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5 Keys To Being A Better Drafter (1 Viewer)

Joe T

Footballguy
If you are serious about being a better drafter, I'm going to give you five easy steps to getting there.

1. You Have To Be Flexible

If you are at all like I used to be, you think draft planning is the most crucial element to drafting. Well, it's not. And you certainly do not want a plan that paints you into a corner in the middle or late rounds which is where most drafts are won and lost.

DO NOT go in with a plan anything like these: "I must have two running backs in the first two rounds" or "I must have a wide receiver in the first three rounds" or "In round four, I'm grabbing Gates because I like those little lightning bolts on the Chargers helmets." Any must do plan is setting you up for the opposite of flexibility.

The reason being flexible is so key is that in any round you can take any position. When value falls to you at wide receiver, you are there to scoop it up. If it is a running back that falls, hey you can grab him just as easily. Quarterback? Take him! You are flexible!

I've found that covering several positions in the first four to five rounds will lead to unlimited options in the later rounds.

So let’s do two quick draft samples each giving you positions taken in the first four rounds:

Draft 1: You make picks of running back, running back, quarterback, running back in the first four rounds. What do you need in the fifth round? The answer is you probably have to take a wide receiver regardless of what players are of value at that point.

Draft 2: If your first four rounds go running back, wide receiver, quarterback, tight end. What do you need in the 5th round? The answer is the best available player. Then what do I need in the sixth round? Again, the best available player.

I'm not advocating taking four different positions in the first four rounds although doing so gives you lots of options in later rounds, I'm advocating being flexible. The more you mix up your positions in the early rounds the more flexibility you have in the late rounds to grab the guys that will inevitably fall to you.

2. You Must Identify Several Players Of Value To Target During The Draft

This is not easy (and let me be the first to recognize that drafting is not a science), but you have to identify a few players before the draft that you are targeting. These are the players that have an average draft position below what you think their actual value may be.

These types of players are the difference in competing for a playoff spot and competing for a championship. I'd recommend trying to narrow the list to 3-5 must have players. You may not get them all, but have the list there with an idea on where you must take them.

3. Tier Players Within Positional Rankings

Tiering is a way to group players that are similar in value. This is a very good way to identify value. I will give you a draft example where tiering is important.

Let's say you are at the end of round four and all of the running backs and receivers in your top tiers are gone, but there are still two quarterbacks in your top tier and one tight end in your top tier. This helps you narrow your decision down to grabbing a player in one of these two positions.

In this case, you could take either a quarterback or a tight end. You might lean towards the tight end since he is the last one in the top tier and possibly (hopefully) one of the remaining top tier quarterbacks make it back to you in the next round.

4. Be Wary Of Bye Weeks, But Not too Wary.

You need to have a cheat sheet or rankings list that has the players bye week next to his name. This can help you if you can not decide between two players of like value. Then just take a look at the bye week and decide which one is more optimal for your team.

I do not advocate avoiding a player if one of your other main players has the same bye week. Always draft the best player available if it is clear in your mind that this is the best player. You are not setting out to win every week by lining up your bye weeks perfectly, but to win the championship by having the best team.

There are no bye weeks in the playoffs so drafting the best player available is always most important. If you do have the option of two players who will perform very close to the other, then feel free to use the bye week as a deciding factor.

5. Do Not Use an "Average Draft Ranking" (compilation list) to Draft From

Tons of fantasy sites use player ranking compilations from various sources or staff members as a way to have an unbiased draft list. This is a terrible idea. Using an "average ranking" to draft from will only result in having an average draft.

Some staff members are better than others. Some site's ranking are better than others. If you want to win, find the best source, not the "average" source. I'm not here to tell you who is best, but there are places out there that will do that for you. Use those places to your advantage.

Quite simply, do not use "average rankings" to draft from.

Okay, those are your five keys to being a better drafter this year.

One last tip -

Relax and Enjoy Your Draft

Fantasy football is about having fun. Draft day is like your 2nd Christmas.

 
6. Know your league and their drafting tendencies, and use this to your advantage.

7. Get the other people at your draft drunk.

 
Put your personal homerisms aside. Don't draft Tony Romo in the first round just because you are a Cowboys fan.

 
5. Do Not Use an "Average Draft Ranking" (compilation list) to Draft From

Tons of fantasy sites use player ranking compilations from various sources or staff members as a way to have an unbiased draft list. This is a terrible idea. Using an "average ranking" to draft from will only result in having an average draft.

Some staff members are better than others. Some site's ranking are better than others. If you want to win, find the best source, not the "average" source. I'm not here to tell you who is best, but there are places out there that will do that for you. Use those places to your advantage.

Quite simply, do not use "average rankings" to draft from.

Okay, those are your five keys to being a better drafter this year.

One last tip -

Relax and Enjoy Your Draft

Fantasy football is about having fun. Draft day is like your 2nd Christmas.
So if I used the Top 300 PPR from FBG list this would be a bad thing?
 
5. Do Not Use an "Average Draft Ranking" (compilation list) to Draft From

Tons of fantasy sites use player ranking compilations from various sources or staff members as a way to have an unbiased draft list. This is a terrible idea. Using an "average ranking" to draft from will only result in having an average draft.

Some staff members are better than others. Some site's ranking are better than others. If you want to win, find the best source, not the "average" source. I'm not here to tell you who is best, but there are places out there that will do that for you. Use those places to your advantage.

Quite simply, do not use "average rankings" to draft from.

Okay, those are your five keys to being a better drafter this year.

One last tip -

Relax and Enjoy Your Draft

Fantasy football is about having fun. Draft day is like your 2nd Christmas.
So if I used the Top 300 PPR from FBG list this would be a bad thing?
Not sure, doesn't David Dodds do the top 300 individually?

 
5. Do Not Use an "Average Draft Ranking" (compilation list) to Draft From

Tons of fantasy sites use player ranking compilations from various sources or staff members as a way to have an unbiased draft list. This is a terrible idea. Using an "average ranking" to draft from will only result in having an average draft.

Some staff members are better than others. Some site's ranking are better than others. If you want to win, find the best source, not the "average" source. I'm not here to tell you who is best, but there are places out there that will do that for you. Use those places to your advantage.

Quite simply, do not use "average rankings" to draft from.

Okay, those are your five keys to being a better drafter this year.

One last tip -

Relax and Enjoy Your Draft

Fantasy football is about having fun. Draft day is like your 2nd Christmas.
So if I used the Top 300 PPR from FBG list this would be a bad thing?
Pretty sure that's just based on David's ranking, so if you think he's the best go ahead and use it...
 
5. Do Not Use an "Average Draft Ranking" (compilation list) to Draft From

Tons of fantasy sites use player ranking compilations from various sources or staff members as a way to have an unbiased draft list. This is a terrible idea. Using an "average ranking" to draft from will only result in having an average draft.

Some staff members are better than others. Some site's ranking are better than others. If you want to win, find the best source, not the "average" source. I'm not here to tell you who is best, but there are places out there that will do that for you. Use those places to your advantage.

Quite simply, do not use "average rankings" to draft from.

Okay, those are your five keys to being a better drafter this year.

One last tip -

Relax and Enjoy Your Draft

Fantasy football is about having fun. Draft day is like your 2nd Christmas.
So if I used the Top 300 PPR from FBG list this would be a bad thing?
Pretty sure that's just based on David's ranking, so if you think he's the best go ahead and use it...
Yes that's correct, and he matches those up with ADP to create the + - differential which has worked out well for me the past two years.
 
Great list, and I too like #6 and use it.

I'm a huge fan of being a flexible drafter and tiering players to find value. The days of drafting on tilt are LONG gone...

 
roster size and starting lineup flexibility are huge.....use any "flex" positions to your advantage based on scoring system.....

 
Whatever data or drafting aids you bring, be organized. Consolidate the information as much as possible to keep it cleaner and simpler.

 
I would also add knowing your opponents roster. At least the rosters on your half of the draft. My favorite spot to draft this year is 1.04. Make sure you keep track of at least the 3 teams in front of you.

If it is the 4th round and you are deciding to take a QB or a TE look at the opposing team's roster. If you can deal with having one of two QBs and two of the three teams have a QB already, one of the guys will be there at the turn, so take the BPA available that you are pretty sure will not be there later.

 
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I would also add knowing your opponents roster. At least the rosters on your half of the draft. My favorite spot to draft this year is 1.04. Make sure you keep track of at least the 3 teams in front of you. If it is the 4th round and you are deciding to take a QB or a TE look at the opposing team's roster. If you can deal with having one of two QBs and two of the three teams have a QB already, one of the guys will be there at the turn, so take the BPA available that you are pretty sure will not be there later.
Another excellent rule in a thread with some great rules. Another is, don't get bogged down by the runs. If you get caught at the end of the TE run, seriously consider taking another position rather than taking a player too early because he happens to play TE.
 
Joe T said:
Draft 2: If your first four rounds go running back, wide receiver, quarterback, tight end. What do you need in the 5th round? The answer is the best available player. Then what do I need in the sixth round? Again, the best available player.I'm not advocating taking four different positions in the first four rounds although doing so gives you lots of options in later rounds, I'm advocating being flexible. The more you mix up your positions in the early rounds the more flexibility you have in the late rounds to grab the guys that will inevitably fall to you.
unless they are at the QB or TE position
 
Stinkin Ref said:
roster size and starting lineup flexibility are huge.....use any "flex" positions to your advantage based on scoring system.....
Definitely echoing this. Also be smart about what exactly your flex options are too.Drafting in a 12 Team 1 QB/2 RB/3 WR/1 TE/0 Flex league places a lot of value on certain positions. That value changes dramatically when compared to say a 20 Team 1 QB/2 RB/4 WR+TE Flex league.Some leagues may include a QB as a flex position possibility. If you are in a league that rewards QBs a little higher, it may be more advantageous to take that 2nd QB and slot him in your flex as opposed to that 3rd RB or 5th WR.
 
I think one of the most obvious mistakes people make during drafting is trying to fill their lineups. Obviously if you have two players rated similiarly, then you take the need position, but dont take a RB just to fill out your roster if there's a significantly better WR on the board. Always take the best player. Obviously there might be a time when you have 5 WRs and 1 RB and you need a RB no matter what, but that's why you tier your players and plan your draft in a way so your drafting is balanced. If you're picking first and you know that you like more of the RBs later than you like the WRs, than take the WRs now so you can hit those other RBs later.

I can't believe people still start taking IDP players, or backup QBs in rounds 9-15 while I'm still hitting skill positions. I'm in a dynasty league but I didn't draft my first defensive player until round 20 this year, but that's just b/c there was a huge run on them and Charles Woodson was still sitting there, or I would have waited even longer. I just stockpiled on WRs and RBs all day, got a bunch of handcuffs and found servicable defensive players at the end of the draft and on the waiver wire. Obviously there's situations where a Kolb might fall too far and you decide he's worth it, but generally speaking the Miles Austins and Sidney Rice's will win the league, not your backup to Tony Romo or your Jon Beasons . Beason might get you 8-15 points a game based on your scoring system. Urlacher or some other lower rated LB might get me 5-10 points a game, how's that win a championship? It's that late round gem that will push you above the rest of your league. I ended up scoring Brian Cushing off the waiver wire, so that'll help my team when it really counts, in the middle and later parts of the season. Obviously every league is different, but there's always a sleeper or two hiding out there.

Personally I don't really care about BYE weeks. Only BYE week that is important is my backup QBs, even then if a QB I'm high on falls too much I'll grab him regardless of BYE (Grabbed Campbell after I had Aaron Rodgers, then added Matt Moore).

 
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I can't believe people still start taking IDP players, or backup QBs in rounds 9-15 while I'm still hitting skill positions.
This is completely dependent upon your league's scoring system.I have played in leagues where defensive scoring is nearly on par with the offense. Waiting until round 15(or beyond) to take your first defender in a format like that would be the kiss of death.
 
I can't believe people still start taking IDP players, or backup QBs in rounds 9-15 while I'm still hitting skill positions.
This is completely dependent upon your league's scoring system.I have played in leagues where defensive scoring is nearly on par with the offense. Waiting until round 15(or beyond) to take your first defender in a format like that would be the kiss of death.
Brings us back to:
butcher boy said:
6. Know your league and their drafting tendencies, and use this to your advantage.

7. Get the other people at your draft drunk.
I'm a fan of taking IDPs earlier than others, but only if they're core types. I'll take Jon Beason or Curtis Lofton over a low level backup WR any day.
 
I can't believe people still start taking IDP players, or backup QBs in rounds 9-15 while I'm still hitting skill positions.
This is completely dependent upon your league's scoring system.I have played in leagues where defensive scoring is nearly on par with the offense. Waiting until round 15(or beyond) to take your first defender in a format like that would be the kiss of death.
One of my leagues is a 2-QB, 6-point TD keeper league where a dozen or so quarterbacks are already claimed and the Kevin Kolbs/Matthew Staffords/Alex Smiths of the world will be snapped up before the end of Round 2.Another is a 20-team redraft upstart with crazy 12-FP payouts for things like punts returned for TDs where I will probably grab a team defense sometime in Round 4 or 5.Every league is different which is what makes fantasy football so compelling.
 
understand roster limitations vs. position scarcity

Being able to take advantage of ALL value on the board is important. If you go RB early and often and a surprise RB falls (like always) you might have to pass.

Position value, to your roster, fluctuates as you build depth.

 
I'll def agree the strategy changes if you're in a 2QB start league, or leagues with smaller offensive starting lineups. I'd personally still prefer to take chances on guys like Jacobey and James Jones, Arrelious Benn, Devin Thomas, Bernard Scott, Devin Hester, etc instead of grabbing defenders too early. One of these guys will have a breakout year but that's my opinion. This strategy obviously isn't as important in regular 2/2/1 leagues as it is in leagues with more skill position starting spots.

Defense wins championships, but not in fantasy football. But hey, that's my opinion.

 
Tons of fantasy sites use player ranking compilations from various sources or staff members as a way to have an unbiased draft list. This is a terrible idea. Using an "average ranking" to draft from will only result in having an average draft.
Study and understand the wisdom of crowds and you will learn that this, while sounding true, may in fact be the opposite.
 
Cant agree more about knowing your league's scoring but just because your league is a heavy on defensive scoring it doesnt mean you have to take a defense in the third round. A guy did that in one league last year and he had the best defense all season, while his team was in last place because he passed on a skill player to take a defense too early and ended up with a crappy WR#2.

 
Tons of fantasy sites use player ranking compilations from various sources or staff members as a way to have an unbiased draft list. This is a terrible idea. Using an "average ranking" to draft from will only result in having an average draft.
Study and understand the wisdom of crowds and you will learn that this, while sounding true, may in fact be the opposite.
...which makes ADP the most undeniably effective tool in draft preparation.
 
I definitely will agree with that, I've noticed a couple things about the IDP positions, correct me if I'm wrong. The Linebackers are more consistent from year to year. DBs although there are a few names that are consistently up there, there's always a bigger turnover, and obviously its hard to predict tackles, INTs, and PD for the DBs. Patrick Willis is the best LB in the game, but I'd rather take a chance with a guy like Hester or Marion Barber (with a handcuff of Tashard Choice later) in a deeper offensive league. There's a good chunk of MLBs that I can always snag later later who will still give me that middle of the defense ballhawk production. But I'll agree in a smaller offensive league, I'd much rather have the best LB on the board in my starting lineup instead of a 4th or 5th RB that'll just give me matchup headaches all year.

 
I would also add knowing your opponents roster. At least the rosters on your half of the draft. My favorite spot to draft this year is 1.04. Make sure you keep track of at least the 3 teams in front of you. If it is the 4th round and you are deciding to take a QB or a TE look at the opposing team's roster. If you can deal with having one of two QBs and two of the three teams have a QB already, one of the guys will be there at the turn, so take the BPA available that you are pretty sure will not be there later.
This might be the greatest little known advantage of drafting there is. It certainly works better in different spots and either 1.04 or 1.09 are ideal for this type of strategy, but if you have an understanding of what needs 25-33% of your leagues owners are having as the draft progresses, you can really take great advantage of value plays that falls through the cracks.One other tip: This you probably have to do for a year before you can start to take advantage of it. But track which positions each of your owners struggled with the previous season. If they tried to get by with a Carson Palmer/Matt Hasselbeck combination at QB last season, there is a decent chance, they will put a higher priority on that position this season. If an owner was counting on Anthony Gonzalez to be his WR2 and was never able to fill in that hole in his line-up either via trade or FA pick-up, decent chance he might go WR2 earlier than the 6th round.While this probably falls under the 'know your league' mantra...this specifically is something I've been doing for a couple of years now and it's paid dividends in knowing where my other owners heads might be.
 
Excellent thread.

I will throw one out.

Don't lower a player's value because you think he will miss games due to a hold out. The money is undefeated.

 
Tons of fantasy sites use player ranking compilations from various sources or staff members as a way to have an unbiased draft list. This is a terrible idea. Using an "average ranking" to draft from will only result in having an average draft.
Study and understand the wisdom of crowds and you will learn that this, while sounding true, may in fact be the opposite.
This is a thought provoking point, but I'm still not sure I'd rather have the "crowd" view when I can have the view of someone with an exceptional track record. The crowd is filled with exceptional, average, and bad views all combined into one average view. If you can isolate the exceptional views, why not just use those?
 
Joe T said:
5. Do Not Use an "Average Draft Ranking" (compilation list) to Draft From

Tons of fantasy sites use player ranking compilations from various sources or staff members as a way to have an unbiased draft list. This is a terrible idea. Using an "average ranking" to draft from will only result in having an average draft.
I am trying to understand this a bit better. I don't draft direct off an ADP list, but find that it is valuable in knowing approximately where to expect players to go.

I like to layout players in a list based on ADP when do draft planning so I have the expectation of where players 'can be had.' ie, if I see a bunch of mid-tier RBs that I am happy with going 5th-9th rounds, and a QB I love much more than others usually going in the 3rd, then I'll plan to grab that QB in the 3rd (or 2nd) knowing that RBs are avail later. I usually have a backup plan for any position, so that if that QB is gone, I have some late-late guys to pair up in a committee.

Also, to me it's not *exactly* best player available. Why would you take DeAngelo and Mendenhall in the 1st and 2nd if you are drafting 10th position, esp if you know there are a bunch of RBs avail later (according to ADP?) and that the WRs you covet are all going to be gone?

I think you have to have a system, whether that be tiering, some variable value (VBD, etc), or have a 'draft map' where you layout players that will be available across the draft (based on ADP), and plan your team according to your target players (and their average value).

I wouldn't mind getting some dialog going on Teiring vs. 'Draft Map', since I have not really worked this out in my head yet. I used to use straight Teiring, but kept an ADP list open so I could guess how long guys in a Teir would last. I recently switched over to the 'Draft Map' idea, but last year went more on Best Player Available based on a trusted rankings list and actually got stung. I didn't get any of the players I really wanted, and didn't like my team. I didn't do very well either.

So, I am hoping to work out my Draft Map, which is based on this idea of Target Players (as mentioned in OP and David Dodds article).

 
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Joe T said:
5. Do Not Use an "Average Draft Ranking" (compilation list) to Draft From

Tons of fantasy sites use player ranking compilations from various sources or staff members as a way to have an unbiased draft list. This is a terrible idea. Using an "average ranking" to draft from will only result in having an average draft.
I am trying to understand this a bit better. I don't draft direct off an ADP list, but find that it is valuable in knowing approximately where to expect players to go.

I like to layout players in a list based on ADP when do draft planning so I have the expectation of where players 'can be had.' ie, if I see a bunch of mid-tier RBs that I am happy with going 5th-9th rounds, and a QB I love much more than others usually going in the 3rd, then I'll plan to grab that QB in the 3rd (or 2nd) knowing that RBs are avail later. I usually have a backup plan for any position, so that if that QB is gone, I have some late-late guys to pair up in a committee.

Also, to me it's not *exactly* best player available. Why would you take DeAngelo and Mendenhall in the 1st and 2nd if you are drafting 10th position, esp if you know there are a bunch of RBs avail later (according to ADP?) and that the WRs you covet are all going to be gone?

I think you have to have a system, whether that be tiering, some variable value (VBD, etc), or have a 'draft map' where you layout players that will be available across the draft (based on ADP), and plan your team according to your target players (and their average value).
Black,

I think I'm on the same page here. Some leagues are looser than others and some are tighter. I don't play in any leagues where trading of draft picks happens at the draft. It's easy to say "that's a terrible pick, there was lots of better value in that round". However, if you NEED that guy on your team, then you have to take him before anyone else is considering him. If he's a nice to have player, then you can wait to get that player at his "value" but you risk losing him.

For example, 2 guys I wanted to have last year were Pierre Thomas and Ray Rice. Pierre Thomas' ADP was in the 3rd. Ray Rice's was in the 4th/5th. I took Thomas at the end of the 2nd in 1 league and Rice in the mid-3rd in another. Everyone said I overpaid. In my mind, that was their value. I knew they were both going to be awesome (my crystal ball must've been a little cloudy) and I insured I got them.

This year, I NEED hester or knox on my team. Their ADP's are currenty in 7th/9th respectively and I'll take Hester in the 6th and Knox in the 8th as of today. If that changes in the pre-season, i'll reevaluate. I also like Gaffney. I have no idea where his ADP is but I know I'll reach for him too at around the same time that I expect mason and santana moss to go off the board.

One thing I expect to do this year is to go QB early depending on my draft slot as I want the biggest rewards on my investments. If I'm early in the draft, I'll get Romo in the early 3rd. If I'm late, I'll get peyton or brees in the early 2nd. Regardless, I have a general idea of which guys I'm going for dependent on where I draft. I have what I believe is a successful strategy that is flexible in the early rounds and molds with the draft as it goes on.

- Lefteye

 
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Tons of fantasy sites use player ranking compilations from various sources or staff members as a way to have an unbiased draft list. This is a terrible idea. Using an "average ranking" to draft from will only result in having an average draft.
Study and understand the wisdom of crowds and you will learn that this, while sounding true, may in fact be the opposite.
This is a thought provoking point, but I'm still not sure I'd rather have the "crowd" view when I can have the view of someone with an exceptional track record. The crowd is filled with exceptional, average, and bad views all combined into one average view. If you can isolate the exceptional views, why not just use those?
Because it is extremely difficult to isolate "exceptional" views. As they say in the market "past performance is not indicative of future performance"- trying to select for future production by taking guys who have excellent track records in the past doesn't work out nearly as often as one would expect. Many excellent producers are really average producers with a bit of luck or bad producers with a lot of luck and because of the way distributions generally work poor to average producers outnumber truly excellent producers by such a huge margin that not just some but MOST excellent producers are in fact closer to average than they are to excellent (and some excellent producers will look average to worse due to bad luck).
 
Tons of fantasy sites use player ranking compilations from various sources or staff members as a way to have an unbiased draft list. This is a terrible idea. Using an "average ranking" to draft from will only result in having an average draft.
Study and understand the wisdom of crowds and you will learn that this, while sounding true, may in fact be the opposite.
This is a thought provoking point, but I'm still not sure I'd rather have the "crowd" view when I can have the view of someone with an exceptional track record. The crowd is filled with exceptional, average, and bad views all combined into one average view. If you can isolate the exceptional views, why not just use those?
You're saying the same thing, baconisgood just makes it sound more like SunTzu (or at least Surowiecki's contrarian). Bottom line is, if you know what the masses think, and you know where they're wrong, you can exploit that. Just knowing what you know isn't enough.
 
For example, 2 guys I wanted to have last year were Pierre Thomas and Ray Rice. Pierre Thomas' ADP was in the 3rd. Ray Rice's was in the 4th/5th. I took Thomas at the end of the 2nd in 1 league and Rice in the mid-3rd in another. Everyone said I overpaid. In my mind, that was their value. I knew they were both going to be awesome (my crystal ball must've been a little cloudy) and I insured I got them.

This year, I NEED hester or knox on my team. Their ADP's are currenty in 7th/9th respectively and I'll take Hester in the 6th and Knox in the 8th as of today. If that changes in the pre-season, i'll reevaluate. I also like Gaffney. I have no idea where his ADP is but I know I'll reach for him too at around the same time that I expect mason and santana moss to go off the board.

One thing I expect to do this year is to go QB early depending on my draft slot as I want the biggest rewards on my investments. If I'm early in the draft, I'll get Romo in the early 3rd. If I'm late, I'll get peyton or brees in the early 2nd. Regardless, I have a general idea of which guys I'm going for dependent on where I draft. I have what I believe is a successful strategy that is flexible in the early rounds and molds with the draft as it goes on.

- Lefteye
That's pretty much what happened to me last year. I decided to set aside my 'target/must have' list and went for value: pretty much looking at VBD vs. ADP diffs, and getting guys who fell. I got some value (Re Bush, Addai...PPR league). I didn't get the exact players you are talking about, because a more savvy owner did what you did: grabbed both P.Thomas and R.Rice a round early (same spots you did)!! I actually liked his team much better than mine that day (and told him that as we finished the last round). It paid off for him, as he cruised through the season. So, there's a balance to be had. I think it starts with:

1. creating a rankings list of your own (or modifying a trusted one).

2. break players into Teirs by position.

3. remove/mark any 'do not draft' guys (or mark them clearly...it helps to know there are other players out there another team might want when you are making decisions on what position to target. ie, if you see 5 RBs left of similar value, 3 of which you want, you can take a chance that one of your 3 will come back. If there is truly only 1-2 RB left in a group, you better pull the trigger.

4. layout your players (Teirs marked/color coded, etc.) in a Draft Map by Round. Now you can start seeing who you 'expect' to be there round by round.

5. get an idea about your must have players/positions (Target Players), and massage who you should take in other rounds based on what positional needs you will most likely have. this can be pretty flexible.

6. have a 'by committee' backup plan for TE/QB if you know you'll be drafting WR/RB heavy or have just a single TE/QB you might target early.

7. have a list of sleepers at all positions for your last few rounds that can help provide depth at positions you might need it.

 
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Tons of fantasy sites use player ranking compilations from various sources or staff members as a way to have an unbiased draft list. This is a terrible idea. Using an "average ranking" to draft from will only result in having an average draft.
Study and understand the wisdom of crowds and you will learn that this, while sounding true, may in fact be the opposite.
This is a thought provoking point, but I'm still not sure I'd rather have the "crowd" view when I can have the view of someone with an exceptional track record. The crowd is filled with exceptional, average, and bad views all combined into one average view. If you can isolate the exceptional views, why not just use those?
You're saying the same thing, baconisgood just makes it sound more like SunTzu (or at least Surowiecki's contrarian). Bottom line is, if you know what the masses think, and you know where they're wrong, you can exploit that. Just knowing what you know isn't enough.
That is not what I am trying to say. The concept of the wisdom of the crowds is basically that over large enough samples/populations random things like biases (non systemic biases at least) tend to cancel each other out and the wisdom of the experts shines through- no matter who the experts are.
 
If you come in knowing where you are drafting which is most of the time, much better to have a battle plan going in. This year like most I am much more comfortable with drafting int he 10, 11, and 12 hole because of the depth at RB and being able to snag guys in the 4th-7th rounds while loading up on top tier WRs in the 1st 2-3 rounds...

Nice thread though, well thought out and good posting by the SP back and forth.

 
Tons of fantasy sites use player ranking compilations from various sources or staff members as a way to have an unbiased draft list. This is a terrible idea. Using an "average ranking" to draft from will only result in having an average draft.
Study and understand the wisdom of crowds and you will learn that this, while sounding true, may in fact be the opposite.
This is a thought provoking point, but I'm still not sure I'd rather have the "crowd" view when I can have the view of someone with an exceptional track record. The crowd is filled with exceptional, average, and bad views all combined into one average view. If you can isolate the exceptional views, why not just use those?
You're saying the same thing, baconisgood just makes it sound more like SunTzu (or at least Surowiecki's contrarian). Bottom line is, if you know what the masses think, and you know where they're wrong, you can exploit that. Just knowing what you know isn't enough.
That is not what I am trying to say. The concept of the wisdom of the crowds is basically that over large enough samples/populations random things like biases (non systemic biases at least) tend to cancel each other out and the wisdom of the experts shines through- no matter who the experts are.
I see. We'll have to agree to disagree here, then. That's not how I use ADP. I use it to find out which players represent value to me. In other words, if I've got Chad Johnson as the #10 WR on the board, but everyone else has him as the #20, I know I don't need to draft him as the #10. I can wait on Chad and get a guy where the masses and I agree, or even better, another player that the masses have let slip below where I think they are ranked.This pretty much sums up how I feel about ADP. But again, that represents an opportunity to me.

 
I see. We'll have to agree to disagree here, then. That's not how I use ADP. I use it to find out which players represent value to me. In other words, if I've got Chad Johnson as the #10 WR on the board, but everyone else has him as the #20, I know I don't need to draft him as the #10. I can wait on Chad and get a guy where the masses and I agree, or even better, another player that the masses have let slip below where I think they are ranked.
That's exactly how I like to use it...it tells me I can wait on certain guys, and often tells me, 'I ain't taking that guy there, so I ain't taking him.'The Draft Map to me is a visual representation of value and expected flow of the draft. I will run a few mocks before my draft, with my Map in hand, and be sure guys are still typically going in those areas.

Flexibility is still important, since there will be homers/sharks who diverge from ADP.

 
Nice post JoeT. Regarding #1 being flexible, not only it helps you get value later, but it makes it difficult for your leaguemates to predict what you're going to do next. If you draft RB,RB,RB in the 1st 3 rounds.....it's pretty clear that you're probably going WR in round 4. And your leaguemates can see that and they will snag WRs right before you.

Couple of others

1)Draft guys in later rounds with good upside. You want guys with good talent and potential. Ask youself, if things go right (or is given the opportunity), can this guy be a key fantasy contributor? If no, pass on him. Example - drafting a backup RB. If the starter goes down, does that backup RB become a fantasy starter? If no, no reason to draft him. You take backup RBs in hopes of hitting the jackpot or having a solid RB2 if the starter got hurt.

2) Try and draft guys in the middle rounds with easy opening schedules. Nothing is better than taking a backup in the middle rounds, they get off to a great start, and then you trade him in a package for a underperforming star. If you draft middle round players with easy opening schedules, you can get an opportunity to sell high.

 
butcher boy said:
6. Know your league and their drafting tendencies, and use this to your advantage.

7. Get the other people at your draft drunk.
# 6 is a good one.
I've always wondered about this one. I tend to get to know my leaguemates trading tendencies (i.e. they guy that just HAS to make a trade for the sake of it, and who offers the best, etc.), but even after years of being in the same league with people, I don't think any are predictable. Unfortunately in my redraft, I can't go back and see what people did, but I can tell you one guy (off the top of my head), took 3 WRs in the first thee rounds one year, took a QB, WR, RB the next year (not in that order) and took two WRs and a RB the next. Maybe there are guys that HAVE to have a RB in round 1 or 2, but beyond that, I always feel it is a crapshoot unless I identify a need for the drafter during said draft (i.e. 1 RB after 4 rounds, I know he is going to take at least 1 RB in the next two rounds). This is certainly helpful information (kinda like what Draft Dominator does), but it really doesn't align with what he/she did the previous years.
 
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Joe T said:
5. Do Not Use an "Average Draft Ranking" (compilation list) to Draft From

Tons of fantasy sites use player ranking compilations from various sources or staff members as a way to have an unbiased draft list. This is a terrible idea. Using an "average ranking" to draft from will only result in having an average draft.

Some staff members are better than others. Some site's ranking are better than others. If you want to win, find the best source, not the "average" source. I'm not here to tell you who is best, but there are places out there that will do that for you. Use those places to your advantage.
I would disagree here to a point. Yes, grabbing the rank lists from every site you can find would be a mistake. But if there are a couple experts you like overall, there's no harm in averaging those to help weed out any "love affair" effects from one player. For instance, Joe was very high on Garrard last year, so if you went with his list alone, you'd be much more likely to draft him. However, if you averaged his predictions with the other FBG experts, he fell to a much more reasonable position. Obviously this is only one anecdote, and there were certainly cases where Joe was right to be high on someone. But if you're not going to make predictions yourself, there's no harm in relying on two or three "experts" that you think have a good idea of what's going on, so go ahead and put them together. But I will agree that you shouldn't use a list that's based upon mock drafts, as it's the comparison between your ranking and when you can expect a player to be taken that really nets you the most value in a draft. (As a side note, pay attention to what sites your opponents rely on. About half my league goes with FBG, so my "ADP" list quite often is simply FBG's list.)

 
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follow the drafts of those who are drafting in the spots around you. If you're drafting out of the 10 spot in a 12 team league and the other two guys have starting QBs, you can wait until your pick coming back on the turn to get your QB and take the position player that otherwise wouldn't drop to you.

Also start runs on positions, don't finish them.

 
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After doing all those things simpliy ask yourself: I am drafting the better football player?
I strongly disagree. In fact, quite often throughout the average draft I find myself selecting a player well before more talented peers. Unless you really believe Cedric Benson is more talented than Tom Brady, Steve Smith (Car), Crabtree, Gates, etc. In which case, carry on.
 
1 more thing that I believe is monumental in drafting well: Do some mock drafts. There is nothing better than sitting in a mock draft room and asking yourself, why did that guy just pass on Dewayne Bowe for the 12th straight pick when no one is even near him on the board.

At that point, you figure out very quickly what is up in the world and you can do your research appropriately and make your own judgements. I just realized today that I'm nudging Gates' value up with VJax's suspension/hold out and I'm trying to decide where to revalue Floyd as the likely #1 WR.

Nothing beats a mock draft to fine tune "your" rankings.

 

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