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Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

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Thread Topic: Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys

Player Page Link: Jason Witten Player Page

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When I think of Jason Witten, I think of a solid football player. He's not only been an elite fantasy tight end in his career, but he's been a great blocker and team leader. Last year he finished as the No. 1 fantasy TE in the NFL, but we all know it was by default as Gates was having a monster year. Another interesting note was that Witten had a career high in TD's last year, 9 Td's. However, that's hard to read because for much of the season, Tony Romo was out so counting on that kind of production again is not likely.

Early drafts have Witten going top 3 at TE, usually top 2 and I don't think he'll live up to that. I think the Cowboys will try and run more often this season with their new head coach and many of those short Td's Witten caught will be rushing TD's. In my opinion, he'll have a solid football season for the Cowboys but for fantasy owners drafting him as TE2 and TE3, they will be frustrated.

85 receptions 980 yards and 4 td's

 
Garrett loves getting Witten involved. His numbers have been very consistant, with Garrett and Romo. That won't change.

90/1000/6

 
I'm down on Witten this year due to increased competition for targets and what I expect to be an improved Dalas Defense under new HC Garret. Witten is going way too early in drafts.

80 receptions

880 yards

5 TDs

Do yourself a favor pass on Witten this year and draft Kellen Winslow several rounds later to get the exact same production, if not better.

 
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I think the real questions are:

1)How quickly if at all does Tyron Smith turn into a starting quality RT?

2)Does Doug Free continue his above average play at LT?

If these guys are able to consistently win match-ups 1:1 then Witten will release into the pattern more frequently than he did early on last season. If this is the case, I'd expect his targets/yards to align very closely with last season despite the return of Dez.

Additionally, I have to wonder if Witten's performance late in the season doesn't cause Garrett to rethink how red-zone priorities get distributed. Witten was very effective in that area in the second half of 2010 and I can't see the wisdom in simply going away from something that worked so well.

I think that Witten's showing in the second half springboards him into increased 1st and 2nd down looks and a higher priority read in the red zone. With Dez factored back into the equation, I'd guess he ends up with what has been an about average season for him 3 of the last 4 years with a slight bump to his TD's.

95ish catches, 1000ish yards, 7 TDs

 
Had a huge year last year due to Kitna favoring him. With Romo back, and the emergence of Dez Bryant, I see a good but not great year from Witten. Will likely be overvalued in drafts.

80 rec, 900 yds, 5 TD

 
'sihaokills said:
850 yards 6 TDs
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close to my feelings... Romo seems to rather throw those mid to deep routes to Austin and Dez; Witten will never be an after thought but he won't be a focal point like he was last yr when Kitna was QBing.70 Recs / 800 yds / 5 TDsBest off-season to move him IMO
 
Jason Witten has been a very prodcitve cog in the Dallas Cowboy offensive machine for seven straight years and he has played for them his entire career, which spans eight years. He was drafted in the third round before the 2003 season. He just turned 29 years old.

His stats over his career:

03 - 15 gms 49 targets 35 catches 71.4% 347 yards 9.9 ypc and 1 TD

04 - 16 gms 120 targets 87 catches 72.5% 980 yards 11.3 ypc and 6 TDs

05 - 16 gms 89 targets 66 catches 74.2% 757 yards 11.5 ypc and 6 TDs

06 - 16 gms 93 targets 64 catches 68.8% 754 yards 11.8 ypc and 1 TD

07 - 16 gms 141 targets 96 catches 68.1% 1145 yards 11.9 ypc and 7 TDs

08 - 16 gms 121 targets 81 catches 66.9% 952 yards 11.8 ypc and 4 TDs

09 - 16 gms 124 targets 94 catches 75.8% 1030 yards 11.0 ypc and 2 TDs

10 - 16 gms 128 targets 94 catches 73.4% 1002 yards 10.7 ypc and 9 TDs

The consistency, particularly in the most recent four years is undeniable. In this four years, Witten ranked 1st, 2nd, 8th, and 1st, and that is in non-ppr leagues. Hard not to focus in on those numbers and be confident with an early round pick.

He probably will not meet his stats from a year ago as he had the most targets for the Cowboys, but will remain a factor in the game plans and should see similar opportunity as Dez Bryant and Miles Austin. If he slips to the third or fourth drafted TE in your league, grab him with confidence.

Jason Witten 16 gms 120 targets 7.5 per gm 84 catches 70.0% 11.0 ypc 924 yds 6 TDs

edited to add projection

 
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'LHUCKS said:
I'm down on Witten this year due to increased competition for targets and what I expect to be an improved Dalas Defense under new HC Garret. Witten is going way too early in drafts. 80 receptions880 yards5 TDsDo yourself a favor pass on Witten this year and draft Kellen Winslow several rounds later to get the exact same production, if not better.
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Those numbers you're projecting (which are fine ultimately) represent a significant regression for Witten, and a marked improvement for Winslow. Again, I'm not suggesting you'll be proven wrong, but you came across as though Winslow is consistently on par with Witten when, in fact, he's not. Witten has been the 1st or 2nd best fantasy TE in three of the last four seasons yet ROUTINELY goes behind the likes of Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates and the athletic flavor of the week (Jermichael Finley and Vernon Davis being recent examples).
 
'Jason Wood said:
'LHUCKS said:
I'm down on Witten this year due to increased competition for targets and what I expect to be an improved Dalas Defense under new HC Garret. Witten is going way too early in drafts. 80 receptions880 yards5 TDsDo yourself a favor pass on Witten this year and draft Kellen Winslow several rounds later to get the exact same production, if not better.
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Those numbers you're projecting (which are fine ultimately) represent a significant regression for Witten, and a marked improvement for Winslow. Again, I'm not suggesting you'll be proven wrong, but you came across as though Winslow is consistently on par with Witten when, in fact, he's not. Witten has been the 1st or 2nd best fantasy TE in three of the last four seasons yet ROUTINELY goes behind the likes of Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates and the athletic flavor of the week (Jermichael Finley and Vernon Davis being recent examples).
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:goodposting: When his targets and production have shown no sign of fading away, I do not see how you can prject him for a down season. I see another 90+ catch season with over 1000 yards and 8 scores. Dont forget this guy gets a few points from 2 point conversions too. He is a major Redzone option.I have Witten and Winslow on survivor teams, I have to say, I feel a lot better about my chances with Witten before Winslow. Witten will prove to be a stud in the 2 ppr for TE format, yet again, IMHO.
 
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PEOPLE:

If you watched the games, Witten getting more looks had nothing to do with Romo/Kitna. The Dallas offensive line got healthy and allowed Garrett to use Witten the way he wanted to - the way he has been used for 4 years.

There is zero logic in using a 5 game sample over 3+ years of Witten being Romo's favorite target.

ALSO:

Witten's numbers went up when Bryant started getting more involved in the offense. In understanding Garrett's offense, you will understand that Witten is not going to be bumped down the read list. So unless Garrett drastically changes his play calling, it is Austin who could suffer if Bryant is a stud (still a question) - not Witten. Witten has the most unique skill set out of the 3, as far as what they offer, even exclusively in the passing game. He is a major weapon who is harder to take out of games than either of the two WRs - he is a bigger mismatch and easier to scheme open.

He could have a down year, but the generic "Kitna favored him and Bryant will steal targets" answer is flawed.

 
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'Jason Wood said:
'LHUCKS said:
I'm down on Witten this year due to increased competition for targets and what I expect to be an improved Dalas Defense under new HC Garret. Witten is going way too early in drafts. 80 receptions880 yards5 TDsDo yourself a favor pass on Witten this year and draft Kellen Winslow several rounds later to get the exact same production, if not better.
Click to expand...
Those numbers you're projecting (which are fine ultimately) represent a significant regression for Witten, and a marked improvement for Winslow. Again, I'm not suggesting you'll be proven wrong, but you came across as though Winslow is consistently on par with Witten when, in fact, he's not. Witten has been the 1st or 2nd best fantasy TE in three of the last four seasons yet ROUTINELY goes behind the likes of Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates and the athletic flavor of the week (Jermichael Finley and Vernon Davis being recent examples).
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A) You are correct, I'm projecting a down year for Witten (as noted above) and I'm projecting an up year for Winslow.B) I did not mean to imply that Winslow was "consistently on par" with Witten...we all know Witten's impressive recent track record.This is how you win fantasy championships, you avoide guys that could be headed into a down year(Witten) and you nab value like Winslow, much later in the draft. That is outdrafting your competition 101.I will elaborate more on Winslow when you open up the spotlight thread. For now, let's just say I disagree with the ADP discrepancy between Winslow and Witten.
 
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'MrTwo94 said:
'Concept Coop said:
PEOPLE:

If you watched the games, Witten getting more looks had nothing to do with Romo/Kitna. The Dallas offensive line got healthy and allowed Garrett to use Witten the way he wanted to - the way he has been used for 4 years.

There is zero logic in using a 5 game sample over 3+ years of Witten being Romo's favorite target.

ALSO:

Witten's numbers went up when Bryant started getting more involved in the offense. In understanding Garrett's offense, you will understand that Witten is not going to be bumped down the read list. So unless Garrett drastically changes his play calling, it is Austin who could suffer if Bryant is a stud (still a question) - not Witten. Witten has the most unique skill set out of the 3, as far as what they offer, even exclusively in the passing game. He is a major weapon who is harder to take out of games than either of the two WRs - he is a bigger mismatch and easier to scheme open.

He could have a down year, but the generic "Kitna favored him and Bryant will steal targets" answer is flawed.
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PERSON:Perhaps Garrett had to adjust the offense to fit Kitna's style which led to more focus on the TE. Otherwise, why would Miles Austin have dropped off so much? Expect Romo and Austin to resume where they left off. Romo may have had to lean on Witten in the past, but gone are the days of Witten being the only real threat on that offense. With Austin, Bryant, and Bennett they won't have to rely on Witten so heavily. So Witten's decreased fantasy value is not a product of his talent decreasing, just the result of the offense gaining (and using) more weapons. Dallas has been trying to improve their aerial weapons for a while now (see the Roy Williams trade). They found one two years ago and another one will be emergine this year. You can't just add up the last 3 years and divide by 3 and say that is what to expect this year.
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exactly, are we projecting here or are we regurgitating stats from recent history??

 
I know Giants LB Boley can't shut down Witten, neither can safety Grant. My understanding is the Eagles need help at LB too and the Skins don't scare anyone. That's 6 games Witten should do really well, and will probably lead the team in receiving for the Giants and Eagles games.

85/1000/6

 
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'MrTwo94 said:
PERSON:

Perhaps Garrett had to adjust the offense to fit Kitna's style which led to more focus on the TE. Otherwise, why would Miles Austin have dropped off so much? Expect Romo and Austin to resume where they left off. Romo may have had to lean on Witten in the past, but gone are the days of Witten being the only real threat on that offense. With Austin, Bryant, and Bennett they won't have to rely on Witten so heavily. So Witten's decreased fantasy value is not a product of his talent decreasing, just the result of the offense gaining (and using) more weapons. Dallas has been trying to improve their aerial weapons for a while now (see the Roy Williams trade). They found one two years ago and another one will be emergine this year. You can't just add up the last 3 years and divide by 3 and say that is what to expect this year.
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They have always had a WR as good as Austin and Bennett has had years to produce. He hasn't. The only new variable is Dez Bryant. Dez Bryant is a WR. So, unless Garrett drastically changes his play calling, Bryant will not be replacing Witten on the read list. If you are worried about Bryant, you should start warning Austin owners - not Witten owners.

And instead of using the word perhaps, watch the games and tell me if Jason altered the offense, how, and why.

 
'Concept Coop said:
'LHUCKS said:
exactly, are we projecting here or are we regurgitating stats from recent history??
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:rolleyes: So projections must produce an outlier to be valid?
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no, but they should take into acccount all factors and should include a bit more than basic analysis of last year's stats. Qualitative analysis is what makes a great ff prognosticator...any monkey can perform the substantive portion of the analysis.
 
'fightingillini said:
Had a huge year last year due to Kitna favoring him. With Romo back, and the emergence of Dez Bryant, I see a good but not great year from Witten. Will likely be overvalued in drafts.80 rec, 900 yds, 5 TD
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Witten also had a huge year in 2007,when Romo was at the helm. 96-1145-7.94-1030-2 in 2009.the emergence of Dez Bryant will only make things better or at least keep them static for Witten.92-1000-7..
 
'LHUCKS said:
'Concept Coop said:
'LHUCKS said:
exactly, are we projecting here or are we regurgitating stats from recent history??
Click to expand...
:rolleyes: So projections must produce an outlier to be valid?
Click to expand...
no, but they should take into acccount all factors and should include a bit more than basic analysis of last year's stats. Qualitative analysis is what makes a great ff prognosticator...any monkey can perform the substantive portion of the analysis.
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Funny you say the bolded, as your analysis is off of "You Think"I'm sorry, just sayin "You Think" is far from an argument or a legit reason in this thread.

You can "think" what you want, as its your right, but it dont make it true. Also, you have no basis or real argument to assume Witten will have a down year.

I just dont see what you guys are seeing to say Witten will have a down year. His targets rise, and catches over 90 for 3 years, no sign of him declining, none what so ever. And if he does decline in production 80+ catches is still elite from a TE in my eyes.

With the reasons you state with a rookie runner and a "better" defense causing his decline, Kinda sounds like....

"Drew Brees will have a down year because they drafted a runner and got a better defense, so they dont need Brees anymore or as much...his stats should decrease"

lol, here how dumb that sounds? yeah, my thoughts exactly.

Also, I think ADP will have a down year, they got a rookie QB, he is useless. Also I think Brady will have a down year, they drafted a runner and some defense, they dont need to pass anymore.

IMHO, you need a better argument then "YOU THINK", or else its just an uneducated opinion.

If "YOU THINK" Witten will lose targets because of a rookie RB and a few rookie defensive pieces, your mistaken. There is much more to fantasy football insight, rankings, and projections, then "YOU THINK".

I'm drooling for some of that qualitative proof you speak of LHucks, provide something other than "You Think".

(Moved form SSL4 discussion forum to here)

 
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'MrTwo94 said:
'Concept Coop said:
They have always had a WR as good as Austin and Bennett has had years to produce. He hasn't.

The only new variable is Dez Bryant. Dez Bryant is a WR. So, unless Garrett drastically changes his play calling, Bryant will not be replacing Witten on the read list. If you are worried about Bryant, you should start warning Austin owners - not Witten owners.

And instead of using the word perhaps, watch the games and tell me if Jason altered the offense, how, and why.
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Who was that? Terry Glenn? Joey Galloway?Bennett has taken time, but he did increase his share of the targets last year. That can't be denied. Do you expect the TE targets to stay at last year's high or to go back to the norm of Garrett's previous 3 years as OC?
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Terrell Owens, anybody?
 
'Football Critic said:
I just dont see what you guys are seeing to say Witten will have a down year. His targets rise, and catches over 90 for 3 years, no sign of him declining, none what so ever. And if he does decline in production 80+ catches is still elite from a TE in my eyes.
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First thing, his targets have stayed the same in the past 3 years....about 125. I think he gets about 115-120 with Bryant emerging.Nobody is saying that Witten won't have a solid year. No one is saying that Witten won't be a top 6-7 TE. IMO he won't have the year that he had last year, we're saying that he will have a down year compared to last year.

Why do I think that? Dez Bryant. The guy is a stud in the making. If you're the Cowboys, don't you want to get the ball to your playmakers? That's Bryant, Miles Austin and Felix Jones, not Jason Witten. Witten will still be excellent in 3rd and short situations when you need a key catch and will catch his share of seam routes, but if Bryant has the big year that I think he's going to have, it will likely be at the expense of Witten.

Second, Witten had a career year in TDs. He has only averaged 5 TDs a year prior to that. He's not a big threat in the redzone.

Also, with Romo coming off of injury, if the DAL OL doesn't do a good job of pass protecting, you may see Witten block more. This is a minor issue, but something to keep in mind.

 
'Tanner9919 said:
'fightingillini said:
Had a huge year last year due to Kitna favoring him. With Romo back, and the emergence of Dez Bryant, I see a good but not great year from Witten. Will likely be overvalued in drafts.80 rec, 900 yds, 5 TD
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Witten also had a huge year in 2007,when Romo was at the helm. 96-1145-7.94-1030-2 in 2009.the emergence of Dez Bryant will only make things better or at least keep them static for Witten.92-1000-7..
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Note that DAL now has 2 studs at WR that they need to feed, as well as finding ways to the get the ball to Felix Jones in space. Witten in the past used to be at worst the 2nd option to TO. Now he's the 3rd option IMO.
 
'fightingillini said:
'Football Critic said:
I just dont see what you guys are seeing to say Witten will have a down year. His targets rise, and catches over 90 for 3 years, no sign of him declining, none what so ever. And if he does decline in production 80+ catches is still elite from a TE in my eyes.
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First thing, his targets have stayed the same in the past 3 years....about 125. I think he gets about 115-120 with Bryant emerging.Nobody is saying that Witten won't have a solid year. No one is saying that Witten won't be a top 6-7 TE. IMO he won't have the year that he had last year, we're saying that he will have a down year compared to last year.

Why do I think that? Dez Bryant. The guy is a stud in the making. If you're the Cowboys, don't you want to get the ball to your playmakers? That's Bryant, Miles Austin and Felix Jones, not Jason Witten. Witten will still be excellent in 3rd and short situations when you need a key catch and will catch his share of seam routes, but if Bryant has the big year that I think he's going to have, it will likely be at the expense of Witten.

Second, Witten had a career year in TDs. He has only averaged 5 TDs a year prior to that. He's not a big threat in the redzone.

Also, with Romo coming off of injury, if the DAL OL doesn't do a good job of pass protecting, you may see Witten block more. This is a minor issue, but something to keep in mind.
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:goodposting:
 
'fightingillini said:
First thing, his targets have stayed the same in the past 3 years....about 125. I think he gets about 115-120 with Bryant emerging.

Nobody is saying that Witten won't have a solid year. No one is saying that Witten won't be a top 6-7 TE. IMO he won't have the year that he had last year, we're saying that he will have a down year compared to last year.

Why do I think that? Dez Bryant. The guy is a stud in the making. If you're the Cowboys, don't you want to get the ball to your playmakers? That's Bryant, Miles Austin and Felix Jones, not Jason Witten. Witten will still be excellent in 3rd and short situations when you need a key catch and will catch his share of seam routes, but if Bryant has the big year that I think he's going to have, it will likely be at the expense of Witten.

Second, Witten had a career year in TDs. He has only averaged 5 TDs a year prior to that. He's not a big threat in the redzone.

Also, with Romo coming off of injury, if the DAL OL doesn't do a good job of pass protecting, you may see Witten block more. This is a minor issue, but something to keep in mind.
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Witten is a TE, not a WR. What does Bryant have to do with Witten? Coaches have systems, habits, and plays that they run. Unless you think Garrett changes is system drastically, he uses Witten a lot. It doesn't matter what names the players have on their jersey or how sure you are that Bryant is a stud. If Bryant is a stud, start warning Austin owners. Or, do you think they stop running screens as well, because they have two WRs to feed? Why not lower Felix's value too? Only so many targets right? Jason Witten is every bit the play maker that the other guys are. If fact, he is the most unique play maker on the team. Nobody on the roster can replicate what Witten does. He is the biggest mismatch for opposing defenses as well, and that includes Dez Bryant, the future HOFer.

Dallas' OL got better last year when healthy, and they used their resources to improve it. That does nothing to suggest Witten will be used to help more.

 
'fightingillini said:
Note that DAL now has 2 studs at WR that they need to feed, as well as finding ways to the get the ball to Felix Jones in space. Witten in the past used to be at worst the 2nd option to TO. Now he's the 3rd option IMO.
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That is not how it works. Using Witten a lot will only help Dez and Miles get deep. Dez and Miles being deep threats only helps Witten get space underneath. The coaches have plays, schemes, systems, and game plans. I highly doubt Garrett makes major changes to something that has been so successful.On a side note: With Collie getting healthy, what does that do to Dwight Clark? He is now the #3 option. Big drop? I am surprised Tamme put up numbers - he was clearly the 4th or 5th most talented pass-catcher in routes. Why did they even have him on the field? Sorry for the sarcasm. Easiest way to make my point. When Clark went down, the Colts didn't change their system or play calling. When Collie stepped up, same thing
 
Has there every been a team in history that had 2 1k WRs and a 1k TE? I know it never happened with Clark, Wayne, Harrison. Never happened with Shannon Sharpe, Rod Smith & McCaffery (though they did have a season where both WRs had 1k and Sharpe had 10 TDs with 700+ yds I believe). I can't think of one instance of it ever occurring.

Odds that all three of Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten meet expectations seems incredibly slim.

 
'foxco said:
Has there every been a team in history that had 2 1k WRs and a 1k TE? I know it never happened with Clark, Wayne, Harrison. Never happened with Shannon Sharpe, Rod Smith & McCaffery (though they did have a season where both WRs had 1k and Sharpe had 10 TDs with 700+ yds I believe). I can't think of one instance of it ever occurring. Odds that all three of Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten meet expectations seems incredibly slim.
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very rare to have two WRs and a TE all have big years.Given Bryant is the most talented, it's either Witten or Austin that will take the hit, or both IMHO.
 
'LHUCKS said:
very rare to have two WRs and a TE all have big years.Given Bryant is the most talented, it's either Witten or Austin that will take the hit, or both IMHO.
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Austin was the best WR in the NFL over the first 4 weeks and before Romo went down. He had a 16 game stretch that was on par with anything AJ or Fitz has ever done. It is far from a given that Bryant is more talented wideout.
 
'Concept Coop said:
'LHUCKS said:
very rare to have two WRs and a TE all have big years.Given Bryant is the most talented, it's either Witten or Austin that will take the hit, or both IMHO.
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Austin was the best WR in the NFL over the first 4 weeks and before Romo went down. He had a 16 game stretch that was on par with anything AJ or Fitz has ever done. It is far from a given that Bryant is more talented wideout.
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we'll agree to disagree
 
'Concept Coop said:
'fightingillini said:
Note that DAL now has 2 studs at WR that they need to feed, as well as finding ways to the get the ball to Felix Jones in space. Witten in the past used to be at worst the 2nd option to TO. Now he's the 3rd option IMO.
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That is not how it works. Using Witten a lot will only help Dez and Miles get deep. Dez and Miles being deep threats only helps Witten get space underneath. The coaches have plays, schemes, systems, and game plans. I highly doubt Garrett makes major changes to something that has been so successful.On a side note: With Collie getting healthy, what does that do to Dwight Clark? He is now the #3 option. Big drop? I am surprised Tamme put up numbers - he was clearly the 4th or 5th most talented pass-catcher in routes. Why did they even have him on the field? Sorry for the sarcasm. Easiest way to make my point. When Clark went down, the Colts didn't change their system or play calling. When Collie stepped up, same thing
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Don't sweat over the sarcasm.....I have thick skin.The Colts had a very good replacement for Clark in Tamme. That doesn't happen often. Many times, a key player goes down and the gameplan has to change. The main point is.....I think Romo is going to throw for 4500 yards and throw 32-36 TDs. I figure that will be close to the consensus, if not a little higher. So I am bullish on the DAL offense. The question is how do you think it's going to be distributed. If you think Witten is going to get 20% of the pie (1000-1100 yards), then one of Austin or Bryant is going to bust. Period. You have to account 1000 yards to the WR3, WR4, and TE2, and about 600 yards to the backs. So say 1600 of Romo's 4500 yards is already tied up, leaving 2900 to be distributed between Witten, Bryant, and Austin. So if you think that Witten is going for 1000-1100 yards, then one of Austin or Bryant is going to bust, since both are being drafted in the top 20 WRs....you expect a top 20 WR to go for at least 1000 yards. I personally disagree. I see Witten at 900 yards, Bryant at 1100, Austin at 1200 and small decreases at the other positions. Just because Garrett has done something in the past doesn't neccessarily mean it's going to continue to happen.....you gameplan with the personnel that you have....and when a special talent in Bryant as an option, you take advantage of it.BTW, you talking like I think Witten is going to be a big bust or that he won't be utilized at all......not true. I have him for 80 receptions. I also think that if Bryant far exceed expectations, it's likely at the expense of Witten, unless Romo has a career year and approaches 5000 yards.We disagree with how the pie will be distributed.....no big deal.
 
I think they will want Romo to get the ball out fast to help keep him healthy. I think he'll check if Dez or Austin have beaten their guy, if they haven't then he'll check down to Witten, there won't be much need to check down to a Rb since Witten is such a mismatch against most DBs and LBs. They can use the RB to block rather than keeping Witten in.

 
Isn't it also possible that Witten, Dez, and Austin all get theirs at the expense of WR3, WR4, TE2 and the RBs? I mean, at least 1 of those 3 will be open basically every play.

 
'IHEARTFF said:
Isn't it also possible that Witten, Dez, and Austin all get theirs at the expense of WR3, WR4, TE2 and the RBs? I mean, at least 1 of those 3 will be open basically every play.
Click to expand...
It's possible, but how many times have there been 2 1,000 yd WRs and a 1,000 yd TE on the same team in the same season? I would bet the answer is zero (though I haven't looked up every year). So sure, it's possible, but I don't think it's a realistic expectation. It's like expecting a RB to rush for 2500 yds in a season. It's possible, but highly, highly unlikely. IMO the odds are vastly in favor of one or more of the big three in Dallas disappointing. There's just very little chance of all of these guys meeting such lofty expectations (both Dez and Miles top 10, Witten top 5).
 
Didn't the Colts have 3 1k yard receivers a few years ago with Harrison, Wayne, and Stokley? Obv Manning > Romo, but I think the Dallas trio is as talented as that trio. Also, I think the primary reason you don't see it is because most teams only have 1 or 2 good receivers. Having 3 great players out there is very rare.

 
'IHEARTFF said:
Isn't it also possible that Witten, Dez, and Austin all get theirs at the expense of WR3, WR4, TE2 and the RBs? I mean, at least 1 of those 3 will be open basically every play.
Click to expand...
You've got to keep the secondary players happy too. Also, you need to use secondary players to keep defenses honest...they'll start cheating if they see Romo only targeting three players.
 
'LHUCKS said:
'IHEARTFF said:
Isn't it also possible that Witten, Dez, and Austin all get theirs at the expense of WR3, WR4, TE2 and the RBs? I mean, at least 1 of those 3 will be open basically every play.
Click to expand...
You've got to keep the secondary players happy too. Also, you need to use secondary players to keep defenses honest...they'll start cheating if they see Romo only targeting three players.
Click to expand...
This makes no sense, you dont have to keep secondary players happy...this is the NFL, not pop warner...everyone dont get to play just because.Also, on an average play, you only have 3 to 4 passing options anyways. So is he suppose to target an inelligable reciever?
 
'IHEARTFF said:
Didn't the Colts have 3 1k yard receivers a few years ago with Harrison, Wayne, and Stokley? Obv Manning > Romo, but I think the Dallas trio is as talented as that trio. Also, I think the primary reason you don't see it is because most teams only have 1 or 2 good receivers. Having 3 great players out there is very rare.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Having 3 great recieving options means someone is open all the time, or that the box only has 7 in it! Both good outcomes for Witten!
 
'IHEARTFF said:
Didn't the Colts have 3 1k yard receivers a few years ago with Harrison, Wayne, and Stokley? Obv Manning > Romo, but I think the Dallas trio is as talented as that trio. Also, I think the primary reason you don't see it is because most teams only have 1 or 2 good receivers. Having 3 great players out there is very rare.
Click to expand...
(Too early to call Austin and Dez great in my opinion.) I started looking into talented passing trios that I could remember to see which ones were able to get close to 800-1k+ yards people are predicting for each of the the Cowbys trio. I looked at others, but they did not have strong enough receiving trios, I only counted WR & TE trios. Could be a difference if RBs were included in a trio such as Reed, Lofton & Thomas).

None of these trios did it

Sharpe, Brooks, Chmura

Brooks, Freeman, Chmura

Rice, Taylor, Jones

Glenn, Jefferson, Coates

Smith, Sharpe, McCaffrey

Wayne, Clark, Harrison

Wayne, Clark, Garcon

Wayne, Clark, Collie

Moore, Morton, Perriman (not TE, but was Run & Shoot, and Barry didn't catch many passes so these 3 were the main targets)

Givins, Slaughter, Jeffries

----------------------------------------------------------------------

These trios did:

1989

Monk 86/1186/8

Sanders 80/1138/4

Clark 79/1229/9

1990

Givins 72/979/9

Hill 74/1019/5

Jeffries 74/1048/8

1991

Givins 70/996/5

Hill 90/1109/4

Jeffries 100/1181/7

2004

Wayne 77/1210/12

Harrison 86/1113/15

Stokley 68/1077/10

None did it with a TE. And arguments can be made that the Cowboys trio is better than some of those I listed, but I think there comes a point where regardless of how talented a trio is, the limitations of the amount of time an offense has during a season to make plays makes it really difficult to have 3 players with nearly 1k+ receiving yards. Unless the Cowboys bring back the Run & Shoot, K-Gun or go no huddle most of the season, it is highly unlikely that at least one amongst Austin, Dez and Witten will not disappoint. It could be all three's ADP makes them too high to risk taking with the uncertainty of which one or 2 will flop for fantasy owners

 
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'IHEARTFF said:
Didn't the Colts have 3 1k yard receivers a few years ago with Harrison, Wayne, and Stokley? Obv Manning > Romo, but I think the Dallas trio is as talented as that trio. Also, I think the primary reason you don't see it is because most teams only have 1 or 2 good receivers. Having 3 great players out there is very rare.
Click to expand...
The chances of having three 1000 yard receivers in a season is very slim. There have been plenty of talented trios who have never done it. I would bet that only one Cowboy catches for 1000 yards, and that is Austin(if he stays relatively healthy).I stll think Bryant and Witten should have decent fantasy season. I could see Bryant getting near 900 yards and 6-8 TD's, and Witten near 800 yards and 5-6 TD's. Felix Jones was also pretty effective out of the backfield last year catching 48 of 51 targets for 9.4 YPC. Granted, the Cowboys should throw alot this season without a true go to RB and a defense that should allow their fair share of points. Romo is a guy i will be targeting in my redrafts this season, but other than him i dont see much value in Dallas players(other than maybe Austin). Witten will offer no value and will likely be overdrafted based on his #1 TE finish last year.
 
'IHEARTFF said:
Didn't the Colts have 3 1k yard receivers a few years ago with Harrison, Wayne, and Stokley? Obv Manning > Romo, but I think the Dallas trio is as talented as that trio. Also, I think the primary reason you don't see it is because most teams only have 1 or 2 good receivers. Having 3 great players out there is very rare.
Click to expand...
Dallas will not pass the ball as much as they have in the recent past. Garrett will try and pound the ball more often. I think you will see Witten's numbers down slightly, you will see Miles Austin's numbers down slightly and I think you'll see Dez Bryant's numbers up overall from last year just because of his talent, 1 full season in the league and getting as much of a camp as everyone else this year.You heard it hear first if you haven't heard it yet. Dallas will run the ball more now that Garrett is the coach.
 
Sorry for the semi-hijack of the Witten thread. Thanks for posting those stats, netnalp!

I can definitely understand if Dallas wants to run more than last year, but, man I would throw just about every down with those 3 guys + Felix out of the backfield. They drafted 2 OT early so Romo should have more time. I can see this being the #1 offense in the NFL next season.

 
'Football Critic said:
'LHUCKS said:
'IHEARTFF said:
Isn't it also possible that Witten, Dez, and Austin all get theirs at the expense of WR3, WR4, TE2 and the RBs? I mean, at least 1 of those 3 will be open basically every play.
Click to expand...
You've got to keep the secondary players happy too. Also, you need to use secondary players to keep defenses honest...they'll start cheating if they see Romo only targeting three players.
Click to expand...
This makes no sense, you dont have to keep secondary players happy...this is the NFL, not pop warner...everyone dont get to play just because.Also, on an average play, you only have 3 to 4 passing options anyways. So is he suppose to target an inelligable reciever?
Click to expand...
Okay, I'm sure you're right. Almost all the targets will go to three players. :rolleyes:
 
'LHUCKS said:
'Football Critic said:
'LHUCKS said:
'IHEARTFF said:
Isn't it also possible that Witten, Dez, and Austin all get theirs at the expense of WR3, WR4, TE2 and the RBs? I mean, at least 1 of those 3 will be open basically every play.
Click to expand...
You've got to keep the secondary players happy too. Also, you need to use secondary players to keep defenses honest...they'll start cheating if they see Romo only targeting three players.
Click to expand...
This makes no sense, you dont have to keep secondary players happy...this is the NFL, not pop warner...everyone dont get to play just because.Also, on an average play, you only have 3 to 4 passing options anyways. So is he suppose to target an inelligable reciever?
Click to expand...
Okay, I'm sure you're right. Almost all the targets will go to three players. :rolleyes:
Click to expand...
No, many people will see many targets.But you said they need to keep the secondary players happy, I disagree, secondary players are a vital role of a game as they fill many roles...Special teams, specialty packages, and other instances like that....but to say you have to put them in there and let them get targets to keep them happy is wrong. If they put them in there on certain plays, they are putting them in there for the benefit of the team, not the benefit to keep them happy. I think you know that, but you just said it wrong.Secondary players are hardly enough to take targets away from Witten in my opinion.Again 3 years straight his targets have not decreased, just gained each year, even if only a few...no matter what the situation, a new coach, new runner blah, it dont matter now as it hasnt mattered before. So if anyone can project a down year because of some factors that have not mattered before or of your gut feeling....then you have a mirror ball. Wittens biggest problem for the next couple years will be himself, or injury. No one can forsee that, so for projection purposes, nothing can dispute that a reasonable projection is between 85-90 catches at a minimum.
 
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'Football Critic said:
No, many people will see many targets.But you said they need to keep the secondary players happy, I disagree, secondary players are a vital role of a game as they fill many roles...Special teams, specialty packages, and other instances like that....but to say you have to put them in there and let them get targets to keep them happy is wrong. If they put them in there on certain plays, they are putting them in there for the benefit of the team, not the benefit to keep them happy. I think you know that, but you just said it wrong.Secondary players are hardly enough to take targets away from Witten in my opinion.Again 3 years straight his targets have not decreased, just gained each year, even if only a few...no matter what the situation, a new coach, new runner blah, it dont matter now as it hasnt mattered before. So if anyone can project a down year because of some factors that have not mattered before or of your gut feeling....then you have a mirror ball. Wittens biggest problem for the next couple years will be himself, or injury. No one can forsee that, so for projection purposes, nothing can dispute that a reasonable projection is between 85-90 catches at a minimum.
Click to expand...
For Witten to catch 85-90 passes, he's going to need at least 125 targets. Romo will likely pass the ball 550 times. You have to assume 90-100 targets to the backs and 90-100 more targets goes to the other WRs/TEs, which leaves about 350-360 targets for Witten, Austin and Bryant. If Witten gets his 125-130 targets, that leaves only 225-230 targets for Austin and Bryant combined. If that's your distribution, then you must think one of Austin or Byrant is going to seriously bust.
 
'netnalp said:
'IHEARTFF said:
Didn't the Colts have 3 1k yard receivers a few years ago with Harrison, Wayne, and Stokley? Obv Manning > Romo, but I think the Dallas trio is as talented as that trio. Also, I think the primary reason you don't see it is because most teams only have 1 or 2 good receivers. Having 3 great players out there is very rare.
Click to expand...
(Too early to call Austin and Dez great in my opinion.) I started looking into talented passing trios that I could remember to see which ones were able to get close to 800-1k+ yards people are predicting for each of the the Cowbys trio.

These trios did:
Click to expand...
Kinda nitpicky, but you left off Fitz-Boldin-Breaston
 
'fightingillini said:
'Football Critic said:
No, many people will see many targets.But you said they need to keep the secondary players happy, I disagree, secondary players are a vital role of a game as they fill many roles...Special teams, specialty packages, and other instances like that....but to say you have to put them in there and let them get targets to keep them happy is wrong. If they put them in there on certain plays, they are putting them in there for the benefit of the team, not the benefit to keep them happy. I think you know that, but you just said it wrong.Secondary players are hardly enough to take targets away from Witten in my opinion.Again 3 years straight his targets have not decreased, just gained each year, even if only a few...no matter what the situation, a new coach, new runner blah, it dont matter now as it hasnt mattered before. So if anyone can project a down year because of some factors that have not mattered before or of your gut feeling....then you have a mirror ball. Wittens biggest problem for the next couple years will be himself, or injury. No one can forsee that, so for projection purposes, nothing can dispute that a reasonable projection is between 85-90 catches at a minimum.
Click to expand...
For Witten to catch 85-90 passes, he's going to need at least 125 targets. Romo will likely pass the ball 550 times. You have to assume 90-100 targets to the backs and 90-100 more targets goes to the other WRs/TEs, which leaves about 350-360 targets for Witten, Austin and Bryant. If Witten gets his 125-130 targets, that leaves only 225-230 targets for Austin and Bryant combined. If that's your distribution, then you must think one of Austin or Byrant is going to seriously bust.
Click to expand...
Witten has had 121, 123, 125 targets each of the last 3 years and caught 90 balls each of the last 2 years, its the same argument and point that must be taken into account that I've been making. I see no reason what so ever from my point of view why his targets would decrease. And we are talking about targets, when in actuallity, targets or not...he performs. He has great hands and can make big plays when ever he has the ball. I dont see why a WR who didnt play a factor much last year, is gonna play a bigger factor now.So..yes I believe Bryant has a good chance to bust, Not saying he will, but who knows with this guy. Why is everyone so sure Bryant wont get in trouble again?...he does have a injury history too.
 
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'Instinctive said:
'netnalp said:
'IHEARTFF said:
Didn't the Colts have 3 1k yard receivers a few years ago with Harrison, Wayne, and Stokley? Obv Manning > Romo, but I think the Dallas trio is as talented as that trio. Also, I think the primary reason you don't see it is because most teams only have 1 or 2 good receivers. Having 3 great players out there is very rare.
Click to expand...
(Too early to call Austin and Dez great in my opinion.) I started looking into talented passing trios that I could remember to see which ones were able to get close to 800-1k+ yards people are predicting for each of the the Cowbys trio.

These trios did:
Click to expand...
Kinda nitpicky, but you left off Fitz-Boldin-Breaston
Click to expand...
That's a good trio too, I'm sure there's others as I only looked at who popped in my head. I also will need to look at Bruce, Holt, (and if there's a skilled 3rd guy other than Faulk), same with Rison, Haynes & (Hatchette/Reed I think), Carter, Moss & ?. Cris Carter and Anthony Carter, Reed and Lofton didn't have a 3rd guy that I recognized as being a big talent, regardless they never were on a team that had a WR/TE trio with 1k+ yards.
 
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