Tim Hightower, RB, Arizona Cardinals (1 Viewer)

2010 Player Spotlight Series

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Thread Topic: Tim Hightower, RB, Arizona Cardinals

Player Page Link: Tim Hightower Player Page

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Hey guys - looks like this fell off and people missed it.

So what do folks think about Hightower? How much will Wells cut into his yardage? Will LaRod Stephens-Howling cut into his reception totals this season? Who will be the Goal Line back? Or is Hightower the odd man out after two productive seasons in a pass-happy offense?

Let's hear your thoughts!

Simple question for those folks glossing over the Hightower SL...would you draft him?

His ADP currently stands at RB45 (109th overall), way down from last year's RB22 finish. Now that's driven almost completely by the expectation that Chris Wells will take over a feature back role, relegating Hightower to a complementary 3rd down option. While that's certainly a possibility, Hightower has displayed a rare combination of hard nosed short yardage ability combined with above average receiving skills. That's not the kind of player you keep off the field particularly when Matt Leinart is your QB...does anyone really think he won't need a reliable dump off?

I still feel he has really good value in PPR leagues. He get's plenty of receptions and goaline touches. It is very hard to project though what he will do now than Wells looks like he is ready to take the reigns.

Todem said:

I still feel he has really good value in PPR leagues. He get's plenty of receptions and goaline touches. It is very hard to project though what he will do now than Wells looks like he is ready to take the reigns.

Click to expand...

NFC West blog on ESPN calls Hightower vs. Wells the best position battle. ESPN ArticleIf Hightower is only the 3rd down and short-yardage back, is that enough to draft him this year?

Jason Wood said:

Simple question for those folks glossing over the Hightower SL...would you draft him?

His ADP currently stands at RB45 (109th overall), way down from last year's RB22 finish. Now that's driven almost completely by the expectation that Chris Wells will take over a feature back role, relegating Hightower to a complementary 3rd down option. While that's certainly a possibility, Hightower has displayed a rare combination of hard nosed short yardage ability combined with above average receiving skills. That's not the kind of player you keep off the field particularly when Matt Leinart is your QB...does anyone really think he won't need a reliable dump off?

Click to expand...

Pretty sure this has been debunked a million times.

Multiple Scores said:

Jason Wood said:

Simple question for those folks glossing over the Hightower SL...would you draft him?

His ADP currently stands at RB45 (109th overall), way down from last year's RB22 finish. Now that's driven almost completely by the expectation that Chris Wells will take over a feature back role, relegating Hightower to a complementary 3rd down option. While that's certainly a possibility, Hightower has displayed a rare combination of hard nosed short yardage ability combined with above average receiving skills. That's not the kind of player you keep off the field particularly when Matt Leinart is your QB...does anyone really think he won't need a reliable dump off?

Click to expand...

Pretty sure this has been debunked a million times.

Click to expand...

Hightower has converted 15 of 30 rushes at the goal line (5 yards or closer) for TDs in the last two seasons. That's a better rate than Adrian Peterson (19 of 39), DeAngelo Williams (10 of 22), MJD (14 of 39), Chris Johnson (7 of 16), Pierre Thomas (7 of 16), Ryan Grant (10 of 24), Ronnie Brown, Joseph Addai, Jonathan Stewart, LT, Frank Gore, Thomas Jones or Steven Jackson.If you're speaking more about his ability to convert first downs on short yardage, he admittedly hasn't been as productive. He's converted 57% of carries (3 yards or less to go) which compares against the average of 62.3% for RBs with at least 25 carries over the last two years.

Jason Wood said:

Multiple Scores said:

Jason Wood said:

Simple question for those folks glossing over the Hightower SL...would you draft him?

His ADP currently stands at RB45 (109th overall), way down from last year's RB22 finish. Now that's driven almost completely by the expectation that Chris Wells will take over a feature back role, relegating Hightower to a complementary 3rd down option. While that's certainly a possibility, Hightower has displayed a rare combination of hard nosed short yardage ability combined with above average receiving skills. That's not the kind of player you keep off the field particularly when Matt Leinart is your QB...does anyone really think he won't need a reliable dump off?

Click to expand...

Pretty sure this has been debunked a million times.

Click to expand...

Hightower has converted 15 of 30 rushes at the goal line (5 yards or closer) for TDs in the last two seasons. That's a better rate than Adrian Peterson (19 of 39), DeAngelo Williams (10 of 22), MJD (14 of 39), Chris Johnson (7 of 16), Pierre Thomas (7 of 16), Ryan Grant (10 of 24), Ronnie Brown, Joseph Addai, Jonathan Stewart, LT, Frank Gore, Thomas Jones or Steven Jackson.If you're speaking more about his ability to convert first downs on short yardage, he admittedly hasn't been as productive. He's converted 57% of carries (3 yards or less to go) which compares against the average of 62.3% for RBs with at least 25 carries over the last two years.

Click to expand...

Well, those are some real good numbers. I must have confused Hightower with someone else. The only thing I can think is I am thinking of LT because I am a Greene and Wells owner and must have just made the mental note that the backup was not a good goal line runner. I really thought I seen that about both LT and Hightower and both on many occasions but those numbers you put up look legit so it is I who twisted it up in my head. My mistake and mental note updated.

Multiple Scores said:

Jason Wood said:

Multiple Scores said:

Jason Wood said:

Simple question for those folks glossing over the Hightower SL...would you draft him?

His ADP currently stands at RB45 (109th overall), way down from last year's RB22 finish. Now that's driven almost completely by the expectation that Chris Wells will take over a feature back role, relegating Hightower to a complementary 3rd down option. While that's certainly a possibility, Hightower has displayed a rare combination of hard nosed short yardage ability combined with above average receiving skills. That's not the kind of player you keep off the field particularly when Matt Leinart is your QB...does anyone really think he won't need a reliable dump off?

Click to expand...

Pretty sure this has been debunked a million times.

Click to expand...

Hightower has converted 15 of 30 rushes at the goal line (5 yards or closer) for TDs in the last two seasons. That's a better rate than Adrian Peterson (19 of 39), DeAngelo Williams (10 of 22), MJD (14 of 39), Chris Johnson (7 of 16), Pierre Thomas (7 of 16), Ryan Grant (10 of 24), Ronnie Brown, Joseph Addai, Jonathan Stewart, LT, Frank Gore, Thomas Jones or Steven Jackson.If you're speaking more about his ability to convert first downs on short yardage, he admittedly hasn't been as productive. He's converted 57% of carries (3 yards or less to go) which compares against the average of 62.3% for RBs with at least 25 carries over the last two years.

Click to expand...

Well, those are some real good numbers. I must have confused Hightower with someone else. The only thing I can think is I am thinking of LT because I am a Greene and Wells owner and must have just made the mental note that the backup was not a good goal line runner. I really thought I seen that about both LT and Hightower and both on many occasions but those numbers you put up look legit so it is I who twisted it up in my head. My mistake and mental note updated.

Click to expand...

I think, to be fair, his 2.8 yards per carry as a rookie has a lot of folks thinking the dude is worthless. But as a specialist? He's got value, at least to date. Now if Chris Wells is capable of similar productivity PLUS he can be a more productive runner in other downs and distances, than Hightower will still see less time. LenDale White had been an effective short yardage option but Chris Johnson certainly didn't waste time sending White to the bench (and ultimately off the roster) because his talent was too pervasive to worry about a specialist in most situations.

When I look at Hightower's FF value for 2010, I'm not viewing it as Hightower vs Wells, but rather as Hightower's position in the potential aggregate Offense generated by the Cardinals. Based on that, I think he's a value buy as part of an RB2BC with considerable PPR upside.

Obviously, with the losses of KWarner and Boldin, the Cardinals Offense will have to change. Touchdowns will likely be down, net yardage will likely be down, and the distribution ratio of how those yards are generated (run/pass) will likely be different as well.

I respect Whisenhunt and Grimm, and it's my opinion that they are capable of maturing as play-callers and offensive schemers this offseason, and part of that process is learning how to best play the hand you've been dealt. Making honest assesments of it's potential, and working within it's context to do what it's capable of doing best.

With their current group of Offensive personnel, I think it's likely that they move the Cardinals to a much more conventional, conservative Offensive game plan. The 2010 version of the Cardinals Offense doesn't have many quality playmakers, in my opinion, and, to me, that means that Hightower will get plenty of opportunities because he's one of the few. Simply put, if the Cardinals are going to work with what they've got, by default, Hightower is going to be on the field for a high percentage of Offensive plays, which means there is going to be plenty of opportunity for him to generate statistics. You have to be on the field to generate stats, and I think Hightower, based on personnel and role, might be the skill-position player on the Offense who logs more plays than anyone else besides Fitzgerald. Please note that I said plays, NOT touches.

Leinart/DAnderson/?...this group is obviously a far cry from Warner. Both Leinart and Anderson have to be protected in the scheme - neither of them will be allowed to have the outcome of the Game in their hands. As such, the Cardinals will likely have to try to generate as much out of the running Game as possible, to take pressure off the QB's and limit their mistakes/turnovers, and run passing sets relying on high percentage plays - I think the screen pass and it's variants will comprise a large % of their offense whether it's by choice, or because that's what the Defense gives them.

Fitzgerald/Breaston/Doucet/?...Don't get me wrong, I don't have a screaming issue with either Breaston or Doucet, but I don't think either one of them is going to phase a Defensive Co-ordinator designing a game plan to shut down the Cardinals Offense. Breaston has talent to belong on the field, but so does Michael Jenkins in Atlanta. It's important to realize that both Breaston and Doucet were moved up the depth chart to fill the vacuum left by Boldin, and not because they earned those spots by beating anyone out. Furthermore, Breaston doesn't seem to be threatened by Doucet any more than Boldin was threatened by Breaston. I would imagine that the game plan is to bracket Fitzgerald with safety help, and feel pretty confident that the other starting CB can easily handle Breaston in man coverage, and the nickel back can easily handle Doucet singly as well. Again, I like those two guys, but neither is currently an exploitable mismatch vs the players likely assigned to cover them. In my opinion that's going to limit Fitz's production, and change the face of the passing game entirely.

TE:?/?/?...in my opinion, the Cardinals don't have a legitimate pass-catching threat on the Roster, and the Target %age and Reception totals for that position in the Offense will be among the lowest in the NFL. Same with the FB Position.

Wells/Hightower/LS-H...in my opinion, it's going to be these guys, and not Breaston, Doucet, or the non-existent TE/FB that determine the aggregate output of the Cardinals Offense in 2010. I think that Whisenhunt and Grimm will find a way to get the most out of each one of them. It could be a poor-man's version of a 3-Headed Monster similar to what the Giants had with Jacobs/Ward/Bradshaw, and I like the potential that Ken and Russ can get out of them. That being said, Wells has the most potential to be a cornerstone, but based on my opinion of the QB, other WR and lack of TE, there's no reason I can see at this time for opposing co-ordinators not to send 7 or 8 after him and not worry about the consequences. LS-H can be dynamic, but I don't see him as much more than a bit player at this point who's still earning his touches.

Which leads me to Hightower. Given the attention that Defenses are going to pay to the running game, and the punishment he's likely to take, I don't think Wells can handle more than 50% of the Rushing Attempts generated by the offense, and I think Whisenhunt and Grimm are smart enough not to put that much work on him, because without Wells, they're really up the creek. I think LS-H only sees situational touches. The Cardinals are going to get minimal Offensive Production out of the personnel they have at FB and TE. By the look of things, IMO, Hightower looks to be the de-facto TE in this Offense. I think he's going to be on the field a TON, and once you're out there, anything is possible. If I'm right, then Hightower could see close to 50% of the carries generated by the Offense, certainly possible to be an relatively even split with Wells.

He's going to also get almost 100% of the FB/TE touches, whatever those are, due to the complete lack of offensive threats at those positions currently on the Roster. I could see the Cardinals rolling out several formations with Wells and Hightower on the field at the same time. So, say the Cardinals roll out a passing formation with Wells, Hightower, Fitzgerald, Breaston and Doucet all on the field. Fitz gets the double-team, Breaston and Doucet each get a DB who is capable of handling them alone, and the next most athletic defensive player with coverage skills shadows Wells. That leaves Hightower as the skill position guy most likely to be able to win his matchup and have space to operate. Couple that with his patterns likely keeping him right in the line of vision for a QB who may abandon his reads under pressure and just get the ball to the closest open man, and I think there's a potential recipe for PPR Gold. Add to this the presumption that the Cardinals are going to be playing from behind quite a bit, due to losses on the Defense that are almost as critical as Warner/Boldin, and it further creates opportunity for my assumptions to come to fruition.

In an 18-Round Draft I start looking to mine quality depth just past the 1/2 way point, which is where you can land Hightower. The #1 thing I look for is guys who have proven they can run and catch the ball, who are in a position to be on the field for a high percentage of offensive snaps. For the amount of time that I think he's going to be on the field, and where you can land him, the value potential for Hightower as a Team's RB4 is there. His situation gives him upside and I think he's a critical piece of a PPR RB Stable, especially in Best-Ball Format.

Right now, given where the rest of of them are falling (Fitz and Wells too high for my taste), and what I expect them to do (Breaston and Doucet, not as much as others seem to think) statistically, he's the only Cardinal skill position player that I'm rostering. He can be had cheaply and has a lot of upside potential, IMO.

I don't really do projections this early, but I think Hightower will have roughly an equal # of carries as Wells, and will be the 2nd-leading receiver on the Cardinals in 2010, for whatever that's worth.

Anyway, that's my opinion...

nittanylion said:

Right now, given where the rest of of them are falling (Fitz and Wells too high for my taste), and what I expect them to do (Breaston and Doucet, not as much as others seem to think) statistically, he's the only Cardinal skill position player that I'm rostering. He can be had cheaply and has a lot of upside potential, IMO.I don't really do projections this early, but I think Hightower will have roughly an equal # of carries as Wells, and will be the 2nd-leading receiver on the Cardinals in 2010, for whatever that's worth.Anyway, that's my opinion...

Click to expand...

Good stuff Nittany... In a redraft league, using your 18 round draft as an example - when would you take Hightower? 10th round? 11th?Just curious.

The Arizona Cardinals would be smart if they try and rush the ball more this year. I think their defense took a hit after last season losing some players via free agency and the loss of their potential HOF QB makes for running the ball a good idea. The Cardinals have a pretty good offensive line, so I think they could find success here. I do think the primary ball carrier will be Beanie Wells but Hightower will get his and I do think Matt Leinart will check down to his RB's a lot. The Cardinals are aided by what appears to be a weak schedule, so drafting any players from this team you can at least take solace in that.

640 yards rushing, 5 td's 42 receptions for 280 yards and 2 td's

Jason Wood said:

Multiple Scores said:

Jason Wood said:

Simple question for those folks glossing over the Hightower SL...would you draft him?

His ADP currently stands at RB45 (109th overall), way down from last year's RB22 finish. Now that's driven almost completely by the expectation that Chris Wells will take over a feature back role, relegating Hightower to a complementary 3rd down option. While that's certainly a possibility, Hightower has displayed a rare combination of hard nosed short yardage ability combined with above average receiving skills. That's not the kind of player you keep off the field particularly when Matt Leinart is your QB...does anyone really think he won't need a reliable dump off?

Click to expand...

Pretty sure this has been debunked a million times.

Click to expand...

Hightower has converted 15 of 30 rushes at the goal line (5 yards or closer) for TDs in the last two seasons. That's a better rate than Adrian Peterson (19 of 39), DeAngelo Williams (10 of 22), MJD (14 of 39), Chris Johnson (7 of 16), Pierre Thomas (7 of 16), Ryan Grant (10 of 24), Ronnie Brown, Joseph Addai, Jonathan Stewart, LT, Frank Gore, Thomas Jones or Steven Jackson.If you're speaking more about his ability to convert first downs on short yardage, he admittedly hasn't been as productive. He's converted 57% of carries (3 yards or less to go) which compares against the average of 62.3% for RBs with at least 25 carries over the last two years.

Click to expand...

Hightower in short yardage (less than 3 yards- any down anywhere on the field) is 36/63 (57%) the past 2 seasons which is worse than Wells + Edge combined 28/45 (62%)- and all other players on ARI the past two years have a similar % of runs inside the 5 turning into TDs (7/13).

Multiple Scores said:

Jason Wood said:

Multiple Scores said:

Jason Wood said:

Simple question for those folks glossing over the Hightower SL...would you draft him?

His ADP currently stands at RB45 (109th overall), way down from last year's RB22 finish. Now that's driven almost completely by the expectation that Chris Wells will take over a feature back role, relegating Hightower to a complementary 3rd down option. While that's certainly a possibility, Hightower has displayed a rare combination of hard nosed short yardage ability combined with above average receiving skills. That's not the kind of player you keep off the field particularly when Matt Leinart is your QB...does anyone really think he won't need a reliable dump off?

Click to expand...

Pretty sure this has been debunked a million times.

Click to expand...

Hightower has converted 15 of 30 rushes at the goal line (5 yards or closer) for TDs in the last two seasons. That's a better rate than Adrian Peterson (19 of 39), DeAngelo Williams (10 of 22), MJD (14 of 39), Chris Johnson (7 of 16), Pierre Thomas (7 of 16), Ryan Grant (10 of 24), Ronnie Brown, Joseph Addai, Jonathan Stewart, LT, Frank Gore, Thomas Jones or Steven Jackson.If you're speaking more about his ability to convert first downs on short yardage, he admittedly hasn't been as productive. He's converted 57% of carries (3 yards or less to go) which compares against the average of 62.3% for RBs with at least 25 carries over the last two years.

Click to expand...

Well, those are some real good numbers. I must have confused Hightower with someone else. The only thing I can think is I am thinking of LT because I am a Greene and Wells owner and must have just made the mental note that the backup was not a good goal line runner. I really thought I seen that about both LT and Hightower and both on many occasions but those numbers you put up look legit so it is I who twisted it up in my head. My mistake and mental note updated.

Click to expand...

You're not confusing Hightower with someone else, and these numbers have been debunked.The Arizona short yardage running game as a whole has put up similar, if not better numbers to these over the same span. Edgerrin James, who's biggest weakness in his entire game is his short yardage running (which is one of the primary reasons for Peyton's record setting TD season) which has historically been awful, put up great short yardage numbers in 2008 in Arizona as well, as did Beanie last year. In fact, Edge and Beanie have put up better short yardage conversion ratios than Hightower over the last two years.

Edge's goaline conversion percentage by year

2002: 20%

2003: 32%

2004: 28%

2005: 44%

2006: 21%

2007: 36%

2008: 60%

Beanie

2009: 50%

Hightower

2008: 44%

2009: 58%

On 3rd and 2 or less and 4th and 2 or less the number of carries are really too low to draw any conclusions, but Hightower finishes behind both Beanie and Edge in conversion percentage for those limited samples as well.

Hightower has really done nothing in short yardage that any other Arizona running back hasn't over the same timespan.

FreeBaGeL said:

You're not confusing Hightower with someone else, and these numbers have been debunked.

The Arizona short yardage running game as a whole has put up similar, if not better numbers to these over the same span. Edgerrin James, who's biggest weakness in his entire game is his short yardage running (which is one of the primary reasons for Peyton's record setting TD season) which has historically been awful, put up great short yardage numbers in 2008 in Arizona as well, as did Beanie last year. In fact, Edge and Beanie have put up better short yardage conversion ratios than Hightower over the last two years.

Edge's goaline conversion percentage by year

2002: 20%

2003: 32%

2004: 28%

2005: 44%

2006: 21%

2007: 36%

2008: 60%

Beanie

2009: 50%

Hightower

2008: 44%

2009: 58%

On 3rd and 2 or less and 4th and 2 or less the number of carries are really too low to draw any conclusions, but Hightower finishes behind both Beanie and Edge in conversion percentage for those limited samples as well.

Hightower has really done nothing in short yardage that any other Arizona running back hasn't over the same timespan.

Click to expand...

Of course the number of carries is a low amount, we are talking about game situ's that might happen once/twice a game. As per a previous poster, Hightower has converted 15 of 30 rushes at the goal line (5 yards or closer) for TDs in the last two seasons. That's a better rate than Adrian Peterson (19 of 39), So you threw out raw % for Beanie & Edge....what were there TD's to carries rate in the same situations? People will always try to skew stats to suit themselves. This stat mentioned by Wood is very relevant, it about TD's which while hard to predict, the stat shows you Hightower is getting almost as many opportunities as stud RB's at the goal-line and being just as effective as those more heralded players. Projections: 140 carries, 580 yards, 8 TD's, 68 catches, 440 yards, 1 TD

Jason Wood said:

Multiple Scores said:

Jason Wood said:

Multiple Scores said:

Jason Wood said:

Simple question for those folks glossing over the Hightower SL...would you draft him?

His ADP currently stands at RB45 (109th overall), way down from last year's RB22 finish. Now that's driven almost completely by the expectation that Chris Wells will take over a feature back role, relegating Hightower to a complementary 3rd down option. While that's certainly a possibility, Hightower has displayed a rare combination of hard nosed short yardage ability combined with above average receiving skills. That's not the kind of player you keep off the field particularly when Matt Leinart is your QB...does anyone really think he won't need a reliable dump off?

Click to expand...

Pretty sure this has been debunked a million times.

Click to expand...

Hightower has converted 15 of 30 rushes at the goal line (5 yards or closer) for TDs in the last two seasons. That's a better rate than Adrian Peterson (19 of 39), DeAngelo Williams (10 of 22), MJD (14 of 39), Chris Johnson (7 of 16), Pierre Thomas (7 of 16), Ryan Grant (10 of 24), Ronnie Brown, Joseph Addai, Jonathan Stewart, LT, Frank Gore, Thomas Jones or Steven Jackson.If you're speaking more about his ability to convert first downs on short yardage, he admittedly hasn't been as productive. He's converted 57% of carries (3 yards or less to go) which compares against the average of 62.3% for RBs with at least 25 carries over the last two years.

Click to expand...

Well, those are some real good numbers. I must have confused Hightower with someone else. The only thing I can think is I am thinking of LT because I am a Greene and Wells owner and must have just made the mental note that the backup was not a good goal line runner. I really thought I seen that about both LT and Hightower and both on many occasions but those numbers you put up look legit so it is I who twisted it up in my head. My mistake and mental note updated.

Click to expand...

I think, to be fair, his 2.8 yards per carry as a rookie has a lot of folks thinking the dude is worthless. But as a specialist? He's got value, at least to date. Now if Chris Wells is capable of similar productivity PLUS he can be a more productive runner in other downs and distances, than Hightower will still see less time. LenDale White had been an effective short yardage option but Chris Johnson certainly didn't waste time sending White to the bench (and ultimately off the roster) because his talent was too pervasive to worry about a specialist in most situations.

Click to expand...

I think he has more value to his NFL team than to his fantasy owners. With that said, taking him at his ADP is a good investment. If there is an injury to Wells or if he somehow wins the position he has much more fantasy value this year than last due to Leinart likely checking down and going with the safe play more this year.

kurtrudder said:

As per a previous poster, Hightower has converted 15 of 30 rushes at the goal line (5 yards or closer) for TDs in the last two seasons. That's a better rate than Adrian Peterson (19 of 39), So you threw out raw % for Beanie & Edge....what were there TD's to carries rate in the same situations?

Click to expand...

What are you talking about? I posted their numbers in those same situations there bright and clear. What do you think all those numbers I posted right there are? Edgerrin James has a career conversion ratio of around 30%, yet on the same 2008 Cardinals team that Hightower played on that ratio was 60%.Over the last two years, Beanie/Edge have a higher TD scoring ratio than Hightower does. They also have a better 3rd and 4th and short conversion ratio than Hightower does. Hightower wasn't better than Adrian Peterson, etc, rather the Arizona running game was better than Peterson, etc, and Hightower was the worst of that group in those situations.

It's painfully obvious from looking at the stats that it's the Arizona front that has excelled in short yardage situations, and not Hightower specifically. No skewing of the stats needed here. The idea that Hightower is in any way a great goaline runner is just silly. The only people we can directly compare him to (same team, same situation, same blockers) have all been better than him, and of those guys we have only a guy who is an unknown and another guy who's supposed to be one of the worst short yardage runners in the league.

FreeBaGeL said:

kurtrudder said:

As per a previous poster, Hightower has converted 15 of 30 rushes at the goal line (5 yards or closer) for TDs in the last two seasons. That's a better rate than Adrian Peterson (19 of 39), So you threw out raw % for Beanie & Edge....what were there TD's to carries rate in the same situations?

Click to expand...

What are you talking about? I posted their numbers in those same situations there bright and clear. What do you think all those numbers I posted right there are? Edgerrin James has a career conversion ratio of around 30%, yet on the same 2008 Cardinals team that Hightower played on that ratio was 60%.Over the last two years, Beanie/Edge have a higher TD scoring ratio than Hightower does. They also have a better 3rd and 4th and short conversion ratio than Hightower does. Hightower wasn't better than Adrian Peterson, etc, rather the Arizona running game was better than Peterson, etc, and Hightower was the worst of that group in those situations.

It's painfully obvious from looking at the stats that it's the Arizona front that has excelled in short yardage situations, and not Hightower specifically. No skewing of the stats needed here. The idea that Hightower is in any way a great goaline runner is just silly. The only people we can directly compare him to (same team, same situation, same blockers) have all been better than him, and of those guys we have only a guy who is an unknown and another guy who's supposed to be one of the worst short yardage runners in the league.

Click to expand...

By your own admission, Beanie was 50% (3 of 6) last year to Hightower's 58% (7 of 12). So to say "have all been better than him" is simply not accurate. Now there IS some value in pointing out that Arizona has been effective in general in short yardage. But that's hardly a reason to penalize Hightower.

kurtrudder said:

FreeBaGeL said:

You're not confusing Hightower with someone else, and these numbers have been debunked.

The Arizona short yardage running game as a whole has put up similar, if not better numbers to these over the same span. Edgerrin James, who's biggest weakness in his entire game is his short yardage running (which is one of the primary reasons for Peyton's record setting TD season) which has historically been awful, put up great short yardage numbers in 2008 in Arizona as well, as did Beanie last year. In fact, Edge and Beanie have put up better short yardage conversion ratios than Hightower over the last two years.

Edge's goaline conversion percentage by year

2002: 20%

2003: 32%

2004: 28%

2005: 44%

2006: 21%

2007: 36%

2008: 60%

Beanie

2009: 50%

Hightower

2008: 44%

2009: 58%

On 3rd and 2 or less and 4th and 2 or less the number of carries are really too low to draw any conclusions, but Hightower finishes behind both Beanie and Edge in conversion percentage for those limited samples as well.

Hightower has really done nothing in short yardage that any other Arizona running back hasn't over the same timespan.

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Of course the number of carries is a low amount, we are talking about game situ's that might happen once/twice a game. As per a previous poster, Hightower has converted 15 of 30 rushes at the goal line (5 yards or closer) for TDs in the last two seasons. That's a better rate than Adrian Peterson (19 of 39), So you threw out raw % for Beanie & Edge....what were there TD's to carries rate in the same situations? People will always try to skew stats to suit themselves. This stat mentioned by Wood is very relevant, it about TD's which while hard to predict, the stat shows you Hightower is getting almost as many opportunities as stud RB's at the goal-line and being just as effective as those more heralded players. Projections: 140 carries, 580 yards, 8 TD's, 68 catches, 440 yards, 1 TD

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This. While I expect Beanie to get more of the carries, he is not a good pass catching RB. I'm a huge Ohio State fan and have followed him since we recruited him as a senior in high school, and he's always been in the Eddie George mold of RB who is a hell of a runner but lacks receiving skills. I actually think that Beanie's style of running is less complementary to a team with an offense that overall is struggling, i.e., if I were the Cards I'd rather have a CJ Spiller type than a Beanie type. My guess is that the Cards will lack a downfield passing game w/o Warner and Boldin, Fitz's YPC will come way down, and Leinart or DA will check down to the RB a lot. Because Hightower is the significantly better receiving back, I see him being in the game for obvious passing downs, and more as he'll provide more of a crutch for whichever QB is in there. I love Beanie, and on teams with a QB that can keep the D honest he is a WAY more talented and better RB than Hightower, but I see a lot of Beanie's carries ending up in "3 yards and a cloud of dust" when facing 8 men in the box every carry. Hightower should be used on more misdirections and draw plays when running which should let him finish 2010 with a higher YPC than Beanie, and should clear 60 catches.

Jason Wood said:

By your own admission, Beanie was 50% (3 of 6) last year to Hightower's 58% (7 of 12). So to say "have all been better than him" is simply not accurate. Now there IS some value in pointing out that Arizona has been effective in general in short yardage. But that's hardly a reason to penalize Hightower.

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Dinging TH's talent because of noting that his success has been driven by situation over ability is 100% good reasoning.

Jason Wood said:

By your own admission, Beanie was 50% (3 of 6) last year to Hightower's 58% (7 of 12). So to say "have all been better than him" is simply not accurate.

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Over the last two years, Beanie/Edge's combined conversion percentages in goaline opportunities, 3rd and short situations, and 4th and short situations have ALL been higher than Hightower's. On the same team, with the same blockers and receiving threats. Yes, there is one particular subset in one particular year that Hightower was slightly better than one of them when looking at a very small sample size. That doesn't really change anything.

Jason Wood said:

Now there IS some value in pointing out that Arizona has been effective in general in short yardage. But that's hardly a reason to penalize Hightower.

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No one is "penalizing" Hightower for it, we're just not rewarding him.

Question:

If the fact is that the Arizona OL is so good that anyone who runs behind it scores a higher percentage of short-yardage TDS, wouldn't that make you want to draft Hightower MORE? IF he is currently ranked RB45, is that good value given his solid OL?

Will Grant said:

Question: If the fact is that the Arizona OL is so good that anyone who runs behind it scores a higher percentage of short-yardage TDS, wouldn't that make you want to draft Hightower MORE? IF he is currently ranked RB45, is that good value given his solid OL?

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Is there any reason why you think his OLine play, which is readily reflected in his historical stats, is not already baked into his ADP?

TWP said:

Will Grant said:

Question: If the fact is that the Arizona OL is so good that anyone who runs behind it scores a higher percentage of short-yardage TDS, wouldn't that make you want to draft Hightower MORE? IF he is currently ranked RB45, is that good value given his solid OL?

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Is there any reason why you think his OLine play, which is readily reflected in his historical stats, is not already baked into his ADP?

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The discussion was brought up in regards to Hightower's ability to keep Beanie Wells off the field. The point JWood was making was that because Hightower was so good at the goaline, he would get more playing time. Obviously, if it's not actually Hightower that's good at the goaline and just the Arizona unit as a whole, that's not a reason for him to get more playing time.

Will Grant said:

nittanylion said:

Right now, given where the rest of of them are falling (Fitz and Wells too high for my taste), and what I expect them to do (Breaston and Doucet, not as much as others seem to think) statistically, he's the only Cardinal skill position player that I'm rostering. He can be had cheaply and has a lot of upside potential, IMO.I don't really do projections this early, but I think Hightower will have roughly an equal # of carries as Wells, and will be the 2nd-leading receiver on the Cardinals in 2010, for whatever that's worth.Anyway, that's my opinion...

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Good stuff Nittany... In a redraft league, using your 18 round draft as an example - when would you take Hightower? 10th round? 11th?Just curious.

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Well, his current ADP is #109, which would be the 1st Pick of the 10th Round in a 'standard' 12-Team League. Scoring System and Starting Lineup Options play a big role in this decision...say it was PPR and you could flex out to 3RB's, I think getting the currently 45th ranked RB, who I think has enough upside under the right circumstances to finish around RB 28-32, I'd be willing to add him to my Flex group in the 9th Round. In a start 2 format with no flex, if I decided to go RB2BC, I'd like to acquire him as a piece of that, but would rather get him in the 10th, if I could. If he was available in the 11th, depending on the rest of the candidates on my short list, I'd be hard pressed not to draft him...I think he's got the potential upside of an 8th Round Pick, but I think I'd count on him falling to 9-10, and not necessarily be heartbroken if he didn't make it that far...HTH?