What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Projecting Favre post Rice's surgery (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
As I look over my projections for Favre and the Vikings passing offense, the loss of Rice for what amounts to the majority of the season really can have a trickle down effect when you consider how much Rice's vertical presence helped things. Rice averaged 15.8 yards per catch, and Percy Harvin was second on the team with 13.2 yards per catch. Now Berrian, if healthy, should help because last year's 11.2 YPR wasn't indicative of his career marks when 100%. But still, it's going to be hard for Favre to match (or come close to for that matter) last year's 7.9 yards per attempt (or 8.6 AY/A).

The smart thing would be for Minnesota to heed Favre's mantra from last week and recommit to the ground game. But Favre is still going to have to find a home for 300-340 completions in a full season. I would be happy to call a breakout for Harvin but those migraines give me pause. How big a bump can we really project Berrian? Is anyone comfortable drafting Berrian with the assumption that he'll net 70-80 receptions? I'm not. Shiancoe seems an obvious fit to see even more targets, but he too isn't going to help offset the loss of Rice's per catch yardage.

 
I wasn't that hiogh on Favre in the first place. I had him ranked 18th. Rice being out and Harvin having issues won't help any.

 
David Yudkin said:
I wasn't that hiogh on Favre in the first place. I had him ranked 18th. Rice being out and Harvin having issues won't help any.
Click to expand...
Favre has never finished worse than 14th including the year he had a bum labrum and played in a new offense in New York. 18th was too low (IMHO) with or without any particular weapon.
 
Favre's ankle has me worried. He's in his 40's and if ADP can't pick up blitzes, Favre will get killed this year.

I think he's a guy that you trade after an elite performance, because I just don't see him lasting the whole season.

If he does stay healthy, there's no way he's not a top 10 QB, he's just too good. Harvin, Berrian, Shiancoe, Peterson..he'll throw the ball around. And I'm sure the Vikings will find more veteran talent after cuts are done.

If he stays healthy, I still say top 10-12, but the staying healthy is the hardest part.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Jason Wood said:
David Yudkin said:
I wasn't that hiogh on Favre in the first place. I had him ranked 18th. Rice being out and Harvin having issues won't help any.
Click to expand...
Favre has never finished worse than 14th including the year he had a bum labrum and played in a new offense in New York. 18th was too low (IMHO) with or without any particular weapon.
Click to expand...
:D Projecting Favre 18th is almost conceding an injury for a few games. Since he's never missed a start, I'll take my chances on a Top 12 finish, especially since teams still stack the box to stop AP
 
Jason Wood said:
David Yudkin said:
I wasn't that hiogh on Favre in the first place. I had him ranked 18th. Rice being out and Harvin having issues won't help any.
Click to expand...
Favre has never finished worse than 14th including the year he had a bum labrum and played in a new offense in New York. 18th was too low (IMHO) with or without any particular weapon.
Click to expand...
I don't think predicting some sort of injury to a 40+ year old QB is really going out on a limb (whether he misses game time or not). One helmet to his passing hand and thinks could change pretty quickly.There have been two 41 year old QBs to hit 200 fantasy points in a season. Moon (277) and Testaverde (234). Last year, 277 points would have ranked as the #17 QB.We shall see . . .
 
David Yudkin said:
Jason Wood said:
David Yudkin said:
I wasn't that hiogh on Favre in the first place. I had him ranked 18th. Rice being out and Harvin having issues won't help any.
Click to expand...
Favre has never finished worse than 14th including the year he had a bum labrum and played in a new offense in New York. 18th was too low (IMHO) with or without any particular weapon.
Click to expand...
I don't think predicting some sort of injury to a 40+ year old QB is really going out on a limb (whether he misses game time or not). One helmet to his passing hand and thinks could change pretty quickly.There have been two 41 year old QBs to hit 200 fantasy points in a season. Moon (277) and Testaverde (234). Last year, 277 points would have ranked as the #17 QB.

We shall see . . .
Click to expand...
When you're talking about such little sample size, playing the "use the Data Dominator to see comparables" game has to go out the window. History argued against Favre doing what he did as a 37-year old, a 38-year old, a 39-year old and a 40-year old. Yet he did it.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/h...c&display=p

 
David Yudkin said:
Jason Wood said:
David Yudkin said:
I wasn't that hiogh on Favre in the first place. I had him ranked 18th. Rice being out and Harvin having issues won't help any.
Click to expand...
Favre has never finished worse than 14th including the year he had a bum labrum and played in a new offense in New York. 18th was too low (IMHO) with or without any particular weapon.
Click to expand...
I don't think predicting some sort of injury to a 40+ year old QB is really going out on a limb (whether he misses game time or not). One helmet to his passing hand and thinks could change pretty quickly.There have been two 41 year old QBs to hit 200 fantasy points in a season. Moon (277) and Testaverde (234). Last year, 277 points would have ranked as the #17 QB.We shall see . . .
Click to expand...
Did you just compare Warren Moon's 1997 season with QB statistics from 2009 as a comparitive potential ranking?
 
Jason Wood said:
David Yudkin said:
Jason Wood said:
David Yudkin said:
I wasn't that hiogh on Favre in the first place. I had him ranked 18th. Rice being out and Harvin having issues won't help any.
Click to expand...
Favre has never finished worse than 14th including the year he had a bum labrum and played in a new offense in New York. 18th was too low (IMHO) with or without any particular weapon.
Click to expand...
I don't think predicting some sort of injury to a 40+ year old QB is really going out on a limb (whether he misses game time or not). One helmet to his passing hand and thinks could change pretty quickly.There have been two 41 year old QBs to hit 200 fantasy points in a season. Moon (277) and Testaverde (234). Last year, 277 points would have ranked as the #17 QB.

We shall see . . .
Click to expand...
When you're talking about such little sample size, playing the "use the Data Dominator to see comparables" game has to go out the window. History argued against Favre doing what he did as a 37-year old, a 38-year old, a 39-year old and a 40-year old. Yet he did it.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/h...c&display=p
Click to expand...
So at what point does the cycle stop? Would Favre continue on at 45? 50? 60?Even if Favre WERE NOT 41 years old, the likelihood of him having another season like last year are slim. Guys don't repeat 33 TD and 7 INT seasons very often, let alone back to back.

If Favre put up numbers like he did in New York (getting him 250 fantasy points), that might not net him a top 15 ranking anymore. Last year, that would have ranked 19th.

I don't think it's unreasonable to think that he will slow down, he could return to forcing the ball when he shouldn't, and with even a minor injury his numbers could be very different this year.

Just my opinion, others will differ.

 
David Yudkin said:
Jason Wood said:
David Yudkin said:
Jason Wood said:
David Yudkin said:
I wasn't that hiogh on Favre in the first place. I had him ranked 18th. Rice being out and Harvin having issues won't help any.
Click to expand...
Favre has never finished worse than 14th including the year he had a bum labrum and played in a new offense in New York. 18th was too low (IMHO) with or without any particular weapon.
Click to expand...
I don't think predicting some sort of injury to a 40+ year old QB is really going out on a limb (whether he misses game time or not). One helmet to his passing hand and thinks could change pretty quickly.There have been two 41 year old QBs to hit 200 fantasy points in a season. Moon (277) and Testaverde (234). Last year, 277 points would have ranked as the #17 QB.

We shall see . . .
Click to expand...
When you're talking about such little sample size, playing the "use the Data Dominator to see comparables" game has to go out the window. History argued against Favre doing what he did as a 37-year old, a 38-year old, a 39-year old and a 40-year old. Yet he did it.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/h...c&display=p
Click to expand...
So at what point does the cycle stop? Would Favre continue on at 45? 50? 60?Even if Favre WERE NOT 41 years old, the likelihood of him having another season like last year are slim. Guys don't repeat 33 TD and 7 INT seasons very often, let alone back to back.

If Favre put up numbers like he did in New York (getting him 250 fantasy points), that might not net him a top 15 ranking anymore. Last year, that would have ranked 19th.

I don't think it's unreasonable to think that he will slow down, he could return to forcing the ball when he shouldn't, and with even a minor injury his numbers could be very different this year.

Just my opinion, others will differ.
Click to expand...
Next year when he finally retires. :mellow:
 
Maroney=Speed said:
Did Rice make Favre Great last year or did Favre make Rice Great last year?
Click to expand...
One guy spent the better part of two decades being great before last season, including turning guys like Bill Schroeder into fantasy commodities, the other looked like a tall skinny bust who couldn't gain separation. You decide.
 
sho nuff said:
Maybe...just maybe...both players are pretty darn good and contributed to the other's success last season?
Click to expand...
If you're going to keep up all this reasonable talk, you'll have to go, you know...Favre will find someone to throw to - Harvin's not dead, Berrian seems healthy...heh, maybe Javon Walker will catch a few passes again? *ducks* I wouldn't bet against him playing the season out, but I wouldn't bet ON him matching or exceeding career highs again. He's got to take a hit, maybe to 25-27 TDs, 3800-4000 yards. Good, not great.
 
Jason Wood said:
Maroney=Speed said:
Did Rice make Favre Great last year or did Favre make Rice Great last year?
Click to expand...
One guy spent the better part of two decades being great before last season, including turning guys like Bill Schroeder into fantasy commodities, the other looked like a tall skinny bust who couldn't gain separation. You decide.
Click to expand...
So next question what makes you think that Favre is now not a Top 10 QB? I had to ask the first question to have you see the out come.Thanks for playing.
 
David Yudkin said:
Did Favre make Cotchery, Coles, or Stuckey great in New York?
Click to expand...
My bullishness for Favre entering last year was two-fold.1) He was legitimately hurt in New York and his play suffered down the stretch as a result2) The Vikings offense was a carbon copy of his Packers playbook, versus a completely different system in NYNow for anyone to seriously say that Sidney Rice was solely a product of Favre is silliness, and as I said at the start of this thread I don't see anyone on this roster capable of duplicating what Rice did last year. But bringing the Jets situation into the conversation just makes no sense to me. :rolleyes: He was a square peg in a round hole, who is now comfortably back slotted into a square hole again.
 
Jason Wood said:
David Yudkin said:
Did Favre make Cotchery, Coles, or Stuckey great in New York?
Click to expand...
My bullishness for Favre entering last year was two-fold.1) He was legitimately hurt in New York and his play suffered down the stretch as a result2) The Vikings offense was a carbon copy of his Packers playbook, versus a completely different system in NYNow for anyone to seriously say that Sidney Rice was solely a product of Favre is silliness, and as I said at the start of this thread I don't see anyone on this roster capable of duplicating what Rice did last year. But bringing the Jets situation into the conversation just makes no sense to me. :rolleyes: He was a square peg in a round hole, who is now comfortably back slotted into a square hole again.
Click to expand...
So where do you have him ranked now and why?
 
Jason Wood said:
David Yudkin said:
Did Favre make Cotchery, Coles, or Stuckey great in New York?
Click to expand...
My bullishness for Favre entering last year was two-fold.1) He was legitimately hurt in New York and his play suffered down the stretch as a result2) The Vikings offense was a carbon copy of his Packers playbook, versus a completely different system in NYNow for anyone to seriously say that Sidney Rice was solely a product of Favre is silliness, and as I said at the start of this thread I don't see anyone on this roster capable of duplicating what Rice did last year. But bringing the Jets situation into the conversation just makes no sense to me. :shrug: He was a square peg in a round hole, who is now comfortably back slotted into a square hole again.
Click to expand...
I don't think any one player makes another, but certainly they unilaterally can work better together or not. I agree that Favre was not a fit in NY but is a much better fit in MIN.I still say Favre has a rockier road than last year. I would take the under if the option was better or worse than last year's numbers.
 
Maroney=Speed said:
Jason Wood said:
David Yudkin said:
Did Favre make Cotchery, Coles, or Stuckey great in New York?
Click to expand...
My bullishness for Favre entering last year was two-fold.1) He was legitimately hurt in New York and his play suffered down the stretch as a result2) The Vikings offense was a carbon copy of his Packers playbook, versus a completely different system in NYNow for anyone to seriously say that Sidney Rice was solely a product of Favre is silliness, and as I said at the start of this thread I don't see anyone on this roster capable of duplicating what Rice did last year. But bringing the Jets situation into the conversation just makes no sense to me. :shrug: He was a square peg in a round hole, who is now comfortably back slotted into a square hole again.
Click to expand...
So where do you have him ranked now and why?
Click to expand...
Having just redone my projections, he'll be QB12 right now with the following projections:339 for 5203650 yards25 TDs15 INTs25 rush yards0 rush TDs270 FPTs:shrug:
 
I still think a QB 1 but more like a 10-12 rather than a 6-9 finish. I don't think the stats overall will suffer but the INTS could increase especially if the Vikings are down. Favre will attempt to make things happen if he cannot trust his receivers. Bump up Berrian.

 
David Yudkin said:
Jason Wood said:
David Yudkin said:
Jason Wood said:
David Yudkin said:
I wasn't that hiogh on Favre in the first place. I had him ranked 18th. Rice being out and Harvin having issues won't help any.
Click to expand...
Favre has never finished worse than 14th including the year he had a bum labrum and played in a new offense in New York. 18th was too low (IMHO) with or without any particular weapon.
Click to expand...
I don't think predicting some sort of injury to a 40+ year old QB is really going out on a limb (whether he misses game time or not). One helmet to his passing hand and thinks could change pretty quickly.There have been two 41 year old QBs to hit 200 fantasy points in a season. Moon (277) and Testaverde (234). Last year, 277 points would have ranked as the #17 QB.

We shall see . . .
Click to expand...
When you're talking about such little sample size, playing the "use the Data Dominator to see comparables" game has to go out the window. History argued against Favre doing what he did as a 37-year old, a 38-year old, a 39-year old and a 40-year old. Yet he did it.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/h...c&display=p
Click to expand...
So at what point does the cycle stop? Would Favre continue on at 45? 50? 60?Even if Favre WERE NOT 41 years old, the likelihood of him having another season like last year are slim. Guys don't repeat 33 TD and 7 INT seasons very often, let alone back to back.
Click to expand...
I agree, and I've not heard one person make the argument that he will repeat that success. It's the 18th ranked projection that has me scratching my head, and perhaps you will move him even lower now w/ Rice's injury. Putting Favre in the same class as the likes of Mark Sanchez, Chad Henne, David Garrard, and Matt Stafford can really only mean you're predicting an injury to Favre, unless you really believe the Vikings offense is well below average.
 
Jason Wood said:
Maroney=Speed said:
Jason Wood said:
David Yudkin said:
Did Favre make Cotchery, Coles, or Stuckey great in New York?
Click to expand...
My bullishness for Favre entering last year was two-fold.1) He was legitimately hurt in New York and his play suffered down the stretch as a result2) The Vikings offense was a carbon copy of his Packers playbook, versus a completely different system in NYNow for anyone to seriously say that Sidney Rice was solely a product of Favre is silliness, and as I said at the start of this thread I don't see anyone on this roster capable of duplicating what Rice did last year. But bringing the Jets situation into the conversation just makes no sense to me. :shrug: He was a square peg in a round hole, who is now comfortably back slotted into a square hole again.
Click to expand...
So where do you have him ranked now and why?
Click to expand...
Having just redone my projections, he'll be QB12 right now with the following projections:339 for 5203650 yards25 TDs15 INTs25 rush yards0 rush TDs270 FPTs:shrug:
Click to expand...
OK. Where did you have him ranked before?
 
Jason Wood said:
Now for anyone to seriously say that Sidney Rice was solely a product of Favre is silliness, and as I said at the start of this thread I don't see anyone on this roster capable of duplicating what Rice did last year.
Click to expand...
Why would that be silliness? Rice was junk before Favre showed up. Less than junk...he looked up to junk. He just found a guy who could work with his few impressive, but purely physical skills. Is Berrian so different? Berrian was almost WR 2-able with an "upgrade" to Rex Grossman throwing him the ball back in the day. Why wouldn't Favre put him further ahead on that track?Net effect here on Favre's numbers: zero. His weapons are every bit as good now as they were two days ago. It's just that the crappy receiver he focused on has disappeared, and he now has to focus on a different crappy receiver.
 
Maroney=Speed said:
Jason Wood said:
David Yudkin said:
Did Favre make Cotchery, Coles, or Stuckey great in New York?
Click to expand...
My bullishness for Favre entering last year was two-fold.1) He was legitimately hurt in New York and his play suffered down the stretch as a result2) The Vikings offense was a carbon copy of his Packers playbook, versus a completely different system in NYNow for anyone to seriously say that Sidney Rice was solely a product of Favre is silliness, and as I said at the start of this thread I don't see anyone on this roster capable of duplicating what Rice did last year. But bringing the Jets situation into the conversation just makes no sense to me. :lmao: He was a square peg in a round hole, who is now comfortably back slotted into a square hole again.
Click to expand...
So where do you have him ranked now and why?
Click to expand...
The Vikings Oline also are gonna have more difficult protecting Favre.
 
JYJ said:
Maroney=Speed said:
Jason Wood said:
David Yudkin said:
Did Favre make Cotchery, Coles, or Stuckey great in New York?
Click to expand...
My bullishness for Favre entering last year was two-fold.1) He was legitimately hurt in New York and his play suffered down the stretch as a result2) The Vikings offense was a carbon copy of his Packers playbook, versus a completely different system in NYNow for anyone to seriously say that Sidney Rice was solely a product of Favre is silliness, and as I said at the start of this thread I don't see anyone on this roster capable of duplicating what Rice did last year. But bringing the Jets situation into the conversation just makes no sense to me. :lmao: He was a square peg in a round hole, who is now comfortably back slotted into a square hole again.
Click to expand...
So where do you have him ranked now and why?
Click to expand...
The Vikings Oline also are gonna have more difficult protecting Favre. And they just signed Javon Walker, well at least he and Brett know each other.
Click to expand...
 
Maroney=Speed said:
Favre will not(Not) play all 16 games this year.
Click to expand...
Can't really know one way or the other. But I'm leaning your way.About Favre's games-started streak -- isn't it clear that the streak has required two things to take place on top of Favre's general toughness?1) Insane luck, and2) Starting games when almmost any other QB would/should have been benched (e.g. late 2008)No one really thinks there's something special about Favre physically that would allow him to, for example, withstand LT's career-ending hit on Joe Theismann, do they? Just because Favre hasn't been put out of next-week's action by an injury doesn't mean it can't happen.
 
Maroney=Speed said:
Jason Wood said:
Maroney=Speed said:
Jason Wood said:
David Yudkin said:
Did Favre make Cotchery, Coles, or Stuckey great in New York?
Click to expand...
My bullishness for Favre entering last year was two-fold.1) He was legitimately hurt in New York and his play suffered down the stretch as a result2) The Vikings offense was a carbon copy of his Packers playbook, versus a completely different system in NYNow for anyone to seriously say that Sidney Rice was solely a product of Favre is silliness, and as I said at the start of this thread I don't see anyone on this roster capable of duplicating what Rice did last year. But bringing the Jets situation into the conversation just makes no sense to me. :shrug: He was a square peg in a round hole, who is now comfortably back slotted into a square hole again.
Click to expand...
So where do you have him ranked now and why?
Click to expand...
Having just redone my projections, he'll be QB12 right now with the following projections:339 for 5203650 yards25 TDs15 INTs25 rush yards0 rush TDs270 FPTs:shrug:
Click to expand...
OK. Where did you have him ranked before?
Click to expand...
If you're a subscriber you can take a gander yourself, the new projections aren't going to show up on the site until tonight or tomorrow morning.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Scoresman
My 2025 NFL Team Offense Rankings
Replies
2
Views
5K
taylormeetstheismann
taylormeetstheismann
T
Travdogg's positional rankings (summer edition)
2
Replies
84
Views
5K
wgoldsph
wgoldsph
Zareh Kantzabedian
Why I Think Adonai Mitchell is a WR2 in 2024 - Plus Talk On Going Against ADP
2
Replies
94
Views
9K
Joe Bryant
Joe Bryant

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top