RB: Adrian Peterson, DeAngelo Williams, Michael Bush, Clinton Portis, Bernard Scott, Mike Bell
WR: Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason, Devin Hester, Mike Thomas, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Kevin Walter
TE: Brent Celek, Tony Scheffler, Kevin Boss
PK: Nick Folk, Jason Hanson
TD: New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans
Overview:
Old school!
We like your overall strength at the traditionally less important positions, but make no mistake about it: this team is about strength at the running back position. And we think it will be the league favorite or very close to it. Somewhere Marshall Faulk is smiling.
Nonetheless, we'd be remiss if we didn't at least mention the relative lack of strength at quarterback and receiver. These are usually survivable weaknesses, but we'd feel better if we knew you were committed to zealously scouring the waiver wire for this year's emergent players at QB and WR. Getting a breakout player at one or both of those positions would take your already-good team to the next level.
Players we particularly like on this team include Mike Thomas, Devin Hester, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Donovan McNabb, DeAngelo Williams, Bernard Scott, and Nick Folk. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:
* With great inseason management, we think you have about a 80 percent chance of making the playoffs.
* With good inseason management, we think you have about a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs.
* With average inseason management, we think you have a 55 percent chance of making the playoffs.
In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 17 of 2008:
Michael Bush vs. TB: 183 combined yards, 2 TD
DeAngelo Williams vs. NO: 178 combined yards
Jason Campbell vs. SF: 156 passing yards, 2 TD
Donovan McNabb vs. DAL: 175 passing yards, 3 TD
Adrian Peterson vs. NYG: 103 combined yards, 1 TD
QB Summary:
We have Matt Ryan rated #9 among quarterbacks, which makes him a less-than-stellar starter in this league. But we like the selection of our #12-rated QB, Donovan McNabb, to go with him. Hopefully between the two of them, you should be able to cobble together some good production at the position, but this strategy always carries with it the downside that you'll drive yourself crazy trying to decide who to start from week to week.
Incidentally, these two have a pretty nice combined schedule and a decent playoff schedule too. If you simply played the one with the better matchup each week, this is the schedule you'd face:
DAL | ARI | STL | SF | CLE | PHI | CIN | DET | TB | PHI | STL | GB | NYG | CAR | SEA | NO
Jason Campbell is an excellent depth pick, though you may not end up using him much.
RB Summary:
Nice work here. We like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 4.3 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Adrian Peterson ranked fourth and DeAngelo Williams ranked seventh.
Your bench also looks good. We see Michael Bush as an average third running back; he's a likely flex starter. Clinton Portis is an excellent RB4. Bernard Scott should serve as a very solid fifth running back. Likewise, Mike Bell should be excellent at RB6.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some members of our staff have Michael Bush ranked as high as 28th, which would make him an above average third running back. Jason Wood defends his high ranking as follows: "The Raiders cleaned house this offseason and are left with Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. Rather than add a rookie or two, the Silver & Black are resolved to build a run-first offense around these two. Given my doubts about McFadden's abilities as a between-the-tackles runner, it sets up for a chance to have Bush explode with a monster season, for a fraction of the cost."
WR Summary:
We see all your starters at receiver as below average. Michael Crabtree is our 22nd ranked WR, Anquan Boldin is #24, and we have Derrick Mason 32nd.
Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. Tough to do better than Devin Hester at WR4 --- also probably a frequent flex contributor. Mike Thomas will also be among the best WR5s in the league. Darrius Heyward-Bey should serve as a very solid sixth receiver.
Kevin Walter is a solid depth pick.
A quick note about the same-team Boldin/Derrick Mason and Mason/Anquan Boldin duos you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more (not less) consistent than a comparable-scoring different-team pair. See this article (which was written before the 2008 season) for more discussion.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Michael Crabtree as high as #9, which would make him a fine first receiver. Clayton Gray's take: "Everyone remembers that Michael Crabtree missed the first six weeks of last season with his holdout. What most have forgotten is that he wasn't able to practice last offseason due to his foot injury. Yet he still caught 48 balls for 625 yards simply on talent. This year, with a full offseason to practice and actually learn the playbook, Crabtree will remind everyone why he held out in 2009."
Some members of our staff have Anquan Boldin ranked as high as seventh, which would make him a great second receiver and even a legitimate WR1. Mark Wimer defends his high ranking as follows: "Boldin finds himself in an outstanding situation, with a solid possession receiver across from him in Derrick Mason and a skilled pass-catcher out of the backfield in Ray Rice. This will keep opposing teams from blanketing Boldin with coverage. Joe Flacco has a big arm, which should mean lots of big-play opportunities for Boldin. Reports out of the Ravens' OTAs indicate that Flacco is playing with great confidence and poise this season, and that he is taking on the leadership mantle in new ways. A confident, poised Flacco should mean high-quality fantasy numbers for Boldin as Flacco's top wide receiver. Recent injury woes for Derrick Mason (first week of August) further cements Boldin's status as WR #1 on this squad."
Some of our staffers have Derrick Mason as high as #16, which would make him a great third receiver and even a legitimate WR2. Mark Wimer's take: "Mason's problems with minor injuries during the beginning of training camp are raising a red flag for me. If he continues to have nagging issues, he'll drop even further down my board. "
TE Summary:
We have Brent Celek ranked #7 at the position. So while he's passable as a first tight end, he doesn't look particularly thrilling. But we do like your depth at TE, so we're not concerned about it.
Tony Scheffler should be a good second tight end. Kevin Boss should also be solidly above average at TE3.
Kicker Summary:
Nick Folk, our seventh ranked kicker, won't win the league for you, but he'll do.
Defense Summary:
First we'd like to suggest that there are very, very few leagues in which it makes sense to roster more than two defenses. And your's isn't one of them.
When you don't have an elite defense, one option is a committee approach. That is, try to get two cheap defenses whose schedules fit well together. Here are a few teams who we think may be available and whose schedules fit best with the Giants', along with the combined schedule that each would create:
Giants + Cardinals = STL | ATL | OAK | CHI | HOU | DET | SEA | TB | SEA | SEA | KC | SF | STL | DEN | CAR | GB
Giants + Bengals = CAR | BAL | TEN | CLE | TB | DET | ATL | MIA | SEA | DAL | BUF | NYJ | WAS | PIT | CLE | SD
Giants + Dolphins = BUF | MIN | NYJ | CHI | HOU | DET | PIT | CIN | SEA | TEN | CHI | OAK | CLE | NYJ | BUF | DET
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