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Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals

Player Page Link: Larry Fitzgerald Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
With D.Anderson, J.Skelton, M.Hall and R.Bartel tossing him the ball, he STILL ended up with 90-1137-6tds.

At worst, he has another year with them and produces same stats(which was still good for WR11)

I am a believer that Ari will grab Kolb ( and if not him, maybe McNabb?) and Fitz's value will return to old status.

I can see a 93-1300+ and 10+tds for the season.

 
Larry Fitzgerald could be the best WR in the league but currently in a bad situation due to not having an elite passing QB throwing him the ball. His athletic ability as a WR is second to none but I am still skeptical about Fitz's situation and think he'll still be inconsistent in 2011 compared to what we've been used to in 2008 and 2009. In my opinion, Fitzgerald will be drafted higher at WR than he'll finish. I think we'll see similar statistics from last year.

86 recpetions for 1080 and 6 td's

5 rushes for 40 yards

 
Any change at QB will likely improve his production from 2010 which was considered a "down" year for him. I think Arizona is making QB it's biggest priority when free agency starts

95 1250 10

 
The best thing that could happen to Fitzgerald is that the Cards 'lose' the bidding war for Kolb and settle for Orton. With any competent QB: 95-1310-11

 
With D.Anderson, J.Skelton, M.Hall and R.Bartel tossing him the ball, he STILL ended up with 90-1137-6tds.At worst, he has another year with them and produces same stats(which was still good for WR11)
Does it not seem more probable that 90/1100 with complete garbage at QB was the best possible result, rather than something that is likely to happen again?It's not worth projecting anything for him yet, I'll wait until they choose a new QB to start. But I can already say that in non-PPR leagues I will be avoiding Fitz.
 
With D.Anderson, J.Skelton, M.Hall and R.Bartel tossing him the ball, he STILL ended up with 90-1137-6tds.At worst, he has another year with them and produces same stats(which was still good for WR11)
Does it not seem more probable that 90/1100 with complete garbage at QB was the best possible result, rather than something that is likely to happen again?It's not worth projecting anything for him yet, I'll wait until they choose a new QB to start. But I can already say that in non-PPR leagues I will be avoiding Fitz.
I see your point, but if no QB is brought in during FA, then the named starter will have more time to "gel" with Fitz instead of a revolving door week after week.I just see 90-1000/6 as fitz' absolute floor, which i will take until he leaves or they find a QB.
 
Does it not seem more probable that 90/1100 with complete garbage at QB was the best possible result, rather than something that is likely to happen again?It's not worth projecting anything for him yet, I'll wait until they choose a new QB to start. But I can already say that in non-PPR leagues I will be avoiding Fitz.
It is not the best possible result, because Fitz entered the season with a torn mcl.
 
I just can't see Arizona running the risk of losing Fitz because they failed to address the QB issue. That said, even if they leave it as is I think 80/1100/8TDs are still possible.

If they get a real QB I could see him at 100/1300/13TDs is doable.

 
All depends on who is QBing in AZ. With the motley crew they trotted out last year, Fitz's numbers were good but not great. If they can get someone like Orton to toss the rock in AZ, look out, can easily be the #1 WR. Based on talent, only AJ and Calvin are in the same league as Fitzgerald.

With the same QBs......90 rec, 1150 yds 8 TD.

With a real QB like Orton......105 rec, 1450 yds, 12 TD

 
Right in the middle of his prime, Fitz is top 3 this year provided there is at least a move towards competency @ the QB position which is generally considered to be happening.

1300-1400 Yards

95-100 Catches

9-12 TDs

I feel like he is being slightly undervalued if anything at this point, esp in Dynasty leagues.

 
Larry's average season over his 7 year career is 87 receptions, 1,172 yards, and 9 TDs. Pretty impressive considering those numbers include a rookie season, a season plagued by injury, and a season without a real QB.

It's clear that the Cardinals will go get Kolb or Orton. Larry has never finished a season with 11 TDs or in the 1,300-1,399 yard range so I'll project 95 receptions, 1,350 yards, and 11 TDs.

 
With D.Anderson, J.Skelton, M.Hall and R.Bartel tossing him the ball, he STILL ended up with 90-1137-6tds.

At worst, he has another year with them and produces same stats(which was still good for WR11)
Does it not seem more probable that 90/1100 with complete garbage at QB was the best possible result, rather than something that is likely to happen again?It's not worth projecting anything for him yet, I'll wait until they choose a new QB to start. But I can already say that in non-PPR leagues I will be avoiding Fitz.
:confused: Why?There aren't many players in the NFL, let alone WRs, with the kind of consistency Larry Fitzgerald has shown. If anything you'll be able to acquire him at a discount this season. He's been top 5 in 4 of his 7 seasons.

 
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With a full year of Chad Hutchinson-level quarterbacking I can certainly imagine a year of fewer than 90 catches. And if he's even, what, 10% worse than last year he really won't be worth that pick.

If they get Orton then yeah obviously he'll be good.

 
'Chicago Hooligan said:
With a full year of Chad Hutchinson-level quarterbacking I can certainly imagine a year of fewer than 90 catches. And if he's even, what, 10% worse than last year he really won't be worth that pick.

If they get Orton then yeah obviously he'll be good.
Chad Hutchinson (3 year career)Completion Percentage: 53.3%

Yards per Attempt: 6.0

TDs: 11

Interceptions: 11

QB Rating: 69.1

Arizona Cardinals QBs (2010)

Completion Percentage: 50.8%

Yards per Attempt: 5.8

TDs: 10

Interceptions: 19

QB Rating: 60.5

I get the idea that you don't fully appreciate just how atrocious Arizona's QB play was last year.

 
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Larry Fitzgerald sparks a lot of conversation this off-season because of his perceived down turn post Kurt Warner. There are some who say that the QB play can't get much worse (and I agree) so let's examine a few stats and see what was the biggest reason the Fits dropped all the way to WR 17 in non-ppr and WR 12 in ppr a year ago.

First, lets see what happened to his targets.

07 - 167 targets in 15 games 11.1 per game

08 - 154 targets in 16 games 9.6 per game

07 - 151 targets in 16 games 9.4 per game

07 - 172 targets in 16 games 10.7 per game

His first season without Anquan Boldin and his targets spiked upward over the past few seasons. Let's look at catch percentage, which is mostly dismissed around here, but might indicate at least a small decrease in QB performance.

07 - 100 catches 167 targets 59.9%

08 - 96 catches 154 targets 62.3%

09 - 97 catches 151 targets 64.2%

10 - 90 catches 172 targets 52.3% Yes, I think that there is room for upside here

And finally with the overall poor offensive performance for the Cardinals, lets look at TDs

07 - 10 TDs

08 - 12 TDs

09 - 13 TDs

10 - 6 TDs

That's two areas for almost certain improvement for Fitz with any improvement overall for the Cardinals offense.

I will allow my confidence in Fitzgerald as a player and my confidence that Arizona knows that they need a QB, as well as the fact that there should be at least a couple and maybe more available that Fitzgerald will see improved stats in 2011.

L. Fitzgerald 16 gms 160 targets 10.0 per game 98 catches 61.3% 1323 yds 13.5 ypc and 11 TDs

 
When a player's reasonable absolute floor (if you watched the Cards last year you KNOW it really couldn't have been a situation that was working against Fitz moreso than it was...terrible year for the Cards) is that he finishes with 90/1100+/6 (FF WR10-12), AND he was not healthy to start the season AND he is an absolute class act that gets it and runs ZERO risk of being a knucklehead, I simply don't know how people can really even have a discussion on him. Fitz is one of the ultra-rare football players that should just be set on automatic and put in the category of "water is wet", "suns gonna rise", Fitz is a top 10 elite WR". I really think people should make better use of their time and discuss things that actually have a chance of ending up dramatically one way or the other.

There were rediculous posts and notions abounding last year about avoiding Fitz and drafting him with the likes of commoners and replaceable players and yet again all he did was produce. There was a really interesting post where people posted their league winning rosters and, coincidentally or not, a HUGE number of those rosters were ones where peope had Fitz. It appears that a lot of the people who were defending him were able to buy low or draft when other people passed on him, getting their stud WR/RBs and then adding Fitz as their "#2" Wr.

I'm hoping that the Cards don't get Kolb. I just haven't been sold on him. But I think if they get Orten or Bulger, Fitz is a lock to get his numbers (as always) PLUS get abck to the 11-15TD range (especially with Orten).

 
When a player's reasonable absolute floor (if you watched the Cards last year you KNOW it really couldn't have been a situation that was working against Fitz moreso than it was...terrible year for the Cards) is that he finishes with 90/1100+/6 (FF WR10-12), AND he was not healthy to start the season AND he is an absolute class act that gets it and runs ZERO risk of being a knucklehead, I simply don't know how people can really even have a discussion on him. Fitz is one of the ultra-rare football players that should just be set on automatic and put in the category of "water is wet", "suns gonna rise", Fitz is a top 10 elite WR". I really think people should make better use of their time and discuss things that actually have a chance of ending up dramatically one way or the other.

There were rediculous posts and notions abounding last year about avoiding Fitz and drafting him with the likes of commoners and replaceable players and yet again all he did was produce. There was a really interesting post where people posted their league winning rosters and, coincidentally or not, a HUGE number of those rosters were ones where peope had Fitz. It appears that a lot of the people who were defending him were able to buy low or draft when other people passed on him, getting their stud WR/RBs and then adding Fitz as their "#2" Wr.

I'm hoping that the Cards don't get Kolb. I just haven't been sold on him. But I think if they get Orten or Bulger, Fitz is a lock to get his numbers (as always) PLUS get abck to the 11-15TD range (especially with Orten).
I agree with most of your post except for the Bulger part. Bulger is done as a starting NFL QB.

With Orton or Kolb I think Fitz is a top 5 wr and should improve greatly on last years numbers.

 
When a player's reasonable absolute floor (if you watched the Cards last year you KNOW it really couldn't have been a situation that was working against Fitz moreso than it was...terrible year for the Cards) is that he finishes with 90/1100+/6 (FF WR10-12), AND he was not healthy to start the season AND he is an absolute class act that gets it and runs ZERO risk of being a knucklehead, I simply don't know how people can really even have a discussion on him. Fitz is one of the ultra-rare football players that should just be set on automatic and put in the category of "water is wet", "suns gonna rise", Fitz is a top 10 elite WR". I really think people should make better use of their time and discuss things that actually have a chance of ending up dramatically one way or the other.

There were rediculous posts and notions abounding last year about avoiding Fitz and drafting him with the likes of commoners and replaceable players and yet again all he did was produce. There was a really interesting post where people posted their league winning rosters and, coincidentally or not, a HUGE number of those rosters were ones where peope had Fitz. It appears that a lot of the people who were defending him were able to buy low or draft when other people passed on him, getting their stud WR/RBs and then adding Fitz as their "#2" Wr.

I'm hoping that the Cards don't get Kolb. I just haven't been sold on him. But I think if they get Orten or Bulger, Fitz is a lock to get his numbers (as always) PLUS get abck to the 11-15TD range (especially with Orten).
Fitzgerald finished as WR 17. He was typically being drafted in the late first-mid 2nd, not great value.

You dont really think having Fitz on your roster last year improved your chances at a championship, right?

 
'Go deep said:
'Shutout said:
When a player's reasonable absolute floor (if you watched the Cards last year you KNOW it really couldn't have been a situation that was working against Fitz moreso than it was...terrible year for the Cards) is that he finishes with 90/1100+/6 (FF WR10-12), AND he was not healthy to start the season AND he is an absolute class act that gets it and runs ZERO risk of being a knucklehead, I simply don't know how people can really even have a discussion on him. Fitz is one of the ultra-rare football players that should just be set on automatic and put in the category of "water is wet", "suns gonna rise", Fitz is a top 10 elite WR". I really think people should make better use of their time and discuss things that actually have a chance of ending up dramatically one way or the other.

There were rediculous posts and notions abounding last year about avoiding Fitz and drafting him with the likes of commoners and replaceable players and yet again all he did was produce. There was a really interesting post where people posted their league winning rosters and, coincidentally or not, a HUGE number of those rosters were ones where peope had Fitz. It appears that a lot of the people who were defending him were able to buy low or draft when other people passed on him, getting their stud WR/RBs and then adding Fitz as their "#2" Wr.

I'm hoping that the Cards don't get Kolb. I just haven't been sold on him. But I think if they get Orten or Bulger, Fitz is a lock to get his numbers (as always) PLUS get abck to the 11-15TD range (especially with Orten).
Fitzgerald finished as WR 17. He was typically being drafted in the late first-mid 2nd, not great value.

You dont really think having Fitz on your roster last year improved your chances at a championship, right?
If he fell in your draft and was your WR2, 110% it improved your chances.......
 
'Go deep said:
'Shutout said:
When a player's reasonable absolute floor (if you watched the Cards last year you KNOW it really couldn't have been a situation that was working against Fitz moreso than it was...terrible year for the Cards) is that he finishes with 90/1100+/6 (FF WR10-12), AND he was not healthy to start the season AND he is an absolute class act that gets it and runs ZERO risk of being a knucklehead, I simply don't know how people can really even have a discussion on him. Fitz is one of the ultra-rare football players that should just be set on automatic and put in the category of "water is wet", "suns gonna rise", Fitz is a top 10 elite WR". I really think people should make better use of their time and discuss things that actually have a chance of ending up dramatically one way or the other.

There were rediculous posts and notions abounding last year about avoiding Fitz and drafting him with the likes of commoners and replaceable players and yet again all he did was produce. There was a really interesting post where people posted their league winning rosters and, coincidentally or not, a HUGE number of those rosters were ones where peope had Fitz. It appears that a lot of the people who were defending him were able to buy low or draft when other people passed on him, getting their stud WR/RBs and then adding Fitz as their "#2" Wr.

I'm hoping that the Cards don't get Kolb. I just haven't been sold on him. But I think if they get Orten or Bulger, Fitz is a lock to get his numbers (as always) PLUS get abck to the 11-15TD range (especially with Orten).
Fitzgerald finished as WR 17. He was typically being drafted in the late first-mid 2nd, not great value.

You dont really think having Fitz on your roster last year improved your chances at a championship, right?
If he fell in your draft and was your WR2, 110% it improved your chances.......
He was being drafted in the 2nd round, so if he was your 2nd WR that of course means you drafted a WR in the first round. That WR was likely Andre Johnson who finished #9. Thats means you spent your first two picks on WR9 and WR17. It could certainly be worse, but i would hope for better from my first two picks in a redraft. Getting WR17 in the 2nd round is no very good value no matter who you took in the first round. Sure, you could have won a championship while drafing Fitzgerald in the 2nd, but it will not be because of that. Its likely most teams had a WR on their team they drafted after Fitz who finished higher than him.

 
'Go deep said:
'Shutout said:
When a player's reasonable absolute floor (if you watched the Cards last year you KNOW it really couldn't have been a situation that was working against Fitz moreso than it was...terrible year for the Cards) is that he finishes with 90/1100+/6 (FF WR10-12), AND he was not healthy to start the season AND he is an absolute class act that gets it and runs ZERO risk of being a knucklehead, I simply don't know how people can really even have a discussion on him. Fitz is one of the ultra-rare football players that should just be set on automatic and put in the category of "water is wet", "suns gonna rise", Fitz is a top 10 elite WR". I really think people should make better use of their time and discuss things that actually have a chance of ending up dramatically one way or the other.

There were rediculous posts and notions abounding last year about avoiding Fitz and drafting him with the likes of commoners and replaceable players and yet again all he did was produce. There was a really interesting post where people posted their league winning rosters and, coincidentally or not, a HUGE number of those rosters were ones where peope had Fitz. It appears that a lot of the people who were defending him were able to buy low or draft when other people passed on him, getting their stud WR/RBs and then adding Fitz as their "#2" Wr.

I'm hoping that the Cards don't get Kolb. I just haven't been sold on him. But I think if they get Orten or Bulger, Fitz is a lock to get his numbers (as always) PLUS get abck to the 11-15TD range (especially with Orten).
Fitzgerald finished as WR 17. He was typically being drafted in the late first-mid 2nd, not great value.

You dont really think having Fitz on your roster last year improved your chances at a championship, right?
If he fell in your draft and was your WR2, 110% it improved your chances.......
He was being drafted in the 2nd round, so if he was your 2nd WR that of course means you drafted a WR in the first round. That WR was likely Andre Johnson who finished #9. Thats means you spent your first two picks on WR9 and WR17. It could certainly be worse, but i would hope for better from my first two picks in a redraft. Getting WR17 in the 2nd round is no very good value no matter who you took in the first round. Sure, you could have won a championship while drafing Fitzgerald in the 2nd, but it will not be because of that. Its likely most teams had a WR on their team they drafted after Fitz who finished higher than him.
:goodposting: More likely, it was because you got a guy like Foster, Hillis, McFadden, Lloyd, etc. much later in the draft. I love Fitz and all, but to try and say he was the key to a team's FF championship is ridiculous. Fitz owners may have won it all, but it was in spite of drafting Fitz, not because of it.

 
'Go deep said:
'Shutout said:
When a player's reasonable absolute floor (if you watched the Cards last year you KNOW it really couldn't have been a situation that was working against Fitz moreso than it was...terrible year for the Cards) is that he finishes with 90/1100+/6 (FF WR10-12), AND he was not healthy to start the season AND he is an absolute class act that gets it and runs ZERO risk of being a knucklehead, I simply don't know how people can really even have a discussion on him. Fitz is one of the ultra-rare football players that should just be set on automatic and put in the category of "water is wet", "suns gonna rise", Fitz is a top 10 elite WR". I really think people should make better use of their time and discuss things that actually have a chance of ending up dramatically one way or the other.

There were rediculous posts and notions abounding last year about avoiding Fitz and drafting him with the likes of commoners and replaceable players and yet again all he did was produce. There was a really interesting post where people posted their league winning rosters and, coincidentally or not, a HUGE number of those rosters were ones where peope had Fitz. It appears that a lot of the people who were defending him were able to buy low or draft when other people passed on him, getting their stud WR/RBs and then adding Fitz as their "#2" Wr.

I'm hoping that the Cards don't get Kolb. I just haven't been sold on him. But I think if they get Orten or Bulger, Fitz is a lock to get his numbers (as always) PLUS get abck to the 11-15TD range (especially with Orten).
Fitzgerald finished as WR 17. He was typically being drafted in the late first-mid 2nd, not great value.

You dont really think having Fitz on your roster last year improved your chances at a championship, right?
If he fell in your draft and was your WR2, 110% it improved your chances.......
He was being drafted in the 2nd round, so if he was your 2nd WR that of course means you drafted a WR in the first round. That WR was likely Andre Johnson who finished #9. Thats means you spent your first two picks on WR9 and WR17. It could certainly be worse, but i would hope for better from my first two picks in a redraft. Getting WR17 in the 2nd round is no very good value no matter who you took in the first round. Sure, you could have won a championship while drafing Fitzgerald in the 2nd, but it will not be because of that. Its likely most teams had a WR on their team they drafted after Fitz who finished higher than him.
:goodposting: More likely, it was because you got a guy like Foster, Hillis, McFadden, Lloyd, etc. much later in the draft. I love Fitz and all, but to try and say he was the key to a team's FF championship is ridiculous. Fitz owners may have won it all, but it was in spite of drafting Fitz, not because of it.
I agree with both of you, but just stating that having Fitz as a WR2 IMPROVES your chances of winning it all. I didn't say he was the reason, but just IMPROVED the chance :) And he was WR11 in my PPR leagues.
 
'Go deep said:
'Shutout said:
When a player's reasonable absolute floor (if you watched the Cards last year you KNOW it really couldn't have been a situation that was working against Fitz moreso than it was...terrible year for the Cards) is that he finishes with 90/1100+/6 (FF WR10-12), AND he was not healthy to start the season AND he is an absolute class act that gets it and runs ZERO risk of being a knucklehead, I simply don't know how people can really even have a discussion on him. Fitz is one of the ultra-rare football players that should just be set on automatic and put in the category of "water is wet", "suns gonna rise", Fitz is a top 10 elite WR". I really think people should make better use of their time and discuss things that actually have a chance of ending up dramatically one way or the other.

There were rediculous posts and notions abounding last year about avoiding Fitz and drafting him with the likes of commoners and replaceable players and yet again all he did was produce. There was a really interesting post where people posted their league winning rosters and, coincidentally or not, a HUGE number of those rosters were ones where peope had Fitz. It appears that a lot of the people who were defending him were able to buy low or draft when other people passed on him, getting their stud WR/RBs and then adding Fitz as their "#2" Wr.

I'm hoping that the Cards don't get Kolb. I just haven't been sold on him. But I think if they get Orten or Bulger, Fitz is a lock to get his numbers (as always) PLUS get abck to the 11-15TD range (especially with Orten).
Fitzgerald finished as WR 17. He was typically being drafted in the late first-mid 2nd, not great value.

You dont really think having Fitz on your roster last year improved your chances at a championship, right?
If he fell in your draft and was your WR2, 110% it improved your chances.......
He was being drafted in the 2nd round, so if he was your 2nd WR that of course means you drafted a WR in the first round. That WR was likely Andre Johnson who finished #9. Thats means you spent your first two picks on WR9 and WR17. It could certainly be worse, but i would hope for better from my first two picks in a redraft. Getting WR17 in the 2nd round is no very good value no matter who you took in the first round. Sure, you could have won a championship while drafing Fitzgerald in the 2nd, but it will not be because of that. Its likely most teams had a WR on their team they drafted after Fitz who finished higher than him.
:goodposting: More likely, it was because you got a guy like Foster, Hillis, McFadden, Lloyd, etc. much later in the draft. I love Fitz and all, but to try and say he was the key to a team's FF championship is ridiculous. Fitz owners may have won it all, but it was in spite of drafting Fitz, not because of it.
I agree with both of you, but just stating that having Fitz as a WR2 IMPROVES your chances of winning it all. I didn't say he was the reason, but just IMPROVED the chance :) And he was WR11 in my PPR leagues.
Who has the better chance to win it all with everything else being equal, the guy who takes Fitz with his 2nd round pick, or the guy who took Greg Jennings with his 4th, or Dwayne Bowe with his 6th, or any of the other top 15 WR's that were drafted between rounds 3 and 7? Point being taking Fitz in the 2nd didnt improve your chances of winning a championship. Let me ask you this, if you knew Fitz was going to put up the EXACT same numbers he did last season, would you take him with your 2nd round pick in a 2011 redraft?
 
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the old adage is that you don't win your league in the first few rounds but you CAN lose it. if you believe that, doesn't larry fit that description to a T? you don't lose when you grab the WR11 in the 2nd round. no one took lloyd and steve johnson so the 11 is really the 9. you lose when you take ryan mathews in the 2nd, which is where he went last year. the point is to win the championship, and to do that you don't have to have every player outproduce their draft slot...sometimes you just need them to not flame out. fitz doesnt flame out. ever. injuries can happen to anyone, but he's never going to half-### it like moss (who went in the top 10 last year.)

 
'Go deep said:
'Shutout said:
When a player's reasonable absolute floor (if you watched the Cards last year you KNOW it really couldn't have been a situation that was working against Fitz moreso than it was...terrible year for the Cards) is that he finishes with 90/1100+/6 (FF WR10-12), AND he was not healthy to start the season AND he is an absolute class act that gets it and runs ZERO risk of being a knucklehead, I simply don't know how people can really even have a discussion on him. Fitz is one of the ultra-rare football players that should just be set on automatic and put in the category of "water is wet", "suns gonna rise", Fitz is a top 10 elite WR". I really think people should make better use of their time and discuss things that actually have a chance of ending up dramatically one way or the other.

There were rediculous posts and notions abounding last year about avoiding Fitz and drafting him with the likes of commoners and replaceable players and yet again all he did was produce. There was a really interesting post where people posted their league winning rosters and, coincidentally or not, a HUGE number of those rosters were ones where peope had Fitz. It appears that a lot of the people who were defending him were able to buy low or draft when other people passed on him, getting their stud WR/RBs and then adding Fitz as their "#2" Wr.

I'm hoping that the Cards don't get Kolb. I just haven't been sold on him. But I think if they get Orten or Bulger, Fitz is a lock to get his numbers (as always) PLUS get abck to the 11-15TD range (especially with Orten).
Fitzgerald finished as WR 17. He was typically being drafted in the late first-mid 2nd, not great value.

You dont really think having Fitz on your roster last year improved your chances at a championship, right?
If he fell in your draft and was your WR2, 110% it improved your chances.......
He was being drafted in the 2nd round, so if he was your 2nd WR that of course means you drafted a WR in the first round. That WR was likely Andre Johnson who finished #9. Thats means you spent your first two picks on WR9 and WR17. It could certainly be worse, but i would hope for better from my first two picks in a redraft. Getting WR17 in the 2nd round is no very good value no matter who you took in the first round. Sure, you could have won a championship while drafing Fitzgerald in the 2nd, but it will not be because of that. Its likely most teams had a WR on their team they drafted after Fitz who finished higher than him.
:goodposting: More likely, it was because you got a guy like Foster, Hillis, McFadden, Lloyd, etc. much later in the draft. I love Fitz and all, but to try and say he was the key to a team's FF championship is ridiculous. Fitz owners may have won it all, but it was in spite of drafting Fitz, not because of it.
I agree with both of you, but just stating that having Fitz as a WR2 IMPROVES your chances of winning it all. I didn't say he was the reason, but just IMPROVED the chance :) And he was WR11 in my PPR leagues.
Sure, and if you had AP as your #3 RB, that would have improved your chances as well. Obviously, AP wasn't drafted to be your #3 RB, just like Fitz wasn't drafted to be your #2 WR. Even if he was in 2% of leagues, he wasn't even that good of a WR #2 (in non-ppr,- in ppr no way was he drafted to be a #2 WR). You have to factor in draft position, and Fitz did not live up to his draft position last year. Having a player fall short of his draft position does not improve your chances to win.

 
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the old adage is that you don't win your league in the first few rounds but you CAN lose it. if you believe that, doesn't larry fit that description to a T? you don't lose when you grab the WR11 in the 2nd round. no one took lloyd and steve johnson so the 11 is really the 9. you lose when you take ryan mathews in the 2nd, which is where he went last year. the point is to win the championship, and to do that you don't have to have every player outproduce their draft slot...sometimes you just need them to not flame out. fitz doesnt flame out. ever. injuries can happen to anyone, but he's never going to half-### it like moss (who went in the top 10 last year.)
This. WR11 is pretty much Fitzgeralds floor.
 
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the old adage is that you don't win your league in the first few rounds but you CAN lose it. if you believe that, doesn't larry fit that description to a T? you don't lose when you grab the WR11 in the 2nd round. no one took lloyd and steve johnson so the 11 is really the 9. you lose when you take ryan mathews in the 2nd, which is where he went last year. the point is to win the championship, and to do that you don't have to have every player outproduce their draft slot...sometimes you just need them to not flame out. fitz doesnt flame out. ever. injuries can happen to anyone, but he's never going to half-### it like moss (who went in the top 10 last year.)
Not necessarily, since the guy who did that most likely had Tolbert. Thats beside the point. though(plus Mathews ADP wasnt the 2nd round). I didnt say Fitz would ruin your chance, just that he didnt help it. Nobody won their league because of Fitzgerald. Guys won their league because they drafted Foster in the 6th, or picked up Vick of the waiver wire, etc. You dont win your league because you took the #17 WR in the 2nd round(or #11 in PPR, which means you probably took him in the first).

Somebody mentioned they saw Fitz on alot of peoples teams who listed their championship lineup. That is strictly a coincidence, if its even true. Im sure if we could get a big enough sample size we would see that Fitzgerald was on less than 1 of every 12 championship teams(12 team leagues). He was picked in the early/mid 2nd round of most drafts i seen(non-ppr), does anyone think he was even one of the best 3 picks in the 2nd round of any draft? Yes, he was better than Mathews, but in order to increase your odds of winnng a championship he would have needed to be better than everyone in that round, or at least in the top 3 or 4(especially since he was picked in the begining of the round). Your not going to win a championship by getting the 6th best player in every round.

 
the old adage is that you don't win your league in the first few rounds but you CAN lose it. if you believe that, doesn't larry fit that description to a T? you don't lose when you grab the WR11 in the 2nd round. no one took lloyd and steve johnson so the 11 is really the 9. you lose when you take ryan mathews in the 2nd, which is where he went last year. the point is to win the championship, and to do that you don't have to have every player outproduce their draft slot...sometimes you just need them to not flame out. fitz doesnt flame out. ever. injuries can happen to anyone, but he's never going to half-### it like moss (who went in the top 10 last year.)
Not necessarily, since the guy who did that most likely had Tolbert. Thats beside the point. though(plus Mathews ADP wasnt the 2nd round). I didnt say Fitz would ruin your chance, just that he didnt help it. Nobody won their league because of Fitzgerald. Guys won their league because they drafted Foster in the 6th, or picked up Vick of the waiver wire, etc. You dont win your league because you took the #17 WR in the 2nd round(or #11 in PPR, which means you probably took him in the first).

Somebody mentioned they saw Fitz on alot of peoples teams who listed their championship lineup. That is strictly a coincidence, if its even true. Im sure if we could get a big enough sample size we would see that Fitzgerald was on less than 1 of every 12 championship teams(12 team leagues). He was picked in the early/mid 2nd round of most drafts i seen(non-ppr), does anyone think he was even one of the best 3 picks in the 2nd round of any draft? Yes, he was better than Mathews, but in order to increase your odds of winnng a championship he would have needed to be better than everyone in that round, or at least in the top 3 or 4(especially since he was picked in the begining of the round). Your not going to win a championship by getting the 6th best player in every round.
i was in 5 leagues last year. one of the teams that had mathews had tolbert as well. 2 had to trade for him.

there isn't A reason any team won their league. if anyone believes there is ONE way to win a championship that person is a fool. i played in one 12-team redraft last year and just happened to win the championship. i had the first pick and took johnson. RB6. at the next turn i took calvin and miles austin (our league is heavy on QB scoring, thus they tend to go early) WR6 and WR13. i grabbed best and finley at the next turn RB20, TE39...you can see where this is going. i idiotically traded mike wallace and mcfadden for NYG steve smith in week 2. i drafted knowshon and donald brown and jacoby jones. i don't think i ended up with the highest scoring player in any single round of the draft after making that trade. i didn't have foster or lloyd or vick or steve johnson. i did pick up tamme and hillis.

what's the point? the point is that your draft is probably half the process, and hopefully you get enough players that you can use all year long so you dont have to rely so heavily on the waiver wire. the rest is roster management. you dont always have to swing for the fences. given all that, fitz was a good pick. when your second-rounder hits his floor and still ends up in the top 12 (PPR) you made a smart pick. high-upside/high-floor is EXACTLY what we're hoping for early on.

and you absolutely CAN win your league taking the 6th best player in every round. last year proved it.

btw, i should offer some kind of prediction for 2011 for fitz:

100/1300/10

 
the old adage is that you don't win your league in the first few rounds but you CAN lose it. if you believe that, doesn't larry fit that description to a T? you don't lose when you grab the WR11 in the 2nd round. no one took lloyd and steve johnson so the 11 is really the 9. you lose when you take ryan mathews in the 2nd, which is where he went last year. the point is to win the championship, and to do that you don't have to have every player outproduce their draft slot...sometimes you just need them to not flame out. fitz doesnt flame out. ever. injuries can happen to anyone, but he's never going to half-### it like moss (who went in the top 10 last year.)
Not necessarily, since the guy who did that most likely had Tolbert. Thats beside the point. though(plus Mathews ADP wasnt the 2nd round). I didnt say Fitz would ruin your chance, just that he didnt help it. Nobody won their league because of Fitzgerald. Guys won their league because they drafted Foster in the 6th, or picked up Vick of the waiver wire, etc. You dont win your league because you took the #17 WR in the 2nd round(or #11 in PPR, which means you probably took him in the first).

Somebody mentioned they saw Fitz on alot of peoples teams who listed their championship lineup. That is strictly a coincidence, if its even true. Im sure if we could get a big enough sample size we would see that Fitzgerald was on less than 1 of every 12 championship teams(12 team leagues). He was picked in the early/mid 2nd round of most drafts i seen(non-ppr), does anyone think he was even one of the best 3 picks in the 2nd round of any draft? Yes, he was better than Mathews, but in order to increase your odds of winnng a championship he would have needed to be better than everyone in that round, or at least in the top 3 or 4(especially since he was picked in the begining of the round). Your not going to win a championship by getting the 6th best player in every round.
i was in 5 leagues last year. one of the teams that had mathews had tolbert as well. 2 had to trade for him.

there isn't A reason any team won their league. if anyone believes there is ONE way to win a championship that person is a fool. i played in one 12-team redraft last year and just happened to win the championship. i had the first pick and took johnson. RB6. at the next turn i took calvin and miles austin (our league is heavy on QB scoring, thus they tend to go early) WR6 and WR13. i grabbed best and finley at the next turn RB20, TE39...you can see where this is going. i idiotically traded mike wallace and mcfadden for NYG steve smith in week 2. i drafted knowshon and donald brown and jacoby jones. i don't think i ended up with the highest scoring player in any single round of the draft after making that trade. i didn't have foster or lloyd or vick or steve johnson. i did pick up tamme and hillis.

what's the point? the point is that your draft is probably half the process, and hopefully you get enough players that you can use all year long so you dont have to rely so heavily on the waiver wire. the rest is roster management. you dont always have to swing for the fences. given all that, fitz was a good pick. when your second-rounder hits his floor and still ends up in the top 12 (PPR) you made a smart pick. high-upside/high-floor is EXACTLY what we're hoping for early on.

and you absolutely CAN win your league taking the 6th best player in every round. last year proved it.

btw, i should offer some kind of prediction for 2011 for fitz:

100/1300/10
I asked someone this and never got a response. I will ask you. If you knew Fitzgerald would put up the exact same numbers as he did last year would you draft him with your early/mid 2nd round pick this year? Or end of the first if you do PPR?
 
I asked someone this and never got a response. I will ask you. If you knew Fitzgerald would put up the exact same numbers as he did last year would you draft him with your early/mid 2nd round pick this year? Or end of the first if you do PPR?

Obviously not... but it doesn't prove anything. I think the point is, Fitz is not going to bust; last year was as close to busting as he is going to get for the forseeable future. He underperformed @ WR11.

How many WR's do you put ahead of Fitz going into 2011/2? What is the point you're trying to make?

Edit to add: for the previous 4 seasons, Fitz was a top 7 performer in PPR. If you look @ his company in those top 7's, there is a quite a bit of turnover. Of current active players, Fitz, AJ, Wayne are consistanty there or there abouts barring injury... White and Megatron have joined the ranks in recent years and Nicks looks like he's primed to join them.

 
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Obviously not... but it doesn't prove anything. I think the point is, Fitz is not going to bust; last year was as close to busting as he is going to get for the forseeable future. He underperformed @ WR11.

How many WR's do you put ahead of Fitz going into 2011/2? What is the point you're trying to make?
It sure does, it proves the only point i was trying to make. It means that taking Fitz in the early 2nd round last year was not the key to anyones success, and certainly didnt give anyone an advantage. I NEVER said it was the worst pick, or it would cost you a playoff spot.

What does him underperformng last year have to do with anythng that i am talking about? If anything it helps prove my point.

 
Obviously not... but it doesn't prove anything. I think the point is, Fitz is not going to bust; last year was as close to busting as he is going to get for the forseeable future. He underperformed @ WR11.

How many WR's do you put ahead of Fitz going into 2011/2? What is the point you're trying to make?
It sure does, it proves the only point i was trying to make. It means that taking Fitz in the early 2nd round last year was not the key to anyones success, and certainly didnt give anyone an advantage. I NEVER said it was the worst pick, or it would cost you a playoff spot.

What does him underperformng last year have to do with anythng that i am talking about? If anything it helps prove my point.
Your argument seems to be more of a general "you win your league by drafting well in the mid to late rounds". If so, I'm down with that. However, solid plays like Fitz are also part of that equation.

 
Obviously not... but it doesn't prove anything. I think the point is, Fitz is not going to bust; last year was as close to busting as he is going to get for the forseeable future. He underperformed @ WR11.

How many WR's do you put ahead of Fitz going into 2011/2? What is the point you're trying to make?
It sure does, it proves the only point i was trying to make. It means that taking Fitz in the early 2nd round last year was not the key to anyones success, and certainly didnt give anyone an advantage. I NEVER said it was the worst pick, or it would cost you a playoff spot.

What does him underperformng last year have to do with anythng that i am talking about? If anything it helps prove my point.
Your argument seems to be more of a general "you win your league by drafting well in the mid to late rounds". If so, I'm down with that. However, solid plays like Fitz are also part of that equation.
While i tend to agree with this, it has nothing to do with my point. Which i am done hijacking this thread with. Fitz was not a solid play last year, he didnt kill your chances, but knowing what we know now nobody would have taken him at his ADP last season. I wouldnt take him in the 2nd round of non-pprs this year either. While they might get a better QB, their offense isnt going to be much better and there still wont be alot of TDs to go around. I see another 85-90 catch season with 1100-1200 yards and between 6-8 TD's. Not bad, but not what i want out of my #1 WR.

 
Obviously not... but it doesn't prove anything. I think the point is, Fitz is not going to bust; last year was as close to busting as he is going to get for the forseeable future. He underperformed @ WR11.

How many WR's do you put ahead of Fitz going into 2011/2? What is the point you're trying to make?
It sure does, it proves the only point i was trying to make. It means that taking Fitz in the early 2nd round last year was not the key to anyones success, and certainly didnt give anyone an advantage. I NEVER said it was the worst pick, or it would cost you a playoff spot.

What does him underperformng last year have to do with anythng that i am talking about? If anything it helps prove my point.
Your argument seems to be more of a general "you win your league by drafting well in the mid to late rounds". If so, I'm down with that. However, solid plays like Fitz are also part of that equation.
While i tend to agree with this, it has nothing to do with my point. Which i am done hijacking this thread with. Fitz was not a solid play last year, he didnt kill your chances, but knowing what we know now nobody would have taken him at his ADP last season. I wouldnt take him in the 2nd round of non-pprs this year either. While they might get a better QB, their offense isnt going to be much better and there still wont be alot of TDs to go around. I see another 85-90 catch season with 1100-1200 yards and between 6-8 TD's. Not bad, but not what i want out of my #1 WR.
I'm interested to know the WR's you think will outperform Fitz this year - those you would spend a 1-2 round pick on.

This must be your point - only WRs XYZ are draftable in the 1st 2 rounds.

 
bump on this thread :

97-1275 - 13

Reading a lot of good info about he and Kolb's connection off the field : Happy & healthy Larry + Kolb + easy schedule and great playoff potential = top 3 WR 2011.

 
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'Largent said:
bump on this thread :97-1275 - 13Reading a lot of good info about he and Kolb's connection off the field : Happy & healthy Larry + Kolb + easy schedule and great playoff potential = top 3 WR 2011.
Agreed, I think Larry is (skill wise) the best WR in the NFL. I think he sees alot targets this year and does alot with his chances.
 
Fitz or Vincent Jackson?
I don't think you can go wrong with either one.I think Fitz is the best receiver in the game and has a much higher floor, but Vincent Jackson could have a higher ceiling (this year) if he explodes as I think he could with Rivers at the helm.Kolb has looked okay in the preseason and that's what Fitz buyers are looking for. Larry is a beast, but I don't think he has as much around him which could hurt him, although double coverage has never seemed to stop the guy.Rivers and Jackson seem to be hooking up well so far this preseason and ol Man Rivers seems to be looking to him often. Gates may scare people away, but if anything I think Gates opens up the passing game for Jackson.The safe bet says Fitz because you know you are going to get production, but I think Jackson is in line for a potential breakout year and could be #2 behind Calvin.These opinions are non PPR opinions.
 
I think this is the year Fitz gets back at it. I could see him as the #1 WR this year (for reference, I was very down on him last year). He is 100% healthy, and he and Kolb do seem to have some chemistry. Kolb has stated on several occasions that he knows his job is to get the ball to Fitz, and that he wants them to go down in history as one of the great QB/WR tandems.

The vibe in AZ is 180 degrees different from last year at this time, and there is a sense that something really good could be happening with Kolb and Fitz.

One more note - the Cards D and specifically the secondary is going to be HORRIBLE this year. I think we will see a lot of high scoring games, similar to what we saw when Warner was here. The offense won't be as good, but Fitz could see a million balls come his way this year, especially during garbage/catch-up time.

 
I think this is the year Fitz gets back at it. I could see him as the #1 WR this year (for reference, I was very down on him last year). He is 100% healthy, and he and Kolb do seem to have some chemistry. Kolb has stated on several occasions that he knows his job is to get the ball to Fitz, and that he wants them to go down in history as one of the great QB/WR tandems.The vibe in AZ is 180 degrees different from last year at this time, and there is a sense that something really good could be happening with Kolb and Fitz.One more note - the Cards D and specifically the secondary is going to be HORRIBLE this year. I think we will see a lot of high scoring games, similar to what we saw when Warner was here. The offense won't be as good, but Fitz could see a million balls come his way this year, especially during garbage/catch-up time.
Its not a well kept secret in another forum that I have a very strong connection to this situation. Now that my own draft is over ( ;) ) and I have secured Fitz, I will say that I was told personally that you can expect 100 plus catches this year for Fitz- barring injury. I know that the TD to Fitz the other night was an audible that Kevin called at the line and worked beautifully. Expect many more, Cards fans. The atmosphere in AZ has changed tremendously since KK has took over the QB spot. They are excited and expect alot of good hook ups for Fitz and #2 Roberts. I sure hope to see the "Good Guys" in this crazy NFL business get their just due.
 
I didn't have a chance to see the game tonight - was Fitzgerald doubled or is Kolb just focusing on Doucet?
A bit of both. Kolb seems unable to throw the ball down the field, so he keeps checking to the underneath routes, which is what Doucet is running.
 

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