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Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

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Thread Topic: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos

Player Page Link: Knowshon Moreno Player Page

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Knowshon has been disappointing. He's been constantly nagged by injuries. Despite his 4.3 YPC in 2010, IMHO he has lacked explosiveness, speed, vision and wiggle. In general he has looked pedestrian.

Now he's in a situation with a developing QB, a new head coach and a team that is trying to find its identity. Sure Fox likes to run the ball, but he didn't bring the Carolina offensive line with him.

I see more mediocrity out of Knowshon in 2011.

950 yards rushing

250 yards receiving

8 TDs

One of the most overrated backs heading into the 2011 fantasy season mostly due to his low floor and low ceiling. Not a good combo.

 
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Three big issues with Moreno

1) Injuries

2) Tebow vulturing TDs near the goalline.

3) Fox generally likes the two back approach.....we'll see what DEN does before the season.

And even when he's healthy, he hasn't shown to be anything but an average NFL RB....just serviceable.

225 car, 950 yds rushing, 7 TD

35 rec, 230 yds receiving, 1 TD

 
In his two previous seasons, Knowshon Moreno has failed to live up to expectations. In his rookie campaign, he averaged just over 15 carries per game with a high of 23 and only four games with over 20. A year ago, he missed three games and averaged 14 carries per game with a high of 24 and only three games with over 20.

He has been a fairly reliable receiver averaging 33 catches per year and 9.0 ypc with 5 TDs on receptions. However, with his inability to take charge in his first two seasons and now being coached by John Fox, it appears even more likely in 2011 that he will see a shared back-field which will continue to limit his chances.

I see Moreno as a good, but not great back in the NFL and like someone stated above, I think this situation definitely needs to be revisited after free agency because I think that there will be another RB added to the mix.

As of now, I will project a similar season to what we have seen in the past two seasons, with a slight downtick based on presumed better competition that Buckhalter, Maroney, Lance Ball or LaMont Jordan. Sounds sadder that he could not command more carries against that illustrious competition.

Moreno 16 gms 210 rush 882 yds 4.2 ypc 44 targets 36 catches 288 yds 8.0 ypc and 7 total TDs

 
I think rumors of his demise are being greatly exaggerated. I think he'll make a fine RB2 and will have over 1000 yards rushing, add another 500 receiving, and total at least 10 TDs.

I sense a McFadden like breakout year.

Maybe that's just wishful thinking since I have him in a dynasty league.

 
I think rumors of his demise are being greatly exaggerated. I think he'll make a fine RB2 and will have over 1000 yards rushing, add another 500 receiving, and total at least 10 TDs.I sense a McFadden like breakout year.Maybe that's just wishful thinking since I have him in a dynasty league.
You should trade him before they bring in Williams and he loses all his value.160 car, 655 yards, 4 TD's, 28 rec, 245 yards, 1 TD
 
I think rumors of his demise are being greatly exaggerated. I think he'll make a fine RB2 and will have over 1000 yards rushing, add another 500 receiving, and total at least 10 TDs.

I sense a McFadden like breakout year.

Maybe that's just wishful thinking since I have him in a dynasty league.
You should trade him before they bring in Williams and he loses all his value.160 car, 655 yards, 4 TD's, 28 rec, 245 yards, 1 TD
Another thing that has taken on a life of its own.
 
Nothing I could write in this spotlight could hold a candle to the damning evidence by FBG's own Cecil Lammey:

Just saw this thread, and no I'm not a homer. I cover the Broncos (and the league) but am a Steelers fan. The Broncos are looking to add another RB via free agency, as John Fox said in his press conference last Saturday (I wasn't there, I was in NYC at Radio City for the draft). Fox went four deep in Carolina, and I expect him to build that type of ground game eventually in Denver. Moreno is limited by several things. First is his propensity to get dinged up. He just hasn't stayed healthy, and at that position you have to stay healthy and produce or you will be replaced. Second, he still slips too much when changing direction. he even changed cleats (brands) this last year and still had trouble keeping his feet. He can process a hole/cutback lane quickly but his body can't keep up with his brain. Next, he is limited when he gets to the second level. It's rare when he does, but I can count the runs on one hand from 2010 where he actually showed a move to evade once past the line. Too often he will almost look surprised that he made it to that level, his brain will freeze and then he'll look for the nearest contact. He lacks big play ability. Most of his long runs will be around 20 yards, and I would be surprised if he ever broke off a 60 yard run. Last year I believe his biggest play was on a screen pass that went about 40 yards. Moreno is not a dominant runner who can take over a game. He has not shown the ability to create for himself at the pro level. Being a great runner in the NFL is about creating space. you can do that a number of different ways...you can blast over guys, creating space - you can give a shoulder dip to create space - you can give a defender the 'dead leg' then take it away, creating space - you need to create doubt/hesitation in a defender to freeze him - even momentarily - so you can get around him. Defenders who line up Moreno, tackle Moreno - end of story. Fox RBBC, Tebow stealing GL carries, etc = Moreno never living up to his draft status. Depending on who they get in free agency or trades (Orton for Beanie Wells has been tossed around) will depend on how I project him this year. I was on board with Moreno when he came out of college. So far in the pros he's been nothing but an incredible disappointment.
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=590656&st=0He later compares Jason Snelling favorably to Moreno.
I'd take Snelling over Moreno as a feature back any day.
That's all we need to know about Moreno IMO. I cannot state it better.
 
I guess it matters a great deal on the scoring system in the league because, yes, he's seemingly bitten by buzzard's luck so far but man, when he plays, he's an easy top 12 RB in my PPR league. Seems like he always gets 17-20 points. I am not nearly as down on him as others seem to be and the Tebow thing means little to me because if you watch Moreno, you know he's more of a big play scorer than the guy the broncos ever had lining up at the goal line.

I think people overreact in general. We don't know if he will have a real RBBC or if the Broncos bring in a true backup but even if they bring in a guy, a RB like Moreno could still easily have an Ahmad bradshaw type year in a John fox offense (thinking they bring in a guy that IS more of the grinder, bigger back)...and that's not bad at all..that's like a top 15-18 RB in my leagues. Would take it gladly; especially if people are fire selling Moreno.

 
How can Moreno "easily" have a Bradshaw like year? The guy hasn't shown he is remotely as good a runner as Bradshaw, and doesn't seem to be able to play through pain.

Also, if he's not effective this year he will lose his job. For those touting him as a great ppr option, that only works if he's on the field. So far he looks replaceable, and those types of RBs never have job security.

 
Nothing I could write in this spotlight could hold a candle to the damning evidence by FBG's own Cecil Lammey:

Just saw this thread, and no I'm not a homer. I cover the Broncos (and the league) but am a Steelers fan. The Broncos are looking to add another RB via free agency, as John Fox said in his press conference last Saturday (I wasn't there, I was in NYC at Radio City for the draft). Fox went four deep in Carolina, and I expect him to build that type of ground game eventually in Denver. Moreno is limited by several things. First is his propensity to get dinged up. He just hasn't stayed healthy, and at that position you have to stay healthy and produce or you will be replaced. Second, he still slips too much when changing direction. he even changed cleats (brands) this last year and still had trouble keeping his feet. He can process a hole/cutback lane quickly but his body can't keep up with his brain. Next, he is limited when he gets to the second level. It's rare when he does, but I can count the runs on one hand from 2010 where he actually showed a move to evade once past the line. Too often he will almost look surprised that he made it to that level, his brain will freeze and then he'll look for the nearest contact. He lacks big play ability. Most of his long runs will be around 20 yards, and I would be surprised if he ever broke off a 60 yard run. Last year I believe his biggest play was on a screen pass that went about 40 yards. Moreno is not a dominant runner who can take over a game. He has not shown the ability to create for himself at the pro level. Being a great runner in the NFL is about creating space. you can do that a number of different ways...you can blast over guys, creating space - you can give a shoulder dip to create space - you can give a defender the 'dead leg' then take it away, creating space - you need to create doubt/hesitation in a defender to freeze him - even momentarily - so you can get around him. Defenders who line up Moreno, tackle Moreno - end of story. Fox RBBC, Tebow stealing GL carries, etc = Moreno never living up to his draft status. Depending on who they get in free agency or trades (Orton for Beanie Wells has been tossed around) will depend on how I project him this year. I was on board with Moreno when he came out of college. So far in the pros he's been nothing but an incredible disappointment.
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=590656&st=0He later compares Jason Snelling favorably to Moreno.
I'd take Snelling over Moreno as a feature back any day.
That's all we need to know about Moreno IMO. I cannot state it better.
Oh, come on. This writeup is ridiculous. "Too often he will almost look surprised that he made it to that level, his brain will freeze and then he'll look for the nearest contact..." and then "He can process a hole/cutback lane quickly but his body can't keep up with his brain. "I'm sorry, I just don't care much for analysis that purport to have broken everything down so perfectly about a player. Maybe when he does well this season you will come back with, "Obviously he has trained his body to keep up with the processing speed of his brain".Moreno has taken over games. Go back and watch Weeks 13 and 14 last season. PFF has rates him as one of the top RB's in the "number of broken tackels" category. All signs point to his mediocrity being a direct result of really poor blocking, and injuries. I will not deny his apparent injury risk, but from what I am seeing in this thread, Moreno could be the best buy low in fantasy football right now.A return to a zone blocking power run game. Zone blockers are already in place. At this point in time there is zero competiion for carries. Foxx had multiple 1100 yard rushers a couple of years ago. In all honesty, them signing DeAngelo is a long shot. DeAngelo, even if he is avialable, will be very epensive nad the team has other bigger needs. RBs are a dime a dozen and they will add someone chepaer than DeAngelo. And don't forget that the o-coordinator is a hold-over. There will no doubt be more passing to RBs than we saw from Foxx the past couple of seasons (it had to be one of the lowest in the league - sorry i'm not researching that stat right now).If he stays moderately healthy I see him getting 250 rush attempts and averaging 4.5 or higher. I also see him getting 40+ receptions.I'm going with 250 carries and 1200 yards rushing, 45 receptions with 400 yards receiving and 9 TDs, which would put him right at a RB10.I'd like to add that I think his upside is significantly higher and not yet been established. People are getting fooled on this one.
 
2) Tebow vulturing TDs near the goalline.
This is one of the more over-blown things I keep reading on this board. A bunch of QBs occasionally get TDs on sneaks or short runs. How many does everyone think Tebow is actually going to get? This isn't the NCAA. If they truly feel Tebow is their franchise QB are they really going to try and get him killed by calling designed running plays for him at the goal line? Would he be more effective than Moreno or whatever other RB they have in there? I can't see it.Moreno when healthy isn't a dynamic talent, but a smart efficient, deceptively powerful rusher in the mode of a Curtis Martin. He doesn't "wow" you but he gets the job done. One of these seasons he'll stay healthy and surprise people. 1,080 yards 7 TDs; 41 receptions 320 yards 2 TDs
 
Moreno when healthy isn't a dynamic talent, but a smart efficient, deceptively powerful rusher in the mode of a Curtis Martin. He doesn't "wow" you but he gets the job done. One of these seasons he'll stay healthy and surprise people. 1,080 yards 7 TDs; 41 receptions 320 yards 2 TDs
I like the Curtis Martin comparison...nice job here. :thumbup:
 
4.5 or higher? 4.5 ypc is Moreno's floor?
I'm giving my prediction for the season. Based on everything I think I know about Moreno adn the situation at this point in time, my prediction is 4.5 YPC, but could see close to 5 YPC. So yea, my guess is 4.5-5.0 YPC this season.I predict based on probabilities. I understand the chances of him averaging less than 4.5 YPC are not insignificant, but I think his chances of 4.5 YPC or better, are higher then averaging less than 4.5 YPC. That's all.
 
Nothing I could write in this spotlight could hold a candle to the damning evidence by FBG's own Cecil Lammey:

Just saw this thread, and no I'm not a homer. I cover the Broncos (and the league) but am a Steelers fan. The Broncos are looking to add another RB via free agency, as John Fox said in his press conference last Saturday (I wasn't there, I was in NYC at Radio City for the draft). Fox went four deep in Carolina, and I expect him to build that type of ground game eventually in Denver. Moreno is limited by several things. First is his propensity to get dinged up. He just hasn't stayed healthy, and at that position you have to stay healthy and produce or you will be replaced. Second, he still slips too much when changing direction. he even changed cleats (brands) this last year and still had trouble keeping his feet. He can process a hole/cutback lane quickly but his body can't keep up with his brain. Next, he is limited when he gets to the second level. It's rare when he does, but I can count the runs on one hand from 2010 where he actually showed a move to evade once past the line. Too often he will almost look surprised that he made it to that level, his brain will freeze and then he'll look for the nearest contact. He lacks big play ability. Most of his long runs will be around 20 yards, and I would be surprised if he ever broke off a 60 yard run. Last year I believe his biggest play was on a screen pass that went about 40 yards. Moreno is not a dominant runner who can take over a game. He has not shown the ability to create for himself at the pro level. Being a great runner in the NFL is about creating space. you can do that a number of different ways...you can blast over guys, creating space - you can give a shoulder dip to create space - you can give a defender the 'dead leg' then take it away, creating space - you need to create doubt/hesitation in a defender to freeze him - even momentarily - so you can get around him. Defenders who line up Moreno, tackle Moreno - end of story. Fox RBBC, Tebow stealing GL carries, etc = Moreno never living up to his draft status. Depending on who they get in free agency or trades (Orton for Beanie Wells has been tossed around) will depend on how I project him this year. I was on board with Moreno when he came out of college. So far in the pros he's been nothing but an incredible disappointment.
First he's arguing against something that no one is arguing. No one said that Moreno is "great" or a "dominant runner who can take over a game". In the era of RBBC's few RBs will fit those descriptions. Moreno's only missed 3 games in 2 years, so the injury tag doesn't fit. And as far as being "an incredible disappointment", what were we expecting from him? He's had 2300 yards and 17 TDs in 2 years. That said, I expect about 15 carries/game for 960 yards, with another 300 receiving yards and 8 TDs.
 
Moreno is a good back and will only get better. I see a lot of garbage in this thread and from a sportswriter in Denver recently.

 
4.5 or higher? 4.5 ypc is Moreno's floor?
I'm giving my prediction for the season. Based on everything I think I know about Moreno adn the situation at this point in time, my prediction is 4.5 YPC, but could see close to 5 YPC. So yea, my guess is 4.5-5.0 YPC this season.I predict based on probabilities. I understand the chances of him averaging less than 4.5 YPC are not insignificant, but I think his chances of 4.5 YPC or better, are higher then averaging less than 4.5 YPC. That's all.
Moreno isn't going to sniff 5.0 YPC...this much I can promise you.
 
Moreno is a good back and will only get better. I see a lot of garbage in this thread and from a sportswriter in Denver recently.
What an incredibly insightful post! Moreno is by no means spectacular, but right now he is the 19th and 22nd RB of the board (PPR) at MFL and FFC. To me, that sounds like pretty good value. Even if he will share part of the workload, he should still get a good amount of receptions. It's not a given that D-Will becomes a Bronco come free agency time, so right now we should expect him to at least get the majority of the carries in an offense that will feature the ground game. Moreno is not spectacular, but that doesn't mean he can't be a very useful fantasy player.
 
Moreno when healthy isn't a dynamic talent, but a smart efficient, deceptively powerful rusher in the mode of a Curtis Martin. He doesn't "wow" you but he gets the job done. One of these seasons he'll stay healthy and surprise people. 1,080 yards 7 TDs; 41 receptions 320 yards 2 TDs
I like the Curtis Martin comparison...nice job here. :thumbup:
except Curtis was a notorious hard worker and team first guy. All signs point to the opposite for Moreno. Not the kind of guy to get by with less talent while lacking that "hard worker" gene
 
4.5 or higher? 4.5 ypc is Moreno's floor?
That was my reaction as well. Plus, people are saying he's going to do that with a sub-par offensive line?I just don't see it.
Man, people are so biased based on stat lines. You can not overlook critical factors that play a huge role in those stat lines. Just like everyone writing off LT as if his "decline" in SD had nothing to do with a drop in o-line performance and his injuries. Then when he busts out the gate last season everyone starts backpedalling.Moreno started the 2010 the season with a hamstring tear and returned to action Week 6, fresh off a major injury against the Jets. By all account he should struggle immensely coming off of that injury against one of the leagues best defenses. He is given 12 carries and manages 48 yards. Not a bad comeback-from-injury game.So that game initiated his streak of mostly-helathy games last year. Here are those games...6 4.8 vs Jets (P) 12 48 1 7 24.0 vs Raiders 14 53 0 3 37 2 6 8 9.9 at 49ers 11 40 0 4 19 4 9 Bye 10 24.6 vs Chiefs 22 106 0 3 50 1 3 11 25.0 at Chargers 13 58 1 0 7 62 7 12 23.8 vs Rams 12 56 1 1 6 62 9 13 18.5 at Chiefs 23 161 0 1 14 3 14 22.3 at Cardinals 19 81 1 0 5 32 7 So over an 8 game stretch he had: 126 Carries for 603 yards and 29 receptions for 276 receiving yards and 6 total TDsYard per carry were 4.78 (you still guaranteeing he won't sniff 5 ypc in a better running offense? that's a pretty bold prediction to me)Over 16 weeks those stats would have been 252 Carries 1204 yards 58 receptions 552 receiving yards with 12 total TDs. That's 305 fantasy points which would have landed him as the #2 RB in the nfl last year. And that's behind one of the worst run-blocking teams in the NFL. Their o-line will presumably start the season healthy. Half the existing o-line were originally selected to be zone blockers before McDaniels tried to convert them. Now they are going back to zone blocking. Moreno's 2011 season could be absolutely massive. I know that's just upside and speculation, but it is not based on whims and gut. It's based on logical extrapolation.Even in a committee, if he gets around 200 rush attempts and 40-50 receptions he would still be considered a "buy low". As it stands now, however, he is very likely to see 250+ rush attempts and represents one of the biggest Buy Low players in fantasy football right now.Moreno can play ball. That's why scouts were willing to draft him so high. Elways is rpedicting a breakout season. His stats during healthy streaks, behind a horrible run-blocking line, back this up. I don't know if he can stay healthy, but at his current asking price his injury risk is almost an irrelevant issue.
 
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Moreno showed last year that when he is in the lineup, he is a very solid RB2 in PPR leagues. If the Broncos go with Tebow, they must focus on the run, and one would think that Moreno's #s as an outlet in the passing game could drop since Tebow is more likely to take off running than Orton. Fox is likely to utilize his RBs in a RBBC just like he did in Carolina, and Moreno projects into the DeAngelo role, even though he hasn't demonstrated the same breakaway ability. I don't see why they would spend their $ on DeAngelo when they don't have a bruiser to compliment Moreno's quickness. Shifting to a RBBC may protect Moreno from injuries, but it is the biggest risk one takes in drafting him.

220 Carries 970 yards 42 receptions 380 receiving yards. 8 total TDs

 
Moreno's 2011 seasons hinges on one thing - D Williams

If Denver signs D Willaims, Moreno won't crack the top 35 RB's in the league in 2011

If Denver goes with Moreno as their #1 RB, I think he's a top 10-12 RB, maybe better

 
except Curtis was a notorious hard worker and team first guy. All signs point to the opposite for Moreno. Not the kind of guy to get by with less talent while lacking that "hard worker" gene
Based on what?
Yes. Please explain. First I've heard of this.There were hints about that with Beanie, IIRC, but not Moreno.
Maybe a misinterpretation of the fact that Moreno doesn't work out/stay in Denver in the off-season, which doesn't help his endurance in the thin air?
 
2) Tebow vulturing TDs near the goalline.
This is one of the more over-blown things I keep reading on this board. A bunch of QBs occasionally get TDs on sneaks or short runs. How many does everyone think Tebow is actually going to get? This isn't the NCAA. If they truly feel Tebow is their franchise QB are they really going to try and get him killed by calling designed running plays for him at the goal line? Would he be more effective than Moreno or whatever other RB they have in there? I can't see it.
Maybe you should look at last year's stats.....Tebow scored 6 TDs. Before the end of the year, Tebow came into games for Orton near the goalline.....defenses knew what was coming.....and he still scored 6 times.I highly doubt DEN isn't going to allow Tebow the option of running it in near the goalline....it's a strong part of Tebow's game. Tebow can flat out punch it in near the goalline. So I can't see a scenario where Tebow doesn't score at least 5 TDs on the ground. I would probably project 6 rushing TDs for Tebow, but I wouldn't be surprised if he scored 9 like Vick did last year. That is certainly enough vulturing to severely limit Moreno's upside. To get into the top 10 RBs, you generally need to score 10+ TDs or in PPR leagues catch 50+ passes. Moreno is highly unlikely to do either of these.
 
except Curtis was a notorious hard worker and team first guy. All signs point to the opposite for Moreno. Not the kind of guy to get by with less talent while lacking that "hard worker" gene
Based on what?
I've heard this about him as well. I'm pretty sure it was one of the 'whisper' items on PFWeekly a few weeks back (Broncos veterans quietly grumbling about Moreno's poor work ethic). If I can find a link I'll be back to post it.
 
2) Tebow vulturing TDs near the goalline.
This is one of the more over-blown things I keep reading on this board. A bunch of QBs occasionally get TDs on sneaks or short runs. How many does everyone think Tebow is actually going to get? This isn't the NCAA. If they truly feel Tebow is their franchise QB are they really going to try and get him killed by calling designed running plays for him at the goal line? Would he be more effective than Moreno or whatever other RB they have in there? I can't see it.
Maybe you should look at last year's stats.....Tebow scored 6 TDs. Before the end of the year, Tebow came into games for Orton near the goalline.....defenses knew what was coming.....and he still scored 6 times.I highly doubt DEN isn't going to allow Tebow the option of running it in near the goalline....it's a strong part of Tebow's game. Tebow can flat out punch it in near the goalline. So I can't see a scenario where Tebow doesn't score at least 5 TDs on the ground. I would probably project 6 rushing TDs for Tebow, but I wouldn't be surprised if he scored 9 like Vick did last year. That is certainly enough vulturing to severely limit Moreno's upside. To get into the top 10 RBs, you generally need to score 10+ TDs or in PPR leagues catch 50+ passes. Moreno is highly unlikely to do either of these.
I think you should pay closer attention to the stats. Tebow only scored 2 rushing TDs when he came in for Orton. The other four were scored on passing plays that he was unable to find an open receiver.I'm not a big fan of Moreno, and I think the Broncos bring in Deangelo. Either way, they are both better runners than Tebow. Why would Denver use Tebow a the designated goalline runner?Like dr octopus said, this isn't college, teams aren't going to use their QBs as RBs. The only reason he was running around so much last year was because he was unable to find open receivers. Thats something if he is unable to fix will result in him not being the starter much longer.(if he is even the starter now) How many of Tebows carries last year do you think were designated QB runs?
 
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2) Tebow vulturing TDs near the goalline.
This is one of the more over-blown things I keep reading on this board. A bunch of QBs occasionally get TDs on sneaks or short runs. How many does everyone think Tebow is actually going to get? This isn't the NCAA. If they truly feel Tebow is their franchise QB are they really going to try and get him killed by calling designed running plays for him at the goal line? Would he be more effective than Moreno or whatever other RB they have in there? I can't see it.
Maybe you should look at last year's stats.....Tebow scored 6 TDs. Before the end of the year, Tebow came into games for Orton near the goalline.....defenses knew what was coming.....and he still scored 6 times.
Maybe you shouldn't just look at stats, because those 6 TDs were not all goal-line carries (most were not). Like I said all QBs get a few sneaks (or designed runs) at the gola-line per season. Doing so on a regular basis, not only makes it less effective, but will get your QB killed.
 
2) Tebow vulturing TDs near the goalline.
This is one of the more over-blown things I keep reading on this board. A bunch of QBs occasionally get TDs on sneaks or short runs. How many does everyone think Tebow is actually going to get? This isn't the NCAA. If they truly feel Tebow is their franchise QB are they really going to try and get him killed by calling designed running plays for him at the goal line? Would he be more effective than Moreno or whatever other RB they have in there? I can't see it.
Maybe you should look at last year's stats.....Tebow scored 6 TDs. Before the end of the year, Tebow came into games for Orton near the goalline.....defenses knew what was coming.....and he still scored 6 times.I highly doubt DEN isn't going to allow Tebow the option of running it in near the goalline....it's a strong part of Tebow's game. Tebow can flat out punch it in near the goalline. So I can't see a scenario where Tebow doesn't score at least 5 TDs on the ground. I would probably project 6 rushing TDs for Tebow, but I wouldn't be surprised if he scored 9 like Vick did last year. That is certainly enough vulturing to severely limit Moreno's upside. To get into the top 10 RBs, you generally need to score 10+ TDs or in PPR leagues catch 50+ passes. Moreno is highly unlikely to do either of these.
I think you should pay closer attention to the stats. Tebow only scored 2 rushing TDs when he came in for Orton. The other four were scored on passing plays that he was unable to find an open receiver.I'm not a big fan of Moreno, and I think the Broncos bring in Deangelo. Either way, they are both better runners than Tebow. Why would Denver use Tebow a the designated goalline runner?Like dr octopus said, this isn't college, teams aren't going to use their QBs as RBs. The only reason he was running around so much last year was because he was unable to find open receivers. Thats something if he is unable to fix will result in him not being the starter much longer.(if he is even the starter now) How many of Tebows carries last year do you think were designated QB runs?
Never said Tebow is going to be their only goalline option.I don't particularly care where Tebow's TD runs came from, where they were from close in or from 10-20 yards out....the fact is.....Tebow is a great runner. That's part of his game. I understand that he won't run the ball like he did at UF. But IMO there is no reason to believe Tebow won't score 6 TDs on the ground if he's the starter. He can sneak a couple in from the one....or a naked bootleg from the 5, or he can score scrambling. And I still don't see him being a very efficient passer....he's still raw running a NFL style offense. So he's going to run the ball a lot even if they aren't designated runs.If Tebow is the starter, I don't see Denver being a high scoring team, so if Tebow scores 6 times on the ground, that will likely be a significant piece of the pie, enough to limit the upside of Moreno.Now if they bring DeAngelo, I could discount Tebow's TDs by 1 or 2, since DeAngelo is a stud near the goalline.
 
I don't understand the argument that Tebow (if he starts) wouldn't hurt Moreno (or even D Williams if he's there). If Tebow scrambles and scores from the 1 yard line or the 20 yard line, it's still means that its a drive that Moreno (or whoever) won't get the TD for.

Example - Lets say last year I had both Schaub and Arian Foster. I'm looking good no matter how Houston gets the TD....but then Rackers comes in and kicks a field goal. I get nothing.

If Tebow scrambles and scores from the 25, it just means that the Broncos won't get this drive down inside the 5 and let Moreno pound it in.

 
I don't understand the argument that Tebow (if he starts) wouldn't hurt Moreno (or even D Williams if he's there). If Tebow scrambles and scores from the 1 yard line or the 20 yard line, it's still means that its a drive that Moreno (or whoever) won't get the TD for. Example - Lets say last year I had both Schaub and Arian Foster. I'm looking good no matter how Houston gets the TD....but then Rackers comes in and kicks a field goal. I get nothing. If Tebow scrambles and scores from the 25, it just means that the Broncos won't get this drive down inside the 5 and let Moreno pound it in.
So do we discount other RBs because their QBs may throw a TD pass from 25 yards out? Obviously any TD that does not go to your RB decreases his fantasy value. I was responding to people who are trying to act like Tebow is going to be the goal-line option for the Broncos because he was at UF. Will he probably run for more TDs in close than Peyton Manning? Probably, but Manning is usually good for one or two a year as well. Also Manning is far more likely to toss a two yard TD than Tebow is - so it all balances out.
 
I don't understand the argument that Tebow (if he starts) wouldn't hurt Moreno (or even D Williams if he's there). If Tebow scrambles and scores from the 1 yard line or the 20 yard line, it's still means that its a drive that Moreno (or whoever) won't get the TD for. Example - Lets say last year I had both Schaub and Arian Foster. I'm looking good no matter how Houston gets the TD....but then Rackers comes in and kicks a field goal. I get nothing. If Tebow scrambles and scores from the 25, it just means that the Broncos won't get this drive down inside the 5 and let Moreno pound it in.
So do we discount other RBs because their QBs may throw a TD pass from 25 yards out? Obviously any TD that does not go to your RB decreases his fantasy value. I was responding to people who are trying to act like Tebow is going to be the goal-line option for the Broncos because he was at UF. Will he probably run for more TDs in close than Peyton Manning? Probably, but Manning is usually good for one or two a year as well. Also Manning is far more likely to toss a two yard TD than Tebow is - so it all balances out.
Exactly. How is it any different if Tebow drops back to pass and throws a TD, or drops back to pass and ends up scrambling for a TD? The only TDs that Tebow runs for that will hurt a RB are those that are designated QB runs from inside the 10. Tebow if not going to become their designated goalline back. Some teams don't even use their #1 RB at the goalline back to save the beating he would take. It really boggles my mind how many people think Tebow is going to have that big of an affect on the Denver RBs.
 
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Nothing I could write in this spotlight could hold a candle to the damning evidence by FBG's own Cecil Lammey:

Just saw this thread, and no I'm not a homer. I cover the Broncos (and the league) but am a Steelers fan. The Broncos are looking to add another RB via free agency, as John Fox said in his press conference last Saturday (I wasn't there, I was in NYC at Radio City for the draft). Fox went four deep in Carolina, and I expect him to build that type of ground game eventually in Denver. Moreno is limited by several things. First is his propensity to get dinged up. He just hasn't stayed healthy, and at that position you have to stay healthy and produce or you will be replaced. Second, he still slips too much when changing direction. he even changed cleats (brands) this last year and still had trouble keeping his feet. He can process a hole/cutback lane quickly but his body can't keep up with his brain. Next, he is limited when he gets to the second level. It's rare when he does, but I can count the runs on one hand from 2010 where he actually showed a move to evade once past the line. Too often he will almost look surprised that he made it to that level, his brain will freeze and then he'll look for the nearest contact. He lacks big play ability. Most of his long runs will be around 20 yards, and I would be surprised if he ever broke off a 60 yard run. Last year I believe his biggest play was on a screen pass that went about 40 yards. Moreno is not a dominant runner who can take over a game. He has not shown the ability to create for himself at the pro level. Being a great runner in the NFL is about creating space. you can do that a number of different ways...you can blast over guys, creating space - you can give a shoulder dip to create space - you can give a defender the 'dead leg' then take it away, creating space - you need to create doubt/hesitation in a defender to freeze him - even momentarily - so you can get around him. Defenders who line up Moreno, tackle Moreno - end of story. Fox RBBC, Tebow stealing GL carries, etc = Moreno never living up to his draft status. Depending on who they get in free agency or trades (Orton for Beanie Wells has been tossed around) will depend on how I project him this year. I was on board with Moreno when he came out of college. So far in the pros he's been nothing but an incredible disappointment.
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=590656&st=0He later compares Jason Snelling favorably to Moreno.
I'd take Snelling over Moreno as a feature back any day.
That's all we need to know about Moreno IMO. I cannot state it better.
Here's something to keep in mind...http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/spotlight.php?id=McFaDa00Don't get me wrong. I value Cecil's opinion as much as anyone, and I listen to the audible religiously, but he, like anyone, can be dead wrong.Everyone likes to point to the coachspeak and whispers out of denver seemingly writing this guy off. But all I keep asking myself is "why would they be saying this stuff in public?" And it seems plainly obvious to me that they're trying to light a fire under him, rather than run him out of town.Remember when all the talk in Carolina in 08 preseason was that Dwill wasn't gonna cut it, and JStew was drafted to make up for that DWill mistake (paraphrasing btw, and I have no links, all from memory)? Yeah, that was a Jon Fox orchestrated PR scheme and it worked like a charm for DWill. And its easy to point to countless other examples from other teams of the same tactics.I fully anticipate them bringing in a veteran as they have said, but I can't help but feel like it's more because they lack quality depth, and they want to light a fire under moreno, rather than bring in his replacement. I'll stop short of guarenteeing Moreno will improve, but he has the tools and the talent to do so and its just as likely as not. At worst he can be a perrenial top flight RB2 who flirts with RB1 numbers. At best he can be a stud. Even Cecil himself has said more than once that sometimes it takes a RB a couple of years to "get it". Moreno screams to me that kind of situation. Great buy low.
 
No way is the worst case scenario for Moreno that he is a top flight #2 RB.
Ok maybe that was a little overblown for WORST case long term. But I truly don't feel they will let his skills go to waste on the sideline completely, even if he turns out not to be a reliable every down back, which I think he still very much can be. Actual worst case scenario for 2011: a startable RB2 that can be rostered all season (barring injury) and will very much be a solid piece for your team.
 
No way is the worst case scenario for Moreno that he is a top flight #2 RB.
Ok maybe that was a little overblown for WORST case long term. But I truly don't feel they will let his skills go to waste on the sideline completely, even if he turns out not to be a reliable every down back, which I think he still very much can be. Actual worst case scenario for 2011: a startable RB2 that can be rostered all season (barring injury) and will very much be a solid piece for your team.
I think the worst case scenario is he becomes a handcuff for DeAngelo Williams. Heck, I think if Denver signed Michael Bush, then Bush would be the lead dog in the RBBC. Free agency will dictate what his value will be this season IMO. If they sign someone of a lesser caliber, then Moreno's job is probably safe. If they get a high profile RB, then I wouldn't want to count on Moreno for consistent production.
 
No way is the worst case scenario for Moreno that he is a top flight #2 RB.
Ok maybe that was a little overblown for WORST case long term. But I truly don't feel they will let his skills go to waste on the sideline completely, even if he turns out not to be a reliable every down back, which I think he still very much can be. Actual worst case scenario for 2011: a startable RB2 that can be rostered all season (barring injury) and will very much be a solid piece for your team.
I think the worst case scenario is he becomes a handcuff for DeAngelo Williams. Heck, I think if Denver signed Michael Bush, then Bush would be the lead dog in the RBBC. Free agency will dictate what his value will be this season IMO. If they sign someone of a lesser caliber, then Moreno's job is probably safe. If they get a high profile RB, then I wouldn't want to count on Moreno for consistent production.
Michael Bush is a very average RB. At 27 he has not shown nearly the potential or ability that Moreno has at 23 years of age. Michael Bush gets way to much love on this board.
 
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No way is the worst case scenario for Moreno that he is a top flight #2 RB.
Ok maybe that was a little overblown for WORST case long term. But I truly don't feel they will let his skills go to waste on the sideline completely, even if he turns out not to be a reliable every down back, which I think he still very much can be. Actual worst case scenario for 2011: a startable RB2 that can be rostered all season (barring injury) and will very much be a solid piece for your team.
I think the worst case scenario is he becomes a handcuff for DeAngelo Williams. Heck, I think if Denver signed Michael Bush, then Bush would be the lead dog in the RBBC. Free agency will dictate what his value will be this season IMO. If they sign someone of a lesser caliber, then Moreno's job is probably safe. If they get a high profile RB, then I wouldn't want to count on Moreno for consistent production.
Michael Bush is a very average RB. At 27 he has not shown nearly the potential or ability that Moreno has at 23 years of age. Michael Bush gets way to much love on this board.
Yes, you're right, Moreno has shown amazing potential and ability when compared to the "very average" Michael Bush. Moreno's gaudy ypc sits at 4.0 for his career, while Bush's is at an embarrassing 4.4. Moreno's gamebreaking ability is showcased in his longest run of 36 yds, while Bush has to settle for a measly 67 yarder.
 
The question is not: Will Tim Tebow steal redzone carries from Moreno/Williams/Bush (by scramble, or designed run, or whatever)?

The true question is: Can Tim Tebow lead the offense to the redzone enough for it to matter?

Don't be the guy who is bullish about a certain players' slice of a pie, when that pie looks to be tiny.

 
I think rumors of his demise are being greatly exaggerated. I think he'll make a fine RB2 and will have over 1000 yards rushing, add another 500 receiving, and total at least 10 TDs.I sense a McFadden like breakout year.Maybe that's just wishful thinking since I have him in a dynasty league.
:hey:
 
I think he has to get a bump now that DWill has resigned with Carolina.

Especially with him reportedly being in the best shape of his life.

 
I think he has to get a bump now that DWill has resigned with Carolina.Especially with him reportedly being in the best shape of his life.
Yeah, Denver is not going to pay big for anyone else available and that leaves the older guys that have the name but no longer have the game. If he is going to do it, Moreno needs to make his best "Mcfadden year 3" impression this season.The only thing I think throws a monkey wrench in it at this point is if the Broncos do something crazy like....trade Carolina for JSTEW.
 
Seems like he might be becoming a value pick. The combination of Moreno and McGahee might win some leagues for people drafting wideouts early.

 

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