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Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller & Marshawn Lynch, RBs, Buffalo Bills (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller & Marshawn Lynch, RBs, Buffalo Bills

Player Page Link: Fred Jackson Player Page

Player Page Link: C.J. Spiller Player Page

Player Page Link: Marshawn Lynch Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

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While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
This is admittedly a near impossible situation to handicap with any confidence. Heading into this offseason, I thought Fred Jackson would be one of the great value plays at his position this year, and when the Bills added Spiller in the draft I was even more resolved to target Jackson, particularly in PPR leagues. But the fly in the ointment is Marshawn Lynch, who I think has surprised most by remaining on the roster. Right now, given what may be the worst offensive line in football and no clear QB, the Shark move may simply be to avoid this entire situation. But with Spiller (RB27) and Jackson (RB30), going in the mid rounds while Lynch (RB53) is going very late, there is a potential arbitrage opportunity in play.

I've admittedly let my lack of enthusiasm for Spiller color a bit of my thinking on this one. I'm in the "show me" camp on Spiller so until he proves it at the NFL level, I'm just not buying him in the same way I would Ryan Mathews and Jahvid Best. I look at what Jackson did in 2009 when given a full workload, and it's hard to imagine why the Bills aren't trying to build around him. They have SO many holes offensively and yet it seems the coaches felt Jackson wasn't the bedrock many of us at Footballguys did.

 
A poor offensive line, a team that will play a lot of games from behind and a QB that doesn't scare the defense away from playing 8 in the box doesn't make it easy for running backs. It's hard to be bullish on any of these Rb's but I don't think the guy to have is Lynch, so that narrows it down to either Jackson or Spiller. I think Jackson's running style fits the weather of Buffalo better than Spiller and the hype of any rookie rb may leave room for a little value for Jackson.

Fred Jackson 820 yards and 5 td's 25 receptions for 188 yards 1 td

CJ Spiller 560 yards and 4 td's 28 recpetions for 270 yards and 1td

M. Lynch 220 yards and 1 td 11 receptions for 104 yards 0 td

 
I think Spiller is the lead back and Jackson is the backup, and Lynch is the starter...in Seattle.

Buffalo has no reason to give Jackson the job and probably did not like his inconsistency last year. 375 of his 1k yards came in two games, and most of those in a meaningless tilt against Indy wk17 with Indy pulling most of their starters completely.

I see Spiller winning the job in camp either through his superior talent or through the Bills wanting to get on with the rebuilding process, and probably a little of both

Spiller: 235 carries x 4.3 = 1010 yards & 7 TDs on the ground, 55 rec x 7.5 = 412 yards and 3 TDs receiving

Jackson: 200 carries x 4.1 = 820 yards & 3 TDs on ground, 10 rec x 6.5 = 65 yards receiving

Lynch I think gets traded. If not he'll get some GL work but little else. I view my projection on Spiller's carries as a little on the conservative side.

 
Assuming Lynch gets dealt (still think its better than 50% he does.....any major inj to an rb corps or SEA deciding to upgrade),

that leaves Spiller and Jackson.

Given that BUF WR corp is mediocre (thats being kind :lmao: ) Gailey would be wise to use Spiller in the slot quite a bit.

Its already been noted in another thread how this would be beneficial for SDG w/ Sproles given the current situation w/ VJAX.

Add to the fact that Jackson is more the "power back", Im thinking the following:

JACKSON 210 att @ 4.3 = 900 32 rec @ 8.2 = 260 7 TD total = 190 pts ppg

*note...he has proven over 3 yrs that he is a very good receiver avg above 8.0 per recpt

SPILLER 160 att @ 4.7 = 750 45 rec @ 9.0 = 400 7 TD total = 202 pts ppg

*Im expecting more long breakaway plays from him, ala Felix Jones type player

Again, this assumes Lynch is not in the picture.

 
The situation in Buffalo can't be worse. Poor line, horrible QB's, terrible sloppy weather, bad defense....playing from behind, playing catchup, playing arguably the strongest defenses in their own division.

Without tossing out stats, I predict all 3 will be drafted in redraft, and that all 3 will be available on the WW at some point this season.

 
Chan Gailey has always shown he likes to run the football. I think if they can get any production out of a suspect OL that Buffalo is going to surprise a few people and at least have some semblence of a rushing attack. The good news is they have at least 2 strong RBs in Jackson and Spiller, but I would leave Lynch alone as the Bills will try and trade him before the season starts...if they can't he'll be on the team but I think in a much lesser role than we saw in years 1 and 2. They didn't draft Spiller at #9 to watch him sit around and rot, I can almost promise you. Jackson has been solid lately but he also is not going to be the focal point. Spiller can catch the ball and Buffalo has lamost nothing at WR2 and TE so look for him to be active.

CJ Spiller 12 carries agame which is 192, give him 850 yds rushing and and a few Tds. I also see him snaring about 40-45+ balls for another 350 yds and a Td or two along the way.

CJ Spiller: 192-850-5Td plus 45-350-2Td receiving...1,200 yds and 7 Tds as a rookie.

Fred Jackson: 160-700-4Td, 24-160...860 total yds and 4Tds

Lynch: scratch

Spiller is going to get plenty of touches.

 
Reports suggest the Bills will accept nothing less than a 2nd round pick. Pretty tough to move Lynch at that price.

 
HITMANMVP96 said:
Reports suggest the Bills will accept nothing less than a 2nd round pick. Pretty tough to move Lynch at that price.
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Pure speculation but I think that price will come down before the season starts. I can't see them holding on for Lynch when they have so many other glaring needs.
 
Routilla said:
Pass on all BUF RBs.
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The upside of Spiller is what keeps me intrigued about him. I think this guy is gonna be all over the field considering the lack of playmakers in the offense. I would take him in the late middle rounds because I have a gut feeling Lynch isn't going to be there and even so, not be much of a factor this year.
 
Buffalo's offense is scary. It reminds me a lot of Oakland of the last few years. No leadership at the head stifles the air attack and allows defenses to solely focus on the ground game. It doesn't matter too much who emerges from this mess. They won't be more than a low #2 or high #3 back fantasy wise.

Fred Jackson has the best chance early on since Marshawn lynch and CJ Spiller have a lot of unknowns surrounding them. Spiller may have a lengthy hold out that will stunt his growth and Lynch may be traded. Jackson should see a similar start to the season that he had last year. He will be good for a few weeks and then fade away once Spiller works into the plan more. If Marshawn doesn't get traded, then it could be an even shorter stint. Jackson is worth a Mid to Late round draft pick for the fact that he will have value early in the season.

Marshawn Lynch has the potential to be a good back this season but not as a Bill. If a team out there like Seattle scoops him up, he could have some productive games late season. Not worth a high or mid draft pick though. Nothing but a late round flier or a waiver wire pickup would be worth the value on Lynch.

CJ Spiller has the most potential for production and bust out of the 3. If he gets into camp on time and learns the offense, he could be producing legit numbers by weeks 7 or 8. Prime time to make a run to the playoffs. A lengthy hold out though could stunt his growth making him almost worthless. Not that WR and RB are the same but looking at Crabtree last year and seeing how ineffective fantasy wise he was makes me leary of Spiller's decision to hold out. This guy is worth a flier though in the late rounds much the same way people took a shot at Glen Coffee, Justin Forsett and Shonn Greene last year. May not work out, but if it does, it could help you to the playoffs.

 
Insein said:
Buffalo's offense is scary. It reminds me a lot of Oakland of the last few years. No leadership at the head stifles the air attack and allows defenses to solely focus on the ground game. It doesn't matter too much who emerges from this mess. They won't be more than a low #2 or high #3 back fantasy wise.
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Last year Fred Jackson was a high #2 RB in PPR with 66% of the carries compared to Lynch. He had 46 receptions compared to Lynch's 28. Buffalo had three different QBs rotating throughout the year, and still found success on the ground. If one particular RB emerges as the main guy they could be a #1 RB in larger leagues smashing their ADP. That type of pick is what really puts a team in contention.
 
ATC1 said:
Insein said:
Buffalo's offense is scary. It reminds me a lot of Oakland of the last few years. No leadership at the head stifles the air attack and allows defenses to solely focus on the ground game. It doesn't matter too much who emerges from this mess. They won't be more than a low #2 or high #3 back fantasy wise.
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Last year Fred Jackson was a high #2 RB in PPR with 66% of the carries compared to Lynch. He had 46 receptions compared to Lynch's 28. Buffalo had three different QBs rotating throughout the year, and still found success on the ground. If one particular RB emerges as the main guy they could be a #1 RB in larger leagues smashing their ADP. That type of pick is what really puts a team in contention.
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They also had the threat of TO. Granted, he didn't do too much on the field but having that kind of weapon on the outside regardless of who's at QB changes the defense. This year they have Lee Evans again by himself. Teams will not respect that nearly as much. The formula to stop Buffalo will be to stack 8 in the box and make them try to throw. I don't see Jackson having as good a year.
 
IMO Spiller is geting too much love. I think being drafted so high and having great speed create a situation where people expect good things to happen, but we have seen nothing that looks like he can power through the line or block. Reggie Bush issues with less wiggle. Jackson was a legit NFL starting RB last year and shouldn't have lost anything. I am not a big fan, but his numbers behind that OL and that 'no threat' passing game say he is a pretty solid producer. I think that if you want power running (and Gailey does) and if you need blocking on third 3rd and long (and this OL does) its hard to sit Jackson a lot for Spille on bread-and-butter downs. I wish the kid well, but think he has a terrible situation and bad fit skill set to have a big rookie year. And I do think Spiller will get consistent work, the OL will stilll suck and (particularly if Lynch stays, needs some carries to maintain trade value and might vulture a TD now and then) this will keep Jackson from being a decent option, except as a bye-weeker or deep flex.

Only Fred gets close to 800 rushing and only Spiller gets 300 passing (he'll get the frequent desperation-comeback role). I stay away completely in re-draft, unless Jackson falls to a 4th-5th RB slot.

 
Jackson 200 900 4 25 170 1

Spiller 110 500 3 55 440 3

I expect Lynch to be elsewhere. I think they'll end up accepting a 3rd/4th pick.

 
I got Spiller in a keep 4 league in the mid 4th... thats really a 6th rounder with all the keeps involved; I thought that was great value considering Best and Hardesty were taken in the mid 2nd

 
Anyone here think Spiller could end up with 50% of the workload?

If Spiller could get 200 carries and 50 receptions and KR duty he would probably be a top10 RB in my league.

 
I think Spiller gets at least 65% of the workload this season. But I'm happy to keep that to myself. He is the SOD in redraft right now.

 
Jason Wood said:
This is admittedly a near impossible situation to handicap with any confidence. Heading into this offseason, I thought Fred Jackson would be one of the great value plays at his position this year, and when the Bills added Spiller in the draft I was even more resolved to target Jackson, particularly in PPR leagues. But the fly in the ointment is Marshawn Lynch, who I think has surprised most by remaining on the roster. Right now, given what may be the worst offensive line in football and no clear QB, the Shark move may simply be to avoid this entire situation. But with Spiller (RB27) and Jackson (RB30), going in the mid rounds while Lynch (RB53) is going very late, there is a potential arbitrage opportunity in play.

I've admittedly let my lack of enthusiasm for Spiller color a bit of my thinking on this one. I'm in the "show me" camp on Spiller so until he proves it at the NFL level, I'm just not buying him in the same way I would Ryan Mathews and Jahvid Best. I look at what Jackson did in 2009 when given a full workload, and it's hard to imagine why the Bills aren't trying to build around him. They have SO many holes offensively and yet it seems the coaches felt Jackson wasn't the bedrock many of us at Footballguys did.
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with the cloudy picture and where you have to take Spiller and Jackson (almost late RB2/early RB3) not sure I could take that chance right now.....lots of people writing off Lynch in here as well, but off field issues aside, Lynch is still a very talented player.....with many teams going to two or even three back systems, teams may not just get rid of guys like Lynch, so I do not think it is fair in many of these posts to just take him out of the picture....I think he has to be figured in until something changes.....it's not like they won't play him if they have him....who knows what the new coaching staff's attitude will be with regard to Lynch....as of right now, all things considered, I lean toward staying away completely or if I have an early draft maybe pulling the trigger on Lynch late, cause he will either still be in the mix or he will get traded somewhere where he may end up getting drafted before Jackson and Spiller in later drafts.......

 
This won't even be a discussion after training camp. Seriously, let's take a look at the real facts around this situation:

The Bills, with glaring needs on all sides of the ball, the Bills used their 9th overall to take Spiller. We can assume that they did this because they felt that Spiller was a truly special player they had big plans for. They passed on three decent prospects at QB and several at WR, O-line, and defense.

Jackson:

undrafted back, 6-1, 215, has played three seasons for the Bills, his first two as backup to Lynch when he averaged a nice 4.8 ypc. Last season he carved out a role for himself on the Bills offense and averaged 4.4 on 237 carries for a nice FANTASY season. But let's break it down game by game, assuming that the Bills actually intended on winning last season:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/8063/g...FF_j6n7PwX.uLYF

Wk 1 & 2: The Bills were likely kicking themselves for keeping Jackson on the bench for two years. He explodes out of the gates and has monster games against NE and TB, two historically stout defenses. No knock on Jackson here, he performed way above expectations.

Wk 3: Had a decent game against NO with around 100 total yards and 3.9 ypc. Not bad against one of the best run defenses in the league. Bills are 1-2 at this point.

Wk 4: Only gets 9 carries against Miami in a blowout loss. Averages 4.7. The loss can't really be blamed on him

Wk 5: He absolutely stinks up the joint against Cleveland averaging 2.6 ypc against a bad defense. Bills lose 6-3.

Wk 6: Against the Jets he only manages 52 yards on 15 carries and no receptions. Since week 2 Jackson hasn't had a run longer than 12 yards

Wk 7: 5 carries for 2 yards. Lynch ran 17 times for 40. Bills actually win this one because of Delhomme's three picks. Bills are now 3-4.

Wk 8: another stinker, 9 for 28 with no receptions. Bills lose.

WK9: bye

Wk 10: 8 for 48. Lynch and Jackson split carries. Bills lose watching Chris Johnson run all over them. Worth noting that in week 10 Jackson has yet to score a rushing TD and only has one rec TD

Wk 11: 8 for 35 and 4 for 20. Bills lose to Jags.

Wk 12: As far as real football Jackson's best game of the season. 110+ combined and 2 TDs. Bills beat Miami.

Wk 13: Plunges against Jets for 13 for 31. Adds 3 catches for 24. Bills lose by 6.

Wk 14: Great game against KC, 99 ru but no TDs. Bills win.

Wk 15: Another good yardage game with no TDs, Bills lose to Pats.

wk 16: A stinker against ATL, Bills lose, season over

Wk 17: Jackson takes advantage of playing against the Colt's second and third stringers in a meaningless game for a massive (and meaningless) 212 yards. Bills destroy Colts taxi squad 30-7.

When you look at the year end total it seems like Jackson was a slightly above-average back with low TDs. Based on the fact that the Bills picked the most explosive RB in the draft and ignored other positions, I think it's safe to say that at year's end they didn't see Jackson as being good enough to carry the team. And his game log shows it. What you saw was a RB who exploded at the beginning of the year and went into a major swoon that convinced his team that he couldn't really be depended on. He also showed an inability to break long runs and score touchdowns. And the truth is that if the Colts had been competing in week 17 instead of mailing it in, Jackson likely would have finished with 850-900 rushing yards for the season.

Last season obviously convinced the Bills management that their biggest need was an explosive, big-play back. Spiller is every bit of that. I think the best way to handicap this situation is to read the obvious signs coming from the ball club, the moves they made, and by examining what they saw in their running game last season. We expect it to be a timeshare, but I don't think it will be. Lynch proved that he had lost a step and wasn't as effective. Jackson showed himself to be at times great and others completely ineffective. Spiller came into the draft as the highest rated back with a rep for big plays and scoring touchdowns.

Now, given what the Bills saw last season and what they did in the draft, what reason do we really have to NOT think Spiller will see the majority of touches?

 
Because he is an untested rookie with no indication yet of whether he can block behind an OL where that will be a matter of life and death for his QBs with a similar absence of evidence that he can run between the tackles?

 
Isn't that what camp is for? And I assume you are throwing out all college experience (since scouting reports indicate he can do both fairly well), so the same can be said for any rookie RB.

 
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scouting reports are mixed on that. A lot of the ones I have read say he breaks tackles well, has a solid if compact build, and would make a fine goal-line runner.

People are sleeping on this guy because they only look at Jackson's year end stats and see a productive 1k runner with a good ypc. I'm telling you, Jackson will be a backup this season.

ETA: Tween the tackles at :28 and 1:00. Looks good to me

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFcecMcS6bA

 
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sholditch said:
scouting reports are mixed on that. A lot of the ones I have read say he breaks tackles well, has a solid if compact build, and would make a fine goal-line runner.

People are sleeping on this guy because they only look at Jackson's year end stats and see a productive 1k runner with a good ypc. I'm telling you, Jackson will be a backup this season.

ETA: Tween the tackles at :28 and 1:00. Looks good to me

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFcecMcS6bA
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Show me some broken tackles....lowering his shoulder...etc.

Show me GL success plays.

As for your clip....at :28 he hesitates...then runs....hardly impressive. Didn't see another run at 1:00. But that's one run out of a 5+ minute long clip.

 
whatever, believe what you want. I never said he was a pounder. I said he was a back capable of big plays that were obviously missing from the Buffalo offense last year, and that he was capable of scoring TDs. CJ certainly isn't the most punishing runner I've seen but he did ok. I saw the dude fly backwards after several big hits last year.

 
sholditch said:
whatever, believe what you want. I never said he was a pounder. I said he was a back capable of big plays that were obviously missing from the Buffalo offense last year, and that he was capable of scoring TDs. CJ certainly isn't the most punishing runner I've seen but he did ok. I saw the dude fly backwards after several big hits last year.
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Why would you get upset if it happened? He has tons of highlights everywhere.

CJ is a change of pace, 3rd down, return guy. He bounces most runs outside.....doesn't finish off runs....and will disappoint FF owners thinking he will ever be a RB1.

 
we shall see. I see an obvious improvement over the existing competition on a team that finished 8th in ypc last year.

 
benson_will_lead_the_way said:
sholditch said:
whatever, believe what you want. I never said he was a pounder. I said he was a back capable of big plays that were obviously missing from the Buffalo offense last year, and that he was capable of scoring TDs. CJ certainly isn't the most punishing runner I've seen but he did ok. I saw the dude fly backwards after several big hits last year.
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Why would you get upset if it happened? He has tons of highlights everywhere.

CJ is a change of pace, 3rd down, return guy. He bounces most runs outside.....doesn't finish off runs....and will disappoint FF owners thinking he will ever be a RB1.
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I think he was talking about Chris Johnson not being a punishing runner and getting flung back on one arm tackles (I added a little), not Spiller. And what you just said about Spiller is pretty much exactly what most people were saying about Chris Johnson after he was drafted. "A change of pace, 3rd down, return guy. He bounces most runs outside.....doesn't finish off runs....and will disappoint FF owners thinking he will ever be a RB1".

Not saying Spiller is the next Chris Johnson (I hope at least Spiller has more class than Johnson) but it all sounds very familiar.

 
Mr. Peterson said:
benson_will_lead_the_way said:
sholditch said:
whatever, believe what you want. I never said he was a pounder. I said he was a back capable of big plays that were obviously missing from the Buffalo offense last year, and that he was capable of scoring TDs. CJ certainly isn't the most punishing runner I've seen but he did ok. I saw the dude fly backwards after several big hits last year.
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Why would you get upset if it happened? He has tons of highlights everywhere.

CJ is a change of pace, 3rd down, return guy. He bounces most runs outside.....doesn't finish off runs....and will disappoint FF owners thinking he will ever be a RB1.
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I think he was talking about Chris Johnson not being a punishing runner and getting flung back on one arm tackles (I added a little), not Spiller. And what you just said about Spiller is pretty much exactly what most people were saying about Chris Johnson after he was drafted. "A change of pace, 3rd down, return guy. He bounces most runs outside.....doesn't finish off runs....and will disappoint FF owners thinking he will ever be a RB1".

Not saying Spiller is the next Chris Johnson (I hope at least Spiller has more class than Johnson) but it all sounds very familiar.
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I should have clarified...CJ=Spiller.

Chris Johnson will at least lower his shoulder and finish off runs...Spiller doesn't do that....he will try and bounce everything(Reggie Bush).

 
benson_will_lead_the_way said:
Mr. Peterson said:
benson_will_lead_the_way said:
sholditch said:
whatever, believe what you want. I never said he was a pounder. I said he was a back capable of big plays that were obviously missing from the Buffalo offense last year, and that he was capable of scoring TDs. CJ certainly isn't the most punishing runner I've seen but he did ok. I saw the dude fly backwards after several big hits last year.
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Why would you get upset if it happened? He has tons of highlights everywhere.

CJ is a change of pace, 3rd down, return guy. He bounces most runs outside.....doesn't finish off runs....and will disappoint FF owners thinking he will ever be a RB1.
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I think he was talking about Chris Johnson not being a punishing runner and getting flung back on one arm tackles (I added a little), not Spiller. And what you just said about Spiller is pretty much exactly what most people were saying about Chris Johnson after he was drafted. "A change of pace, 3rd down, return guy. He bounces most runs outside.....doesn't finish off runs....and will disappoint FF owners thinking he will ever be a RB1".

Not saying Spiller is the next Chris Johnson (I hope at least Spiller has more class than Johnson) but it all sounds very familiar.
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I should have clarified...CJ=Spiller.

Chris Johnson will at least lower his shoulder and finish off runs...Spiller doesn't do that....he will try and bounce everything(Reggie Bush).
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Would love to see some clips from his college highlights of Chris Johnson doing that. I'll wait :lmao:
 
gianmarco said:
benson_will_lead_the_way said:
I should have clarified...CJ=Spiller.

Chris Johnson will at least lower his shoulder and finish off runs...Spiller doesn't do that....he will try and bounce everything(Reggie Bush).
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Would love to see some clips from his college highlights of Chris Johnson doing that. I'll wait :unsure:
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:50- Gets near sideline and lowers shoulder to finish off the run.

1:00- Gets near the GL and finishes off the run.

1:25- Aggressive Stiff arm

1:40- Finishing off a run near the GL

1:50- At the GL...lowers shoulder to score a TD.

Hope you enjoyed your popcorn...

 
benson_will_lead_the_way said:
gianmarco said:
I should have clarified...CJ=Spiller.

Chris Johnson will at least lower his shoulder and finish off runs...Spiller doesn't do that....he will try and bounce everything(Reggie Bush).
Click to expand...
Would love to see some clips from his college highlights of Chris Johnson doing that. I'll wait :popcorn:
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What happens at the 5:25 mark? As for lowering his shoulder, what about the 1:20 mark? Since we're doing "stiff arms", Spiller does the same thing at 2:36 mark and "finishes his run". Guess he's not physical enough to block either like the 4:05 mark? How about finishing the run after that at the GL at the 4:15 mark when he lowers his shoulder and gets in?

Neither Chris Johnson nor Spiller were physical runners at the collegiate level. That's because they oftentimes didn't have to be. The vast majority of their runs are bounced outside with blazing speed. They didn't seek contact at that level like Lynch or Benson or AP. That does NOT mean they can't do it at the next level. It doesn't mean they can either, but those two ideas aren't mutually exclusive. Chris Johnson has since proven he can indeed get physical when need be and can run inside. It certainly wasn't anything he had proven beforehand. Spiller, likewise, will have to prove he can. But just because he didn't do it often in the NCAA doesn't mean he can't do it when asked to. Time will tell.

 
Gianmarco, don't bother. He said he wanted to see him run between the tackles, I showed him two clips, and he said he wanted to see him finish runs and lower his shoulder. Now that you've showed him that he'll want to see him do cartwheels into the end zone. He obviously doesn't want to be convinced or persuaded.

 
This kid was taken 9th overall in the draft. You are dreaming if you think Jackson or Lynch are anything more than backups. This kid will get 250 touches minimum. He is a special playmaker.

235 carries 1050 yds

50 catches 450 yds

10 total tds

The one true knock on this kid is the putrid O-line, not the other rb's. But the great ones work around that problem.

 
Routilla said:
Is BUF really going to keep Lynch on the roster with CJ and Fred? Why not trade him for a draft pick?
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one of the great mysteries to me also. My take is Fred proves he is as old as his age and fails finally this year or before next and CJ becomes the scat back that he probably is; leaving Lynch in control by 2011. There seems no other way to explain the GM and management on this one and they get to do some kind of weird discipline lesson to lay on Lynch to boot.
 
texasbirdfan said:
Routilla said:
Is BUF really going to keep Lynch on the roster with CJ and Fred? Why not trade him for a draft pick?
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one of the great mysteries to me also. My take is Fred proves he is as old as his age and fails finally this year or before next and CJ becomes the scat back that he probably is; leaving Lynch in control by 2011. There seems no other way to explain the GM and management on this one and they get to do some kind of weird discipline lesson to lay on Lynch to boot.
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So just to be clear, you think the Bills drafted CJ Spiller at #9 overall because they plan to use him as a scat back. Correct?
 
Alex P Keaton said:
texasbirdfan said:
Routilla said:
Is BUF really going to keep Lynch on the roster with CJ and Fred? Why not trade him for a draft pick?
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one of the great mysteries to me also. My take is Fred proves he is as old as his age and fails finally this year or before next and CJ becomes the scat back that he probably is; leaving Lynch in control by 2011. There seems no other way to explain the GM and management on this one and they get to do some kind of weird discipline lesson to lay on Lynch to boot.
Click to expand...
So just to be clear, you think the Bills drafted CJ Spiller at #9 overall because they plan to use him as a scat back. Correct?
Click to expand...
That is some good stuff!
 
Without injuries changing the dynamic, I suspect Spiller will get no more than 45% of the total carries in 2010 and probably more in the 35% range...

There are several variables to consider here.

I suspect the Bills to shop Lynch for trade as long as Spiller works out. In order to do so, they'll need to give him some work to prove he still has value.

Both Lynch and Jackson are league vets who can get the job done. I've never seen a rookie come in and completely unseat 2 vets of their caliber in his first season.

Can Spiller pick up blocking technique and be a reliable blocker before half way through the season? Important question...

No doubt Spiller is talented but he's never proven anything at the NFL level, we'll expect him to be an NFL caliber RB but I've seen better backs with similar pedigree bust at the NFL level and/or struggle carrying or blocking in the first season... Or maybe even never become a full time ball carrier (Reggie Bush anyone?) So there is bust potential with every rookie...

Lynch and Jackson are going to get carries, if you think Spiller is going to come in green and take on a bell cow role you're going to need to tone down your wishful thinking Spiller owner...

 
Alex P Keaton said:
texasbirdfan said:
Routilla said:
Is BUF really going to keep Lynch on the roster with CJ and Fred? Why not trade him for a draft pick?
Click to expand...
one of the great mysteries to me also. My take is Fred proves he is as old as his age and fails finally this year or before next and CJ becomes the scat back that he probably is; leaving Lynch in control by 2011. There seems no other way to explain the GM and management on this one and they get to do some kind of weird discipline lesson to lay on Lynch to boot.
Click to expand...
So just to be clear, you think the Bills drafted CJ Spiller at #9 overall because they plan to use him as a scat back. Correct?
Click to expand...
Some time high draft picks don't work out, and other times, they work out but just not at the level fantasy owners would like them too...High draft pick doesn't necessarily equate to fantasy points. There are several examples, I'm not sure I need to point them out but I will if you'd like.
 
Carolina Hustler said:
Alex P Keaton said:
texasbirdfan said:
Routilla said:
Is BUF really going to keep Lynch on the roster with CJ and Fred? Why not trade him for a draft pick?
Click to expand...
one of the great mysteries to me also. My take is Fred proves he is as old as his age and fails finally this year or before next and CJ becomes the scat back that he probably is; leaving Lynch in control by 2011. There seems no other way to explain the GM and management on this one and they get to do some kind of weird discipline lesson to lay on Lynch to boot.
Click to expand...
So just to be clear, you think the Bills drafted CJ Spiller at #9 overall because they plan to use him as a scat back. Correct?
Click to expand...
Some time high draft picks don't work out, and other times, they work out but just not at the level fantasy owners would like them too...High draft pick doesn't necessarily equate to fantasy points. There are several examples, I'm not sure I need to point them out but I will if you'd like.
Click to expand...
Sure, of course high draft picks don't always work out. But for Spiller to "just be a scat back" by 2011, it basically means either the coaching staff (and management) give up on him in 1 year, or they drafted him with the view that he was "a scat back". I'm not convinced that either of those scenarios makes any sense. The Saints didn't give up on Reggie Bush after 1 year.....why would the Bills "give up" on Spiller?
 
Alex P Keaton said:
Carolina Hustler said:
Alex P Keaton said:
texasbirdfan said:
Routilla said:
Is BUF really going to keep Lynch on the roster with CJ and Fred? Why not trade him for a draft pick?
Click to expand...
one of the great mysteries to me also. My take is Fred proves he is as old as his age and fails finally this year or before next and CJ becomes the scat back that he probably is; leaving Lynch in control by 2011. There seems no other way to explain the GM and management on this one and they get to do some kind of weird discipline lesson to lay on Lynch to boot.
Click to expand...
So just to be clear, you think the Bills drafted CJ Spiller at #9 overall because they plan to use him as a scat back. Correct?
Click to expand...
Some time high draft picks don't work out, and other times, they work out but just not at the level fantasy owners would like them too...High draft pick doesn't necessarily equate to fantasy points. There are several examples, I'm not sure I need to point them out but I will if you'd like.
Click to expand...
Sure, of course high draft picks don't always work out. But for Spiller to "just be a scat back" by 2011, it basically means either the coaching staff (and management) give up on him in 1 year, or they drafted him with the view that he was "a scat back". I'm not convinced that either of those scenarios makes any sense. The Saints didn't give up on Reggie Bush after 1 year.....why would the Bills "give up" on Spiller?
Click to expand...
Marshawn Lynch was a high draft pick, too. So? Reggie Bush was 1.02 and he got 155 carries his first year and has never gotten more than 157.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Alex P Keaton said:
CalBear said:
Marshawn Lynch was a high draft pick, too. So? Reggie Bush was 1.02 and he got 155 carries his first year and has never gotten more than 157.
Click to expand...
Marshawn Lynch carried the load for two years. Reggie Bush was approx. RB12 in PPG his first two seasons. So?
Click to expand...
So, Reggie Bush has been used as a scat back his entire career, despite the fact that he's both a higher draft pick than Spiller, and more talented than Spiller. The argument that Spiller will get 200+ carries because he was a high draft pick makes no sense at all.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
CalBear said:
Alex P Keaton said:
CalBear said:
Marshawn Lynch was a high draft pick, too. So? Reggie Bush was 1.02 and he got 155 carries his first year and has never gotten more than 157.
Click to expand...
Marshawn Lynch carried the load for two years. Reggie Bush was approx. RB12 in PPG his first two seasons. So?
Click to expand...
So, Reggie Bush has been used as a scat back his entire career, despite the fact that he's both a higher draft pick than Spiller, and more talented than Spiller. The argument that Spiller will get 200+ carries because he was a high draft picks makes no sense at all.
Click to expand...
I didn't say that. And sorry, but I don't see a gigantic difference between the #2 pick and the #9 pick. Both are top-ten picks.

Reggie Bush was productive in fantasy his first two seasons. (at least when he played) It's not at all clear what you are trying to argue.

 
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