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Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys

Player Page Link: Dez Bryant Player Page

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[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

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Dez Bryant oozes athleticism but looked a bit unpolished at times with his route running and pass catching. That being said Terrel Owens proved you can get away with a few technical deficiencies early on in your career if you can outrun and outjump defenders so I wouldn't be surprised if Dez follows a similar path.

Another issue for Dez will be targets. Miles Austin and Witten are Pro Bowl players that will want the ball and rarely do you have tier one fantasy players at all three positions.

I'm lukewarm on Dez mostly because of opportunity as I think his targets may see an above average deviation from game to game, Romo has too many weapons and will try to spread the ball while Dez is still refining his game.

65 reception

1050 yards

9 TDs

He'll likely go too high in fantasy drafts for my taste but I wont mind landing him in the middle rounds if he slides because of his high ceiling.

 
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Interesting to compare the numbers that Bryant and Austin put up in the five full games than Tony Romo played ...

Bryant: 18-211-1

Austin: 33-486-2

Highly improbably Austin will out produce Bryant by a 2-to-1 margin this year, but based on the way Romo and Austin have clicked in the past, I'm not inclined to project Bryant as a top-10 WR.

65 receptions

925 yards

8 TDs

 
Interesting to compare the numbers that Bryant and Austin put up in the five full games than Tony Romo played ...Bryant: 18-211-1Austin: 33-486-2Highly improbably Austin will out produce Bryant by a 2-to-1 margin this year, but based on the way Romo and Austin have clicked in the past, I'm not inclined to project Bryant as a top-10 WR.65 receptions925 yards8 TDs
Yea Austin dominated the stats in that period, but I am not sure I would use the first 5 games of a WR's career to draw any meaningful data from.
 
'The Real Hipster Doofus said:
'Hüsker Brü said:
Interesting to compare the numbers that Bryant and Austin put up in the five full games than Tony Romo played ...Bryant: 18-211-1Austin: 33-486-2Highly improbably Austin will out produce Bryant by a 2-to-1 margin this year, but based on the way Romo and Austin have clicked in the past, I'm not inclined to project Bryant as a top-10 WR.65 receptions925 yards8 TDs
Yea Austin dominated the stats in that period, but I am not sure I would use the first 5 games of a WR's career to draw any meaningful data from.
I agree with you on that. But Mike Williams (TB) got off to a better start while playing with a less accomplished QB. The difference? Williams was the top WR on his team right from the start. Bryant wasn't. And Williams is again going to be the top WR on his team, whereas Austin is still very much in the picture for Dallas.
 
Very glad to see the Spotlight threads kick off, to me that is the signal to work on looking at player opportunities for the upcoming season. All my projections will be for a full 16 game slate though at this point I am not sure that will actually happen.

Thanks also to Jason Wood for his efforts on these threads. I appreciate the fact that he also participates and does not allow them to languish.

I do not doubt the talents of Dez Bryant, but I think the combination of his kh (knuckle-head) factor as well as the abundance of other offensive weapons (Austin, Witten, Felix, D. Murray, and maybe still Roy) in Dallas will limit his chances more than most others will think. I doubt that he will be drafted by me.

In 2010, he averaged just over 6 targets per game, with only three games over 7. I think that could rise a little, but will forecast the following:

Dez Bryant 16 gms 115 targets 69 catches 60% 897 yds 13 ypc 8 TDs

 
Dez was playing well when he got injured on a freak play (please for the love of god no more kick returns) but I know they won't listen.

Dez also showed his brillance with that huge game on Monday night against a very tough DF in the NY Giants.

One drawback might be Romo coming back but I am guessing Romo will come to his senses and start throwing #88 the damn ball.

Projections.

90 catches, 1600 yards, 16 TD's

Believe in #88 folks.

 
I watched a lot of Dallas games last year and Bryant looked like the best player on the field to me from about the middle of the season til he got hurt. I think he is the best red zone/ Goal line option on the team. One of my concerns about him for 2011 is that I do not know if you can expect the normal second year wr bump if he does not get a second training camp because of the lockout. I am looking for around 70 rec, 1000 yards and 12 td's

 
From a fantasy perspective Dez might be one the players who could make or break your roster. From watching him very closely last year I can assure you he is already the most talented pass catching option on the Cowboys. However, he is also not a slam dunk FF stud as of yet.

Pro's

-Fantastic hands

-Physical WR with outstanding body control

-Strong offensive team that can spread out defenses and attack in numerous ways.

-The swinging gate at RT should be fixed allowing for a more vertical passing game that Garrett likes to run.

-I project (Have heard Garrett discuss in PC's) that the Cowboys will move away from the 22 package as their base offense and move to the 11 package. This bodes well for the pass game and for Dez.

-Redzone stud.

Con's

-Miles Austin and Jason Witten have to factor in huge when projecting Dez. It will be VERY tough imo to project TD's. A swing of 5-7 TD's up or down is not out of the question because of the strenth of the surrounding cast.

-Injuries. He plays hard and does kickoffs, its not out of the question to see him knicked up and miss a couple of games, although I rarely forecast injuries.

-His off-season has been a bit troubling

Overall

Kid is a player and all heart on the field. It's hard to miss the upside here with an asterisk. Dez will be an integral part of the Cowbows offense.

112 targets

68 receptions

825 yards

10 Rec TD's

1 KR TD

Likely in the range of WR9-WR13

 
'Insiders' have made a lot of hay about how talented Dez Bryant is. I think he'll eventually be the top option in Dallas, the only question is if next year is too soon. If Garrett has his way, Bryant is #1, Austin is the possession man, and Witten goes back to being an afterthought (much the same as he was until last year, when the back-up QB had to step in and make use of the safety blanket).

Dallas LOVES their stars, Bryant will get every chance to shine if he's up for it:

80/1200/12

 
A lot of good comments here. I won't repeat a lot of it.

Dez is the most physically gifted receiver in Dallas. But last year his relationship with Romo was off because he did not know the play book. Romo didn't trust him to be where he was supposed to be. If Romo is the QB all season, Dez's numbers will be dependent upon how well he's learned the playbook.

This is one impact of the lockout. Not having someone stay on top of him and keep him working is likely to hurt Dez more than most. Of all the guys on the roster, he most of all needed this offseason program to develop.

I believe he will have highly volatile numbers week to week. His physical ability will lend to some monster games. But his still-developing mental game will likely cause some bad ones too.

2012 is when I think he ascends to stardom.

I'm going to guess something like 65-800-8. I havent worked up a full Cowboy forecast. But I expect him to be strong in the Redzone and make some big plays.

 
Dez Bryant is a guy that I will try to draft in every league that I am in. Incredible talent, and with Austin on the other side, you can't easily double team him. With Romo back to throwing for 4000+ yards, there will be opportunity for Bryant to shine. It's clearly a WR1a/WR1b situation in Dallas. With the DAL D looking suspect, DAL is going to have to light up the scoreboard to win games. Has a ton of upside.

78 rec, 1100 yds, 9TD

 
90 catches, 1600 yards, 16 TD'sBelieve in #88 folks.
What do you have projected for Witten and Austin out of curiosity?
Start with Romo - 4500-32-15Bryant - 78-1100-9Austin - 85-1200-9Witten - 80-900-5Rest of the team - 1300 yds - 9TDs
right...now you can see the problem with projecting 1600 for Dez
I hear you...of course projecting 1600 is way too high....it's too high even for my top rated WR, AJ.....but I do feel Bryant has that kind of upside.....OK, 1600 may still be too high, but I can certainly see a scenario where Bryant could get 95/1400/13. Who would he take it from? Probably a little from everybody, but I would probably suspect the most would come from Witten. Witten is starting to get up in age, so I wonder when he's going to start slowing down, and Witten isn't usually a TD threat. I wouldn't be suprised to see Romo throw 35+ TDs this year.....DAL is going to need to score....a lot...to win.
 
Isn't witten 28 years old? Plus he is not a burner. I doubt dez gets an uptick anytime soon because witten "loses a step" or gets older.
Witten just turned 29.I didn't say Witten is automatically going to lose a step. What I was saying is that if Bryant realizes his upside, then it is likely to be at the expense of Witten. Plus, if you're Dallas, don't you want to get the ball to your playmakers? Witten is a move the chains type guy. Bryant is your playmaker, along with Austin.So I can see a scenario where Bryant takes away looks from Witten.
 
Dez Bryant is a stud in the making. Don't let the thought of Jason Witten and Miles Austin stealing targets away from Dez worry you because the reality of the situation is Witten and Austin owners should be worried about Dez stealing targets from those guys.

Dez Bryant was the best WR in Dallas 1/2 way into last season. He's still green, meaning he still can run better routes, he still needs to learn how to harness some of his raw energy into positive things but the guy is a stud. I look for him to make a lot of big plays and for Tony Romo to gain a rapport with him that he didn't have due to Dez being a rookie and out most of his training camp.

If you get Dez Bryant as your WR2, you'll be sitting pretty.

75 recpetions

1050 yards

11 td's

5 rushes for 50 yards, no rushing Tds

3 punt/kick returns for Td's.

 
"Me, Romo and Miles, and all of the rest of the receivers, we're getting a great chemistry down,'' said Bryant, who hauled in a touchdown in practice after recognizing his quarterback's signal to the change the play at the line of scrimmage.Depth, at least from proven veterans, is an issue. The Cowboys, facing difficult salary-cap decisions, released veteran receiver Roy Williams last week. Former Cowboys receivers Patrick Crayton and Sam Hurd are now in San Diego and Chicago respectively.Romo suffered a broken collarbone near midway through last season, and the running game was underutilized and generally underwhelming. With journeyman Jon Kitna replacing Romo, Dallas finished ranked 26th in the NFL in passing. Romo has recuperated and Dallas coach Jason Garrett, a former Cowboys quarterback, is eager to expand his offense's verticality.For now, the Cowboys' impact players on the outside start with Bryant and Austin."Dez comes to work every day he's out here,'' Romo said. "When he's here, he just puts his working hat on and he goes out here and runs all day. Miles is the same way. They both have a great work ethic; they both have a great attitude. From a quarterback's perspective, it's fun being out here throwing with these guys over and over again.''
I expect huge things from Dez immediately. A top-5 WR ranking would not shock me. He is a physical mismatch against every CB he'll face.
 
He has the Nicks type of talent without the Nicks situation and that worries me with how he's being viewed. He has the talent to post top 5 WR numbers but I just can't see it as long as Austin and Witten are there and playing at a high level. The rapport Austin and Witten have with Romo is going to hurt...and hurt to the point where he disappoints for big stretches of the season.

I see a 65-900-7 season and what will appear to be a disappointment due to expectations being so high.

 
For people that are high on Dez Bryant's talent, what do you think is a realistic distribution of targets this year? Assume Romo, Witten, Austin, and Dez are healthy for 16 games.

I can't quite bite on him in the 3rd/4th round in PPR despite his potential to breakout, because I don't seem him getting Nicks level targets (128 last year in 13 games). So basically I don't seem him outperforming his draft position without an injury to either Witten or Austin. Thoughts?

 
I just posted in the other Dez thread. Dez is a high risk, high reward play. He'll have some monster games and some stinkers. But the biggest issue is that I doubt he makes it 16 games. He plays WR like Barber used to play RB. He plays angry with an attitude. He takes a LOT of shots will struggling for extra yards.

 
I just posted in the other Dez thread. Dez is a high risk, high reward play. He'll have some monster games and some stinkers. But the biggest issue is that I doubt he makes it 16 games. He plays WR like Barber used to play RB. He plays angry with an attitude. He takes a LOT of shots will struggling for extra yards.

 
talent, athleticism, high risk/high reward.... look these are all things I'm know, too. But how does he get to Nicks numbers without the targets? 128 in 13 games is 157 over a season or about 10 a game. There seem to be too many mouths to feed in Dallas for those numbers.

 
DAL attempted 34 passes/game in 2010. I see a couple more, so 36/game in 2011.

Targets per Game:

Witten: 7

Austin: 7

Dez: 9

Other WRs: 3

Felix: 3.5

Other TE/RB: 2

Total: 31.5

So there is still a few more to divide up. That's my prediction on TGTs in DAL.

In 2010, Dez had 6.1/game as a rookie basically freelancing out on the field. Witten 8/gm., so he loses 1/gm., Austin was 7.5, so loses 8 for the year. Felix was 3.2, so he gets a little bump.

 
Karamooster, thanks for finding and bumping this.

I think the targets question is a legitimate one but also not one that I really concern myself with. I tend to think they will work themselves out. But I will try some quick guesswork.

Last season Nicks averaged over 9.8 targets a game with a catch % of just under 62%. He missed 3 games and finished with 79/1052/11 on 128 total targets. Dez averaged 6 targets a game with a slightly higher catch % at 62.5 and finished with 45/561/6 missing 4 games. And this was as a rookie and having missed much of training camp with the ankle.

So if you base projections on a full 16 games and give Dez another 2 targets (from 6 to 8) a game based on more time on the field/better chemistry with Romo/natural progession as a 2nd year pro you get, ironically, the 128 targets that Nicks had in producing his 79/1052/11, which is close to what a lot of us are projecting for Dez.

And I think the increased 2 targets per game is more toward the conservative side given the increased snaps/development. When you factor in that Romo is a more accurate passer than Eli and Dez already had a better catch % as a rookie and playing part of the year with a backup in Kitna and I think the case is easily made that there will be enough targets to get the kind of numbers some of us are talking about. And the 157 target pace Nicks was on last year isnt really needed.

I do understand the concern of Witten and Austin and being a lot of mouths to feed but again, I think it will work itself out. Plus despite what Rob Ryan says I think this Dallas defense is going to again have trouble stopping a nose bleed and I look for them to air it out a lot in many high scoring games.

 
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'fdctrumpet said:
DAL attempted 34 passes/game in 2010. I see a couple more, so 36/game in 2011.Targets per Game:Witten: 7Austin: 7Dez: 9Other WRs: 3Felix: 3.5Other TE/RB: 2Total: 31.5So there is still a few more to divide up. That's my prediction on TGTs in DAL. In 2010, Dez had 6.1/game as a rookie basically freelancing out on the field. Witten 8/gm., so he loses 1/gm., Austin was 7.5, so loses 8 for the year. Felix was 3.2, so he gets a little bump.
:goodposting: ...but.... In Romo's two best years, 2007 + 2009 when he played in 16 games, he also averaged about 34 per game. 35-36 is assuming the HC goes more pass heavy, which is reasonable. His past WR1 treatment - Austin had 124 in his best season. TO also had 140 targets in Dallas with Romo at QB. Witten is also a steady 125-140 target guy over the past 4 years, and he's not in (much) decline. Austin + Witten's targets leave about 250 for other WRs, TE, and all RBs. It's possible Dez has a third equally large slice in that 125 target range, but I doubt he leads all three in targets so I don't think Nicks 150 range is reasonable. I expect Romo to rely on Witten and Austin once again because it's also a given that Dez will make some mental mistakes this year (on the field). 125 targets, at his catch rate of 60-65 --> 75-80 catches. He might be able to do a lot of damage with that many receptions, but he'll need to increase last years YPC and TD/catch to get above 1.000 and 10 TD. Given that target distribution, I think he's maxing out his value jumping up into the 3rd round in PPR in some real drafts I've done lately.
 
Karamooster, thanks for finding and bumping this.I think the targets question is a legitimate one but also not one that I really concern myself with. I tend to think they will work themselves out. But I will try some quick guesswork.Last season Nicks averaged over 9.8 targets a game with a catch % of just under 62%. He missed 3 games and finished with 79/1052/11 on 128 total targets. Dez averaged 6 targets a game with a slightly higher catch % at 62.5 and finished with 45/561/6 missing 4 games. And this was as a rookie and having missed much of training camp with the ankle.So if you base projections on a full 16 games and give Dez another 2 targets (from 6 to 8) a game based on more time on the field/better chemistry with Romo/natural progession as a 2nd year pro you get, ironically, the 128 targets that Nicks had in producing his 79/1052/11, which is close to what a lot of us are projecting for Dez. And I think the increased 2 targets per game is more toward the conservative side given the increased snaps/development. When you factor in that Romo is a more accurate passer than Eli and Dez already had a better catch % as a rookie and playing part of the year with a backup in Kitna and I think the case is easily made that there will be enough targets to get the kind of numbers some of us are talking about. And the 157 target pace Nicks was on last year isnt really needed.I do understand the concern of Witten and Austin and being a lot of mouths to feed but again, I think it will work itself out. Plus despite what Rob Ryan says I think this Dallas defense is going to again have trouble stopping a nose bleed and I look for them to air it out a lot in many high scoring games.
Nicks putting up those numbers over 13 games is way better than Dez doing it in 16 games. 18.5 points per game vs. 15 points per game PPR. I'm not doubting you that Dez can have a good season, but the hype for him is pushing his ADP way up. You need to draft him in the 3rd if you want him, or risk it and wait till the 4th. But 4.01 is the latest I've seen in some 12 team cash PPR leagues.ETA - give me Mike Williams instead - who already had 128 in 16 games last year as a rookie and is only going up as the clear WR1.
 
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Karamooster, thanks for finding and bumping this.I think the targets question is a legitimate one but also not one that I really concern myself with. I tend to think they will work themselves out. But I will try some quick guesswork.Last season Nicks averaged over 9.8 targets a game with a catch % of just under 62%. He missed 3 games and finished with 79/1052/11 on 128 total targets. Dez averaged 6 targets a game with a slightly higher catch % at 62.5 and finished with 45/561/6 missing 4 games. And this was as a rookie and having missed much of training camp with the ankle.So if you base projections on a full 16 games and give Dez another 2 targets (from 6 to 8) a game based on more time on the field/better chemistry with Romo/natural progession as a 2nd year pro you get, ironically, the 128 targets that Nicks had in producing his 79/1052/11, which is close to what a lot of us are projecting for Dez. And I think the increased 2 targets per game is more toward the conservative side given the increased snaps/development. When you factor in that Romo is a more accurate passer than Eli and Dez already had a better catch % as a rookie and playing part of the year with a backup in Kitna and I think the case is easily made that there will be enough targets to get the kind of numbers some of us are talking about. And the 157 target pace Nicks was on last year isnt really needed.I do understand the concern of Witten and Austin and being a lot of mouths to feed but again, I think it will work itself out. Plus despite what Rob Ryan says I think this Dallas defense is going to again have trouble stopping a nose bleed and I look for them to air it out a lot in many high scoring games.
Nicks putting up those numbers over 13 games is way better than Dez doing it in 16 games. 18.5 points per game vs. 15 points per game PPR. I'm not doubting you that Dez can have a good season, but the hype for him is pushing his ADP way up. You need to draft him in the 3rd if you want him, or risk it and wait till the 4th. But 4.01 is the latest I've seen in some 12 team cash PPR leagues.ETA - give me Mike Williams instead - who already had 128 in 16 games last year as a rookie and is only going up as the clear WR1.
I hear you but I got Dez at 5.04 in my 14 team PPR Monday night which is very competitive and a $250 buy in (just saying it's not some free yahoo league). If he gets Nicks numbers over 16 games I think I got good value. I would not take him in the 3rd of 12 teamers if that's where his value is now.
 
Bought low on Dez last night.

10 team PPR with 4 keepers.

I traded AJ Green (my 4th WR behind Mega, Nicks & Holmes) as well as my 3 and 5 next season

for

Dez, Jets DST and an 8th and 10th round pick next season.

I wasnt the biggest Dez fan heading in but I'm hoping since he's now 100% and with a VERY sweet schedule that he can give me a nice boost for the next 2 quarters of the season.

 

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