touches on a whopping 3.4 yards per touch. The lack of offense puts the Dolphins in a 27-3 hole at halftime. Fortunately, Williams gets hurt early enough to allow time for Lex Hilliard to take his place and almost win the game for Miami. Hilliard energizes the Dolphins by putting up 86 yards on 12 touches and scores all the Dolphins TD's on the day. Dolphins win Hilliard's half 17-0, but still lose the game 27-20.

Week 17

Williams continues to be a drive killer by putting up 35 yards on 15 touches...2.3 yards a touch. Hilliard puts up ten yards a touch and gets in the end zone again, but RW's ineffectiveness kills the offense and they lose by 6.

So there you have it. Three awful performances. If you want to give him credit for playing well like I did earlier, you need to be honest about how he sucked to finish the year. He is not capable of taking more than ten to fifteen (max) touches away from Brown each game. Anything more than that over a brief period and he will not be able to handle it.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
H.K. said:
sholditch said:
wk 10-15 he averaged 100 ypg and a td per game + some receiving yards. And you'r suggesting it was Ricky's poor play during that stretch that put the Fins in a position to be fighting playoff elimination in week 16, and you're somehow asserting that Ricky is responsible for the Fins defense giving up 24 unanswered points in a quarter and a half?

And I know what you're going to say, the William's ineffectiveness stymied the offense which led to the 24-0 deficit, which would be fine if they didn't record play by plays

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/boxscore?gid=2...&page=plays

He screed up on one total drive in the first half (11:41 Q1) and did pretty well other than that. And even on that drive he still gave his team a 3rd and 6 which Henne couldn't complete.

So please enlighten me how Ricky's poor play got Miami in the situtation they were in wk16.
Click to expand...
First, let's get the facts straight. Week 17 did matter. The Dolphins were playoff eligible heading into Week 17. While their chances were not great, that game did matter to them, so you were wrong on that and I am glad I checked it for the benefit of those reading the thread. So here you go, Weeks 15-17 where Ricky Williams and his 32 year old body rose to the occasion and led the Fins to an 0-3 finish by rushing for 3.6 YPC and receiving for 3.5 YPR in that three game stretch.

Week 15:

2-6-TEN 25 (13:59) Direct Snap to #34 (Shotgun) 34-R.Williams right guard to TEN 25 for no gain (97-T.Brown). FUMBLES (97-T.Brown), RECOVERED by TEN-33-M.Griffin at TEN 20. 33-M.Griffin to TEN 20 for no gain (Team).

WATCH HIGHLIGHT

Tennessee Titans at 13:52

1-10-TEN 20 (13:52) 10-V.Young pass short left to 80-B.Scaife to TEN 33 for 13 yards (51-A.Ayodele).

.....

4-6-MIA 6 (9:31) (Field Goal formation) 2-R.Bironas 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-K.Amato, Holder-6-B.Kern.
Click to expand...
OOPS!!!!!! Dolphins lost the ball on Tennessee's 20, which immediately results in a FG the other way for the Titans. That just so happens to be the margin of defeat as the Dolphins lose by 3.Week 16

Williams gets hurt to start the second half after putting up 51 yards on 15 touches on a whopping 3.4 yards per touch. The lack of offense puts the Dolphins in a 27-3 hole at halftime. Fortunately, Williams gets hurt early enough to allow time for Lex Hilliard to take his place and almost win the game for Miami. Hilliard energizes the Dolphins by putting up 86 yards on 12 touches and scores all the Dolphins TD's on the day. Dolphins win Hilliard's half 17-0, but still lose the game 27-20.

Week 17

Williams continues to be a drive killer by putting up 35 yards on 15 touches...2.3 yards a touch. Hilliard puts up ten yards a touch and gets in the end zone again, but RW's ineffectiveness kills the offense and they lose by 6.

So there you have it. Three awful performances. If you want to give him credit for playing well like I did earlier, you need to be honest about how he sucked to finish the year. He is not capable of taking more than ten to fifteen (max) touches away from Brown each game. Anything more than that over a brief period and he will not be able to handle it.
Click to expand...
Are we also not taking into account the fact that it was the Ricky Williams show after Ronnie went down? Could it be that defenses realized that if they can shut him down by stacking the box, it would force Henne to pass to...ummm...wait...does Miami have receivers? I'm as surprised as the next guy that RW did what he did last year, but to lay blame on him for their playoff demise seems strange. Ricky was phenominal in his role last year. With a semi-healthy Ronnie back + Brandon Marshall to help stretch the field....I can see Ricky doing just fine and his YPC average back up to 4.2+. If Ronnie is to go down (as is his custom to do).....Ricky is likely a #1 RB again in 2010.
 
If you are counting on the aged Ricky Williams you are not being rational. He played ok last year but his end of season failure has been shown pretty clearly in this thread. Brown at least has potential to be a top ten runner, although people who want to downgrade him for injury risk have a legitimate claim. It depends on where you can get Brown. As for Ricky, I would rather have Hilliard. Brown recovers well from injuries and appears well on his way back from the foot injury. He played great last year and the key point that has been made in this thread is his uber PPG; this is a guy that gets you good value even if he gets hurt midway through the season. When he is healthy, you start him. When he isn't, you know you don't start him. The worst thing is a guy who puts up 10 or 11 PPG, always starts, but is inconsistent.

I project 220 carries, 4.5 ypc, 990 yards; 9 TDs; 30 receptions, 9 ypc, 270 receivering yards; 2 receiving TDs.

 
i'll just check back in at the end of the season, right or wrong. I think Ronnie doesn't play a full season, and nine games seems about right. It's not like the injuries don't add up after a while.

 
MrTwo94 said:
haterade said:
I hate to bring the non-haterade... but Miami's offense has gotten better not worse, he's still the lead back, and his FPPG is goofy high...

anyone who plans on having RB depth should be able to take him pretty confidently, even if he only plays half a season
Click to expand...
Geez, it was rough going for a while. Lots of Ronnie hate. But this guy said what I was planning to say: Ronnie Brown puts up ridiculous PPG numbers.Ronnie Brown has never averaged less than 4.2 ypc in a season. I would be very surprised if he has ever ranked outside the top 10 in fantasy points per game (since his rookie year). If he plays a full 16 games, I'd say 2008 is a baseline. The offense is only getting better. They now have not only a legit WR1, but a super stud WR1 to go along with a big armed QB. Just taking last year's first half and multiplying by two gives you 270/1132/14 with 24/164/0. Those touchdowns seem high, but if the offense improves as much as it should, that would not be hard to do.

My projection is for a full 16 games, but as always, draft some depth:

16 carries/game x 16 games = 256 carries x 4.4 ypc = 1126 yds 12 TD with 35 rec x 7.5 ypr = 263 yds 0 TD

I don't see how people can hate on him at RB21 with his ppg numbers. If he is indeed healthy then he'll be the steal of the draft. Even if he only plays 9 games. Look at the company around him: RB18-Pierre Thomas, RB19-LeSean McCoy, RB20-Joseph Addai, RB22-Matt Forte, RB23-Felix Jones, RB24-Brandon Jacobs, RB25-Jahvid Best, RB26-Marion Barber. I mean, really? Do any of them stand out to you? Pierre Thomas, Felix Jones, and Jacobs are all injury concerns, too. Ronnie Brown has had more 16 game seasons than any of those guys (sorry, Jacobs 38 carry rookie year doesn't count). Forte will be lucky to get 200 carries in that system. Best will not get 200 carries and is a bit of a health concern himself. Barber has never run for 1000 yards and looks to be getting less carries. McCoy is hardly exciting. Addai's whopping 3.8 ypc and 6.6 ypr make Donald Brown start to look appealing. Ronnie Brown has had his injury woes, but at RB21 grow a sack and draft for upside. He is head and shoulders more talented than everyone else around that range. I know people here are drinking the Jahvid koolaid but I bet Ronnie put up similar agility numbers while being twice his size. The guy is an elite talent on an improving team. For the price of RB21, I'll take two.
Click to expand...
:kicksrock: Injury prone or not, he's produced very well when healthy. Don't let him fall TOO far down the board.
 
What I want to know is why people think he's a good ppr back. When he's in the Wildcat he doesn't have any opportunity to catch passes unless he throws them to himself.

He had 14 receptions last year in 9 games. That projects to 24 catches in 16 games. He had 33 in 08.

 
Ronnie Brown to my knowledge is still an unsigned restricted FA...meaning he has not signed his tender to come to camp later this week. Might not mean much right now but camp is looming.

 
for those of you discussing his PPG...if I'm doing the math correctly, it's 9.25PPG in standard format. that doesn't seem gaudy to me.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
Ronnie Brown to my knowledge is still an unsigned restricted FA...meaning he has not signed his tender to come to camp later this week. Might not mean much right now but camp is looming.
Click to expand...
Not really an issue - due to his contract, he didn't suffer a 'penalty' like VJax did. He gets the same amount either way. Also, he's been attending all training camps and has already stated that he won't hold out. The Dolphins have already said they won't give him a long term contract. If he wants a big deal, his best choice is to show up and blow the doors off of everyone...
 
Ronnie feeling good. Going to be great value being drafted at the end of the 3rd.

"It felt good to finally get back in the endzone," said Brown, who missed the final seven games last season after undergoing surgery on his right foot. "I feel real good. It was a little different coming back from the foot injury. It was a little easier than the knee. Everything has fallen into place as far as timetables. Everything looks good. Everything feels good. I'm just looking forward to the season to start."

Brown also said he was pleased with the offense after a lackluster performance in the preseason opener.

"It was exciting," he said. "Obviously, for us, the first week we didn't show as much as we should have. We weren't clicking on all cylinders like we've been doing in practice. This week we made some improvement. It was good to get everybody involved."

I also asked him about showing too much of the Wildcat in preseason.

"It's something that everyone knows about know," he said. "There's really not anything to hide as far as showing a little bit of it in the preseason. It's something we need to work on as well. So we ran a few plays. We didn't have a lot of success, but it was good to get it on film to see where we can improve."

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/spor..._complete.html

 
=Smackdown= said:
Ronnie feeling good. Going to be great value being drafted at the end of the 3rd.

"It felt good to finally get back in the endzone," said Brown, who missed the final seven games last season after undergoing surgery on his right foot. "I feel real good. It was a little different coming back from the foot injury. It was a little easier than the knee. Everything has fallen into place as far as timetables. Everything looks good. Everything feels good. I'm just looking forward to the season to start."

Brown also said he was pleased with the offense after a lackluster performance in the preseason opener.

"It was exciting," he said. "Obviously, for us, the first week we didn't show as much as we should have. We weren't clicking on all cylinders like we've been doing in practice. This week we made some improvement. It was good to get everybody involved."

I also asked him about showing too much of the Wildcat in preseason.

"It's something that everyone knows about know," he said. "There's really not anything to hide as far as showing a little bit of it in the preseason. It's something we need to work on as well. So we ran a few plays. We didn't have a lot of success, but it was good to get it on film to see where we can improve."

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/spor..._complete.html
Click to expand...
Like him but too scare to take him in 3rd/4th round.

 
Got Ronnie Brown in the middle of the 7th round tonight. I wasn't overly wild about him - never really have been - but at that spot, I couldn't pass him up. He is my number 3 RB behind A. Foster and J. Best. I would say middle 7th round is pretty good value, wouldn't you, SP?

 
Jason Wood said:
I too am skeptical of Ronnie Brown until proven otherwise. I recognize that my skepticism simply means he won't be on my teams, because his ADP suggests that enough owners will be willing to draft him thinking he could be a Top 10 fantasy back if he finally sticks to it for a full 16 games. To my mind, I look at how awesome Ricky Williams was after Ronnie got hurt, and yet he's currently coming off the board at RB27. I just don't see what incentive the Dolphins coaches have to give Ronnie the majority of touches even if he's healthy. To me, if you're doing a probability tree, the fattest branch is a true committee between the backs.
Click to expand...
how bout that ronnie has played excellently when healthy? and that ricky williams is now 33 years old! anyway, it will be a committee ofc but i would guess ronnie gets like 55-60% of the carries and 75% of the gl opps. historically, they love him on the gl. even if its 5050 carries split, the phins run a ton.

injury and recovery is the only issue with ronnie and its a gamble i am willing to take.

 
Jason Wood said:
I say tomato, you say tomato I guess. :blackdot:



I look at the last 7 games and see a 311 carry, 1,287 yard, 11 TD pace for the guy, even though the Dolphins main offensive weapon up until that point was neutralized. To me that speaks volumes about what Ricky can and should be asked to do. Why relegate him to backup duties even if Ronnie is fully healthy? I recognize that is a risk, but it just seems illogical to me that they won't both at least be heavily involved, and you still have a better than average chance that Ronnie will struggle/stay hurt and then Ricky has Top 10-12 potential IMHO.
Click to expand...
you can say the same about ronnie tho, if you extrapolate his seasons:06: 297 for 1246

07: 272 for 1387

08: 214 for 916 (didnt start 3 games, recovering from previous season acl)

09: 261 for 1150

and you relegate ricky to backup bc that decreases the injury and fatigue risk of BOTH rbs and likely increases their efficiency. a poster above showed that rickys ypc dropped from 5.1 to 4.1 after assuming the starting roll.

 
I would agree that Ricky seems less of a threat this year to Brown than last, if only due to the heavy load that Ricky had to take on down the stretch.

By most accounts, Ricky certainly seemed to wear down and at age 33, it may be hard for him to duplicate another renassiance season.

If Ronnie can finally stay healthy for a full season, this could be the year that he shows why he was drafted so highly out of Auburn. And in a contract year, he's got a lot to prove since the next contract (wherever it is) will likely be his last.

 
Ghost Rider said:
Got Ronnie Brown in the middle of the 7th round tonight. I wasn't overly wild about him - never really have been - but at that spot, I couldn't pass him up. He is my number 3 RB behind A. Foster and J. Best. I would say middle 7th round is pretty good value, wouldn't you, SP?
Click to expand...
7th round is very good for Brown. I'd start him over either of your first 2 running backs while he's healthy.Personally, I think Ronnie is a good pick from the 5th round on in a 12 team draft. As long as your confident about your depth and can handle him getting injured he's a stud when healthy.
 
After watching the Fins this training camp.....it is evident it will be at a minimum a 50/50 split for Ricky and Ronnie. If Brown can stay healthy and productive you could see that shift to a 60/40 ratio.

I think Ronnie in the 7th is decent value but Ricky even later is again the better play this year. It has just become apparent now more than ever the Dolphins will not use Ronnie as a 3 down workhorse every week, every game. They rather have 2 fresh backs and I can see why. Ricky still has "it".

With that I will lower my expectations to:

225 carries 880 yards 6 TD's

32 receptions 245 yards 2 TD's

If Ricky were to get hurt...obviously these numbers are low.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I think the signing of David Martin really bumped up Brown's value.

If you break down the numbers, Ronnie is a much better back out of single-back formations. Ricky is better out of I-formations. Thing is, 2-TE formations are statistically the most efficient passing formations for the Dolphins. So with the return of David Martin, expect a lot more 2-TE formations, thus a lot more singleback formations for Brown.

As has already been stated, Brown is a FPPG monster when healthy. The only question is whether he can stay healthy. With the upside of a top-10 RB, I would certainly take Brown as early as the 4th round.

 
I like him, but I'm avoiding him irrationally. And I'm comfortable with that.

I get that predicting injuries is a fool's game, but the guy can't seem to stay healthy when all is roses. Coming off a lisfranc thing, I have like 25% of the confidence I'd usually have that he'll stay upright...which wasn't that much to begin with.

I'll just congratulate whoever gets him on a likely steal, and put my eggs into baskets elsewhere.

 
big0mar said:
I think the signing of David Martin really bumped up Brown's value. If you break down the numbers, Ronnie is a much better back out of single-back formations. Ricky is better out of I-formations. Thing is, 2-TE formations are statistically the most efficient passing formations for the Dolphins. So with the return of David Martin, expect a lot more 2-TE formations, thus a lot more singleback formations for Brown.As has already been stated, Brown is a FPPG monster when healthy. The only question is whether he can stay healthy. With the upside of a top-10 RB, I would certainly take Brown as early as the 4th round.
Click to expand...
They brought in David Martin for his pass catching skills not his blocking skills. Thay had 2 other TE's who are better blockers and one of them was just cut due to a broken foot.So I don't think David Martin will enhance his value at all.
 
Mello said:
Ghost Rider said:
Got Ronnie Brown in the middle of the 7th round tonight. I wasn't overly wild about him - never really have been - but at that spot, I couldn't pass him up. He is my number 3 RB behind A. Foster and J. Best. I would say middle 7th round is pretty good value, wouldn't you, SP?
Click to expand...
7th round is very good for Brown. I'd start him over either of your first 2 running backs while he's healthy.Personally, I think Ronnie is a good pick from the 5th round on in a 12 team draft. As long as your confident about your depth and can handle him getting injured he's a stud when healthy.
Click to expand...
Yep. Like I said, he is my 3rd RB, and I am not even counting on him playing every game, but when he does play, he is always great. He is one of those players I somehow never get, so I am almost expecting him to flame out and do nada now that I finally have him on one of my teams. :lol:
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Todem said:
big0mar said:
I think the signing of David Martin really bumped up Brown's value. If you break down the numbers, Ronnie is a much better back out of single-back formations. Ricky is better out of I-formations. Thing is, 2-TE formations are statistically the most efficient passing formations for the Dolphins. So with the return of David Martin, expect a lot more 2-TE formations, thus a lot more singleback formations for Brown.As has already been stated, Brown is a FPPG monster when healthy. The only question is whether he can stay healthy. With the upside of a top-10 RB, I would certainly take Brown as early as the 4th round.
Click to expand...
They brought in David Martin for his pass catching skills not his blocking skills. Thay had 2 other TE's who are better blockers and one of them was just cut due to a broken foot.So I don't think David Martin will enhance his value at all.
Click to expand...
Did you not understand what I meant? I never said anything about David Martin as a blocker. I said David Martin being on the roster means they will run more 2-TE formations. Martin's blocking skills are irrelevant.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Scoresman
Things I'm Noticing while doing Projections for each Team/Player
2 3 4
Replies
156
Views
5K
TheWinz
TheWinz
Scoresman
2025 Shark Pool Rankings Contest - Taking Submissions - Consensus Rankings are here! Sort of...
Replies
12
Views
914
Scoresman
Scoresman
Joe Bryant
Training Camp Need To Know - 8.5.25
Replies
19
Views
530
Bri
B

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top