Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants (1 Viewer)

2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants

Player Page Link: Eli Manning Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

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[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

Eli Manning is another of the first overall NFL pick QBs. He is not one of the upper tier drafted QBs, but his numbers year to year are very consistent.

He has not missed a single start in his last six seasons so he is a guy that you can count on being there for your team. He has solid WRs, including Nicks, Manningham, Steve Smith, Bradshaw, and rookie Jerrel Jernigan drafted in the 3rd round.

He is not usually drafted high, but he has finished as QB 5, 11, 14, 13, 10, and 10 over those same six seasons.

For the past two years, he has completed over 62% of his attempts and has averaged 7.66 ypa and 29 TDs per year.

Eli Manning is a very safe QB that you can wait on and take rather late. Especially in smaller leagues and those that do not feature high QB scoring, he is a great selection.

Eli Manning 16 gms 326 of 520 62.7% 4010 yds 7.71 ypa 29 TDs and 15 ints 20 runs 30 yds 0 TDs

I agree with rzrback. Manning is always drafted as a QB2 and is someone you can specifically target as your backup, yet know that most of the time he's going to give you fringe QB1 productivity. While a lot of people focus on his league-leading INTs last year (the 2nd time in 4 seasons he's been the league leader), he also set career highs for completions, attempts, completion rate and TD passes. Whereas a few years ago Manning was thought of as more of a game manager that would never put up big numbers, he's quietly turned into a 4,000-yard, 25-30 TD passer. I could EASILY see those numbers come back a little bit, because the Giants would love to find more balance, but I think he's got one of the highest floors outside of the truly elite fantasy QBs. Since "you know what you're getting", he's also unlikely to catch fire and rise up the draft boards as we near the season. While others are chasing the speculative flavor of the week, you can grab Manning and know you've banked value.

Eli is my #1 value play at QB. Outside the elite 6-7 QBs, he is the safest bet for 4000 yards. As Jason says, the floor is solid and very high. As for the ceiling...how surprised would you be if Eli finished top-5?

One thing that bothers me is if Steve Smith misses time / doesn't recover / doesn't return, and Eli has to throw mostly to Nicks and Manningham. It's redonkeylous how careless those two are when it comes to preventing INTs.

338 of 528, 4055, 29-15

Pretty much agree with what's already been said.

Manning's a "boring" QB1, but he's about as bankable as anyone of late and is an excellent bet to finish no worse than 10th in QB scoring in most formats....but you can often times get him as the 12th+ QB off the board.

The Giant offense is built to throw(or at least built to be "balanced and not afraid to throw at any point in time of any game if they feel like it") and with the # of quality targets he has, including Bradshaw out of the backfield, Eli's almost a mortal lock for near 4,000 yards and at least 25 TDs. INTs will vary year to year, but they will likely be high-ish. If you can live with a year where he chucks nearly as many picks as TDs, which is always possible with Eli, there are few "safer" bets if you're waiting on a QB.

He's durable, he's been in that offense for a while now, he's not that old, and he has quality receiving targets at WR and RB. If the Giants could ever find a passable pass-receiving TE he'd probably even be able to cut down on the interceptions some, since he'd have another quality outlet target.

515 attempts, 3925 yards, 27 TDs, 17 INTs, 20 rushing attempts for 60 yards, 1 rush TD.

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/04/06/fantasy-offensive-depth-chart-review-new-york-giants/

April 6th, 2011 | Author: Steve Wyremski

Eli Manning

Manning wrapped up 2010 with a career high 31 TDs (ranked 4th among QBs) and his second best career yardage total with 4,002 yards (ranked 5th). He excelled in the intermediate routes (10 to 19 yards from scrimmage) where he posted a 24.5 PFF rating. Eli ranked as the 8th best fantasy QB despite struggling with a league-leading 25 interceptions, or 1 per every 23 drop backs, which ranked 3rd worst of QBs with at least 150 drop backs.

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Several sources attribute 10 of the interceptions to WRs tipping catchable balls to the defense. Hopefully that number will go down as his WRs further develop their skills. Some mention the Giants will want to run more, but I don't think this will be the case, first the Oline hasn't been improved through the draft. Second, even if they added a couple of FA, how much could the running attack improve? The Giants were 7th in rushing attempts and rushing for a first down, 6th in rushing yards and yards per rush and tied for 6th in rushing TDs. There's not much room to move up, and even if they became the #1 rushing team, I'm not certain the passing would drop much as the Giants are one of the more run heavy teams in the league, as this article shows http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/06/09/fantasy-head-coach-offensive-coordinator-trends/

Eli should throw for about 4,000/30/17

I suppose not many people want to write about Eli because the best thing about him is his durability. He's being drafted as QB12, which is just about right given his top 10 finishes the last two years have more to do with his 16 games played than his ppg numbers. If you find yourself as the last guy to take a QB in a 12-team league, he is the perfect guy to pair with an upside QB (like Cutler, imo). If the other guy craps out on you, you've still got a guy good for at least 3800/25 to plug in on a weekly basis.

It is possible that the Giants shift to the ground game somewhat in 2011 (Eli was 8th in attempts last year), but I'd be shocked to see Eli pass the ball less than 500 times. Given the emergence of Nicks and Manningham and the possibility of Steven Smith returning, I'd say things are looking good for Manning to come pretty close to his 4000 yds and 27+ TD pace he's been on the last two years. If Bradshaw departs then Manning could see a bump in his attempts rather than a slight dip.

510 att, 320 comp, 7.6 ypa, 3876 yds, 27 TD, 18 INT

25 rush, 65 yds, 0 TD

Eli Manning is the last QB for me that I would be comfortable as my everyweek starter. He's not flashy and will unlikely finish in the top 6-7 QBs, but you know you'll get 225-275 yards passing and 1-2 scores each week. Nicks, Smith, Manningham and Boss are a nice foursome of targets for Manning. Durable. Safe play for those who wait at QB and build their team around RBs and WRs.

3950 yards passing, 27 TD, 17Int

50 yards rushing, 1 TD

If I decide to wait on QB's while drafting this year, I'm targetting Eli to pair with Matt Stafford. As has been said earlier, Eli's safe, not an injury risk, and is sneaky better than some think.

I play in a league where we are not penalized for INT's so I have no problem at all with Eli.

575 attempts, 350 completions, 4,000 yards, 29 TD's, 18 INT's.

I plan on pairing Eli with Kolb in a very solid QBBC - let the other owners pay through the nose for the other top QBs. If Eli puts up similar stats but cuts those fluky INTS by 50% he would have finished #6 overall right behind Rivers in my league....at 25% of the price. Worth the risk IMO.

Eli threw for 12 td's in 4 games against the cowboys and eagles last year. new def. coordinator for 'boys and new corners for eagles should chop that number in half this year.

Some of the love Eli gets seems to be because he barely snuck past the 4,000 yard threshold the past two seasons. He took a few big steps forward the past two years as Smith, Nicks and Manningham became contributors and Boss also improved as a weapon. The loss of Boss and Steve Smith might mean Eli is less safe than many think. Consider that Maningham has 2 red-zone TDs in 19 targets in 2 years while Boss and Smith were significant targets and his TD% the past two years, 5.3 and 5.8, are noticeably higher than his next best season (4.6% in 2006). Manning also jumped from a 56-57% passer to a 60% passer the year Smith first really got on the field (57 receptions his sophomore season). If we attribute 1/2 of Mannings improvements to him actually improving and the other half to improving weapons (barring a breakout from Cruz or the like) he projects more like a 60-61%, 3,800, 27 TD guy than a 4,000/30 TD some people are banking on.

Still a low end #1/ high end #2 but not as high as some are expecting.

Very solid with 4000 yard 30 td potential. A lot of his int's last year were fluky balls that would take weird bounces off of the receivers hands and get grabbed for int's. This is the guy who many will draft if they plan on going wr/rb heavy early on. 6 years in a row he's been a top 13 qb, and with Nicks and Manningham both already good and still growing, I see no reason for a let down. If Hixon or Cruz can be a good slot receiver it only helps matters. The loss of Boss hurts only slightly because he was a decent red zone target for manning, but his loss is more of a let down for the running backs because he was a very good blocker. Travis Beckham is basically a wide receiver playing tight end, I imagine the Giants get him more active this year because he can really play. The only problem with Manning is that you will get nearly zero trade value for him. If he has a monster start, but someone like Matt Stafford has the same start, people treat Eli like nothing and Stafford like gold. Now obviously with all of Stafford's potential, people think he can possibly be a big time player, understandably. But I'm just saying Manning will not give you the value of a safe, borderline qb1 in trade talks. He's a guy you draft and just play him in the right match ups.

3850 yards

28 td

15 int

60 rush yrds

1 td

~qb11

watched the game closely last week - I know it was Miami who stinks but Eli has looked reaqlly good - much better than I hoped. Cruz has filled Smith's spot nicely and Ballard for Boss.....firmly in the top 10 so far - on pace for 4,000 yds, 30 TDs and only 11 ints....can he keep it up?

'Hedgehog said:

watched the game closely last week - I know it was Miami who stinks but Eli has looked reaqlly good - much better than I hoped. Cruz has filled Smith's spot nicely and Ballard for Boss.....firmly in the top 10 so far - on pace for 4,000 yds, 30 TDs and only 11 ints....can he keep it up?

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I really starting to like Eli lately. It seems like he's getting much smarter where and when he throws the ball. Earlier in the season he was tossing it into coverage, and now it seems that he throws it away when he has no options. Aside from that, he's been very accurate on good throws. If only the Giants receiving core could start catching more passes. I feel like the Giants could have been up a lot earlier in that game if the receivers were making easy catches.

'Squintz82 said:

'Hedgehog said:

watched the game closely last week - I know it was Miami who stinks but Eli has looked reaqlly good - much better than I hoped. Cruz has filled Smith's spot nicely and Ballard for Boss.....firmly in the top 10 so far - on pace for 4,000 yds, 30 TDs and only 11 ints....can he keep it up?

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I really starting to like Eli lately. It seems like he's getting much smarter where and when he throws the ball. Earlier in the season he was tossing it into coverage, and now it seems that he throws it away when he has no options. Aside from that, he's been very accurate on good throws. If only the Giants receiving core could start catching more passes. I feel like the Giants could have been up a lot earlier in that game if the receivers were making easy catches.

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?His achilles heel last season was turnovers....he has drastically reduced them - in fact out of his 4 or 5 picks this season I recall 2 bouncing off Cruz into a CB and another was a hail mary or something - he looks very confident and poised...his schedules tightens up and the weather may be in play down the stretch but if you drafted Eli so far you cant be upset.

He may have 50 attempts this week. I see him as a top 5 fantasy qb this week (and maybe even for the rest of the season).

'fred_1_15301 said:

He may have 50 attempts this week. I see him as a top 5 fantasy qb this week (and maybe even for the rest of the season).

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The loss of Bradshaw is definitely going to help Eli's value. If only Nicks could stay healthy...