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Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders

Player Page Link: Darren McFadden Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
I like him. He has a high ceiling. He can easily put together 100+ yards and a TD any given week.

With that, I can not forecast a season total for him. Say it is injury, or a run stifling defense like the ones against PIT and MIA last year. It does not matter to what I am saying, he has high volatility and as an owner you need to have insurance plans when you have him.

Also, Bush is a lingering threat, especially when he shined the weeks McFadden was out (like week 5 against the Chargers and 17 against the Chiefs), and those short yardages (especially from around the goal line). He is still around. And now McFadden also has Taiwan Jones, the fastest RB this year, to compete with. Being fast may not have been a sole factor in another team, but the last time I checked Al Davis was still alive and kickin'.

So, would I want McFadden on my team? Absolutely!

Would I pay 1st round price for him? Absolutely!

Do I think he is the type of player that I can rely 16 weeks? Absolutely not!

If I draft him, do I put more importance on WR depth or RB depth? Definately RB depth over WR depth.

What kind of stats would I give him? I would rather give him fantasy stats: 15-25 point range for 10 games, 0-5 point range for 4 games, out for 2 games.

 
Really like McFadden this year, especially without Bush being there.

Two sets of projections depending upon if the Raiders can resign Bush or not.

With Bush...

235/1104/8 50/500/2

Without Bush...

280/1288/11 65/650/3

 
With the possible exception of Foster/Tate, there isnt a RB/handcuff i would rather have in 2011. Mcfadden averaged the 2nd most PPG in 2010, behind only Foster, and in games he didnt play, Bush put up RB1 numbers.

260 carries, 1255 yards, 8 TD's, 55 rec, 520 yards 2 TD's

 
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What emerged from this situation last year was the truth: Bush is a good but not great RB. There is very little about his game that is exceptional or even far above average. His role should be a pile-mover/sy back which likely means vulturing a few scores.

McFadden is an elite talent and the face that he is not considered truly elite means he is a rare-item: a RB than can be taken at the end of round 1 and greatly outperform his draft slot. I would not be in the least bit surprised to see him lead all RBs in all major cats (except rushing TDs) and be a top-3 pick next year.

I think he will average around 5 ypc and will enjoy at least 65% of the team's rushes. Also, since Oakland did not draft a QB I expect more production on the ground and a more dink and dunk passing attack. Campbell can't make deep throws and letting Gradkowski try and win games through the air is not a good strategy.

The raiders were second in the league in yards per game rushing in 2010, second to only KC.

65% of their total last year comes to 1621 yards. I'll give McFadden 1500 of those.

McFadden averaged 5.2 ypc last year, and I think he'll do that or better, and see about 275 carries

275 x 5.3 = 1458, so pretty close to what I thought

Receiving I expect him to do more than he did last year. I think his receptions and yards per go up as the Raiders learn how to better take advantage of his speed in the flat.

65 receptions x 12 = 780

TDs? Who knows. Maybe 7 rushing and another 4 receiving for a total of 11

So 275 carries for 1458 rushing and 7 Tds, and 65 receptions for 780 yards and 4 tds. Stud RB1 numbers and possible #1RB finish in 2011.

 
DMC is a baller and will be taken higher than most think in some drafts, while falling way too far in others. I can see him being taken as high as sixth overall this year. If he plays 16 games, he easily projects as a top 5 RB given his receiving skills and usage. I'll project him based on 16 games played:

270 carries, 1320 yards rushing

61 receptions, 750 yards receiving

15 total TDs

Bump the TDs especially, if Mike Bush is gone, but even with both there, the Raider offensive pie is potentially huge under coach Hue Jackson. #2 rushing offense, #6 scoring offense, #10 total offense in his first year with the Raiders last season even with Jason Campbell not gelling until the second half.

 
I worry that his numbers last year were the product of a weak schedule.
You shouldn't. Dude's a stud when healthy.My prediction is a little more conservative than those above, I don't think he sniffs above 5 ypc for the whole season, nor do I think he'll average 12 yards a catch.270*4.7 1269 yards 6 rushing TD 60*8.5 510 yards receiving 2 TDs.still great numbers, but I feel like they're a little more in line with what can be expected.
 
I worry that his numbers last year were the product of a weak schedule.
The only D's I consider tough on the 2011 schedule are NYJ and GB. Other than that NE, MIN, CHI, MIA, DET could also prove fiesty, but of this group, I think NE and DET improve from last season and the other three step back on defense. The rest consists of AFC west teams and other turds in a blanket. I don't know that this is an easy schedule per se, but I don't think it's that tough either. Sadly the Raiders finished in third place in the AFCW last season despite going 6-0 within the division, but that 3rd place schedule could pay dividends in 2011.
 
Darren McFadden finally had his “breakout” year in ’10. He’d be plagued by injuries his first two years and so many had written him off. Good for him. But even last year, he did get dinged up a bit and missed a couple of games.

I won’t attempt a prediction yet, since we need to see what free agent linemen the Raiders bring in this year. Will they make a splash and go after one of the premier FA OL’s? Right now, I don’t feel as good about the line as I need to be to rubber-stamp the declarations that he is a bona-fide stud RB. A line of Veldheer-Loper-Wiz II/Satele-Campbell-Barksdale isn’t doing it for me. There are a lot of question marks that need answering for any Oakland back to excel. If the line can get settled, there is no reason not to be optimistic about McFadden, given that the Raiders are a run first team.

A quick look at the schedule shows the Raiders have to deal with the Jets, Patriots, and the NFC Central. This is a much tougher schedule than last year. Also, it’ll be very difficult to repeat that 6-0 sweep over the AFC West. As a fan, I try to be optimistic, but focusing on just one player like McFadden who has only one non-injury season under his belt, and I find that there is reason to be concerned with the runaway first round pick projections in this thread.

 
I have watched almost every snap McFadden has had in his three year career. I am not a believer in him being an elite back. He is a situational back who does very well if he gets in space, but is not a between the tackles runner. He is easily hurt and I don't see him having more than 225 carries and another 50 touches in the passing game. And when he is hurt, he doesn't play. Some guys can tough it out and play like Bradshaw did last season, but McFadden is not one of those players.

I took his three year yard per carry average of 4.6 and assume 225 carries, which is almost what he had last season (223).

225 times 4.6 = 1035 yards. 6 rushing TDs is one less than last season.

50 receptions times his three year yard/reception average of 10.7 = 535 yards receiving. 3 receiving TDS.

225/1035/6 and 50/535/3

He could do worse if he has an injury that lingers or is more serious so there is definitely risk here.

 
I have watched almost every snap McFadden has had in his three year career. I am not a believer in him being an elite back. He is a situational back who does very well if he gets in space, but is not a between the tackles runner. He is easily hurt and I don't see him having more than 225 carries and another 50 touches in the passing game. And when he is hurt, he doesn't play. Some guys can tough it out and play like Bradshaw did last season, but McFadden is not one of those players.I took his three year yard per carry average of 4.6 and assume 225 carries, which is almost what he had last season (223).225 times 4.6 = 1035 yards. 6 rushing TDs is one less than last season.50 receptions times his three year yard/reception average of 10.7 = 535 yards receiving. 3 receiving TDS.225/1035/6 and 50/535/3He could do worse if he has an injury that lingers or is more serious so there is definitely risk here.
I don't know how you could have watched him last season and come to the conclusion that he's "not a between the tackles runner." What makes you say that? Injury only? You can't predict injury.
 
I had AP, Turner, and McFadden on a 2RB team last year and I sat Turner most of the time, and when I didn't I regretted it. McFadden when healthy is elite, no question.

 
I have watched almost every snap McFadden has had in his three year career. I am not a believer in him being an elite back. He is a situational back who does very well if he gets in space, but is not a between the tackles runner. He is easily hurt and I don't see him having more than 225 carries and another 50 touches in the passing game. And when he is hurt, he doesn't play. Some guys can tough it out and play like Bradshaw did last season, but McFadden is not one of those players.I took his three year yard per carry average of 4.6 and assume 225 carries, which is almost what he had last season (223).225 times 4.6 = 1035 yards. 6 rushing TDs is one less than last season.50 receptions times his three year yard/reception average of 10.7 = 535 yards receiving. 3 receiving TDS.225/1035/6 and 50/535/3He could do worse if he has an injury that lingers or is more serious so there is definitely risk here.
So much bad info here I don't really know were to start so I'll go from the beginning.You don't believe in him being an elite back and he's a situation RB. He was the #2 RB in PPR PPG last year. If you really did watch him play last year as you said you would have saw a runner running inside and with power quite often. You say's he easily hurt and does not play when he's hurt. Let's look at playing hurt. He gutted out most of his rookie year on two turf toes suffered in week 2. In college his foot was run over by a car and it was thought he'd miss a few games including what was thought to be a big game against USC. He ended up playing hurt and being a little limited but he played. In fact he never missed a game in college despite a heavy workload. He never missed a game in HS. Not until the dual turf toes his rookie year did he ever miss a game in his life and that's after trying to play on them most of the year. He missed some games his second year and 3 games last year with a pulled hamstring. So he's finally suffered some injuries. Does that make him injury prone? I certainly don't think so. This is the same guy who never missed a game in college. Some times players get a little unlucky with injuries. As far as I know he's never had a surgery for anything and if so it was very minor. He's physically sound, this is not like Gore who is patched together or MJD with bone on bone knee. There is really nothing to suggest he's going to miss any time next year anymore than any other RB in the NFLTaking his 3 year average to compile his projections makes no sense. Main reason I pointed out earlier was he played hurt a lot of those times the first few years and secondly before Hue Jackson arrived the offense around was so miserable it was difficult to anyone to consistently produce.You say he could do worse if he has an injury that lingers or is more serious so there is risk there. Really? Any chance you could point out a player, just one, in the entire history of the NFL whose production would not be worse he suffered a lingering or serious injury?
 
I worry that his numbers last year were the product of a weak schedule.
The only D's I consider tough on the 2011 schedule are NYJ and GB. Other than that NE, MIN, CHI, MIA, DET could also prove fiesty, but of this group, I think NE and DET improve from last season and the other three step back on defense. The rest consists of AFC west teams and other turds in a blanket. I don't know that this is an easy schedule per se, but I don't think it's that tough either. Sadly the Raiders finished in third place in the AFCW last season despite going 6-0 within the division, but that 3rd place schedule could pay dividends in 2011.
Chicago was 2nd in the NFL in rush defense per game last year, allowing 3.7 YPC.GB was 18th in the NFL in rush defense per game last year, allowing 4.7 YPC.Miami was 7th in the NFL in rush defense per game last year, allowing 3.6 YPC. I think of these 3 teams, Miami has the best front 7 for 2011.
 
'benson_will_lead_the_way said:
'LawFitz said:
I worry that his numbers last year were the product of a weak schedule.
The only D's I consider tough on the 2011 schedule are NYJ and GB. Other than that NE, MIN, CHI, MIA, DET could also prove fiesty, but of this group, I think NE and DET improve from last season and the other three step back on defense. The rest consists of AFC west teams and other turds in a blanket. I don't know that this is an easy schedule per se, but I don't think it's that tough either. Sadly the Raiders finished in third place in the AFCW last season despite going 6-0 within the division, but that 3rd place schedule could pay dividends in 2011.
Chicago was 2nd in the NFL in rush defense per game last year, allowing 3.7 YPC.GB was 18th in the NFL in rush defense per game last year, allowing 4.7 YPC.Miami was 7th in the NFL in rush defense per game last year, allowing 3.6 YPC. I think of these 3 teams, Miami has the best front 7 for 2011.
Not to mention that the Raiders have six 10 AM games next year. Cable (who's long gone now) did a good job last year practicing early to get the team ready and it helped. But they have struggled with those early starts in the past. Tough schedule all the way around.
 
So this thread has made me wonder, what is the common consensus on McFadden's talent? I personally think hes elite from watching what he did last year, but, it seems most dont have the same line of thinking.

 
So this thread has made me wonder, what is the common consensus on McFadden's talent? I personally think hes elite from watching what he did last year, but, it seems most dont have the same line of thinking.
There are two schools of thought. Based on the threads from last year, it seemed the consensus was that he was finally living up to the hype he was given when he entered the league (with the caveat that he has not proven that he can play an entire season). There are still a few hard core dissenters, notably EBF, who never liked him to begin with and went to say near the end of last season that McFadden still had not shown to be "an above average NFL starting RB." I am of the opinion that last year he arrived, although I must note that I own him in two leagues where I drafted him in 2008 and held thru some times where the best trade offer I could get was a 2nd round rookie pick (so my opinion is not entirely unbiased).

Interestingly, Evan Silva, of Rotoworld, is more enthusiastic about McFadden than some of his strongest supporters here (myself included) and has McFadden as #5 RB in his RB redraft rankings:

The Running Backs

1. Jamaal Charles - I'll take his situation-talent combo over any back's in the league.

2. Arian Foster - Another great situation and talent; he's neck and neck with Charles.

3. Chris Johnson - He'll play in a better offense than Peterson behind a superior line.

4. Adrian Peterson - Workload a growing concern but too much ability to rank lower.

5. Darren McFadden - No. 2 RB in points/game last year; could bump AP from top 4.

6. LeSean McCoy - More explosive than Ray Rice; 2,000 all-purpose yards potential.

7. Ray Rice - Line should be better, but Ravens will bring in veteran RB to poach work.

8. Rashard Mendenhall - Was No. 7 last year and has a true breakout season in him.

9. Jonathan Stewart - DeAngelo isn't coming back; good enough to overcome 8 in box.

10. Frank Gore - Always a safe bet to miss time but the clear focal point of his offense.
Rotoworld Pancake Blocks
 
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I think he's actually third behind ap and cj. Thus, value in the first.

I have been bullish on him since he came into the league and about the end of 09 I finally gave up on him. Kept him in dynasty but stopped targetting him in redraft for 10. I stopped being willing to accept the excuses (injury, qb, coach) and concluded I was wrong and that his skills in college couldn't translate.

IMO last season is the rising sun of his day in the NFL. I simply could not understand how the most productive and downright unstoppable back I have ever seen in the sec by far (including names like Shaun alexander, Jamal Lewis, rudi Johnson, Travis Henry, Arian foster, caddlilac williams, Ronnie brown, Mark Ingram, etc) could not tear this league apart. And I think that is exactly what this guy is about to do.

He was the entire Arkansas offense for three seasons and every team in the sec knew it and he continued to make them look silly week after week. I can't really overstate how impressive that was to me.

 
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I have watched almost every snap McFadden has had in his three year career. I am not a believer in him being an elite back. He is a situational back who does very well if he gets in space, but is not a between the tackles runner. He is easily hurt and I don't see him having more than 225 carries and another 50 touches in the passing game. And when he is hurt, he doesn't play. Some guys can tough it out and play like Bradshaw did last season, but McFadden is not one of those players.I took his three year yard per carry average of 4.6 and assume 225 carries, which is almost what he had last season (223).225 times 4.6 = 1035 yards. 6 rushing TDs is one less than last season.50 receptions times his three year yard/reception average of 10.7 = 535 yards receiving. 3 receiving TDS.225/1035/6 and 50/535/3He could do worse if he has an injury that lingers or is more serious so there is definitely risk here.
So much bad info here I don't really know were to start so I'll go from the beginning.You don't believe in him being an elite back and he's a situation RB. He was the #2 RB in PPR PPG last year. If you really did watch him play last year as you said you would have saw a runner running inside and with power quite often. You say's he easily hurt and does not play when he's hurt. Let's look at playing hurt. He gutted out most of his rookie year on two turf toes suffered in week 2. In college his foot was run over by a car and it was thought he'd miss a few games including what was thought to be a big game against USC. He ended up playing hurt and being a little limited but he played. In fact he never missed a game in college despite a heavy workload. He never missed a game in HS. Not until the dual turf toes his rookie year did he ever miss a game in his life and that's after trying to play on them most of the year. He missed some games his second year and 3 games last year with a pulled hamstring. So he's finally suffered some injuries. Does that make him injury prone? I certainly don't think so. This is the same guy who never missed a game in college. Some times players get a little unlucky with injuries. As far as I know he's never had a surgery for anything and if so it was very minor. He's physically sound, this is not like Gore who is patched together or MJD with bone on bone knee. There is really nothing to suggest he's going to miss any time next year anymore than any other RB in the NFLTaking his 3 year average to compile his projections makes no sense. Main reason I pointed out earlier was he played hurt a lot of those times the first few years and secondly before Hue Jackson arrived the offense around was so miserable it was difficult to anyone to consistently produce.You say he could do worse if he has an injury that lingers or is more serious so there is risk there. Really? Any chance you could point out a player, just one, in the entire history of the NFL whose production would not be worse he suffered a lingering or serious injury?
I don't see him consistently running inside and moving the chains. That's all. You disagree? Draft him with a top 10 pick. I would pass. We'll see who was right.Injuries? Yes. He has them in spades. He doesn't play injured. It is completely appropriate to take his three year average to compile his likely ypc. You say "but he has been hurt." I say: yes, and he will be again.
 
I have watched almost every snap McFadden has had in his three year career. I am not a believer in him being an elite back. He is a situational back who does very well if he gets in space, but is not a between the tackles runner. He is easily hurt and I don't see him having more than 225 carries and another 50 touches in the passing game. And when he is hurt, he doesn't play. Some guys can tough it out and play like Bradshaw did last season, but McFadden is not one of those players.

I took his three year yard per carry average of 4.6 and assume 225 carries, which is almost what he had last season (223).

225 times 4.6 = 1035 yards. 6 rushing TDs is one less than last season.

50 receptions times his three year yard/reception average of 10.7 = 535 yards receiving. 3 receiving TDS.

225/1035/6 and 50/535/3

He could do worse if he has an injury that lingers or is more serious so there is definitely risk here.
So much bad info here I don't really know were to start so I'll go from the beginning.You don't believe in him being an elite back and he's a situation RB. He was the #2 RB in PPR PPG last year. If you really did watch him play last year as you said you would have saw a runner running inside and with power quite often.

You say's he easily hurt and does not play when he's hurt. Let's look at playing hurt. He gutted out most of his rookie year on two turf toes suffered in week 2. In college his foot was run over by a car and it was thought he'd miss a few games including what was thought to be a big game against USC. He ended up playing hurt and being a little limited but he played. In fact he never missed a game in college despite a heavy workload. He never missed a game in HS. Not until the dual turf toes his rookie year did he ever miss a game in his life and that's after trying to play on them most of the year. He missed some games his second year and 3 games last year with a pulled hamstring. So he's finally suffered some injuries. Does that make him injury prone? I certainly don't think so. This is the same guy who never missed a game in college. Some times players get a little unlucky with injuries. As far as I know he's never had a surgery for anything and if so it was very minor. He's physically sound, this is not like Gore who is patched together or MJD with bone on bone knee. There is really nothing to suggest he's going to miss any time next year anymore than any other RB in the NFL

Taking his 3 year average to compile his projections makes no sense. Main reason I pointed out earlier was he played hurt a lot of those times the first few years and secondly before Hue Jackson arrived the offense around was so miserable it was difficult to anyone to consistently produce.

You say he could do worse if he has an injury that lingers or is more serious so there is risk there. Really? Any chance you could point out a player, just one, in the entire history of the NFL whose production would not be worse he suffered a lingering or serious injury?
I don't see him consistently running inside and moving the chains. That's all. You disagree? Draft him with a top 10 pick. I would pass. We'll see who was right.Injuries? Yes. He has them in spades. He doesn't play injured. It is completely appropriate to take his three year average to compile his likely ypc. You say "but he has been hurt." I say: yes, and he will be again.
Agreed, his career 4.6 YPC is good enough to be drafted in the top 10.

 
So this thread has made me wonder, what is the common consensus on McFadden's talent? I personally think hes elite from watching what he did last year, but, it seems most dont have the same line of thinking.
The common consensus isnt important. McFadden is and always has been one of the most talented RBs in the NFL. When Oakland drafted him I said he likely wont be the most dependable fantasy player but that he'll have his share of big games. So far, he's only scratched the surface of his potential. He was the Raider's offense last year. When he was hurt they looked no better than when they had Russell at QB. Give McFadden some help keeping drives alive and he is elite.
 
I think he's actually third behind ap and cj. Thus, value in the first. I have been bullish on him since he came into the league and about the end of 09 I finally gave up on him. Kept him in dynasty but stopped targetting him in redraft for 10. I stopped being willing to accept the excuses (injury, qb, coach) and concluded I was wrong and that his skills in college couldn't translate. IMO last season is the rising sun of his day in the NFL. I simply could not understand how the most productive and downright unstoppable back I have ever seen in the sec by far (including names like Shaun alexander, Jamal Lewis, rudi Johnson, Travis Henry, Arian foster, caddlilac williams, Ronnie brown, Mark Ingram, etc) could not tear this league apart. And I think that is exactly what this guy is about to do. He was the entire Arkansas offense for three seasons and every team in the sec knew it and he continued to make them look silly week after week. I can't really overstate how impressive that was to me.
:goodposting: This guy knows stuff...
 
So this thread has made me wonder, what is the common consensus on McFadden's talent? I personally think hes elite from watching what he did last year, but, it seems most dont have the same line of thinking.
The common consensus isnt important. McFadden is and always has been one of the most talented RBs in the NFL. When Oakland drafted him I said he likely wont be the most dependable fantasy player but that he'll have his share of big games. So far, he's only scratched the surface of his potential. He was the Raider's offense last year. When he was hurt they looked no better than when they had Russell at QB. Give McFadden some help keeping drives alive and he is elite.
I agree that the common consensus isn't important, I was just wondering what everyone else thought. I have him ranked 4 in my dynasty rankings and think he has the second highest ceiling in the league(Adrian Peterson). Theres no doubt in my mind that he is elite, but, I've been wrong before and usually the opinion of the shark pool is pretty solid.
 
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'wiscstlatlmia said:
I think he's actually third behind ap and cj. Thus, value in the first. I have been bullish on him since he came into the league and about the end of 09 I finally gave up on him. Kept him in dynasty but stopped targetting him in redraft for 10. I stopped being willing to accept the excuses (injury, qb, coach) and concluded I was wrong and that his skills in college couldn't translate. IMO last season is the rising sun of his day in the NFL. I simply could not understand how the most productive and downright unstoppable back I have ever seen in the sec by far (including names like Shaun alexander, Jamal Lewis, rudi Johnson, Travis Henry, Arian foster, caddlilac williams, Ronnie brown, Mark Ingram, etc) could not tear this league apart. And I think that is exactly what this guy is about to do. He was the entire Arkansas offense for three seasons and every team in the sec knew it and he continued to make them look silly week after week. I can't really overstate how impressive that was to me.
:goodposting: This guy knows stuff...
Not disagreeing with you that DMC is a talent, but another RB from Arkansas was also taken in the first round that year. I think you have to discount DMC's performance in college a little bit just because his backfield mate was able to achieve similar successes.
 
'wiscstlatlmia said:
I think he's actually third behind ap and cj. Thus, value in the first. I have been bullish on him since he came into the league and about the end of 09 I finally gave up on him. Kept him in dynasty but stopped targetting him in redraft for 10. I stopped being willing to accept the excuses (injury, qb, coach) and concluded I was wrong and that his skills in college couldn't translate. IMO last season is the rising sun of his day in the NFL. I simply could not understand how the most productive and downright unstoppable back I have ever seen in the sec by far (including names like Shaun alexander, Jamal Lewis, rudi Johnson, Travis Henry, Arian foster, caddlilac williams, Ronnie brown, Mark Ingram, etc) could not tear this league apart. And I think that is exactly what this guy is about to do. He was the entire Arkansas offense for three seasons and every team in the sec knew it and he continued to make them look silly week after week. I can't really overstate how impressive that was to me.
:goodposting: This guy knows stuff...
Not disagreeing with you that DMC is a talent, but another RB from Arkansas was also taken in the first round that year. I think you have to discount DMC's performance in college a little bit just because his backfield mate was able to achieve similar successes.
Why? Both Felix Jones and Peyton Hillis have turned in good performances at the NFL level and shown that they have NFL-caliber talent. Hell, no one would laugh at a fantasy RB stable that featured McFadden, Hillis, and Felix Jones.
 
I worry that his numbers last year were the product of a weak schedule.
The only D's I consider tough on the 2011 schedule are NYJ and GB. Other than that NE, MIN, CHI, MIA, DET could also prove fiesty, but of this group, I think NE and DET improve from last season and the other three step back on defense. The rest consists of AFC west teams and other turds in a blanket. I don't know that this is an easy schedule per se, but I don't think it's that tough either. Sadly the Raiders finished in third place in the AFCW last season despite going 6-0 within the division, but that 3rd place schedule could pay dividends in 2011.
Chicago was 2nd in the NFL in rush defense per game last year, allowing 3.7 YPC.GB was 18th in the NFL in rush defense per game last year, allowing 4.7 YPC.Miami was 7th in the NFL in rush defense per game last year, allowing 3.6 YPC. I think of these 3 teams, Miami has the best front 7 for 2011.
GB also allowed only 6 rushing TDs on the year.They do give up yards between the 20s, but stiffen up big time when their backs are against the wall. (seeing how they handle Jenkins and the other line spots will be a factor in this as well). But also have to remember how beat up that D was last year (losing Jenkins for some time, Neal, Barnett and the revolving door they had on the DL and at the OLB spot opposite of Matthews because of the injuries)Dolphins also were tough against the run allowing only 8 TDs.
 
'wiscstlatlmia said:
I think he's actually third behind ap and cj. Thus, value in the first. I have been bullish on him since he came into the league and about the end of 09 I finally gave up on him. Kept him in dynasty but stopped targetting him in redraft for 10. I stopped being willing to accept the excuses (injury, qb, coach) and concluded I was wrong and that his skills in college couldn't translate. IMO last season is the rising sun of his day in the NFL. I simply could not understand how the most productive and downright unstoppable back I have ever seen in the sec by far (including names like Shaun alexander, Jamal Lewis, rudi Johnson, Travis Henry, Arian foster, caddlilac williams, Ronnie brown, Mark Ingram, etc) could not tear this league apart. And I think that is exactly what this guy is about to do. He was the entire Arkansas offense for three seasons and every team in the sec knew it and he continued to make them look silly week after week. I can't really overstate how impressive that was to me.
:goodposting: This guy knows stuff...
Not disagreeing with you that DMC is a talent, but another RB from Arkansas was also taken in the first round that year. I think you have to discount DMC's performance in college a little bit just because his backfield mate was able to achieve similar successes.
Felix looked like an above average back, nothing more. McFadden looked special, and their respective numbers support my opinion here. Felix did a great job but wasn't special then and isn't special now.
 
As an Arkansas Razorback fan, it is awesome to see three former Hog RBs among the first dozen spotlight threads. Wooooo Pig!

Darren McFadden is a amazing athlete that has a gear that most NFL RBs only dream about. It is interesting to me that the chicken leg discussion has died down considerably over the off-season since he played so well last year. When he is on, there are few better. However if you are considering drafting DMac, you must weigh the injuries and down time. Look at his career stats:

08 - 13 gms 113 rushes 499 yds 4.4 ypc 39 targets 29 catches 74.4% 285 yds 9.8 ypc and 4 TDs

09 - 12 gms 104 rushes 356 yds 3.4 ypc 36 targets 21 catches 58.3% 245 yds 11.7 ypc and 1 TD

10 - 13 gms 223 rushes 1157 yds 5.2 ypc 61 targets 47 catches 77.0% 507 yds 10.8 ypc and 10 TDs

To add to the above numbers, I also looked at his per game rushes. In 08, he had only one game where he had 15 or more carries. In 09, again he had only one game with over 15 carries. Last season, he had nine of his thirteen played with over 15 carries and in those games, four were over 20. Last season, his production rewarded those that drafted him, at least on a per game basis. He still missed three games.

There are two things that stand out to me after reviewing those stats. He has an excellent catch percentage and his yards per reception are exceptional for an RB. I do not see that role being reduced at all going forward. He did much better, both on yards per carry and scoring TDs when he was used as a feature back. I think that this will continue to be true as well.

The only reservation is that he typically does not shy away from contact and with his slight frame, he sustains injury when this happens. It would be ideal if he could adopt a more protective style and run out of bounds more often. I do not watch many of his games as Oakland is not frequently featured, but I know that he is capable of running inside. He is just much better when he has space as you can tell from his ypr.

I think that he is an awesome player to own, but agree that you really do no need to grab his back-up as a safety net for when he is out of the game.

I think that he will have a similar year in 2011 as to what he had last year and it has upside, due to his previous missed games and the potential of the overall Raider offense improving.

With DMac, I do not think that he will play 16 games, but all my projections are for 16 games.

D. McFadden 16 gms 245 carries 1225 yds 5.0 ypc 70 targets 53 catches 530 yards 10.0 ypc and 10 total TDs

 
Turf toes and pulled hamsrings dont mean McFadden is too thin for inside running. Just because his stats hint he's great in the open (not that it was ever a questionable part of his game) doesnt mean he shouldnt run inside. If a RB doesnt run inside well, that's less opportunities for him to run. The situation and offense usually dictate how often a RB runs inside or outside. Some will bounce outside more often and may get a higher YPC because of more long runs, but isnt necessarily making the choice the coaches want him to. Getting first downs isnt about YPC. The abilities of the RBs may influence the play calling but there isnt a coach in the NFL who doesnt desire the ability for his team to run inside.

That said, DMF is at least a better than average inside runner if not a very good one IMO. This is a good thing for his fantasy potential because it can mean more opportunities. In McFadden's case it hasnt really led to a lot of opportunities but the potential is still there. We are talking about a Raiders team who has been the worst in the league on third down in the time McFadden has been around. We are talking about a team who has good (but not great) power running back in Michael Bush.

As far as his receiving numbers going forward, that is actually a slight concern now with Jones in town. Now we have a team with a power back who's at least as good as McFadden inside, and also a 3rd down back who could be as dangerous as McFadden is in the open. Neither means DMF has any less potential, but each could lead to less opportunities.

It amazes me that any fantasy site ever had Michael Bush ranked higher than DMF at the beginning of any season (yes, I owned DMF in every redraft league I played last year). Its amazing that people still say that he cant run inside. Its amazing that the same people who use the chicken leg argument on McFadden are the same people picking Chris Johnson with their high first round pick. Its amazing that people still use the "injury prone" label while ranking fantasy players. Its amazing how many people draft purely on what happened a season ago. Its amazing that people continue to use fabricated numbers to formulate a player's fantasy draft value. It amazes me how a person says something about a player just because somebody else said it first. Every year I'm truely amazed by this stuff. Yes I'm a Raider fan. That doesnt mean I like every Raider player. I didnt like the Russell pick and hated him more every season but I was never in three years disappointed about taking McFadden.

 
He's always had the talent, and obviously the burning question is does he stay injury free and get even better, or do injuries hamper him/he regresses towards the old him. I'm an owner that likes to swing for the fences, so he highly intrigues me. Now fwiw if you're in the league that does online drafting, and at ESPN, I'd try to draft right now because they have him at 21. Just sayin'. Run DMC has the complete package. He also, IMO, has the look of an extreme boom or bust. It will depend on the person. He'll probably get drafted in the area where you make your decision "Do I draft Vick, Rodgers, Andre/Calvin, or DMC/Turner" or something like that. I think if I had a tail end of the 1st pick, I wouldn't have a problem drafting DMC and then a Nicks type on the wrap around. One more thing- there is something that happens all the time in sports, especially for a young player. DMC may be injury prone so far, and I do not like the awkward way he gets tackled sometimes, but at only 23 it's possible he can turn into an iron man much like AP changed his injury prone perception. Different players, but I'm just saying, it happens (I mean glass man Grant Hill has been really healthy for the past couple of seasons even)

15 games played (optimism). 260 carries. 4.6 ypc. 1196 rush yards. 45 receptions, 460 rec. yards. 9 total tds.

 
I think he's actually third behind ap and cj. Thus, value in the first. I have been bullish on him since he came into the league and about the end of 09 I finally gave up on him. Kept him in dynasty but stopped targetting him in redraft for 10. I stopped being willing to accept the excuses (injury, qb, coach) and concluded I was wrong and that his skills in college couldn't translate. IMO last season is the rising sun of his day in the NFL. I simply could not understand how the most productive and downright unstoppable back I have ever seen in the sec by far (including names like Shaun alexander, Jamal Lewis, rudi Johnson, Travis Henry, Arian foster, caddlilac williams, Ronnie brown, Mark Ingram, etc) could not tear this league apart. And I think that is exactly what this guy is about to do. He was the entire Arkansas offense for three seasons and every team in the sec knew it and he continued to make them look silly week after week. I can't really overstate how impressive that was to me.
Like you I was high on him from the beginning. In fact, I drafted him at 1.01 over 'safer' guys like Mendenhall and Stewart. I had a hard time believing he wouldn't put it all together eventually.However, I finally traded him this offseason. Not an easy thing to do but I needed a top WR and lacked consistency from him. I may regret it since he's only going to be 24 this year, but I won't miss worrying about injuries or his up-and-down scoring.
 
Is anyone worried that without Cable who provided a) OL mentality b) more structure and discipline than the raiders have had in years that DMC will end up with a much worse line and more chaotic team that hurts his performance?

I totally agree his PPG upside is huge and he is probably worth a late 1st but it still hard to trust the black hole for anything in fantasy...

 
'Ian F said:
Is anyone worried that without Cable who provided a) OL mentality b) more structure and discipline than the raiders have had in years that DMC will end up with a much worse line and more chaotic team that hurts his performance?I totally agree his PPG upside is huge and he is probably worth a late 1st but it still hard to trust the black hole for anything in fantasy...
I'm not worried about it. Jackson was already a part of the coaching regime. I actually see things improving as Al Saunders is going to be the new offensive coordinator. If they can use McFadden like Marshall Faulk, I will be very happy.
 
'Ian F said:
Is anyone worried that without Cable who provided a) OL mentality b) more structure and discipline than the raiders have had in years that DMC will end up with a much worse line and more chaotic team that hurts his performance?I totally agree his PPG upside is huge and he is probably worth a late 1st but it still hard to trust the black hole for anything in fantasy...
I'm not worried about it. Jackson was already a part of the coaching regime. I actually see things improving as Al Saunders is going to be the new offensive coordinator. If they can use McFadden like Marshall Faulk, I will be very happy.
:goodposting: i think people forget how good al saunders is to rbs. marshall, priest, larry johnson to name a few. i think they will be using mcfadden in space a lot as well creating mismatches.
 
Here's what one article had to say about McFadden.

Run DMC crushed it 2010 with double digit TDs and over 1,600 total yards, but was it aberration or can he repeat his breakout season? The first red flag with McFadden is the fact that he has missed 10 games over his first three seasons with various amounts of injuries. Most notably is his turf toe injuries that has creeped up in multiple seasons. The second red flag for DMC is the fact that he scored 101 of his fantasy points in ONLY three games and the other 107 points in the OTHER ten games he played in. The lack of consistent production probably cost most of his owners to lose out on his week 14 outburst against the Jags (38 points). He is an injury waiting to happen and despite the fact that is has the talent to be a dominant player, his first round grade is too rich for a guy who has only produced once in his first three seasons.
http://fantasyfanplay.com/features/one-hit-wonders/
 
If you're that risk averse you will never win.
I would love to see the track record in redraft or dynasty leagues of the guy who wrote the article. Seems like he is down on every player who unexpectly had a good season last year. I realize the odds are that most one hit wonders don't repeat - but I also saw most of DMCs games last year and as far as I am concerned he is for real. Yes, he missed a few games, but the 13 games he started he finished (per FFToday stats) as the #2 RB in fantasy points scored per game, with only Foster having a better average.

This author also seems to think he is an expert at predicting injuries. It reminds me of Matt Schaub's critics who said that he was fragile and made of glass, but have been completely silent on that issue since he started all 16 games in both the 2009 and 2010 seasons.

 
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I think a lot of people don't really watch a lot of these players play and go off of boxscore or stats at the end of the year. I am not going to give some speech about how I watch tape but I try to watch as many games as I can. McFadden had an injury riddled first year and then in his second year, they ran every play up the middle until he got hurt. It was inevitable as at least 3 or 4 guys got their hands on him every single play. They might as well have drafted Stacey Mack if they were going to be using McFadden that way. I traded him away in frustration when Cable was retained as I thought it would be status quo. I remember reading going into last season about Hue Jackson asking the players how they could be more effective in the offense.

Talking with Jackson leading up to last weekend’s broadcast against the Chiefs, I asked him about RB Darren McFadden and his increase in production this season. McFadden had one 100-yard rushing game his first two seasons, and he’s had four 100-yard games through the Raiders’ first eight games this season.

During the offseason, Jackson asked McFadden what he could do to help the running back be the player he wanted to become. McFadden voiced that in his first two seasons, he was used primarily on zone running plays. His best success at Arkansas, however, came when he was used on power plays up the middle and sweeps on the edge. Jackson recognized this, and told McFadden then that he would give him that chance.

Jackson knows what happens when a player tells a coach what they need to succeed. When a coach listens, players feels compelled and empowered to go out and make it happen.

In his two-plus seasons in the NFL, I’ve never seen McFadden finish off runs the way he did against the Chiefs. He was a beast, and had so much power running behind his pads. Jackson has given McFadden the runs designed to do what he said he needed, and the recipe to go out and get 1,000 yards. Now, McFadden feels like he has to make it work. He told Jackson what he needed, it was given to him, and now he’s got to take care of it.
My link

So people need to stop looking at McFadden's first couple of years because it is not even close to the same situation. I look at a coordinator like Saunders and I think he can take McFadden to another level. He will get the most out of him as a receiver and in this day and age of ppr, you can't ask for much more.

As far as the injury thing is concerned, I really wish people would stop trying to predict it, especially when it is guys getting picked on for turf toe injuries. I look at MJD as a guy that is pretty injury proof and he got hurt at the most inopportune of times and he is just one of very very many running backs to get hurt.

 
DMC - is maybe the most talented runner past the line of scrimmage in the NFL. He just has a body and style that makes way for injuries. He is 6'2 215 lbs and runs upright and thus aborbs alot of hits. Yes both Eric Dickerson and Eddie george both ran upright - becasue of this both didn't last as long as they should have. But in only his 2nd year as a pure starter feature guy I think if he stays healthy there's not 5 backs I would rather own

he plays 16 games without major injury

1,450 yds ru 65 rec 700 rec yards 13 total TD's

 
'The Moz said:
DMC - is maybe the most talented runner past the line of scrimmage in the NFL. He just has a body and style that makes way for injuries. He is 6'2 215 lbs and runs upright and thus aborbs alot of hits. Yes both Eric Dickerson and Eddie george both ran upright - becasue of this both didn't last as long as they should have. But in only his 2nd year as a pure starter feature guy I think if he stays healthy there's not 5 backs I would rather own

he plays 16 games without major injury

1,450 yds ru 65 rec 700 rec yards 13 total TD's
At 358 in PPR, I would sure hope not.
 
This is exactly how I see it. Consistency matters.

'The Dynasty said:
Here's what one article had to say about McFadden.

Run DMC crushed it 2010 with double digit TDs and over 1,600 total yards, but was it aberration or can he repeat his breakout season? The first red flag with McFadden is the fact that he has missed 10 games over his first three seasons with various amounts of injuries. Most notably is his turf toe injuries that has creeped up in multiple seasons. The second red flag for DMC is the fact that he scored 101 of his fantasy points in ONLY three games and the other 107 points in the OTHER ten games he played in. The lack of consistent production probably cost most of his owners to lose out on his week 14 outburst against the Jags (38 points). He is an injury waiting to happen and despite the fact that is has the talent to be a dominant player, his first round grade is too rich for a guy who has only produced once in his first three seasons.
http://fantasyfanplay.com/features/one-hit-wonders/
 
This is exactly how I see it. Consistency matters.

'The Dynasty said:
Here's what one article had to say about McFadden.

Run DMC crushed it 2010 with double digit TDs and over 1,600 total yards, but was it aberration or can he repeat his breakout season? The first red flag with McFadden is the fact that he has missed 10 games over his first three seasons with various amounts of injuries. Most notably is his turf toe injuries that has creeped up in multiple seasons. The second red flag for DMC is the fact that he scored 101 of his fantasy points in ONLY three games and the other 107 points in the OTHER ten games he played in. The lack of consistent production probably cost most of his owners to lose out on his week 14 outburst against the Jags (38 points). He is an injury waiting to happen and despite the fact that is has the talent to be a dominant player, his first round grade is too rich for a guy who has only produced once in his first three seasons.
http://fantasyfanplay.com/features/one-hit-wonders/
Was he really more inconsistent than any other running back in the league? I think you would be hard pressed to find any running back that doesn't give you 3 clunker games. Even Arian Foster had 3 bad games last year. Look at Lesean McCoy, Chris Johnson, and Adrian Peterson's game logs. Not to mention, when it came to missing a game due to injury at least you knew to put in a substitute. Peterson screwed people and missed a game and a majority of people didn't even see it comng.

 
He is 23 years old. He turns 24 August 27. I really think critics are not appreciating just how young he was when he played his first two seasons. He is just entering his prime right now... at the same time as the second best RB on the team is likely to depart, further securing McFadden's role as the focal point of the offense. I think he'll do even better this year.

270/1325/10 rushing

55/550/2 receiving

 
This is exactly how I see it. Consistency matters.
You'd rather have an average RB that consistently produces 60-70 yards 0.4TD's per game every game? (which by the way doesn't really exist, but no matter...) Darren McFadden has the elite talent, moves, top flight speed, extra gear, and has demonstrated his ability on inside and outside rushes. He is also a superb receiver out of the backfield, and is just now being mentioned with the likes of ADP and Chris Johnson. The red flags of that report dial into old, stale fears that were valid up until the start of the 2010 season. But DMC has since erased that old reputation, and is an elite back. He's still young, and I am sure that he is looking to use 2010 as a launch pad to prove he is indeed the best RB in the NFL. There are a lot of other starting RB's that can get you consistent numbers. But the key to fantasy success is having explosive RB's over consistent RB's. Not that consistent RB's don't have room on your roster, just as backups. McFadden = STUD Consistency fears are for lesser backs.
 

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