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The Great Brees/Rodgers Debate- and a little strategy talk


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#1 CompetitiveEdgeFootball

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Posted 06 January 2011 - 01:40 PM

Alright lets get out of that person's thread with this, seeing as this is going to go on a bit longer. I can't tell you you're hijacking a thread, then help you do it. :confused:

The reason I go back 3 seasons is that Rodgers has 3 full seasons under his belt as the starter in GB. It fills out an accurate picture of what we're looking at, the larger the sample set, the more clear of an idea we have of what we're really looking at. Going back only two seasons however, eliminates Brees' ridiculous '08 campaign in which he threw for 5k+ yards and 30+ TDs. So although Rodgers has a clear edge over the last two seasons, there's no reason to eliminate the '08 season, unless you can say that it was a total statistical anomaly on Brees' part and can be disqualified. That being said, I realize that FF is more about "what have you done for me lately" and players do indeed have "windows" and "primes" and things of this nature, a point that we've both agreed upon in our endless debating in another thread. It poses the question, is Brees incapable of replicating his '08 season? Is he past that part of his career where he's the clear dominant force throwing the ball in the league? It's hard to say. I have no data to prove it either way. We know the Saints running game was badly handicapped all season. We also know that Brees played with an injured knee for at least 1/3 of it. Do these contributors factor in to Brees having an "ordinary" season of 4700 yards and 33 TDs? He did set a career high for interceptions. I think this is a symptom of more personnel being back in coverage because of a lack of a credible running threat, and a possible physical ailment that befouled his mechanics. Of course when it comes down to it, I'm really just a "football guy" and not an expert. This seems like the most likely scenario. That's all I have to go on. But an "ordinary" season of 4700/33 is absolutely nuts.
Looking at your numbers, based on your league scoring (you must concede that having a strong QB is a bit more important in a 12 teamer than a 10) that Rodgers has about a 7.6% edge over Brees per game. I think I conceded that Rodgers gives a slight edge in points, but it's close. I think that 7.6% describes a slight advantage.
From this point I think it really does come down to approach. As I've stated before, in most of my leagues, both of these guys went in the top 12 picks. Most of my leagues are 10 team redrafts. (Alas I'm not as hardcore as I appear :/ ) The top 12 players in any draft are the guys that you expect that most significant contribution on your roster from. (Many teams were just dead after Gore went down 2/3 of the way through the season.) Now I'm not ready to slap the "injury prone" label on Rodgers, because that's virtually no evidence to support such a claim. But what I'm saying is, he finds himself in situations with much more frequency, that could very well get him injured. And that the league is just crazy about concussions now. So to me a 7.6%, or just over 1.5 ppg differential isn't really worth it. But as you stated above. your league seems to be pretty competitive, if total points at the end of the league wind up being less than 50pts in separation per team. I don't believe this is the usual circumstance in many cases. (If your league mates are as good at this as you are, you're probably working too hard at this. There are easier leagues to be had, and your edge would be significantly higher.)

So if I'm going to spend a pick in my top 10, and I realize that no player is "safe" from injury under any circumstance, I want him to have the best chance possible to contribute at a high level on a game by game basis, while eliminating as much risk as possible. I believe that Brees, given his current circumstances, could outscore Rodgers in a given season. I don't find this to be a huge stretch. He's outscored everyone before, and really not a lot of his circumstances have changed. If we were talking about the difference between Flacco and Ryan, then it really wouldn't matter, because you're snapping those guys up in the 8th-9th-10th round. If the rest of your team is comprised of elite position players, producing on an elite level, then any more than an above average QB is just a boon (the wait on QB theory.) What makes this matter is where you have to draft Brees and Rodgers.
Some people last summer were drafting AP ahead of CJ2k. Mostly because of risk vs baseline. There was a limited sample set out on CJ and no one really knew what to expect, whereas ADP has already established a solid baseline, with a couple seasons sample set.
So then it becomes about draft strategy. I'm thinking by now that you know that I am of the school that wants solid, smart picks early on in the draft, then taking extreme high upside players in the mid and late rounds. All upside at that point. For example, in round 10, taking Mike Wallace instead of Santonio Holmes. They were probably projected about the same, where Wallace had huge upside to outperform his draft position.
Perhaps you like to make bold and gambly moves early on in the draft. The leagues I play in are all decent sized buy ins, and I'm comfortable with my overall strategy. I'm not a totally "safe" drafter, but I am early on. If im in a "toss up" I'll always take a RB1 who gets 20+ touches per game over a WR1 who only may get 12, at least early on (standard scoring). If its the last round and I have the choice between a Caddillac or a Mike Williams (TB), I go Williams for the upside. (please excuse all my 2010 draft strategy citings. I know they'll be totally different guys in 6 months, I'm just trying to illustrate points. And I did over 120 mock drafts last spring and summer before the '10 season, so I'm still hung up on the ADPs of certain players.)

So it looks like at the end of the day, it comes down to a difference in philosophy and approach to how you "play" fantasy football. Are you correct in your assessment and methodology? Yes, I believe you are. Am I correct in mine? Yes, I believe I am as well.


"Luke, you're going to find that many of the truths we cling to depend greatly on our own point of view." - Obi Wan Kenobi

Edited by CompetitiveEdgeFootball, 06 January 2011 - 01:44 PM.

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#2 leggman01

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Posted 06 January 2011 - 02:21 PM

If your league mates are as good at this as you are, you're probably working too hard at this. There are easier leagues to be had, and your edge would be significantly higher

nice...i'll have to give this entire post a more thorough read before i respond in full, but i liked this tidbit upon initial read i think i'm in the top 3 or 4 in my league...in 9 years i've won 2 championships and have made the playoffs 6 times, but there are three others with 2 championships and 2 or 3 who have a higher playoff percentage than i do - there is also one in my league that could be one of the best if he weren't a talent horder...every year he drafts incredibly, but he doesn't trade well - he had moreno AND ahmad bradshaw on his bench all season with very clear deficiencies at qb and wr and he missed the playoffs...all while there were teams with clear needs for a second rb and depth at wr or qb - even the bottom dwellers in our league grind all season long making waiver claims and trade offers, trying to win and get better so yeah...it's a very competitive league :goodposting: it really is nirvana for a highly competitive and analytical person, so i have no desire to play in an easier league...i want to win against the best and i think our league is pretty darn strong
2012 TEAM - 12 team 2 keeper league, traditional scoring (no ppr)
(1 pt/10 yd rush/rec, 1 pt 25 yd passing, 6 rush/rec td, 4 pass td, 2 pt bonus for 40+ td)

start 1 qb, 1 rb, 1 rb/wr, 2 wr, 1 te, 1 d/st, 1 k

QB: p. manning, flacco
RB: mcfadden, r. bush,, hunter, l. miller, j. rodgers
WR: wallace, austin, t. smith,ogletree
TE: gronk, pitta
D/ST: HOU, MIN
K: walsh

2005, 2010 league champion

#3 CompetitiveEdgeFootball

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Posted 06 January 2011 - 02:41 PM

If your league mates are as good at this as you are, you're probably working too hard at this. There are easier leagues to be had, and your edge would be significantly higher

nice...i'll have to give this entire post a more thorough read before i respond in full, but i liked this tidbit upon initial read i think i'm in the top 3 or 4 in my league...in 9 years i've won 2 championships and have made the playoffs 6 times, but there are three others with 2 championships and 2 or 3 who have a higher playoff percentage than i do - there is also one in my league that could be one of the best if he weren't a talent horder...every year he drafts incredibly, but he doesn't trade well - he had moreno AND ahmad bradshaw on his bench all season with very clear deficiencies at qb and wr and he missed the playoffs...all while there were teams with clear needs for a second rb and depth at wr or qb - even the bottom dwellers in our league grind all season long making waiver claims and trade offers, trying to win and get better so yeah...it's a very competitive league :) it really is nirvana for a highly competitive and analytical person, so i have no desire to play in an easier league...i want to win against the best and i think our league is pretty darn strong

I can relate to this. From my point of view, and how "gaming" in general works is thus: if you have a neutral skill edge vs the field (the rest of the league) then what happens over the course of time is, you all end up passing the money around in a circle, if you can minimize the variance (luck) from how you approach the game. The amount of money you take out of a league over time is based on your skill edge. It's easier for me to calculate a skill edge in poker than FF, because i think there's a certain degree more luck involved in FF than if you're REALLY good at poker. But if you think you're 15% better than the field in your league, then you end up passing around all the money, but keeping 15% more than the average team GM. What ends up happening is all the "good" GMs end up splitting all the "bad" GMs money over the course of time. It may take years to manifest itself this way, because there is a certain amount of variance involved in FF (injuries, players sitting out for other reasons, Brian Westbrook kneeling down on the 1 yard line instead of going in for the score, unexpected absolute blow up career days- a la Ryan moats laste last season.) if your smart enough, and are fortunate to be in the position to do so, you can swing luck into your favor by occasionally stealing huge boom players off the waiver wire like Hillis, Vick, Brandon Lloyd, Blount and Steve Johnson. A lot of it has to do with how you evaluate players and how much research you're willing to put in. In a league i came in 2nd in this past year, I had Hillis, but dropped him in week 2 because I didn't like his upcoming schedule (bal, pit etc). I probably cost myself thousands with this one drop/add. So I like to play in small money leagues with really good shrewd owners. Because none of us are making a ton off anyone else anyway, over the course of the years. I'll play in any big money league with a bunch of gambler, weekend warrior types though. Even if i need to have a backer for it. And I do :mellow:. Because the potential earn over time is big based on my edge vs the rest of the owners.

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#4 CompetitiveEdgeFootball

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Posted 06 January 2011 - 02:46 PM

For me fun is one thing, but I like to win my money. I'll even do free leagues just to beat up on scrubs, just for hahas. But like investing, you look for good situations to get your money involved, and that's another way I approach FF.

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#5 GiantsFan

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Posted 06 January 2011 - 03:29 PM

dude///u give insihjtful answers... bEIOFRE I COMMENT ON DRAFT STRATEDY..i always PLAY PPR ANd Dynasty imho...IT IS THE BEXT WAY To HAVE SOME BALANNCE AFETER THE DRAFT IS OIVER as compared toi redraft/ non PPR........Instead of the guy picking first bgetting AP....say Brady and maubwey even say a JC or Dmac,,he had better be care####,.,....if not all the good PPR Wr's will ne gone...... First...i agree...that getting more sure fire tyoe of players early is the asy tio go...prsonally...i lik4 todraftv at ay 11 adn loe tyhe double picks..so to speak..sfm YUEs allows me to contro to a much better dergre the flow of the draft...i can statrt an LB run if i grab 2 uop yier guys inja row in say Rd 6 0r 7 Look at its this way....i would rather have say next year....1.11...2.02.....3.11...and 4.02 and so forth...this give me two advatanges as i see it.....i can get to see howof thge draft is flowing and rather tgan be at ite nercy have akklot better inout toi control the low and runs on certain positions...rather than be at the mercy of who is left afetr a run at againb say LB One other key is to stay fexibkle..I DO 12 tam IDP dsynaty for te mosst oart..... last year i got Calvin at 1.11 and then turned right around and grabbed JC at 2:02 the guys at 1.O may have got CJ ro Ado then someone like..Bouldin as his WR1.hE IS THEN STUCK AT THE 8 TO 5 RANGE AT qb.//dEPENDING HOW THINGS FLOW I CAN GRAB bARDTY ARLY OIR WAIT AND gET cALVIN...SAY jc THEN A GUY LIKE rIVERS IN LATER 3 ...ONLY TO THE HAVE THE 3 rD TRIFECTA AS I CALL IT ..A TRUE WR1...QB1 And at the least a low end RB1...that leaves me at4:02...to see where i am at...what other guS ARE DOING ......AND LEAVES POSSIBILITIES OF A GUY LIKE wAYBY . cOLLIE...OR EVEN sJAX OF tRUNER....... znOW AS FOR rODGERS TO bREEEZE....SORRY......NEXT YEAR no WILLL GET THE RUNNING GAME BACK AND rIVERS WILLM BE A TOP 3 qb Againj....Rivers for me all day long... anyway that is how i like to to it,,and have even been knoiwn to rade diwn,,,,, ' 'As for Breze VS Rodgrers...sorry...illl take Breeze alll day long.....

#6 CompetitiveEdgeFootball

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Posted 06 January 2011 - 03:39 PM

dude///u give insihjtful answers... bEIOFRE I COMMENT ON DRAFT STRATEDY..i always PLAY PPR ANd Dynasty imho...IT IS THE BEXT WAY To HAVE SOME BALANNCE AFETER THE DRAFT IS OIVER as compared toi redraft/ non PPR........Instead of the guy picking first bgetting AP....say Brady and maubwey even say a JC or Dmac,,he had better be care####,.,....if not all the good PPR Wr's will ne gone...... First...i agree...that getting more sure fire tyoe of players early is the asy tio go...prsonally...i lik4 todraftv at ay 11 adn loe tyhe double picks..so to speak..sfm YUEs allows me to contro to a much better dergre the flow of the draft...i can statrt an LB run if i grab 2 uop yier guys inja row in say Rd 6 0r 7 Look at its this way....i would rather have say next year....1.11...2.02.....3.11...and 4.02 and so forth...this give me two advatanges as i see it.....i can get to see howof thge draft is flowing and rather tgan be at ite nercy have akklot better inout toi control the low and runs on certain positions...rather than be at the mercy of who is left afetr a run at againb say LB One other key is to stay fexibkle..I DO 12 tam IDP dsynaty for te mosst oart..... last year i got Calvin at 1.11 and then turned right around and grabbed JC at 2:02 the guys at 1.O may have got CJ ro Ado then someone like..Bouldin as his WR1.hE IS THEN STUCK AT THE 8 TO 5 RANGE AT qb.//dEPENDING HOW THINGS FLOW I CAN GRAB bARDTY ARLY OIR WAIT AND gET cALVIN...SAY jc THEN A GUY LIKE rIVERS IN LATER 3 ...ONLY TO THE HAVE THE 3 rD TRIFECTA AS I CALL IT ..A TRUE WR1...QB1 And at the least a low end RB1...that leaves me at4:02...to see where i am at...what other guS ARE DOING ......AND LEAVES POSSIBILITIES OF A GUY LIKE wAYBY . cOLLIE...OR EVEN sJAX OF tRUNER....... znOW AS FOR rODGERS TO bREEEZE....SORRY......NEXT YEAR no WILLL GET THE RUNNING GAME BACK AND rIVERS WILLM BE A TOP 3 qb Againj....Rivers for me all day long... anyway that is how i like to to it,,and have even been knoiwn to rade diwn,,,,, ' 'As for Breze VS Rodgrers...sorry...illl take Breeze alll day long.....

I have no idea what's going to happen with the Saint's running game. Indications are that Chris Ivory maybe be gone: " Chris Ivory-RB- Saints Jan. 5 - 3:32 pm et Saints coach Sean Payton confirmed Wednesday that Chris Ivory (injured reserve, foot) will require surgery to fix his Lisfranc injury. 'It sounds like a Lisfranc fracture, a severe injury that may not be easy for Ivory to recover from prior to 2011 training camp. A success story as an undrafted rookie out of Tiffin, Ivory's long injury history dates back to his first college stop at Washington State. He is cheaply signed in 2011, but won't be assured of a role pending rehab and offseason moves.' Source: Jeff Duncan on Twitter " We know what Reggie Bush is by now, he's not really a RB, but he does keep opposing safeties busy. I don't know if Payton will tolerate another year of PT just being constantly hurt. He makes DMC look like Cal Ripken. He pulls his hamstring just stirring the Gatorade. But maybe they'll get smart and make a play for DeAngelo or Mike Bush. Lot could happen this offseason, hell we might not even have football next year. All that being said I like Rivers too yeah. :goodposting:

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#7 CompetitiveEdgeFootball

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Posted 06 January 2011 - 03:50 PM

.Bouldin as his WR1...

During one of my hundreds of Mocks last year I told some guy that drafting Santana Moss in the 7-8 round range was waaaaay better than drafting Boldin in the 3rd round and he went APE #### on me. It was pretty funny though. Oh look who finished the year higher in the rankings... S.Moss- 93/1115/6 A.Boldin- 64/837/7 fantasyfootballcalculator.com = great success.

Edited by CompetitiveEdgeFootball, 06 January 2011 - 03:53 PM.

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#8 I was in the pool

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Posted 06 January 2011 - 04:18 PM

S.Moss was definitely a surprise this year...
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#9 leggman01

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Posted 06 January 2011 - 06:55 PM

The reason I go back 3 seasons is that Rodgers has 3 full seasons under his belt as the starter in GB. It fills out an accurate picture of what we're looking at, the larger the sample set, the more clear of an idea we have of what we're really looking at. Going back only two seasons however, eliminates Brees' ridiculous '08 campaign in which he threw for 5k+ yards and 30+ TDs. So although Rodgers has a clear edge over the last two seasons, there's no reason to eliminate the '08 season, unless you can say that it was a total statistical anomaly on Brees' part and can be disqualified.

i think it's only fair to go back 3 seasons, as well, and i think that brees is completely capable of duplicating the '08 season...here is the problem, from a fantasy standpoint (again, using the scoring system in OUR league...brees had a season for the ages with 5,000+ yards...and scored 307 fantasy points - rodgers has AVERAGED 310 fantasy points over the last three years - the simple fact is this - that which makes rodgers more "risky" in your eyes (his running) is also the exact thing that makes him more valuable from a fantasy stanpoint...the rushing yardage, the rushing td's...they give rodgers a clear edge

So then it becomes about draft strategy. I'm thinking by now that you know that I am of the school that wants solid, smart picks early on in the draft, then taking extreme high upside players in the mid and late rounds.

it's difficult to argue this strategy...however, in a highly competitive environment, there are certain circumstances, where you have to take talent/upside and do everything in your power to mitigate whatever level of risk might exist (handcuffing), even in the early rounds - you simply can't win in a competitive league without some risk/reward - safe early draft strategy might land you bress instead of rodgers, and you're losing 1.4 ppg or worse, peyton manning vs. rodgers - that might be good in real football, but in fantasy (in our scoring system), you would be losing almost 2.4 ppg i will say this, too...i'm more comfortable taking a slight risk in early rounds because i'm confident that i will make moves throughout the season that others in my league won't (picking up steve johnson in week 3, trading ray rice for michael turner and dmc early in the season when i determined that rice and t. jones weren't going to cut it as a winning tandem) - this has backfired...i've missed the playoffs 3 times, and in each of them i can point to a couple of risky moves that didn't work out, and perhaps cost me a title (similar to your decision to drop hillis) - i'm of the opinion that the league title is RARELY won on draft day...it's the owner who makes the best moves throughout the season

So it looks like at the end of the day, it comes down to a difference in philosophy and approach to how you "play" fantasy football. Are you correct in your assessment and methodology? Yes, I believe you are. Am I correct in mine? Yes, I believe I am as well.

well said

"Luke, you're going to find that many of the truths we cling to depend greatly on our own point of view." - Obi Wan Kenobi

i'm not much of a star trek guy, but obi wan is very wise...
2012 TEAM - 12 team 2 keeper league, traditional scoring (no ppr)
(1 pt/10 yd rush/rec, 1 pt 25 yd passing, 6 rush/rec td, 4 pass td, 2 pt bonus for 40+ td)

start 1 qb, 1 rb, 1 rb/wr, 2 wr, 1 te, 1 d/st, 1 k

QB: p. manning, flacco
RB: mcfadden, r. bush,, hunter, l. miller, j. rodgers
WR: wallace, austin, t. smith,ogletree
TE: gronk, pitta
D/ST: HOU, MIN
K: walsh

2005, 2010 league champion

#10 leggman01

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Posted 06 January 2011 - 07:00 PM

giantsfan - no offense, but you need to get a keyboard with keys that don't stick...it's hard to find a cogent point in your posts
2012 TEAM - 12 team 2 keeper league, traditional scoring (no ppr)
(1 pt/10 yd rush/rec, 1 pt 25 yd passing, 6 rush/rec td, 4 pass td, 2 pt bonus for 40+ td)

start 1 qb, 1 rb, 1 rb/wr, 2 wr, 1 te, 1 d/st, 1 k

QB: p. manning, flacco
RB: mcfadden, r. bush,, hunter, l. miller, j. rodgers
WR: wallace, austin, t. smith,ogletree
TE: gronk, pitta
D/ST: HOU, MIN
K: walsh

2005, 2010 league champion

#11 Chuck the Roc

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Posted 14 January 2011 - 11:35 AM

dude///u give insihjtful answers...

bEIOFRE I COMMENT ON DRAFT STRATEDY..i always PLAY PPR ANd Dynasty imho...IT IS THE BEXT WAY To HAVE SOME BALANNCE AFETER THE DRAFT IS OIVER as compared toi redraft/ non PPR........Instead of the guy picking first bgetting AP....say Brady and maubwey even say a JC or Dmac,,he had better be care####,.,....if not all the good PPR Wr's will ne gone......

First...i agree...that getting more sure fire tyoe of players early is the asy tio go...prsonally...i lik4 todraftv at ay 11 adn loe tyhe double picks..so to speak..sfm YUEs allows me to contro to a much better dergre the flow of the draft...i can statrt an LB run if i grab 2 uop yier guys inja row in say Rd 6 0r 7

Look at its this way....i would rather have say next year....1.11...2.02.....3.11...and 4.02 and so forth...this give me two advatanges as i see it.....i can get to see howof thge draft is flowing and rather tgan be at ite nercy have akklot better inout toi control the low and runs on certain positions...rather than be at the mercy of who is left afetr a run at againb say LB
One other key is to stay fexibkle..I DO 12 tam IDP dsynaty for te mosst oart..... last year i got Calvin at 1.11 and then turned right around and grabbed JC at 2:02 the guys at 1.O may have got CJ ro Ado then someone like..Bouldin as his WR1.hE IS THEN STUCK AT THE 8 TO 5 RANGE AT qb.//dEPENDING HOW THINGS FLOW I CAN GRAB bARDTY ARLY OIR WAIT AND gET cALVIN...SAY jc THEN A GUY LIKE rIVERS IN LATER 3 ...ONLY TO THE HAVE THE 3 rD TRIFECTA AS I CALL IT ..A TRUE WR1...QB1 And at the least a low end RB1...that leaves me at4:02...to see where i am at...what other guS ARE DOING ......AND LEAVES POSSIBILITIES OF A GUY LIKE wAYBY . cOLLIE...OR EVEN sJAX OF tRUNER.......

znOW AS FOR rODGERS TO bREEEZE....SORRY......NEXT YEAR no WILLL GET THE RUNNING GAME BACK AND rIVERS WILLM BE A TOP 3 qb Againj....Rivers for me all day long...

anyway that is how i like to to it,,and have even been knoiwn to rade diwn,,,,,
'
'As for Breze VS Rodgrers...sorry...illl take Breeze alll day long.....

i couldnt even get through that, can someone summarize for me plz

#12 JPeso

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Posted 17 January 2011 - 07:17 AM

I cannot read all that this thread is saying, in the OP and then beyond. Brees and Rodgers isn't a debate - Rodgers is a far better option in dynasty.

#13 CompetitiveEdgeFootball

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Posted 06 April 2011 - 10:57 PM

I cannot read all that this thread is saying, in the OP and then beyond. Brees and Rodgers isn't a debate - Rodgers is a far better option in dynasty.

Try and read the arguments made, and if you have some sort of conclusive answer to the debate, please state your reasons why, so they too can be debated.

dude///u give insihjtful answers...



Man CEF is fishing the heck out of you guys.



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#14 JPeso

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Posted 07 April 2011 - 02:55 AM

I cannot read all that this thread is saying, in the OP and then beyond. Brees and Rodgers isn't a debate - Rodgers is a far better option in dynasty.

Try and read the arguments made, and if you have some sort of conclusive answer to the debate, please state your reasons why, so they too can be debated.

I can't share too much. :lmao:

#15 CompetitiveEdgeFootball

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Posted 08 April 2011 - 03:05 AM

I cannot read all that this thread is saying, in the OP and then beyond. Brees and Rodgers isn't a debate - Rodgers is a far better option in dynasty.

Try and read the arguments made, and if you have some sort of conclusive answer to the debate, please state your reasons why, so they too can be debated.

I can't share too much. :lmao:

:shrug: For the record this was never an argument that had anything to do with "dynasty."

Edited by CompetitiveEdgeFootball, 08 April 2011 - 03:06 AM.

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Man CEF is fishing the heck out of you guys.



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