I know the rule is to draft your defenses right before your kickers in the last few rounds, but i think this is a good year to reach for a defense earlier. The Jets are far and away better than the rest, that i wouldnt be afraid to take them not to far after i fill my lineup(i actually just did it in a league). Even if their advantage is 2 points a week, isnt that better than taking a guy like Jabar Gaffney or Tim Hightower, or any other player that will be hard pressed to ever see your starting lineup?
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Drafting a defense early (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Go deep
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VaTerp
Footballguy
I'm sure I'll be in the minority here but I think this is a good year to strongly consider drafting a D (Jets) early. IMO, it comes down to confidence in the options available at the pick. Nobody can predict the future, we know there will be surprises, and there is no guarantee the Jets D finishes high, let alone as the top D.
But I will likely be more confident that the Jets D will perform at a high level than I will be in most of the other options come the 7th/8th round. Then again, my main league has scoring that is more favorable to team Ds than most. League scoring, how the draft plays out, and the tendencies of other owners in your league are obviously HUGE factors here but for me, taking the Jets early will definitely be something I consider.
But I will likely be more confident that the Jets D will perform at a high level than I will be in most of the other options come the 7th/8th round. Then again, my main league has scoring that is more favorable to team Ds than most. League scoring, how the draft plays out, and the tendencies of other owners in your league are obviously HUGE factors here but for me, taking the Jets early will definitely be something I consider.
It certainly depends on your scoring system, but any league that awards for points for and against is a league where the Jets should be considered after the 8th/9th round. I am in one league where defenses score as much, if not more than QB's on a weekly basis, and i will consider the Jets in the 4th/5th round. I should point out it a 10 team league with 14 roster spots, and your limited on how many of each position you can take. Point is the same though, unless your league scores defenses low, ie. only scores for 2 for turnovers, 1 for sacks, 2 for safeties and 6 for TD's, then it probably doesnt matter, but anything more than that, Jets D will be far more valuable than your 5th WR.
I didnt like any of the top D's enough to take them that high last year. The Vikings were my #1 defense last year. ETA, i am all for playing matchups as well, but having the Jets as one of those teams is money.
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SSOG
Moderator
The 4th or 5th round? Wow, that's quite the commitment.In my mind, in order to be worthy of a high draft pick, a position must meet three criteria.Criteria #1- the position must be valuable. This one is pretty self evident. There's no point in spending a high draft pick on a position that will contribute very little value to your roster. If your league has a "head coach" position that gets you 1 point for a win and 0 points for a loss, then there's no blessed reason to ever take a head coach in your draft ever, period. They just aren't valuable. The difference between the 2007 Patriots and the 2008 Lions is just 16 points.Criteria #2- the position must be predictable. This one should also be self evident. How frequently does the player who ranks 1st in preseason ADP finish 1st in points? How often does he finish in the top 5? The top 10? How often do guys taken outside of the top 12 finish inside the top 6? How often do guys taken outside the top 24 finish inside the top 12? There's no sense spending a high draft pick on a position that has been historically unpredictable, because you're just as likely to get a stud with the first player off the board as you are with the 12th.Criteria #3- the position must be difficult to replace. If you don't spend a high pick on the position, then how easy will it be for you to acquire quality contributors during the season? How often are quality players available on waivers? How successful are by-committee approaches to the position?By my reckoning, defenses will sometimes meet criteria #1 (they are often valuable- depending on the scoring system, owning the #1 defense can frequently give a large advantage), but they almost always fail MISERABLY at point #2 and point #3. There's so much unpredictability from season to season that we never know for sure which units are the dominant ones until the season is half over. Few positions see so many players regarded as "bad" during the preseason wind up radically outperforming expectations during the season (witness Cincinnati, Denver, and New Orleans last year, just to name a few). Part of that is because defenses rely heavily on 11 moving parts, and all it takes is one of them getting injured (witness: Troy Polamalu) or playing out of his mind (witness: Darren Sharper) to radically alter the defense's fates. In addition, I don't think there's a single other position in fantasy football that is affected by matchups to a greater degree, which means that Defense-By-Committee approaches will frequently score as highly as getting a single stud defense. Plus, there's absolutely no positional scarcity (I have yet to hear of a start-2-defense league), which means impact performers (or bad defenses with fantastic matchups) are frequently available on the waiver wire. Just look at Arizona last year. They were a poor defense all season long, but around week 10 a lot of people started noticing that they played Detroit and St. Louis in weeks 15 and 16, so people quietly added them for the playoff run. Sure enough, in those two weeks the Cardinals totalled 6 sacks and 7 takeaways, giving up only 27 points (plus another 7 points given up by the offense on a 100 yard INT return). The Cardinals outperformed most of the "stud" defenses when it really mattered simply because they had the right matchups.Given all of that, I would never take a defense high. I'd much rather grab some sleepers with upside, constantly pan the wire, and play matchups to achieve the same result (if not better!) with a fraction of the resource investment.
TheWick
Footballguy
Under the scoring system you are drafting in the top 7 D's were seperated by 25 total points and 3 of those defenses went undrafted in last years Beta league.
There is never ever ever a reason in these scoring systems to draft a D as early as you did. You could have had a much better WR4 in that spot.
just my opinion
There is never ever ever a reason in these scoring systems to draft a D as early as you did. You could have had a much better WR4 in that spot.
just my opinion
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
Even if Defenses score more than QB's in your league, the best strategy is still probably to draft a D late after the rest of your roster is filled out other than K. Defense is the only position where the waiver wire will probably offer a better option than your starter about 50% of the time, especially if you are in a 10 teamer with only 14 roster spots. That said, the schedule for the Jets D looks like a pretty good option to set it and forget it in your lineup for the entire season if you don't have space for a backup D on a weekly basis.Go deep said:
I agree with all 3 of your points. That is exactly why i, and everyone else has always waited until the last few round to select a defense. It is my position that the Jets are that much better and more predictable this year than any denese has been since the early 2000 Ravens. Which is why i would take them in the 9th/10th round depending on who is available.
As afar as taking one on the 4th/5th, like i said, thats an unique situation. In a 10 team we have 14 player rosters and you have to have 2QB's, 3RB's, 4WR's 1 Flex, 2 K's and 2 D's on your roster(non TE required). The scoring is complex, but the scoring is basically double of standard scoring(a 16 point game for a WR would be 32 here). A good defensive game can get you 100 points, a bad one can put you in the red.
Anyway, this is the first year i have really felt this strongly about a defense. I still will play matchups, but who would you rather have going against the Rams, the Jets or the Cardinals?
Will the Jets end up as a top 5 defense? I think the chances are better that it happens than the WR you take a flier on in round 10 puts up a good game for you in a game you start him.
As afar as taking one on the 4th/5th, like i said, thats an unique situation. In a 10 team we have 14 player rosters and you have to have 2QB's, 3RB's, 4WR's 1 Flex, 2 K's and 2 D's on your roster(non TE required). The scoring is complex, but the scoring is basically double of standard scoring(a 16 point game for a WR would be 32 here). A good defensive game can get you 100 points, a bad one can put you in the red.
Anyway, this is the first year i have really felt this strongly about a defense. I still will play matchups, but who would you rather have going against the Rams, the Jets or the Cardinals?
Will the Jets end up as a top 5 defense? I think the chances are better that it happens than the WR you take a flier on in round 10 puts up a good game for you in a game you start him.
You wil notice that i said i think it is a good idea this year because of the Jets. I wouldnt have done it last year, because i didnt think any defense stood out enough to do so.
I wanted to take a WR, but i had about 12-15 WR's all ranked within 5 points of each other. I had the Jets defense outscoring the next highest by 20+. As a matter of fact, only two of the 15 WR's i had ranked that close went between my Jets pick and my next pick. I ended getting the one i would have taken anyway two rounds later. Plus, who needs a 4th WR when you have Desean, Rice and AJ.
As you can see in my post below yours, every team has to have two defenses on their roster at all time. Plus there are always good options at RB and WR because each team can ony carry 8 total, including TE's. Plus the like i said, the scoring for defenses is crazy.
im thinking much the same thing this year. in my league the top 5 defenses are worth more than any wr or te and as much as rb4-5. ive always taken D late and its worked out well but depending on scoring and how your draft is shaping up it can make sense to go early. our draft is 17 rounds but due to a ton of trading, all my picks are frontloaded and my draft ends in the 12th. now i can rationalize taking the jets in the 8th and calling it my "13th round pick"!. the downside is i actually enjoy playing the matchups more but the set it and forget appeal is very strong this year for the jets.
Im not even suggesting just drafting the Jets. If you like playing matchups, and have a favorite "sleeper" d or two, go ahead and play mtchups. Like i said, its better playing matchups with the Jets and Patriots than the Chargers and Patriots.
very true. the picks lined up this year so that i could take jets/eagles most likely but that would be more a headache than anything else. going early on d, something ive never done before, is very dependent on league variables.
What is stopping you from playing Matchups with the Jets? Also, what makes WR's any different than defenses? You can pan the waiver wire for WR's too, plus how big of a difference is there between the sleeper WR you can get in the 10th and the 15th? If there is one WR you like in particular in the 10th round, i agree that you should take him over a defense, but if you have a bunch of WR's in the same group, why not take a D and wait a couple rounds to take your WR? Also, if you did take the Jets and didnt want to play matchups, thats leaves you one extra draft pick/roster spot to take another sleeper WR. Whats better, 1 sleeper WR with a 30% chance of being good, or 2 WR's each with a 20% chance?SSOG said:
Of course, i am not just going to just blindly take the Jets D in the 9th round. Alot of things need to line up for me to do it, but i think this is the year to consider it.
SSOG
Moderator
The fact that you invested such heavy resources into them. I don't know about you, but I'm not going to spend a 4th or 5th round pick on a player who I'm only anticipating starting 50-66% of the time, anyway.
Moonlight
Footballguy
Depends on a # of things: but mostly how much your league emphasizes defensive scoring and hitting on the right defenses. In a league I'm in that emphasizes defensive scoring the Eagles and Packers were in the top 20 for total fantasy points scored. The team with the Eagles was carried by them to the league championship. In other leagues the top defense barely got into the top 75.
Hitting on the top defenses each year is not an easy task but certain teams that employ pressure defense such as the Eagles are more consistent in usually producing more points.
Hitting on the top defenses each year is not an easy task but certain teams that employ pressure defense such as the Eagles are more consistent in usually producing more points.
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
Don't overthink it guys. Take a defense when about 5 defenses have been picked and take what looks like the best one to you then forget about it. Usually the top 1 or 2 defenses go a round or two earlier than some of the others and then there's a run. Just be in the middle of that intial run to get a top tier defense and you have as good of a chance as anyone to have the top defense in the league.There's very little chance that the Jets D will hold up to their ADP this year, regardless of how good you think they will be heading into the season. Watch about 5 D's go off the board and make a pick, gobble up another WR or RB, take a strong QB2, resist the temptation to reach for a D.smackdaddies
Footballguy
depends on scoring system and league size. I once played in a 20 team league were D's had silly high scoring rules - so you needed to draft one before the run started.
But that is the oddity - in a 12 team league - I would still draft at the end and then pay attention when the season starts - ususally a top 5 d ends up not drafted and you can pick them up.
But that is the oddity - in a 12 team league - I would still draft at the end and then pay attention when the season starts - ususally a top 5 d ends up not drafted and you can pick them up.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Just because the Jets may have a top NFL defense doesn't necessarily mean that they will have a great fantasy defense (obviously a lot depends on the scoring system). Without Leon Washington their kick return team is not as deadly and the defensive unit (despite Ryan's heavy blitzing) didn't record that many sacks and wasn't necessarily a high turnover unit.It's not a terrible mistake - I just think its hard to predict which defenses will end up being top fantasy defenses.Go deep said:
AngryGorilla
Footballguy
I haven't drafted a defense the last two years, in my money leagues. Last year, I ranked 4th overall in defense/ST scoring, year before: sixth... the difference is so marginal, I'd rather take that late WR flier and wait and see during the week or two of the preseason what the news is... then play matchups all the way, or a hot DEF/ST is just sitting on the waiver wire - FWIW
Mr. Bojangles
Footballguy
I hope guys in my league follow this strategey.
Sir Psycho
Footballguy
Everything depend on your scoring.
This is our def scoring:
-0.5pt for all defensive points allowed
2pts for sacks
2pts for interceptions
2pts for fumbles recovered
2pts for a safety
2pts for a blocked extra point
3 pts for a blocked punt
4pts for a blocked FG
6 points for a Def or Special team TD
30 pts if total yards allowed by def is less than 100.
20 pts if total yards allowed by def is between 100 and 149 inclusively
15 pts if total yards allowed by def is between 150 and 199 inclusively
10 pts if total yards allowed by def is between 200 and 249 inclusively
5 pts if total yards allowed by def is between 250 and 299 inclusively
0 pts if total yards allowed by def is between 300 and 350 inclusively
-5 pts if total yards allowed by def is between 351 and 400 inclusively
-10 pts if total yards allowed by def is between 401 and 450 inclusively
-15 pts if total yards allowed by def is between 451 and 500 inclusively
-20 pts if total yards allowed by def is between 501 and 550 inclusively
-30 pts if total yards allowed by def is more than 550
Here is last year final ranking:
1.Jets, 191.5
2.Packers, Green Bay GBP Def 115.5
3.Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def 72.5
4.Vikings, Minnesota MIN Def 60.5
5.Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def 58.0
6.49ers, San Francisco SFO Def 55.5
7.Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def 54.0
8.Eagles, Philadelphia PHI Def 43
9.Bengals, Cincinnati CIN Def 42.5
10.Panthers, Carolina CAR Def 41.0
11.Broncos, Denver DEN Def 34.5
12.Patriots, New England NEP Def 12
13. Chargers, San Diego SDC Def -3.
14. Saints, New Orleans NOS Def -6.
15. Texans, Houston HOU Def -8.0
16. Cardinals, Arizona ARI Def -17.
17. Bills, Buffalo BUF Def -23.0
18. Colts, Indianapolis IND Def -28
19. Redskins, Washington WAS Def -3
20. Bears, Chicago CHI Def -49.5
21. Falcons, Atlanta ATL Def -51.0
22. Giants, New York NYG Def -52.5
23. Dolphins, Miami MIA Def -83.0
24. Buccaneers, Tampa Bay TBB Def -
25. Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def -114.
26. Titans, Tennessee TEN Def -118.
27. Raiders, Oakland OAK Def -121.0
28. Browns, Cleveland CLE Def -122.
29. Jaguars, Jacksonville JAC Def -
30. Rams, St. Louis STL Def -163.0
There's a big difference between 1 and 10.
Last year I drafted the first def (Pittsburg) in the 3th round and I finish 2.
So I know its very hard to predict top defense every year but in my league you'll have to draft a def early or it will hurt you.
This is our def scoring:
-0.5pt for all defensive points allowed
2pts for sacks
2pts for interceptions
2pts for fumbles recovered
2pts for a safety
2pts for a blocked extra point
3 pts for a blocked punt
4pts for a blocked FG
6 points for a Def or Special team TD
30 pts if total yards allowed by def is less than 100.
20 pts if total yards allowed by def is between 100 and 149 inclusively
15 pts if total yards allowed by def is between 150 and 199 inclusively
10 pts if total yards allowed by def is between 200 and 249 inclusively
5 pts if total yards allowed by def is between 250 and 299 inclusively
0 pts if total yards allowed by def is between 300 and 350 inclusively
-5 pts if total yards allowed by def is between 351 and 400 inclusively
-10 pts if total yards allowed by def is between 401 and 450 inclusively
-15 pts if total yards allowed by def is between 451 and 500 inclusively
-20 pts if total yards allowed by def is between 501 and 550 inclusively
-30 pts if total yards allowed by def is more than 550
Here is last year final ranking:
1.Jets, 191.5
2.Packers, Green Bay GBP Def 115.5
3.Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def 72.5
4.Vikings, Minnesota MIN Def 60.5
5.Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def 58.0
6.49ers, San Francisco SFO Def 55.5
7.Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def 54.0
8.Eagles, Philadelphia PHI Def 43
9.Bengals, Cincinnati CIN Def 42.5
10.Panthers, Carolina CAR Def 41.0
11.Broncos, Denver DEN Def 34.5
12.Patriots, New England NEP Def 12
13. Chargers, San Diego SDC Def -3.
14. Saints, New Orleans NOS Def -6.
15. Texans, Houston HOU Def -8.0
16. Cardinals, Arizona ARI Def -17.
17. Bills, Buffalo BUF Def -23.0
18. Colts, Indianapolis IND Def -28
19. Redskins, Washington WAS Def -3
20. Bears, Chicago CHI Def -49.5
21. Falcons, Atlanta ATL Def -51.0
22. Giants, New York NYG Def -52.5
23. Dolphins, Miami MIA Def -83.0
24. Buccaneers, Tampa Bay TBB Def -
25. Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def -114.
26. Titans, Tennessee TEN Def -118.
27. Raiders, Oakland OAK Def -121.0
28. Browns, Cleveland CLE Def -122.
29. Jaguars, Jacksonville JAC Def -
30. Rams, St. Louis STL Def -163.0
There's a big difference between 1 and 10.
Last year I drafted the first def (Pittsburg) in the 3th round and I finish 2.
So I know its very hard to predict top defense every year but in my league you'll have to draft a def early or it will hurt you.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
The Jets weren't the top defense in any of my league last season. Why would you try to predict that they will be tops this season, let alone the tops by a good margin?
So you will take Derrick Mason over Calvin Johnson and Thomas Jones over Chris Wells in drafts this year, Mason and Jones did outscore CJ and Wells last season?
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Nice try, I never said to take the Jets in the 4th/5th round. i have no idea why you do that, but anyway.Im am only suggesting taking the Jets in the 9th/10th round or later. That is only if another player at another position is seperating himself from the rest of that position. If your 10th round pick is up and you have 5/6 QB's ranked similarly, no RB's that you would consider there and about 10-12 WR's that you like the same. Why not take the best available defense? Why not take the Jets there, and if you like, take another defense later in the draft and play matchups. Like i said before, playing matchups with the Jets is better than playing matchups without the Jets.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
WTF are you talking about?You asked why would i try to predict the Jets would be the top defense this year since they were not the best last year? My point is why would you try to predict ANY player will be better this year than last year? Thomas Jones outscored Chris Wells last year, why would you take Wells over Jones?Going strictly off of last years stats to determine this years stats is not a good idea, unless your league uses last year stats of course.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
The Jets are somehow available in my dynasty draft. I'm thinking of snagging them to actually pair with Green Bay.GB will outscore the Jets anyway in most leagues so most points in this thread are moot.
mjm3773
Footballguy
I agree with you on criteria 1, semi-agree on criteria 2, and disagree on crieria 3.With respect to criteria 2, yes, defenses are often unpredictible. But so are other positions, most notably RB. Numerous people have pointed out that from year to year nearly 50% of the top 10 RB's turn over, but that doesn't stop RB's from being the most selected position in the 1st round, usually. (Note, I do believe that defenses, other than kickers, are the most unpredictible, but that doesn't mean that some defense, such as the Jets, aren't any more risky as some of the picks made in the 5th round - e.g. Dwayne Bowe, Felix Jones, Brandon Jacobs)My disagreement with criteria 3, like most of these issues, depends upon league specifics. I understand that in most leagues out there, most teams only carry 1 defense, so that there is plenty out on the waiver wire, and from criteria 1, in most leagues the values between the defenses is not that large. However, in the 12 team, 3 keeper league I have been in for 15 years, most teams carry 2 or 3 defenses as a committee (even the ones that have the top defense in the league). At the end of last year, the only defenses on the waiver wire were KC, Det and StL, each of whom scored over 100 points less than the #12 (VBD baseline) defense. Defensive scarcity can become vary important because, unlike if a position player is injured or what not, there are plenty of available players to replace him. With defenses, there are only 32 options. If everybody has 2, with some having 3, position scarcity drives up the value of the defenses past the point of their unpredictablilty.Again, and it can't be stressed enough, most, if not all of this depends upon your league's size, scoring system and the roster tendencies of your leaguemates. It's not an open-or shut case one way or another that can be covered by blanket statements like "Never draft a defense until the next to last round."SSOG said:
SSOG
Moderator
I never said "never draft a defense until the next-to-last round". I said "never spend a high draft pick on a player unless he scores above an acceptable threshold on these three criteria". As I said, defenses almost always fail miserably at criteria 2 and criteria 3. Implicit in that is that they do not always fail miserably at criteria 2 and criteria 3. If your league settings are such that a defense meets those requirements, then by all means draft one early. That would have to be one hell of a crazy league, though.Even if a defense hits criteria #3, I have yet to see a scoring system that makes defenses all that predictable, which means I'd still pass on drafting a defense early. Once they started flying off the board I'd absolutely jump in and grab some lottery tickets while I could, but I wouldn't spend a premium pick on a position where the premium picks generally fare little better than the dregs.mjm3773 said:
You dont see the difference there? I said in a league that i am in i would consider the Jets in the 4th or 5th. Thats an extreme situation based on roster/lineup requirements and scoring. You make it sound like i am telling people to take them there in their draft. Im sure you already knew that, im done discussing it. Dont bother repying, you just made my ignore list.I never said "never draft a defense until the next-to-last round". I said "never spend a high draft pick on a player unless he scores above an acceptable threshold on these three criteria". As I said, defenses almost always fail miserably at criteria 2 and criteria 3. Implicit in that is that they do not always fail miserably at criteria 2 and criteria 3. If your league settings are such that a defense meets those requirements, then by all means draft one early. That would have to be one hell of a crazy league, though.Even if a defense hits criteria #3, I have yet to see a scoring system that makes defenses all that predictable, which means I'd still pass on drafting a defense early. Once they started flying off the board I'd absolutely jump in and grab some lottery tickets while I could, but I wouldn't spend a premium pick on a position where the premium picks generally fare little better than the dregs.mjm3773 said:
SSOG
Moderator
Re-read this thread. These are direct quotes from the exact series of posts that led to you putting me on your ignore list.Go Deep: "I am in one league where defenses score as much, if not more than QB's on a weekly basis, and i will consider the Jets in the 4th/5th round."SSoG: "The 4th or 5th round? Wow, that's quite the commitment... (insert long strategy discussion here)... Given all of that, I would never take a defense high. I'd much rather grab some sleepers with upside, constantly pan the wire, and play matchups to achieve the same result."Go Deep: "What is stopping you from playing Matchups with the Jets?"SSoG: "The fact that you invested such heavy resources into them. I don't know about you, but I'm not going to spend a 4th or 5th round pick on a player who I'm only anticipating starting 50-66% of the time, anyway."Go Deep: "Nice try, I never said to take the Jets in the 4th/5th round. i have no idea why you do that, but anyway."SSoG: "(posts a quote where Go Deep said he'd take the Jets in the 4th/5th round)".Go Deep: "Dont bother repying, you just made my ignore list."I never made it seem like you were telling people to take the Jets in the 4th. You said that you were taking the Jets in the 4th, and I was simply discussing why that was a bad idea. If you want to ignore me, be my guest, but I never tried to make it look like you were doing anything, I simply discussed a strategy that you said you were considering in a thread that you created to spawn discussion on the topic of the strategy that you said you were considering.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Draft DEF after you have the rest of your roster (minus kicker) in place IMO.
That is how I always do it & always end up with good defenses. I ended up w/the Jets last season.
That is how I always do it & always end up with good defenses. I ended up w/the Jets last season.
This is how i usually do it, and usually end up with a good defense(s) too, i just think this year might be an exception if you can get the Jets. I remember guys taking the Ravens high(early teens) back in the early 2000's in my drafts, and consistently having an advantage every week. Im not suggesting the Jets are the 2000 Ravens, but i think they have a chance to put up Raven like numbers this year. I think they only scratched the surface last year, and are ready to blow up in 2010. Even if they are only a slightly better option than a defense you can get in the 18th round, isnt that better than a flier on a WR that would probably be around the next round and would likely never see you starting lineup anyway? One more time, im not suggesting doing whatever it takes to get the Jets defense, but i do think there is a time to consider them earlier than you normally would with a defense.Magic_Man said:Draft DEF after you have the rest of your roster (minus kicker) in place IMO.That is how I always do it & always end up with good defenses. I ended up w/the Jets last season.
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HenryMuto
Footballguy
The last time I took a DF early was in 2007 I took the Balt DF in the 7th round, I was debating Balt DF vs Winslow at the time.
I picked the Balt DF because they had scored 273 pts in 2006 and were worth more than 50+ pts over the 2nd DF and 100+ pts over the 3rd DF.
So I take Balt DF then Winslow went before my 8th round pick so I took Shockey.
End result I lost my title game by less than 1/2 point (.45) and I didn't even start Baltimore in my playoff games because they tanked the regular season.
They suffered a few injuries and dropped all the way down from 273 to 120 pts that year and were unstartable the 2nd half the season.
Winslow scored about 240 pts compared to Shockey's 150 and Shockey got me an amazing 2 pts in my combined Championship game over 2 weeks 15+16.
Moral of the story NEVER draft a defense this early because it is lunacy and sometimes ends up wrecking your entire team.
I picked the Balt DF because they had scored 273 pts in 2006 and were worth more than 50+ pts over the 2nd DF and 100+ pts over the 3rd DF.
So I take Balt DF then Winslow went before my 8th round pick so I took Shockey.
End result I lost my title game by less than 1/2 point (.45) and I didn't even start Baltimore in my playoff games because they tanked the regular season.
They suffered a few injuries and dropped all the way down from 273 to 120 pts that year and were unstartable the 2nd half the season.
Winslow scored about 240 pts compared to Shockey's 150 and Shockey got me an amazing 2 pts in my combined Championship game over 2 weeks 15+16.
Moral of the story NEVER draft a defense this early because it is lunacy and sometimes ends up wrecking your entire team.
by_the_sea_wannabe
:sj:
I believe the moral of this story should be "don't chase points". Drafting the Ravens early in 2006 looks like it would have worked out ok.
Drafting a D early is idiotic. It almost never works out. For all of you moronic Jets pimpers, tell me this...who is running all the special teams tds back for them? The best Ds always have lots of punt and kick return tds. I can save you all alot of hassel and tell you right now that there is no way to predict what team will have the flavor du jour for scoring tons of tds on special teams.
For the person who is considering the Jets in the 4 - 5 th round...wtf? That must be some sort of joke right?
For the person who is considering the Jets in the 4 - 5 th round...wtf? That must be some sort of joke right?
People need to realize and continue to be aware that the value of defenses will vary on scoring and size. I very hard to make them relevant in leagues I run (with mixed success).
In some leagues it makes sense to draft one early. Not 4th or 5th round early, but still.
However, in most 12 man leagues there is enough "supply" relative to the "demand" to make even a 9th or 10th round pick a poor investment.
With that said, in a D-heavy league, after you have taken starters and a backup for QB, every starting RB, and the majoprity of WRs and TEs, if the Jets are on the board, taking them is fine. So in a 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE league I am saying the 12th or 13th.
In some leagues it makes sense to draft one early. Not 4th or 5th round early, but still.
However, in most 12 man leagues there is enough "supply" relative to the "demand" to make even a 9th or 10th round pick a poor investment.
With that said, in a D-heavy league, after you have taken starters and a backup for QB, every starting RB, and the majoprity of WRs and TEs, if the Jets are on the board, taking them is fine. So in a 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE league I am saying the 12th or 13th.
VaTerp
Footballguy
I still think that drafting a D early should be considered IF your league scoring allows defenses to be significant factors and IF you are confident there is a D that you value above the pack.
That said after really digging into my prep work, looking at the schedules, and doing some mocks I am not confident that the Jets D sticks out from the pack in FF terms. I have been taking Dallas as the 9th or 10th D off the board in a lot of my mocks and feel that is a much better value than taking the Jets a full round or 2 before any other Ds come off the board.
That said after really digging into my prep work, looking at the schedules, and doing some mocks I am not confident that the Jets D sticks out from the pack in FF terms. I have been taking Dallas as the 9th or 10th D off the board in a lot of my mocks and feel that is a much better value than taking the Jets a full round or 2 before any other Ds come off the board.
I didnt realize that you lost your league in 2007 because you took a D ahead of Winslow, i change my mind then.
Seriously though, what would have happened had you took Winslow over the Ravens in 2008?What about a 10 team league that starts 1 RB and 2 WR(no TE)1 Flex. The roster requirements are 2 QB's, 3 RB's, 3WR's, 2 K's, 2 D's.
The top D scored 150 points more than the 12th D(and more points than Chris Johnson), the top WR scored less than 100 points than the 24th WR.
You projected the Jets to be far better than the next highest defense in 2010.
Yardage and points weigh far more heavily than normal.(Even if a D doent have a sack, turnover or TD, but only allow 3 points and 240 yards will score as high as the top 5 WR's in any given week.)
Not to mention a D that allows alot of yards and points can loss you enough points to negate a good WR game.
The Real Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
Why would anyone even play in a league like that anyway?
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