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Wes Welker, WR, New England Patriots (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Wes Welker, WR, New England Patriots

Player Page Link: Wes Welker Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

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[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
No proven WR that consistently stretches the field worries me a little bit, but Welker was reasonably productive last season under those circumstances and I'd guess his knee will be a little better off this year.

Recs: 100

Rec Yds: 1025

Rec TDs: 6

 
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You know what you're getting from Welker....a lot of receptions, a low YPR, pedestrian TD totals. He's a solid WR2 in PPR leagues, but his upside is pretty low. I would rather chance it with a higher upside guy like Dez Bryant or Mike Williams TB as my WR2.

100 rec, 1075yds, 6TD

 
I think that the projections for Wes Welker being based on history and the fact that he should be better in 2011 since he has completely recovered from his knee injury are still leaving out an important factor and it is not the loss of the stretch the field (Randy Moss) WR.

The following information really made a point with me regarding the target history in New England for Welker.

07 - Welker 145 targets and total TE targets 68

08 - Welker 150 targets and total TE targets 64

09 - Welker 162 targets and total TE targets 61

10 - Welker 123 targets and total TE targets 133

Welker has always been a very reliable receiver in that he would be where Brady expected him to be and he would catch the balls that Brady delivered. However, in 2010 Brady had three Welkers and the two TE Welkers both averaged more yards per catch (13.0 Gronk and 12.5 Hernandez against 9.9 for Welker) and scored 10 TDs Gronk, 6 TDs Hernandez and 7 for Welker.

I just don't think that Welker is that much better, if any, than the two young TEs and see a real possession reception by committee employed by the Patriots going forward.

The following projection line is with the receiving corps as it is now and not adding a stretch the field WR. The addition of that guy in my opinion would likely carver the pie into even smaller pieces and further reduce Welker's production.

He is still a valuable guy to have in ppr leagues, but coming up short compared to past seasons in my opinion.

Welker 16 gms 130 targets 91 catches 910 yards 10.0 ypc and 5 TDs

 
People doubted Welker last year and they paid especially in PPR. I am a Jets homer and Wes may be my favorite player. After being a year further removed from his injury, he will dominate once again. Tom loves him some Wes. Tom Brady doesn't need Moss to stretch the field, he is Tom freaking Brady.

115 for 1190 and 7 TD's Number WR 1 in PPR for sure.

 
'rzrback77 said:
I think that the projections for Wes Welker being based on history and the fact that he should be better in 2011 since he has completely recovered from his knee injury are still leaving out an important factor and it is not the loss of the stretch the field (Randy Moss) WR.The following information really made a point with me regarding the target history in New England for Welker.07 - Welker 145 targets and total TE targets 6808 - Welker 150 targets and total TE targets 6409 - Welker 162 targets and total TE targets 6110 - Welker 123 targets and total TE targets 133Welker has always been a very reliable receiver in that he would be where Brady expected him to be and he would catch the balls that Brady delivered. However, in 2010 Brady had three Welkers and the two TE Welkers both averaged more yards per catch (13.0 Gronk and 12.5 Hernandez against 9.9 for Welker) and scored 10 TDs Gronk, 6 TDs Hernandez and 7 for Welker. I just don't think that Welker is that much better, if any, than the two young TEs and see a real possession reception by committee employed by the Patriots going forward.The following projection line is with the receiving corps as it is now and not adding a stretch the field WR. The addition of that guy in my opinion would likely carver the pie into even smaller pieces and further reduce Welker's production.He is still a valuable guy to have in ppr leagues, but coming up short compared to past seasons in my opinion.Welker 16 gms 130 targets 91 catches 910 yards 10.0 ypc and 5 TDs
This is a great posting. Nice job rzr. I do think a more effective running game will help the offense hum a bit more but Welker has more competition for balls these days.87 receptions890 yards5 TDs
 
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I don't think Welker's role/targets will change much and I don't see an increase in production because of players like Woodhead, Gronk and Hernandez doing much of the same. I have no reason to believe he will be a bigger part of the offense than he allready is, and even though his injury should be 100% healed by now I don't think it will impact his fantasy production much.

82 rec - 800 y - 5 TDs

 
The days of Moss stretching the field and Welker running free underneath are over. The Pats offense now has several intermediate targets that will take away passes thrown his way. I don't see anyway he gets the 150+ targets he'll need to be a WR1. With his lack of yards and TDs he'll be a reasonable WR2 in PPR leagues but his ceiling is certainly limited.

85 rec

875 yds

6 TDs

 
I don't think Welker's role/targets will change much and I don't see an increase in production because of players like Woodhead, Gronk and Hernandez doing much of the same. I have no reason to believe he will be a bigger part of the offense than he allready is, and even though his injury should be 100% healed by now I don't think it will impact his fantasy production much.82 rec - 800 y - 5 TDs
The days of Moss stretching the field and Welker running free underneath are over. The Pats offense now has several intermediate targets that will take away passes thrown his way. I don't see anyway he gets the 150+ targets he'll need to be a WR1. With his lack of yards and TDs he'll be a reasonable WR2 in PPR leagues but his ceiling is certainly limited.85 rec875 yds6 TDs
I'm right here with these two guys based on the stats above shown by rzr. All that underneath stuff that Welker gobbled up is now going to be divided amongst three guys, and two of them are much bigger targets for Brady. The days of 100 catches for Welker are over. I think 80-85 receptions is his ceiling now. I could go as far as predicting something like 70/650/4 for Welker but given his history I'm inclined to inch that up to the two predictions I quoted but my gut tells me to temper it even further.
 
I don't know why anyone would doubt Welker at this point...the bottomline is if he's open than Brady is throwing to him...it's really that simple and to try to find reasons why this won't happen is just trying too hard...he has done nothing but produce with the Pats whether Brady was playing, Cassell was playing, Moss was dominating, Moss was MIA or he was coming back months earlier from an injury than most pedicted...until he loses it physically or in another uniform he will be Brady's main target...being a year and half removed from the injury I see a typical year for Welker...at the end of the day whether he can get in the end-zone will determine just how valuable he is fantasy-wise...that's where the TE's may effect him by either taking TDs away or actually giving him more room to operate...they're not going to hurt him in the reception department with #12 at QB...

110 receptions, 1100 yards, 5 TDs

 
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Welker started out last year pretty slow due to his knee injury but was really turning it on down the stretch, even with TEs Gronkowski and Hernandez emerging as downfield factors. I see Welker being healthy for all 16 games and returning to form a bit more. He had a 5 game stretch with 89, 58, 90, 80, and 115 yards last year. He had 8, 5, 8, 7, and 8 catches in those games as well. He may not get a lot of targets but he is one of the few receivers who you know will catch 80% of the balls thrown his way.

112 catches for 1,142 yards with 5 TD.

 
Should be solid regardless. While his receptions did not jump up in the second half, he was clearly improving from injury as his ypr went from 8.1 to 11.7. The concerns about the TEs are overblown. Hernandez dropped off in the second half and Gronk's best game (targ, rec, yds) came in week 17 when Welker didn't play. How people can project lower numbers for Welker for 16 games when he put up 86/848/7 in 15 games on a recovering blown out knee is amazing to me. Just add in his playoff game as a 16th game and you get 93/905/7.

With a non-ppr ADP of 49 (WR18) and a staff ranking of 20, he is clearly undervalued and I guy I'd be very happy to land in the late 4th/early 5th. I sure hope he is this undervalued in the subscriber contest...

100/1100/8

 
Now that Ocho is in town, how much does this help or hurt Welker? Brady has a lot of mouths to feed but Welker is healthier going into the season.

 
With the addition Ocho I dont see Welkers numbers going down much if at all.

I think Ocho hurts Hernandez the most and its still only a negligible difference. I think Welkers floor is 100/1000/6, but I think his ceiling is 125/1300/8

Gonna be another good year for New England.

 
Welker is putting even the most optimistic of us to shame. He needs less than 50 yards per game to hit 1100. Obviously it won't happen, but extrapolating 31/458/4 from 3 games to 16 yields 165/2443/21 :)

 
Welker is putting even the most optimistic of us to shame. He needs less than 50 yards per game to hit 1100. Obviously it won't happen, but extrapolating 31/458/4 from 3 games to 16 yields 165/2443/21 :)
I think my ceiling wasnt optimistic enough, still get the last laugh, owning him in every league.
 
I think my ceiling wasnt optimistic enough, still get the last laugh, owning him in every league.
True. Projections and rankings don't have to be spot on. You've just got to have the break out guys ranked high enough above the duds that you end up drafting them. Welker in the 2nd would likely be an accurate pick, but he could be had late 4th so as long as you had him ranked above the likes of Bowe and Mike Williams, you were fine. I only have him in one league, though. Usually went for Finley or Ryan Mathews in the 4th...
 
So where do we rank Welker in non-PPR WR rankings (I am assuming he's at the very top of the PPR rankings)? Would you trade him for Fitz or Calvin or Mike Wallace or Roddy White? What WR's would you put ahead of him?

I'd put Calvin ahead of him, and maybe Fitz just because I think Fitz is going to be in for a big year once the Cards put things together a bit more. But I think I'd put Welker right after those guys.

 
So where do we rank Welker in non-PPR WR rankings (I am assuming he's at the very top of the PPR rankings)? Would you trade him for Fitz or Calvin or Mike Wallace or Roddy White? What WR's would you put ahead of him?I'd put Calvin ahead of him, and maybe Fitz just because I think Fitz is going to be in for a big year once the Cards put things together a bit more. But I think I'd put Welker right after those guys.
Ive been pimping Welker all off season as a top 10 WR in all formats. Id be unlikely to make a lateral trade for another top 10 WR if I wasnt getting some sort of incentive.The only top 10s I would even consider in standard would be AJ or Megatron, none of the other top 10s teams are in what I consider a good situation for a WR.
 
Welker finished my non-PPR season as the #1 WR.

I can't see why he wouldn't finish Top 5 in 2012?

He finished as #6 overall for non-QBs.

 
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Welker finished my non-PPR season as the #1 WR. I can't see why he wouldn't finish Top 5 in 2012?
I own him in a keeper league and I will be looking to trade him before our draft next year. It is not that I think he will tank next season, but I expect I will be able to get more value for him in a trade than my projects of his performance would merit. I am viewing this as a classic sell high situation.
 
Welker finished my non-PPR season as the #1 WR. I can't see why he wouldn't finish Top 5 in 2012?
I own him in a keeper league and I will be looking to trade him before our draft next year. It is not that I think he will tank next season, but I expect I will be able to get more value for him in a trade than my projects of his performance would merit. I am viewing this as a classic sell high situation.
I couldn't have been more wrong in my preseason speculation regarding Welker. I assumed BB and Brady could and would get something out of Ocho Cinco, Deion Branch, Brandon Tate and to a lesser extent Taylor Price. I also thought that by drafting two RB's they might actually try and run the ball giving Brady fewer targets to distribute. I was wrong on all accounts. I don't know what the trade value for Welker will be; I am sure you will be able to get some nice pieces for him if he stays in NE. This season does appear to be the perfect storm for Welker. The Patriots have to try and do something about getting more production out of their #2 and #3 receivers. They have nothing in their system beyond Welker, Gronk and Hernandez. The ship seems to have sailed on developing a running game this season. So much for their 2nd and third round picks in 2011. I am sure the hope for next season is to get more out of Vereen than they did Woodhead and Faulk this season.
 
I'm surprised this thread isn't getting more love.

Welker is an interesting prospect this year. In four seasons on the Patriots, he's averaged 7.0, 6.9, 8.8, and 5.7 receptions per game all around 10-11 ypr. Last year he was coming off a knee injury that we all expected to land him on the PUP to begin the season. I think a conservative estimate for 2011 would be 6.5 rec/gm which would put him just over 100 receptions and very likely around 1100 yards, making him very valuable in ppr formats and a safe WR2 in non-ppr with low WR1 upside. Touchdown projections are always a crapshoot, but last year, with no Randy Moss, his rec/TD saw an improvement. In his four NE seasons they are 14, 37, 31, 12. It should not surprise anyone if a healthy Welker manages his first double digit TD season in 2011, although 8-9 is where the statistics project him.

105 rec x 10.5 ypr = 1100 yds 8 TD
Only three projections in this thread with more than 6 touchdowns. I have always suspected that not much thought goes into these threads. Certainly there is almost no statistical analysis save for the occasional post like above. The writing was on the wall that he was a value play. Wasn't a sexy pick, but was a lock to outperform his ADP and he had some touchdown upside. But man, where did the career high ypr come from?
 

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