Any Garcon owner's concerned? (1 Viewer)

I admittedly didn't watch his game but did read quite a few writeups on his performance. It sounded shaky at best. Gonzalez apparently got nicked up (again) but Collie went nuts in the slot.

I really like Garcon but he's already playing 3rd fiddle to Wayne and Clark. Now, Collie goes off and Peyton isn't going to throw 50+ times a game to give Pierre a ton of looks.

Is he sliding into WR #4 territory? I thought he was a steal in my 6th round and now I'm not so sure.

Futz said:

I admittedly didn't watch his game but did read quite a few writeups on his performance. It sounded shaky at best. Gonzalez apparently got nicked up (again) but Collie went nuts in the slot.I really like Garcon but he's already playing 3rd fiddle to Wayne and Clark. Now, Collie goes off and Peyton isn't going to throw 50+ times a game to give Pierre a ton of looks.Is he sliding into WR #4 territory? I thought he was a steal in my 6th round and now I'm not so sure.

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I was at the game and seemed like he was targeted quite often but dropped 2-3 easy catches (IIRC 1 for an easy TD). I wouldn't worry just yet. Some players have bad games.

Major said:

Futz said:

I admittedly didn't watch his game but did read quite a few writeups on his performance. It sounded shaky at best. Gonzalez apparently got nicked up (again) but Collie went nuts in the slot.I really like Garcon but he's already playing 3rd fiddle to Wayne and Clark. Now, Collie goes off and Peyton isn't going to throw 50+ times a game to give Pierre a ton of looks.Is he sliding into WR #4 territory? I thought he was a steal in my 6th round and now I'm not so sure.

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I was at the game and seemed like he was targeted quite often but dropped 2-3 easy catches (IIRC 1 for an easy TD). I wouldn't worry just yet. Some players have bad games.

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I wasn't overly concerned about the drops because he doesn't seem prone but the other circumstances are beginning to bug me.

The dropped TD pass pissed me off to no end. His concentration level seems to be off at times.

To answer your question, no. I am not worried. Not after one week. Also, I'd be shocked if Collie "replaces" him, mainly because Garcon is a bigger, outside receiver.

EDIT: I apologize. I think I took your question to mean would Collie literally replace him in the starting lineup. You're talking pecking order, yes?

Raider Nation said:

The dropped TD pass pissed me off to no end. His concentration level seems to be off at times.

To answer your question, no. I am not worried. Not after one week. Also, I'd be shocked if Collie "replaces" him, mainly because Garcon is a bigger, outside receiver.

EDIT: I apologize. I think I took your question to mean would Collie literally replace him in the starting lineup. You're talking pecking order, yes?

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Pecking order and circumstance are bugging me . His OLine seemed pretty vulnerable which could translate into more dump offs and shorter patterns which seem to favor Collie/Clark and even Addai.It's only one game but some flags are starting to wave a bit.

He had the same # of tagets as wayne they both had 10 collie 11 so no need to worry just yet

baldbird said:

He had the same # of tagets as wayne they both had 10 collie 11 so no need to worry just yet

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Yeah, that's a good point.

By my count he dropped two easy passes, one of which would have been a TD, and got his hands on two other passes that I don't think will be viewed as drops. Obviously that was bad but he also had some positives. He made a sensational catch near the goal line and than did a great job later in the game knocking the ball out of the defenders hand who otherwise had an easy pick.

There is no doubt Collie's stock is up and Clark is showing he's healthy and last year was no no fluke. From that drafts I've seen Collie is looking like the bargain but does not mean Garcon won't pay off. Peyton's not going to have that many pass attempts every week so expect some up and down games from the group which is why I was a little down on them as a whole. Not sure I can remember a game when in fantasy PPR scoring two receiving targets had over 30 fantasy points and a third went for over 20. That makes Garcon's 7.3 PPR game look terrible but again every week expect 1-2 of this group to have a bad game but than again if Garcon does not drop that TD he would have passed Reggie Wayne in any fantasy scoring format.

If you play the "what if" game Garcon dropped that easy TD that went to Wayne a few plays later. Garcon makes that catch he ends up 5 catches for 57 yards and a TD and Wayne ends up with 6 catches for 85 yards and no TD's and would have actually had two more targets than Wayne.

My belief is when the season is over Collie is going to be the best bargain of the group and Wayne the worst. Nothing shocking here as that's the way the second half of the season played out last year.

After one game I wouldn't be overly concerned about Garcon, Best, Mathews, MSW, Gore and a number of other players I hear people fretting about.

Garcon will be fine.

Collie got a lot of looks in this game because that's what the DEF gave Peyton. Plus Peyton and Garcon were having one of those games where they were inches from having a big game. If garcon makes 2 or 3 of those catches, Indy gets in the end zone and Collie never has the passes come his way.

It's week 1 people.

Garcon is a burner, and big body, and has great hands. He did make a great one handed grab in that game. Peyton came right back to him without hesitation after a drop.

I'm not worried. It's only ONE WEEK.

Not concerned yet.

Here is why...I was watching as he dropped several and thought, uh oh.

Then I saw Peyton still going straight back to him quite a bit.

If Peyton had really gone away from him the rest of the time, I might be worried.

But not yet.

No matter how you slice it, Wayne and Clark are always the 1 and 1A options. Garcon will have his games because the defenses will have to pick their poison but I wouldn't rely on a heavy number of targets each week. That game was one Indy normally doesn't have to play with all the passing. When they dictate their game, its usually more like 10 targets for Wayne, followed closely by clark, then 7 or so for Garcon.

All this adds up to inconsistency for Garcon. He is likely going to be steady or really good each week (I don't see him being a total non-factor at any time). So, I would love to have him as a flex but would hate to be relying on him every week as one of my starting WRs.

I'm hoping the drops are based in lack of concentration vs. bad hands. Concentration can be fixed, hands not so much. Either way he needs t step it up or Manning will stop looking his way.

War Eagle said:

Collie got a lot of looks in this game because that's what the DEF gave Peyton.

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It looked like the Texans left Collie wide open on some of his catches.

Tigerbot Hesh said:

War Eagle said:

Collie got a lot of looks in this game because that's what the DEF gave Peyton.

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It looked like the Texans left Collie wide open on some of his catches.

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Plus, Texans were giving away the underneath when they went up multiple scores. If and I repeat if the Colts defense pulls their head out of their keister then the Colts will be playing from in front like last year. That's a big "if" but Colts going down multiple touchdowns doesn't seem like commonplace to me yet. If the defense is truly as horrid as they looked Manning might set the single season passing record. Call me crazy but the man has the skills and weapons to throw for 5000 yards.

War Eagle said:

Garcon will be fine.

Collie got a lot of looks in this game because that's what the DEF gave Peyton. Plus Peyton and Garcon were having one of those games where they were inches from having a big game. If garcon makes 2 or 3 of those catches, Indy gets in the end zone and Collie never has the passes come his way.

It's week 1 people.

Garcon is a burner, and big body, and has great hands. He did make a great one handed grab in that game. Peyton came right back to him without hesitation after a drop.

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First off, for an NFL WR, Garcon does not, by any reasonable definition have great hands. His drops and catch % are proof. Actually, he has average to below-average hands. Yes, he make highlight reel catches occasionally - so does Braylon Edwards.

Secondly, the "he would have had a big game if it weren't for..." <insert dropped pass here>. Virtually any WR in the league can say that. The problem with Garcon is that the "near misses" are exactly the reason his value is lower than some think it should be. In FF you dont get any points for "almost TDs".

While it's true, Manning hasn't stopped looking to Garcon yet, if the crucial drops continue (3rd down and TDs are bad times to be dropping passes - and I beleive he had one of each in the last game) - and drops that lead to losses, Manning will start looking elsewhere.

The other issue with Garcon, apart from drops is pure catch % (i.e. targets/receptions) - his career catch % is right around 50% (as a point of comparison, Collie's last year was 67%, as was Wayne's - Clark's is obviously even higher -75%). The reason that is a major concern is that he needs more targets to equal either Collie or Wayne's production, as the higher yards/catch is almsot balanced out by the loss in number of catches per target.

An example - let's say Manning throws only 45 passes this coming week (instead of 57). For the sake of simplicity, let's assume the target distribution is as follows:

Wayne 10

Clark 8

Garcon 8

Collie 8

RBs and other targets: 11

Given all of their ypc averages from 2009 along with their catch % we get this:

Wayne 6.7 recptions for 84.42 yards

Clark 6 catches for 66.6 yards

Garcon 4.17 catches for 66.56 yards

Collie 5.36 catches for 60.56 yards.

Now this past week was actually much worse for Garcon statistically. His catch % was only 36%. But given the above example, even an "average" week for him statistically seems a long cry from the borderline studly numbers some have predicted...especially if he keeps dropping TDs as those TDs will go to someone else. All of that said, let's say for the sake of the discussion (a "worst case scenario" of sorts for Garcon owners) that in the coming weeks Manning starts to lose faith in him and targets him just a little less:

Wayne 10

Clark 10

Garcon 6

Collie 8

RBs and other targets:11

(basically, all I did was take 2 targets from Garcon and give them to Clark instead)

Wayne 6.7 receptions for 84.42 yards

Clark 7.5 catches for 83.25 yards

Garcon 3.12 catches for 50.85 yards

Collie 5.36 catches for 60.56 yards

Best case scenario? Garcon targeted more than anyone!!

Wayne 8

Clark 7

Garcon 11

Collie 8

RBs and other targets: 11

Wayne 6.7 receptions for 84.42 yards

Clark 5.25 catches for 58.28 yards

Garcon 5.72 catches for 93.23 yards

Collie 5.36 catches for 60.56 yards

Look at that! Garcon finally had more yards than Wayne!!! But wait...

First off, in PPR, its a wash. Secondly, drops are not figured into this equation. If Garcon were to drop 1 of the 5.72 "catches", his yardage total would drop to 76. In PPR that would still be about even with Collie & Clark (give or take a point and whether or not TE catches are weighted) and well below Wayne.

The point to all this ugly math? Even IF Garcon were targeted proportianally the same way he is now, given his low catch%, he deosn't outproduce Collie. If his looks go down or he continues to drop passes, he's the weakest WR play on the Colts, as he is the 4/5 option in terms of production (even if he is 3rd or 4th in terms of targets). If, in the unlikely scenario, his looks actually go up...he's still only marginally more productive than Collie.

In summary two things both have to happen for Garcon's production to increase appreciably going forward (presuming the Colts don't throw 57 times/game):

1) He has correct his drop problem (not even increase his catch% necessarily).

2) Get more targets.

While one or the other may happen in a given week, I don't see both correcting themselves anytime soon. And if #1 doesn't change, the opposite of #2 is likely to occur.

ETA: I do not own any Colts WR in any leagues I am in. I do own Manning, as such I keep a close eye on Indy's offense.

I was looking up Garcon's low catch % when this was posted. Wont do that now as I couldn't say it any better. I will say this, Gonzalez might find his much higher catch % back in the lineup if he can ever get healthy.

DoubleG said:

War Eagle said:

Garcon will be fine.

Collie got a lot of looks in this game because that's what the DEF gave Peyton. Plus Peyton and Garcon were having one of those games where they were inches from having a big game. If garcon makes 2 or 3 of those catches, Indy gets in the end zone and Collie never has the passes come his way.

It's week 1 people.

Garcon is a burner, and big body, and has great hands. He did make a great one handed grab in that game. Peyton came right back to him without hesitation after a drop.

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First off, for an NFL WR, Garcon does not, by any reasonable definition have great hands. His drops and catch % are proof. Actually, he has average to below-average hands. Yes, he make highlight reel catches occasionally - so does Braylon Edwards.

Secondly, the "he would have had a big game if it weren't for..." <insert dropped pass here>. Virtually any WR in the league can say that. The problem with Garcon is that the "near misses" are exactly the reason his value is lower than some think it should be. In FF you dont get any points for "almost TDs".

...

Many great points deleted for sake of limiting clutter.

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This is an outstanding analysis and the kinds of insights I look for on this message board. Thank you, DoubleG!

DoubleG said:

First off, for an NFL WR, Garcon does not, by any reasonable definition have great hands. His drops and catch % are proof. Actually, he has average to below-average hands. Yes, he make highlight reel catches occasionally - so does Braylon Edwards.

...Even IF Garcon were targeted proportianally the same way he is now, given his low catch%, he deosn't outproduce Collie. If his looks go down or he continues to drop passes, he's the weakest WR play on the Colts, as he is the 4/5 option in terms of production (even if he is 3rd or 4th in terms of targets). If, in the unlikely scenario, his looks actually go up...he's still only marginally more productive than Collie.

In summary two things both have to happen for Garcon's production to increase appreciably going forward (presuming the Colts don't throw 57 times/game):

1) He has correct his drop problem (not even increase his catch% necessarily).

2) Get more targets.

While one or the other may happen in a given week, I don't see both correcting themselves anytime soon. And if #1 doesn't change, the opposite of #2 is likely to occur.

ETA: I do not own any Colts WR in any leagues I am in. I do own Manning, as such I keep a close eye on Indy's offense.

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Over-react much? It's only one week amigo, and Garcon made an incredible one handed grab in the same game that you're citing as evidence of below average to average hands. Anthony Borbely has shown that Garcon's catch % dramatically improved by season's end last year, and I've also covered this catch % argument with you ad nauseum (as have others in the dynasty thread). He's an explosive young player still maturing and learning this offense and developing a rapport with his QB, and Garcon is asked to make big plays down the field that are at a higher degree of difficulty, rather than the higher percentage targets that Collie sees. I guess based on a natural progression of your logic, then Garcon's predecessor, Marvin Harrison, must be one of the worst future HOFers ever because his catch % wasn't as good as Collie's or Gonzalez's either...

Speaking of dropped passes, again this only based on ONE WEEK, but here's the current league leaders in dropped passes .

Wow I guess Ray Rice and Kevin Faulk must have stone hands too as they're tied with Pierre and several others with two drops. And uh oh, don't look now but if you were excited to have Mark Clayton or Hakeem Nicks on your fantasy teams, better rethink that because they obviously can't even catch a cold either, right? They both have two drops as well. Better hurry up and trade them away before another owner looks at the league leader in drops!

Obviously the first week from 2010 is a ridiculously small sample size, and probably not of much predictive value. But what about a late season example from a couple years ago to illustrate the usefulness of relying upon league leader stats in dropped passes as evidence of 'bad hands' or for predictive value. Here's a snapshot from Dec. 30, 2007

1t Dallas Clark Ind 12 1t Braylon Edwards Cle 12 3t Reggie Bush NO 10 3t Devery Henderson NO 10 3t Santana Moss Was 10 3t Terrell Owens Dal 10 7t Randy Moss NE 9 7t Brian Westbrook Phi 9 9t Brandon Jacobs NYG 8 9t Brandon Marshall Den 8 9t Shaun McDonald Det 8 9t Steve Smith Car 8 9t Kellen Winslow Cle 8 14t Marty Booker Mia 7 14t Desmond Clark Chi 7 14t Ronald Curry Oak 7 14t Warrick Dunn Atl 7 14t Anthony Gonzalez Ind 7 14t Frank Gore SF 7 14t Earnest Graham TB 7 14t T.J. Houshmandzadeh Cin 7 14t Darrell Jackson SF 7 14t Chad Johnson Cin 7 14t Amani Toomer NYG 7Notice who leads the list tied for first with Braylon Edwards?That's Dallas Clark, the current 1b or 2nd option in the mighty Colts offense. I guess Peyton Manning was so pissed and lacked so much confidence in Clark from dropping passes, that we never heard from him again after the 2007 season, right?

Oh and let's see who else can't catch the football... Well there's Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, Brian Westbrook, Steve Smiff, and OMG who is that tied at 14th with Frank Gore and Chad Johnson!?!?

SAY IT AINT SO! Why yes! It's Anthony Gonzalez!!!!

I guess now we know why that Gonzo guy can't make it back onto the field, injury - shminjury, those guys can't fool us! I'm sure it must be because he dropped so many passes early in his career that Manning just never could get back to trusting him again, right?

Geoff, Double G laid out his case using Garcon's career catch %. Which is the relevant number.

We're not saying that can't get better but you have to admit it's in the Chris Chambers neighborhood. Not good.

This is with Peyton throwing to him, not some schmuck.

Your post on the other hand bounces between week 1, 2010 and final stats 2007. This is some serious cherry picking. You ignore 2008 and 2009. Unless I'm missing something this is a very flawed data set.

the touchdown drop was wrong technique so that can be coached up

he tried to catch that ball above his head thumbs out which is a no-no technique-wise if he gets his thumbs in it's and easy TD

hook014 said:

Geoff, Double G laid out his case using Garcon's career catch %. Which is the relevant number.We're not saying that can't get better but you have to admit it's in the Chris Chambers neighborhood. Not good.This is with Peyton throwing to him, not some schmuck.Your post on the other hand bounces between week 1, 2010 and final stats 2007. This is some serious cherry picking. You ignore 2008 and 2009. Unless I'm missing something this is a very flawed data set.

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Garcon only has the 2009 season and one game of the 2010 season to draw upon, and his catch % in the last several games including playoffs was well over 60%. Also, I did watch a portion of the Colts 1st game against the Texans and there is no doubt that some of the passes thrown Garcon's way are MUCH more difficult to catch than the routes that Collie and Clark are often asked to haul in. And as accurate as Peyton can be, I clearly saw him overthrow Garcon on some of those targets (possibly throwing the ball away in some situations?).So I would say it's WAY TOO EARLY to label Garcon as the next Chris Chambers, although you are very perceptive in identifying the potential danger that presents itself for those who are too high on Garcon right now. We won't know for at least another season or two whether Garcon's up and down catch % has just been part of the learning curve of going from division III college football to starting WR and focal point in the Colts offense, or if he is just the next Chris Chambers...I've never claimed to have any crystal ball or know for certain what the future holds for Garcon, and whether he will become a successful top receiving option in the Colts offense, but I do know that the WR position often requires 2-3 years development. Keep in mind this is basically his 2nd season right now (essentially red-shirted rookie season), so we should have a better idea by season's end and be in a much better position to make predictions for what type of career path he will take. However, Manning and the Colts like his explosive talent and potential, so as long as they continue to try to develop him and make him a focal point of the offense, then I do like his odds and will continue to hold him on my dynasty roster. I don't recommend anyone go out and "break the bank" for him, but their is precedence for slow development within the Manning-led Colts offense. OTOH, I certainly wouldn't bury him after a bad week or two in 2010, and if his owner is panicked you might be able to get him on the cheap.DoubleG also referred to Garcon's dropped passes as evidence of bad hands and possibly holding predictive value as to what future role Garcon would most likely face as a result. The relevance of 2007 stats is that it shows us the danger of relying upon dropped passes as a predictive tool. When you see that Dallas Clark was a league leader in dropped passes just prior to becoming one of the best fantasy TEs in the NFL, then it is clear that dropped passes didn't cause Manning to stop throwing passes his way or for Clark's development/growht to become stunted. Quite the opposite in fact!

I understand the issues with Garcon's catch percentage, but people keep ignoring the fact that last year was his first year with any significant amount of snaps. He came from Mount Union, I believe D-III. I guess people are assuming he cannot make a step forward in his progress as an NFL WR? Add that to the fact that he practiced/played sparingly during preseason due to an injury. I am not sure why everyone is so quick to jump ro conclusions on this one. I am not assuming that he will surpass Wayne and Clark, but there will be plenty of balls left for him after that. If Manning didn't give up on him after his struggles on Sunday, then I see no reason for me to, or any other owner for that matter.

Comparing Garcon's catch percentage to Collie and Clark is like comparing apples and oranges. He is a deep threat and they both do most of their damage underneath. Nobody seems to have any problem with DeSean Jackson's 51% in 2008 and 53% in 2009. That would be apples to apples.

geoff8695 said:

hook014 said:

Geoff, Double G laid out his case using Garcon's career catch %. Which is the relevant number.We're not saying that can't get better but you have to admit it's in the Chris Chambers neighborhood. Not good.This is with Peyton throwing to him, not some schmuck.Your post on the other hand bounces between week 1, 2010 and final stats 2007. This is some serious cherry picking. You ignore 2008 and 2009. Unless I'm missing something this is a very flawed data set.

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Garcon only has the 2009 season and one game of the 2010 season to draw upon, and his catch % in the last several games including playoffs was well over 60%. Also, I did watch a portion of the Colts 1st game against the Texans and there is no doubt that some of the passes thrown Garcon's way are MUCH more difficult to catch than the routes that Collie and Clark are often asked to haul in. And as accurate as Peyton can be, I clearly saw him overthrow Garcon on some of those targets (possibly throwing the ball away in some situations?).So I would say it's WAY TOO EARLY to label Garcon as the next Chris Chambers, although you are very perceptive in identifying the potential danger that presents itself for those who are too high on Garcon right now. We won't know for at least another season or two whether Garcon's up and down catch % has just been part of the learning curve of going from division III college football to starting WR and focal point in the Colts offense, or if he is just the next Chris Chambers...I've never claimed to have any crystal ball or know for certain what the future holds for Garcon, and whether he will become a successful top receiving option in the Colts offense, but I do know that the WR position often requires 2-3 years development. Keep in mind this is basically his 2nd season right now (essentially red-shirted rookie season), so we should have a better idea by season's end and be in a much better position to make predictions for what type of career path he will take. However, Manning and the Colts like his explosive talent and potential, so as long as they continue to try to develop him and make him a focal point of the offense, then I do like his odds and will continue to hold him on my dynasty roster. I don't recommend anyone go out and "break the bank" for him, but their is precedence for slow development within the Manning-led Colts offense. OTOH, I certainly wouldn't bury him after a bad week or two in 2010, and if his owner is panicked you might be able to get him on the cheap.DoubleG also referred to Garcon's dropped passes as evidence of bad hands and possibly holding predictive value as to what future role Garcon would most likely face as a result. The relevance of 2007 stats is that it shows us the danger of relying upon dropped passes as a predictive tool. When you see that Dallas Clark was a league leader in dropped passes just prior to becoming one of the best fantasy TEs in the NFL, then it is clear that dropped passes didn't cause Manning to stop throwing passes his way or for Clark's development/growht to become stunted. Quite the opposite in fact!

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You make your point far better here and I can appreciate that point. I'm not down on Garcon and would love to have him on my dynasty roster, just missed him in my startup this year.I remember last year a long thread about Garcon vs Gonzalez with the main point being Pierre's low catch rate. Something to be aware of going forward.Getting new info is what this place is about and this is a good thread to get it. Cheers.

hook014 said:

You make your point far better here and I can appreciate that point. I'm not down on Garcon and would love to have him on my dynasty roster, just missed him in my startup this year.

I remember last year a long thread about Garcon vs Gonzalez with the main point being Pierre's low catch rate. Something to be aware of going forward.

Getting new info is what this place is about and this is a good thread to get it. Cheers.

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Futz said:

I admittedly didn't watch his game but did read quite a few writeups on his performance. It sounded shaky at best. Gonzalez apparently got nicked up (again) but Collie went nuts in the slot.I really like Garcon but he's already playing 3rd fiddle to Wayne and Clark. Now, Collie goes off and Peyton isn't going to throw 50+ times a game to give Pierre a ton of looks.Is he sliding into WR #4 territory? I thought he was a steal in my 6th round and now I'm not so sure.

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What kind of numbers were you expecting out of him then I can answer your question.

Garcon does the one thing none of the other Colt WR's are not equipped to do: go deep. He of course is not Marvin Harrison but he runs a lot of those same deep routes. He was 7th in the league last year in plays over 25 yards and that's w/ missing 3 games. I think Wayne was way down on that list. Garcon for sure is their designated field-stretcher.

Todem said:

Futz said:

I admittedly didn't watch his game but did read quite a few writeups on his performance. It sounded shaky at best. Gonzalez apparently got nicked up (again) but Collie went nuts in the slot.I really like Garcon but he's already playing 3rd fiddle to Wayne and Clark. Now, Collie goes off and Peyton isn't going to throw 50+ times a game to give Pierre a ton of looks.Is he sliding into WR #4 territory? I thought he was a steal in my 6th round and now I'm not so sure.

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What kind of numbers were you expecting out of him then I can answer your question.

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The thread has certainly produced some interesting and valuable posts. To address your question, look, I fully understand the WR position and how erratic it can be. I wasn't assuming any #s out of him. I'm by no means jumping off the ledge here. It's one game yada yada but I do see the potential for a troubling future for him based on the evidence mentioned. Especially when you see just how low his catch %s are.I just think he better get his act together. I think the Indy situation could become real combustible if Manning isn't winning.

Now, I'm not saying "I told you so" or anything like that but there were a couple of other points I thought should be addressed.

First, the "Garcon is the deep threat that no on else is" idea. First off, Garcon and Gonzalez (before he was hurt) are virtually the same speed (they were within .01 of a second in 40 times). In the 2007 version of the big play list, Reggie Wayne is #1. The top 20 in 2009 also included Gates tied for 10th and included Driver, Cotchery and Hines Ward, none of whom is known for their deep speed (well, not anymore). Second, as you would suspect but what I just said, the list of big plays is not necessarily indicative of speed - guys like Antonio Gates and several RBs usually fall in the top 20 in that category - some of it has to do with YAC.

Secondly, while it may seem that I was focusing on drops, it's also his poor catch % combined with low target numbers that is the issue. As you see here:

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/teamyear.ph...10&team=IND

Garcon is 4th in terms of receiver targets on the Colts after two weeks. Becuase of his low catch % he is a very distant 4th in terms of reception...unless you include Addai - in which case he drops to 5th in receptions (but hangs on to 4th in terms of targets at 12 vs. 9).

Now the other area of concern for Garcon owners - targets. With his low catch %, he would need to see an increase in targets to increase output significantly. Obviously, he saw quite a drastic decrease in targets this week. On the positive side, he did catch 1 of the 2 targets (which is close to his catch % rate). The Colts were also leading most of the game. The point here is, that if you suspect week 1 target distribution (and 57 attempts) to be more the norm as you may suspect the Colts trailing more often than winning, then Garcon should be okay the rest of the season. However, to my way of thinking, week 2 should be a stronger indication for concern, as I think the Colts will be playing with a lead more often than they will be trailing. If that is the case, than week 2 distribution should be more the norm (not exactly - I obviously think Garcon will have more than 2 targets/a game - I just mean to suggest that his target #s may very well be lower if the Colts are ahead).

All of that said, two weeks of poor fantasy performance for Garcon in games where Manning has gone 60-83 for 688 yards and 6 TDs - and threw more to Wayne, Clark, and Collie, would seem to indicate a disturbing trend. Specifically that Garcon is the 4th passing option on the Colts. Not only that, but when Manning actually does look his way, he's only hauling in about half the targets. I'd like him in a best ball league, but currently he is not even startable in many leagues.

Double G,

I'm not looking at stats - but Garcon runs alot of deep routes on that team, more than even Wayne . . . Collie gets all the stuff inside - so their clockled time is less relevant - Garcon goes deep often and gets separation . . .

you arre right about his hands - they are inconsistent at best . . .

still, this discussion is fantasy based , so here goes . . .

my analysis is that Garcon still has a lock on Harrison's old spot (WR on the right side) especially since Gonzalez is out for awhile . . .

IMO he is still a weekly play, especially when you compare his potential to his possible replacements on your team . . . I am an owner and I am starting him with confidence . . .

Remember, he still has Manning throwing to him, and 97% of the receivers in the league can't say that . . .

BTW - GREAT thread . . .

(RotoWire) Garcon was limited in practice Wednesday due to a hamstring injury, the team's official web site reports. Analysis: He had just one reception for 11 yards last week, but an injury didn't appear to be a factor. This is likely minor, but watch his status later in the week.

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Just a little more fuel to the Garcon fire . . .

I don't understand all the alarm just yet either. He had 11 targets in the first week! Collie had a great game, but seems a lil premature to assume Garcon is a bottom feeder because of one week.

GoinDeep said:

I don't understand all the alarm just yet either. He had 11 targets in the first week! Collie had a great game, but seems a lil premature to assume Garcon is a bottom feeder because of one week.

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Ummm....it's two weeks.ETA: And he had 11 targets in a week 1 that saw Manning throw the ball 57 times. He's averaging 6.5 target per game. Given his catch %, that's about 3 catches per game.

GoinDeep said:

I don't understand all the alarm just yet either. He had 11 targets in the first week! Collie had a great game, but seems a lil premature to assume Garcon is a bottom feeder because of one week.

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The premise of the thread was a genuine concern that although Garcon did see 11 targets game 1, it's what he did with those 11 targets that could make things dicey for his immediate future. A week later, he gets 2 targets as the starting flanker in an Indy offense. You are doing yourself a disservice with blind faith here.If things don't start to improve, Garcon owners should be considering a shark move to get Gonzalez in the not too distant future before other league members start to get a whiff of what's happpening.

Does anyone else other then me feel confident starting Garcon this week. I feel like this week is his last shot untill he sits on my bench. Its all or nothing.

Here is some reasoning why I believe Garcon will be money this week.

1.) Baily is very overlooked. He is clearly a top 3 corner as of now and WILL limit Wayne's targets this week.

2.) Garcon will be utilized in the slot and will make some huge plays against their number 3 corner.

3.) Denver has always kept a close game with Indi, and i dont see this game getting out of hand. I see Manning throwing 30 + in this contest.

Last year Manning threw 43 attempts against the Broncos, with Wayne only getting 4 catches for 43.

I'm giving Garcon one more chance.

Bailey may not even play this weekend . . .

Garcon was only targeted 2 times against the NYG. If you watched the game, then you know that Giants often times only had one linebacker in, and dared the Colts to run the ball; and subsequently Indy ran the ball quite a bit. Also, Wayne and Clark had great games, and Collie caught a TD making his day. There are only so many footballs to go around... Manning is good at taking what is presented by the defense, there will be games where that works against Garcon and other games where that works to Garcon's advantage.

Speed, Hands, Catch %, # of Targets - Meh...

Garcon still has Harrison's old role on a Peyton Manning led Indianapolis Colts offense. That has value, and the fact that this is just his 2nd year in the role means that he has some time to mature and improve. The first two games and 11 total targets isn't going to answer the kinds of questions we have about his future in Indy. Honestly, I'm not interested in arguing about his catch % or whether or not he's the fastest WR on the team; I'm not interested in making apples to oranges comparisons between slot receivers and flankers; and I'm certainly not interested in coming back in here every week to engage in "I told you so's - Did you see what he did/didn't do this week?!"

Garcon is without a doubt a talented and explosive talent, Indy knows that and that's why he's their starting flanker. What remains to be seen is whether or not he can grow into the role that helped fuel Marvin Harrison's HOF career. Two games is too small of a sample size to do anything more than "See. See. I told you so!" Let's see how the season goes and whether or not Garcon continues the maturation process. As I side earlier in this thread WRs generally need 2-3 years of seasoning, by year's end we can make a much more educated guess as to what career path Garcon may be headed down. Obviously there is always the risk that it is a Chris Chambers like path, but alternatively he could be the next Andre Reed, a comparison his own general manager made just last year...

geoff8695 said:

Garcon was only targeted 2 times against the NYG. If you watched the game, then you know that Giants often times only had one linebacker in, and dared the Colts to run the ball; and subsequently Indy ran the ball quite a bit. Also, Wayne and Clark had great games, and Collie caught a TD making his day. There are only so many footballs to go around... Manning is good at taking what is presented by the defense, there will be games where that works against Garcon and other games where that works to Garcon's advantage.

Speed, Hands, Catch %, # of Targets - Meh...

Garcon still has Harrison's old role on a Peyton Manning led Indianapolis Colts offense. That has value, and the fact that this is just his 2nd year in the role means that he has some time to mature and improve. The first two games and 11 total targets isn't going to answer the kinds of questions we have about his future in Indy. Honestly, I'm not interested in arguing about his catch % or whether or not he's the fastest WR on the team; I'm not interested in making apples to oranges comparisons between slot receivers and flankers; and I'm certainly not interested in coming back in here every week to engage in "I told you so's - Did you see what he did/didn't do this week?!"

Garcon is without a doubt a talented and explosive talent, Indy knows that and that's why he's their starting flanker. What remains to be seen is whether or not he can grow into the role that helped fuel Marvin Harrison's HOF career. Two games is too small of a sample size to do anything more than "See. See. I told you so!" Let's see how the season goes and whether or not Garcon continues the maturation process. As I side earlier in this thread WRs generally need 2-3 years of seasoning, by year's end we can make a much more educated guess as to what career path Garcon may be headed down. Obviously there is always the risk that it is a Chris Chambers like path, but alternatively he could be the next Andre Reed, a comparison his own general manager made just last year...

Click to expand...

I don't see any "I told you so's" going on here. We are following the evidence trail as it progresses. Look, if you are more of a keep playing a player till the wheels fall off type of person, have at it, but don't come into an analysis thread and criticize why we are paying attention to some tell tale signs of potential futility. Some here feel there's reason to be concerned. If you are not, then carry on my wayward son.

DaMenace18 said:

Does anyone else other then me feel confident starting Garcon this week. I feel like this week is his last shot untill he sits on my bench. Its all or nothing.Here is some reasoning why I believe Garcon will be money this week.1.) Baily is very overlooked. He is clearly a top 3 corner as of now and WILL limit Wayne's targets this week. 2.) Garcon will be utilized in the slot and will make some huge plays against their number 3 corner.3.) Denver has always kept a close game with Indi, and i dont see this game getting out of hand. I see Manning throwing 30 + in this contest.Last year Manning threw 43 attempts against the Broncos, with Wayne only getting 4 catches for 43. I'm giving Garcon one more chance.

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I think you have some sound reasoning for playing him if you need to. His real value to me will be during bye weeks so I'll be watching this week close.

Futz said:

geoff8695 said:

Garcon was only targeted 2 times against the NYG. If you watched the game, then you know that Giants often times only had one linebacker in, and dared the Colts to run the ball; and subsequently Indy ran the ball quite a bit. Also, Wayne and Clark had great games, and Collie caught a TD making his day. There are only so many footballs to go around... Manning is good at taking what is presented by the defense, there will be games where that works against Garcon and other games where that works to Garcon's advantage.

Speed, Hands, Catch %, # of Targets - Meh...

Garcon still has Harrison's old role on a Peyton Manning led Indianapolis Colts offense. That has value, and the fact that this is just his 2nd year in the role means that he has some time to mature and improve. The first two games and 11 total targets isn't going to answer the kinds of questions we have about his future in Indy. Honestly, I'm not interested in arguing about his catch % or whether or not he's the fastest WR on the team; I'm not interested in making apples to oranges comparisons between slot receivers and flankers; and I'm certainly not interested in coming back in here every week to engage in "I told you so's - Did you see what he did/didn't do this week?!"

Garcon is without a doubt a talented and explosive talent, Indy knows that and that's why he's their starting flanker. What remains to be seen is whether or not he can grow into the role that helped fuel Marvin Harrison's HOF career. Two games is too small of a sample size to do anything more than "See. See. I told you so!" Let's see how the season goes and whether or not Garcon continues the maturation process. As I side earlier in this thread WRs generally need 2-3 years of seasoning, by year's end we can make a much more educated guess as to what career path Garcon may be headed down. Obviously there is always the risk that it is a Chris Chambers like path, but alternatively he could be the next Andre Reed, a comparison his own general manager made just last year...

Click to expand...

I don't see any "I told you so's" going on here. We are following the evidence trail as it progresses. Look, if you are more of a keep playing a player till the wheels fall off type of person, have at it, but don't come into an analysis thread and criticize why we are paying attention to some tell tale signs of potential futility. Some here feel there's reason to be concerned. If you are not, then carry on my wayward son.

Click to expand...

Really? Following the evidence trail as it progresses?So 2 targets against the Giants in a game where the Colts ran the ball a lot because the defense invited them to, and even so the offense still supported 3 targets in the passing game, tells you all you all the sgns of potential futility you need to know to assess Garcon?

If so, then methinks you already had made up your mind going into this game.

If you paid attention to my entire post I did address some of the questions that give a cause for concern, at least as best as anyone can answer them just two games into Garcon's 2nd season as a starter. None of the information posted so far this week (based on Monday's game) brought new info. to the discussion, and I certainly wasn't trying to criticize anyone who may be concerned. In fact, I have acknowledged that there is some reason for concern, but I don't think making long-term decisions based on such a small sample size is justified or does any good. So I expressed my opinion that we need to see more. I didn't just come into a thread about Garcon and start peeing all over the place. You may not have liked what I had to say but I did contribute to the discussion.

Synopsis:

Garcon still has value based on his role = Flanker on Manning-led Colts is valuable

He's not a finished product yet = 1 year + 2 games of NFL experience isn't enough to make a final decision on Garcon's career path

Don't be reactionary showing up every week to argue why he sucks = Talk to me at the end of the season, rather than a weekly "I told you so!"

Garcon comes with some risk, but has some serious upside as well = he could be a Chris Chambers clone... or he could be an Andre Reed type...

Don't talk to me right now about catch % and targets in 'week two' = Catch % & targets at end of 'year two' is more telling than catch % at end of week two

Telling you my opinion that we need to see more before making a decision does not equate to riding a player until the wheels fall off. We are talking about a 2nd year WR who went from playing Division III college ball to taking over a HOFer's role in possibly the most WR friendly offense to ever exist in the history of the NFL. Telling you to not judge his future based on a little over one year of work is not being critical of others who have been trying to argue that Garcon sucks for almost a year now. Rather it's just some good advice, and I felt it was worthy of posting in this thread for owners trying to make sense of Garcon going forward. Sorry if you disagree...

duaneok66 said:

Bailey may not even play this weekend . . .

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Anything new on the status of Bailey and Goodman for Sunday?If those two are out (although I bet they try to play), Peyton could throw for 450+ yards. Of course, Wayne is likely to get a big chunk if Bailey doesn't play, which may not be good for Garcon owners.Probably the best hope for Garcon owners is Bailey playing and covering Wayne, because Peyton is likely to avoid Bailey like he has over the years. When Bailey used to cover Marvin, Wayne went crazy. Last year, however, it was Dallas Clark who went crazy with three TDs when Bailey covered Wayne.

geoff8695 said:

Futz said:

geoff8695 said:

Garcon was only targeted 2 times against the NYG. If you watched the game, then you know that Giants often times only had one linebacker in, and dared the Colts to run the ball; and subsequently Indy ran the ball quite a bit. Also, Wayne and Clark had great games, and Collie caught a TD making his day. There are only so many footballs to go around... Manning is good at taking what is presented by the defense, there will be games where that works against Garcon and other games where that works to Garcon's advantage.

Speed, Hands, Catch %, # of Targets - Meh...

Garcon still has Harrison's old role on a Peyton Manning led Indianapolis Colts offense. That has value, and the fact that this is just his 2nd year in the role means that he has some time to mature and improve. The first two games and 11 total targets isn't going to answer the kinds of questions we have about his future in Indy. Honestly, I'm not interested in arguing about his catch % or whether or not he's the fastest WR on the team; I'm not interested in making apples to oranges comparisons between slot receivers and flankers; and I'm certainly not interested in coming back in here every week to engage in "I told you so's - Did you see what he did/didn't do this week?!"

Garcon is without a doubt a talented and explosive talent, Indy knows that and that's why he's their starting flanker. What remains to be seen is whether or not he can grow into the role that helped fuel Marvin Harrison's HOF career. Two games is too small of a sample size to do anything more than "See. See. I told you so!" Let's see how the season goes and whether or not Garcon continues the maturation process. As I side earlier in this thread WRs generally need 2-3 years of seasoning, by year's end we can make a much more educated guess as to what career path Garcon may be headed down. Obviously there is always the risk that it is a Chris Chambers like path, but alternatively he could be the next Andre Reed, a comparison his own general manager made just last year...

Click to expand...

I don't see any "I told you so's" going on here. We are following the evidence trail as it progresses. Look, if you are more of a keep playing a player till the wheels fall off type of person, have at it, but don't come into an analysis thread and criticize why we are paying attention to some tell tale signs of potential futility. Some here feel there's reason to be concerned. If you are not, then carry on my wayward son.

Click to expand...

Really? Following the evidence trail as it progresses?So 2 targets against the Giants in a game where the Colts ran the ball a lot because the defense invited them to, and even so the offense still supported 3 targets in the passing game, tells you all you all the sgns of potential futility you need to know to assess Garcon?

Click to expand...

This was only a portion of the evidence, the rest you decidely dismissed, remember?

Speed, Hands, Catch %, # of Targets - Meh...

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Now listen, you are more than allowed to have an opposing opinion. That's what this is all about, but it seems you want to dismiss everyone's concerns as "too early to tell" based on Garcon 2009. That's fine, not everyone agrees. I've seen too many WRs have great rookie seasons only to fade into the oblivion. Again, We are just observing, chatting, and trying to be ahead of the game should Indy make a move to Gonzalez. That's the point. To forecast what could potentially happen in order to gain an edge on the other managers in your league. The part that bothers me about your posts is that you are making blanket statements that just are not true. No one is calling Garcon done or bad. No one is saying "I told you so" here. We are simply paying attention and gathering evidence. Step away from the ledge.

I'm starting to hate him. I've isolated him on my bench and won't let my other players interact with him. Plus he couldn't make it out to practice today.

Two Deep said:

I'm starting to hate him. I've isolated him on my bench and won't let my other players interact with him.

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Their catch % is sure to go down if they do.

Pierre didnt even practice today . . .

since Gonzelez is out, does that mean that Thomas? (I think thats the WR5 there) starts???

Futz said:

Two Deep said:

I'm starting to hate him. I've isolated him on my bench and won't let my other players interact with him.

Click to expand...

Their catch % is sure to go down if they do.

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Have you been to his Website? He has an e-mail you can contact him at. I'm considering sending him a note reminding him that he is a wide receiver which means he is supposed to actually catch the ball. Tell him to look the ball in prior to running or making moves, you know the basics. Let him know I hold him responsible for both of my loses.

purestrength said:

duaneok66 said:

Bailey may not even play this weekend . . .

Click to expand...

Anything new on the status of Bailey and Goodman for Sunday?If those two are out (although I bet they try to play), Peyton could throw for 450+ yards. Of course, Wayne is likely to get a big chunk if Bailey doesn't play, which may not be good for Garcon owners.Probably the best hope for Garcon owners is Bailey playing and covering Wayne, because Peyton is likely to avoid Bailey like he has over the years. When Bailey used to cover Marvin, Wayne went crazy. Last year, however, it was Dallas Clark who went crazy with three TDs when Bailey covered Wayne.

Click to expand...

Im almost positive Bailey only plays one side of the field and that side is usually the right side of the QB. And Im almost positive Wayne takes most of his snaps on the left side of the QB. Meaning Bailey would be mostly covering Garcon.

geoff8695 said:

Futz said:

geoff8695 said:

Garcon was only targeted 2 times against the NYG. If you watched the game, then you know that Giants often times only had one linebacker in, and dared the Colts to run the ball; and subsequently Indy ran the ball quite a bit. Also, Wayne and Clark had great games, and Collie caught a TD making his day. There are only so many footballs to go around... Manning is good at taking what is presented by the defense, there will be games where that works against Garcon and other games where that works to Garcon's advantage.

Speed, Hands, Catch %, # of Targets - Meh...

Garcon still has Harrison's old role on a Peyton Manning led Indianapolis Colts offense. That has value, and the fact that this is just his 2nd year in the role means that he has some time to mature and improve. The first two games and 11 total targets isn't going to answer the kinds of questions we have about his future in Indy. Honestly, I'm not interested in arguing about his catch % or whether or not he's the fastest WR on the team; I'm not interested in making apples to oranges comparisons between slot receivers and flankers; and I'm certainly not interested in coming back in here every week to engage in "I told you so's - Did you see what he did/didn't do this week?!"

Garcon is without a doubt a talented and explosive talent, Indy knows that and that's why he's their starting flanker. What remains to be seen is whether or not he can grow into the role that helped fuel Marvin Harrison's HOF career. Two games is too small of a sample size to do anything more than "See. See. I told you so!" Let's see how the season goes and whether or not Garcon continues the maturation process. As I side earlier in this thread WRs generally need 2-3 years of seasoning, by year's end we can make a much more educated guess as to what career path Garcon may be headed down. Obviously there is always the risk that it is a Chris Chambers like path, but alternatively he could be the next Andre Reed, a comparison his own general manager made just last year...

Click to expand...

I don't see any "I told you so's" going on here. We are following the evidence trail as it progresses. Look, if you are more of a keep playing a player till the wheels fall off type of person, have at it, but don't come into an analysis thread and criticize why we are paying attention to some tell tale signs of potential futility. Some here feel there's reason to be concerned. If you are not, then carry on my wayward son.

Click to expand...

Really? Following the evidence trail as it progresses?So 2 targets against the Giants in a game where the Colts ran the ball a lot because the defense invited them to, and even so the offense still supported 3 targets in the passing game, tells you all you all the sgns of potential futility you need to know to assess Garcon?

If so, then methinks you already had made up your mind going into this game.

If you paid attention to my entire post I did address some of the questions that give a cause for concern, at least as best as anyone can answer them just two games into Garcon's 2nd season as a starter. None of the information posted so far this week (based on Monday's game) brought new info. to the discussion, and I certainly wasn't trying to criticize anyone who may be concerned. In fact, I have acknowledged that there is some reason for concern, but I don't think making long-term decisions based on such a small sample size is justified or does any good. So I expressed my opinion that we need to see more. I didn't just come into a thread about Garcon and start peeing all over the place. You may not have liked what I had to say but I did contribute to the discussion.

Synopsis:

Garcon still has value based on his role = Flanker on Manning-led Colts is valuable

He's not a finished product yet = 1 year + 2 games of NFL experience isn't enough to make a final decision on Garcon's career path

Don't be reactionary showing up every week to argue why he sucks = Talk to me at the end of the season, rather than a weekly "I told you so!"

Garcon comes with some risk, but has some serious upside as well = he could be a Chris Chambers clone... or he could be an Andre Reed type...

Don't talk to me right now about catch % and targets in 'week two' = Catch % & targets at end of 'year two' is more telling than catch % at end of week two

Telling you my opinion that we need to see more before making a decision does not equate to riding a player until the wheels fall off. We are talking about a 2nd year WR who went from playing Division III college ball to taking over a HOFer's role in possibly the most WR friendly offense to ever exist in the history of the NFL. Telling you to not judge his future based on a little over one year of work is not being critical of others who have been trying to argue that Garcon sucks for almost a year now. Rather it's just some good advice, and I felt it was worthy of posting in this thread for owners trying to make sense of Garcon going forward. Sorry if you disagree...

Click to expand...

You keep argueing that since Garcon plays flanker he has a chance at carrying Marvin harrison's mantle. There's 2 things you are conveniently ignoring with that arguement.

1. Harrison was an All-Time great WR and while it's still too early to definitively say if garcon is or isn't that good, the odds are against it.

2. The flanker role in this offense has changed considerably since 2006 when Harrison was the leading WR on the team. The emergence of Dallas Clark has placed less of an emphasis on the importance of the flanker. In 2006 Clark only caught 30 balls. From that point on he's caught 58, 77, and 100 and his TDs spiked from 4-5 a year to about 9 a year the last 3 years.

In short, Garcon is neither as taleneted as you're arguing, nor is his opportunity as nice as you would have us believe.

i had him last season and i watched him make the most outrageous flatout drops that were worse than anyone else in the league besides terrel owens. unfortunately for garcon owners he is nowhere near as talented as owens in other aspects. will be surprised if gonzalez is not the starter next year