19 replies to this topic

[Jene Bramel]

2010 thread can be found here.

Current situation in the codebox below. We'll update and speculate whenever any major news hits.

BASE DEFENSE 
4-3			TEN, NYG, PHI, SEA, ATL, DET, JAX, CIN, OAK, CAR, CLE, DEN
4-3/Tampa-2	IND, CHI, TB, MIN
3-4 		   NE, SD, PIT, MIA, GB, ARI, KC, HOU, DAL, SF
	***1-gap/2-gap notations on the 3-4 teams are the favored front, most teams are using a lot of 1-gap now
Mult Front	 BAL, NYJ, NO, WAS, BUF

AFC East
BUF	Chan Gailey/George Edwards				 3-4, ?multiple
MIA	Tony Sparano/Mike Nolan					3-4
NE	 Bill Belichick/Bill Belichick			  3-4, multiple front
NYJ	Rex Ryan/Mike Pettine					  3-4, multiple front

AFC North
BAL	John Harbaugh/CHUCK PAGANO				 4-3, multiple front
CIN	Marvin Lewis/Mike Zimmer				   4-3	
CLE	PAT SHURMUR/DICK JAURON					4-3 (likely)
PIT	Mike Tomlin/Dick LeBeau		 		   3-4

AFC South
HOU	Gary Kubiak/WADE PHILLIPS				  3-4
IND	Jim Caldwell/Larry Coyer				   4-3/Tampa-2
JAX	Jack Del Rio/Mel Tucker					4-3
TEN	MIKE MUNCHAK/JERRY GRAY					4-3

AFC West
DEN	JOHN FOX/DENNIS ALLEN					  4-3/? hybrid elements
KC	 Todd Haley/Romeo Crennel				   3-4
OAK	HUE JACKSON/(chuck bresnahan)	 		 4-3 (likely)
SD	 Norv Turner/GREG MANUSKY	 			  3-4

NFC East
DAL	JASON GARRETT/ROB RYAN					 3-4
NYG	Tom Coughlin/Perry Fewell				  4-3
PHI	Andy Reid/JUAN CASTILLO					4-3
WAS	Mike Shanahan/Jim Haslett				  3-4

NFC North
CHI	Lovie Smith/Rod Marinelli				  4-3 (Tampa-2)
DET	Jim Schwartz/Gunther Cunningham			4-3
GB	 Mike McCarthy/Dom Capers				   3-4
MIN	LESLIE FRAZIER/OPEN						4-3

NFC South
ATL	Mike Smith/Brian VanGorder				 4-3
CAR	RON RIVERA/SEAN MCDERMOTT				  4-3
NO	 Sean Payton/Gregg Williams				 4-3, multiple front 
TAM	Raheem Morris/Raheem Morris				4-3 (Tampa-2)

NFC West
ARI	Ken Whisenhunt/RAY HORTON				  3-4
STL	Steve Spagnuolo/Ken Flajole				4-3 
SF	 JIM HARBAUGH/VIC FANGIO					3-4
SEA	Pete Carroll/Gus Bradley				   4-3

**Changes in CAPS

[Jene Bramel]

Though one or two of the interim coaches may be retained into 2011, there are already five openings to be filled before the curtain drops on the regular season. There should be a handful of other head coach and defensive coordinator jobs opening up this week.

Denver – Eric Studesville is a longshot to be retained as the head coach and the defensive coaching staff will also be turned over.

Dallas – Jason Garrett has reportedly been retained as Cowboys’ head coach. Hard to see any major scheme changes here, as the Dallas personnel is clearly set up for a 3-4 front.

Minnesota – Interim coach Leslie Frazier is the early favorite here and has reportedly agreed to stay. Frazier could be more aggressive as the head coach, but the scheme likely stays the same here, too.

Carolina – Total turnover expected here. Anything could happen with this defensive group, with a return of a heavy Tampa-2 concept seemingly unlikely.

San Francisco – Jim Tomsula won’t be retained, and it’s likely that the Niners will target an offensive-minded head coach. No guarantees on retaining the current 3-4 scheme here either.

Other possible spots for turnover include the HC spots in Cincinnati, Cleveland, Miami, Tennessee, Oakland, and less likely Jacksonville and the New York Giants. Norv Turner and Gary Kubiak are apparently safe, but Ron Rivera (SD) may be interviewed for an open HC slot and the Texans will be turning over their DC position. Whether their head coaching situations change or not, Rob Ryan and Perry Fewell could also be interviewed for HC jobs.

[Jene Bramel]

Eric Mangini fired. I think Rob Ryan is still under contract, but it seems likely that he'll be elsewhere next year, too. If it's John Fox, we may see a new defensive front in Cleveland next year.

Also, Marvin Lewis' contract expired, leaving the Bengals without a head coach. It's almost a certainty that Lewis is gone.

[Jene Bramel]

Also, Marvin Lewis' contract expired, leaving the Bengals without a head coach. It's almost a certainty that Lewis is gone.

Right. Cincinnati re-signs Lewis today. Could mean lots of things for Maualuga and the young DL, but I'm interested to see what kind of personnel concessions Lewis got, too.

[HITMANMVP96]

Per RotoWorld

-Panthers Jan. 11 - 5:10 pm et

New coach Ron Rivera confirmed Tuesday that he will stick with a 4-3 defensive scheme in Carolina.

Rivera used the 3-4 most recently in San Diego, but he's coached both schemes in the past. Though he promised to use "some elements" of the 3-4 in his new defense, key players such as MLB Jon Beason will stay in their comfort zones. River emphasized that his will be an "attacking" defense, which is pretty much what all new defensive coaches promise.
Source: Steve Reed on Twitter

Nice tidbit for those hoping Carolina would be keeping the fantasy friendly 4-3 defense for key players like Beason and Johnson.

[The Man With No Name]

Oakland supposedly has interest in Rob Ryan as D Coordinator and Dave Wannstedt to Cleveland is rumored as well. Pat Shurmur expected to become Browns Head Coach.

[msommer]

Does the Fox hiring in DEN herald a return to 4-3?

[JAM]

Cleveland will reportedly be converting to a 4-3, which should lead to a lot of personell changes, especially at LB and DE. This is a situation to follow closely as there could be a lot of opportunity.

[Buffaloes]

Does the Fox hiring in DEN herald a return to 4-3?

With Sean McDermott rumored to be his new d coordinator, I think Denver returns to the 4-3.

[Cipherchris]

Is it possible to access the articles which described the defense schemes and the standard priority of which player to choose from certain scheme (e.g. MLB>WLB>SLB etc.) for free

[Jene Bramel]

Is it possible to access the articles which described the defense schemes and the standard priority of which player to choose from certain scheme (e.g. MLB>WLB>SLB etc.) for free

The classic threads linked in the Warehouse thread are usually outside the subscriber section at some point in the offseason. I'm not sure what the timetable for that may be for 2011.

I'm pretty sure that the Incorporating IDP Concepts article was a free article in 2009. Some of the examples used may be outdated, but the general topics should hold up well. The same should be true for this 2008 version of Norton's Breaking Down Defenses. Also, here's the archive of the posts I wrote for the Fifth Down blog last summer. They include the most updated and detailed installments of the defensive guide series and a post about using default priorities by position.

[Jene Bramel]

Apologies for the delays in keeping this thread up to date this offseason. Been busier than expected and the looming free agency issues have made it difficult to speculate with any certainty in some areas. I'm going to try to work through the league's changes over the next day (or few days) as time permits.

Buffalo [Chan Gailey/George Edwards]

No change at HC/DC in Buffalo, but there are plenty of indications that the Bills will remain a multiple front team (3-4 and 4-3 base) in 2011 -- planned, rather than as a reaction to questionable personnel and inconsistent play. Gailey said he liked the mix of fronts last year, and Edwards' past history is peppered with more 4-3 than 3-4. There was speculation in January that the hiring of Dave Wannstedt -- who is a disciple of the Miami 4-3 -- as an assistant head coach would mean a return to the 4-3, but there's been nothing official from the team.

I think the draft will help direct further speculation. The best parts of the defensive line/OLB group (Kyle Williams, Chris Kelsay) work as well (and possibly better) in a 4-3. The ILB group could work in either front. Williams is probably immune to any scheme concerns, given his production in 2009 and 2010 in both fronts. Paul Posluszny could see his ceiling lowered somewhat if the team plays more base 4-3 (and they choose to keep a thumper around at MLB and use Posluszny outside), but he had no trouble running up numbers from whatever position he played last year. If the competition for tackles along the front seven (and the high opportunity per game) remains the same, Posluszny is probably a safe bet in any prospective scheme, too.

[Jene Bramel]

Baltimore [John Harbaugh/CHUCK PAGANO]

Greg Mattison is out as defensive coordinator, but there won't be any major scheme or philosophy changes under new DC Chuck Pagano. I suppose there's a chance we may see personnel signed/drafted that allow the Ravens to do a little more 3-4, but I think it's the same multiple base front with a lean to an aggressive base 4-3.

[Jene Bramel]

Cleveland [PAT SHURMUR/DICK JAURON]

There's been no official indication, but it's highly likely that Jauron will transition the Browns back to a 4-3 front. That's been his preferred philosophy for years and many of the vets he cut recently would be considered poor fits for the 3-4. Projecting the depth chart of the front seven is tough, especially since the most likely IDP-relevant players on the current chart (Matt Roth and D'Qwell Jackson) are both free agents. Roth would likely move to DE if the Browns move to a 4-3 if the team brings him back. Jackson could play MLB or WLB, with his upside dependent on the talent and role of the every-down linebacker next to him in either scenario.

In general, Jauron's 4-3 has been conservative. He'll generally rush only four and have them play with leverage and technique rather than pushing upfield first. There's not a lot of upside for an average talent at DE, as only Aaron Schobel was a consistent statistical force (through Tony Brackens, James Hall and Alex Brown had their moments) among the Jacksonville, Chicago, Detroit and Buffalo teams Jauron coached/coordinated. There's certainly room for upside for an every-down linebacker here, particularly if the competition and opportunity projects to be high. TJ Ward's expectation may take a hit, as he's less likely to be used as an in-the-box roving playmaker. He may have the talent to overcome the change in opportunity between the two schemes (more likely if the tackle opportunity is above-average), but it'll be harder for him to reach a DB1 ceiling.

[Cipherchris]

Is it possible to access the articles which described the defense schemes and the standard priority of which player to choose from certain scheme (e.g. MLB>WLB>SLB etc.) for free

The classic threads linked in the Warehouse thread are usually outside the subscriber section at some point in the offseason. I'm not sure what the timetable for that may be for 2011.

I'm pretty sure that the Incorporating IDP Concepts article was a free article in 2009. Some of the examples used may be outdated, but the general topics should hold up well. The same should be true for this 2008 version of Norton's Breaking Down Defenses. Also, here's the archive of the posts I wrote for the Fifth Down blog last summer. They include the most updated and detailed installments of the defensive guide series and a post about using default priorities by position.

Thank you so much Dr. Jene

[Jene Bramel]

Denver [JOHN FOX/DENNIS ALLEN]

The Denver Post has an article today confirming our suspicions that Fox and Allen, both 4-3 coaches, will transition to the 4-3 more quickly than originally suggested. Mike Klis speculated that Robert Ayers and Elvis Dumervil will play DE in the 4-3. That's no surprise, though it'll be interesting to see if there's some rotation among the base and nickel packages. I was high on Ayers as a two-way 4-3 DE prospect before he was drafted and converted and he's spent enough time in the league that he ought to be able to avoid much of the inconsistency we see with young 4-3 defensive ends. Dumervil was a productive pass rusher in the 4-3 earlier in his career, but he's likely to be closer to a Freeney/Abraham player -- limited in the tackle columns with double digit sacks.

The more interesting speculation from today's article was the suggestion that DJ Williams would play WLB. I think that's very reasonable with the current depth chart. Williams' upside then becomes dependent on what kind of 4-3 the Broncos use. Fox tended toward the conservative side in his base 4-3, but opened things up a bit with a good mix of pressure and Tampa-2 with Ron Meeks last year. Dennis Allen has been with Gregg Williams, who leans heavily toward an aggressive, multiple 4-3 look. Williams at WLB would be one of the higher valued OLBs, but would see his ceiling and consistency drop a bit. Klis suggests that Mario Haggan or Joe Mays would play inside. I think it's unlikely Haggan gets the call there, but Mays is a reasonable candidate. Barring any FA/draft moves, I think the most likely depth chart is Williams/Mays/Haggan. But I'd expect the Broncos to add at least one linebacker between now and the opening of camp.


Houston [Gary Kubiak/WADE PHILLIPS]

Lots of detail about the implications of Wade Phillips bringing his 1-gap 3-4 to Houston in this thread, which is worth the read if you've missed it. I think we've put the "avoid inside linebackers in the 3-4" argument permanently to rest, and it's clear that an every-down WILB with some talent has plenty of upside. I think that's likely to be DeMeco Ryans, who should be fine if the CBA issues don't hamper his recovery and adjustment to the new scheme. I still think we see Brian Cushing outside at LOLB and that Mario Williams has enough upside at DE to remain IDP relevant (DL2+).

Should be interesting to see how camp shakes out here.

[Jene Bramel]

Tennessee [MIKE MUNCHAK/JERRY GRAY]

There's not likely to be much change in this defensive scheme. It will remain a 4-3, though Gray says everything is on the table until he studies the tape and his personnel. The driving factors here are going to be (a) how the free agency of Jason Babin and recovery of Derrick Morgan affect the DE rotation and (b) how the free agency of Stephen Tulloch and growth of Rennie Curran affect the MLB position. There should continue to be plenty of value for an every-down MLB here and the defensive ends with the most rotational snaps.

[Jene Bramel]

<b>Houston [Gary Kubiak/WADE PHILLIPS]</b>

Lots of detail about the implications of Wade Phillips bringing his 1-gap 3-4 to Houston in this thread, which is worth the read if you've missed it. I think we've put the "avoid inside linebackers in the 3-4" argument permanently to rest, and it's clear that an every-down WILB with some talent has plenty of upside. I think that's likely to be DeMeco Ryans, who should be fine if the CBA issues don't hamper his recovery and adjustment to the new scheme. I still think we see Brian Cushing outside at LOLB and that Mario Williams has enough upside at DE to remain IDP relevant (DL2+).

Should be interesting to see how camp shakes out here.

Since this post, the Texans have said that Cushing will play SILB. That confirms that Ryans will be the WILB, with his upside now solely dependent on how well he recovers from the Achilles' injury. I think Cushing had potential as an all-around 3-4 SOLB, but it's not a terrible fit. The role will be somewhere between his SLB and MLB roles last season. I think Bradie James and James Farrior are reasonable comps here, as guys that have been used in coverage and as blitzers rather than true smash mouth run stuffers. I don't think we see Cushing top 85 solos in this role, but if Phillips mixes in some 46 and uses Cushing as a blitzer as often as he used James at times, there's LB2 potential in this role. It also makes Connor Barwin a high priority watch for those in big play scoring systems.

[Jene Bramel]

<b>Oakland [HUE JACKSON/(chuck bresnahan]</b>
The Raiders still haven't formally named a defensive coordinator, but there's been plenty of speculation that Bresnahan may see his duties expanded into that role. Regardless, not much will change. The Raiders will run the 4-3 and press on the outside and the MLB and SS should continue to be high value IDP targets.

<b>San Diego (Norv Turner/GREG MANUSKY)</b>
Not much change here either. Manusky was a respected defensive assistant in San Diego when Wade Phillips was there and runs a very similar 1-gap 3-4 philosophy. There may be a few subtle differences from what Ron Rivera was doing, but they aren't likely to change the statistical expectations much.

[Bronx Bomber]

Is there any indication as to what CAR is going to be next year? Are they moving to a 3-4 or do we not know yet? What would you do with Johnson and Hardy: buy, hold, avoid?

Edited by Bronx Bomber, 24 January 2012 - 08:54 AM.