Dynasty DE/LB Tiers (1 Viewer)

First off, I love the article. I agree that tiering is a very good approach, particularly this far from next season.

I have some specific questions about players that weren't mentioned, and was hoping to hear from Jene and others about their thoughts on them.

Ranks are for Zealots, which it's easiest for me to sort by. They're DE-only rankings, not DL.

-Jason Babin, 5th. I know he's never done it before, but what keeps him from doing it again? There were some DE injuries in Tennessee this year, but there are always injuries.

-Chris Clemons, 11th. This could just be a question of the order the tiers were listed in, but he's in the 6th tier down as a high-sack, low-solo guy. It seems low given his ranking.

-Matt Shaughnessy, 13th. I love his upside as well, but it seems a little odd to rank him as if he were a guy who hasn't done anything yet after finishing 13th this year.

-Everson Griffen, Laurence Sidbury. Did Griffen never make the deep watch list? Sidbury did nothing - does that knock him off the list?

article = link ?

Yeah, I cannot find that article anywhere...can I get a link to it? Looked both in "Articles" and "Week 16" content.

Week 15

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2010/1...eading_wk15.php

Reading the Defense

Sorry, thanks Zoomanji.

Tick said:

First off, I love the article. I agree that tiering is a very good approach, particularly this far from next season.I have some specific questions about players that weren't mentioned, and was hoping to hear from Jene and others about their thoughts on them.Ranks are for Zealots, which it's easiest for me to sort by. They're DE-only rankings, not DL.-Jason Babin, 5th. I know he's never done it before, but what keeps him from doing it again? There were some DE injuries in Tennessee this year, but there are always injuries.-Chris Clemons, 11th. This could just be a question of the order the tiers were listed in, but he's in the 6th tier down as a high-sack, low-solo guy. It seems low given his ranking.-Matt Shaughnessy, 13th. I love his upside as well, but it seems a little odd to rank him as if he were a guy who hasn't done anything yet after finishing 13th this year.-Everson Griffen, Laurence Sidbury. Did Griffen never make the deep watch list? Sidbury did nothing - does that knock him off the list?

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Thanks, Tick (and Zoomanji for helping with the link).I should have listed Babin with Hayes and Morgan in the Upside Watch List tier. I'm not convinced he's talented enough to repeat this season's performance with the limited snaps he'll get in the Tennessee rotation, but he's got at least as much chance to put up 35-8 as Hayes.The Clemons issue is a function of the tier process, yes. The 3rd-6th groups are all DE2 tiers, broken out into more easily discussed groupings. The high sack, low solo tier got lower billing due to our default scoring system. He'd probably fit somewhere between 18 and 25 for me in a numerical rank list.I very much like Shaughnessy, but I'm not yet willing to put him in the clear DE2 (with upside) tier. The Raiders, despite what appears to me to be pretty solid run support ability, seemed to see him only as a rotational/situational body before Trevor Scott was injured. The risk of a rotational snap count next year keeps him in the watch list tier for now.Sidbury and Griffen could have a place on the deep watch list for sure, but I think the chance that either get more than a handful of snaps in 2011 is a little lower than the others. That deep watch list could be expanded to 8-10 names for those in leagues with 45-53+ roster spots and taxi squads. CJ Wilson, Larry Hart, Wallace Gilberry, Ricky Sapp might deserve mention, too.

Thanks, Jene. I hope other positions get the same treament in the next couple of weeks - this is great food for thought heading into offseason free agency in dynasty leagues.

Very much appreciate the early look as well...

I am happy to have Suggs and Charles Johnson on my team, and I certainly like your views for them next year! :(

Tick said:

Thanks, Jene. I hope other positions get the same treament in the next couple of weeks - this is great food for thought heading into offseason free agency in dynasty leagues.

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LBs now - thanks!

Some LB questions...

First, I'm eager to see what you write about the Brackett, Barnett, Morrison, and Bradley guys. I hope Tatupu comes up there as well.

Kevin Burnett finished 13th this year. Everyone's owned him at some point, and nobody wants to rely on him, but I could see an explanation where he was ignored in Dallas, then injured last season (but relatively productive when healthy), and finally had a decent situation this season, when he had a very good season. Is he off the list due to Siler and Butler? Personally, I'm holding him in dynasties this offseason - I suspect he'll be overlooked next season during redraft time, but will again end up an LB2 by the end of the season.

Jonathan Goff seems to be worthless, right?

Am I missing Jon Beason on one of the lists? If not, was he omitted intentionally?

What about AJ Edds? His situation seems decent, but is there any talent there?

Dhani Jones isn't inspiring in any way... but he's been pretty decent as an LB3 in Cincinnati. Are you leaving him off the list due to a Maualuga projection, or just saying people are better off taking a chance on a guy who could end up an LB1/2 than holding a reliable but boring veteran LB3? Maybe he's in the tier of guys you tabled for future discussion...

Also, now that both DEs and LBs have been discussed, are there any OLBs that you think could make an impact if moved back to DE, and that there's a reasonable chance it happens for any of them (like Carter and Kampman in previous year)? Michael Johnson, Scott, Carter, Kiwanuka?

Tick said:

First, I'm eager to see what you write about the Brackett, Barnett, Morrison, and Bradley guys. I hope Tatupu comes up there as well.Kevin Burnett finished 13th this year. Everyone's owned him at some point, and nobody wants to rely on him, but I could see an explanation where he was ignored in Dallas, then injured last season (but relatively productive when healthy), and finally had a decent situation this season, when he had a very good season. Is he off the list due to Siler and Butler? Personally, I'm holding him in dynasties this offseason - I suspect he'll be overlooked next season during redraft time, but will again end up an LB2 by the end of the season.Dhani Jones isn't inspiring in any way... but he's been pretty decent as an LB3 in Cincinnati. Are you leaving him off the list due to a Maualuga projection, or just saying people are better off taking a chance on a guy who could end up an LB1/2 than holding a reliable but boring veteran LB3? Maybe he's in the tier of guys you tabled for future discussion...

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All those veteran guys I didn't tier fall into the "not elitely talented, dependent on opportunity and/or with potentially unclear offseason situations due to depth chart, scheme or coaching change" group. I expect some of them to be top 25-30 linebackers by May-June, and they're decent holds in deeper leagues.I'm toying with an extended ranking/tiering exercise in Jan-Feb-Mar based on the Bill Simmons NBA trade value list paradigm as a jumping off point for dynasty discussion. All these guys would get more treatment in that format.

Tick said:

Jonathan Goff seems to be worthless, right?

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I'd hold him as a matchup LB4 in very deep leagues only.

Tick said:

Am I missing Jon Beason on one of the lists? If not, was he omitted intentionally?

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Bah. I was debating whether to have him in the first or second tier. Looks like I got distracted before making up my mind. I think he belongs near the top of the second tier given the coaching/scheme uncertainty.

Tick said:

What about AJ Edds? His situation seems decent, but is there any talent there?

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Probably deserves a place on the deep watch list. The injury concerns me, as it hinders his development in front of the coaches, as does the decent play of Tim Dobbins down the stretch.

Tick said:

Also, now that both DEs and LBs have been discussed, are there any OLBs that you think could make an impact if moved back to DE, and that there's a reasonable chance it happens for any of them (like Carter and Kampman in previous year)? Michael Johnson, Scott, Carter, Kiwanuka?

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I think Carter has probably passed his window of fantasy value whether he moves back to DE or not. Johnson is already producing at DE, but the Cincinnati situation is too tough to predict. That defense will look entirely different next year. He should have been slotted in the Upside Watch List DE tier. Robert Ayers would probably head my list of current 3-4 OLB who could thrive as a 4-3 end.-----Expect the DB tiers to be light on content. I'll probably divide them into three groups (stud, should hold and upside) and leave lots of names out due to the usual offseason uncertainty with that position.

What do you think about Paris Lenon for next season? He was a nice waiver wire pickup for me in a few leagues, and is still not terribly old (33), and has been consistent all season. I am aware that Washington is looking to become a big producer at some point, but can Lenon squeeze another 85+ solo season out?

Also, what about Session? I know he has been banged up this season, but the few games he has played he has produced. Assuming the Colts bring him back, where do you see him?

I just stumbled upon these articles

[*]DL Tiers

[*]LB Tiers

[*]DB Tiers

Thanks for doing these Jene. They will be a help during this offseason.

I had a question about the DB rankings. I get the strategy that the position is fluid each year so it only makes sense to focus on the top 2 tiers. Where would be a good place to get more info on your Safety Watch List tier? Ive heard of some of the guys (Morgan Burnett, Taylor Mays) but never heard of the others (Darcel McBath, Kam Chancellor, Akwasi Owusu-Ansah).

blackdot

The location of these articles highlights a pretty crappy part of the FBG website. Why should articles like these only be listed by the week they're published? Is the only way to find this article really to go digging through the in-season content, week by week, to see if anyone happened to do a dynasty article?

Go to the "Articles" part of the FBG website and it's all stuff from September 2010. It's crap, frankly.

Frank Costanza said:

I just stumbled upon these articles

[*]DL Tiers

[*]LB Tiers

[*]DB Tiers

Thanks for doing these Jene. They will be a help during this offseason.

I had a question about the DB rankings. I get the strategy that the position is fluid each year so it only makes sense to focus on the top 2 tiers. Where would be a good place to get more info on your Safety Watch List tier? Ive heard of some of the guys (Morgan Burnett, Taylor Mays) but never heard of the others (Darcel McBath, Kam Chancellor, Akwasi Owusu-Ansah).

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I think my update on the DB tiers is going to focus on identifying the most trustworthy, the likely overvalued and some priority targets. I'll flesh out the arguments for the watch list players in the priority target section. I'm pretty sure I touched on McBath and Chancellor pretty often in the Stunts section of the RTD during the second half of the season. There's probably some good discussion sprinkled among some of the forum threads from April 2010 forward, a name search might pull up some more detail there.

The Berry Man said:

The location of these articles highlights a pretty crappy part of the FBG website. Why should articles like these only be listed by the week they're published? Is the only way to find this article really to go digging through the in-season content, week by week, to see if anyone happened to do a dynasty article?

Go to the "Articles" part of the FBG website and it's all stuff from September 2010. It's crap, frankly.

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The Articles tab is meant to highlight the preseason articles, with the inseason stuff separated weekly by the banner. These "tier articles" were part of my weekly inseason articles, so that's why they're "stuck" where they are. I agree that it's difficult to find any of our 2011 preview discussion that were written as inseason pieces from 2010 now. I know that David and Joe and Doug have continued to work on solutions to make things easier to find. It often takes some of those innovations (i.e. including every article that mentions player X as a link on his player page) a little longer to trickle over to the IDP side. I know there's been discussion about making the entire database (articles, stats, etc) fully searchable by player name and tagging each piece of content as a dynasty, IDP, etc article for ease of searching (or separating the content into bundles for quick and easier access, i.e. an IDP tab with all the IDP specific content under one tab). I'm not certain where any of those improvements stand today, but I'll make sure that the concerns are known.

There's word going around that HOU will convert to the 3-4. What happens to Mario Williams in this case? I'm assuming if he stays a DE he'll lose value and if he moves to OLB we'll have to rely on sacks to get any value out of him.

Frank Costanza said:

I just stumbled upon these articles

[*]DL Tiers

[*]LB Tiers

[*]DB Tiers

Thanks for doing these Jene. They will be a help during this offseason.

I had a question about the DB rankings. I get the strategy that the position is fluid each year so it only makes sense to focus on the top 2 tiers. Where would be a good place to get more info on your Safety Watch List tier? Ive heard of some of the guys (Morgan Burnett, Taylor Mays) but never heard of the others (Darcel McBath, Kam Chancellor, Akwasi Owusu-Ansah).

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Beason is missing off your tiers for LBs.

Jene already addressed Beason's absence:

Jene Bramel said:

Bah. I was debating whether to have him in the first or second tier. Looks like I got distracted before making up my mind. I think he belongs near the top of the second tier given the coaching/scheme uncertainty.

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Frank Costanza said:

Jene already addressed Beason's absence:

Jene Bramel said:

Bah. I was debating whether to have him in the first or second tier. Looks like I got distracted before making up my mind. I think he belongs near the top of the second tier given the coaching/scheme uncertainty.

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oops. muhbad

Warpig said:

There's word going around that HOU will convert to the 3-4. What happens to Mario Williams in this case? I'm assuming if he stays a DE he'll lose value and if he moves to OLB we'll have to rely on sacks to get any value out of him.

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Wade Phillips claims that he will use Mario Williams similarly to how he used Bruce Smith back in the day. I'm not convinced.....that the result will be the same. (not really going out on a limb, since Bruce Smith was one of the most statistically productive DE's of alltime) Still, Bruce Smith had double-digit sacks in 4 of the 5 years where he played under Wade Phillips, despite the fact that Bruce was 32 years old when Phillips joined the team. Bruce Smith averaged 57 tackles, 20 assists and 12.5 sacks during the 1995-1997 seasons under Phillips. Smith then aged visibly and got fewer snaps per game, so his production dropped about 35% (across all stats) during his final 2 seasons with Phillips.Not sure what all of this means for Mario Williams, but it does suggest that a stud DE can thrive in the Phillips 3-4 defense.