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Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

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Thread Topic: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

Player Page Link: Matt Forte Player Page

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Matt Forte is a good but not great NFL RB. Much of his value comes from being a really good receiver. CHI has improved their OL which should help Forte. Chester Taylor came in last year and didn't take too much of Forte's workload. Main question will be how much goalline love he gets.

225 car, 925 yds, 6 TD

55 rec, 450 yds, 2 TD

 
Never seems to get the love he deserves, at least not in my leagues (and my leagues even include Chicago guys). Even on the days when Mike Martz decides he doesn't feel like trying to run the ball, Forte will make up for it with 70 yards in catches. Best thing about Forte from a fantasy perspective: virtually no competition for his job. Chester Taylor is strictly a relief pitcher.

250 car, 1,050 yds, 7 TDs

50 rec, 475 yds, 2 TDs

 
While thinking about Forte, here is a list of pros/cons I came up with:

Pros:

Durable - started every game his career (48 and counting)

Can break the long one - each year he has had at least one run of 50+ yards

Is in an offense which caters to his skills - He is gold in PPR and actually, last year, he had the least amount of receptions for his career (I'd expect that to change in 2011

Line is constantly improving

Has had double-digit TDs in two of of his three years

Cons:

While not asked to be the workhorse anymore in a Martz offense, he did have a career low in touches in 2010

Two out of three years, he did not reach a 4.0 average on carries

Plays in what now could be called the toughest division in football, with wickedly tough Defensive lines

If Cutler and Martz continue to mesh, will his role further diminish?

Obviously, there are a good amount of positives and while I like what I see, I'm heistant to slot him as a RB1 (though close). I see him as a top-end RB2, and you would be very fortunate if you went RB/RB and walked away with an ADP or CJ and Forte at the turn.

Projections:

250 1100 5 TDs (rushing); 58 500 3 TDs (receiving)

 
While thinking about Forte, here is a list of pros/cons I came up with:Pros:Durable - started every game his career (48 and counting)Can break the long one - each year he has had at least one run of 50+ yardsIs in an offense which caters to his skills - He is gold in PPR and actually, last year, he had the least amount of receptions for his career (I'd expect that to change in 2011Line is constantly improvingHas had double-digit TDs in two of of his three yearsCons:While not asked to be the workhorse anymore in a Martz offense, he did have a career low in touches in 2010Two out of three years, he did not reach a 4.0 average on carriesPlays in what now could be called the toughest division in football, with wickedly tough Defensive linesIf Cutler and Martz continue to mesh, will his role further diminish?Obviously, there are a good amount of positives and while I like what I see, I'm heistant to slot him as a RB1 (though close). I see him as a top-end RB2, and you would be very fortunate if you went RB/RB and walked away with an ADP or CJ and Forte at the turn.Projections:250 1100 5 TDs (rushing); 58 500 3 TDs (receiving)
Very good list Andre the Giant. I would add to the Pros column that his 2011 SOS projects to be much improved over last season. The only Con I see not mentioned (and at this point is pure speculation) is competition for touches. I don't think Taylor is a threat but I just have a feeling that they will bring in another FA RB to pair with him. If that does not occur and only Taylor is his competition, disregard the concern all together.
 
Will continue to put up low end RB1 numbers(mid RB1 in PPR) yet will continue to be underrated.

270 car, 1170 yards, 7 TD's, 60 rec, 565 yards 3 TD's

 
I like Forte but some people overrated him. 240 carries 1100yrds 9TDs50rec 480yrds 2TDs
Overrated him yet you have him at 11 tds? I'll take that any day. :excited:
Also a projected career high in ypc? You may be overrating him yourself lol.Forte is good, has been durable. In some circles he's over rated, in some circles he's under rated. I guess it's a personal opinion. I fall somewhere in the middle. His speed was back and he looked great. However, inside even last year's big year there were some cons. In games 2-16 (i.e not week 1 or week 17) he had 36 receptions. Respectable, but not this ppr monster he's made out to be (fwiw I still think he's a good bet for 50 rec, and he caught a lot of passes in the playoffs, but im just sayin'). He had a problem scoring td's, and was TERRIBLE at the goal line. I don't feel like looking up stats, but I'd bet (if I'm wrong, please correct me) that he had a horrible goal line percentage (or whatever rating scale is used for that). He's also prone to clunkers, even tho most of those came in the 1st half of the season. He is a pretty solid rb2, a decent use of a 2nd round pick. I think he may get drafted into the late rb1 territory, which I wouldn't be ok with. Touchdowns can be a tad unpredictable, because you don't know if he'll rip off a bunch of long td's this year, but throughout his career he hasn't been a td monster (all tho for 2 out of 3 years he's been respectable), so he's already at a handicap there when measured up to other rb1's. His early early mockdraftcentral ADP is 20 (rb #14). That's more than fair. As long, as I mentioned, he doesn't slide into the rb1 zone, then he's a very good rb2 in ppr leagues. In standard league's, he's still a solid mid ranged rb2 because he churns out a lot of yards.Projections: 245 carries, 4.3 ypc, 1054 rush yards. 54 rec, 490 rec yards, 8 total tds.
 
I'm a big fan of Matt Forte. He catches great out of the backfield and if he does have a bad game running the ball then you can almost be guarenteed that you will get atleast a few points from him catching the ball out of the backfield.

Carries: 255

Yards: 1071

TD's: 7

Receptions: 58

Yards: 507

TD's: 4

Total Touches: 313

Total Yards: 1578

Total TD's: 11

 
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I think he's underrated.

I'd rather have him than Peyton Hillis, Steven Jackson, Blount and Moreno, the other 4 RBs going around his ADP.

1100/7

50/500/5

1600 total yards and 11-12 TDs is borderline RB1 production, and he has no competition or injury issues. This guy is as safe a back as you can get, and he's available a lot later than he should be.

You have to look at the production here, not "man i hate that guy."

For those who cry about his YPC, there's not an analyst in the world that would try and tell you that his offensive line was any good. If this guy gets in space, or to the outside he's dangerous. For all the times he runs up to a bad offensive line that can't open a hole, and gains 1 or 2 yards, that's going to hurt his YPC.

He's used in the passing game as much as anyone else on the team, he had more catches than any of the WRs. If you want a realistic way to judge Forte's value, I think you look at yards per touch on the ball, including his catches.

Over the last 3 years, 982 touches for 4731 yards = 4.8 yards per touch on the ball. I'll take that and be very happy with Forte.

 
I think he's underrated.I'd rather have him than Peyton Hillis, Steven Jackson, Blount and Moreno, the other 4 RBs going around his ADP.1100/750/500/51600 total yards and 11-12 TDs is borderline RB1 production, and he has no competition or injury issues. This guy is as safe a back as you can get, and he's available a lot later than he should be.You have to look at the production here, not "man i hate that guy."For those who cry about his YPC, there's not an analyst in the world that would try and tell you that his offensive line was any good. If this guy gets in space, or to the outside he's dangerous. For all the times he runs up to a bad offensive line that can't open a hole, and gains 1 or 2 yards, that's going to hurt his YPC.He's used in the passing game as much as anyone else on the team, he had more catches than any of the WRs. If you want a realistic way to judge Forte's value, I think you look at yards per touch on the ball, including his catches.Over the last 3 years, 982 touches for 4731 yards = 4.8 yards per touch on the ball. I'll take that and be very happy with Forte.
Obviously he's more valuable than the RBs you mentioned
 
I think he's underrated.I'd rather have him than Peyton Hillis, Steven Jackson, Blount and Moreno, the other 4 RBs going around his ADP.1100/750/500/51600 total yards and 11-12 TDs is borderline RB1 production, and he has no competition or injury issues. This guy is as safe a back as you can get, and he's available a lot later than he should be.You have to look at the production here, not "man i hate that guy."For those who cry about his YPC, there's not an analyst in the world that would try and tell you that his offensive line was any good. If this guy gets in space, or to the outside he's dangerous. For all the times he runs up to a bad offensive line that can't open a hole, and gains 1 or 2 yards, that's going to hurt his YPC.He's used in the passing game as much as anyone else on the team, he had more catches than any of the WRs. If you want a realistic way to judge Forte's value, I think you look at yards per touch on the ball, including his catches.Over the last 3 years, 982 touches for 4731 yards = 4.8 yards per touch on the ball. I'll take that and be very happy with Forte.
Obviously he's more valuable than the RBs you mentioned
Sjax and hills are going 1/2 a round to almost a full round before him.
 
'CompetitiveEdgeFootball said:
I think he's underrated.I'd rather have him than Peyton Hillis, Steven Jackson, Blount and Moreno, the other 4 RBs going around his ADP.1100/750/500/51600 total yards and 11-12 TDs is borderline RB1 production, and he has no competition or injury issues. This guy is as safe a back as you can get, and he's available a lot later than he should be.You have to look at the production here, not "man i hate that guy."For those who cry about his YPC, there's not an analyst in the world that would try and tell you that his offensive line was any good. If this guy gets in space, or to the outside he's dangerous. For all the times he runs up to a bad offensive line that can't open a hole, and gains 1 or 2 yards, that's going to hurt his YPC.He's used in the passing game as much as anyone else on the team, he had more catches than any of the WRs. If you want a realistic way to judge Forte's value, I think you look at yards per touch on the ball, including his catches.Over the last 3 years, 982 touches for 4731 yards = 4.8 yards per touch on the ball. I'll take that and be very happy with Forte.
I like the stat you gave on the yards per touch. Only problem is that last year he performed at a 5.6 yards per touch with Mike Martz system in place. I think that will drop a bit as well as his yds per carry (4.5 last year to 4.0) and yards per catch (10.7 last year to 9.5). At 250 carries and 50 catches, that will equal 1000 yards rushing and 475 recieving. I also think his touchdowns will be around the same with 8. So 250-1000-6 and 50-475-2 is around 195 fantasy points in a standard league not including fumbles. With those numbers I gave, it has him performing at a 4.9 yards per touch clip. Pretty good for a RB2.
 
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The Bears were an illusion last year; I thought they were one of the least impressive/least threatening 11-win teams in the history of the league. CompetitiveEdge is right in that you can't just look at Forte and say "I hate that guy" because of his strong efforts so far, but I do think both Forte and the Bears take a significant step back this year. The Chicago defense is getting very old, their receivers didn't show much last year, and overall I see them as a soft team more likely to hit 5 wins this year than get back to 11.

Forte was deceptively effective last year after a few real stinkers early in the season: 16 plays over 20 yards, only 5 games with fewer than 7 fantasy points, and a couple of really monster games. Despite that, I think the Bears are a team headed in the wrong direction who will need a very strong season in free agency (upgrade at WR, youth on D, and a couple more bodies for the o-line) to counteract a weak draft and a team that wasn't that good in the first place. I expect it'll place a limit on both the volume of work Forte gets a chance to see, and what he does with it. Think 2009 numbers: a decent floor because of his heavy role in the passing game, but rushing stats that disappoint. I think he'll still be the best fantasy performer on the team, but one with relatively low upside.

230 carries, 885 yards; 56 rec, 455 yards; 6 total TDs.

 
Forte surprised me with a bounce back season last year as he finished 10th in fantasy points for Rb's. I've never been a huge fan of Forte but he does seem to get the job done and in his 3 years in the NFL, he's never finished outside the top 20 for Rb's in fantasy football. I suspect he'll slip slightly from his solid 2010 season but he should make for a solid RB2 again in 2011.

980 yards rushing, 5 td's

50 receptions, 465 yards and 2 td's

 
Matt Forte is one of those guys where the whole is much greater than simply the sum of his parts. He is a guy that a lot of folks bad-mouth or disrespect, yet he continues to produce.

Mike Martz was hired by the Bears fore the 2010 season and his reputation of not using RBs created a fantasy bargain a year ago in Matt Forte. According to FBG information, Forte was drafted around RB 23 last year, even after ranking 4th and 18th in non-ppr scoring his first two seasons.

In 2010, his carries did drop to a career low, but only 21 or just over one per game from his 09 stats. He was still active in the passing game with 51 catches. All told, he had 237 rushes and 51 catches for 288 touches (18 per game) and he finished as the RB 10 in non-ppr scoring.

The Bears did not draft an RB, but did add a first round offensive lineman and I think that Forte's load will be about the same as a year ago, with a slight uptick in efficiency. I think that the Bears will have a little more offensive success in thier second year in the system. Check out his ADP prior to your drafts and he may present a value opportunity.

Matt Forte 16 gms 240 rushes 4.5 ypc 1080 yards 70 targets 55 catches 9.0 ypc 495 yds & 10 total TDs

 
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Bump him down... Barber will now still 4-5tds from him.
Barber didn't "steal" 4 to 5 td's in Dallas and he was a focal point of the offense. He scored more than 4 or 5 TD's but he never vultured more than 4. The years he had big TD years were early on and those TD's were his and his alone.I think Barber will be an after thought when healthy, and Barber has shown on many occasions that he can't stay healthy.
 
I think if you are in a PPR and can get one of the top backs (AP, Foster, CJ, Charles) and then grab Forte in the second, that could be deadly and win a league for you.

 
I finally got around to downloading the Dominator and with my PPR scoring system he's projected at the 7th overall pick :mellow: I like him, and expected to have be a bit underrated, but I guess not at 7th overall. With projections of 1500 total yards and 10ish total TD's, that's a steep price to pay for most consider a RB2.

1050, 7TD on the ground

450, 3TD in the air

 
Anyone bumping Forte down due to the contract stalemate? Doesn't seem to be close to an end.

Any chance the Bears hold their ground and just roll with Chester Taylor and Marion Barber?

 
Anyone bumping Forte down due to the contract stalemate? Doesn't seem to be close to an end.Any chance the Bears hold their ground and just roll with Chester Taylor and Marion Barber?
Forte isn't holding out, so there is no 'rolling with taylor and barber'. Forte is in there regardless. The risk is him not being somewhere else in the future.
 
Will continue to put up low end RB1 numbers(mid RB1 in PPR) yet will continue to be underrated. 270 car, 1170 yards, 7 TD's, 60 rec, 565 yards 3 TD's
Wow, that will likely make him a top 8 back. If that works out a player like him can win a league for you.
He was #10 last year (depending on exact scoring system). Is moving up 2 slots really unreasonable? Sure, I'm a homer, but I think he is a great value in the early rounds. Low rb1 stats for a mid rb2 price.
 
Will continue to put up low end RB1 numbers(mid RB1 in PPR) yet will continue to be underrated. 270 car, 1170 yards, 7 TD's, 60 rec, 565 yards 3 TD's
Wow, that will likely make him a top 8 back. If that works out a player like him can win a league for you.
He was #10 last year (depending on exact scoring system). Is moving up 2 slots really unreasonable? Sure, I'm a homer, but I think he is a great value in the early rounds. Low rb1 stats for a mid rb2 price.
I'm worried about Forte's production this year honestly. I think Marion will be a factor, is healed from previous injuries, looks explosive, is a GL back and can catch the rock himself. I think he eats away at Forte's value this year.
 
Will continue to put up low end RB1 numbers(mid RB1 in PPR) yet will continue to be underrated. 270 car, 1170 yards, 7 TD's, 60 rec, 565 yards 3 TD's
Wow, that will likely make him a top 8 back. If that works out a player like him can win a league for you.
He was #10 last year (depending on exact scoring system). Is moving up 2 slots really unreasonable? Sure, I'm a homer, but I think he is a great value in the early rounds. Low rb1 stats for a mid rb2 price.
I'm worried about Forte's production this year honestly. I think Marion will be a factor, is healed from previous injuries, looks explosive, is a GL back and can catch the rock himself. I think he eats away at Forte's value this year.
Maybe I am being optimistic, but Martz seems to favour using one RB in his offensive systems and Forte has proven he is more than capable of carrying big loads. Barber is a physical runner, but is overrated in short yardage at this stage. Even in yesterday's preseason game he failed to get into the end zone on 3rd and 1 and 4th and 1. Chicago's offensive line is not great in short yardage whether Forte or Barber gets those looks.Forte should still accumulate 290 touches at a minimum with a good bet of getting closer to 330 total touches.
 
Will continue to put up low end RB1 numbers(mid RB1 in PPR) yet will continue to be underrated. 270 car, 1170 yards, 7 TD's, 60 rec, 565 yards 3 TD's
Wow, that will likely make him a top 8 back. If that works out a player like him can win a league for you.
He was #10 last year (depending on exact scoring system). Is moving up 2 slots really unreasonable? Sure, I'm a homer, but I think he is a great value in the early rounds. Low rb1 stats for a mid rb2 price.
I'm worried about Forte's production this year honestly. I think Marion will be a factor, is healed from previous injuries, looks explosive, is a GL back and can catch the rock himself. I think he eats away at Forte's value this year.
Maybe I am being optimistic, but Martz seems to favour using one RB in his offensive systems and Forte has proven he is more than capable of carrying big loads. Barber is a physical runner, but is overrated in short yardage at this stage. Even in yesterday's preseason game he failed to get into the end zone on 3rd and 1 and 4th and 1. Chicago's offensive line is not great in short yardage whether Forte or Barber gets those looks.Forte should still accumulate 290 touches at a minimum with a good bet of getting closer to 330 total touches.
Additionally, Forte had 2/3 of the team's carries (after taking out Cutler's as they were mainly not designed runs) last year. Chester Taylor inepted his way to 112 carries. So, basically the Bears were already committed to sharing the load its not something that is now going to begin this year. This is pretty much a repeat of 2009 when Taylor was signed and a group of people who doubt Forte believed that Taylor was going to eat into his carries and potentially steal the starting job. A new old back is in town, and its the same argument all over again. Forte's role won't be reduced.
 
Barber couldn't hold Forte's jock. Anyone who is worried about Barber cutting into Forte's production, just stop. Also, I have Forte as my #4 ranked RB.

 
5-6-7 are in a dead heat for me if CJ signs, he's my #5. For now I'm here:

1 Adrian Peterson

2 Arian Foster

3 Ray Rice

4 Matt Forte

5 LeSean McCoy

6 Jamaal Charles

7 Chris Johnson

 
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'BigGayDan said:
Barber couldn't hold Forte's jock. Anyone who is worried about Barber cutting into Forte's production, just stop. Also, I have Forte as my #4 ranked RB.
Sorry, BigGayDan, Barber and the weakness of that O-line are the big reasons why Forte is barely in my top 12 RB's.
 
'BigGayDan said:
Barber couldn't hold Forte's jock. Anyone who is worried about Barber cutting into Forte's production, just stop. Also, I have Forte as my #4 ranked RB.
Sorry, BigGayDan, Barber and the weakness of that O-line are the big reasons why Forte is barely in my top 12 RB's.
That's ok. The line got better as the season progressed last season and will continue to get better with the rook Carimi and Tice's coaching. I thought Forte finished strong last year and I look for him to continue that streak in 2011.
 
For what's it's worth he was the 5th best RB in our league last year.

1. Foster 461.96

2. Peterson 336.10

3. Charles 331.22

4. McFadden 324.68

5. Forte 322.48

Although inconsistent fantasy-wise since he had some really big games and some really bad games, he still pounded out top back points. His fantasy inconsistencies matched that of Chris Johnson a year ago.

 
A bit of news relevant to Matt Forte: The Bears decided to keep Will Ta'ufo'ou, who is primarily a blocking fullback, over an H-back or extra TE. Martz doesn't usually use a fullback, so it will be interesting to see what he does with Ta'ufo'ou.

But if he does wind up blocking, upgrade Forte.

My favorite is at 4:50 where he puts one guy on the ground, keeps going and takes another guy out of the play.

Warning: After watching this reel you will be overcome with an uncontrollable urge to go back and watch Jahvid Best highlights.

 
Bears GM Jerry Angelo announced Monday night that the team has shut down contract extension talks with Matt Forte.

Forte will play out his contract year. It's a risky proposition for the 25-year-old back, but he was looking for more than the $15 million guarantee offered. It's a win-win situation for the Bears. They don't have to commit major money to an injury-prone position right now, and can still use the same measuring stick (probably DeAngelo Williams' contract) after the season. Forte's fantasy owners should also be pleased; Motivation won't be a problem.

 
Marion Barber - RB - Bears

The Chicago Sun Times considers Marion Barber (calf) unlikely to play in Week 1 against the Falcons.

Matt Forte is now the favorite for goal-line and all passing-down work. "We're running out of time a little bit for Marion," coach Lovie Smith said. "But he's feeling a little better. So hopefully we'll be able to get him on the field before long." Look for Forte to exceed 20 touches against Atlanta. He's a top-12 fantasy back play.

Everything is coming together nicely for Forte to repeat or come close to his 2008 numbers.

 
A bit of news relevant to Matt Forte: The Bears decided to keep Will Ta'ufo'ou, who is primarily a blocking fullback, over an H-back or extra TE. Martz doesn't usually use a fullback, so it will be interesting to see what he does with Ta'ufo'ou.
Unfortunately, they turned around and cut him:http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/chi-bears-sign-fullback-clutts-to-practice-squad-20110907,0,4739755.storyI don't know anything about Clutts.
 

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