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Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player Page Link: Josh Freeman Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
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I'll just start this off with 2 quick hit stats for discussion.

Freeman second half of 2010: 15 TDs/1 INT

Freeman last 2 games: 7 TDs/ 0 INTs; 80+% completions

If you are looking for someone who closed strong the previous season, you found him.

 
I'll just start this off with 2 quick hit stats for discussion.Freeman second half of 2010: 15 TDs/1 INTFreeman last 2 games: 7 TDs/ 0 INTs; 80+% completionsIf you are looking for someone who closed strong the previous season, you found him.
Wow, those are some impressive numbers. I was very high on Freeman last offseason and still very much like him, but I think he might become a bit overvalued after more guys see stats like the ones above. Despite his progression, I see this as a team that wants to establish a run-first mentality and with Blount and his new clone Alan Bradford, along with a solid OL, I think they have the horses to do it.This will especially be true if the defense steps up with a DL full of young (and seemingly exceptional) talent after the last two drafts.Roethlisberger seems like the best comp to me right now for Josh:3700 yds, 27 TD, 10 Int
 
'LawFitz said:
'Wadsworth said:
I'll just start this off with 2 quick hit stats for discussion.

Freeman second half of 2010: 15 TDs/1 INT

Freeman last 2 games: 7 TDs/ 0 INTs; 80+% completions

If you are looking for someone who closed strong the previous season, you found him.
Wow, those are some impressive numbers. I was very high on Freeman last offseason and still very much like him, but I think he might become a bit overvalued after more guys see stats like the ones above. Despite his progression, I see this as a team that wants to establish a run-first mentality and with Blount and his new clone Alan Bradford, along with a solid OL, I think they have the horses to do it.This will especially be true if the defense steps up with a DL full of young (and seemingly exceptional) talent after the last two drafts.

Roethlisberger seems like the best comp to me right now for Josh:

3700 yds, 27 TD, 10 Int
On one hand I think that it's May and by the time most drafts roll around in August Freeman will be a popular "sleeper" pick based on second half stats and he'll likely be gone before he has true value. This assumes he'll equal last seasons production and have a slight increase.On the other hand I see clear progression of fantasy performance and wonder if just a slight stat bump on 2010 numbers is playing it to safe.

9 starts in 2009: 10 TDs/18 INTs; 1,855 yards passing

1st half of 2010: 10 TDs/5 INTs; 1,700ish yards passing

2nd half of 2010: 15 TDs/1 INT; 1,700ish yards passing

The fact that the yards have remained steady in spite of clear progress in the TD/INT area is a bit of a concern. I think that's a reflection on the approach used by the Bucs. I'd like to think the 15/1 TD/INT ratio over the second half is an indication that Freeman is ready to make a big jump in production, but I doubt 2011 is the year we'll see that happen. The Bucs were 10-6 with their current approach and I doubt we'll see much of a change. I do however think he'll get in the endzone a couple time rushing next season. He's too good a runner to be shutout again.

3,600 yards, 26 TDs, 7 INTs, 375 rushing, 2 TDs

 
I am high on Freeman for 2011. Like his targets in Mike Williams, Benn, and Winslow. Can make plays on his feet and score a few TDs on the ground. The NFC South defenses (CAR and ATL)are pretty weak and against NO, TB is going to need to score a lot to win. Solid choice at QB after the first 10 are gone.

3600 yards, 26 TDs, 14 Int

400 yds rushing, 3TD

 
You won’t find a harder working young QB than Josh Freeman. He’s playing out of the spotlight down in Tampa Bay and a lot of people haven’t yet grasped that he’s indeed a franchise QB. He grew up a lot last year, and especially with the game on the line. His overall stats last year were better than his fantasy performance, but he was steady and consistent. This is a young team with a star WR in Williams, another good one in Benn, and a very good receiving tight end in Winslow. These guys are forming a potent core, but for now Freeman is a better NFL QB in real football than fantasy football.

That said, I think it’s a mistake to ignore his maturation in the 2nd half of last season, particularly the sharp decrease in interceptions. He'll face a much tougher schedule, in a conference that is already tough to win in. Freeman, I suspect is going to go deeper in fantasy drafts than he should go. I have him pegged as a borderline QB#1 (read: Value), and would be good to pair up with similarly drafted QB like an Eli or a Roethlisberger.

(att/cmp/yard/td's with rushes/yards/td's)

320/507/3710/24 with 75/335/1

 
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I'll be the first to say, I was absolutely wrong about this guy. As a Jets fan, I was estatic that they moved up to take Sanchez instead of letting Freeman fall to them (as what was widely projected). Not because I was such a huge Sanchez fan, but more so, because I did not want Freeman. After watching him last year, I would not have minded having that guy on my team at all. He was poised, had a wickedly young receiver corps and still managed to make them look good. He is a beast to bring down and already knows this is he is team; not because he happens to be the QB, but because he commands respect.

With that said, I am a little bearish on projections for 2011. (1) He will not sneak up on anyone in 2011. He ended the year with an exclamation point and teams will be ready for him this coming season. (2) Benn is coming off of injury and Williams will be hard-pressed to follow up such a great rookie year with a marked improvement.

When I look back 365 days ago the Bucs were picked by many to be the worst team in the NFL (with STL). Obviously, both teams surprised and while the Bucs are a team on the rise, that rise is not always "true". I see them taking a small step back (say 8-8) before they make their push to be a consistent playoff contender. With that, I project the follwing:

Freeman: 300 completions, 525 attempts, 21 TDs, 13 INTs, 60 rushes, 350 yards, 1 TD

 
Josh Freeman took a step forward last year at the right time for many fantasy owners, at the end of last season. I tend to worry about guys who get too much credit for finishing the season strong. Odds are, it wasn't just because he was progressing as a QB but it was also because he was playing pass defenses at the right time of the year if you're a Josh Freeman owner.

I don't think Freeman is a fluke, I think he's a solld QB 1 who could use some backup help with tougher matchups. If you were to head into the seasson with Josh Freeman as your QB1, then I probably wouldn't wait too long before getting a another solid option. I also think it's interesting that a guy who's 250 pounds hasn't been able to punch a rushing TD in the endzone in his career.

3500 yards, 26 Td's and 9 INT's

375 yards rushing and 1 rushing TD

 
Josh Freeman has improved in every phase every step of his career. He played in only ten games in his rookie season and completed only 54.6% of his passes and had 18 interceptions against 10 passing TDs.

In his second campaign, he increased his completion percentage all the way to 61.4% and his TDs up to 25 against only 6 ints. His receiving corps is young, but talented. Mike Williams was an excellent red zone target and a capable WR #1. His RBs caught 69 passes with most going to Cadillac Williams, who I anticipate will resign with Tampa and has been working out with Freeman. Winslow is an excellent target at TE and hopefully second year player Arrelious Benn will be ready to go at training camp this summer.

I am not a huge L. Blount fan and think that the Tampa offense will maintian or even increase the passing opportunities for Freeman in 2011. He has also been an effective runner when oppotunities are presented, averaging 5.3 ypc for a total of 526 yards in 26 games, or 20 yards per game. I see him using that ability to get in the end zone a few times this year as he matures in his red zone decision making.

Josh Freeman 16 gms 310 comps 495 att. 62.6% 7.5 ypa 3,713 yards 28 TDs 10 ints 75 rushes 405 yds 5.4 ypc and 3 TDs

 
Is everyone still thinking more improvement here? I lost Peyton and am relying on Freeman, but I am nervous.

 
We'll see. They didn't upgrade their personnel so I don't know if I see much of an uptick. I'm monitoring this Winslow injury closely and leaning toward starting Joe Flacco week 2.

 
We'll see. They didn't upgrade their personnel so I don't know if I see much of an uptick. I'm monitoring this Winslow injury closely and leaning toward starting Joe Flacco week 2.
What injury? If you're referring to him not practicing earlier this week, that's nothing--Winslow always misses practices. They never want to put too much undue work on his knee.
 
We'll see. They didn't upgrade their personnel so I don't know if I see much of an uptick. I'm monitoring this Winslow injury closely and leaning toward starting Joe Flacco week 2.
What injury? If you're referring to him not practicing earlier this week, that's nothing--Winslow always misses practices. They never want to put too much undue work on his knee.
pretty sure Winslow will play. I am trying to decide between Freeman and Henne. Henne sure looked good Monday and MIN forced some bad throws by Philip Rivers. Something tells me Freeman might not have a very good day....
 
I loved Freeman as my #2 in my keeper, but im nervous with him as my starter. I have been spoiled with Peyton all these years.

 
I wouldn't be too nervous about Freeman. He'll continue to progress and should finish around QB 10, which is about where he was drafted. What I would be concerned about is the fantasy DOMINATION some of the other QBs showed in week 1. Freeman's not going to put up video game numbers very often it looks like there might be a significant difference between the top 7 QBs and the next 5 QBs. Freeman should be solid and you can win with him if the rest of your team is stacked, but take a look at your fantasy schedule. How many times are you playing against Rodgers, Brady, Vick, Stafford, Romo, Brees, and Rivers over the rest of the season?

 
I wouldn't be too nervous about Freeman. He'll continue to progress and should finish around QB 10, which is about where he was drafted. What I would be concerned about is the fantasy DOMINATION some of the other QBs showed in week 1. Freeman's not going to put up video game numbers very often it looks like there might be a significant difference between the top 7 QBs and the next 5 QBs. Freeman should be solid and you can win with him if the rest of your team is stacked, but take a look at your fantasy schedule. How many times are you playing against Rodgers, Brady, Vick, Stafford, Romo, Brees, and Rivers over the rest of the season?
GREAT posting. I think you nailed my concern here. This should have been clear to me preseason, but it certainly is now. Freeman is in the tier of guys that are startable, but are going to get slaughtered most weeks by the elite QBs. Waiting on QBs looks bad this year if week 1 was any indication.
 
I wouldn't be too nervous about Freeman. He'll continue to progress and should finish around QB 10, which is about where he was drafted. What I would be concerned about is the fantasy DOMINATION some of the other QBs showed in week 1. Freeman's not going to put up video game numbers very often it looks like there might be a significant difference between the top 7 QBs and the next 5 QBs. Freeman should be solid and you can win with him if the rest of your team is stacked, but take a look at your fantasy schedule. How many times are you playing against Rodgers, Brady, Vick, Stafford, Romo, Brees, and Rivers over the rest of the season?
GREAT posting. I think you nailed my concern here. This should have been clear to me preseason, but it certainly is now. Freeman is in the tier of guys that are startable, but are going to get slaughtered most weeks by the elite QBs. Waiting on QBs looks bad this year if week 1 was any indication.
Another Freeman owner here with the same concerns. My expectations of him have not changed since I feel confident he is good for 1-2 TDs and 200-250 yards each week. However, it is looking like I grossly underestimated the gap between the top 7 QBs and the next 5 QBs. Freeman is a safe option but I only overcame my matchup against Brady last week because all the stars aligned with great games from my position players and dud games for my opponent's position players.
 
I wouldn't be too nervous about Freeman. He'll continue to progress and should finish around QB 10, which is about where he was drafted. What I would be concerned about is the fantasy DOMINATION some of the other QBs showed in week 1. Freeman's not going to put up video game numbers very often it looks like there might be a significant difference between the top 7 QBs and the next 5 QBs. Freeman should be solid and you can win with him if the rest of your team is stacked, but take a look at your fantasy schedule. How many times are you playing against Rodgers, Brady, Vick, Stafford, Romo, Brees, and Rivers over the rest of the season?
I think that all the high QB numbers of week one start to come back to earth this week
 
I can identify with the last few posts and you guys summarized my thoughts this year regarding Freeman.

I think when drafting him, I edged him very slightly over a few guys due to the possibility of some rushing yards vs. some other QB's that were available at that time. Hopefully that aspect of his game will continue as at least in the preseason (I know, preseason lolz) he had a rushing TD.

 
I'll be the first to say, I was absolutely wrong about this guy. As a Jets fan, I was estatic that they moved up to take Sanchez instead of letting Freeman fall to them (as what was widely projected). Not because I was such a huge Sanchez fan, but more so, because I did not want Freeman. After watching him last year, I would not have minded having that guy on my team at all. He was poised, had a wickedly young receiver corps and still managed to make them look good. He is a beast to bring down and already knows this is he is team; not because he happens to be the QB, but because he commands respect. With that said, I am a little bearish on projections for 2011. (1) He will not sneak up on anyone in 2011. He ended the year with an exclamation point and teams will be ready for him this coming season. (2) Benn is coming off of injury and Williams will be hard-pressed to follow up such a great rookie year with a marked improvement. When I look back 365 days ago the Bucs were picked by many to be the worst team in the NFL (with STL). Obviously, both teams surprised and while the Bucs are a team on the rise, that rise is not always "true". I see them taking a small step back (say 8-8) before they make their push to be a consistent playoff contender. With that, I project the follwing:Freeman: 300 completions, 525 attempts, 21 TDs, 13 INTs, 60 rushes, 350 yards, 1 TD
:goodposting:
 
I just traded away Freeman in my dynasty league for Bradford and some future draft picks. I like Freeman a lot, but I don't think he is ever goiing to consistently get you multi-TD games. I think Bradford in the McDanials offense might go crazy. (He does need a big time WR added to the offense though.

I have the Detroit QB situation locked up as my starting QB, BTW.

 
I wouldn't be too nervous about Freeman. He'll continue to progress and should finish around QB 10, which is about where he was drafted. What I would be concerned about is the fantasy DOMINATION some of the other QBs showed in week 1. Freeman's not going to put up video game numbers very often it looks like there might be a significant difference between the top 7 QBs and the next 5 QBs. Freeman should be solid and you can win with him if the rest of your team is stacked, but take a look at your fantasy schedule. How many times are you playing against Rodgers, Brady, Vick, Stafford, Romo, Brees, and Rivers over the rest of the season?
I think that all the high QB numbers of week one start to come back to earth this week
You're probably right that we won't have such big numbers from so many guys this week, but I doubt that ALL of the QBs come back to earth. Rodgers and Brady are looking lights out right now and it's nothing more than hoping to predict that they won't continue their assault on the league. I luckily drafted Stafford in all three of my main money leagues and I'm thinking about trying to package him for one of those two guys at some point soon.
 
If only Freeman could put two good halves together. He looked wretched in the first half of both games and brought his team back in the second half.

 

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