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Ricky Williams, RB, Miami Dolphins (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Ricky Williams, RB, Miami Dolphins

Player Page Link: Ricky Williams Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :goodposting: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
The Williams' love on this forum and in the FBG prognostications is completely off base this year. Look at these numbers:

Williams' performance in 9 games with Brown last year:

105 carries for 558 yards = 5.3 YPC

18 recepts for 193 yards = 10.7 YPR

7 TD

On a per game basis, that was good for 83 total yards and .78/ TD's on less than 14 touches :wall:

Then look at Williams without Brown last year:

136 carries for 563 yards = 4.1 YPC

17 recpts for 71 yards = 4.2 YPR

6 TD

In 7 Games he averaged 90 total yards and .86/ TD's on about 22 touches per game. :lmao: Not bad, but certainly not great.

Essentially the increase of 8 more touches per game without Brown available netted him seven more total yards per game. Huge let down. :goodposting:

But wait, it gets worse. Now look at how the wheels came off about halfway after becoming the primary RB:

Weeks 11-14

95 carries

417 yards

4.4 YPC

6 recepts

32 yards

5.3 YPR

The yards per rush numbers are down, which is not unexpected given a workload of almost 24 carries for game...then look how he closed the season:

Weeks 15-17

41 carries

146 yards

3.6 YPC

11 recepts

39 yards

3.5 YPR

Those are the numbers of a beaten down, past his prime 32 year old (he's 33 now) who can not be a feature back any longer.

Can Williams handle 150 touches? I would not count on it, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say maybe.

More importantly, can he handle the 250+ he'll need to be fantasy worthy in 2010? Absolutely not. He already proved that last year.

Williams will not be competing with Brown for the starting job. He will not be sharing the job, either. He will be a bit player to spell Brown et al for as long as his body will hold up this year.

2010 projections

92 carries

349 yards

3.8 YPC

16 recepts

64 yards

6.0 YPR

3 Total TDs

 
But wait, it gets worse. Now look at how the wheels came off about halfway after becoming the primary RB:

Weeks 11-14

95 carries

417 yards

4.4 YPC

6 recepts

32 yards

5.3 YPR

The yards per rush numbers are down, which is not unexpected given a workload of almost 24 carries for game...then look how he closed the season:

Weeks 15-17

41 carries

146 yards

3.6 YPC

11 recepts

39 yards

3.5 YPR

Those are the numbers of a beaten down, past his prime 32 year old (he's 33 now) who can not be a feature back any longer.

Can Williams handle 150 touches? I would not count on it, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say maybe.

More importantly, can he handle the 250+ he'll need to be fantasy worthy in 2010? Absolutely not. He already proved that last year.

Williams will not be competing with Brown for the starting job. He will not be sharing the job, either. He will be a bit player to spell Brown et al for as long as his body will hold up this year.

2010 projections

92 carries

349 yards

3.8 YPC

16 recepts

64 yards

6.0 YPR

3 Total TDs
. . . or, perhaps it had something to do with his opponents:Weeks 11-14, opponent & rush defense rank:

Carolina - 22

Buffalo - 30

New England - 13

Jax - 19

Weeks 15-17, opponent & rush defense rank:

Tennessee - 10

Houston - 10

Pittsburgh - 3

That's right, every week 15-17 opponent's rush defense outranked every week 11-14 opponent's rush defense. Do you still want to stand by your "beaten down, past his prime 32 year old" analysis based on this?

 
. . . or, perhaps it had something to do with his opponents:

Weeks 11-14, opponent & rush defense rank:

Carolina - 22

Buffalo - 30

New England - 13

Jax - 19

Weeks 15-17, opponent & rush defense rank:

Tennessee - 10

Houston - 10

Pittsburgh - 3

That's right, every week 15-17 opponent's rush defense outranked every week 11-14 opponent's rush defense. Do you still want to stand by your "beaten down, past his prime 32 year old" analysis based on this?
:thumbup: :thumbup: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: You do realize he got hurt in Week 11, right? As a result, he was a fumbling machine and the Dolphins admitted they knew he coudn't holp up. Look at these reports from last year:

Dolphins | R. Williams questionable for Week 17 Fri Jan 1, 11:34 PM

Omar Kelly, of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, reports Miami Dolphins RB Ricky Williams (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Week 17. Williams might play in the game, but he might not get a full workload.

Dolphins | R. Williams limited Thursday Thu Dec 31, 10:37 PM

Omar Kelly, of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, reports Miami Dolphins RB Ricky Williams (shoulder) was limited in practice Thursday, Dec. 31, and his status for Week 17 is uncertain.

Dolphins | Williams injured Week 16 Sun Dec 27, 04:13 PM

Miami Dolphins RB Ricky Williams (shoulder) suffered right shoulder injury in Week 16 and did not return.

Dolphins | Sparano concerned about Williams' fumbling Mon Dec 21, 06:09 PM

Miami Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano said during his press conference that he is concerned that RB Ricky Williams has fumbled four times in the last two weeks, losing two of the fumbles. However, Sparano said he is concerned with any turnovers. 'I am concerned with anybodies turnovers --- anybody's turnovers, Ricky, anybody. It doesn't really matter who it is, I am concerned about them. We address them. We try to put them in those positions in practice, those types of things. Try to make practice a little more physical in there, try to do as many drills as we can,' Sparano said.

Dolphins | Concerned about R. Williams wearing down physically Fri Dec 11, 12:30 AM

Omar Kelly, of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, reports the Miami Dolphins are concerned about RB Ricky Williams (chest, undisclosed) wearing down physically. Williams has been battling a chest injury the past three weeks, and he suffered an undisclosed injury to his lower body Week 13. He has been practicing without limitations, but he has also been spending a lot of time in the training room lately.

Dolphins | Williams practices Thursday Thu Dec 10, 04:44 PM

Omar Kelly, of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, reports Miami Dolphins RB Ricky Williams (chest) fully participated in practice Thursday, Dec. 10. He is expected to play in Week 14.

Dolphins | Williams probable for Week 13 Fri Dec 4, 09:03 PM

Omar Kelly, of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, reports Miami Dolphins RB Ricky Williams (chest) participated in practice Friday, Dec. 4. He is listed as probable for Week 13 and is expected to play.

Dolphins | R. Williams practices Friday Fri Nov 27, 09:55 PM

Omar Kelly, of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, reports Miami Dolphins RB Ricky Williams (chest) practiced Friday, Nov. 27, and he is expected to play Week 12.
Then there is the more recent news about Ricky's playing time:

Dolphins | Will use Cobbs more this year Sat Jun 5, 07:40 PM

CBSSports.com reports that the Dolphins are glad to have RB Patrick Cobbs (ACL) back after he was injured in 2009, and they have big plans for him in 2010 --- as a running back, Wildcat option, return specialist and gunner on special teams. "I have every reason to believe that he would make the full comeback and we would be able to give him all of his jobs just because of the guy, really," coach Tony Sparano said. "And as far as how much I've missed him, I think we've always said this during the season, but we missed this guy a lot."
...and his motivation.
Dolphins | Next season could be Ricky Williams' last in NFL Mon Apr 26, 07:18 PM

Bart Hubbuch, of the New York Post, reports Miami Dolphins RB Ricky Williams is ready to walk away from the NFL again Williams said, "I've been seriously considering the upcoming season being my last season. After everything I've been through, people still seem shocked that I'm ready to walk away because it's a good living monetarily."
Ricky is done. He knows it, and so do the Dolphins.
 
. . . or, perhaps it had something to do with his opponents:

Weeks 11-14, opponent & rush defense rank:

Carolina - 22

Buffalo - 30

New England - 13

Jax - 19

Weeks 15-17, opponent & rush defense rank:

Tennessee - 10

Houston - 10

Pittsburgh - 3

That's right, every week 15-17 opponent's rush defense outranked every week 11-14 opponent's rush defense. Do you still want to stand by your "beaten down, past his prime 32 year old" analysis based on this?
:blackdot: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: You do realize he got hurt in Week 11, right? As a result, he was a fumbling machine and the Dolphins admitted they knew he coudn't holp up. Look at these reports from last year:
And that information was so vitally important that you omitted it from your original analysis and only added it after I challenged your findings, adorned of course with a whole line of " :lmao: 's"? Mercy, that's convincing stuff right there.
 
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Ricky showed his age last season after becoming the main back when Brown went down. He broke down towards the end of the season and was not nearly as effective than when he shared the load with Ronnie.

Anyone who actually watches the games and watched every snap for Ricky (I did) noticed this and it was obvious. If your going to pin it on what teams he played etc etc...you did not watch the games nor noticed Ricky being obviously slower towards the later half of the season.

Ricky is a complimentry back this year ( and what he is there for period) as long as Brown can play all year (which has happened only once thus far). The Dolphins don't want Ricky to carry the load again if they can help it. If Ronnie goes down yet again look for Lex Hilliard to have a more substancial role this time around.

170 carries 680 yards 4 TD's 14 receptions 84 Yards 1 TD

 
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But wait, it gets worse. Now look at how the wheels came off about halfway after becoming the primary RB:

Weeks 11-14

95 carries

417 yards

4.4 YPC

6 recepts

32 yards

5.3 YPR

The yards per rush numbers are down, which is not unexpected given a workload of almost 24 carries for game...then look how he closed the season:

Weeks 15-17

41 carries

146 yards

3.6 YPC

11 recepts

39 yards

3.5 YPR

Those are the numbers of a beaten down, past his prime 32 year old (he's 33 now) who can not be a feature back any longer.

Can Williams handle 150 touches? I would not count on it, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say maybe.

More importantly, can he handle the 250+ he'll need to be fantasy worthy in 2010? Absolutely not. He already proved that last year.

Williams will not be competing with Brown for the starting job. He will not be sharing the job, either. He will be a bit player to spell Brown et al for as long as his body will hold up this year.

2010 projections

92 carries

349 yards

3.8 YPC

16 recepts

64 yards

6.0 YPR

3 Total TDs
. . . or, perhaps it had something to do with his opponents:Weeks 11-14, opponent & rush defense rank:

Carolina - 22

Buffalo - 30

New England - 13

Jax - 19

Weeks 15-17, opponent & rush defense rank:

Tennessee - 10

Houston - 10

Pittsburgh - 3

That's right, every week 15-17 opponent's rush defense outranked every week 11-14 opponent's rush defense. Do you still want to stand by your "beaten down, past his prime 32 year old" analysis based on this?
With Borwn they ran the wildcat with Ricky as the swing back. Meaning every time ricky got the rock it was on a stretch play in a single-wing formation essentially. With Ronnie out of the lineup it went to a traditional I or shotgun. Thus the dropoff in ypc. This is why stats have to be coupled with film. One without the other presents a misleading picture, which is why we are all year. FBG analysts look at stats and film.Ricky:

215 x 4.6 = 989 ru, 45 x 9.8 ypr = 441 rec, 8 TD ru, 5 TD rec = very good year for ADP

that's assuming Brown plays 16 games, which I don't believe

Ricky(w/Brown playing 8-10 games)

265 x 4.3 = 1140 ru 10 TDs, 25 x 8.2 ypr = 205 yds and 3 TDs = very good year for ADP

IMO, Ricky is a can't miss RB3 for redraft.

Ricky, depending on format, was somewhere between RB6 and RB14 last year.

 
Ricky showed his age last season after becoming the main back when Brown went down. He broke down towards the end of the season and was not nearly as effective than when he shared the load with Ronnie.Anyone who actually watches the games and watched every snap for Ricky (I did) noticed this and it was obvious. If your going to pin it on what teams he played etc etc...you did not watch the games nor noticed Ricky being obviously slower towards the later half of the season.Ricky is a complimentry back this year ( and what he is there for period) as long as Brown can play all year (which has happened only once thus far). The Dolphins don't want Ricky to carry the load again if they can help it. If Ronnie goes down yet again look for Lex Hilliard to have a more substancial role this time around.170 carries 680 yards 4 TD's 14 receptions 84 Yards 1 TD
This is how I see it too. Ricky is not a player I want on my teams. If you have Brown and want another MIA RB (as deep sleeper), I would take Hilliard.
 
I love reading about how folks think Ricky will be terrible this year. Keep bringing his ADP down, and his upside looking even brighter.

Currently at ADP around 30, RW's projections would need to fall around 10 carries per game and his Yards/Att down to 3.8 (170/650/6, 30/210/1). If you don't think he can find the zone 6 times on the ground (he had 6 through 10 games with Ronnie B), then of course an ADP of 30 is still too high. With Ronnie B in the lineup RW averaged 12 carries last year. Now if we give him 12 carries per game with a 4.2 avg, and a few more catches he jumps up in the upper teens (200/850/6, 35/280/1).

I definitely think maintaining 12 carries per game with a healthy Ronnie B in the lineup is feasible. He is 33, but his playing age is a few years younger based on the sabbatical he took. At an ADP of 30, Ricky has a nice upside, especially if Ronnie gets hurt for any period of time, and Ricky continues finding the end zone.

 
I love reading about how folks think Ricky will be terrible this year. Keep bringing his ADP down, and his upside looking even brighter.Currently at ADP around 30, RW's projections would need to fall around 10 carries per game and his Yards/Att down to 3.8 (170/650/6, 30/210/1). If you don't think he can find the zone 6 times on the ground (he had 6 through 10 games with Ronnie B), then of course an ADP of 30 is still too high. With Ronnie B in the lineup RW averaged 12 carries last year. Now if we give him 12 carries per game with a 4.2 avg, and a few more catches he jumps up in the upper teens (200/850/6, 35/280/1). I definitely think maintaining 12 carries per game with a healthy Ronnie B in the lineup is feasible. He is 33, but his playing age is a few years younger based on the sabbatical he took. At an ADP of 30, Ricky has a nice upside, especially if Ronnie gets hurt for any period of time, and Ricky continues finding the end zone.
Last year before the season I was glowing about him and thought he was a steal. Loved his value. This year not so much. He is showed his age down the stretch. It was concerning how much he slowed down at the end last year. I just think if Ronnie plays a full season he (Ronnie) will get a lot of work this season.Nothing against Ricky. We love him and 10-12 touches is about right. But I see a drop in TD's with Brandon Marshall in the mix as a massive red zone target now.
 
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That was an interesting "A Football Life" about him tonight.

I know a lot of people probably consider his career to be a disappointment considering where he was drafted, and what the Saints gave up for him. But he had over 10,000 career rushing yards, as well as an unbelievable year in 2002 with Miami -- 2,216 total yards, 47 receptions and 17 TDs. Not a bad fantasy season.

 
Owned him in that 09 season, 1400 total yards, 13 tds, helped carry me to a title. Always enjoyed his game.

 
Think some people here may be a tad young and not watched Rickey in in heyday. He was awesome. Like Arian foster awesome. Probably better at times.

 
That was an interesting "A Football Life" about him tonight.

I know a lot of people probably consider his career to be a disappointment considering where he was drafted, and what the Saints gave up for him. But he had over 10,000 career rushing yards, as well as an unbelievable year in 2002 with Miami -- 2,216 total yards, 47 receptions and 17 TDs. Not a bad fantasy season.
Thought it was interesting, went from doing post-game interviews with his helmet on to this. He's gotten a lot more comfortable in front of people (or at least managing it well).

 
That was an interesting "A Football Life" about him tonight.I know a lot of people probably consider his career to be a disappointment considering where he was drafted, and what the Saints gave up for him. But he had over 10,000 career rushing yards, as well as an unbelievable year in 2002 with Miami -- 2,216 total yards, 47 receptions and 17 TDs. Not a bad fantasy season.
2002 was my first FF championship and he was a huge part. I will always have fond memories of Ricky from that year.

 
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That was an interesting "A Football Life" about him tonight.

I know a lot of people probably consider his career to be a disappointment considering where he was drafted, and what the Saints gave up for him. But he had over 10,000 career rushing yards, as well as an unbelievable year in 2002 with Miami -- 2,216 total yards, 47 receptions and 17 TDs. Not a bad fantasy season.
Thought it was interesting, went from doing post-game interviews with his helmet on to this. He's gotten a lot more comfortable in front of people (or at least managing it well).
Agreed. He comes on the radio down here about once a week and is terrific IMO. Happy for him and seems to be doing well. One of the more talented backs I've ever seen. He seemed to help spark the resurgence of Texas football, there were some bad times before that. We need to find another Ricky again...

 
Agreed. He comes on the radio down here about once a week and is terrific IMO. Happy for him and seems to be doing well. One of the more talented backs I've ever seen. He seemed to help spark the resurgence of Texas football, there were some bad times before that. We need to find another Ricky again...
Amen. I thought we might have found another in Malcolm Brown or Johnathan Gray, but neither are in the same class as Ricky.

Ricky's time with the Dolphins is the reason I went from a solely college football fan to an NFL fan. His dissapointing start with the Saints and his love of Mary Jane are the only things that held him back from an exceptional career IMO.

 

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