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Anquan Boldin, WR, Baltimore Ravens (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Anquan Bolding, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Player Page Link: Anquan Boldin Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

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While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
I look for Q to have a better season overall, but I do not think the numbers will be insanely better, just maybe more consistent. It will also be year 2 in the offense and more importantly with Flacco.

Last year he was at 64/837/7 with 109 targets

I am predicting 80/1050/9 he would have been very close to these numbers last year in my opinion but his last 4 games were horrible. (7 catches for 67 yards 0 TDs)

 
Boldin had a solid first half of the 2010 season, but was relatively quiet after Bal's Week 8 bye. I wasn't expecting him to tear it up in Bal, but I thought he'd be a bit more productive. Unfortunately for Boldin owners, I'm not seeing any reason to expect a big rebound season in 2011; with Mason still there, Heap still there, Rice so involved in the passing game and now the addition of T Smith and T Doss.

Recs: 72

Rec Yds: 900

Rec TDs: 7

 
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closer to his AZ averages in year 2 with Flacco, taking more of Mason's numbers.

78 catches, 975 yards, 8 TD, ~ wr 13

 
I figured Boldin's numbers would take a hit doing from Arizona to Baltimore and they did. His receptions dropped significantly, even more so when you look at it on a per game basis. His TD's are around the same as he's still a redzone threat due to his size but as most figured, Baltimore is not a passing team first. I see a similar season for Anquan Boldin who did finish the season playing all 16 games, something he's had trouble doing for much of his career.

70 receptions for 910 yards and 7 Td's

 
So the Boldin spotlight didn't get much discussion, but I think he merits a revisit now with Heap gone to Arizona and no sign of Mason coming back. I'd be really surprised if the Ravens went into the season with Boldin and a bunch of rookies at WR (which is what they currently have), which probably means they're still looking at guys like Floyd, James Jones, etc. Maybe even Braylon if the market doesn't open up for him. Still, no news so far. With Mason and Heap out of town, that's over 100 receptions to Flacco's most trusted receivers gone.

Depending on what happens, could Q be a target machine this season? Neither Torrey Smith nor Doss are ready to be big contributors in year 1. If a marginal WR comes in to start across from him, I can see big numbers. Conversely, how valuable is that #2 WR spot in Baltimore for fantasy if it isn't Derrick Mason?

 
Thus far the free agent freny has really added to the prospects for Q Boldin to have an outstanding season this year.

The Ravens cut ties with D. Mason who in 2011 had 99 targets, 61 catcches for 802 yards and 7 TDs. The also cut Todd Heap and his 64 targets for 40 catches and 599 yards and 5 TDs. Additionally, they lost McGahee who although not featured much as a receicer had 99 rushing attempts in 2011. This could push Ray Rice's rushing opportunities upward and might reduce some of his targets.

A season ago, Boldin started well, but slowed in the second half of the season, yet most of the roster moves thus far signal more focus on him for this year. The big IF, is whether the 2nd year TEs and the rookie WRs are efficient enough to open some space. If they do, then I see Boldin's role growing significantly, particularly at the goal line.

Q Boldin 16 gms 135 targets 85 catches 1084 yards 12.8 ypc 9 TDs

 
Q is hard to project this year. Lasty year there was a strech of games where Flacco didn't even look in his direction. That scares me. When they passed to Boldin they won last year but Flacco was to much a bone head to realize this. He is now the go to receiver for Baltimore but Icant see them in too many shootouts or playing from behind which could lead to alot of average 6 for 75 yard type days.

Is this a guy you would rather have then Ocho cinco is the question i am struggling with right now

79 1100 yard 6 tds

 
Q is hard to project this year. Lasty year there was a strech of games where Flacco didn't even look in his direction. That scares me. When they passed to Boldin they won last year but Flacco was to much a bone head to realize this. He is now the go to receiver for Baltimore but Icant see them in too many shootouts or playing from behind which could lead to alot of average 6 for 75 yard type days.

Is this a guy you would rather have then Ocho cinco is the question i am struggling with right now

79 1100 yard 6 tds
6 rec for 75 yards....over the course of a season would project to 96 catches for 1200 yards. I think most people would be happy with that.Given that you're projecting lower season totals for Boldin....you must be expecting a lot of games worse than 6 rec for 75 yards.

 
any more thoughts on Q?

He has looked good this preseason and looks to be a lock for better numbers across the board with mason and heap gone. Evans will really help him I think. Anybody else see good things for this guy?

 
any more thoughts on Q? He has looked good this preseason and looks to be a lock for better numbers across the board with mason and heap gone. Evans will really help him I think. Anybody else see good things for this guy?
Earlier in the offseason, when I thought Mason and Heap would still be Ravens, I wasn't too high on Boldin. Lately, I've warmed up to him. He has looked good, in the little I've seen of him thus far and I think that having two possession receiver-type guys leave the team bodes well for Boldin in 2011.I'm not expecting a huge year, but something noticeably better than last season. Something around 1000 yards and 8 TDs.
 
Boldin over Ocho by a mile. Would be shocked if Ocho lasted greater than year in ne. I think they'd be better w/o him

Boldin projection 80 1100 8

 
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So far a pretty disappointing season for Q based on the unpredictable TD count (55/836/3). He's currently on pace for 68/1029/4. In non-ppr, he is 25th, which is a bit below his ADP (WR22, late 5th round). Just 3 more touchdowns and he'd be 17th.

I didn't land him in any leagues this year, but I was expecting about 75/1000/8. Anybody have any thoughts on his situation? Personally, I feel like he'll be a value play next year. People often overreact to TD production (see Braylon Edwards, Dwayne Bowe, Mike Williams) so I won't be surprised to see T.Smith get drafted before him. Plus, it turns out that he is the most highly targeted Raven in the redzone. Through 12 games, he had 15 red zone targets to Dickson's 10 and T.Smith's 8. I know he'll be turning 32 next year, but he was never a burner. Seems like a guy that you can get in the late 20's with a good chance to produce in the mid to late teens if/when the touchdown distribution normalizes. Not an exciting draft pick, but you don't have to hit a homerun on every draft pick. Sometimes a high percentage double is better than a low percentage swing for the fences.

Lloyd is another guy that I think is going to be a great value pick next year for those who load up on other positions in the early rounds due to strategy or value reasons.

 
So far a pretty disappointing season for Q based on the unpredictable TD count (55/836/3). He's currently on pace for 68/1029/4. In non-ppr, he is 25th, which is a bit below his ADP (WR22, late 5th round). Just 3 more touchdowns and he'd be 17th.I didn't land him in any leagues this year, but I was expecting about 75/1000/8. Anybody have any thoughts on his situation? Personally, I feel like he'll be a value play next year. People often overreact to TD production (see Braylon Edwards, Dwayne Bowe, Mike Williams) so I won't be surprised to see T.Smith get drafted before him. Plus, it turns out that he is the most highly targeted Raven in the redzone. Through 12 games, he had 15 red zone targets to Dickson's 10 and T.Smith's 8. I know he'll be turning 32 next year, but he was never a burner. Seems like a guy that you can get in the late 20's with a good chance to produce in the mid to late teens if/when the touchdown distribution normalizes. Not an exciting draft pick, but you don't have to hit a homerun on every draft pick. Sometimes a high percentage double is better than a low percentage swing for the fences.Lloyd is another guy that I think is going to be a great value pick next year for those who load up on other positions in the early rounds due to strategy or value reasons.
I have him in a dynasty PPR, and he did just about what I expected from him this year --- right around WR25. I'm not expecting him to improve upon this year, but mainly just be someone that is good depth and likely a WR3/flex/bye week type of guy. I could certainly see a 60-900-4 season next year.
 
No doubt, but as the most highly targeted red zone player, I think chances are just as good that you see numbers just like this year except with a few more TDs. So instead of 68/1029/4, you might see 68/1029/8. I really think it is a flip of the coin. I mean, I won't be surprised to see him finish off with 2 TD in the last 3 games. I just expect everyone else to expect another low TD output next year while that appears to be more of a fluke than a trend. He's not lacking for targets.

 
No doubt, but as the most highly targeted red zone player, I think chances are just as good that you see numbers just like this year except with a few more TDs. So instead of 68/1029/4, you might see 68/1029/8. I really think it is a flip of the coin. I mean, I won't be surprised to see him finish off with 2 TD in the last 3 games. I just expect everyone else to expect another low TD output next year while that appears to be more of a fluke than a trend. He's not lacking for targets.
His career TD to target ratio 1 TD for every 21 targets. That would have put him at 5 right now and about 6 for the full year. It's just as unrealistic to expect 8 for the year as it is to expect 4. Your expectation should be around 6, which means people have him valued about right. I wouldn't think that the extra 2 TDs are enough to put him in the undervalued category.
 
No doubt, but as the most highly targeted red zone player, I think chances are just as good that you see numbers just like this year except with a few more TDs. So instead of 68/1029/4, you might see 68/1029/8. I really think it is a flip of the coin. I mean, I won't be surprised to see him finish off with 2 TD in the last 3 games. I just expect everyone else to expect another low TD output next year while that appears to be more of a fluke than a trend. He's not lacking for targets.
His career TD to target ratio 1 TD for every 21 targets. That would have put him at 5 right now and about 6 for the full year. It's just as unrealistic to expect 8 for the year as it is to expect 4. Your expectation should be around 6, which means people have him valued about right. I wouldn't think that the extra 2 TDs are enough to put him in the undervalued category.
He previously played on a team where he was far and away the #2 red zone target, so of course his career TD/target ratio is low. He is the #1 target on Baltimore in the red zone and it just hasn't panned out this year. Given that he had 7 touchdowns on 64 receptions last year, I don't think 8 is unreasonable in 2012. Plus, I really think his ADP will drop from WR22 in favor of younger, higher upside guys and/or guys with more TDs this year.
 
No doubt, but as the most highly targeted red zone player, I think chances are just as good that you see numbers just like this year except with a few more TDs. So instead of 68/1029/4, you might see 68/1029/8. I really think it is a flip of the coin. I mean, I won't be surprised to see him finish off with 2 TD in the last 3 games. I just expect everyone else to expect another low TD output next year while that appears to be more of a fluke than a trend. He's not lacking for targets.
His career TD to target ratio 1 TD for every 21 targets. That would have put him at 5 right now and about 6 for the full year. It's just as unrealistic to expect 8 for the year as it is to expect 4. Your expectation should be around 6, which means people have him valued about right. I wouldn't think that the extra 2 TDs are enough to put him in the undervalued category.
He previously played on a team where he was far and away the #2 red zone target, so of course his career TD/target ratio is low. He is the #1 target on Baltimore in the red zone and it just hasn't panned out this year. Given that he had 7 touchdowns on 64 receptions last year, I don't think 8 is unreasonable in 2012. Plus, I really think his ADP will drop from WR22 in favor of younger, higher upside guys and/or guys with more TDs this year.
His TD/target ratio in Baltimore is the same as it was in Arizona - 1 in 21. During just the time that Warner was QB, from 2005-2009, his rate was 1 in 19. Warner (and AZ in general) threw the ball more in the red zone, so Boldin had a couple more TDs. So, unless Flacco becomes a better red zone QB than Warner, or Baltimore becomes a team that throws as much as those Arizona teams, I wouldn't expect an increase in his career rate.
 
His TD/target ratio in Baltimore is the same as it was in Arizona - 1 in 21. During just the time that Warner was QB, from 2005-2009, his rate was 1 in 19. Warner (and AZ in general) threw the ball more in the red zone, so Boldin had a couple more TDs. So, unless Flacco becomes a better red zone QB than Warner, or Baltimore becomes a team that throws as much as those Arizona teams, I wouldn't expect an increase in his career rate.
Indeed, his TD/target ratio was similar, but you aren't looking very deep here. Boldin is not DeSean Jackson. He's going to need redzone targets to get decent TD totals. In 2005, he had 171 targets, but only 16 of them were in the redzone.In 2004, he only played 10 games and saw only 7 red zone targets. He had 1 TD. In 2008, he played in 12 games and had 25 redzone targets. He had 11 TD. Excluding those two outliers, he has had between 13-19 redzone targets every year of his career, averaging 14.33 targets and 6.67 TDs total (redzone + non). This year he has had 15 RZ targets thru 13 games. He is receiving less targets per game than his career average (7.92 this year vs. 9.31 career) but his RZ targets are above par. This gives me reason to believe he could easily see an uptick in TD production next year without a larger role in the offseason. Simply put, this year has thus far been a statistical anomaly. If the numbers play out normally, he should be in for a better 2012 should they not make any free agent moves in the WR/TE department.It should also be noted that he is far off his career catch %. He catches 61% of passes thrown to him. This year he is at 53%.
 
It should also be noted that he is far off his career catch %. He catches 61% of passes thrown to him. This year he is at 53%.
This is because he is running deeper routes than he has at any point in his career. His yards per target is very similar to his numbers in recent years.
 
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It should also be noted that he is far off his career catch %. He catches 61% of passes thrown to him. This year he is at 53%.
This is because he is running deeper routes than he has at any point in his career. His yards per target is very similar to his numbers in recent years.
I doubt these are of relevance to Boldin's fantasy value, but here are some of his career numbers:Yards per target:2003: 8.352004: 5.992005: 8.202006: 7.912007: 8.622008: 8.242009: 8.062010: 7.682011: 8.12Percentage of targets caught:2003: 61.21%2004: 53.85%2005: 59.65%2006: 54.61%2007: 71.72%2008: 70.63%2009: 66.14%2010: 58.72%2011: 53.40%Average air yards (yards the average reception traveled past the line of scrimmage before being caught):2003: 7.982004: 8.142005: 8.432006: 8.422007: 6.772008: 4.982009: 7.732010: 9.272011: 11.40Average yards after catch:2003: 5.652004: 2.982005: 5.312006: 6.072007: 5.242008: 6.692009: 4.462010: 3.812011: 3.80
 
It should also be noted that he is far off his career catch %. He catches 61% of passes thrown to him. This year he is at 53%.
This is because he is running deeper routes than he has at any point in his career. His yards per target is very similar to his numbers in recent years.
I doubt these are of relevance to Boldin's fantasy value, but here are some of his career numbers:Yards per target:2003: 8.352004: 5.992005: 8.202006: 7.912007: 8.622008: 8.242009: 8.062010: 7.682011: 8.12Percentage of targets caught:2003: 61.21%2004: 53.85%2005: 59.65%2006: 54.61%2007: 71.72%2008: 70.63%2009: 66.14%2010: 58.72%2011: 53.40%Average air yards (yards the average reception traveled past the line of scrimmage before being caught):2003: 7.982004: 8.142005: 8.432006: 8.422007: 6.772008: 4.982009: 7.732010: 9.272011: 11.40Average yards after catch:2003: 5.652004: 2.982005: 5.312006: 6.072007: 5.242008: 6.692009: 4.462010: 3.812011: 3.80
Don't discount flaccos accuracy issues as the cause of boldins lack of production, especially early this year. Hes no kurt warner. I do think boldin finishes this year strong though, just a hunch.
 
It should also be noted that he is far off his career catch %. He catches 61% of passes thrown to him. This year he is at 53%.
This is because he is running deeper routes than he has at any point in his career. His yards per target is very similar to his numbers in recent years.
Yeah, I noticed the spike in ypr. It is a career high. But while Boldin's yard per target is consistent, Flacco's completion percentage has fallen and so has his ypa. So overall, it isn't evening out for Flacco like it has for Boldin's catch % vs. yards per target. Either way, I think Boldin will be a strong overperform candidate next year. I think he is a lock for WR20 barring injury/new personnel. Not exciting, but it isn't realistic to end up with three WR1s. It may happen on rare occasion, but consistently drafting WR3s that perform as WR2s is a feasible task.
 

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