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Darren Sproles, RB, San Diego Chargers (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Darren Sproles, RB, San Diego Chargers

Player Page Link: Darren Sproles Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :goodposting: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
110 carries, 440 yds, 4 TDs, 51 catches, 480 yds, 5 TDs.

In PPR I think he'll be surprisingly good. Matthews isn't going to get all the carries and Sproles is dynamic in space. If VJax holds out, Sproles could go for 60+ catches.

 
I'm glad you brought up the Vincent Jackson issue finito, because I think it's an important consideration. We recently saw Norv Turner quantify his expectations for Ryan Mathews, and signal that Sproles was in line for a similar role to 2009, when he was largely a receiver and special teams ace. While I think that HAS to be the baseline of expectations (it came from the coach's mouth), I do think that the Chargers are far too much of a passing team these days to not significantly ramp up Sproles role in that vein if Jackson makes good on his promise to hold out for 10 games. Even if you think Malcom Floyd can ascend into the WR1 role (I don't think that's likely), there is still a gaping hole in terms of a proven WR2. Sproles can, and should, help fill that gap in which case he would be a compelling PPR addition in the 2nd half of drafts.

 
will he still be a punt returner? That only adds to his value in most leagues.
Actually the majority of leagues don't reward return yardage to individual players, it's most commonly thrown into the Defense/Special Teams totals. But certainly if your league rewards individual return yardage, that's a huge bonus for Sproles (and a host of other players whose relative rankings would bump up in that type of system). For the sake of the Spotlight thread though, assume we're discussing a more traditional league where return yardage is not a factor. :lmao:

 
VJax isn't holding out.

Sproles is about as dynamic player as you can get in the NFL. He's much more valuable in PPR leagues because San Diego is going to pass all over teams this year. Look for this shifty back to take the rookie RB to school.

620 yards rushing and 4 td's

45 receptions for 455 yards and 4 td's

 
will he still be a punt returner? That only adds to his value in most leagues.
Actually the majority of leagues don't reward return yardage to individual players, it's most commonly thrown into the Defense/Special Teams totals. But certainly if your league rewards individual return yardage, that's a huge bonus for Sproles (and a host of other players whose relative rankings would bump up in that type of system). For the sake of the Spotlight thread though, assume we're discussing a more traditional league where return yardage is not a factor. :shrug:
Jason even if most leagues don't award return yardage to individual players (mine does), don't most of them still award special team TDs? If so, wouldn't Sproles still gain an extra boost over some RBs selected at higher ADPs? Therefore very sneaky value?
 
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VJax isn't holding out.

Sproles is about as dynamic player as you can get in the NFL. He's much more valuable in PPR leagues because San Diego is going to pass all over teams this year. Look for this shifty back to take the rookie RB to school.

620 yards rushing and 4 td's

45 receptions for 455 yards and 4 td's
VJax did not sign his tender by the deadline which knocks what he will get paid down considerably.....and I don't see him playing for those peanuts.....AJ is a guy who does not budge on contracts.....I don't see how he does not hold out until week 12 or 13 whatever it is to get his year of service....

 
will he still be a punt returner? That only adds to his value in most leagues.
Actually the majority of leagues don't reward return yardage to individual players, it's most commonly thrown into the Defense/Special Teams totals. But certainly if your league rewards individual return yardage, that's a huge bonus for Sproles (and a host of other players whose relative rankings would bump up in that type of system). For the sake of the Spotlight thread though, assume we're discussing a more traditional league where return yardage is not a factor. :shrug:
Jason even if most leagues don't award return yardage to individual players (mine does), don't most of them still award special team TDs? If so, wouldn't Sproles still gain an extra boost over some RBs selected at higher ADPs? Therefore very sneaky value?
More leagues than not reward those TDs to DST units, but if your league differs it certainly increases Sproles' relative value.
 
VJax isn't holding out.

Sproles is about as dynamic player as you can get in the NFL. He's much more valuable in PPR leagues because San Diego is going to pass all over teams this year. Look for this shifty back to take the rookie RB to school.

620 yards rushing and 4 td's

45 receptions for 455 yards and 4 td's
VJax did not sign his tender by the deadline which knocks what he will get paid down considerably.....and I don't see him playing for those peanuts.....AJ is a guy who does not budge on contracts.....I don't see how he does not hold out until week 12 or 13 whatever it is to get his year of service....
Well, considering there may be a lockout the year after that, he's potentially not going to be making very much money the next 2 years in what probably is his prime. I think when the pressure of thinking about not getting paid money this season and the thought of nothing the year after sinks in, somehow he'll find a way to be on the field this season.
 
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VJax isn't holding out.

Sproles is about as dynamic player as you can get in the NFL. He's much more valuable in PPR leagues because San Diego is going to pass all over teams this year. Look for this shifty back to take the rookie RB to school.

620 yards rushing and 4 td's

45 receptions for 455 yards and 4 td's
VJax did not sign his tender by the deadline which knocks what he will get paid down considerably.....and I don't see him playing for those peanuts.....AJ is a guy who does not budge on contracts.....I don't see how he does not hold out until week 12 or 13 whatever it is to get his year of service....
Well, considering there may be a lockout the year after that, he's potentially not going to be making very much money the next 2 years in what probably is his prime. I think when the pressure of thinking about not getting paid money this season and the thought of nothing the year after sinks in, somehow he'll find a way to be on the field this season.
This has been discussed ad nauseam. VJAX will report just in time to effectively miss the FF season. No reason to come back sooner. He's done.

As for Sproles, he is dependent on Mattews being effective. That SD line has issues and McNeil is probably out of the picture too. That is a huge loss. Again if Mattews somehow finds a way to find the holes, he can soften up the defense and Sproles can really be a weapon. But too many question marks around this situation to support taking him at his ADP. Pass.

 
VJax isn't holding out.

Sproles is about as dynamic player as you can get in the NFL. He's much more valuable in PPR leagues because San Diego is going to pass all over teams this year. Look for this shifty back to take the rookie RB to school.

620 yards rushing and 4 td's

45 receptions for 455 yards and 4 td's
VJax did not sign his tender by the deadline which knocks what he will get paid down considerably.....and I don't see him playing for those peanuts.....AJ is a guy who does not budge on contracts.....I don't see how he does not hold out until week 12 or 13 whatever it is to get his year of service....
Well, considering there may be a lockout the year after that, he's potentially not going to be making very much money the next 2 years in what probably is his prime. I think when the pressure of thinking about not getting paid money this season and the thought of nothing the year after sinks in, somehow he'll find a way to be on the field this season.
This has been discussed ad nauseam. VJAX will report just in time to effectively miss the FF season. No reason to come back sooner. He's done.

As for Sproles, he is dependent on Mattews being effective. That SD line has issues and McNeil is probably out of the picture too. That is a huge loss. Again if Mattews somehow finds a way to find the holes, he can soften up the defense and Sproles can really be a weapon. But too many question marks around this situation to support taking him at his ADP. Pass.
Well, at least your not bias....
 
In the VJax suspended for three games thread:

Sproles will not play WR, but he may be more involved in the passing game this year out of the backfield.
More importantly, no VJax means a ton of Matthews, too. Obviously AJ saw this coming and drafted accordingly. Sproles will get some scraps this year, but that's it. Expect this season to see something similar to his 2008 numbers.72 rushes 394 yards29 recepts 267 yards3 TD's
 
In the VJax suspended for three games thread:

Sproles will not play WR, but he may be more involved in the passing game this year out of the backfield.
More importantly, no VJax means a ton of Matthews, too. Obviously AJ saw this coming and drafted accordingly. Sproles will get some scraps this year, but that's it. Expect this season to see something similar to his 2008 numbers.72 rushes 394 yards29 recepts 267 yards3 TD's
I don't know that they'll be giving Matthews 300+ carries as a rookie.
 
In the VJax suspended for three games thread:

Sproles will not play WR, but he may be more involved in the passing game this year out of the backfield.
More importantly, no VJax means a ton of Matthews, too. Obviously AJ saw this coming and drafted accordingly. Sproles will get some scraps this year, but that's it. Expect this season to see something similar to his 2008 numbers.72 rushes 394 yards29 recepts 267 yards3 TD's
I don't know that they'll be giving Matthews 300+ carries as a rookie.
Their coach has already said Matthews is slated for almost 300 touches (over 50 more than LT had last season). Those touches have to come from somewhere.Let's not forget that LT had 339 carries and 59 recepts as a rookie, either.
 
I'm surprised at a couple of rushing projections that seem pretty high to me. One for 620 rushing yards and one for 110/440 rushing.

Sproles' career high in rushing attempts and yards are the 93/343 he posted last year. And 28 of those 93 carries came in the 2 games Tomlinson missed... Sproles averaged fewer than 5 carries per game in the other 14 games. Now the Chargers have a rookie RB who is expected to be featured in their offense, with Norv already having been quoted as estimating 250 carries for him this season. Tomlinson only had 223 last year. And Tomlinson got all the carries even though he was performing poorly... odds are Matthews will perform better this year than Tomlinson did last year, meaning the team will have even less incentive to give Sproles many carries.

I think for Sproles to break 100 carries would require one or both of two things to happen: (1) Matthews missing multiple games and/or (2) the Chargers significantly increasing their rushing attempts... where by significantly, it would probably require an increase of 50+ over last season. I don't see any reason to predict Matthews to miss time, and I don't see the Chargers approaching 500 rushing attempts this year. So those rushing projections are considerably high IMO.

Last season, Sproles only averaged playing 21 snaps (on offense) per game in the 14 regular season games that Tomlinson also played, and he got 65 carries and 41 targets in those games... so he had touches/targets on 36% of his snaps in those games. How much higher can it go? And before someone says his snaps will go up, keep in mind that (a) he returns kickoffs and punts, which is one reason his offensive snaps are somewhat limited and (b) the Chargers have a much better other RB this year to feature in the offense.

For similar reasons, I think he will probably see similar action in the passing game this year, meaning he'll get 40-50 catches (he had 45 last season). I think he is talented enough to be more involved in the passing game, but the problem is that he won't likely be on the field often enough to get the targets, unless the team decides to use him as a slot receiver or decides to use both Matthews and Sproles on the field together quite a bit.

Projections:

85 rushing attempts, 374 rushing yards (4.4 ypc), 2 rushing TDs

48 receptions, 504 receiving yards (10.5 ypr), 3 receiving TDs

 
In the VJax suspended for three games thread:

Sproles will not play WR, but he may be more involved in the passing game this year out of the backfield.
More importantly, no VJax means a ton of Matthews, too. Obviously AJ saw this coming and drafted accordingly. Sproles will get some scraps this year, but that's it. Expect this season to see something similar to his 2008 numbers.72 rushes 394 yards29 recepts 267 yards3 TD's
I don't know that they'll be giving Matthews 300+ carries as a rookie.
Their coach has already said Matthews is slated for almost 300 touches (over 50 more than LT had last season). Those touches have to come from somewhere.Let's not forget that LT had 339 carries and 59 recepts as a rookie, either.
Rookies wear out. If they want to keep Matthews on his feet for the playoffs I doubt he gets 300 carries. 300 touches, sure, but 300+ carries and receptions on top of that and there's a good chance he's running on fumes at the end of the year. I don't think Sproles gets "scraps", I think he's going to see the ball more than many think. It will help Matthews.
 
well this hasn't gone at all how it was scripted has it. Another cut bait guy?

Chargers RB Darren Sproles saw most of his action on special teams on Sunday in Week 3. He had one carry for 16 yards and had one catch for 10 yards (on four targets) in San Diego's loss to Seattle. He had 101 yards off kick returns and has been held out of the end zone for three straight weeks. (Updated 09/26/2010).AnalysisWith San Diego playing catchup for the majority of the game on Sunday, Sproles didn't get get many looks. That is surprising as Sproles normally excels with screen passes. With rookie Ryan Mathews out of action, Mike Tolbert got the bulk of the carries, leaving Sproles to his special teams play. After this performance it's confusing to see Sproles true role and identity with the team. Depending on how long Mathews is out will dictate Sproles' long-term value. As of right now he should be viewed as a flex option, even with the porous Arizona defense coming to town in Week 4.
 
well this hasn't gone at all how it was scripted has it. Another cut bait guy?

Chargers RB Darren Sproles saw most of his action on special teams on Sunday in Week 3. He had one carry for 16 yards and had one catch for 10 yards (on four targets) in San Diego's loss to Seattle. He had 101 yards off kick returns and has been held out of the end zone for three straight weeks. (Updated 09/26/2010).AnalysisWith San Diego playing catchup for the majority of the game on Sunday, Sproles didn't get get many looks. That is surprising as Sproles normally excels with screen passes. With rookie Ryan Mathews out of action, Mike Tolbert got the bulk of the carries, leaving Sproles to his special teams play. After this performance it's confusing to see Sproles true role and identity with the team. Depending on how long Mathews is out will dictate Sproles' long-term value. As of right now he should be viewed as a flex option, even with the porous Arizona defense coming to town in Week 4.
 
Sproles is absolutely dynamic on offense. The fact that Norv Turner does not use him, despite not having Mathews, is a blotch on Turner's ability as a coach. Mathews starts the game, gets 1 carry right off the bat, turns it into a 16 yard run. You're thinking that Sproles is going to get a lot of action! It ends up being his ONLY run of the day. Not surprisingly, it ends up being the Chargers longest run of the day. The rest of the day they continue to give the ball to a full back, Tolbert, who rumbles for 1, 2, or 3 yards a carry, lol. The only time Tolbert became even mildly effective was in the second half. As the Chargers went ballistic on the seahawks through the air, passing for 450+ yards, most of it coming through the air. The seahawks were forced to dedicate all their attention to the pass. This is when Tolbert "broke his huge runs" of 7, 8 or maybe even 10 whole yards. If you don't include those late game runs, his average would be around 2 yards per carry.

The reality is that Sproles is an absolute weapon. But if the coach doesn't use him, then what's one to do? A horse to water and that sort of thing...

 
Crayton split return duties last week so even in return ydg leagues his value drops.
Definitely worries me. Sproles is typically considered a huge threat in the return game, so giving punt returns to Crayton is confusing. They gave Crayton 1 of the 5 kickoff returns too. And then you have Crayton making a public statement about SD's Special Teams "not taking things seriously". Sproles did fumble on a kick return late in the 2nd quarter.As for the passing game, Rivers threw for 455 yards and he was looking deep often. Sproles was targeted 4 times but only caught one.

 
I think they limited Sproles's returns a bit last week because they were down Matthews and had only 3 other RBs active (Tolbert, Hester and Brinkley). That said, Crayton isn't a scrub on returns so you might see him continue to take some of those away from Sproles.

Sproles didn't get as many touches last week because they were having no problems getting guys open down field in the passing game and Tolbert was doing a good job between the tackles (when he wasn't fumbling).

 

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