Mike Wallace, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 Viewer)

2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Mike Wallace, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Player Page Link: Mike Wallace Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

I will go into detail later but for now I have expectations of

75 1380 13

that is my expectation, I see more upside and a higher ceiling.

I see about the same as MS above. I think his targets will be about like the 2nd half of 2010, a pace of 120 for the season.

120 - 72 - 1400 - 11.

Wallace was the 5th ranked WR in my PPR dynasty in 2010, and he did that with fewer recpetions (60) than all but one of the top 20 ranked WRs in that league (excluding D. Jackson who ranked WR 12 with 47 recpetions). What's even more impressive is that he started off the season with the likes of Charlie Batch and Dennis Dixon throwing to him for the first 4 weeks while Big Ben was suspended. With an average of 85+ receptions for top WRs, Wallace certainly has a little more room to grow on his 60 receptions for 1257 yards and 10 TDs in 2010. If he can maintain that 16.7 after the catch average, we might be looking at 1600 yards with 85+ catches, possibly with an additional 1-3 TDs if those additional targets come in the red zone.

Projecting Wallace to flirt with breaking into the top 12 single season receiving yard leaders of all time is a pretty bold predicition (Rod Smith and Lance Alworth are tied 12th with 1602 yards), and while I think it's unlikely (aside from Wallace himself, it would take healthy and productive seasons from several players in Pittsburgh for it to happen, not to mention the type of game planning that would fall in Wallace's favor), it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility.

On a more realistic level, I think 1400 and 12 TD's is within Wallace's grasp if he stays healthy and we get a full season in 2011.

Who needs Santonio Holmes? Wallace broke out in a big way in his 2nd season. He will never be a 90 catch guy, but is one of the fastest, most explosive WR's in the league. Will be a bit inconsistent from week to week, but will still make a solid WR2 in non-ppr's.

110 targets, 60 rec, 1100 yards, 8 TD's

'Go deep said:

Who needs Santonio Holmes? Wallace broke out in a big way in his 2nd season. He will never be a 90 catch guy, but is one of the fastest, most explosive WR's in the league. Will be a bit inconsistent from week to week, but will still make a solid WR2 in non-ppr's. 110 targets, 60 rec, 1100 yards, 8 TD's

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A WR2 or the number 2 WR in fantasy?Finished as WR6 in my non-PPR league last year - and that was as a year 2 guy with his QB out the first month of the season.He was a very raw talent coming into the league and I don't think he takes a step back in Year 3. 70 rec, 1450 yds, 13 TDs.

'Truman said:

'Go deep said:

Who needs Santonio Holmes? Wallace broke out in a big way in his 2nd season. He will never be a 90 catch guy, but is one of the fastest, most explosive WR's in the league. Will be a bit inconsistent from week to week, but will still make a solid WR2 in non-ppr's. 110 targets, 60 rec, 1100 yards, 8 TD's

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A WR2 or the number 2 WR in fantasy?Finished as WR6 in my non-PPR league last year - and that was as a year 2 guy with his QB out the first month of the season.He was a very raw talent coming into the league and I don't think he takes a step back in Year 3. 70 rec, 1450 yds, 13 TDs.

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Im not sure what made him any more raw coming into the league than other WR's. He played WR all four years in college and even started 12 games in his freshman year. He was 23 during his rookie season in the NFL, which is older than alot of rookie WR's. He came into the league the same year as Kenny Britt, who is two years younger than Wallace. Not that this matters too much, just not sure what made him any more raw than other WR's.I like Wallace, and im not projecting him to take a step backwards, im just not expecting a jump forward. I expect similar numbers to last year, just a little lower YPC(from 20 to 18) and two less TD's. Its tought to project double digit TD's for guys who are pretty much just deep threats. Can we really count on 9 TD's of 20+ yards again(and 8 from more than 30 yards out)? Im not willing to gamble on that with my WR1. Love to have him as my WR2 though. Also, even though Big Ben was out the first four games, Wallace still did OK. He had his 2nd best game of the season in week 3.

Wow! 7 projections and 6 of them have Wallace topping 1380 yards??? Basically, 6 people calling him WR1. Gotta look a little closer at this guy.

'We Tigers said:

Wow! 7 projections and 6 of them have Wallace topping 1380 yards??? Basically, 6 people calling him WR1. Gotta look a little closer at this guy.

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I think you will find that the projections for every player in the spotlight threads are inflated. People tend to only post in the threads of players they own/like, so you have to take that into account when reading them.

'Go deep said:

'We Tigers said:

Wow! 7 projections and 6 of them have Wallace topping 1380 yards??? Basically, 6 people calling him WR1. Gotta look a little closer at this guy.

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I think you will find that the projections for every player in the spotlight threads are inflated. People tend to only post in the threads of players they own/like, so you have to take that into account when reading them.

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I strong disagree with that. I've seen plenty of player spotlights where there is some serious bashing of the player in question. Its a valid theory for THIS thread (as projecting 1400+ yards for Wallace is quite high, although reachable) but I think the player spotlight threads in general are pretty reasonable with their projects.

'Phlash said:

'Go deep said:

'We Tigers said:

Wow! 7 projections and 6 of them have Wallace topping 1380 yards??? Basically, 6 people calling him WR1. Gotta look a little closer at this guy.

Click to expand...

I think you will find that the projections for every player in the spotlight threads are inflated. People tend to only post in the threads of players they own/like, so you have to take that into account when reading them.

Click to expand...

I strong disagree with that. I've seen plenty of player spotlights where there is some serious bashing of the player in question. Its a valid theory for THIS thread (as projecting 1400+ yards for Wallace is quite high, although reachable) but I think the player spotlight threads in general are pretty reasonable with their projects.

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Youre right, not all people do this, but its seems the majority do. Sometimes it will also draw those who really dont like the player. With all the player spotlights, nobody can post in all of them, so people dont usually post in spotlight threads when the have a neutral feeling towards a player.

65 rec, 1200 yards, 7 TD's

I completely agree that the spotlight projections are generally massively inflated.

73 receptions

1335 yds

11 TD

18.2 ypc

His 10 catch rate is not out of line that you'll see a regression there. Adding in 13 receptions from 10 and ticking his ypc down a wee bit. He led the league in YAR and I'd be surprised if that's not the case again. He's already demonstrated that he's one of the premier talents in the game at his position and is a massive value at his auction price/draft position.

Not ready for a Mike Wallace projection but I think the real value pick for the Steelers will be Emmanuel Sanders this year.

'We Tigers said:

Wow! 7 projections and 6 of them have Wallace topping 1380 yards??? Basically, 6 people calling him WR1. Gotta look a little closer at this guy.

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Last year about this time, projecting 1200+ yards and double digit TDs for Wallace was certainly considered inflated. And I'm almost certain very few people expected close to 800 yards and 6 scores in his rookie campaign. Back then in most FF leagues he was either taken very late in rookie drafts or went entirely undrafted, becoming someone's waiver wire pickup. Point here is, he has out-performed expectations for a couple of years now, and I don't think the majority of people are going to keep underestimating him anymore.

Those expecting a regression might want to consider the schedule difference between last year and this year. Here are the new teams Pittsburgh plays in 2011. The two columns show their defensive rank for passing yards and total points given up:

Team Yards Points Sea 27 25 SF 24 16 Ari 23 30 StL 19 12 Hou 32 29 Ind 13 23 Jax 28 27 KC 17 11Average 23 22
Here are the teams that are replaced from 2010:

Team Yards Points Atl 22 5 NO 4 7 TB 7 9 Car 11 26 NYJ 6 6 Mia 8 4 Buf 3 28 Oak 2 20Average 8 13
As you can see, 2010 included much tougher pass and overall defenses compared to 2011. That alone should allow Wallace to at least equal his 2010 production. His 12 games with Ben would project to 105 - 68 - 1395 - 11 for 16 games. That makes the 1400 yard projections not seem so unreachable.

'Truman said:

'Go deep said:

Who needs Santonio Holmes? Wallace broke out in a big way in his 2nd season. He will never be a 90 catch guy, but is one of the fastest, most explosive WR's in the league. Will be a bit inconsistent from week to week, but will still make a solid WR2 in non-ppr's. 110 targets, 60 rec, 1100 yards, 8 TD's

Click to expand...

A WR2 or the number 2 WR in fantasy?Finished as WR6 in my non-PPR league last year - and that was as a year 2 guy with his QB out the first month of the season.He was a very raw talent coming into the league and I don't think he takes a step back in Year 3. 70 rec, 1450 yds, 13 TDs.

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I see many similarities between the expectations of Mike Wallace this offseason and DeSean Jackson last offseason. Last year - coming of off a 2009 campaign in which Jackson scored a TD every 6.8 times he caught the ball, fantasy owners were expecting a little too much. Likewise, Wallace's 6:1 ratio last year (60 rec. & 10 TDs) is unsustainable without a marked increase in targets. Which is actually feasible with Hines Ward another year older on the other side. In the end though, I agree that Emmanuel Sanders is probably the biggest beneficiary of Ward's advancing age. I love Wallace's game. He can turn 5 catches into 200 yds and 2 TD's on any given Sunday. But a projection of double digit TD's on a similar number of receptions is dreaming. Wallace's rec:TD ratio regresses closer to the 9:1 (league average) ratio this year.Projections: 72 receptions, 1,210 yds, 8 total TD's.

I admittedly don't watch the Steelers. Can anyone shed a little more light on how Wallace is used in Bruce Arians' offense? Is his ypc a product of his routes all being deep, or is he taking quick screens and slants right up the field for big gains?

He's been right at 20 yards per catch in his first two seasons, but if we expect a big jump in targets (a modest 72 and 98 in his first two seasons) that ypc could certainly go down.

Wallace had 12 games last season with 3 receptions or less. Granted, several of those receptions were deep balls that went for TDs. Still, it makes me a little nervous to spend an early pick on a guy that's so reliant on the deep ball.

It's also notable that the Steelers play a drastically easier schedule than last season. They'll still take some shots deep of course, but if they're protecting late leads and blowing teams out, Wallace may not get many opportunities late in games.

I may have the opportunity to draft this guy in a keeper league where I already own Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson, so I'm drooling a bit over being able to start all 3 of them this season.

Only issue with Wallace is that he's going to be more inconsistent than the average WR from game to game. I am worried about his lack of receptions if I am going to draft him as my WR1. Otherwise, he's a threat to score anytime that he gets the ball, and Roethlisberger does a great job of getting him the ball deep or on a medium crossing route. If PIT decides to use him more in the short passing game, the sky is the limit. But I see PIT doing more of the same and using Wallace for more deeper patterns and using Ward, Miller, and Sanders for shorter type passes.

70 rec, 1150 yards, 8 TD

Some thoughts

My conclusion is that Wallace's catch and TD% were higher than what his true career average will be and we can expect some serious regression this year. More targets with Hines Ward slowing down will help keep his totals from falling but for those who see 1,400 yards and 12+ TDs for next season are essentially calling him the next Moss. Possible, but a player being among the best ever is always an underdog to him having a slightly fluky season.

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projections along the lines of 125 targets, 70 receptions, 10 TDs.

It's interesting to note that the first half of the video is from Wallace's rookie season. There were quite a few more highlights showing Mike on short and intermediate routes as well as quick screens. The second half basically shows Wallace's deep TDs from 2010.

I'm struggling with the reasoning behind Wallace receiving only 98 targets in 2010. This could be a down year for him if he's used in a similar fashion. All those long completions will be difficult to repeat.

Reading through all the postings in the Mike Wallace Spotlight is making me wish that I was a dynasty owner. I think that the board's expectations for Mr. Wallace are way over mine. Perhaps, I am ignoring his play in the NFL, but I watched him in the SEC and he was only a good receiver. He also has played two seasons and has averaged 85 targets per year, while he missed no games and was performing very well. I guess that I do not see Hines Ward dropping off the planet this year and I may also be overhyping Emmanuel Sanders. I am really struggling here as I just do not see how he maintains his 20.0 ypc and I think that he will continue to be featured as a deep threat, but just not tageted as often as most here think.

Mike Wallace 16 gms 106 targets 63 catches 59.0% 1058 yards 16.8 ypc and 8 TDs with 60 yds rushing

'Grahamburn said:

I'm struggling with the reasoning behind Wallace receiving only 98 targets in 2010. This could be a down year for him if he's used in a similar fashion. All those long completions will be difficult to repeat.

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Part can be attributed to Ben missing the first four games. If you break up Wallace's season into halves, he had 22 catches on 39 targets in the first half and 38 catches on 59 targets in the second half. He was seeing more shorter targets which is reflected in his catch percentage increasing (from 56% to 64%). So, it isn't hard to imagine him seeing more like 120 targets this year.

MANCRUSH!

'Hoosier16 said:

'Grahamburn said:

I'm struggling with the reasoning behind Wallace receiving only 98 targets in 2010. This could be a down year for him if he's used in a similar fashion. All those long completions will be difficult to repeat.

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Part can be attributed to Ben missing the first four games. If you break up Wallace's season into halves, he had 22 catches on 39 targets in the first half and 38 catches on 59 targets in the second half. He was seeing more shorter targets which is reflected in his catch percentage increasing (from 56% to 64%). So, it isn't hard to imagine him seeing more like 120 targets this year.

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Great points. Thank you. After week 6 (No Big Ben the first 4 games and a bye in week 5) Wallace had 6 100+ yard games, and 8 of his 10 TDs during the final 10 weeks of the regular season. Impressive.

'barker132000 said:

MANCRUSH!

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The guy has the tools to run all the routes and be effective. I think his YPC avg comes down, but receptions, td's, and yards go up.89 rec, 1344 yds, 10tds. 10 attemps, 55 yards, 0 tds.

'Hoosier16 said:

Those expecting a regression might want to consider the schedule difference between last year and this year. Here are the new teams Pittsburgh plays in 2011. The two columns show their defensive rank for passing yards and total points given up:

Code:

  Team   Yards   Points  Sea  	27  	25   SF  	24  	16  Ari  	23  	30  StL  	19  	12  Hou  	32  	29  Ind  	13  	23  Jax  	28  	27   KC  	17  	11Average	23  	22

Here are the teams that are replaced from 2010:

Code:

  Team   Yards   Points  Atl  	22  	5   NO  	4   	7   TB  	7   	9  Car  	11  	26  NYJ  	6   	6  Mia  	8   	4  Buf  	3   	28  Oak  	2   	20Average	8   	13

As you can see, 2010 included much tougher pass and overall defenses compared to 2011. That alone should allow Wallace to at least equal his 2010 production. His 12 games with Ben would project to 105 - 68 - 1395 - 11 for 16 games. That makes the 1400 yard projections not seem so unreachable.

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Throw in 6 games with a long catch of 50+ yards, 2 more with 40+ yard TDs and 3 games with a long reception of 33-39 yards, he's the most explosive WR in the league, from a production standpoint. Also consider that while he had one huge game without Roth, he had his two worst games as well. Big Ben loves to heave it deep so I don't expect a big regression yet. He's a potential top 3 WR you can get a round later than the Andre-Calvin-Roddy trio.

'griff321 said:

'barker132000 said:

MANCRUSH!

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The guy has the tools to run all the routes and be effective. I think his YPC avg comes down, but receptions, td's, and yards go up.89 rec, 1344 yds, 10tds. 10 attemps, 55 yards, 0 tds.

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This would be WONDERFUL.

Guys getting all lathered up, feeding off eachother's chosen stats and hyping "their" guy in here.

If he takes the next step and becomes a more complete WR, then I say yes he could put up some of the astronomical numbers being posted in this thread. If he doesn't take the next step, he's a prime candidate to regress.

Of 10 TD's last year only one was inside the 20 yard line. He only had 10 red zone targets last year. 10 regular season games with 3 receptions or less. 28th overall targetted WR, 31st overall in receptions tied with Mario Manningham.

He pretty much maxed out his potential last year based on how much of the Pitt Offense he was a part of.

He's a total game breaker though, so he will have his big plays.

70 rec/1,225 yards/8 td's

-10 more receptions. His ypc will come down as he'll get more attention and they'll try to limit his big play ability. There won't be as many long TD's.

To those predicting not as many long TDS and saying he Maxed out those opportunities

I saw AT LEAST 6 times Ben underthrow Wallace for scores of 50+ yard TDS where he smoked his coverage. There were more than these 6 since I am not even a Steeler follower.

For this reason I see improvement as Ben was out for a while. If Ben is in sync with Wallace he could quite easily be the top WR in fantasy points.

'Multiple Scores said:

To those predicting not as many long TDS and saying he Maxed out those opportunities I saw AT LEAST 6 times Ben underthrow Wallace for scores of 50+ yard TDS where he smoked his coverage. There were more than these 6 since I am not even a Steeler follower. For this reason I see improvement as Ben was out for a while. If Ben is in sync with Wallace he could quite easily be the top WR in fantasy points.

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How many times did a defender fall down?How many times was the wrong defense called?How many times did a DE, LB, CB just miss Ben for a sack so that one of the long passes was never thrown to Wallace?Also, how many times did AJ, Roddy, Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Nicks, Jennings miss out on td's?

http://fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/Content/WR_Wallace_2011_1-9-11.htm

FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT 2011 - WR

By R.C. Fischer

The case for Mike Wallace as the Top WR for Fantasy 2011

*Ground rules, we only analyze Games 1-15 and exclude Game 16 of the season for obvious statistical reasons. We have fractional games played for some players as well, those injured before half time we consider as 0.5 games played as best we can track it.

This past Fantasy season the preseason WR projections didn't really work out as the preseason ratings outlets expected (big shock!). The old fashion thought process of taking last years scoring leaders, and/or highly marketed/visible WRs and making next years list...that doesn't really translate any more. Teams are evolving quickly, personnel is evolving quickly, coaches are evolving (and getting fired), schedule/opponent plays a huge part. The situations are fluid on injuries, trades, schedule, etc. If you had Austin Collie, Dwayne Bowe, Kenny Britt, Hakeem Nicks and Brandon Lloyd as your top-5 PPG WRs going into 2010, then congrats and this will research article will bore you (they were the top-5 on a PPG basis, some played less than a full season). For the rest, let's look back on preseason 2010 WRs as a prep and then dive into why Mike Wallace may be #1 for WRs in 2011.

A quick glimpse back at the Top 2010 preseason WRs:

Andre Johnson

Andre Johnson was everyone's slam dunk #1 WR for preseason 2010, a top 5-6 pick overall for many. He was an ESPN and Yahoo preseason #1. Andre Johnson was our #3 overall WR, which was essentially saying "we aren't taking him"...because no way he is around that late.

From the Fantasy Football Metrics 2010 Preseason Draft Guide: I can see Johnson's FF scoring dropping off slightly if Owen Daniels is able to come back from injury for season start (Johnson had 12.5 FF PPG/17.9 PPR in games with Daniels last year and 14.8 FF PPG/20.8 PPR while he was out). Johnson also has an away game with the Jets (Revis) looming on the schedule (scored 3.5 points vs. Revis last year). Johnson is as good as it gets at WR in the NFL, but I can see a small slip in FF scoring this season. I'm not in a position, as most are, of taking him in the first round at # 6 overall in the FF Draft. I could see 4-5 other WR's in his same scoring range.

We projected Johnson at 13.4 (traditional) PPG, he had 13.1 PPG...but missed some action due to injury. Five WR's averaged more PPG, and five more were right behind him. His preseason relative value was overinflated, and many wasted a 1st Round draft pick on him.

Randy Moss

Randy Moss was ESPN and Yahoo's #2 overall WR, wow....need anything else be said. I'm not doing a dance (per say) that we had him as the #5, but by having him at #5 we were one of the only 2010 preseason Moss detractors (of sorts). By having him not #1-3, none of our private clients (I can proudly say) had Randy Moss on their teams this season.

From the Fantasy Football Metrics 2010 Preseason Draft Guide: This is a tough call. Moss is 33 this season, his performance should start to slow a bit. He started to flake out again late last year. As Moss became disinterested, Brady seemed to be less interested in him as well -- his targets began to drop, no 100+ yard games in his last 7 games (a high 75 yards) of 2009. But he did keep snatching TD's (6 in last 7 games, including 3 in 1 game). Because of his size and TD prowess, you have to project him to score decently for FF. But an extremely tough schedule, and cold weather potential for 5-6 straight games -- and there is a lot to worry about with Moss. He will project to score OK, but for as high as he will go in the FF Draft -- I can’t invest in him with so much risk. There are other (seemingly) more secure options. If he falls in the FF Draft then I'm interested, but he's not falling in any FF Drafts.

We projected Moss at 11.8 (traditional PPG) , we tracked him at 4.8 PPG on the season.

Larry Fitzgerald

Larry Fitzgerald was ESPN's #3 WR, Yahoo's #8 and our #9. If you didn't see the drop-off without Warner coming, you were a fool.

From the Fantasy Football Metrics 2010 Preseason Draft Guide: Fitzgerald is arguably the best WR in the NFL. We have his FF scoring dropping on Matt Leinart (or whoever) as starting Cardinals QB. It's hard to project Fitzgerald higher in FF without Warner. Fitzgerald has scored 8.2 FF PPG (traditional scoring) in 11 games with Leinart over 4 seasons. Only 1 of those 11 games Fitzgerald has hit over 100 yards receiving. Leinart has targeted Fitzgerald approx at the same rate as Warner did, just less results. It's hard to turn down Fitzgerald, but for how high he will go in the FF Draft -- you have to pass on him for the Leinart risk, plus more secure top-of-draft options out there.

Noted in our 2010 draft guide -- without Warner pre-2010, Fitzgerald scored 8.2 FF PPG. What did he do this year without Warner.?..8.7 PPG.

Reggie Wayne

Reggie Wayne was the Yahoo #3, and the ESPN #4...and the Fantasy Football Metrics #13 (he would up #14 in PPG)

From the Fantasy Football Metrics 2010 Preseason Draft Guide: Reggie Wayne as the #2 overall WR, and a first round overall pick in many FF Drafts -- I do not get it. Wayne turns 32 this season, not dead by any means, but starting to hit potential slowdown/injury issue area. Wayne was awesome early in 2009, and then started to tail off as the season wore on -- and was very quiet in the playoffs. 15.1 traditional FF PPG/22.8 PPR in his first 9 games and dropping to 7.2 (trad) FF PPG/11.4 PPR. Why the drop? The Colts have an excellent stable of WR's selected in the NFL Draft the last few years. As the youngsters (Garcon, Collie) got more comfortable with the Offense, their scoring jumped and Wayne's dropped. Why would we not think that would continue to be the case? Especially as Anthony Gonzalez comes back from injury. I like Reggie Wayne but not as the # 2 overall WR. Not at all.

We projected Wayne at 10.2 (traditional) PPG, he finished at 10.0...again slowing down in the 2nd half.

-------------------------

This is supposed to be about Mike Wallace, right? I wanted to do a recap of 2010 to lay down some credentials about projecting the Top Fantasy WRs for 2011. Certainly we are not perfect, but we have a pretty good track record for WRs. A quick recap of the hot WRs in the preseason, or the great actual PPG WRs for 2010 (Alphabetically):

Boldin, BAL = #14 ESPN, #13 Yahoo, #47 FFM....#38 in PPG (I remember the heat we took for this preseason, I think we came out on the right side of this debate).

Bowe, KC = #20 ESPN, #16 Yahoo, #27 FFM....#2 in PPG

Britt, TEN = #38 ESPN, #37 Yahoo, #24 FFM....# 3 in PPG (only 8 games played)

Collie, IND = #48 ESPN, #47 Yahoo, #51 FFM....#1 in PPG (only 7.5 games played)

C.Johnson, DET = #7 ESPN, #4 Yahoo, #1 FFM....#7 in PPG (was pushing for #1 for middle part of season, faded off with Drew Stanton)

D.Jackson, PHI = #9 ESPN, #9 Yahoo, #2 FFM....#11 in PPG (top 5 coming down the stretch, then 2 bad last games being hampered pushed him out of Top-10)

We are likely to see Andre Johnson or Calvin Johnson as most media's #1 WR for Fantasy 2011. This past year, Andre Johnson was every media outlet's 2010 preseason #1 WR on the board (we had him at #3 behind Calvin Johnson and DeSean Jackson). Nothing against Andre or Calvin Johnson for 2011, but Mike Wallace may be getting ready to make a move to the top of the board (Preseason 2010 we had Wallace #16, ESPN had him #27, Yahoo at #29).

Wallace had a great Fantasy season in 2010. For total raw Fantasy points, in all 16 games, Wallace was the 6th best Fantasy WR (traditional FF scoring) for the 2010 season. In our PPG Metrics (we count only Games 1-15, and go by PPG avg), Wallace was the 11th best WR this season. It's a deeper look inside Mike Wallace's 2010 season that reveals this potential move to #1 in 2011. I would like to look at the case for Wallace as the #1 Fantasy WR on 3 main fronts:

Fantasy scoring metrics with and without Ben Roethlisberger

Fantasy scoring per target in 2010

Physical Metrics

1) Fantasy scoring metrics within 2010

Wallace finished 11th best in our PPG metrics among all WRs in 2010, but keep in mind how Wallace's 2010 season transpired. It began with his first 4 games, playing with Dennis Dixon, Charlie Batch and Byron Leftwich. In that "minus-Roethlisberger" span, Wallace averaged just 2.3 catches per game for 52.8 yards per game on 4.8 targets per game (which dragged his overall 2010 down). Everything changed when Roethlisberger came back, and then everything really changed after a few games working together again. Look at the differentials of Wallace's 2010 season in 3 phases:

Week 1-4 (Week 5 was a BYE), Wallace without Roethlisberger

Week 6-8, 3 games with Roethlisberger getting back "up to speed"

Week 9-16, the final 8 Fantasy games of 2010 (no Week-17/Game 16)

Snapshot Games Catches per game Yards per game TDs per game Targets per game % of targets caught Rushing yds per game Trad FF PPG PPR PPG

Week 1-4 4 2.3 52.8 0.5 4.8 47.4% 0.0 8.3 10.5

Week 6-8 3 2.7 62.0 0.7 4.7 57.1% 0.0 10.2 12.9

Week 9-16 8 5.0 94.4 0.6 7.6 65.6% 4.9 13.7 18.7

To put into perspective the differences within Wallace's 2010 season....as stated prior Wallace finished 11th best among WRs in PPG Week 1-16, but look at where he ranks when comparing WR scoring for the last 8 Fantasy games of 2010 (Week 9-16). The Top-5 Fantasy (traditional scoring) WR's in PPG over the last 8 games (Week 9-16) of the 2010 Fantasy Season were:

16.0 = Jennings, GB

16.0 = Bowe, KC

13.7 = Wallace, PIT

13.3 = A.Johnson, HOU

13.0 = D.Jackson, PHI

When Roethlisberger and Wallace got going, Wallace's production was at a Fantasy "elite" level for WRs.

2) Fantasy scoring per target in 2010

Wallace may have been the 11th best Fantasy PPG WR in 2010, but he was 20th among the Top-20 WRs in targets per game at 6.3. In fact, Wallace was just 43rd overall in targets per game among WRs in our tracking system. Jerricho Cotchery (6.6) had more targets per game than Wallace this season. On one hand that is scary underutilization, on the other hand it may reveal a massive upside as Wallace gets "more action" in 2011. Looking back at the chart above, Wallace's Week 9-16 targets moved up to a more proper 7.6 per game, still shy of the other elites that see 8-10 per game consistently. When Wallace's targets moved higher, so did his Fantasy production.

The amazing thing about Wallace's 2010 is despite the lower targeting overall, his Fantasy scoring stayed high. Showing a glimpse into what is possible with Wallace when you get him the ball. To show the power of Wallace's ability to make use of his targets, here are the leaders in Fantasy points (traditional) per target for Week 1-16 (how many FF points on average did the WR score for every time the QB threw the ball his way, whether caught or not):

1.96 points per passing target = D.Jackson, PHI (6.4 targets per game)

1.84 = Wallace, PIT (6.3 targets per game)

1.82 = Britt, TEN (7.3 targets per game)

1.53 = Manningham, NYG (5.7 targets per game)

1.50 = Floyd, SD (6.8 targets per game)

The Steelers barely involved their potential "fastest elite WR in football" in the running game (toward the final games of the season, Wallace was starting to pick up rushing carries...barely). Adjust Fantasy points per target to take out rushing stats, and the top 2010 WR producers per target (for just passing game only) would look like this:

1.82 = Britt, TEN

1.80 = Wallace, PIT

1.77 = D.Jackson, PHI

1.53 = Manningham, NYG

1.50 = Floyd, SD

3) Physical Metrics

My favorite part of the analysis, because it is what led me to rating Wallace high in the first place for 2010. I'm going to throw a bunch of comparisons at your first, then tie it all together. The following are Top-10 lists from the last decade of WR data from the NFL Combine (remember, a few prospects do not fully participate in the Combine dashes, typically those are players with something to hide/they are slower than most realize...in my opinion):. If you are fast, you want to show it off at the NFL combine.

Fastest 40-yard dash in the last decade for WRs:

4.21 = (2010) Trindon Holliday, LSU (Texans KR, blew out knee)

4.22 = (2010) Jacoby Ford, Clemson (nice season for Oakland in the 2nd half)

4.25 = (2009) Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland (we'll get to the trouble here that you already know)

4.26 = (2005) Jerome Mathis, Hampton (nice KR in NFL for awhile)

4.28 = (2009) Mike Wallace, Ole Miss

4.29 = (2009) Johnny Knox, Abilene Christian (Bears #1 WR?)

4.30 = (2009) Mike Thomas, Arizona (started to break out w/ Jacksonville this year)

4.30 = (2007) Yamon Figurs, K-State

4.31 = 4 with including (2001) Santana Moss, U.Miami (excellent pro career), Deon Butler (SEA), Tiquan Underwood (JAC)

Fastest 20-yard dash in the last decade for WRs:

2.44 = (2010) Jacoby Ford, Clemson

2.45 = (2009) Mike Wallace, Ole Miss

2.46 = (2010) Emmanuel Sanders, SMU (now on Steelers as well)

2.46 = (2007) Aundrae Allison, East Carolina

2.47 = (2010) Trindon Holiday, LSU

2.49 = (2007) Robert Meachem, Tennessee

2.49 = (2007) Yamon Figurs, K-State

2.49 = (2005) Jerome Mathis, Hampton

2.50 = 11 with, including Dexter McCluster, Golden Tate, Laurent Robinson, Jason Hill, Deon Butler, Mike Thomas, Darrius Heyward-Bey

Fastest 10-yard dash in the last decade for WRs:

1.43 = (2009) Mike Wallace, Ole Miss

1.43 = (2008) Will Franklin, Missouri

1.43 = (2007) Aundrae Allison, East Carolina

1.44 = (2009) Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland

1.44 = (2009) Mike Thomas, Arizona

1.46 = (2007) Steve Smith, USC (NY Giants)

1.46 = (2008) Eddie Royal, Va Tech

1.46 = (2009) Kenny McKinley, South Carolina

1.46 = (200&amp Laurent Robinson, Illinois State

1.46 = (2010) Jacoby Ford, Clemson

A lot of names, some known...others kinda sorta known. Some NFL productive, others not as productive. What do you see in common when you look through the names on this list?

For one, only a handful of players cover all the top speed scores. With Mike Wallace at the top of almost every list. Wallace, Jacoby Ford, and Darrius Heyward-Bey are the only ones who are on all lists. In a league of elite players, these 3 have beyond exceptional speed. A gift/attribute above all others.

Secondly, when you look at all the names...you may think "wow, look at all the kick returners"! Another evidence of the speed levels Wallace, Ford and Heyward-Bey possess. It's the "look at all these kick returners" thought process where I realized the differences in superior speed. When looking at the list, what would separate Wallace from the rest...given everyone on here is "fast"? Anything jump out?

When you think of kick returners, you would think small, quick, frail, not a "real" WR. The reason we think that of kick returner types is -- because it's true. One of the attributes of the "highly speedy" WR...small in height, lower weight and thus thin of frame (too small to be an effective NFL WR typically). Another evidence of what a "freak" Wallace is, is the fact that he has this elite speed, but he is not "small". Of any of the names listed above among the fastest speed times, the only ones who are 6'0 and taller and are also 200+ pounds are:

6'2, 214 = Robert Meachem

6'2, 210 = Darrius Heyward-Bey

6'2, 201 = Laurent Robinson

6'1, 215 = Will Franklin

6'1, 200 = Mike Wallace

Not only is Wallace statistically the fastest (10, 20, 40 yard dash) above 6'0 and 200+ pound WR, he can jump higher than any of them. The Vertical Jump metrics from the NFL Combine:

40.0" = Mike Wallace

39.0"= Laurent Robinson

38.5" = Darrius Heyward-Bey

37.5" = Robert Meachem

34.5" = Will Franklin

Wallace has produced good numbers quickly in the NFL, as of late borderline exceptional numbers. His amazing physical gifts are going to allow Wallace to produce things other WRs will simply not be able to.

A couple additional points of comparison on Mike Wallace:

Mike Wallace vs. DeSean Jackson

I have compared Wallace to DeSean Jackson all season, and only to say Wallace is the better version of Jackson. Wallace is a physical freak, a combination of speed, leaping ability and size that just isn't "normal" for the NFL. While people often fall all over themselves for DeSean Jackson, thinking Jackson is the ultimate speed WR...I would maintain that Wallace is.

WR Height Weight 40-yard dash 20-yard dash 10-yard dash Vert Leap

Wallace 6'1 200 4.28 2.45 1.43 40.0"

D.Jackson 5'10 170 4.35 2.52 1.53 35.0"

The difference between the two has been -- the way Wallace is (under) used. Jackson gets glory running the ball, returning punts...and even outside of that Jackson has been targeted in the passing game more for most of the past 2 years. But, not in the 2nd half of 2010 (Week 9-16)

WR (Week 9-16 in 2010 Targets per game Receptions per game Yards per game TD per game Traditional FF PPG PPR FF PPG

Wallace 7.6 5.0 94.4 0.6 13.7 18.7

D.Jackson 6.5 3.3 82.6 0.8 13.0 16.3

If you were willing to have DeSean Jackson rated high for 2010, and/or would for 2011...consider that Mike Wallace may be better in every way over Jackson, as well playing with a better passing QB.

Wallace vs. "tougher" Defenses/CB's

Another amazing data point on Wallace is -- he was immune to top defenses in 2010. Typically a top notch defense and/or "shut down" CB will drastically reduce an elite WR's Fantasy stats in a singular game. You don't have to bench Wallace when he faces the Jets, Raiders (Asomungha), Broncos (Bailey) or Ravens for example.

While Darrelle Revis totally shuts down elite WR's such as Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, etc, Wallace had :

7 catches for 102 yards against the Jets a few weeks ago

5 catches for 76 yards against the Ravens (Week-13, in the cold)

a Week-10 matchup vs. New England produced 8 catches for 136 yards and 2 TDs.

A total of five 100+ yards games the span of Week 9-16, against mostly good defenses/CBs.

Summary

Now imagine a 2011 season of Wallace with a full season integration with Ben Roethlisberger; and involved in more running plays!

Let's use those last 8 games of 2010 (Week 9-16) with an additional 10% bump in targets and 2010 DeSean Jackson type rushing totals (109 yards and 1 TD). A full season for Wallace based on that might look like:

93.5 catches (5.5 per game)

1,765 yards (103.8 per game)

11 receiving TDs

109 rushing yards

1 rushing TD

2 fumbles lost

15.0 Traditional FF PPG

20.5 PPR PPG

If Wallace gets to 15.0 traditional PPG in 2011, if he's not the #1 Fantasy scoring WR...he would still be great and very close to #1. This years WR leader in traditional PPG Fantasy scoring on our board (Week 1-16) was Austin Collie at 13.6 (Collie had 7.5 games played for our metrics, Dwayne Bowe at 13.3 was 2nd overall and played all of the first 15 games).

Wallace is one of the WR's that may transcend all of the normal patterns for a Fantasy/NFL WR. Possibly the fastest WR of all-time. A WR that is essentially too fast to be covered close to the line of scrimmage -- and thus forces a DB to have a buffer of space, so that when the Steelers just gun a quick pass to him on this soft coverage...he essentially becomes a very dangerous RB of sorts. Play him up tight and he is going to blow by you deep. Wallace is virtually "uncoverable" for a defense.

Wallace has the benefit of being paired with Ben Roethlisberger, one of the 3-5 best QBs in the NFL. In 2011, he could have Ben all season to work with...including the offseason. The pairing can only improve with more time.

If Wallace's targets just continued in 2011 at the level they did in Week 9-16 this 2010 season, Wallace would be a lock Top-5 Fantasy WR projected scorer in 2011. With a small increase in targets and a couple more handoffs, the increased touches could then lead Wallace could be the top scoring Fantasy WR of them all in 2011.

My (early) Top-5 WRs for Fantasy 2011:

Hakeem Nicks, NYG

Mike Wallace, PIT

Andre Johnson, HOU

Vincent Jackson, SD

Calvin Johnson, DET

Fantasy Football Writer R C FischerBy R.C. Fischer

Have questions you would like to see researched?, or would like to tell us we are full of crap?

Email us: contentcomment@fantasyfootballmetrics.com

I'm sure Wallace was the leader in smoking the still standing DB by a few yards and his QB underthrowing him. Even if Ben just hit him 4 of those times were talking about about 200 more yards and 4 more TDS. I believe in 60 minutes. If you don't then don't.

'scrumptrulescent said:

'Multiple Scores said:

To those predicting not as many long TDS and saying he Maxed out those opportunities I saw AT LEAST 6 times Ben underthrow Wallace for scores of 50+ yard TDS where he smoked his coverage. There were more than these 6 since I am not even a Steeler follower. For this reason I see improvement as Ben was out for a while. If Ben is in sync with Wallace he could quite easily be the top WR in fantasy points.

Click to expand...

How many times did a defender fall down?How many times was the wrong defense called?How many times did a DE, LB, CB just miss Ben for a sack so that one of the long passes was never thrown to Wallace?Also, how many times did AJ, Roddy, Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Nicks, Jennings miss out on td's?

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'mjr said:

'We Tigers said:

Wow! 7 projections and 6 of them have Wallace topping 1380 yards??? Basically, 6 people calling him WR1. Gotta look a little closer at this guy.

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Last year about this time, projecting 1200+ yards and double digit TDs for Wallace was certainly considered inflated. And I'm almost certain very few people expected close to 800 yards and 6 scores in his rookie campaign. Back then in most FF leagues he was either taken very late in rookie drafts or went entirely undrafted, becoming someone's waiver wire pickup. Point here is, he has out-performed expectations for a couple of years now, and I don't think the majority of people are going to keep underestimating him anymore.

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Excellent point/post.

'Multiple Scores said:

I'm sure Wallace was the leader in smoking the still standing DB by a few yards and his QB underthrowing him. Even if Ben just hit him 4 of those times were talking about about 200 more yards and 4 more TDS. I believe in 60 minutes. If you don't then don't.

'scrumptrulescent said:

'Multiple Scores said:

To those predicting not as many long TDS and saying he Maxed out those opportunities I saw AT LEAST 6 times Ben underthrow Wallace for scores of 50+ yard TDS where he smoked his coverage. There were more than these 6 since I am not even a Steeler follower. For this reason I see improvement as Ben was out for a while. If Ben is in sync with Wallace he could quite easily be the top WR in fantasy points.

Click to expand...

How many times did a defender fall down?How many times was the wrong defense called?How many times did a DE, LB, CB just miss Ben for a sack so that one of the long passes was never thrown to Wallace?Also, how many times did AJ, Roddy, Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Nicks, Jennings miss out on td's?

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Big ifs. Everyone has missed opportunities.

he is a great reciever and it would be pretty cool if he became a great news anchor when he was done with football just to keep it real jounralist award style

i think he will score about 9 or 10 tds especially if big ben plays all year and they air it out

My glass is half full.

'Sabertooth said:

'Multiple Scores said:

I'm sure Wallace was the leader in smoking the still standing DB by a few yards and his QB underthrowing him. Even if Ben just hit him 4 of those times were talking about about 200 more yards and 4 more TDS. I believe in 60 minutes. If you don't then don't.

'scrumptrulescent said:

'Multiple Scores said:

To those predicting not as many long TDS and saying he Maxed out those opportunities I saw AT LEAST 6 times Ben underthrow Wallace for scores of 50+ yard TDS where he smoked his coverage. There were more than these 6 since I am not even a Steeler follower. For this reason I see improvement as Ben was out for a while. If Ben is in sync with Wallace he could quite easily be the top WR in fantasy points.

Click to expand...

How many times did a defender fall down?How many times was the wrong defense called?How many times did a DE, LB, CB just miss Ben for a sack so that one of the long passes was never thrown to Wallace?Also, how many times did AJ, Roddy, Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Nicks, Jennings miss out on td's?

Click to expand...

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Big ifs. Everyone has missed opportunities.

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Sig has Wallace as a sell high. Agree or disagree?

Mike Wallace, WR, PIT - Wallace is being anointed as the next big thing, untouchable in dynasty leagues, and going in the top 10 in some early redrafts. I just don't see the complete game to become a true #1 deserving of that kind of status. He'll be in the top five wideouts sometimes, but be outside of the top 25 many others. Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown are quality young wide receivers in their own right, and Wallace will have to share with them as they too improve with development. Try to turn Wallace into Dez Bryant or Santonio Holmes and more in your dynasty league and let someone else take him in the top 25-30 picks in your redraft.

Are dynasty people having luck swapping Wallace for higher pedigree WR's and more?

I don't like that Wallace is yet to score a TD from inside of 15 yards so far in his career. Does Wallace often come off the field in the red zone or inside the 10?

It's possible we might see Greg Jennings type fluctuation in Wallace's TD production.

'pghrob said:

Sig has Wallace as a sell high. Agree or disagree?

Mike Wallace, WR, PIT - Wallace is being anointed as the next big thing, untouchable in dynasty leagues, and going in the top 10 in some early redrafts. I just don't see the complete game to become a true #1 deserving of that kind of status. He'll be in the top five wideouts sometimes, but be outside of the top 25 many others. Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown are quality young wide receivers in their own right, and Wallace will have to share with them as they too improve with development. Try to turn Wallace into Dez Bryant or Santonio Holmes and more in your dynasty league and let someone else take him in the top 25-30 picks in your redraft.

Are dynasty people having luck swapping Wallace for higher pedigree WR's and more?

Click to expand...

He is sort of a one-trick pony. I mean, look at what the Packers did to him in the Super Bowl, or even the playoffs last season. He was shut down on the deep stuff. He was made into a possession receiver and he averaged about 4 catches and 40 yards per game. The book may just be out on him. He better learn to do more than run fast or he's going to be another James Jett.

'Sabertooth said:

He is sort of a one-trick pony. I mean, look at what the Packers did to him in the Super Bowl, or even the playoffs last season. He was shut down on the deep stuff. He was made into a possession receiver and he averaged about 4 catches and 40 yards per game.

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Doesn't that suggest he was capable of being more than a one-trick pony? He went 9 for 89 and 1 TD against GB.

Yeah, I guess you could look at it that way.

I respect Bloom but disagree here. First I don't know why sanders/brown is a bad thing for Wallace, this is WR position were talking about And as Ward declines I really hope the steelers have descent options to avoid triple teams on Wallace.

As far as Dez I wouldn't but to each his own, dez is young and talented. Santonio? Really? I don't see production being close and Santonio with Ben never sniffed Wallace with Ben numbers. Wallace all day over Santonio for me.

'pghrob said:

Sig has Wallace as a sell high. Agree or disagree?

Mike Wallace, WR, PIT - Wallace is being anointed as the next big thing, untouchable in dynasty leagues, and going in the top 10 in some early redrafts. I just don't see the complete game to become a true #1 deserving of that kind of status. He'll be in the top five wideouts sometimes, but be outside of the top 25 many others. Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown are quality young wide receivers in their own right, and Wallace will have to share with them as they too improve with development. Try to turn Wallace into Dez Bryant or Santonio Holmes and more in your dynasty league and let someone else take him in the top 25-30 picks in your redraft.

Are dynasty people having luck swapping Wallace for higher pedigree WR's and more?

Click to expand...

Looks like Wallace is dreaming big at least.

The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports that Steelers WR Mike Wallace said Thursday he has lofty goals for 2011. Wallace said he is shooting for a 2,000-yard season. "If I catch 100 balls I can do it," Wallace said. In 2010, Wallace caught 60 passes for 1,257 yards with 10 touchdowns during the regular season, and he tacked on another 13 grabs for 115 yards and a touchdown over three postseason games.

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I like his moxy, but I don't think he gets there.90 receptions, 1620 yards, 13 TD's#1 WR

'Gawain said:

Looks like Wallace is dreaming big at least.

The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports that Steelers WR Mike Wallace said Thursday he has lofty goals for 2011. Wallace said he is shooting for a 2,000-yard season. "If I catch 100 balls I can do it," Wallace said. In 2010, Wallace caught 60 passes for 1,257 yards with 10 touchdowns during the regular season, and he tacked on another 13 grabs for 115 yards and a touchdown over three postseason games.

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I like his moxy, but I don't think he gets there.90 receptions, 1620 yards, 13 TD's

#1 WR

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That would be one monster of a season. It happened only 4 other times since 1970.

Amazing WR Seasons

Getting Plaxico wouldnt be helpful to MW in the RZ.

he is a speedy little jalapeno so i bet he could probably get 2000 yards and then some

Seriously, the only way Wallace sniffs 2000 yards is if he takes over the PR and KR duties. That being said, I like that he is thinking and acting like the #1 WR on the Steelers. I also hope that this news indicates a desire by the coaching staff to get him the ball more often.

The Steelers' schedule is way too easy for Wallace to catch that many balls. Silly.

'Grahamburn said:

The Steelers' schedule is way too easy for Wallace to catch that many balls. Silly.

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Interesting logic. How do you figure that sports fan?