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Greg Jennings, WR, Green Bay Packers (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

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Thread Topic: Greg Jennings, WR, Green Bay Packers

Player Page Link: Greg Jennings Player Page

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Receptions 80

Receiving Yards 1,200

Receiving TDs 10

As a Packer fan, I, of course, love Greg Jennings. I also have to recognize the fact that the only "fantasy uber stud" on the Packers is Mr. Rodgers. All things revolve around aRod, and if your going to drop a first round pick on a Packer, he is the only one worthy (unless you score 1.5pts or more for TE recpt, then feel free to draft JFin).

Having said that, Jennings will clearly be a top performer on your team, with consistent scoring. He may be one of the few "sure things" when it comes to ending up a top 10 WR. Great QB? Check. Plays in a passing oriented offense? Check. #1 WR on the team? Check. Proven NFL performer? Check. Good Speed? Check. Good Hands? Check. He will not likely be the best fantasy WR, but certainly someone that will come through consistently without worry, and certainly end up top 10 scoring WR at the worst, perhaps #4/5 at best.

Not a fan of him in the first round of a 12 team or smaller league, but would be happy with him in the second.

 
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Receptions 80

Receiving Yards 1,200

Receiving TDs 10
I'm agree with the receptions & TDs here if Finley is healthy all year. I can't quite get with the 15 yards per reception though, he's been over 16 the last 4 seasons & I expect that to improve Finley or not. I really feel like Rodgers & Jennings found their grove last seaon.80

1400

10

If Finley gets roughed up early as usual I feel the sky is the limit. I can see a ceiling of 90, 1500 & 13.

 
Jennings has been rock solid the last few years. While Driver's career seems to be winding down, and that is a positive for Jennings, the return of Finley could negatively impact his number of targets. I see this as a bit of a wash and expect Jennings to post numbers right around his three-year average.

Recs: 74

Rec Yds: 1200

TDs: 8

 
One of the most overrated WRs in the NFL from an overall talent perspective.

Jennings and his mediocre talent have benefitted from Rodgers' passing prowess. Because he's the best WR on the team he's put up some decent stats over the years...except of course when Finley, the real talent, was on the field last year where Jennings was nearly forgotten for a four game stretch.

69 Receptions

1075 Yards

7 TDs

I'll draft the same WR in round 8...thanks.

 
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One of the most overrated WRs in the NFL from an overall talent perspective. Jenning's and his mediocre talent have benefitted from Rodgers' passing prowess. Because he's the best WR on the team he's put up some decent stats over the years...except of course when Finley, the real talent, was on the field last year where Jennings was nearly forgotten for a four game stretch.69 Receptions1075 Yards7 TDsI'll draft the same WR in round 8...thanks.
:lol: LHUCKS is always good for a laugh.
 
One of the best WR's in the league playing with one of the best QB's in the league on one of the highest scoring offenses in the league. A high ceiling and high floor guy who should be one of the first 5-8 WR's off the board. With Driver all but done now, Jennings is clearly the #1 WR in GB, and should see at least as many targets as he has over the last few seasons(140, 119, 123). He has averaged 9 TD's over the last 4 years, and i dont see that changing much as the Rodgers and the Packers should throw for at least as many TD's as they have over the last several years. Even though he is one of the best deep threats in the league, Jennings isnt just a deep threat. 7 of his 12 TD's were scored from inside the redzone last season(including two from the 1 yard line). If you think Nelson, or any other WR is going to be a big threat to his targets, or has Rodgers trust as much as Jennings, rewatch the SB and notice the catches Jennings makes and the drops other WR's have. Finley will likely see his far share of targets, but he should also keep some coverage away from Jennings.

140 targets, 82 rec, (59%), 1350 yards, (16.5 ypc), 10 TD's

 
One of the most overrated WRs in the NFL from an overall talent perspective. Jenning's and his mediocre talent have benefitted from Rodgers' passing prowess. Because he's the best WR on the team he's put up some decent stats over the years...except of course when Finley, the real talent, was on the field last year where Jennings was nearly forgotten for a four game stretch.69 Receptions1075 Yards7 TDsI'll draft the same WR in round 8...thanks.
:lol: LHUCKS is always good for a laugh.
That's much better than the 40 500 3 I expected from him.
 
One of the most overrated WRs in the NFL from an overall talent perspective. Jenning's and his mediocre talent have benefitted from Rodgers' passing prowess. Because he's the best WR on the team he's put up some decent stats over the years...except of course when Finley, the real talent, was on the field last year where Jennings was nearly forgotten for a four game stretch.69 Receptions1075 Yards7 TDsI'll draft the same WR in round 8...thanks.
:lol: LHUCKS is always good for a laugh.
That's much better than the 40 500 3 I expected from him.
Yeah, i dont think his projection is crazy, but the comment about getting similar production in the 8th round is a bit :loco:
 
but the comment about getting similar production in the 8th round is a bit :loco:
Davone Bess
Thats crazy, even in a PPR. At least pick a guy whose upside would equal Jennings floor. Something about Bess and his career high 10.6 YPC and 5 TD's, and catching passes from Chad Henne on a run first team makes me think you might be wrong.By the way, Davone Bess caught for 22% of his career high 817 yards in the two games that Brandon Marshall missed. Thought it was worth mentioning since we noted Jennings totals in the 4 games Finley played last season.
 
'LHUCKS said:
One of the most overrated WRs in the NFL from an overall talent perspective. Jennings and his mediocre talent have benefitted from Rodgers' passing prowess. Because he's the best WR on the team he's put up some decent stats over the years...except of course when Finley, the real talent, was on the field last year where Jennings was nearly forgotten for a four game stretch.69 Receptions1075 Yards7 TDsI'll draft the same WR in round 8...thanks.
A, your first line is still as ridiculous as the first time you spewed it and were proven to be completely wrong about that statement.Jennings talent is far better than mediocre and well above average.Oh, and you won't get a WR even close to him in round 8 unless you get lucky. Once again, your analysis is off.The first response in this thread is pretty much dead on accurate.
 
'LHUCKS said:
One of the most overrated WRs in the NFL from an overall talent perspective. Jennings and his mediocre talent have benefitted from Rodgers' passing prowess. Because he's the best WR on the team he's put up some decent stats over the years...except of course when Finley, the real talent, was on the field last year where Jennings was nearly forgotten for a four game stretch.69 Receptions1075 Yards7 TDsI'll draft the same WR in round 8...thanks.
Sig Bet?I say he finishes top 10 in scoring for a wr, ppr leagueYou get worse than top 20 in scoring 11 - 19 is a push
 
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Looking at the TD breakdown from last year it's tough to imagine Jennings's total dropping much in 2011. After his 12 scores, James Jones had 5, and he's probably gone. We can expect Finley and Nelson to score more but they're as likely to snake them from Jones, Driver (4), or misc. TE/RB (7).

10 TDs is a lot to project in all but the most pimp of cases, like Calvin Johnson or pre-2010 Randy Moss. I mean, even Andre Johnson never quite makes that mark.

But in Jennings's case, why not? He scores from 80+ yards as easily as from the 1. It seems high as I type it but I can't talk myself down:

75/1200/10

 
The first response in this thread is pretty much dead on accurate.
Oh, you mean the response from a Packer fan...okay.
I mean the post from someone with knowledge of the player who made an educated and articulate response that did not revolve around opinions that have no factual basis (like calling him a mediocre talent).Care to refute anything he wrote with any sort of facts to back you up? I doubt it.
 
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Oh... and i thought i could find some decent projections for WR Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers....

Instead we get the same old crap from LHUCKS over and over...

I thought we had an extra thread for this... but what do i know...

 
WR2 for me, I see significant dropoff as long as Finley is healthy.

Top-6 WR if Finley gets hurt.

115 targets, 67 receptions, 1070 yards, 8 TDs (w/ Finley)

131 targets, 80 receptions, 1320 yards, 12 TDs (w/o Finley)

 
Oh... and i thought i could find some decent projections for WR Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers....Instead we get the same old crap from LHUCKS over and over...I thought we had an extra thread for this... but what do i know...
:goodposting: If they are going to let this ##### piss in even these threads I don't see a reason to keep coming back to this board.
 
Looking at the TD breakdown from last year it's tough to imagine Jennings's total dropping much in 2011. After his 12 scores, James Jones had 5, and he's probably gone. We can expect Finley and Nelson to score more but they're as likely to snake them from Jones, Driver (4), or misc. TE/RB (7).

10 TDs is a lot to project in all but the most pimp of cases, like Calvin Johnson or pre-2010 Randy Moss. I mean, even Andre Johnson never quite makes that mark.

But in Jennings's case, why not? He scores from 80+ yards as easily as from the 1. It seems high as I type it but I can't talk myself down:

75/1200/10
In three seasons with Rodgers he's only cracked 10 once and that was with Finley hurt and Driver putting up his worst year in a decade. With a healthy Finley, emerging Nelson, and steady Driver at WR3 I just don't see Jennings going for double digits again. And I certainly don't see him setting a career high in receptions/targets like some people have projected (albeit not by a large margin).
Do you think that has anything to do with his age? Assuming Drivers age it the reason for the drop in his production, i doubt we will see his numbers improving. Since i think Driver has been the biggest obstacle for Jennings over the last few years, it makes sense that Jennings numbers are trending upwards.

Also, Jennings is averaging 9 TD's over tha last 4 years, so i dont think its too crazy for people to think he gets 10 this season.

 
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Looking at the TD breakdown from last year it's tough to imagine Jennings's total dropping much in 2011. After his 12 scores, James Jones had 5, and he's probably gone. We can expect Finley and Nelson to score more but they're as likely to snake them from Jones, Driver (4), or misc. TE/RB (7).

10 TDs is a lot to project in all but the most pimp of cases, like Calvin Johnson or pre-2010 Randy Moss. I mean, even Andre Johnson never quite makes that mark.

But in Jennings's case, why not? He scores from 80+ yards as easily as from the 1. It seems high as I type it but I can't talk myself down:

75/1200/10
In three seasons with Rodgers he's only cracked 10 once and that was with Finley hurt and Driver putting up his worst year in a decade. With a healthy Finley, emerging Nelson, and steady Driver at WR3 I just don't see Jennings going for double digits again. And I certainly don't see him setting a career high in receptions/targets like some people have projected (albeit not by a large margin).
Do you think that has anything to do with his age? Assuming Drivers age it the reason for the drop in his production, i doubt we will see his numbers improving. Since i think Driver has been the biggest obstacle for Jennings over the last few years, it makes sense that Jennings numbers are trending upwards.

Also, Jennings is averaging 9 TD's over tha last 4 years, so i dont think its too crazy for people to think he gets 10 this season.
But Finley will be back, and in theory he'll be getting plenty of red zone looks. And Jordy Nelson *may* get some more looks as well. The void Driver leaves will be filled, and I don't think Jennings will match last year's numbers. He'll be good, but not top 5 IMO. Top 10-12 is what I'd expect from him.

 
Looking at the TD breakdown from last year it's tough to imagine Jennings's total dropping much in 2011. After his 12 scores, James Jones had 5, and he's probably gone. We can expect Finley and Nelson to score more but they're as likely to snake them from Jones, Driver (4), or misc. TE/RB (7).

10 TDs is a lot to project in all but the most pimp of cases, like Calvin Johnson or pre-2010 Randy Moss. I mean, even Andre Johnson never quite makes that mark.

But in Jennings's case, why not? He scores from 80+ yards as easily as from the 1. It seems high as I type it but I can't talk myself down:

75/1200/10
In three seasons with Rodgers he's only cracked 10 once and that was with Finley hurt and Driver putting up his worst year in a decade. With a healthy Finley, emerging Nelson, and steady Driver at WR3 I just don't see Jennings going for double digits again. And I certainly don't see him setting a career high in receptions/targets like some people have projected (albeit not by a large margin).
Do you think that has anything to do with his age? Assuming Drivers age it the reason for the drop in his production, i doubt we will see his numbers improving. Since i think Driver has been the biggest obstacle for Jennings over the last few years, it makes sense that Jennings numbers are trending upwards.

Also, Jennings is averaging 9 TD's over tha last 4 years, so i dont think its too crazy for people to think he gets 10 this season.
But Finley will be back, and in theory he'll be getting plenty of red zone looks. And Jordy Nelson *may* get some more looks as well. The void Driver leaves will be filled, and I don't think Jennings will match last year's numbers. He'll be good, but not top 5 IMO. Top 10-12 is what I'd expect from him.
Thats likely, but Rodgers will throw somewhere in the 32-40 TD range. Even if Finley gets 10 of those, that leaves plenty of TD's to go around. In 3 seasons, Jordy Nelson has never scored more than 2 TD's. Driver is all but finished, and is only a part time player at this point. James Jones is no longer a Packer and im not sure how much we can expect from Randall Cobb, who will likely be splitting 3rd WR snaps with Driver. Jennings may not finish as a top 5 WR, but i cant think of 5 other WR's who have a better chance of finishing there.

 
Looking at the TD breakdown from last year it's tough to imagine Jennings's total dropping much in 2011. After his 12 scores, James Jones had 5, and he's probably gone. We can expect Finley and Nelson to score more but they're as likely to snake them from Jones, Driver (4), or misc. TE/RB (7).

10 TDs is a lot to project in all but the most pimp of cases, like Calvin Johnson or pre-2010 Randy Moss. I mean, even Andre Johnson never quite makes that mark.

But in Jennings's case, why not? He scores from 80+ yards as easily as from the 1. It seems high as I type it but I can't talk myself down:

75/1200/10
In three seasons with Rodgers he's only cracked 10 once and that was with Finley hurt and Driver putting up his worst year in a decade. With a healthy Finley, emerging Nelson, and steady Driver at WR3 I just don't see Jennings going for double digits again. And I certainly don't see him setting a career high in receptions/targets like some people have projected (albeit not by a large margin).
Do you think that has anything to do with his age? Assuming Drivers age it the reason for the drop in his production, i doubt we will see his numbers improving. Since i think Driver has been the biggest obstacle for Jennings over the last few years, it makes sense that Jennings numbers are trending upwards.

Also, Jennings is averaging 9 TD's over tha last 4 years, so i dont think its too crazy for people to think he gets 10 this season.
Yes, I do. And his age is precisely why I think Jordy Nelson will take over as WR2 on that team and Driver will become a dependable WR3. Nelson looked quite capable in a limited sample size last year. So I don't think we can just give part of Driver's past production to Jennings. I suspect that's actually what happened last year, but plans will be put in place for 2011 to even things back out. Jennings will be back to 120 targets instead of 140. And there certainly isn't a need to increase them from last year.Now if you want to count Jennings' 12 TD season with a different QB in your 4 year average, go right ahead. But that's a poor use of statistics in my opinion. Why stretch a three year average with the same QB into a four year average with another QB in the mix unless you're biased in some way? You clearly want to believe Jennings is going to have a 10 TD season so you have shut down rational thought. Like Mike Vick, I've got no dog in this fight... so I'm just calling it the way I see it. His 12 TD season is much easier to explain than his 4 TD season. Clearly last year Rodgers was left w/o his starting TE and his WR2 saw a significant drop off. Easy to see how Jennings would be his go to guy. Next year Rodgers won't have a need to hone in on Jennings. If Jennings was this perennial red zone threat then why did he only catch 4 TD in 09? An unestablished Finley caught 5, James Jones caught 5, and Driver caught 6. Rodgers likes to spread it around. I expect a blend of 08 & 09 if everyone is healthy. Of course football is a game of probability. There is probably an equal chance of him breaking off 17 TD as it is he only lands 1. But if we could visualize the probability I'd say the bulk of the bell curve lies within 6-9 TD for Jennings in 2011. He will be the undisputed WR1 on the team and Rodgers will see no need to force it into double coverage when Nelson, Finley, or Driver will be facing single coverage.
So what exactly, was the point of that rant when you're squibbling over difference of 1 TD catch? At the end, you acknowledge that 6-9 is a good expected range. Guy above aimed for 1 more than the high end of you range.
 
Now if you want to count Jennings' 12 TD season with a different QB in your 4 year average, go right ahead. But that's a poor use of statistics in my opinion. Why stretch a three year average with the same QB into a four year average with another QB in the mix unless you're biased in some way? Clearly last year Rodgers was left w/o his starting TE and his WR2 saw a significant drop off. Easy to see how Jennings would be his go to guy. Next year Rodgers won't have a need to hone in on Jennings. If Jennings was this perennial red zone threat then why did he only catch 4 TD in 09?
Parsed a few things to get at some points here.First off...counting his 12 TD season is not a poor use of statistics given its the same exact system they still run, and the change in QB did not result in some lowering of passing stats for this team. Its not as if they went from a TD throwing QB, to a run first offense where a QB only throws 20 TDs a year. I don't think it shows bias to use that year.As for what Rodgers was left without...its also clear early in the year he was locking in on Finley and the offense was not producing as well. Finley getting hurt almost opened the offense up a bit. I don't think they go back to force feeding Finley and ignore what Jennings has done. And I don't think they just hone in on Jennings (and not as much as they seemed to do with Finley).2009 part of the problem was that Jennings was the deep threat...Rodgers was on his back too quickly to hit the deep balls. They have changed some things up there and got better in their protection.I think 10 is not a far off number for Jennings at all.8 is a near lock.
 
Rodgers will throw somewhere in the 32-40 TD range.
I'm really beginning to question your use of numbers. First, the unnecesary inclusion of Favre's season in Jennings' recent TD average and now this. In Rodgers three seasons as a starter he has thrown 28, 30, and 28 TD. Where you just got the assumption that he'll throw 32-40 next year is beyond me. You may have credible posts on other players, but your credibility on Green Bay players is in question. You have some serious bias in your numbers.
Seems your bias here in not including Favre's numbers from 2007. The system is the same...they still don't rely that much on the run game.Given the injuries last year, I don't think its a huge stretch either for someone to project Rodgers numbers ticking up some this year since he did miss a game with a Concussion and came out of another when it happened.
 
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It's not a math problem to be solved. Projecting TDs is always screwy. No one projected 12 for him last year and probably no one projected 4 the year before.

I mean I could say "8 to 11 TDs" and have a greater chance of being "right" but that's not really significant. I don't think his chances of scoring 10 this year are statistically much more likely than scoring 8. Or 11. But I'm going with 10.

Whatever, I have to go get my $1 Jimmy John's sandwich.

 
So what exactly, was the point of that rant when you're squibbling over difference of 1 TD catch? At the end, you acknowledge that 6-9 is a good expected range. Guy above aimed for 1 more than the high end of you range.
You clearly don't know the difference between sound analysis and a rant. But the problem I had was the shoddy logic he used to get to his 10 TD projection and the fact that quite a lot of people are projecting 10 TD for him when he is one season removed from a 4 TD year with the exact same QB in the exact same offense. I just think we need to get a little more realistic with these projections and maybe remember back a little farther than 9 months. And this may be asking a little much, but some logic and analysis might be nice in these spotlight threads rather than people just expecting players to build off of last year without any solid reasoning why that will happen.
sho nuff is doing fine work here already so I'm not going to delve too deeply here, but I don't see how your conclusions are any more sound that those predicting 10TDs. You're willfully ignoring the player's season with Favre just because it was a different QB, while Jenning's role in the offense remained largely unchanged when Rodgers got his turn. While I can see your point of view, I don't think there is anything wrong with considering Jenning's season with Favre when trying to make a determination here. You're focusing heavily on one season with low TD production in contrast to his 3 other seasons of 9, 12, and 12 TDs. Why so much weight on that one season? TDs are notoriously hard to predict and easily fluctuate year to year. So, yes, Jennings may only score 6 TDs or less for the coming season, but in predicting that you're expecting a roughly 33% drop off of his average as a full-time starter. That's your prerogative, but you shouldn't imply that other's work is unsound simply because they don't agree with your (rather drastic) prediction for reduced production.
 
So what exactly, was the point of that rant when you're squibbling over difference of 1 TD catch? At the end, you acknowledge that 6-9 is a good expected range. Guy above aimed for 1 more than the high end of you range.
You clearly don't know the difference between sound analysis and a rant. But the problem I had was the shoddy logic he used to get to his 10 TD projection and the fact that quite a lot of people are projecting 10 TD for him when he is one season removed from a 4 TD year with the exact same QB in the exact same offense. I just think we need to get a little more realistic with these projections and maybe remember back a little farther than 9 months. And this may be asking a little much, but some logic and analysis might be nice in these spotlight threads rather than people just expecting players to build off of last year without any solid reasoning why that will happen.
So you want to look at the QB factor for 2007, but ignore any factors that may have affected 2009?
 
So what exactly, was the point of that rant when you're squibbling over difference of 1 TD catch? At the end, you acknowledge that 6-9 is a good expected range. Guy above aimed for 1 more than the high end of you range.
You clearly don't know the difference between sound analysis and a rant. But the problem I had was the shoddy logic he used to get to his 10 TD projection and the fact that quite a lot of people are projecting 10 TD for him when he is one season removed from a 4 TD year with the exact same QB in the exact same offense. I just think we need to get a little more realistic with these projections and maybe remember back a little farther than 9 months. And this may be asking a little much, but some logic and analysis might be nice in these spotlight threads rather than people just expecting players to build off of last year without any solid reasoning why that will happen.
sho nuff is doing fine work here already so I'm not going to delve too deeply here, but I don't see how your conclusions are any more sound that those predicting 10TDs. You're willfully ignoring the player's season with Favre just because it was a different QB, while Jenning's role in the offense remained largely unchanged when Rodgers got his turn. While I can see your point of view, I don't think there is anything wrong with considering Jenning's season with Favre when trying to make a determination here. You're focusing heavily on one season with low TD production in contrast to his 3 other seasons of 9, 12, and 12 TDs. Why so much weight on that one season? TDs are notoriously hard to predict and easily fluctuate year to year. So, yes, Jennings may only score 6 TDs or less for the coming season, but in predicting that you're expecting a roughly 33% drop off of his average as a full-time starter. That's your prerogative, but you shouldn't imply that other's work is unsound simply because they don't agree with your (rather drastic) prediction for reduced production.
:goodposting:
 
I suppose now would be time to actually put in my own projection. I'm predicting a slight uptick in targets from his recent average

130 targets 80 Catches 1280 yards 8 TDs.

Emergence of Finley is offset by the decline of Driver and a general improvement in pass protection as the line has had another year to gel. Nelson will not be stealing targets from Jennings.

 
Now if you want to count Jennings' 12 TD season with a different QB in your 4 year average, go right ahead. But that's a poor use of statistics in my opinion. Why stretch a three year average with the same QB into a four year average with another QB in the mix unless you're biased in some way? Clearly last year Rodgers was left w/o his starting TE and his WR2 saw a significant drop off. Easy to see how Jennings would be his go to guy. Next year Rodgers won't have a need to hone in on Jennings. If Jennings was this perennial red zone threat then why did he only catch 4 TD in 09?
Parsed a few things to get at some points here.First off...counting his 12 TD season is not a poor use of statistics given its the same exact system they still run, and the change in QB did not result in some lowering of passing stats for this team. Its not as if they went from a TD throwing QB, to a run first offense where a QB only throws 20 TDs a year. I don't think it shows bias to use that year.As for what Rodgers was left without...its also clear early in the year he was locking in on Finley and the offense was not producing as well. Finley getting hurt almost opened the offense up a bit. I don't think they go back to force feeding Finley and ignore what Jennings has done. And I don't think they just hone in on Jennings (and not as much as they seemed to do with Finley).2009 part of the problem was that Jennings was the deep threat...Rodgers was on his back too quickly to hit the deep balls. They have changed some things up there and got better in their protection.I think 10 is not a far off number for Jennings at all.8 is a near lock.
Same offense or not, a different QB makes a big difference in the distribution of individual player statistics. Some QBs lock in on specific players while other QBs run through their options quickly. Three years of Jennings & Rodgers is a better indicator of future performance of Jennings & Rodgers than four years including another QB for one of those years. I guarantee that number would've been excluded had it not been beneficial for his cause.We can speculate all we want on if targeting Finley 26 times in four games was what hurt the offense (did it really? They went 3-1 and Rodgers threw 8 TD), but there should be some questions about how the ball will be distributed assuming Finley is healthy and Nelson is a better target than Driver was last year. Finley saw 26 targets in four games, in all 16 games the other TEs saw 52. There will be an increase in TE targets next year.In all honesty, I knew that protection was a reason why Jennings' production dropped in 09 but had forgotten. That being said, I still firmly believe he'll be doing good to get 120 targets next year if everyone stays healthy. TDs are pretty hard to predict, but I really think the chance of double digits will be slim. It could happen, but that doesn't mean it was probable. You could roll snake eyes with only one attempt, but I really doubt you'd have said it was a lock to happen beforehand. This is a guessing game, but methinks this thread is overly optimistic. Jennings' ADP of WR5 is a reflection of both optimism and short memories. He won't be on my team for that price.
But I don't believe there was much difference between Favre in 2007 and Rodgers in 2008 as far as how they treated Jennings.I think the offense was better later in the year than earlier. Was it because they were not focused on Finley...hard to say, but I think he was a crutch. And while Rodgers threw 8 TDs...Finley had 1 TD...Jennings had 3.I agree that there will be an increase in TE targets next year.
 
I like Greg Jennings quite a lot and Aaron Rodgers even more. I understand the logic that one of the reasons Rodgers is so awesome is that he has an uncanny ability to locate the open man and is very willing to spread it around, but to me the primary targets will be Jennings and Finley. I think that those two will likely see their same amount of targets and with Rodgers, you know most targets are catchable passes.

Another season similar to recent ones is what I forecast for Greg Jennings. I agree with above posters that expecting a WR to achieve double digit TDs is a high goal and reflects well on Jennings. I believe that my projection is a safe one and that if injuries occur again to either Finley or Jordy Nelson, then I would expect more than I have projected.

Greg Jennings 16 gms 120 targets 7.5 per game 76 catches 63.0% 1216 yards 16.0 ypa and 9 TDs

 
'MrTwo94 said:
If Jennings was this perennial red zone threat then why did he only catch 4 TD in 09? An unestablished Finley caught 5, James Jones caught 5, and Driver caught 6. Rodgers likes to spread it around. I expect a blend of 08 & 09 if everyone is healthy. Of course football is a game of probability. There is probably an equal chance of him breaking off 17 TD as it is he only lands 1. But if we could visualize the probability I'd say the bulk of the bell curve lies within 6-9 TD for Jennings in 2011. He will be the undisputed WR1 on the team and Rodgers will see no need to force it into double coverage when Nelson, Finley, or Driver will be facing single coverage.
Jennings isn't a perennial redzone threat. That said, did you watch the Pack in 2009? There is a very clear reason Jennings only had 4 TDs -- because the O-line was terrible, thus Jennings had minimal chances for his typical long passes. Additionally, McCarthy foolishly went to a vertical passing game early with a poor O-line, and took too long to adjust. IMO the big factor to question this season is whether or not McCarthy learned his lesson last year. His offense was far more effective and dangerous AFTER Finley got injured, because MM had Rodgers spread the ball more to the open guy (often Jennings) instead of foolishly forcing the ball to Finley repeatedly. Don't get me wrong, Finley is incredibly talented, but the offense bogged down when Rodgers kept forcing him the ball.Will MM get it this year? If not, look for more force-feeding to Finley. (would be a huge mistake IMO)
 
'MrTwo94 said:
'Go deep said:
Rodgers will throw somewhere in the 32-40 TD range.
I'm really beginning to question your use of numbers. First, the unnecesary inclusion of Favre's season in Jennings' recent TD average and now this. In Rodgers three seasons as a starter he has thrown 28, 30, and 28 TD. Where you just got the assumption that he'll throw 32-40 next year is beyond me. You may have credible posts on other players, but your credibility on Green Bay players is in question. You have some serious bias in your numbers.
What is wrong with including Jennings numbers with Favre? Especially since some people in this thread are specualating that a large part of Jennings success is due to Aaron Rodgers.

The 32-40 TD passes for Rodgers might be a bit high, but it is based on him being healthy for all 16 games. Last year he threw 28 in 14 games, which prorates to 32. A quick review of Rodgers career. In his first season as a starter he threw for 28 TD's. In his 2nd season he threw for 30, in his 3rd season, his numbers prorated over 16 games would be 32. See a trend here? Aaron Rodgers is just into his prime and i expect his floor is right around 32 TD passes(assuming health) with an upside of 40. Do you think he is not capable of 40 TD passes?

People like you said i lacked credibilty(not in so many words maybe) with my Jennings projections last year, or when i projected Driver for 48 receptions, or to draft James Starks in the 2nd round of their rookie drafts.

Anyway, back to Jennings. He may not have 10 TD receptions, i would actually bet against it. However, i think his floor is about 6 and his ceiling is about 14. Add those two together and divide by 2 and what do you get?

Im not here to argue though, ive made my point, now i am finished here. :bye:

 
'smackdaddies said:
The first response in this thread is pretty much dead on accurate.
Oh, you mean the response from a Packer fan...okay.
put up or shut up. Sig bet. Loser gets his sig written by the winner, has to keep it up from the end of the 2011 regular season through that years superbowl. No profanity, implied or otherwise.
Is this seriously going to be tolerated in a spotlight topic???
 
I was kind of amused by the fack that lhucks predicted Crabtree for 82/1125/7 "with upside" yet didn't include him in the 20+ WRs he considers better than Jennings.

But u got to say some crazy stuff to get to 40k posts I suppose.

 
Rodgers will throw somewhere in the 32-40 TD range.
I'm really beginning to question your use of numbers. First, the unnecesary inclusion of Favre's season in Jennings' recent TD average and now this. In Rodgers three seasons as a starter he has thrown 28, 30, and 28 TD. Where you just got the assumption that he'll throw 32-40 next year is beyond me. You may have credible posts on other players, but your credibility on Green Bay players is in question. You have some serious bias in your numbers.
Probably because Rodgers will be even better. The team will be even better. They could score at will the way NE did a few years back if they wanted too. Their D is a little too good though as they could put people away with 28 points a game. Give Jennings 80+ for 1300 and 14 of those TD's. I beleive he dropped 2 real easy TD's last year in the first few games.
 
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Rodgers will throw somewhere in the 32-40 TD range.
I'm really beginning to question your use of numbers. First, the unnecesary inclusion of Favre's season in Jennings' recent TD average and now this. In Rodgers three seasons as a starter he has thrown 28, 30, and 28 TD. Where you just got the assumption that he'll throw 32-40 next year is beyond me. You may have credible posts on other players, but your credibility on Green Bay players is in question. You have some serious bias in your numbers.
What is wrong with including Jennings numbers with Favre? Especially since some people in this thread are specualating that a large part of Jennings success is due to Aaron Rodgers.

The 32-40 TD passes for Rodgers might be a bit high, but it is based on him being healthy for all 16 games. Last year he threw 28 in 14 games, which prorates to 32. A quick review of Rodgers career. In his first season as a starter he threw for 28 TD's. In his 2nd season he threw for 30, in his 3rd season, his numbers prorated over 16 games would be 32. See a trend here? Aaron Rodgers is just into his prime and i expect his floor is right around 32 TD passes(assuming health) with an upside of 40. Do you think he is not capable of 40 TD passes?

People like you said i lacked credibilty(not in so many words maybe) with my Jennings projections last year, or when i projected Driver for 48 receptions, or to draft James Starks in the 2nd round of their rookie drafts.

Anyway, back to Jennings. He may not have 10 TD receptions, i would actually bet against it. However, i think his floor is about 6 and his ceiling is about 14. Add those two together and divide by 2 and what do you get?

Im not here to argue though, ive made my point, now i am finished here. :bye:
:goodposting:
 
Greg Jennings definately benefits from being on the same team as Aaron Rodgers, but that's the reality, they are on the same team. You can argue all day about what Jennings might produce without Rodgers but it's a waste of time, they are on the same team.

Jenning's strength is his big play potential. That fits perfectly with Rodgers big arm and ability to move in the pocket. My only concern for Jennings is at times he tends to disappear for short stretches then he'll bust out with a huge game. Last year cemented though that he's a guy you just don't sit on the bench regardless of the matchup.

75 catches for 1100 yards and 8 Td's

 
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All bow down to the greatness that is Jennings. I will not mention anything that could be thought of as negative about him. :mellow:
Seriously.It seems like anyone posting a realistic projection for Jennings is getting flamed. 2010 was Greg Jennings' ceiling. Draft accordingly.
 
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All bow down to the greatness that is Jennings. I will not mention anything that could be thought of as negative about him. :mellow:
Seriously.It seems like anyone posting a realistic projection for Jennings is getting flamed. 2010 was Greg Jennings' ceiling. Draft accordingly.
Care to back that claim up with any sort of analysis?Regardless, if it was, we're dealing with a player that's incredibly consistent. His 2010 season wasn't much above his career average as a starter: 69 Catches 1145 yards 9 TDs

 
All bow down to the greatness that is Jennings. I will not mention anything that could be thought of as negative about him. :mellow:
Seriously.It seems like anyone posting a realistic projection for Jennings is getting flamed. 2010 was Greg Jennings' ceiling. Draft accordingly.
I love how guys hit their ceiling this short into his career.Anyone claiming this is a sure thing is pretty foolish IMO.Also, who posted a realistic projection for him and got flamed for that projection?The two people who have been "flamed" have been hucks for his claims of how overrated Jennings is as an NFL player.And the other guy who didn't want to take into account Jennings' 2007 numbers because Favre was QB.
 
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All bow down to the greatness that is Jennings. I will not mention anything that could be thought of as negative about him. :mellow:
Seriously.It seems like anyone posting a realistic projection for Jennings is getting flamed. 2010 was Greg Jennings' ceiling. Draft accordingly.
Care to back that claim up with any sort of analysis?Regardless, if it was, we're dealing with a player that's incredibly consistent. His 2010 season wasn't much above his career average as a starter: 69 Catches 1145 yards 9 TDs
Not really, because the only guy who brought any analysis in here got picked apart for bringing up a few negative scenarios where Jennings may not be as successful this year.2010 was basically a career year for Jennings. He was 4 grabs and 27 yards off his career highs and matched his TD best with 12.

I agree that he's very consistent, and a great player to have in fantasy, but I don't think you'll get better production than you got in 2010, and it's likely that it'll be less. I just get a little miffed at some of the projections stating 80 receptions, 1,300 yards, and double digit TDs should be some kind of lock.

I love how guys hit their ceiling this short into his career.

Anyone claiming this is a sure thing is pretty foolish IMO.

Also, who posted a realistic projection for him and got flamed for that projection?

The two people who have been "flamed" have been hucks for his claims of how overrated Jennings is as an NFL player.

And the other guy who didn't want to take into account Jennings' 2007 numbers because Favre was QB.
I guess we could take Jennings' career highs from all 5 of his seasons and call that a projection for what he'll do in 2011? 80/1,292/12 :shrug: Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley return. James Starks emerged a bit in the playoffs. The Packers drafted another RB. There are several signs here that GB may be interested in throwing the ball less, to an increased number of talented targets.

Say what you want about LHUCKS, but his argument that Jennings hasn't been anything special when Finley is on the field holds water.

 
I guess we could take Jennings' career highs from all 5 of his seasons and call that a projection for what he'll do in 2011? 80/1,292/12 :shrug:

Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley return. James Starks emerged a bit in the playoffs. The Packers drafted another RB. There are several signs here that GB may be interested in throwing the ball less, to an increased number of talented targets.

Say what you want about LHUCKS, but his argument that Jennings hasn't been anything special when Finley is on the field holds water.
He bases his arguments on less than 5 games. Sorry, it holds little water.And the claim was then used about Jennings' TDs and how they will suffer with Finley...yet, which one of them scored more when Finley was healthy? It was Jennings.

I don't think just taking a career high is wise...but I would not call it a crazy projection either if you figure the Packers saw what he did last year, add in Rodgers improving and getting a full year in.

I don't think there are many signs they want to throw the ball less. Certainly not using a 3rd round pick to basically replace Brandon Jackson.

They took a WR and several TEs...that is not a sign they want to throw the ball less.

 

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