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Helu, Carter, Powell, etc; (1 Viewer)

Multiple Scores

Multiple Scores

Footballguy
It seems we keep hearing how Helu, Delone Carter, Powell, Hunter and to some extent Taiwan Jones, Johnny White and Jaquizz Rogers. These are the 4th/5th round gems, gack...

History lesson, In the last 10 years Michael Turner in 2004 is by far the best 4th/5th rounder. The next best are Marion Barber and Brandon Jacobs in 2005. Then we get down to the next best are Timmay Hightower, Ryan Torain, Mike Goodson and Michael Bush.

That's it folks, not much to see here. 10 years and 3 players worthy of a 1st round fantasy rookie pick and the best one by far you had to wait 4 years to do squat.

IRREFUTABLE PROOF

Enjoy and please give it a rest.

 
Do you also not need to consider the possibility that a deeper than average rb class (greater supply) pushed down the value of individuals and that these players may typically be drafted higher in another year?

Not saying you're wrong, just need to consider all possibilities.

 
'Multiple Scores said:
It seems we keep hearing how Helu, Delone Carter, Powell, Hunter and to some extent Taiwan Jones, Johnny White and Jaquizz Rogers. These are the 4th/5th round gems, gack...

History lesson, In the last 10 years Michael Turner in 2004 is by far the best 4th/5th rounder. The next best are Marion Barber and Brandon Jacobs in 2005. Then we get down to the next best are Timmay Hightower, Ryan Torain, Mike Goodson and Michael Bush.

That's it folks, not much to see here. 10 years and 3 players worthy of a 1st round fantasy rookie pick and the best one by far you had to wait 4 years to do squat.

IRREFUTABLE PROOF

Enjoy and please give it a rest.
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I think you make a good point about the players being over-hyped to some extent. I still think some of them are worth a shot/gamble depending on your team makeup, but thinking they will bring you a ship in one year is silly. Some of the players you named are not even that bad, and have done some things to an extent - but still nothing spectacular..
 
'Donsmith753 said:
Do you also not need to consider the possibility that a deeper than average rb class (greater supply) pushed down the value of individuals and that these players may typically be drafted higher in another year? Not saying you're wrong, just need to consider all possibilities.
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good point. If you really think this then maybe this is the year you get that exception, just keep in mind using a first rounder on that most rare exception. Just don't be one of those guys wasting first rounders year in and out. I have heard your sentiment about this years class. The DL class was great but oline,safety and lb were horrible.
 
'Donsmith753 said:
Do you also not need to consider the possibility that a deeper than average rb class (greater supply) pushed down the value of individuals and that these players may typically be drafted higher in another year? Not saying you're wrong, just need to consider all possibilities.
Click to expand...
There were 29 RBs drafted this year. There have been 25+ RBs drafted in 2 of the last 3 yrs. In 2007, they drafted a total of 28 RBs (only 1 less than this year). That year saw FIVE guys picked in the 1st round alone and another SIX guys taken in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. I don't get this "deeper than average" RB class. It's not. In fact, I think it's a weaker than average RB class. If these guys were good enough to be drafted higher, teams wouldn't have let them slip.
 
Nobody said that most/all the 3rd/4th.5th round RBs from this class were all going to be good. But of course you will find a thread saying each one will because everyone has their favorites. I will say that this years class probably has alot of 4th/5th rounders that would have gone higher in past or future drafts due to the depth at the position. With that though there might only be a couple/few that go on to be guys i would want in starting lineup. The more of them i take the better chance i have at getting the good one(s).

Again though, nobody is saying Helu or Hunter are the next Terrell Davis or Frank Gore. But there is a chance and its worth a 2nd round rookie pick in the event they are. What else are you going to get there, the sure thing that is Cam Newton or Leonard Hankerson? Its all about the price of the lottery ticket, the odds it hits and the payout if it does.

 
I have no problem with what you're saying since you said 2nd round rookie pick. Guys like Baldwin, Torrey smith and Randall Cobb should not be getting drafted under delone Carter, Helu, etc. Like I said I'm just giving out advice and a history lesson. If people want to spend a 1st on a 3% chance at a Michael turner or a 9% chance at turner, barber, Jacobs over a 40-50% chance of a wr1,wr2,wr3 then that's a choice.

'Go deep said:
Nobody said that most/all the 3rd/4th.5th round RBs from this class were all going to be good. But of course you will find a thread saying each one will because everyone has their favorites. I will say that this years class probably has alot of 4th/5th rounders that would have gone higher in past or future drafts due to the depth at the position. With that though there might only be a couple/few that go on to be guys i would want in starting lineup. The more of them i take the better chance i have at getting the good one(s). Again though, nobody is saying Helu or Hunter are the next Terrell Davis or Frank Gore. But there is a chance and its worth a 2nd round rookie pick in the event they are. What else are you going to get there, the sure thing that is Cam Newton or Leonard Hankerson? Its all about the price of the lottery ticket, the odds it hits and the payout if it does.
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'Multiple Scores said:
He was an udfa. This is limited to 4th/5th rounders. I see you choose to be offended and swat away helpful advice. Your choice, no skin off my rear end.

'Donnybrook said:
'Multiple Scores said:
If you're smart you will not be offended and learn a neat trick that your other league members have not and gain an advantage.
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:rolleyes: Did you lose in your league to some dumb guy with Arian Foster on his roster?
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And more importantly, he didn't cost his owner a 1st round rookie pick. He was picked up off the waiver wire. So really, a horrible comparison pretty much.
 
Thanks.

'massraider said:
'Multiple Scores said:
He was an udfa. This is limited to 4th/5th rounders. I see you choose to be offended and swat away helpful advice. Your choice, no skin off my rear end.

'Donnybrook said:
'Multiple Scores said:
If you're smart you will not be offended and learn a neat trick that your other league members have not and gain an advantage.
Click to expand...
:rolleyes: Did you lose in your league to some dumb guy with Arian Foster on his roster?
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
And more importantly, he didn't cost his owner a 1st round rookie pick. He was picked up off the waiver wire. So really, a horrible comparison pretty much.
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'Multiple Scores said:
IRREFUTABLE PROOF

Enjoy and please give it a rest.
Click to expand...
Best year by year of the day 3 RBs2010 McKnight, Dixon, Karim, Starks

2009 Goodson, Ringer, Scott, Jennings, Peerman

2008 Choice, Hightower, Torain, Hillis, Forsett, Parmele

2007 Bush, Snelling, Bradshaw, McClain

2006 Washington, Harrison

2005 Barber, Jacobs

2004 Moore, Turner, Ward

Not many world beaters, but enough value to not ignore.

 
'Multiple Scores said:
He was an udfa. This is limited to 4th/5th rounders. I see you choose to be offended and swat away helpful advice. Your choice, no skin off my rear end.

'Donnybrook said:
'Multiple Scores said:
If you're smart you will not be offended and learn a neat trick that your other league members have not and gain an advantage.
Click to expand...
:rolleyes: Did you lose in your league to some dumb guy with Arian Foster on his roster?
Click to expand...
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Most shark poolers, IMO, are not Noobs and already know that 4th and 5th rounders are longshots. So no I don't think your advice is helpful whatsoever.
 
'massraider said:
'Multiple Scores said:
He was an udfa. This is limited to 4th/5th rounders. I see you choose to be offended and swat away helpful advice. Your choice, no skin off my rear end.

'Donnybrook said:
'Multiple Scores said:
If you're smart you will not be offended and learn a neat trick that your other league members have not and gain an advantage.
Click to expand...
:rolleyes: Did you lose in your league to some dumb guy with Arian Foster on his roster?
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
And more importantly, he didn't cost his owner a 1st round rookie pick. He was picked up off the waiver wire. So really, a horrible comparison pretty much.
Click to expand...
I think the bigger point is not to judge a player by his draft position, which i agree with. Judging a whole group of players solely by past trends is a good way to hurt your chances at a good rookie draft and success in dynasty leagues. Remember the BMI thing in 2008? Past trends told us that Jamaal Charles, Darren Mcfadden and Chris Johnson wouldnt be very good fantasy backs.
 
'massraider said:
'Multiple Scores said:
He was an udfa. This is limited to 4th/5th rounders. I see you choose to be offended and swat away helpful advice. Your choice, no skin off my rear end.

'Donnybrook said:
'Multiple Scores said:
If you're smart you will not be offended and learn a neat trick that your other league members have not and gain an advantage.
Click to expand...
:rolleyes: Did you lose in your league to some dumb guy with Arian Foster on his roster?
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
And more importantly, he didn't cost his owner a 1st round rookie pick. He was picked up off the waiver wire. So really, a horrible comparison pretty much.
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I was one of the arrogant guys that thought Arain Foster would never amount to much even after he lite it up against Indy. What I was trying to say is that it is better to have an open mind than being a know it all and totally dismissing players due to draft position.
 
'Go deep said:
I think the bigger point is not to judge a player by his draft position, which i agree with. Judging a whole group of players solely by past trends is a good way to hurt your chances at a good rookie draft and success in dynasty leagues. Remember the BMI thing in 2008? Past trends told us that Jamaal Charles, Darren Mcfadden and Chris Johnson wouldnt be very good fantasy backs.
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It's judging players on perceived opportunity, and over-drafting RBs. And with the offseason yet to happen, it really seems like a shot in the dark.
 
'Multiple Scores said:
I have no problem with what you're saying since you said 2nd round rookie pick. Guys like Baldwin, Torrey smith and Randall Cobb should not be getting drafted under delone Carter, Helu, etc. Like I said I'm just giving out advice and a history lesson. If people want to spend a 1st on a 3% chance at a Michael turner or a 9% chance at turner, barber, Jacobs over a 40-50% chance of a wr1,wr2,wr3 then that's a choice.

'Go deep said:
Nobody said that most/all the 3rd/4th.5th round RBs from this class were all going to be good. But of course you will find a thread saying each one will because everyone has their favorites. I will say that this years class probably has alot of 4th/5th rounders that would have gone higher in past or future drafts due to the depth at the position. With that though there might only be a couple/few that go on to be guys i would want in starting lineup. The more of them i take the better chance i have at getting the good one(s). Again though, nobody is saying Helu or Hunter are the next Terrell Davis or Frank Gore. But there is a chance and its worth a 2nd round rookie pick in the event they are. What else are you going to get there, the sure thing that is Cam Newton or Leonard Hankerson? Its all about the price of the lottery ticket, the odds it hits and the payout if it does.
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Over Cobb, I agree. I'll dispute Baldwin and Smith depending on who we're talking about. But as has been said - the reason you see so many threads is, everyone has their fave.
 
'Multiple Scores said:
If people want to spend a 1st on a 3% chance at a Michael turner or a 9% chance at turner, barber, Jacobs over a 40-50% chance of a wr1,wr2,wr3 then that's a choice.
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You're out of your mind if you think the success rate on essentially 2nd round WRs is 40-50%. I agree that taking those RBs in the 1st is absurd but the only one I've seen go in the 1st is Carter and it's been late (1.11 or 1.12). You likely aren't getting Baldwin or Smith at that spot. As for Cobb, if he even succeeds, he is at best the 3rd option in GB for years to come. Maybe that makes him a WR3.
 
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'gianmarco said:
'Go deep said:
I will say that this years class probably has alot of 4th/5th rounders that would have gone higher in past or future drafts due to the depth at the position.
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:wall:
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To go along with this more:

Scouting report

That's one scouting report that only has 8 RBs projected to 3rd or higher and another 3 RBs with average projection in the 3rd/4th. That's normal. And sure enough, there were 8 RBs taken in the 3rd round or higher.

Where is this coming from that keeps being repeated by everyone? Is there truly something special about these guys drafted in the 4th/5th round compared to other years? Why does everyone keep saying this draft is SO deep at RB compared to other years that it just pushed guys down further than they'd normally go? They look just like the other guys that have been drafted similarly in previous drafts.

Here are the guys drafted in the 4th/5th:

Taiwan Jones

Kendall Hunter

Johnny White

Quizz

Dion Lewis

Delone Carter

Bilal Powell

Roy Helu

Anthony Sherman

Owen Marecic

Jamie Harper

I'm not seeing many standouts. There are other scouting reports that I've read and they have similar findings. I'm truly curious what is so special and "deep" about this class and on whose authority that is making that determination. I mean, when I look at previous RBs in the last few years drafted in the 4th/5th rounds, I see pretty similar guys: Leon Washington, Michael Bush, Marion Barber, Jacobs, Sproles, Jerome Harrison, Antonio Pittman, Hightower, Torain, Choice, Javon Ringer, etc. I guess I'm just not seeing guys on that list above and saying "wow, I can't believe they fell". They're just guys, just like every other year at around that point in the draft.

 
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I find it comical that the OP is dismissing Helu because he is a 4th rounder, when the incumbent was a 5th rounder, and the coach has a long history of eschewing high draft pick RBs in favor of less touted ones.

 
'gianmarco said:
'gianmarco said:
'Go deep said:
I will say that this years class probably has alot of 4th/5th rounders that would have gone higher in past or future drafts due to the depth at the position.
Click to expand...
:wall:
Click to expand...
To go along with this more:

Scouting report

That's one scouting report that only has 8 RBs projected to 3rd or higher and another 3 RBs with average projection in the 3rd/4th. That's normal. And sure enough, there were 8 RBs taken in the 3rd round or higher.

Where is this coming from that keeps being repeated by everyone? Is there truly something special about these guys drafted in the 4th/5th round compared to other years? Why does everyone keep saying this draft is SO deep at RB compared to other years that it just pushed guys down further than they'd normally go? They look just like the other guys that have been drafted similarly in previous drafts.

Here are the guys drafted in the 4th/5th:

Taiwan Jones

Kendall Hunter

Johnny White

Quizz

Dion Lewis

Delone Carter

Bilal Powell

Roy Helu

Anthony Sherman

Owen Marecic

Jamie Harper

I'm not seeing many standouts. There are other scouting reports that I've read and they have similar findings. I'm truly curious what is so special and "deep" about this class and on whose authority that is making that determination. I mean, when I look at previous RBs in the last few years drafted in the 4th/5th rounds, I see pretty similar guys: Leon Washington, Michael Bush, Marion Barber, Jacobs, Sproles, Jerome Harrison, Antonio Pittman, Hightower, Torain, Choice, Javon Ringer, etc. I guess I'm just not seeing guys on that list above and saying "wow, I can't believe they fell". They're just guys, just like every other year at around that point in the draft.
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Thats 11 RB's drafted in the 4th and 5th rounds, 2 less than were drafted in last years entire class.

 
'Multiple Scores said:
It seems we keep hearing how Helu, Delone Carter, Powell, Hunter and to some extent Taiwan Jones, Johnny White and Jaquizz Rogers. These are the 4th/5th round gems, gack...

History lesson, In the last 10 years Michael Turner in 2004 is by far the best 4th/5th rounder. The next best are Marion Barber and Brandon Jacobs in 2005. Then we get down to the next best are Timmay Hightower, Ryan Torain, Mike Goodson and Michael Bush.

That's it folks, not much to see here. 10 years and 3 players worthy of a 1st round fantasy rookie pick and the best one by far you had to wait 4 years to do squat.

IRREFUTABLE PROOF

Enjoy and please give it a rest.
Click to expand...
Yea, these guys aren't that great. A lot of people are rolling the dice hoping for the next Terrell Davis, Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, or Rudi Johnson. That's all well and fine, but the odds of unearthing a player of that caliber are fairly slim when you're talking about prospects chosen outside the top 100 of the NFL draft. I haven't drafted Helu, Carter, or Powell in any leagues. Nor have I taken Jones, Hunter, White, or Rodgers (although I think the latter two are interesting deep sleepers). I see a lot of mediocrity here. Then again, it's not like the WR and QB ranks are stocked with can't-miss stars this year.

There's not a lot to like once you get outside the top 4. However, you'll never catch me drafting one of these journeymen over a guy like Baldwin or Cobb who seems to have a much better chance of becoming a productive starter.

 
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'gianmarco said:
'Donsmith753 said:
Do you also not need to consider the possibility that a deeper than average rb class (greater supply) pushed down the value of individuals and that these players may typically be drafted higher in another year? Not saying you're wrong, just need to consider all possibilities.
Click to expand...
There were 29 RBs drafted this year. There have been 25+ RBs drafted in 2 of the last 3 yrs. In 2007, they drafted a total of 28 RBs (only 1 less than this year). That year saw FIVE guys picked in the 1st round alone and another SIX guys taken in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. I don't get this "deeper than average" RB class. It's not. In fact, I think it's a weaker than average RB class. If these guys were good enough to be drafted higher, teams wouldn't have let them slip.
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There were 13 RB's drafted last year and 20 in 2009. Also, this years draft class didnt have any top talents after Ingram, but was deep in mid tier talent, which pushed RB's further down the draft, its a metter of supply and demand. Im not suggesting late first orund talents were sliding to the 4th round, but i think alot of the guys who went in the 4th and 5th round could have been drafted in the late 2nd-3rd round on other years drafts. Think Toby Gerhart would have been drafted in the 2nd round this year, Ben Tate?
 
'Go deep said:
Think Toby Gerhart would have been drafted in the 2nd round this year, Ben Tate?
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Gerhart? Yes. Tate? He wasn't any worse of a prospect than Murray or Ridley. I don't think this is a great RB class. I think people are just overdrafting these guys because they landed in great situations. Think Carter would be a hot commodity if he had landed in Philly? How about Helu in Dallas? Powell in Minnesota? People are looking for the home run. Thing is, they're far more likely to get the next Cedric Cobbs than the next Rudi Johnson. My strategy this year is to let the other teams pull the slot machine lever in the first two rounds and scoop some of the less trendy picks like Dion Lewis and JacQuizz Rodgers deeper in the draft.
 
You say I'm out of my mind. Ok. What I find a bit wacko is in 16 zealots drafts on average Helu is 9 and Baldwin is 11. Personally I would say Baldwin has a MUCH better chance at success.

'Hoosier16 said:
'Multiple Scores said:
If people want to spend a 1st on a 3% chance at a Michael turner or a 9% chance at turner, barber, Jacobs over a 40-50% chance of a wr1,wr2,wr3 then that's a choice.
Click to expand...
You're out of your mind if you think the success rate on essentially 2nd round WRs is 40-50%. I agree that taking those RBs in the 1st is absurd but the only one I've seen go in the 1st is Carter and it's been late (1.11 or 1.12). You likely aren't getting Baldwin or Smith at that spot. As for Cobb, if he even succeeds, he is at best the 3rd option in GB for years to come. Maybe that makes him a WR3.
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'gianmarco said:
I'm not seeing many standouts. There are other scouting reports that I've read and they have similar findings. I'm truly curious what is so special and "deep" about this class and on whose authority that is making that determination. I mean, when I look at previous RBs in the last few years drafted in the 4th/5th rounds, I see pretty similar guys: Leon Washington, Michael Bush, Marion Barber, Jacobs, Sproles, Jerome Harrison, Antonio Pittman, Hightower, Torain, Choice, Javon Ringer, etc. I guess I'm just not seeing guys on that list above and saying "wow, I can't believe they fell". They're just guys, just like every other year at around that point in the draft.
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I believe the reason certain players are being hyped is because of the situation they have been drafted. I would imagine the reason so many are high on say Helu is because they believe he is going to be a starter at some point during the season. Helu was a great college RB, but the fact he is thought to be potential every week starter is very appealing to some who need RBs. You can swap Helu's name for another RB this year who is being hyped up and you have the same story.I think another aspect of this is that many feel that if you pick the right RB it will payoff much more then a WR. Of course it's more likely to pick a WR and get value from a pick, but hitting the target for the next big RB before everyone else can be more exciting and rewarding.
 
'Multiple Scores said:
You say I'm out of my mind. Ok. What I find a bit wacko is in 16 zealots drafts on average Helu is 9 and Baldwin is 11. Personally I would say Baldwin has a MUCH better chance at success.

'Hoosier16 said:
'Multiple Scores said:
If people want to spend a 1st on a 3% chance at a Michael turner or a 9% chance at turner, barber, Jacobs over a 40-50% chance of a wr1,wr2,wr3 then that's a choice.
Click to expand...
You're out of your mind if you think the success rate on essentially 2nd round WRs is 40-50%. I agree that taking those RBs in the 1st is absurd but the only one I've seen go in the 1st is Carter and it's been late (1.11 or 1.12). You likely aren't getting Baldwin or Smith at that spot. As for Cobb, if he even succeeds, he is at best the 3rd option in GB for years to come. Maybe that makes him a WR3.
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Actually, I said you were out of your mind if you claimed that 2nd round WRs were a 40-50% success rate.I'm not familiar with Zealots leagues. But, I've seen plenty of people post about how they lean heavily towards RBs. In a RB heavy league, I can see people taking more early risks with RBs. But, as I said above, I haven't seen in my leagues a case of Baldwin going after Helu.
 
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'EBF said:
'Go deep said:
Think Toby Gerhart would have been drafted in the 2nd round this year, Ben Tate?
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Gerhart? Yes. Tate? He wasn't any worse of a prospect than Murray or Ridley. I don't think this is a great RB class. I think people are just overdrafting these guys because they landed in great situations. Think Carter would be a hot commodity if he had landed in Philly? How about Helu in Dallas? Powell in Minnesota? People are looking for the home run. Thing is, they're far more likely to get the next Cedric Cobbs than the next Rudi Johnson. My strategy this year is to let the other teams pull the slot machine lever in the first two rounds and scoop some of the less trendy picks like Dion Lewis and JacQuizz Rodgers deeper in the draft.
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I dont think this is a great RB class, it has the worst top end talent of any draft since i started playing dynasty leagues. What i do believe it has is alot of midrange talent, players like Gerhart, Tate, etc. When you have 10 of those players instead of 3 or 4 it will push some back a round or so further than they might have otherwise. Youre also right about the situation, as i am debating in another thread, i look at talent first and go from there. You cant totally ignore situation either. There are alot of average/good RB's who have put up numbers they wouldnt normally be capable of if not for their situation. Just so happens alot of those players have played under Mike Shanahan/Gary Kubiak.Which is part of the reason why the only 4th(or later) round RB i will consider between picks 12-18 is Roy Helu. One more thing, is Rodgers really falling that much further than the others in your leagues? Edit spelling
 
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did this really need it's own thread? Could have swore there was a thread around here talking about how 3rd and 4th round RB's don't pan out. That wasn't enough?

Bottom line is that nobody in a rookie draft is a guarantee.

 
Just picked up Cam Newton at pick 20. Helu went late in this draft at 12, carter at 14, Hunter at 15.

I am not a fan of Cam at all yet if were talking lottery tickets I think his upside is far beyond the 3 rbs I mentioned. What are the odds the #1 overall NFL draft pick has success.

 
'Multiple Scores said:
Just picked up Cam Newton at pick 20. Helu went late in this draft at 12, carter at 14, Hunter at 15. I am not a fan of Cam at all yet if were talking lottery tickets I think his upside is far beyond the 3 rbs I mentioned. What are the odds the #1 overall NFL draft pick has success.
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Not all #1 picks are created equal, nor 4th rounds picks, which is the point i have been trying to make. Look at each player, and take everything into account, not just his draft position. Cam Newton is decent value at 20, but even if he does end up as the starter in Carolina, what is the payoff? You will likely have to wait at least 3 years, and even then, what are the odds he is ever better than a low end QB1? I can grab a low end QB 1 for next to nothing in dynasty leagues right now, and i dont even have to wait 3 years or take the risk that he will bust.
 
'Multiple Scores said:
You say I'm out of my mind. Ok. What I find a bit wacko is in 16 zealots drafts on average Helu is 9 and Baldwin is 11. Personally I would say Baldwin has a MUCH better chance at success.

'Hoosier16 said:
'Multiple Scores said:
If people want to spend a 1st on a 3% chance at a Michael turner or a 9% chance at turner, barber, Jacobs over a 40-50% chance of a wr1,wr2,wr3 then that's a choice.
Click to expand...
You're out of your mind if you think the success rate on essentially 2nd round WRs is 40-50%. I agree that taking those RBs in the 1st is absurd but the only one I've seen go in the 1st is Carter and it's been late (1.11 or 1.12). You likely aren't getting Baldwin or Smith at that spot. As for Cobb, if he even succeeds, he is at best the 3rd option in GB for years to come. Maybe that makes him a WR3.
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That is the nature of Zealots, it should be pointed out. I agree with your entire premise, but Zealots is extreme. Non-PPR, deep rosters, and flex. It took me a couple of years to realize I was wasting picks, and my team has improved dramatically. The funny thing is, it's not even a controversial position, or it shouldn't be. Drafting marginal RB prospects before 1st or 2nd round WRs, or 1st round QBs that teams are obviously going to hand the ball to, is just absurd. DeMarco Murray was picked at 1.11, well before Newton, Gabbert, or Kaepernick--heck, before ANY quarterback. And I bet that will happen in a lot of leagues. Vereen, Murray, Helu, Alex Green......I mean, no one can really defend that, not with any stats. But they will still do it, these unknown rookie RBs with "opportunity" are like a new drug every year.
 
'massraider said:
'Multiple Scores said:
You say I'm out of my mind. Ok. What I find a bit wacko is in 16 zealots drafts on average Helu is 9 and Baldwin is 11. Personally I would say Baldwin has a MUCH better chance at success.

'Hoosier16 said:
'Multiple Scores said:
If people want to spend a 1st on a 3% chance at a Michael turner or a 9% chance at turner, barber, Jacobs over a 40-50% chance of a wr1,wr2,wr3 then that's a choice.
Click to expand...
You're out of your mind if you think the success rate on essentially 2nd round WRs is 40-50%. I agree that taking those RBs in the 1st is absurd but the only one I've seen go in the 1st is Carter and it's been late (1.11 or 1.12). You likely aren't getting Baldwin or Smith at that spot. As for Cobb, if he even succeeds, he is at best the 3rd option in GB for years to come. Maybe that makes him a WR3.
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That is the nature of Zealots, it should be pointed out. I agree with your entire premise, but Zealots is extreme. Non-PPR, deep rosters, and flex. It took me a couple of years to realize I was wasting picks, and my team has improved dramatically.

The funny thing is, it's not even a controversial position, or it shouldn't be. Drafting marginal RB prospects before 1st or 2nd round WRs, or 1st round QBs that teams are obviously going to hand the ball to, is just absurd. DeMarco Murray was picked at 1.11, well before Newton, Gabbert, or Kaepernick--heck, before ANY quarterback. And I bet that will happen in a lot of leagues. Vereen, Murray, Helu, Alex Green......I mean, no one can really defend that, not with any stats.

But they will still do it, these unknown rookie RBs with "opportunity" are like a new drug every year.
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Vereen was drafted in the 2nd round, ahead of Leshoure, and he went to a team that had a journeyman RB run for 1000 yards and 13 TD's in part time duty. i dont want to turn this into another thread where i talk about Vereen, but i needed to point that out.

What is the upside to drafting one of those QB's ahead of Vereen or Helu, or Murray for that matter? Do you really think Kaepnerick has a decnt shot at being a top 5-8 Qb in the next few years?

Dont get me wrong, i will draft Bradford or Luck in the middle of the first, but what do i want with a bunch of QB;s who will be lucky to ever be a high end QB 2, which are basically worthless.

 
There are gems to be found. There's nothing wrong with taking some gambles depending on your league size and rules. I drafted both Peyton Hillis and Steve Johnson in our rookie draft. They were both 7th round NFL picks. That's from my own team and players that I'm familiar with. I'm sure there are many more serviceable to stud players that were late round picks. Off the top of my head, Domanick Davis was a 4th rounder.

 
'BigJilm said:
There are gems to be found. There's nothing wrong with taking some gambles depending on your league size and rules. I drafted both Peyton Hillis and Steve Johnson in our rookie draft. They were both 7th round NFL picks. That's from my own team and players that I'm familiar with. I'm sure there are many more serviceable to stud players that were late round picks. Off the top of my head, Domanick Davis was a 4th rounder.
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Charles, Bradshaw, Turner, Grant/Starks, Foster, Blount, Greene, and Gore are all guys that come to mind who were drafted in round 3 or later.
 
Nice list. Name all 4th/5th rounders in the past 10 years who are studs?Best I got wasTurner, who sat 4 years behind LT in his prime, doubt he was going round 1. Jacobs, who had tiki in his prime, doubt he went in round 1 either. Marion barber, can't recall anyone in front of him so this counts. Rudi Johnson was 11 years ago and had Dillon. Then we get to guys like hightower, goodson,etc. Hardly usable. So in the last 10 years the best 4th/5th round RB that was going in round 1 of rookie drafts was Marion Barber who was a RB2.

'Go deep said:
'BigJilm said:
There are gems to be found. There's nothing wrong with taking some gambles depending on your league size and rules. I drafted both Peyton Hillis and Steve Johnson in our rookie draft. They were both 7th round NFL picks. That's from my own team and players that I'm familiar with. I'm sure there are many more serviceable to stud players that were late round picks. Off the top of my head, Domanick Davis was a 4th rounder.
Click to expand...
Charles, Bradshaw, Turner, Grant/Starks, Foster, Blount, Greene, and Gore are all guys that come to mind who were drafted in round 3 or later.
Click to expand...
 
I guess I get the point (don't reach), which seems pretty obvious.

However, the attractiveness of some of these guys is that they are:

1. On teams where if they win the starting job, they'd potentially be quite valuable (Indy, Jets, Wash.)

2. Mostly competing against guys that were also recent mid-round picks (Shonn Greene, Ryan Torain)

I was able to get Bilal Powell at 2.12, but due to my needs at RB, he was on my shortlist at 1.12.

 
'Multiple Scores said:
Nice list. Name all 4th/5th rounders in the past 10 years who are studs?

Best I got was

Turner, who sat 4 years behind LT in his prime, doubt he was going round 1.

Jacobs, who had tiki in his prime, doubt he went in round 1 either.

Marion barber, can't recall anyone in front of him so this counts.
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Julie Jones.
 
'Go deep said:
Vereen was drafted in the 2nd round, ahead of Leshoure, and he went to a team that had a journeyman RB run for 1000 yards and 13 TD's in part time duty. i dont want to turn this into another thread where i talk about Vereen, but i needed to point that out.

What is the upside to drafting one of those QB's ahead of Vereen or Helu, or Murray for that matter? Do you really think Kaepnerick has a decnt shot at being a top 5-8 Qb in the next few years?

Dont get me wrong, i will draft Bradford or Luck in the middle of the first, but what do i want with a bunch of QB;s who will be lucky to ever be a high end QB 2, which are basically worthless.
Click to expand...
First, regarding the Pats: I think Belichick has a pretty strong history of using his players as specialists, and none of us will know when that is. It was the main reason I tempered my interest in Aaron Hernandez. 1,000 yards and 13 TDs from a part time guy is pretty clearly an outlier, to my mind. But perhaps Shane Vereen is the guy, the true stud that makes him change his policy. Or maybe it was the back Belichick took later in the same draft. Pats RB situation is not opportunity, it's 4 guys all trying to get some of the same teat. As for drafting one of those QBs.....what's the upside? Yeah? Yes, I think that there's a darn good chance that one or more of them outperforms Vereen, Helu, or Murray. Newton, Gabbert, Locker, Ponder, Kaepernick, and Dalton. That's six guys. None of those guys are worth being drafted over RBs that were afterthoughts before the draft? And listen, I know every player has his fans, but none of these guys had a massive fan club before the draft. Man, I don't even believe in Newton, but his upside is Randall Cunningham numbers. Vick in Philly numbers. I am willing to take that lottery ticket over Demarco freaking Murray.

The upside to these players as a QB2 is they actually make your team. They can fill in. They can be traded. They are currency. They score points. They may actually play in the NFL a few years, unlike Eric Shelton, JJ Arrington (both 2nd rounders, BTW) etc. If we are talking about the same league style (Zealots), we are talking 53 man rosters. All backup QBs are rostered. In just about any dynasty league, a QB that starts has value.

 
'bengalbuck said:
I guess I get the point (don't reach), which seems pretty obvious.

However, the attractiveness of some of these guys is that they are:

1. On teams where if they win the starting job, they'd potentially be quite valuable (Indy, Jets, Wash.)



2. Mostly competing against guys that were also recent mid-round picks (Shonn Greene, Ryan Torain)
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So......the attractiveness of these mid-round backs is they are competing against former mid-round backs?
 
'Go deep said:
'BigJilm said:
There are gems to be found. There's nothing wrong with taking some gambles depending on your league size and rules. I drafted both Peyton Hillis and Steve Johnson in our rookie draft. They were both 7th round NFL picks. That's from my own team and players that I'm familiar with. I'm sure there are many more serviceable to stud players that were late round picks. Off the top of my head, Domanick Davis was a 4th rounder.
Click to expand...
Charles, Bradshaw, Turner, Grant/Starks, Foster, Blount, Greene, and Gore are all guys that come to mind who were drafted in round 3 or later.
Click to expand...
I would bet that out of the group above Charles, Greene and maybe Gore were drafted in the first round of a Rookie Draft. I think that a large part of the original argument revolves around over drafting RB's not drafting RB's in a reasonable position in the draft.
 
These are the ADPs form Pasquino's HyperActive thread:

Player Early Late ADPGreen, A.J. 1 2 1.38Ingram, Mark 1 3 2.13Jones, Julio 1 3 2.50Williams, Ryan 4 5 4.50Little, Greg 4 8 5.75Leshoure, Mikel 4 7 5.88Thomas, Daniel 5 8 6.88Baldwin, Jonathan 4 13 8.63Cobb, Randall 8 13 9.75Smith, Torrey 9 17 11.75Vereen, Shane 5 18 12.25Carter, Delone 9 19 12.38Helu, Roy 9 17 13.88Hankerson, Leonard 12 19 15.00Brown, Vincent 9 23 15.25Murray, DeMarco 10 19 15.63Newton, Cam 11 20 15.75Hunter, Kendall 10 21 16.13Rudolph, Kyle 17 26 21.43Young, Titus 16 27 21.63Green, Alex 15 29 22.57Rodgers, Jacquizz 20 28 23.38Powell, Bilal 15 35 23.43Gabbert, Blaine 17 30 23.88Jones, Taiwan 20 27 24.00Ponder, Christian 20 31 25.88Gates, Edmond 14 35 26.29Salas, Greg 22 34 27.86Pettis, Austin 19 35 28.00Locker, Jake 24 34 28.57Kendricks, Lance 20 38 28.83Jernigan, Jerrel 23 38 30.50Kaepernick, Colin 28 35 31.86Lewis, Dion 29 37 32.43Dalton, Andy 29 40 33.17Scott, Da'Rel 33 34 33.50Mallett, Ryan 33 36 34.50Cameron, Jordan 32 38 35.00Ridley, Stevan 28 42 35.00Bradford, Allen 26 45 35.50Doss, Tandon 31 39 36.50White, Johnny 30 44 36.67Kerley, Jeremy 37 37 37.00Todman, Jordan 36 42 38.33Shorts, Cecil 39 39 39.00Housler, Robert 40 40 40.00Thomas, Julius 41 41 41.00Royster, Evan 38 47 42.00Robinson, Aldrick 49 49 49.00
Just for fun. Which RBs do you think were overdrafted? Carter, Helu, and Powell were on average, all taken after Baldwin, Smith, and Cobb. Which players would you have chosen instead?

 
1 Ingram, Mark NOS RB 1.14 1 2 1.17 28

Trend

2 Green, A.J. CIN WR 2.54 1 7 2.56 26

Trend

3 Jones, Julio ATL WR 3.15 1 5 3.15 26

Trend

4 Williams, Ryan ARI RB 4.5 2 6 4.5 24

Trend

5 Thomas, Daniel MIA RB 4.61 1 7 4.62 23

Trend

6 Leshoure, Mikel DET RB 5.57 2 8 5.57 23

Trend

7 Vereen, Shane NEP RB 9.16 7 18 9.16 19

Trend

8 Little, Greg CLE WR 9.74 6 16 9.75 19

Trend

9 Helu, Roy WAS RB 10.78 6 18 10.78 18

Trend

10 Cobb, Randall GBP WR 11.61 7 21 11.61 18

Trend

11 Baldwin, Jon KCC WR 11.71 6 17 11.83 17

Trend

12 Carter, Delone IND RB 13 8 24 13.06 16

Trend

13 Murray, DeMarco DAL RB 13.13 7 17 13.53 15

Trend

14 Newton, Cam CAR QB 13.62 6 20 13.72 16

Trend

15 Gabbert, Blaine JAC QB 14.56 3 23 14.61 16

Trend

16 Smith, Torrey BAL WR 15.14 7 30 15.4 14

Trend

17 Hunter, Kendall SFO RB 16.2 6 23 16.38 15

Trend

18 Miller, Von DEN LB 16.62 4 32 18.13 13

Trend

19 Locker, Jake TEN QB 19.92 10 30 20.33 13

Trend

20 Brown, Vincent SDC WR 20 9 29 20.38 12

Trend

21 Rodgers, Jacquizz ATL RB 20.2 14 24 22.62 10

Trend

22 Hankerson, Leonard WAS WR 20.54 11 32 20.71 13

Trend

23 Green, Alex GBP RB 21.75 13 32 22.23 12

Trend

24 Kaepernick, Colin SFO QB 22.62 8 29 24.38 8

Trend

25 Ponder, Christian MIN QB 23.22 7 33 24.08 9

Trend

26 Powell, Bilal NYJ RB 23.5 18 37 23.92 10

Trend

27 Young, Titus DET WR 24 17 35 24.09 10

Trend

28 Dalton, Andy CIN QB 24.89 18 32 25.58 9

Trend

29 Amukamara, Prince NYG CB 25 25 25 34.91 1

Trend

30 Salas, Greg STL WR 26.71 16 45 28.09 7

Trend

31 Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE 27.25 22 31 29.67 4

Trend

32 Peterson, Patrick ARI CB 29 21 46 34.33 4

Trend

33 Jones, Taiwan OAK RB 29.6 20 36 31 5

Trend

34 Gates, Edmond MIA WR 30 23 35 30.62 7

Trend

35 Quinn, Robert STL DE 30.75 29 33 32.14 4

Trend

36 Carter, Bruce DAL LB 30.8 19 44 32.12 5

Trend

37 Irving, Nate DEN LB 31.6 24 42 32.57 5

Trend

38 Foster, Mason TBB LB 34.2 23 46 34.33 5

Trend

39 Kendricks, Lance STL TE 34.67 29 41 39 3

Trend

40 Lewis, Dion PHI RB 34.75 29 41 34.83 4

Trend

41 Mallett, Ryan NEP QB 35.8 19 50 35.8 5

Trend

42 Ridley, Stevan NEP RB 38.67 34 42 38.67 3

Trend

43 Watt, J.J. HOU DE 40 38 43 40 3

Trend

44 Moore, Denarius OAK WR 40.5 33 48 48.75 2

Trend

45 Pettis, Austin STL WR 42 38 49 42 3

Trend

46 White, Johnny BUF RB 42.25 31 54 42.25 4

Trend

47 Smith, Jimmy BAL CB 43.5 25 62 50.25 2

Trend

48 Shorts, Cecil JAC WR 44 44 44 52.67 1

Trend

49 McElroy, Greg NYJ QB 45 20 70 51 2

Trend

50 Jernigan, Jerrel NYG WR 45.33 37 60 45.33 3

Zealots ADP. I will come back and post which players I would post over the 4th/5th round RBS soon, anyone else can feel free to give it a shot.

 
'Multiple Scores said:
Zealots ADP. I will come back and post which players I would post over the 4th/5th round RBS soon, anyone else can feel free to give it a shot.
Click to expand...
I kind of thought this was already covered.
'massraider said:
That is the nature of Zealots, it should be pointed out. I agree with your entire premise, but Zealots is extreme.
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If it's only Zealots specific, maybe you'd get a better explanation on their league message board.
 
You aware helu and Carter both went at 9 in some of those drafts and baldwin went 13, cam at 20. Food for thought.

'Hoosier16 said:
These are the ADPs form Pasquino's HyperActive thread:

Code: 
Player  Early   Late    ADPGreen, A.J. 	1   	2   	1.38Ingram, Mark    1   	3   	2.13Jones, Julio    1   	3   	2.50Williams, Ryan  4   	5   	4.50Little, Greg    4   	8   	5.75Leshoure, Mikel 4   	7   	5.88Thomas, Daniel  5   	8   	6.88Baldwin, Jonathan   	4   	13      8.63Cobb, Randall   8   	13      9.75Smith, Torrey   9   	17      11.75Vereen, Shane   5   	18      12.25Carter, Delone  9   	19      12.38Helu, Roy   	9   	17      13.88Hankerson, Leonard      12      19      15.00Brown, Vincent  9   	23      15.25Murray, DeMarco 10      19      15.63Newton, Cam 	11      20      15.75Hunter, Kendall 10      21      16.13Rudolph, Kyle   17      26      21.43Young, Titus    16      27      21.63Green, Alex 	15      29      22.57Rodgers, Jacquizz   	20      28      23.38Powell, Bilal   15      35      23.43Gabbert, Blaine 17      30      23.88Jones, Taiwan   20      27      24.00Ponder, Christian   	20      31      25.88Gates, Edmond   14      35      26.29Salas, Greg 	22      34      27.86Pettis, Austin  19      35      28.00Locker, Jake    24      34      28.57Kendricks, Lance        20      38      28.83Jernigan, Jerrel        23      38      30.50Kaepernick, Colin   	28      35      31.86Lewis, Dion 	29      37      32.43Dalton, Andy    29      40      33.17Scott, Da'Rel   33      34      33.50Mallett, Ryan   33      36      34.50Cameron, Jordan 32      38      35.00Ridley, Stevan  28      42      35.00Bradford, Allen 26      45      35.50Doss, Tandon    31      39      36.50White, Johnny   30      44      36.67Kerley, Jeremy  37      37      37.00Todman, Jordan  36      42      38.33Shorts, Cecil   39      39      39.00Housler, Robert 40      40      40.00Thomas, Julius  41      41      41.00Royster, Evan   38      47      42.00Robinson, Aldrick   	49      49      49.00
Just for fun. Which RBs do you think were overdrafted? Carter, Helu, and Powell were on average, all taken after Baldwin, Smith, and Cobb. Which players would you have chosen instead?
Click to expand...
 
disappointed in the weak response from the OP, there are outliers in statistics. Just the way it is when dealing with human judgement.

I think most people would pick Baldwin over any of the backs ranked 5-10 on their board

As I've said before Cobb, Smith, and Hankerson all have just as much risk involved with them. Cobb may be cheaper a year from now as people get impatient because he won't produce as likely WR4 this year. Smith and Hankerson also aren't guaranteed playing time. When you have Helu & Vereen who are likely going to be given opportunity to battle for a job, it makes sense to draft them ahead of the WR's or in the same range especially in non-ppr leagues. In my mind, Carter could also be in that mix because Indy RB job could be wide open and he has a chance to make an impact just like the WR's.

As far as Newton, I grabbed him at 2.05 in one draft ahead of vince brown & torrey smith, but just behind hankerson; the backs that went ahead of him in addition to the 3 I mentioned above were Quizz, Taiwan Jones, & Kendall Hunter. I wasn't that thrilled with Newton, but he certainly has some upside. The problem is that his value will likely be the same a year from now as he's not going to light up the NFL with young targets and a team that is searching for an identity. He's a long term investment. Picking him today may not generate early returns so it's possible you would just be better off trading for him a year from now because once he struggles people will be disappointed

 
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