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Mark Sanchez, QB, New York Jets (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Mark Sanchez, QB, New York Jets

Player Page Link: Mark Sanchez Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
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At this time of the year (May), Sanchez could be the hardest bonafide starting QB to get a read on due to the WR situation. With both Holmes and Edwards as FAs, there is a general assumption that the Jets will at least be able to retain one of the two. Edwards has gone on record saying he is willing to take a "discount", and once a CBA is agreed upon, IMO, it is likely that the Jets will try to secure Holmes first and then Edwards (I would take a guess that Edwards would think the same). Holmes on the other hand has said very little and it would not be a surprise at all if he were gone from the team just a day into official FA. With that said, it would just take two teams (one for Holmes and the other for Edwards) to offer up a sweet deal and the Jets are left with squat. I only see about a 15% chance of this happening, but worth noting.

Sanchez improved in year two, but without both WRs (previously mentioned ones), I do not see a big spike in his numbers. Add the improvement in the running game via the draft and they have one more young set of legs.

Projections:

This may be viewed as a cop out, but I see no other way to do projections in this specific case:

With Edwards and Holmes - 325 comp, 550 att 3600 yards 25 TDs 15 INTs

With just one of the two - 300 comp, 525 att 3300 yards 21 TDs 15 INTs

With neither of the two - 285 comp, 520 att 3100 yards 18 TDs 16 INTs

I do think if they fail to sing either, they will find a way to get a TO/Moss type to fill the role for a year, but I would not expect wonders from that particular WR.

 
Not a fan. Haven't seen anything to make me believe he'll one day be considered a good passer. I think he's a backup by 2013, if not earlier.

If he plays 16 games this year:

245-450 (54%), 3,000 yds, 16 TDs, 18 INTs

35 rush, 100 yds, 2 TDs

 
Not a fan. Haven't seen anything to make me believe he'll one day be considered a good passer. I think he's a backup by 2013, if not earlier.

If he plays 16 games this year:

245-450 (54%), 3,000 yds, 16 TDs, 18 INTs

35 rush, 100 yds, 2 TDs
Getting to the AFC championship game twice in 2 years hasn't shown you anything??????? Tough crowd.

I dont know if Sanchez will ever be a great FF quarterback but I like him for NFL purposes.

3500 yards 22 td's 2 rushing td's and 14 int's

 
Not a fan. Haven't seen anything to make me believe he'll one day be considered a good passer. I think he's a backup by 2013, if not earlier.

If he plays 16 games this year:

245-450 (54%), 3,000 yds, 16 TDs, 18 INTs

35 rush, 100 yds, 2 TDs
Getting to the AFC championship game twice in 2 years hasn't shown you anything??????? Tough crowd.

I dont know if Sanchez will ever be a great FF quarterback but I like him for NFL purposes.

3500 yards 22 td's 2 rushing td's and 14 int's
Didn't the defense, offensive line, coaching staff, etc., have at least a little something to do with the Jets getting to consecutive championship games? Sanchez has been serving in a Trent Dilfer/David Woodley-type capacity on a good overall team.

It's reasonable to think he'll get better. I just think he's destined to be one of the league's better backup QBs -- the type of guy an NFL team can feel confident in for a week or maybe a month but not for a full season.

 
In Sanchez' rookie year, the Jets were all about running the ball. They ran 600 times and only passed 389 times, running over 60% of their offensive plays. Sanchez was a "game manager" or "care taker" in every sense of the word. He also struggled when he did pass the ball, completing only 54.0% of his passes and averaging 6.7 yards per attempt.

In 2010, the Jets managed to level out their offense as they ran only 526 tiimes and passed 522 for very close to a 50/50 split. They added LT and Holmes to their offense and had five legitimate receiving options. But, looking closely at the stats, they were not more effective passing in 2010, they just passed more.

In 2010, Sanchez completed 54.4% of his passes, still not very good by NFL standards, especially considering that LT caught 52 passes (66.0%) out of the backfield. Sanchez had a 6.5 ypa, which was even lower than in his rookie campaign. The best improvement was an increase in TDs from 12 to 17, still low and a decrease in interceptions from 20 to 13.

In addition, the Jets may lose one or both of Edwards and Holmes and added another RB in the draft. Even without knowing which WRs will return, I think that the Jets dial down the passing attack and run a little more.

Mark Sanchez 16 gms 262 for 480 att 54.6% & 3120 yds 6.5 ypa 15 TDs 10 ints 25 for 100 yds 0 TDs

 
He improved greatly from 2009, could be a steal in 2011 especially if Holmes returns. A great QB2 in terms of Fantasy pts.

300 Comps / 3500 yards / 22 TDs / 12 Ints / 2 rushing TDs

 
What's interesting about Sanchez is that if you look at his entire season (including playoffs), it paints a slightly better picture than his regular season. Also, remember that he didn't play in week 17.

Adjusting for that and projecting the 18 games he did play over 16 and his stat line looks like: 295/530 (55.7%) 3473 (6.55/att) 20 TD/12 INT.

Assuming that he gets at least one of Holmes or Edwards back, I think we'll see some modest improvement in his efficiency in his 3rd year as he ups his completion rate to say 58%.

313/540 (58%) for 3685 (6.82/att) for 22 TD/14 INT. 100 rushing yards and 2 TDs.

 
Mark Sanchez came out of college early and he's only entering his 3rd year in the NFL. He finished 24th overall in fantasy points at QB his rookie season, he finished 19th last year and I feel comforable in saying he'll improve on that and finish inside the top 15 QB's. Sanchez has a lot of NFL experience considering the short amount of time he's actually been in the league.

3350 yards, 20 Td's with 13 Int's

130 yards rushing, 2 td's

 
Mark Sanchez is difficult to project at this point. Will have Holmes? Edwards? If his targets are Edwards, Holmes, Keller, and LT, Sanchez could become an intriguing pick. The question remains.....will the Jets offense be more centered around Sanchez, or will they still do a run-first approach with LT and Greene?

Assuming Holmes and Edwards are back,

3400 yards, 22 TD, 14 Int

125 rush yards, 2 TD

 
Not a fan. Haven't seen anything to make me believe he'll one day be considered a good passer. I think he's a backup by 2013, if not earlier.

If he plays 16 games this year:

245-450 (54%), 3,000 yds, 16 TDs, 18 INTs

35 rush, 100 yds, 2 TDs
Getting to the AFC championship game twice in 2 years hasn't shown you anything??????? Tough crowd.

I dont know if Sanchez will ever be a great FF quarterback but I like him for NFL purposes.

3500 yards 22 td's 2 rushing td's and 14 int's
Didn't the defense, offensive line, coaching staff, etc., have at least a little something to do with the Jets getting to consecutive championship games? Sanchez has been serving in a Trent Dilfer/David Woodley-type capacity on a good overall team. It's reasonable to think he'll get better. I just think he's destined to be one of the league's better backup QBs -- the type of guy an NFL team can feel confident in for a week or maybe a month but not for a full season.
If you actually went back and re-watched those playoff games, you'd see tha Sanchez played a very vital role in all those victories. He elevated his game after two mediocre regular seasons and played real well in the playoffs.Something that was already brought up in this thread needs to be considered a little more when considering his long term prospects. Sanchez only started one year in college so he's still learning the game and has shown flahes of the "it" factor.

He can make all the throws and has better than average mobility. His main problem his first two years was trying to do too much when the game started getting out of hand and making poor decisions as a result. There is no way he's an NFL backup by 2013. He just flew all of his teammates out to California, put them up in luxury condos, provided them with gourmet meals and ran offseason workouts including film study sessions and power point presentations. He's a leader of the team only two years into the league.

With that said, he's still learning and his 2011 projections make him a QB2 in fantasy circles. The team is still a defensive lead team and more run oriented than most other teams. I think Braylon Edwards comes back and they sign a veteran like Moss or Steve Smith to help. Dustin Keller is capable of picking up the slack that Holmes will leave behind.

3,600 yards passing, 22 TDs, 13 Ints; 140 yards rushing, 2 TDs

 
I will say that you do last long in the NFL if you are 4-2 in the playoffs, even though QBs probably get too much credit when their team wins or loses.

I looked at his numbers from the past two post seasons and see reason for hope that he might be at least a spot starter for FF purposes (regular season #'s)

In six post season games he is 95/147 for 1155 yards, 9 TDs and 3 Int for a total of 97.6 points in the standard FBGs scoring.

That breaks down to roughly 16/25 for 190 yards, 1.5 TD to .5 INT and 16.2 pts/game. Not horrible, but not QB1 either.

It is because he has shown to be able to produce in the playoffs that I think he can improve on his regular season numbers.

I haven't checked out his schedule or know who he will be throwing to, but I suspect his regular season numbers will improve next year

300/530 3400 20/14, plus 100 yards rushing and 2 TDs

 
I will say that you do last long in the NFL if you are 4-2 in the playoffs, even though QBs probably get too much credit when their team wins or loses.I looked at his numbers from the past two post seasons and see reason for hope that he might be at least a spot starter for FF purposes (regular season #'s)In six post season games he is 95/147 for 1155 yards, 9 TDs and 3 Int for a total of 97.6 points in the standard FBGs scoring.That breaks down to roughly 16/25 for 190 yards, 1.5 TD to .5 INT and 16.2 pts/game. Not horrible, but not QB1 either.It is because he has shown to be able to produce in the playoffs that I think he can improve on his regular season numbers.I haven't checked out his schedule or know who he will be throwing to, but I suspect his regular season numbers will improve next year300/530 3400 20/14, plus 100 yards rushing and 2 TDs
4 - 2 in the playoffs, all road games... and maybe could of went to a Superbowl in one of those 2 yrs. If they lose Holmes and BE which their not going to lose both, Edwards will return not too sure about Holmes, but the Jets are already looking into bringing in Moss or Ocho.
 
In regards to the completion percentage debate, you can't look at it for what it is without understanding whether he is put in a position to have a higher completion percentage. I have no idea what Shotty and Rex's philosophy is, but they certainly are not running a WCO in NJ. Plus, the WC offenses, and many teams have a version of it, tend to balloon completion percentages. I went back and looked at completion percentage for the 1975 season and only two QBs (Tark and Ken anderson) had a completion percentage over 60%. Sanchez would have been number 10 on the list.

I understand it is a different day in the NFL, but that is what you get when you are not running a WCO.

 
In regards to the completion percentage debate, you can't look at it for what it is without understanding whether he is put in a position to have a higher completion percentage. I have no idea what Shotty and Rex's philosophy is, but they certainly are not running a WCO in NJ. Plus, the WC offenses, and many teams have a version of it, tend to balloon completion percentages. I went back and looked at completion percentage for the 1975 season and only two QBs (Tark and Ken anderson) had a completion percentage over 60%. Sanchez would have been number 10 on the list.I understand it is a different day in the NFL, but that is what you get when you are not running a WCO.
It's got little to do with the WCO. Favre had a 65% completion percentage with the Jets in this system. Completion percentages are up today compared to 1975 because of the removal of restrictions on pass blocking and the addition of restrictions on defensive backs. Sanchez' completion percentage is brutal and there's no excuse for it. He isn't throwing a ton of deep passes, he's throwing a lot of short and intermediate routes. The bottom line is Sanchez (1) isn't that accurate and (2) doesn't read defenses well.These things can improve, but Sanchez was well below league average in yards per pass attempt and at the bottom of the league in completion percentage. Those are not good signs.
 
For projection purposes, it's worth noting that the Jets ran a ton of plays last year. They will probably run about 8% fewer plays in 2011.

 
In regards to the completion percentage debate, you can't look at it for what it is without understanding whether he is put in a position to have a higher completion percentage. I have no idea what Shotty and Rex's philosophy is, but they certainly are not running a WCO in NJ. Plus, the WC offenses, and many teams have a version of it, tend to balloon completion percentages. I went back and looked at completion percentage for the 1975 season and only two QBs (Tark and Ken anderson) had a completion percentage over 60%. Sanchez would have been number 10 on the list.I understand it is a different day in the NFL, but that is what you get when you are not running a WCO.
If he's not throwing short passes then shouldn't his ypa be higher?People need to stop creating excuses for him and accept that he just may be a poor man's Dilfer. That's not to say he's for sure stuck in that rut for the rest of his career. He is young. But barring something unforseen, there's nothing to get too excited about for 2011 and that's what this thread is about. If you draft Sanchez, get ready for a lot of 200/1/1 games.
It would bump up his yards per completion. He was 7th in YPC in 2009 and 15th last year.
 
Just not a fan.. of him on the Jets and in FFootball.. Dont think he is the Sanchise and for FF purposes the JETS are a run first and second team...

 
In regards to the completion percentage debate, you can't look at it for what it is without understanding whether he is put in a position to have a higher completion percentage. I have no idea what Shotty and Rex's philosophy is, but they certainly are not running a WCO in NJ. Plus, the WC offenses, and many teams have a version of it, tend to balloon completion percentages. I went back and looked at completion percentage for the 1975 season and only two QBs (Tark and Ken anderson) had a completion percentage over 60%. Sanchez would have been number 10 on the list.I understand it is a different day in the NFL, but that is what you get when you are not running a WCO.
It's got little to do with the WCO. Favre had a 65% completion percentage with the Jets in this system. Completion percentages are up today compared to 1975 because of the removal of restrictions on pass blocking and the addition of restrictions on defensive backs. Sanchez' completion percentage is brutal and there's no excuse for it. He isn't throwing a ton of deep passes, he's throwing a lot of short and intermediate routes. The bottom line is Sanchez (1) isn't that accurate and (2) doesn't read defenses well.These things can improve, but Sanchez was well below league average in yards per pass attempt and at the bottom of the league in completion percentage. Those are not good signs.
Of his 278 completions, 78 went to the various RBs and those averaged 7.03 yards per catch, not yards per attempt. The completion percentage AND the ypa numbers are just not good for Sanchez.
 
If Braylon and Brad Smith leave, doesn't Cotchery start again? If so, he might be a decent sleeper with fewer people to compete with targets on.

Order of useful targets

Holmes

Keller

Cotch

LT

Assuming the above scenario with free agency, I think Sanchez takes a modest step forward statistically this season.

The Jets passed 525 times and ran it 534. I think the Jets might have fewer than 534 rushing attempts this season. Sanchez may pass a bit more as gains a bit more control of the offense in year 3.

293 completetions in 520 attempts for 56.5%. 3640 yards at 7.0 ypa. 20 TD 14 INT, 30 carries 100 yards 2 TD ~ qb 16

 
I too am not a big fan of Sanchez as a QB but I think he will gradually improve this season. I actually see a lot of Eli Manning in his play, in terms of accuracy (he tends to throw high a fair amount) and gradual development as a QB in the NFL. I think it'll take a couple more seasons for him to really "break out" as a possible FF QB1.

As for the 2011 Season, I think he gets a chance to carry more of the load now that he's in his 3rd Season and should have a stronger understanding overall of the playbook, his primary reads, etc. I see him making a slight improvement on completion %, YPA, and INT%.

309/528 (58.5%) for 3,590 yards (6.8 YPA) with 19 TD (6.1% TD per Completion, which he's hit in both seasons prior) vs 12 INT (2.3% INT per Attempt)

 
Thought I would bump this thread since he is having a decent FF season. He seems to have built some chemistry with Keller/Plax and he is averaging almost 33 passes a week (playing from behind probably a factor).

One real stinker in Week 4, but he is still #12 in FBG standard scoring above such BB favorites Rivers, Ryan, Freeman and Flacco. Seems like a nice back up QB in dynasty that didn't cost as much as the Name Brands;)

 
Thought I would bump this thread since he is having a decent FF season. He seems to have built some chemistry with Keller/Plax and he is averaging almost 33 passes a week (playing from behind probably a factor). One real stinker in Week 4, but he is still #12 in FBG standard scoring above such BB favorites Rivers, Ryan, Freeman and Flacco. Seems like a nice back up QB in dynasty that didn't cost as much as the Name Brands;)
Took him as my backup to Stafford. Here's hoping it pays off this week. Not getting love from the projections. Maybe that guarantees a rock star performance.. ;)
 
Thought I would bump this thread since he is having a decent FF season. He seems to have built some chemistry with Keller/Plax and he is averaging almost 33 passes a week (playing from behind probably a factor).
Plax has had three good games, and four bad games. Keller is the only one I think has chemistry with Sanchez.
 
Sanchez plays one of the easiest schedules in the NFL for the remainder. He is a great pair with Jay Cutler if you can get both. Just thought I'd throw that out.

 

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