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"Go Get These Guys" (1 Viewer)

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Every year I try and determine who the top ten RB's will be. Usually the ADP that most people use is a very safe formula that isn't a whole lot different than the actual top ten of the previous year. Us fantasy footballers are conservative like that.

But each year there are big surprises.

In 2009, here was a sampling of the average ADP of the top ten with their actual finish beside their name (non-ppr)

Peterson (2)

MJD (3)

Turner (23, injured)

Forte (17)

Deangelo (14 injured)

TOMLINSON! (19)

Steven Jackson (12)

Chris Johnson (1)

Slaton (36)

Gore (5)

The guys that finished in the top ten and their pre-season ADP

4. Rice (19)

6. T.Jones (25)

7. R.Williams (58!)

8. Grant (15)

9. Charles (56)

10 Addai (22)

Interesting numbers to look at. What strikes you immediately is that injury plays a decent part in determining which players fall out of the top ten, as shown by Deangelo and Turner, two guys who probably make the top ten if they don't get injured. Then you have your busts, Slaton and Forte (although pre-season fluff pieces will argue that injuries were the downfall of both last year).

So there's really no need to look at this year's ADP and try to figure out who will get injured and who will bust, because we don't really know. That's almost impossible to figure out.

What we need to do is look at the guys that snuck in last year and figure out how to identify the best candidates. While Rice and Jamaal Charles certainly exploded on the scene, Thomas Jones and Ricky Williams showed that old guys can get back into the mix and this can help us determine the best opportunites for top ten production this year. Here is my list, and I'm going to try and stick with players with ADP's above 20. (http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?year=2010&teams=12&pos=rb)

High Confidence:

1. Joseph Addai ADP (20)--Go get this guy! Everyone is waiting on Donald Brown to explode and take the reigns. Here is a guy who finished in the top ten last year, who has looked good in the pre-season, and who is still the starter in 2010 for one of the top 3 offenses in the entire league! Why is his ADP at 20??

2. Arian Foster ADP (24)--Why is the starting RB on a top 5 offense at 24 in mock drafts done in the past week? Ben Tate is no longer a factor for 2010. Steve Slaton is....Steve Slaton. Maybe it's because he's unproven? I guess. I think that Foster is a slam-dunk for the top ten if he stays healthy.

Probably not, but certainly have the ability:

3. Clinton Portis ADP (36)--Shanahan's system..LJ and Parker are both flailing (who would have imagined). Torain and Williams are both unknowns...Um, what are we waiting for? Shanahan will get a running game together and Portis seems like the perfect man for the job. Portis is 100% my "back from the dead" special in 2010. I think some people are scared off by him for some reason, but talk to Skins fans, and they'll all tell you that Portis is the horse for 2010. Yeah, of course injuries are a concern. But if he stays healthy, he could easily break the top ten.

4. Jerome Harrison (32)--I know, I know...Montario Hardesty. Listen, I'm sure that Hardesty will be ok. I was personally never blown away by him in college, but I've heard that the Browns are high on him. But in reality, how could they be? He's barely touched the field and has been injured for much of camp! Harrison meanwhile, dominated towards the end of 2009 and will begin the season as the starter. Harrison knows that this is his chance to be a starting RB and he knows he has a rookie hot on his tail. His ADP is extremely low and reflects the apprehension of fantasy owners to take a risk. But he has the talent, and the OL is good enough to help him reach a top ten ranking if he can hold off Hardesty.

Say What???

Yes, these are my flyers.

5. Leon Washington--(49) SAY WHAT??? That's right, Leon Washington. Look I know that he's never recorded 700 yards before. I know he is coming off of a gruesome injury in 2009 and that his career might seem to be slipping away (28). But this is one example of a time where you listen to the practice reports and the coaches. For the past 3 months nothing but praise has come Leon's way from the coaching staff. They never tried to rush him back, despite the fact that he supposedly felt great. Carroll has said things like "he can be special in this offense". Coach-speak? Yeah. But this guy gets healthy and immediately moves to the starting position over two guys who have been on the team for some time? Forsett, who has been WAY overrated on these boards just got passed like he was standing still. Leon seems extremely motivated, and he knows this is his last shot to have a couple big NFL seasons. From everything I have read, he is looking awesome and he could provide big things in 2010 to an unsuspecting fantasy world.

6. Darren Mcfadden--(44) Mcfadden has fallen to "after-thought" status by many. Michael Bush is widely assumed to be the man for the Raiders now. However, the reason I have Mcfadden here is simple. I'm going back to the scouting I did in college. I thought he was awesome. I thought he would be an awesome pro. Well guess what...he got straddled with the worst starting QB in NFL history. That couldn't help. Plus he has been injury-plagued. Also, didn't help. Yeah, it might be a stretch to assume that he can stay healthy for 16 games..But at an ADP of 44, I'll take that chance. This guy has the talent to be a top ten RB, and I think it's possible.

An Injury Away...

My last two have no chance unless injuries happen to the 1st stringers. But if they do...watch out.

7. Javon Ringer--I don't even see him on the list. I told people last year to watch out for Ringer, and I still stand firm to that statement. He was essentially redshirted last year, and is fresh and ready to go. He should get CJ much needed rest from time to time. In the event that CJ should get injured though, Ringer is a top ten RB lock. Not bad for a guy not even listed in these rankings.

8. Willis McGahee--(48) It would take a Rice injury...but McGahee really looked good last year and still has talent. He's also a slim candidate to get traded as the season approaches. He's just a handcuff and probably won't have much value, but if Rice were to get hurt...McGahee could easily be a top ten RB.

 
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4. Jerome Harrison (32)--I know, I know...Montario Hardesty. Listen, I have no doubts that Hardesty will be ok. I personally was never super impressed by him in college, but I've heard that the Browns are high on him. But how could they be? He's barely touched the field? Harrison meanwhile, dominated towards the end of 2009 and will begin the season as the starter. Harrison knows that this is his chance to be a starting RB and he knows he has a rookie hot on his tail. His ADP is extremely low and reflects the apprehension of fantasy owners to take a risk. But he has the talent, and the OL is good enough to help him reach a top ten ranking if he can hold off Hardesty.
he did?
 
Good thread. I always like discussing who will move into the top 10. It's been proven that there's a ~50% turnover each year on avg.

Regarding your choices--

Addai - unlikely again in my mind; I think the Colts will give Brown much more work this year. Last year Addai had pretty much a "feature back" role, I don't see it happening again like that. He'll still be a solid RB2, but top 10? Highly doubtful.

Foster - I can see this. ADP is climbing fast, and if he stays healthy should be a virtual lock for top15 if not higher. Should get ALL goalline work.

Portis - Good selection, and he is certainly a better value than his ADP. Not as confident in top 10 though. The big difference between him & Williams/Jones from last year is total mileage. Portis is 29 going on 35.

Harrison - I like him, but have a very tough time believing CLE will produce a top 10 back. There are other guys at his ADP which I would prefer, namely Bradshaw, M. Bush, R. Bush. Those guys have a much better chance at top 10 IMO.

Leon - would take a minor miracle. I don't think he could hold up under the workload that is required of a top 10 back. Forsett is equally as talented IMO which means he should get as much work as Leon at least. Full blown RBBC here, no chance of top 10 IMO.

McFadden - would require a Bush injury to get GL carries & would need to hold up under more work. No way.

Ringer/McGahee - can see this with injuries to top guys.

 
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I saw the thread title and just KNEW Bradshaw would be on your list. I loved him last year but he had the injuries and the O-line underperformed. I think this is his year but the problem is so do A LOT of other people.

I agree with the overall thought process behind this thread and Addia and Foster are good candidates. Some other names I'd throw out there are Bush (OAK-Never been a Mcfadden believer), Bush (NO-PPR), Spiller, Best, maybe Ricky Williams AGAIN.

 
addai portis and jerome harrison are absolute steals

im hoping to get both addai and brown because the colts have never been big on rbbc and if either goes down ive got pure gold.

 
The only guy on that list I really don't like is McFadden I dont think he is tough enough to fight for the yards and I don't think his body is tough enough. Other then McFadden I like the list I doubt any of them outside of Addai actually make it but it could happen and you gave a good reason for it.

 
4. Jerome Harrison (32)--I know, I know...Montario Hardesty. Listen, I have no doubts that Hardesty will be ok. I personally was never super impressed by him in college, but I've heard that the Browns are high on him. But how could they be? He's barely touched the field? Harrison meanwhile, dominated towards the end of 2009 and will begin the season as the starter. Harrison knows that this is his chance to be a starting RB and he knows he has a rookie hot on his tail. His ADP is extremely low and reflects the apprehension of fantasy owners to take a risk. But he has the talent, and the OL is good enough to help him reach a top ten ranking if he can hold off Hardesty.
he did?
:goodposting: Didn't he average like 200/2 once he took over the starting job?

 
the thing with jerome harrison you have to consider is not the likelihood that he will end the season as a top 10 back. its the likelihood that you can plug him in during the weeks where he has a good matchup and know theres a very good chance he will put up a nice week. you also know hes going to get touches and thus at least a few points when you desperately need to plug in an rb in due to bye weeks etc. at his adp you certainly aren't expecting to get an every week starter.

 
Good thread and I agree with most of your takes. Also agree that Bradshaw should be on this list unless you already consider him top 20. And I'm definitely hoping everyone is right about Foster. We drafted a few weeks ago and I grabbed him off of waivers - there are usually a few pick-ups like this every year that make a huge difference on someone's team and I'm hoping this is one of them!

Thanks for the good read...

 
I think there a lot of guys going in rounds 4 and beyond who stand a very good chance of finishing as a legit #1 fantasy backs. Bradshaw, Addai, Charles, TJones, Ricky, Ronnie, Spiller, Best, MBush, Barber, Portis, we could go on and on. That is why I am drafting the #### out of RBs in the mid rounds. This year, I would rather spread my risk out with Addai, Spiller, MBush, Barber, and Bradshaw than invest everything early on guys like Mendenpuppy and Benson.

 
I think there a lot of guys going in rounds 4 and beyond who stand a very good chance of finishing as a legit #1 fantasy backs. Bradshaw, Addai, Charles, TJones, Ricky, Ronnie, Spiller, Best, MBush, Barber, Portis, we could go on and on. That is why I am drafting the #### out of RBs in the mid rounds. This year, I would rather spread my risk out with Addai, Spiller, MBush, Barber, and Bradshaw than invest everything early on guys like Mendenpuppy and Benson.
heck yeah! :thumbup:
 
can someone explain why portis is going so low when i cant imagine him finishing the year with less than 1300 total yards and 6 td's

 
foster is a lock for top. absolutely shocked that fbg's rankings arent reflecting this more.
He is a lock for nothing. What has Arian Foster done over the course of a season? This will be (assuming he holds onto the job which I think will not happen) his frist year to prove anything. You draft accordingly with guys like him. If you like him so much grab him a round earlier and look like a genuis!
 
I think those that love Foster and are totally dismissing Slaton in the HOU offense are mistaken.
Very :goodposting: Slaton is my biggest value special at RB this year.1) Slaton2) Ahmad Bradshaw3) LT4) McGahee (TD's lot's of TD's)5) Ronnie Brown (plays 16 top 10 back)
 
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Every year I try and determine who the top ten RB's will be. Usually the ADP that most people use is a very safe formula that isn't a whole lot different than the actual top ten of the previous year. Us fantasy footballers are conservative like that.

But each year there are big surprises.

In 2009, here was a sampling of the average ADP of the top ten with their actual finish beside their name (non-ppr)

Peterson (2)

MJD (3)

Turner (23, injured)

Forte (17)

Deangelo (14 injured)

TOMLINSON! (19)

Steven Jackson (12)

Chris Johnson (1)

Slaton (36)

Gore (5)

The guys that finished in the top ten and their pre-season ADP

4. Rice (19)

6. T.Jones (25)

7. R.Williams (58!)

8. Grant (15)

9. Charles (56)

10 Addai (22)

Interesting numbers to look at. What strikes you immediately is that injury plays a decent part in determining which players fall out of the top ten, as shown by Deangelo and Turner, two guys who probably make the top ten if they don't get injured. Then you have your busts, Slaton and Forte (although pre-season fluff pieces will argue that injuries were the downfall of both last year).

So there's really no need to look at this year's ADP and try to figure out who will get injured and who will bust, because we don't really know. That's almost impossible to figure out.

What we need to do is look at the guys that snuck in last year and figure out how to identify the best candidates. While Rice and Jamaal Charles certainly exploded on the scene, Thomas Jones and Ricky Williams showed that old guys can get back into the mix and this can help us determine the best opportunites for top ten production this year. Here is my list, and I'm going to try and stick with players with ADP's above 20. (http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?year=2010&teams=12&pos=rb)

High Confidence:

1. Joseph Addai ADP (20)--Go get this guy! Everyone is waiting on Donald Brown to explode and take the reigns. Here is a guy who finished in the top ten last year, who has looked good in the pre-season, and who is still the starter in 2010 for one of the top 3 offenses in the entire league! Why is his ADP at 20??

2. Arian Foster ADP (24)--Why is the starting RB on a top 5 offense at 24 in mock drafts done in the past week? Ben Tate is no longer a factor for 2010. Steve Slaton is....Steve Slaton. Maybe it's because he's unproven? I guess. I think that Foster is a slam-dunk for the top ten if he stays healthy.

Probably not, but certainly have the ability:

3. Clinton Portis ADP (36)--Shanahan's system..LJ and Parker are both flailing (who would have imagined). Torain and Williams are both unknowns...Um, what are we waiting for? Shanahan will get a running game together and Portis seems like the perfect man for the job. Portis is 100% my "back from the dead" special in 2010. I think some people are scared off by him for some reason, but talk to Skins fans, and they'll all tell you that Portis is the horse for 2010. Yeah, of course injuries are a concern. But if he stays healthy, he could easily break the top ten.

4. Jerome Harrison (32)--I know, I know...Montario Hardesty. Listen, I'm sure that Hardesty will be ok. I was personally never blown away by him in college, but I've heard that the Browns are high on him. But in reality, how could they be? He's barely touched the field and has been injured for much of camp! Harrison meanwhile, dominated towards the end of 2009 and will begin the season as the starter. Harrison knows that this is his chance to be a starting RB and he knows he has a rookie hot on his tail. His ADP is extremely low and reflects the apprehension of fantasy owners to take a risk. But he has the talent, and the OL is good enough to help him reach a top ten ranking if he can hold off Hardesty.

Say What???

Yes, these are my flyers.

5. Leon Washington--(49) SAY WHAT??? That's right, Leon Washington. Look I know that he's never recorded 700 yards before. I know he is coming off of a gruesome injury in 2009 and that his career might seem to be slipping away (28). But this is one example of a time where you listen to the practice reports and the coaches. For the past 3 months nothing but praise has come Leon's way from the coaching staff. They never tried to rush him back, despite the fact that he supposedly felt great. Carroll has said things like "he can be special in this offense". Coach-speak? Yeah. But this guy gets healthy and immediately moves to the starting position over two guys who have been on the team for some time? Forsett, who has been WAY overrated on these boards just got passed like he was standing still. Leon seems extremely motivated, and he knows this is his last shot to have a couple big NFL seasons. From everything I have read, he is looking awesome and he could provide big things in 2010 to an unsuspecting fantasy world.

6. Darren Mcfadden--(44) Mcfadden has fallen to "after-thought" status by many. Michael Bush is widely assumed to be the man for the Raiders now. However, the reason I have Mcfadden here is simple. I'm going back to the scouting I did in college. I thought he was awesome. I thought he would be an awesome pro. Well guess what...he got straddled with the worst starting QB in NFL history. That couldn't help. Plus he has been injury-plagued. Also, didn't help. Yeah, it might be a stretch to assume that he can stay healthy for 16 games..But at an ADP of 44, I'll take that chance. This guy has the talent to be a top ten RB, and I think it's possible.

An Injury Away...

My last two have no chance unless injuries happen to the 1st stringers. But if they do...watch out.

7. Javon Ringer--I don't even see him on the list. I told people last year to watch out for Ringer, and I still stand firm to that statement. He was essentially redshirted last year, and is fresh and ready to go. He should get CJ much needed rest from time to time. In the event that CJ should get injured though, Ringer is a top ten RB lock. Not bad for a guy not even listed in these rankings.

8. Willis McGahee--(48) It would take a Rice injury...but McGahee really looked good last year and still has talent. He's also a slim candidate to get traded as the season approaches. He's just a handcuff and probably won't have much value, but if Rice were to get hurt...McGahee could easily be a top ten RB.
yowza- this post reads like my personal strategy notes; its a dice roll, but in my league where QB scoring is a must i'm probably waiting on a RB with a lot of these names in mind...
 
4. Jerome Harrison (32)--I know, I know...Montario Hardesty. Listen, I have no doubts that Hardesty will be ok. I personally was never super impressed by him in college, but I've heard that the Browns are high on him. But how could they be? He's barely touched the field? Harrison meanwhile, dominated towards the end of 2009 and will begin the season as the starter. Harrison knows that this is his chance to be a starting RB and he knows he has a rookie hot on his tail. His ADP is extremely low and reflects the apprehension of fantasy owners to take a risk. But he has the talent, and the OL is good enough to help him reach a top ten ranking if he can hold off Hardesty.
he did?
:kicksrock: Didn't he average like 200/2 once he took over the starting job?
He had the one monster game against KC. 34/286/3

And his yardage TD totals look good in his other two starts

148/1 vs Oak

127/1 vs Jax

But considering it took him 39 carries in the Oakland game and another 33 in the Jacksonville game to put up those numbers, I'd hardly call it dominating.

 
This may shock people as it would me if he ever plays a full 16 games but Ronnie Brown is playing for a contract, always pts up top ten numbers when healthy and was probably the best RB last year aside of CJ prior to him going down with injury. If he status healthy.... Big if. But if he does your looking top 5 possibly.

Funny thing is no one talks about him either.

 
This may shock people as it would me if he ever plays a full 16 games but Ronnie Brown is playing for a contract, always pts up top ten numbers when healthy and was probably the best RB last year aside of CJ prior to him going down with injury. If he status healthy.... Big if. But if he does your looking top 5 possibly.Funny thing is no one talks about him either.
Ronnie is healthy and playing for a contract. Thing is with Ronnie...all his injuries have been freak ones. It's not like he has nagging tissue injuries and BS like that. He had legit injuries that were bad luck.Kid has ton's of talent, great hands, great attitude and is poised for a huge year.....finally!!! So Shhhhhhhhhh.
 
4. Jerome Harrison (32)--I know, I know...Montario Hardesty. Listen, I have no doubts that Hardesty will be ok. I personally was never super impressed by him in college, but I've heard that the Browns are high on him. But how could they be? He's barely touched the field? Harrison meanwhile, dominated towards the end of 2009 and will begin the season as the starter. Harrison knows that this is his chance to be a starting RB and he knows he has a rookie hot on his tail. His ADP is extremely low and reflects the apprehension of fantasy owners to take a risk. But he has the talent, and the OL is good enough to help him reach a top ten ranking if he can hold off Hardesty.
he did?
Yes.

34 carries for 286 and 3 tds

39 for 148 and 1

33 for 127 and 1.

Probably won a few people a championship.

 
4. Jerome Harrison (32)--I know, I know...Montario Hardesty. Listen, I have no doubts that Hardesty will be ok. I personally was never super impressed by him in college, but I've heard that the Browns are high on him. But how could they be? He's barely touched the field? Harrison meanwhile, dominated towards the end of 2009 and will begin the season as the starter. Harrison knows that this is his chance to be a starting RB and he knows he has a rookie hot on his tail. His ADP is extremely low and reflects the apprehension of fantasy owners to take a risk. But he has the talent, and the OL is good enough to help him reach a top ten ranking if he can hold off Hardesty.
he did?
:thumbdown: Didn't he average like 200/2 once he took over the starting job?
He had the one monster game against KC. 34/286/3

And his yardage TD totals look good in his other two starts

148/1 vs Oak

127/1 vs Jax

But considering it took him 39 carries in the Oakland game and another 33 in the Jacksonville game to put up those numbers, I'd hardly call it dominating.
Tell ya what. You take the guy who IS dominating, and I'll take the guy who ends up with...hold on a second while I prorate...3000 rushing yards and 27 TD's, and we'll see who comes out ahead.Naturally, I'm not saying Harrison will achieve those totals over a full 16. But he did achieve that over the three games under discussion. If that's not dominating, then baby, I'd love to see dominating.

 
I saw the thread title and just KNEW Bradshaw would be on your list. I loved him last year but he had the injuries and the O-line underperformed. I think this is his year but the problem is so do A LOT of other people.I agree with the overall thought process behind this thread and Addia and Foster are good candidates. Some other names I'd throw out there are Bush (OAK-Never been a Mcfadden believer), Bush (NO-PPR), Spiller, Best, maybe Ricky Williams AGAIN.
I did consider Bradshaw. That being said, there's something inside of me that just isn't convinced that he'll be able to be a top ten rb. Also, he's become quite the trendy pick as well. He's certainly another good candidate, but I just don't have much confidence in him and I can't put my finger on the "why".
 
the thing with jerome harrison you have to consider is not the likelihood that he will end the season as a top 10 back. its the likelihood that you can plug him in during the weeks where he has a good matchup and know theres a very good chance he will put up a nice week. you also know hes going to get touches and thus at least a few points when you desperately need to plug in an rb in due to bye weeks etc. at his adp you certainly aren't expecting to get an every week starter.
why not? I mean, if Hardesty cuts into his carries or gets goalline carries, then I would agree with you.But if not, I'd start Harrison week 1 and feel completely confident. Some good talent on that Oline, and if anything, Delhomme can hopefully be an upgrade over what they had last year in the passing game, though I personally think Seneca Wallace will be starting at some point.
 
4. Jerome Harrison (32)--I know, I know...Montario Hardesty. Listen, I have no doubts that Hardesty will be ok. I personally was never super impressed by him in college, but I've heard that the Browns are high on him. But how could they be? He's barely touched the field? Harrison meanwhile, dominated towards the end of 2009 and will begin the season as the starter. Harrison knows that this is his chance to be a starting RB and he knows he has a rookie hot on his tail. His ADP is extremely low and reflects the apprehension of fantasy owners to take a risk. But he has the talent, and the OL is good enough to help him reach a top ten ranking if he can hold off Hardesty.
he did?
:hifive: Didn't he average like 200/2 once he took over the starting job?
:lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao:that's classic fantasy football analysis --- statistical analysis of 3 number samples.

that reminds me of a great quote, although I can't actually remember who it's from, and probably thousands have said something similar:

some guy who played with wilt chamberlain fondly recalled the night where he and wilt combined for 105 points, or whatever it was.

so, let's take a look at the sample you're averaging, while bearing in mind that his competition at the time was rookie udfa chris jennings, and rookie 6th rounder james davis......

here's the domination:

wk15 @KC 34 carries 286 yds 8.4 ypc 3 td

this is absolute domination in every sense of the word over a team that was 27 yds away from giving up the most rushing yardage in all of football -- but still domination, we agree 100%.

wk16 vs OAK 39 carries 148 yds 3.8 ypc 1 td

if this is domination then I guess I just don't know what domination is, because it looks more like a pretty average effort by a guy getting nearly 40 carries against one of the worst offenses in the league, which scored 9 in the game.

the oakland raiders gave up the most rush td's in the league (1.5 per game), the 4th most yardage (about 150 ypg, and a horrible average 4.5 ypc --- harrison manages 3.8 ypc and 1 td, but this is domination?

dude, you give any back in the league 40 carries and he'll put up some numbers.

wk17 vs jax 33 carries 127 yds 3.8 ypc 1 td

now, here's a team that's actually not one of the very worst rush defenses in football --- they were merely average (4.1 ypc), however another 3.8 ypc and 1 td on on 33 carries doesn't seem very dominating to me, unless you mean a dominant number of carries.

so, if he's playing kc 16x, or you want to make the case that he's getting 500 carries, then I'm a big believer.

until then, you've got one fluke game from an average back against zero competition.

I would imagine cleveland holds hardesty in somewhat higher regard than jennings or davis.

 
4. Jerome Harrison (32)--I know, I know...Montario Hardesty. Listen, I have no doubts that Hardesty will be ok. I personally was never super impressed by him in college, but I've heard that the Browns are high on him. But how could they be? He's barely touched the field? Harrison meanwhile, dominated towards the end of 2009 and will begin the season as the starter. Harrison knows that this is his chance to be a starting RB and he knows he has a rookie hot on his tail. His ADP is extremely low and reflects the apprehension of fantasy owners to take a risk. But he has the talent, and the OL is good enough to help him reach a top ten ranking if he can hold off Hardesty.
he did?
:hifive: Didn't he average like 200/2 once he took over the starting job?
:lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao:that's classic fantasy football analysis --- statistical analysis of 3 number samples.
Stopping the quote right there, since the rest of it was foolish and irrelevant.The question at hand was whether his performance was dominating over that 3 game sample, and only over that 3 game sample. Everything else is meaningless.

 
"Player X did well for me last week. He ran for 200 yards and 3 touchdowns."

"HAHAHA! Classic newb mistake! Classic statistical misinterpretation! Classic drawing of conclusions from inadequate sample size! The man has a whole career of mediocrity, and besides, he didn't achieve the numbers in the efficient way I'd prefer to see my TRUE studs do it! HE S-U-C-K-S."

" :hifive: Yeah, but he did well for me last week."

 
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Tell ya what. You take the guy who IS dominating, and I'll take the guy who ends up with...hold on a second while I prorate...3000 rushing yards and 27 TD's, and we'll see who comes out ahead.Naturally, I'm not saying Harrison will achieve those totals over a full 16. But he did achieve that over the three games under discussion. If that's not dominating, then baby, I'd love to see dominating.
You do realize that aside from the KC game he was very average right? There is no way he is going to average 30+ carries every game all season long. If you average his yardage out, he's at 3.7 - 3.8 yds per carry. Decent, but not eye opening the way some backs are averaging around 4+ yds per carry. Any back with 30+ carries will put up numbers.** Edited to add: You beat me to it Larry.... **
 
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4. Jerome Harrison (32)--I know, I know...Montario Hardesty. Listen, I have no doubts that Hardesty will be ok. I personally was never super impressed by him in college, but I've heard that the Browns are high on him. But how could they be? He's barely touched the field? Harrison meanwhile, dominated towards the end of 2009 and will begin the season as the starter. Harrison knows that this is his chance to be a starting RB and he knows he has a rookie hot on his tail. His ADP is extremely low and reflects the apprehension of fantasy owners to take a risk. But he has the talent, and the OL is good enough to help him reach a top ten ranking if he can hold off Hardesty.
he did?
:hifive: Didn't he average like 200/2 once he took over the starting job?
He had the one monster game against KC. 34/286/3

And his yardage TD totals look good in his other two starts

148/1 vs Oak

127/1 vs Jax

But considering it took him 39 carries in the Oakland game and another 33 in the Jacksonville game to put up those numbers, I'd hardly call it dominating.
Oh please. Stop with the word games. Find a new thread if you're going to pick about little things because of the word that was used. If a 46 point game in week 15, a 21 point game in 16, and a 20 point game (standard scoring) in week 17, (for an average of almost 30 ppg over the final three weeks) isn't dominating than I don't know what is.
 
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"Player X did well for me last week. He ran for 200 yards and 3 touchdowns.""HAHAHA! Classic newb mistake! Classic statistical misinterpretation! Classic drawing of conclusions from inadequate sample size! The man has a whole career of mediocrity, and besides, he didn't achieve the numbers in the efficient way I'd prefer to see my TRUE studs do it! HE S-U-C-K-S."" :hifive: Yeah, but he did well for me last week."
yeah, now all you need is a time machine and you can reschedule your superbowl for last week.
 
he had one flukey dominating week and 2 weeks with an unreasonable number of touches that is certainly not a trend.

that is not dominating and its not something to even consider when looking at the upcoming year.

 
Really good read and lots of good points.

Re: Addai, I think people overlook his blocking ability and that continues to give him a major advantage over Brown. He catches also and, so, I really like his chances this year to be a great FF player.

I'm with you on Portis. for one year; this year...Yeah, run his legs off and he probably ends up top 12 or so. Welcome addition on any team I have where he doesn't have to shoulder the load. Nothing but upside on this one compared to where you get him or pay for him.

I LIKED ALOT what I saw of Leon in the game last week. Never been a Leon fan and its pre-season but he clearly looked better than the other guys.

Foster..Man. People are going to be so surprised. Someone said not to overlook Slaton but its opposite: Its time to let go of Slaton (hate to say it cause i have him on one league) but he's headed towards obscurity. He was a nice play in a year where he overachieved on a team that craved a big back but they all got hurt: so, they made the best of it but even when he was drafted they said they saw him as too little to do the things they wanted to do. Well now they're not beggars, they are choosers and Slaton is the fill in guy.

 
'Jerome Harrison a threat to carry the ball 600 times' - shader
... and a team likely to be behind in a lot of games.Wk 1: TB - 20-30 touches maybeWk 2: KC - 20-30 touches maybeWk 3: BAL - BehindWk 4: CIN - BehindWk 5: ATL - BehindWk 6: PIT - BehindWk 7: NO - BehindWk 8: BYEWk 9: NE - BehindWk 10: NYJ - BehindWk 11: JAX - maybe 20-30 touchesWk 12: CAR - maybe 20-30 touchesWk 13: MIA - maybe 20-30 touchesWk 14: BUF - probable 20-30 touches (battle for 32nd spot)Wk 15: CIN - BehindWk 16: BAL - BehindWK 17: PIT - Behind6 games are where I see it probable that he may get over 25+ touches (and that's if he is not splitting with hardesty). I hear what you are saying, but I am just finding it quite a stretch of imagination.
 
sorry i think my post was misunderstood

i was just making fun of shader there because the only way you could consider his performances dominating is if you consider it feasible for him to carry the ball oevr 500 times this year.

 
I think those that love Foster and are totally dismissing Slaton in the HOU offense are mistaken.
Very :thumbup: Slaton is my biggest value special at RB this year.
Dude has major fumbling issues and had a cervical fusion in the offseason. He'll be lucky to hang onto 3rd down duties all year. And he'll likely see Zero goalline action.
I am being very contrarian in this pick. Chris Johnson had cervical fusion in his neck as well in college. We shall see if his fumbling issues continue...because 2 years ago he did not have that problem. Nerve damage going down your arm can do that.
 
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sorry i think my post was misunderstoodi was just making fun of shader there because the only way you could consider his performances dominating is if you consider it feasible for him to carry the ball oevr 500 times this year.
I still think 500 times is waaaay too high. I would redo your projections.
 
So he should have ran for 350 yards, 200 yards and 175 yards? Would that have been dominating enough for you guys?

The 2009 Browns were one of the worst offenses in the league last year. In fact they were....THE WORST OFFENSE IN THE LEAGUE LAST YEAR.

Jerome Harrison got his chance on THE WORST OFFENSE IN THE LEAGUE LAST YEAR, and flat out got it done. With ZERO support from the COMPLETELY INEPT passing game.

To try and suggest otherwise, is ridiculous.

I can completely handle the mocking of Harrison for 2010, if that's what you're doing. But don't try to re-write history.

 
4. Jerome Harrison (32)--I know, I know...Montario Hardesty. Listen, I have no doubts that Hardesty will be ok. I personally was never super impressed by him in college, but I've heard that the Browns are high on him. But how could they be? He's barely touched the field? Harrison meanwhile, dominated towards the end of 2009 and will begin the season as the starter. Harrison knows that this is his chance to be a starting RB and he knows he has a rookie hot on his tail. His ADP is extremely low and reflects the apprehension of fantasy owners to take a risk. But he has the talent, and the OL is good enough to help him reach a top ten ranking if he can hold off Hardesty.
he did?
:lmao: Didn't he average like 200/2 once he took over the starting job?
He had the one monster game against KC. 34/286/3

And his yardage TD totals look good in his other two starts

148/1 vs Oak

127/1 vs Jax

But considering it took him 39 carries in the Oakland game and another 33 in the Jacksonville game to put up those numbers, I'd hardly call it dominating.
Tell ya what. You take the guy who IS dominating, and I'll take the guy who ends up with...hold on a second while I prorate...3000 rushing yards and 27 TD's, and we'll see who comes out ahead.Naturally, I'm not saying Harrison will achieve those totals over a full 16. But he did achieve that over the three games under discussion. If that's not dominating, then baby, I'd love to see dominating.
Don't forget to prorate the carries...565. Okay, I think we're differing on what dominating means. From a pure fantasy standpoint, yes he dominated as in he scored a ton a points the last 3 weeks of the season (something he's most likely not going to repeat since he wont' get to play KC, Jax and Oak every week nor will he average 35 carries a game)

From a football standpoint, he was hardly dominating. He simply put up the large totals due to his abnormally large number of carries. He give him a more reasonable 20 carries a game and he's only putting up 76 yards in those games, clearly not domination.

 
whys this so hard for you to understand. those numbers werent a function of him performing well or even averagely. they were simply a function of how many carries he had. and its quite certainly not something that will ever happen again.

 
Ok I am going to get in on this Jerome Harrison talk.

Dude is no fluke. He can ball. Everytime that guy has been given a chance to play he makes things happen. What is his career YPC? I am sure it is pretty fat. He is a multi purpose type back. He is not the strongest player but he reminds me of a Charlie Garner (49ers seasons) type. Fast, good hands, can make big plays.

If he manages to hang on to the starting gig he is a super value this year.

 
whys this so hard for you to understand. those numbers werent a function of him performing well or even averagely. they were simply a function of how many carries he had. and its quite certainly not something that will ever happen again.
You're right, he wasn't even average in those games. :lmao: Guys, peddle this junk somewhere else.
 

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