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Vick a 1st Round fantasy pick next year? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter thehornet
- Start date
bostonfred
Footballguy
A firsty?
aimlessgun
Footballguy
Considering Rodgers was a first round pick this year, Vick should be next year. This year has also been pretty mediocre for non-QB first round picks, so people won't be as resistant to the idea.
Wow, i can't believe that this is even a consideration. I was debating whether to keep Vick on my keeper league a few weeks ago (we keep 6 at no cost), and now some people think he is a 1st round pick? WOW! BTW, I've decided to go ahead and keep him for next year, lol.
He is great, but I wouldn't take him in the 1st for redrafts. I would say that a pick in the late teens or early 20's seems about right. In the first i wouldn't pick a QB in any draft. Throughout the year you always get gems at QB it seems. In this league i'm debating on whether i should keep Vick, I drafted Farve. He was dropped after week 1 or 2. I picked up Vick and Orton on that team. If you could get such gems on the WW, i think the 1st round is best restrcted to WRs first and RBs second depending on your pick. Late in the 1st, i would go 100% with WRs, early in the 1st probably RBs depending on who is left. I don't see where i could take Vick in the 1st.
He is great, but I wouldn't take him in the 1st for redrafts. I would say that a pick in the late teens or early 20's seems about right. In the first i wouldn't pick a QB in any draft. Throughout the year you always get gems at QB it seems. In this league i'm debating on whether i should keep Vick, I drafted Farve. He was dropped after week 1 or 2. I picked up Vick and Orton on that team. If you could get such gems on the WW, i think the 1st round is best restrcted to WRs first and RBs second depending on your pick. Late in the 1st, i would go 100% with WRs, early in the 1st probably RBs depending on who is left. I don't see where i could take Vick in the 1st.
thehornet
Footballguy
yeah i know what you are saying. i thought it would be a good topic too.vick could actually rush for 10 touchdowns in a full season. thats amazing. you cant say that about any other qb. heck, at 10 td season out of a RB is excellent.
Trizzler
Footballguy
That's the best part about starting Vick...it's like having a #1 QB and a Flex RB in one package. You can almost always count on over 200 yards and 2 TDs through the air, and 50+ yards and the occasional TD on the ground.
I think the only thing that would keep him from being selected in the first round is injury concerns.
I think the only thing that would keep him from being selected in the first round is injury concerns.
thehornet
Footballguy
but vick is an excellent QB now.
Prof. Chaos
Footballguy
onehung said:
knowledge dropper
Footballguy
As long as he is QB of the Eagles. He is surrounded by a lot of young excellent talent at the skill position and they fit his game perfectly. He's not going to produce like this at most other destinations.
Portis 26
Madden Freak
Let's just be careful with fairytale stories like this. Kordell Stewart has already been mentioned and Randall Cunningham is another good example. He had an absolutely sensational breakout year in Moss's rookie season. Other veteran QBs enjoying fairytale years include Vinny Testaverde, Doug Flutie and Chris Chandler. The constant is that the following year, things didn't work out so well.
I'm not saying that Vick is doomed to go down that path because there are examples of veteran QBs getting it together and flourishing later in their careers. Steve Young would be the best example of this. But there are definitely some caveats with Vick. He's got a young QB whom his coach obviously loves (and was willing to entrust the future to) sitting behind him. He's on a 1 year deal that will expire after the season so there will be contract issues. There were off-season behaviour issues that you may recall (and you may also remember that there was even speculation that he would get cut the last off-season).
And the whole character thing matters. Every guy who has been in trouble is going to say he learned his lesson but how many really do? How much of it is rhetorical and how much of it is real? Sure, you can find stories of sinners who are now saints (eg Cris Carter), but they are the definite exception to the rule.
Am I being too cautious, too conservative here? Quite probably. I'm just saying though there's enough red flags around and we've been down this road enough times before with fairytale seasons that I wouldn't be all that surprised if it didn't all end happily ever after.
I'm not saying that Vick is doomed to go down that path because there are examples of veteran QBs getting it together and flourishing later in their careers. Steve Young would be the best example of this. But there are definitely some caveats with Vick. He's got a young QB whom his coach obviously loves (and was willing to entrust the future to) sitting behind him. He's on a 1 year deal that will expire after the season so there will be contract issues. There were off-season behaviour issues that you may recall (and you may also remember that there was even speculation that he would get cut the last off-season).
And the whole character thing matters. Every guy who has been in trouble is going to say he learned his lesson but how many really do? How much of it is rhetorical and how much of it is real? Sure, you can find stories of sinners who are now saints (eg Cris Carter), but they are the definite exception to the rule.
Am I being too cautious, too conservative here? Quite probably. I'm just saying though there's enough red flags around and we've been down this road enough times before with fairytale seasons that I wouldn't be all that surprised if it didn't all end happily ever after.
Banger
Footballguy
Depending on how he finishes he might be top 5 or 6 pick IMO. The guy could get 10 rushing tds, throw 25, run for 700+ yards, throw for what 4000? (he's had 3 300 yard games in his 7 or so fullgames). He hasn't scored under 20 and averaging probably about 28 points a game. The way he's throwing the ball now and in that offense if he stays healthy he could put up the best fantasy season ever. I'm sure this will be analyzed to death all offseason.
Banger
Footballguy
No one has a crystal ball but I've learned over the years to try keep my eyes and ears open on players and situations and not think I know something or someone I don't. Cedric benson is a bum, mike Williams is a bust, Vick can't pass and I could go on. There are certainly calculated risks and each owner has to decide if the risk that Vick returns to his old habits is worth the reward. I don't know him, I have no idea if he really has seen the light (nor does anyone else here) but he doing and saying the right things and playing his position at another level.
by_the_sea_wannabe
:sj:
Way to many negatives for a first round investment.
FUBAR
Footballguy
The only time Vick hasn't been a good FF QB is when injured or incarcerated. I'm not going to predict either one, so I have no reason to think he won't be a viable QB1. I don't know if he'll be better than Rodgers, Brees, Peyton, Romo, and I think the young guns Freeman, Bradford, etc. will be close behind so I'm not taking him in the 1st, but comparing him to K-Stew, Vinny, etc. seems disingenuous.
Gandalf
Footballguy
This is the biggest risk with Vick. I owned him for MANY years in my dynasty league when he was in Atlanta. I think people kind of forget that he was often dealing with injuries, especially because he runs so much. It is only a matter of time before he gets jacked up. Too risky for a first round pick. Unless your in a 2 QB league. Then I think you have to take that chance.jojoh07 said:
Banger
Footballguy
Just to put him into perspective a bit...I play in a standard scoring league and adjusted his playing time to reflect him playing one half in game 1 and 10 minutes in game 4 and he's averaged 29.2 fantasy points per game. 29.2. Rodgers is currenty the #1 QB in my league and his per game avg is 20.8.....a 40% difference.
gianmarco
Footballguy
What would those be? Which ones don't other 1st round picks have?
delusional
Footballguy
If the Eagles actually put a good offensive line in front of him, he is going to be scary
Insein
Footballguy
I think you're mis-remembering those Atlanta years. Vick was a notch below what Vince Young is now. He'd give you 100 yds rushing but only 120 yards passing and 1 TD. Some games the rushing wouldn't be there but the passing would still suck. Vick has 5 career 300 yard games. He has 3 of them this season in the 6 games he's played. He's playing great now and is definitely a top QB pick for FF but lets not gloss over the inconsistent mess he was in Atlanta for FF.
Insein
Footballguy
The biggest is injury concerns. Peyton, Brady, Brees etc all don't run wild and take unnecessary hits every other play. They also know how to slide when they do scramble. That alone is a major drawback. High risk high reward with Vick. Some games you'll get the Washington game (2nd one). Other games you'll get the Washington game (first one).
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
If he stays in Philly I can see using a late first/turn pick on him.
aimlessgun
Footballguy
But if you try to project next years 1st round, almost everyone has negatives. I don't know if he should be drafted in the 1st round, but I know he will be. Someone is going to roll the dice in every league. This is a guy that has a high floor and astronomical ceiling, if healthy.
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aimlessgun
Footballguy
Quick comparison thus far:Rodgers (this years 1st Rd QB): 57.4 pts better than the 12th scoring QB (value over replacement level player).
What kind of value over replacement do we get for drafting an RB in that area (8-10 spot)
Best case would be Turner: 47.2 pts better than the 24th scoring RB.
Sjax is only 30.5 points up.
The WRs, well...we all know how Moss turned out. Andre has been decent but not worthy of a 1st.
This is really simplistic analysis which only applies to a 12 team 'standard' league, but my point is that drafting a QB in the first can easily pay off, there is no fantasy rule that says 1st Rd QBs are always a bad idea.
I disagree. What people don't normally account for here is that the likelihood of finding a better QB off waivers after the draft are very low. The best you'll usually find are players like Hill or Kitna who are average QBs with some weapons around them that get the job due to injury. There is a much higher chance you will find players on waivers for other positions that will end up being top FF players.
Banger
Footballguy
I think you may be misremembering...in 02 he was 2nd, '03 he was hurt, '04 finished 9th (missed a game), '05 finished 6th (missed a game) and was 3rd in '06. He was not a good NFL QB but he was still a very good fantasy QB, now he's a good NFL QB and a fantasy uber stud. In Atlanta he absolutely crushed where Young is now (his high weeks have been 16, 17 and 18).
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Macdaddy_2004
Footballguy
I'm in a 2QB league so definately worth a first perhaps even the 1st overall.
jackdubl
Footballguy
Vick should definitely be the first QB off the board. That's probably in the first round, as I can't remember a league where no QB was taken in the first. In standard scoring average, it's Vick by a wide margin over Rivers, Rodgers, and a bunch of other QBs all jumbled up with similar averages. So he WILL be a first-rounder next season. Only question is do you take a QB that early? I wouldn't, personally. Usually there's a bargain to be had later, like Rivers was this season.
aimlessgun
Footballguy
Do you think it's easier to hit on those bargains for QBs than for other positions? I ask because for every position there are bargains to be had.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Why? Go back and look at the numbers thos guys put up in the years the guy you quoted is talking about.He never said Vick is destined to falter like they did (although Vinny blew out his achilles in the opening game the following season so who knows?), just issuing a few cautionary tales for perspective.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Still not sure I'd take Vick ahead of one of the more proven studs, like Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, and Drew Brees, but I'd definitely take him before a middle of the pack option like Jay Cutler or Tom Brady.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
He doesn't exactly avoid contact...as great as he has been - and its off the hook this year - he is still an injury waiting to happen.
Tau837
Footballguy
I think it's a mistake to prorate his numbers like this. His playing style leads to him playing half of one game and 10 minutes in another.The OP says to assume things "stay the same" which I take it means he maintains his current production for the rest of the season, and presumably also stays healthy and on the field the rest of the way. The OP says to assume that he is back in Philly. It doesn't mention his supporting cast, but I think we are probably to assume they are back and healthy at draft time.
Personally, I would not value him as a first round pick. It's exceedingly rare for a player to have this kind of elite breakout, once in a decade kind of season and then repeat it. For a number of reasons:
- Injuries to that player and/or his teammates
- Possible holdout/friction to get new contract
- Loss of focus/work ethic/motivation with new contract
- Defenses, especially those in the same division, studying a year's worth of film over the offseason make some useful adjustments
- Off field issues
- Presence of a quality backup in the event of a slump/losing streak
- Etc.
I think any or all of those things will affect him next year.
For a somewhat similar example, look at Chris Johnson this year. Last year, he had one of the best RB seasons in recent memory. This year, he's average fppg is roughly 2/3 what it was last year, and he hasn't even been hurt. He hasn't been a bust, but he hasn't been worthy of his draft pick either.
Think about the monster season Peyton Manning had. He had 460 fantasy points in 2004. In the 5 seasons since then, he has averaged "just" 332 with a high of 371. Has he been worth a 1st round fantasy pick in those years? It depends on your philosophy and league, but he hasn't been to me.
I'd feel better about drafting another position in the first and getting a very good QB in the 2nd to 4th depending on who is available.
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
whoever put no in a 2qb is dumb. I voted yes, but it depends on scoring. in 3pt passing td leagues he might slight to the second (but will be the 1st/2nd qb taken)
In a 2 qb league Vick is the #1 pick.
In a 2 qb league Vick is the #1 pick.
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
to be fair that's like comparing apples and chimpanzees.onehung said:
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
meh? name another qb that you can legitimately take his backup in the 14-19th round, and pretty mutch guarantee 75% of the starter stats, loq qb1/high qb2 #'s. Maybe kitna and sean hill, but not nearly as good of a qb1 there either.I will be keeping mr vick as a 18th and a 10th in two leagues and couldn't be happier. Even Happier my vick and hernandez for chris johnson trade was rejected (he actually chose s greene at a 6 rd value over vick and hernandez at 17/18...jojoh07 said:
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
agree. anyone saying he won't take him with a top 18 pick isn't going to have to worry about the decision.
