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Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers

Player Page Link: Philip Rivers Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
As FBG's biggest Rivers fan, I am happy to be the first to post in his spotlight this year.

IMO he has finally established himself nationally as one of the top handful of QBs in the NFL. I think national opinion would now put Peyton, Brees, and Brady (in no order) at the top of the NFL pecking order, with Rivers, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, and Vick in the next group. Some people might add Romo to that latter group, but I think most would not. Personally, I think Rivers is the best of that second group and will prove to have more staying power than the others. I'm happy to see Rivers getting the recognition that he has deserved for a couple of years now. :thumbup:

Rivers has been an elite fantasy performer for the past 3 years. Using FBG scoring, he has finished #3, #7, and #5 among QBs over that span. But consider:

- He was 4 points behind #2 Rodgers in 2008

- In 2009, he was QB6 through week 16, 3.2 points behind QB5 (Brady) and 5.2 points behind QB4 (Schaub); Rivers only played one quarter in week 17, and Romo, Roethlisberger, and Favre all passed him when they played full games

- He was 11 points behind #1 Brady in 2010

Going forward, Rivers is in his prime, and Norv is going nowhere, so the offense will not change. With Jackson, Floyd, Naanee, and Sproles all free agents, and Buster Davis likely to be cut (IMO), the skill players around Rivers could be quite a bit different than they were this year. In 2010, Rivers completed a pass to 17 different receivers and completed a TD pass to 11 different receivers. It is also interesting to note that among those 17 receivers were 7 UDFAs; although that includes Gates, he is obviously the exception to the rule, and Rivers' performance is all the more impressive given the pedigree of the receivers he had. Bottom line, he threw for 4710/30 despite revolving doors WR and TE, including plenty of marginal talent. IMO the skill players around him can only improve from what he experienced this season.

Also note that Rivers has never missed a game in his college or NFL career. He is extremely durable. If anyone is safe to project for 16 games, he is.

A general question right now for all players is how they will be affected if the preseason and/or regular season are shortened. The good news for Rivers is that he has traditionally come out of the gate strong. Over the past 3 seasons, he is #1 in the league in fantasy points in games 1-4. Here are the numbers for the top 10 (FBG scoring):

1 Philip Rivers 278.05

2 Aaron Rodgers 276.00

3 Drew Brees 264.80

4 Peyton Manning 258.65

5 Jay Cutler 250.95

6 Tony Romo 218.95

7 Kyle Orton 217.65

8 Matt Schaub 214.65

9 Eli Manning 206.65

10 David Garrard 203.35

Big questions for Rivers:

1. Will the Chargers have a stronger running game, and, if so, how will that affect Rivers' passing attempts? I would assume the running game will be stronger, which could reduce his attempts.

2. Will the Chargers' special teams be better than last year, and, if so, how will that affect Rivers' passing attempts? It would be hard to imagine the special teams not being better. They were historically bad. That could reduce Rivers' attempts.

3. Who will be the primary receiving options besides Gates, and how will that affect Rivers? As mentioned above, it's likely that the overall quality of Rivers' targets will improve, which should only help his performance. There were a number of occasions last season when key first downs and/or TDs were dropped at crucial times, so Rivers' numbers likely would have been better had the Chargers not had so many missed games by his primary targets.

I'll post more later...

 
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'Just Win Baby said:
2. Will the Chargers' special teams be better than last year, and, if so, how will that affect Rivers' passing attempts? It would be hard to imagine the special teams not being better. They were historically bad. That could reduce Rivers' attempts.
I think that's a fair point but it may be offset by losing Rivera and creating a scenario where there could be more shoot-outs. Rivera really did a spectacular job with a group of players that aren't world beaters in my opinion.
 
'Just Win Baby said:
I think national opinion would now put Peyton, Brees, and Brady (in no order) at the top of the NFL pecking order, with Rivers, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, and Vick in the next group. Some people might add Romo to that latter group, but I think most would not. Personally, I think Rivers is the best of that second group and will prove to have more staying power than the others.
For the most part, I like your post. But here is where that homerism comes into play and might make someone question what you're saying. You mention how he's been elite, finished #3, #7, and #5 the last 3 years. So, what about the guy that's finished #2, #1, and #2? You listed him in the same group but you say Rivers should be at the top of the group?Rivers is indeed an elite QB but I don't see how you rank him above Rodgers aside from homerism?
 
'Just Win Baby said:
I think national opinion would now put Peyton, Brees, and Brady (in no order) at the top of the NFL pecking order, with Rivers, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, and Vick in the next group. Some people might add Romo to that latter group, but I think most would not. Personally, I think Rivers is the best of that second group and will prove to have more staying power than the others.
For the most part, I like your post. But here is where that homerism comes into play and might make someone question what you're saying. You mention how he's been elite, finished #3, #7, and #5 the last 3 years. So, what about the guy that's finished #2, #1, and #2? You listed him in the same group but you say Rivers should be at the top of the group?Rivers is indeed an elite QB but I don't see how you rank him above Rodgers aside from homerism?
Perhaps I wasn't clear. The paragraph you quoted was referring to NFL value, not fantasy value. When I transitioned to discussion about fantasy value, I brought up his fantasy finishes. I don't rank Rivers above Rodgers as a fantasy QB for 2011; I think Rodgers is the #1 fantasy QB in both redraft and dynasty.What I did say is that I think Rivers will have more staying power than the others I grouped in his tier, including Rodgers. That is, I think Rivers will be able to maintain his elite performance longer. Rivers has never missed a game due to injury; Rodgers has missed some games due to injury and has had multiple concussions, and his style also lends itself to getting hit more often than most elite QBs. Furthermore, Rivers has proven that he can perform at an elite level with practice squad receivers; Rodgers may be able to do that, but we don't know that, since he hasn't had to do so. With QBs at this level, we're generally splitting hairs, and I think those things favor Rivers over Rodgers for the long term. If that is homerism, I'm fine with that.
 
Philip Rivers is one of those NFL guys that teammates and fans of his team love him and everybody else doesn't. I think that fact that he comes off as so abrasive to opponents is one that you might be able to capitalize on in your fantasy drafts.

He doesn't often slip in drafts, but when compared to recent top shelf QBs such as Brady, P. Manning, Brees, Vick, and Rodgers, he could the last of those drafted and his performance has been right there with them over the past three seasons.

In those three years, he has averaged 4,324 yards and 30 TDs. His attempts spiked last year, but he still should throw in the neighborhood of 500 passes and has averaged almost 8.7 ypa over the past three years. He like the Manning brothers doesn't miss games as he has played all 16 games for the past five seasons.

Now, let's consider his weapons. As posted by JWB, he has accomplished this with a hodge podge of WRs and Gates. Looking forward to 2011, we don't know, but I expect that V. Jackson will be there and either one of the secondary guys (Floyd or Naanee) will return and I believe it is likely that the Chargers add an experienced and talented WR, like Steve Smith or Ocho.

To me, he seems solid for over 4,000 yards and my projection below seems conservative.

Philip Rivers 16 gms 334 of 510 attempts 65.5% for 4182 yds 8.2 ypa and 32 TDs with 10 ints 20 runs for 60 yds and 0 TDs

 
I think national opinion would now put Peyton, Brees, and Brady (in no order) at the top of the NFL pecking order, with Rivers, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, and Vick in the next group. Some people might add Romo to that latter group, but I think most would not. Personally, I think Rivers is the best of that second group and will prove to have more staying power than the others.
For the most part, I like your post. But here is where that homerism comes into play and might make someone question what you're saying. You mention how he's been elite, finished #3, #7, and #5 the last 3 years. So, what about the guy that's finished #2, #1, and #2? You listed him in the same group but you say Rivers should be at the top of the group?Rivers is indeed an elite QB but I don't see how you rank him above Rodgers aside from homerism?
Perhaps I wasn't clear. The paragraph you quoted was referring to NFL value, not fantasy value. When I transitioned to discussion about fantasy value, I brought up his fantasy finishes. I don't rank Rivers above Rodgers as a fantasy QB for 2011; I think Rodgers is the #1 fantasy QB in both redraft and dynasty.What I did say is that I think Rivers will have more staying power than the others I grouped in his tier, including Rodgers. That is, I think Rivers will be able to maintain his elite performance longer. Rivers has never missed a game due to injury; Rodgers has missed some games due to injury and has had multiple concussions, and his style also lends itself to getting hit more often than most elite QBs. Furthermore, Rivers has proven that he can perform at an elite level with practice squad receivers; Rodgers may be able to do that, but we don't know that, since he hasn't had to do so. With QBs at this level, we're generally splitting hairs, and I think those things favor Rivers over Rodgers for the long term. If that is homerism, I'm fine with that.
Makes sense, thanks for the clarification. FWIW, I agree with that as well. :thumbup:
 
He doesn't often slip in drafts, but when compared to recent top shelf QBs such as Brady, P. Manning, Brees, Vick, and Rodgers, he could the last of those drafted and his performance has been right there with them over the past three seasons.
I think you nailed this. For me personally, Rivers is the qb I target. With him typically taken after most of the other "elite" qbs, he becomes more of a value pick - get a better wr/rb and still get a high-end qb. Of course I would be happy with any of the other qbs in mentioned in your list, but generally I like to let someone else start the qb run and then whoever is left at qb 5,6,7 I'll grab. Typically that will be Rivers who I like at least as well as any others.
 
I think national opinion would now put Peyton, Brees, and Brady (in no order) at the top of the NFL pecking order, with Rivers, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, and Vick in the next group. Some people might add Romo to that latter group, but I think most would not. Personally, I think Rivers is the best of that second group and will prove to have more staying power than the others.
For the most part, I like your post. But here is where that homerism comes into play and might make someone question what you're saying. You mention how he's been elite, finished #3, #7, and #5 the last 3 years. So, what about the guy that's finished #2, #1, and #2? You listed him in the same group but you say Rivers should be at the top of the group?Rivers is indeed an elite QB but I don't see how you rank him above Rodgers aside from homerism?
Perhaps I wasn't clear. The paragraph you quoted was referring to NFL value, not fantasy value. When I transitioned to discussion about fantasy value, I brought up his fantasy finishes. I don't rank Rivers above Rodgers as a fantasy QB for 2011; I think Rodgers is the #1 fantasy QB in both redraft and dynasty.What I did say is that I think Rivers will have more staying power than the others I grouped in his tier, including Rodgers. That is, I think Rivers will be able to maintain his elite performance longer. Rivers has never missed a game due to injury; Rodgers has missed some games due to injury and has had multiple concussions, and his style also lends itself to getting hit more often than most elite QBs. Furthermore, Rivers has proven that he can perform at an elite level with practice squad receivers; Rodgers may be able to do that, but we don't know that, since he hasn't had to do so. With QBs at this level, we're generally splitting hairs, and I think those things favor Rivers over Rodgers for the long term. If that is homerism, I'm fine with that.
Makes sense, thanks for the clarification. FWIW, I agree with that as well. :thumbup:
Wait, so you guys would both put Rivers in the same tier as Rodgers (and possibly higher) for NFL purposes? There is no way that I would trade Rodgers away for Rivers straight up.
 
I think national opinion would now put Peyton, Brees, and Brady (in no order) at the top of the NFL pecking order, with Rivers, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, and Vick in the next group. Some people might add Romo to that latter group, but I think most would not. Personally, I think Rivers is the best of that second group and will prove to have more staying power than the others.
For the most part, I like your post. But here is where that homerism comes into play and might make someone question what you're saying. You mention how he's been elite, finished #3, #7, and #5 the last 3 years. So, what about the guy that's finished #2, #1, and #2? You listed him in the same group but you say Rivers should be at the top of the group?Rivers is indeed an elite QB but I don't see how you rank him above Rodgers aside from homerism?
Perhaps I wasn't clear. The paragraph you quoted was referring to NFL value, not fantasy value. When I transitioned to discussion about fantasy value, I brought up his fantasy finishes. I don't rank Rivers above Rodgers as a fantasy QB for 2011; I think Rodgers is the #1 fantasy QB in both redraft and dynasty.What I did say is that I think Rivers will have more staying power than the others I grouped in his tier, including Rodgers. That is, I think Rivers will be able to maintain his elite performance longer. Rivers has never missed a game due to injury; Rodgers has missed some games due to injury and has had multiple concussions, and his style also lends itself to getting hit more often than most elite QBs. Furthermore, Rivers has proven that he can perform at an elite level with practice squad receivers; Rodgers may be able to do that, but we don't know that, since he hasn't had to do so. With QBs at this level, we're generally splitting hairs, and I think those things favor Rivers over Rodgers for the long term. If that is homerism, I'm fine with that.
Makes sense, thanks for the clarification. FWIW, I agree with that as well. :thumbup:
Wait, so you guys would both put Rivers in the same tier as Rodgers (and possibly higher) for NFL purposes? There is no way that I would trade Rodgers away for Rivers straight up.
I might, either way, its close, and i would love to have either.
 
Rivers is absolutely in the very top tier of fantasy QBs, and should also be ranked at the top in terms of NFL QBs. He continues to be curiously underrated, both in fantasy and NFL terms. No QB in the league gets more out of less than this guy. The only top flight receiver he's ever had in San Diego is TE Gates (no, I don't think Jackson is elite in any way, shape or form).

Rivers also has to cope with the world's most overrated coach, the lifelong loser (just look at his career record) Norv Turner. Turner also actually holds down Rivers' fantasy stats. Unlike most coaches, Turner will virtually never go to play action fakes in the red zone, so Rivers gets very few of the short TD passes than most of his competitors do. Turner always runs it down near the goal line, and he apparently doesn't have the QB sneak in his playbook, so again Rivers loses out on a few rushing TDs every season because of that.

Rivers is also very consistent, and as has been mentioned, extremely durable.

 
Phillip Rivers is not as good as Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Ben Roethlesberger. Those guys all have SB rings and have played well in post seasons, unlike Rivers. Rivers has not yet followed through and delivered big for the Chargers. I'd rank him as a NFL QB behind all of the guys I mentioned above but ahead of guys like Romo and Schaub.

In terms of fantasy football he is solid. If you land him as QB 5 or later you don't lose any value at the QB position.

4100 yards for 31 Tds and 16 Int's

 
In my opinion, Chargers fans (in general, of course) will not properly "get on" their team, player, coach, GM when there is something wrong with it. There's an almost forgiving tone to it and I'd swear I could search these forums and link to hundreds of posts where the Chargers made an oops, it's customary for fans to "let em' hear it" and...Chargers fans didn't. It's the NFL forum's equivalent of "they could do better." There's just no way ya wanna hear that on a forum. It's too polite and too unfootballfan like.

ANYHOW...

Rivers is awesome.

(Blame can be thrown wherever for this) Their rook RB did not replace Tomlinson and put up anywhere near "old" Tomlinson type numbers. Rivers had to cover that loss of offensive punch, but most importantly defenses could play different not being afraid of a balanced attack.

Mister Gates is phenomenal every year and every November has an injury that is annoying to FFers. (<--define that as serious or...not putting toe in that water)

I haven't liked their WRs since Rivers got there.

If someone wants to reword that to "it's not the WRs but the offense" then go ahead.

Rivers is blessed with a unique ability, that precious few NFL QBs have ever had, to adapt. I don't care what it is, if you watch a game, you'd swear you can see him learning. Brady, Montana, Peyton...if you had a D crushing them in the first half, they were destroying it in the second. If the CB jumped the gun to get an INT, he was getting burned with a pump fake. This "it" that Rivers has is extremely special.

In my opinion, a handful of years ago, the Chargers went through a period where they signed a million tall Wide Receivers that weren't necessarily good but were very tall. Without an offense predominantly based upon lofting lob passes, I never understood that move.

I don't want to hear that the Giants in the 80s, the Pats first Supe run, the Ravens with Dilfer, etc were won with subpar WRs. Skip all those excuses.

I want a blessed QB to throw to some special WRs. Not they may be. Not well in time. Not, but he was injured. Not...oy! Just give Rivers a sweet offense to work with.

I don't think the Chargers win a single game without Rivers. I would even be tempted to say they get blown out in most.

For FF (sorry Jason, re-thread) I would be all over Rivers in every draft imaginable if (there is) in preseason we see the Chargers have this fluid passing game. Without it, the guy drives me nuts. I feel I am banking on him to overcome his team's deficiencies every week. He does most of the time, but it's so odd in FF to start the guy that has to overcome so much.

 
The SD offense will continue to run through Rivers. While I believe that SD will be a little more balanced on offense this year, you just can't ignore SD's real playmakers - VJax, Floyd and Gates. What I like about him is that he consistently gets his 250-300 yards and 2 scores week after week. And he has thrown at least 1 TD pass in 29 of his last 32 games. And he does it without throwing an insane amount of passes.....SD passed the ball 55% of the time in 2010. I would suspect his average yards per completion is the best in the NFL....last year he averaged 13.2 yards per completion. That's getting it down the field! He is very durable and willing to play nicked up. His ADP is QB6, so you can get him a round, maybe two rounds later than Rodgers, and not see a big difference in production. Sure, you're likely going to have to spend a 3rd round pick on Rivers, but you get elite production, get a chance to draft a solid RB1 and WR1 in the first two rounds, and you don't have to worry about the QB position until much later in the draft.

4350 yards passing, 32 TD, 14 Int

75 yards rushing, 1 TD

 
'fightingillini said:
Sure, you're likely going to have to spend a 3rd round pick on Rivers, but you get elite production, get a chance to draft a solid RB1 and WR1 in the first two rounds, and you don't have to worry about the QB position until much later in the draft.
wouldn't you be thin at RB? Round 3 is usually the ending point for (well no it feels that way, it isn't) quality RBs
 
'fightingillini said:
Sure, you're likely going to have to spend a 3rd round pick on Rivers, but you get elite production, get a chance to draft a solid RB1 and WR1 in the first two rounds, and you don't have to worry about the QB position until much later in the draft.
wouldn't you be thin at RB? Round 3 is usually the ending point for (well no it feels that way, it isn't) quality RBs
I don't see it that way. There are 11-12 RBs IMO that will be featured in the way that they will get 300+ touches. Then there is a big tier of RBs that are the bigger part of an RBBC. There are 10 or so really good WRs and a slew of solid ones. If you're drafting in the upper half of the draft, you're in good position to get a solid RB1 in Round 1, a top 7-8 WR in Round 2, and Rivers in Round 3. That's a good start. It's doubtful that you'll get two top 12 RBs in rounds 1 and 2 if you're drafting in the upper half of the draft. So why not secure three top players and look for RBs later? According to ADP, you could get a guy like Blount in Round 4. Or Moreno. Or Jonathan Stewart. I will take one of them as my RB2 and back it up with a guy like Felix Jones a round or two later.You could go RB RB in the first two rounds and then get Rivers in the 3rd. Then your WR1 will be someone like Colston or Maclin, I am not thrilled with that. Give me a Ray Rice/Larry Fitzgerald/Rivers/Blount start any day of the week.
 
With Manning's neck issues and Brady going against the Jets....I have Rivers 3rd overall behind Vick and Rodgers.Playing the AFC West twice never hurts either.

I see roughly 4100 yds and 34 TDs.

 
1. Will the Chargers have a stronger running game, and, if so, how will that affect Rivers' passing attempts? I would assume the running game will be stronger, which could reduce his attempts.

2. Will the Chargers' special teams be better than last year, and, if so, how will that affect Rivers' passing attempts? It would be hard to imagine the special teams not being better. They were historically bad. That could reduce Rivers' attempts.

3. Who will be the primary receiving options besides Gates, and how will that affect Rivers? As mentioned above, it's likely that the overall quality of Rivers' targets will improve, which should only help his performance. There were a number of occasions last season when key first downs and/or TDs were dropped at crucial times, so Rivers' numbers likely would have been better had the Chargers not had so many missed games by his primary targets.

I'll post more later...
This is my primary concern. I think the Chargers are really, really good, and as long as their ST are even average, they should be able to win more games, and put them out of reach fairly quickly, than in the past. I consider Rivers to be a lock to do very well this season, and I consider him an elite QB, but I think his team's improvement might actually keep him out of the fantasy stratosphere.
 
Phillip Rivers is not as good as Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Ben Roethlesberger. Those guys all have SB rings and have played well in post seasons, unlike Rivers. Rivers has not yet followed through and delivered big for the Chargers. I'd rank him as a NFL QB behind all of the guys I mentioned above but ahead of guys like Romo and Schaub.In terms of fantasy football he is solid. If you land him as QB 5 or later you don't lose any value at the QB position.4100 yards for 31 Tds and 16 Int's
Since Rivers became a starter in '06, here is how those guys have done in the playoffs:
Code:
                                                   Pass Pass  Pass Pass Pass Pass  Pass Pass PassRk               Player From   To  Lg  Tm  G W L T  Cmp  Att  Cmp%  Yds   TD  Int  Rate  Y/A AY/A1           Kurt Warner 2008 2009 NFL CRD  6 4 2 0  138  194 71.1% 1731   16    4 117.4 8.92 9.642         Aaron Rodgers 2007 2010 NFL GNB  6 5 1 0  118  174 67.8% 1517   13    3 112.6 8.72 9.443            Drew Brees 2006 2010 NFL NOR  6 4 2 0  158  243 65.0% 1733   13    1 102.1 7.13 8.024          Mark Sanchez 2009 2010 NFL NYJ  6 4 2 0   95  157 60.5% 1155    9    3  94.3 7.36 7.645         Philip Rivers 2006 2009 NFL SDG  7 3 4 0  134  229 58.5% 1820    8    9  79.2 7.95 6.886        Peyton Manning 2006 2010 NFL CLT 10 6 4 0  260  397 65.5% 2927   14   11  87.6 7.37 6.837           Eli Manning 2006 2008 NFL NYG  6 4 2 0  103  175 58.9% 1184    8    4  85.0 6.77 6.658    Ben Roethlisberger 2007 2010 NFL PIT  7 5 2 0  137  222 61.7% 1651    9    8  83.0 7.44 6.639        Donovan McNabb 2008 2009 NFL PHI  4 2 2 0   92  158 58.2% 1122    6    5  79.7 7.10 6.4410      Matt Hasselbeck 2006 2010 NFL SEA  6 3 3 0  123  215 57.2% 1388   12    6  83.6 6.46 6.3211            Tom Brady 2006 2010 NFL NWE  8 4 4 0  199  315 63.2% 1914   15   11  81.4 6.08 5.4612           Joe Flacco 2008 2010 NFL RAV  7 4 3 0   98  184 53.3% 1050    4    7  61.6 5.71 4.43
 
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Also note that Rivers has never missed a game in his college or NFL career. He is extremely durable. If anyone is safe to project for 16 games, he is.
He's the new Manning: guaranteed production every week. Draft your backup in the last round (or wait for the WW) and grab an extra mid-round WR/RB.
 
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With Manning's neck issues and Brady going against the Jets....I have Rivers 3rd overall behind Vick and Rodgers.Playing the AFC West twice never hurts either.I see roughly 4100 yds and 34 TDs.
I've got Rivers #3 as well. 4,100 yards may be his floor now. Instability at RB (Mathews injuries, no sproles) plus the addition of a year with V Jax could mean more TD's.I'm going to say 4,500 yards and 35 TD's.
 
Rivers is elite, and can be had slightly cheaper than other elite QB's.

I'm targeting him if it works out. If not, Romo, Roeth.

 

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