Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions (1 Viewer)

2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions

Player Page Link: Matthew Stafford Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

He's a guy to draft, for the simple reason that his ceiling is so high. He's got natural ability, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, and the secret weapon of any stud QB--a RB who can rip a checkdown for 80 yards. In addition, his team's only prayer of winning football games is through offense (Silver Crush my ###).

He's had injuries, but it doesn't seem like anything chronic and he's got the character to condition himself properly (which is all you can look for, IMO. The 'injury-prone' label is a notorious myth).

I see him having an Eli-type year--numbers that rival the elite guys save for a lot of int's. 3750/30/20.

'Jercules said:

He's a guy to draft, for the simple reason that his ceiling is so high. He's got natural ability, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, and the secret weapon of any stud QB--a RB who can rip a checkdown for 80 yards. In addition, his team's only prayer of winning football games is through offense (Silver Crush my ###).He's had injuries, but it doesn't seem like anything chronic and he's got the character to condition himself properly (which is all you can look for, IMO. The 'injury-prone' label is a notorious myth).I see him having an Eli-type year--numbers that rival the elite guys save for a lot of int's. 3750/30/20.

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I agree wholeheartedly with your assessment! I'm hoping people count him out and focus more on his injury concerns--IMO, he represents great value in almost all leagues/formats. I think this is the year that Stafford stays healthy and the Lions offense becomes quite prolific. I can something along the lines of 3500, 28, 17

'Jercules said:

He's a guy to draft, for the simple reason that his ceiling is so high. He's got natural ability, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, and the secret weapon of any stud QB--a RB who can rip a checkdown for 80 yards. In addition, his team's only prayer of winning football games is through offense (Silver Crush my ###).

He's had injuries, but it doesn't seem like anything chronic and he's got the character to condition himself properly (which is all you can look for, IMO. The 'injury-prone' label is a notorious myth).

I see him having an Eli-type year--numbers that rival the elite guys save for a lot of int's. 3750/30/20.

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Who is this? Best? How many times has he done that? How many times from 30 yards out?

I've been following the news on Stafford pretty closely. Word is that through rehab he gained 10lbs of muscle. Looked for a link but couldn't find it. He's coming into the season 100% and stronger than before. He's got a lot more weapons around him than last year.I'm a buyer on Stafford this year as a top 10 QB.

'Addai said:

'Jercules said:

He's a guy to draft, for the simple reason that his ceiling is so high. He's got natural ability, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, and the secret weapon of any stud QB--a RB who can rip a checkdown for 80 yards. In addition, his team's only prayer of winning football games is through offense (Silver Crush my ###).

He's had injuries, but it doesn't seem like anything chronic and he's got the character to condition himself properly (which is all you can look for, IMO. The 'injury-prone' label is a notorious myth).

I see him having an Eli-type year--numbers that rival the elite guys save for a lot of int's. 3750/30/20.

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Who is this? Best? How many times has he done that? How many times from 30 yards out?

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I'm sure he was generalizing. Best had two long receiving TDs last season. Couple that with his body of work in college, and we can deduce that he has the ability to help Stafford in the passing game. Stafford has all the tools and weapons in place to be an elite fantasy QB. I'm sure his injury risk will be priced into his ADP come draft time. All young players that get hurt early in their careers get tagged with the injury prone label. They all keep it, until they don't get hurt anymore.

I love Stafford in a committee approach with another breakout QB possibility like Josh Freeman. If they're both mediocre, you play matchups. If they both breakout you trade one for help somewhere else. If only one breaks out you have a bye week filler and no weekly matchup headache.

'Addai said:

'Jercules said:

He's a guy to draft, for the simple reason that his ceiling is so high. He's got natural ability, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, and the secret weapon of any stud QB--a RB who can rip a checkdown for 80 yards. In addition, his team's only prayer of winning football games is through offense (Silver Crush my ###).

He's had injuries, but it doesn't seem like anything chronic and he's got the character to condition himself properly (which is all you can look for, IMO. The 'injury-prone' label is a notorious myth).

I see him having an Eli-type year--numbers that rival the elite guys save for a lot of int's. 3750/30/20.

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Who is this? Best? How many times has he done that? How many times from 30 yards out?

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Link.http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2010091906/2010/REG2/eagles@lions/watch

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2010091906/2010/REG2/eagles@lions/watch10 games with rushes of 30 yards or more, 2 receiving touchdowns of 50 (75 long) yards or more. This in his first year and an injury plagued second half of the season.I'm comfortable saying - yes, Best is a RB that can rip a checkdown for 80 yards.

500 attempts x 7.5 ypa = 3750 yards

28 TDs, 13 INTs

As a long time SEC guy, I have been a fan of Matt Stafford for a while. He was very highly recruited out of Highland Park Hig School in Dallas, after he led his high school team to a perfect 15-0 record and won the Texas 4A Division 1 State Championship as a senior. According to Wikipedia, Mel Kiper tabbed Stafford as a future #1 NFL Pick befoe he ever played a game at Georgia.

In his three seasons at Georgia, his completion percentage increased every year from 52.% as a freshamn to 61.5% as a junior. Similarly, TDs increased, interceptions decreased, and QB rating improved. Although he only played tthree seasons for the Bulldogs, he was in thier off-season program for the full three years and started in the 4th game of the season as a Freshamn.

He was drafted first overall by the Detroit Lions as Coach Jim Schwartz first ever selection in 2009. He was named the starter before the season began, but played only ten games. On November 24th he re-entered the game after suffering a shoulder separation and threw his 5th TD of the day leading Detroit to a 38-37 win over Cleveland. He ended his season being placed on IR in December. In 2010, he suffered a similar fate again injurying his shoulder in week one and again in week 9, after playing in only three games. His shoulder surgery was during the 2010 season and he has had over six months to rehab.

His stats have not yet been remarkable, but he did show improvement and had a few monster games:

09 - 10 gms 201 of 377 53.3% 2267 yds 6.0 ypa 13 TDs 20 ints 21 runs 108 yds & 2 TDs

10 - 3 gms 57 of 96 59.4% 535 yds 5.6 ypa 6 TDs 1 ints 4 runs 11 yds & 1 TD

He has excellent receivers including Calvin Johnson, Jahvid Best, Brandon Pettigrew, and the Lions drafted speedster Titus Young who averaged 15.0 ypr over his career at Boise State and scored 25 TDs. Coach Schwarts has his team on the move and I think that their offense will be improved over a year ago when they were not bad.

I am persuaded to follow the heritage out of high school and combine that with a Coach I believe will use the weapons he personally drafted to lead to an outstanding season for a still very young (23) Matt Stafford.

Matt Stafford 16 gms 350 ou of 580 60.3% 3944 yds 6.8 ypa 24 TDs 14 ints 40 runs 90 yds 1 TD

I won't put any numbers down, but he's immensely talented and has the best young core group of skill players in the NFL. While he may be a bit boom/bust, he has top 5 potential and could be seen as a real fantasy steal by the year's end.

Already have him in my dynasty league but who will be his backup? Hill? isn't he a FA? I would like to pick up the back up just in case.

Boom or bust year for Matthew Stafford. There's hasn't been this much hype surrounding the Lions in a LONG time. Part of the hype is the idea that Matthew Stafford can stay healthy for most of the season and the Lions will finally be clicking on all cylinders. According to reports, Stafford has bulked up some, making him a little more durable in the upper body.Those same types of reports say that he's throwing the ball very well and that he'll be 100 percent healthy headed into the season. You know the Lions will be extra careful with Stafford all preseason long, including those preseason games.

I'm drinking the glass half full version of Matthew Stafford for one more season. I see talent in the guy, I see a guy who wants to lead a team, I see fire and competitiveness in him when he's out there, I'm still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt in terms of not labeling him has fragile or damaged goods. I think he's in for a solid season, that the Lions will be sniffing playoffs and that the Detroit Lions will have a QB the rest of the league is talking about.

3850 yards, 27 Td's and 14 Int's, 75 yards rushing, 1 TD

I've watched every snap that he has had in his NFL carrier. Including the plays where he's been injured. I'm one of the guys that think that his shoulder injuries wont be an issue going into the future. It can happen to anyone and the fact that it happened to him two years in a row was a fluke IMO. When he is out on the field he plays very well. He's left a very good impression on me. IMO, if I am right about his injury issues. I think he will be a top 5 QB in the league. I'm going to predict that he starts every game that the NFL plays this season.

16 games - 4029 yards - 32 TD'S - 14 INT'S

I'm confident enough in Stafford's future that I traded away Mike Vick. So I put my money where my mouth is on this one!

Wow, a staff ranking of 13. This guy has to be the most overhyped fantasy player of 2011. I can throw this glass man farther than his career yards per attempt. Given his high price, his inflated production (tons of throws w/a low ypa), and his injury risk, this guy is an easy pass.

Speaking of an easy pass, I'm going to take a pass on projections for him. I mean, what are the chances he plays 16 games anyway? But these 4k yard projections are pretty funny for a guy who has only thrown for over 250 yards twice. And he's only thrown the ball under 30 times twice. That's all sorts of messed up.

'FF Ninja said:

Wow, a staff ranking of 13. This guy has to be the most overhyped fantasy player of 2011. I can throw this glass man farther than his career yards per attempt. Given his high price, his inflated production (tons of throws w/a low ypa), and his injury risk, this guy is an easy pass.Speaking of an easy pass, I'm going to take a pass on projections for him. I mean, what are the chances he plays 16 games anyway? But these 4k yard projections are pretty funny for a guy who has only thrown for over 250 yards twice. And he's only thrown the ball under 30 times twice. That's all sorts of messed up.

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You think he's overhyped at #13? Who do you have head and shoulders above Stafford in that range that makes him that overhyped?Detroit is heading into the season with.-A dynamic 2nd year RB that should be healthy now in Best.-A pound the ball/grind out the yards RB in Mikel LeShoure.-A defense that is coming together with another HUGE first round addition to that front line to pair with Suh. (Detroit O will see the ball more AND might actually play with a lead from time to time rather than trying to force passes to Calvin amidst triple coverage.-We haven't seen what they will do to help protect Stafford in Free Agency.Projecting 4000 yards might be a bit high, but to say he's over hyped at #13 is...well...likely over hyping your own prognostication.

'Scooby1974 said:

'FF Ninja said:

Wow, a staff ranking of 13. This guy has to be the most overhyped fantasy player of 2011. I can throw this glass man farther than his career yards per attempt. Given his high price, his inflated production (tons of throws w/a low ypa), and his injury risk, this guy is an easy pass.Speaking of an easy pass, I'm going to take a pass on projections for him. I mean, what are the chances he plays 16 games anyway? But these 4k yard projections are pretty funny for a guy who has only thrown for over 250 yards twice. And he's only thrown the ball under 30 times twice. That's all sorts of messed up.

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You think he's overhyped at #13? Who do you have head and shoulders above Stafford in that range that makes him that overhyped?Detroit is heading into the season with.-A dynamic 2nd year RB that should be healthy now in Best.-A pound the ball/grind out the yards RB in Mikel LeShoure.-A defense that is coming together with another HUGE first round addition to that front line to pair with Suh. (Detroit O will see the ball more AND might actually play with a lead from time to time rather than trying to force passes to Calvin amidst triple coverage.-We haven't seen what they will do to help protect Stafford in Free Agency.Projecting 4000 yards might be a bit high, but to say he's over hyped at #13 is...well...likely over hyping your own prognostication.

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Those were two separate statements, homey. He is QB13 in the staff rankings AND he is getting overhyped. QB13 is too expensive for him, for sure. But hype is a whole different ball game. There are threads around here where people call him a top 5 QB if healthy. There are posters above who are projecting over 4000 yds. That's hype. Anyway, let's hit on your points. 1, 2, and 3 are all things that are more negative than positive for a FF QB. A run game and a defense are not your friends when you are picking a FF QB (you want him to be throwing early and often). Although, Best (last year's most overhyped player) could be solid in the passing game, so that wasn't as bad of a point as #2 and #3. As for #4, you are right. We haven't seen what they will do. But that doesn't mean we should project him to have a pro bowl o-line, either. Let's hold off on counting that as a positive until something actually happens.Let's list what we actually know:-terrible ypa numbers-historically high att/gm-improving run game-improving defense-injury prone-#1 draft pick-great surrounding skill playersThe guy has shown nothing thus far, but those last two facts seem to cloud everyone's judgment. He will need to maintain a very high att/gm AND significantly increase his ypa to justify that ranking, much less reach these projections. I don't see that happening, do you? Flacco is not a sexy pick, but he's ranked 16th and has two seasons in a row of 3600+ yds, 20+ TDs, and no more than 12 INT. And he hasn't missed a game in three years. His ypa has increased every year (6.9, 7.2, 7.4). If upside is what you prefer, then Cutler and Bradford are both ranked below Stafford. One is entering his second year in a Mike Martz offense and the other is moving into a McDaniels offense that made Kyle Orton a stud last year with a hodge podge of WR to work with. Speaking of Orton, if he goes to Arizona then he's more appealing than Stafford to me. I don't even know where McNabb is going yet, but he was putting up 260 yds/gm last year in a bad situation (that's a 4000+ yd pace). I just don't see how you rank a guy with a significant injury history and poor production above these guys.

'Scooby1974 said:

'FF Ninja said:

Wow, a staff ranking of 13. This guy has to be the most overhyped fantasy player of 2011. I can throw this glass man farther than his career yards per attempt. Given his high price, his inflated production (tons of throws w/a low ypa), and his injury risk, this guy is an easy pass.Speaking of an easy pass, I'm going to take a pass on projections for him. I mean, what are the chances he plays 16 games anyway? But these 4k yard projections are pretty funny for a guy who has only thrown for over 250 yards twice. And he's only thrown the ball under 30 times twice. That's all sorts of messed up.

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You think he's overhyped at #13? Who do you have head and shoulders above Stafford in that range that makes him that overhyped?Detroit is heading into the season with.-A dynamic 2nd year RB that should be healthy now in Best.-A pound the ball/grind out the yards RB in Mikel LeShoure.-A defense that is coming together with another HUGE first round addition to that front line to pair with Suh. (Detroit O will see the ball more AND might actually play with a lead from time to time rather than trying to force passes to Calvin amidst triple coverage.-We haven't seen what they will do to help protect Stafford in Free Agency.Projecting 4000 yards might be a bit high, but to say he's over hyped at #13 is...well...likely over hyping your own prognostication.

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For QBs with ADPs in the teens, Stafford is the one that could be a top 5 QB if all the chips fell in place. Has excellent targets in Calvin, Best and Pettigrew. Running game should improve with LeShoure, and he is a decent receiver as well.3800 yards, 23 TD, 17 Int50 yards, 1 TD

'FF Ninja said:

'Scooby1974 said:

'FF Ninja said:

Wow, a staff ranking of 13. This guy has to be the most overhyped fantasy player of 2011. I can throw this glass man farther than his career yards per attempt. Given his high price, his inflated production (tons of throws w/a low ypa), and his injury risk, this guy is an easy pass.Speaking of an easy pass, I'm going to take a pass on projections for him. I mean, what are the chances he plays 16 games anyway? But these 4k yard projections are pretty funny for a guy who has only thrown for over 250 yards twice. And he's only thrown the ball under 30 times twice. That's all sorts of messed up.

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You think he's overhyped at #13? Who do you have head and shoulders above Stafford in that range that makes him that overhyped?Detroit is heading into the season with.-A dynamic 2nd year RB that should be healthy now in Best.-A pound the ball/grind out the yards RB in Mikel LeShoure.-A defense that is coming together with another HUGE first round addition to that front line to pair with Suh. (Detroit O will see the ball more AND might actually play with a lead from time to time rather than trying to force passes to Calvin amidst triple coverage.-We haven't seen what they will do to help protect Stafford in Free Agency.Projecting 4000 yards might be a bit high, but to say he's over hyped at #13 is...well...likely over hyping your own prognostication.

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Those were two separate statements, homey. He is QB13 in the staff rankings AND he is getting overhyped. QB13 is too expensive for him, for sure. But hype is a whole different ball game. There are threads around here where people call him a top 5 QB if healthy. There are posters above who are projecting over 4000 yds. That's hype. Anyway, let's hit on your points. 1, 2, and 3 are all things that are more negative than positive for a FF QB. A run game and a defense are not your friends when you are picking a FF QB (you want him to be throwing early and often). Although, Best (last year's most overhyped player) could be solid in the passing game, so that wasn't as bad of a point as #2 and #3. As for #4, you are right. We haven't seen what they will do. But that doesn't mean we should project him to have a pro bowl o-line, either. Let's hold off on counting that as a positive until something actually happens.Let's list what we actually know:-terrible ypa numbers-historically high att/gm-improving run game-improving defense-injury prone-#1 draft pick-great surrounding skill playersThe guy has shown nothing thus far, but those last two facts seem to cloud everyone's judgment. He will need to maintain a very high att/gm AND significantly increase his ypa to justify that ranking, much less reach these projections. I don't see that happening, do you? Flacco is not a sexy pick, but he's ranked 16th and has two seasons in a row of 3600+ yds, 20+ TDs, and no more than 12 INT. And he hasn't missed a game in three years. His ypa has increased every year (6.9, 7.2, 7.4). If upside is what you prefer, then Cutler and Bradford are both ranked below Stafford. One is entering his second year in a Mike Martz offense and the other is moving into a McDaniels offense that made Kyle Orton a stud last year with a hodge podge of WR to work with. Speaking of Orton, if he goes to Arizona then he's more appealing than Stafford to me. I don't even know where McNabb is going yet, but he was putting up 260 yds/gm last year in a bad situation (that's a 4000+ yd pace). I just don't see how you rank a guy with a significant injury history and poor production above these guys.

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I fail to see how a THREAT of a running game is your enemy. With no threat, which is what Detroit had last year after Best's injury, everyone knew that Stafford had to pass the ball. Defenses could key on the pass rush and sent more guys into coverage, forcing many 3 and outs and severely lowering Stafford's passing statistics. I happen to think that having Best coming out of the backfield and occupying LB's and safeties will open up the passing game, leading to more ypr and more sustained drives. Houston put up over 4000 yards + ground out 20 rushing TD's last year with an above average offense and fairly weak D. That is more how I am seeing Detroit panning out.Where did I say Stafford would have a Pro-bowl O-line? Exaggerate much? Let's list what we actually know:-terrible ypa numbers-------------------playing from behind with Calvin the lone threat for most of the past two years, what do you expect?-historically high att/gm---------------playing from behind with Calvin the lone threat for most of the past two years, what do you expect?-improving run game--------------------improving to average, up from complete suckage-improving defense---------------------improving to average, up from complete suckage-injury prone--------------------------when everyone knows you are passing, they bring the heat every down. With more threats, teams can't go all out to take Stafford's head off. If they do ANYTHING in FA to improve the line, he should stay on his feet longer. With another year under his belt, he'll develop and get smarter, knowing when to throw the ball away rather than taking sacks.-#1 draft pick-------------------------not getting your point here.-great surrounding skill players-------One GREAT skill player in Calvin, 1 dynamic RB in Best who SHOULD be a great target out of the backfield in the flat and possibly in the slot, LeShoure should be able to gain some short yardage first downs, Pettigrew seemed to do well in his rookie year last year. I wouldn't say Stafford has a GREAT surrounding cast, but it should be 50% better than last year and it is 200% better than what Stafford had to work with in his rookie year.Detroit is a new team compared to what they looked like just 2 years ago. I'm not believing the hype of 4000 yards and 30 TD's. I'm also not believing that Stafford is a below average piece of glass either. You mention Flacco...he's decent, but he's also had a top Defense keeping him in ball games and has one of the best running games in the league to keep Defenses honest, he has the perfect storm. I'm not completely disagreeing with you here that the hype is out of control, those calling for 4000 are certainly optimistic.

FF Ninja, you claim he's shown nothing but that's not true nor fair. The way you talk, you act like it's you or I out there tossing the pigskin, like Stafford hasn't shown his skills during the brief time he's actually played. So he has shown something, although I can see where you are coming from if you're willing to look at this situation with the glass half empty.

Big year from Stafford one way or another. I'm choosing the glass half full version and expect a big year out of Stafford.

'Scooby1974 said:

I fail to see how a THREAT of a running game is your enemy. With no threat, which is what Detroit had last year after Best's injury, everyone knew that Stafford had to pass the ball. Defenses could key on the pass rush and sent more guys into coverage, forcing many 3 and outs and severely lowering Stafford's passing statistics. I happen to think that having Best coming out of the backfield and occupying LB's and safeties will open up the passing game, leading to more ypr and more sustained drives. Houston put up over 4000 yards + ground out 20 rushing TD's last year with an above average offense and fairly weak D. That is more how I am seeing Detroit panning out.Where did I say Stafford would have a Pro-bowl O-line? Exaggerate much? Let's list what we actually know:-terrible ypa numbers-------------------playing from behind with Calvin the lone threat for most of the past two years, what do you expect?-historically high att/gm---------------playing from behind with Calvin the lone threat for most of the past two years, what do you expect?-improving run game--------------------improving to average, up from complete suckage-improving defense---------------------improving to average, up from complete suckage-injury prone--------------------------when everyone knows you are passing, they bring the heat every down. With more threats, teams can't go all out to take Stafford's head off. If they do ANYTHING in FA to improve the line, he should stay on his feet longer. With another year under his belt, he'll develop and get smarter, knowing when to throw the ball away rather than taking sacks.-#1 draft pick-------------------------not getting your point here.-great surrounding skill players-------One GREAT skill player in Calvin, 1 dynamic RB in Best who SHOULD be a great target out of the backfield in the flat and possibly in the slot, LeShoure should be able to gain some short yardage first downs, Pettigrew seemed to do well in his rookie year last year. I wouldn't say Stafford has a GREAT surrounding cast, but it should be 50% better than last year and it is 200% better than what Stafford had to work with in his rookie year.Detroit is a new team compared to what they looked like just 2 years ago. I'm not believing the hype of 4000 yards and 30 TD's. I'm also not believing that Stafford is a below average piece of glass either. You mention Flacco...he's decent, but he's also had a top Defense keeping him in ball games and has one of the best running games in the league to keep Defenses honest, he has the perfect storm. I'm not completely disagreeing with you here that the hype is out of control, those calling for 4000 are certainly optimistic.

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Haha, Stafford apologists are so blind to logic. On one hand you want a "threat" of a running game, but since you only say Flacco is "decent" then you clearly don't want the running game to actually play a role. Because the only thing that makes Flacco "decent" to you is that he is just a 3600/24/12 guy. You seem to think he benefits from a "perfect storm" but really that combination of a running game and defense is what limits him as a FF QB. Had Flacco gotten Matt Ryan's number of passing attempts he'd have put up over 4200/29/15 and would be considered a tier 2 QB. Instead he is seen as mired in mediocrity due to his sub-500 passing attempts. His 7.4 ypa is not elite, but it is head and shoulders better than the likes of Stafford and Ryan. He actually finished as QB11 last year, too. Yet he is going QB16 while Stafford is QB13.I never said that you said he'd have a pro bowl line. Sensitive much? I was making a veiled comment that he'd need one to match these projections. I was also saying that it is dumb to act like "we don't know what they'll do in free agency" is some sort of a positive. I mean, c'mon. Don't put that kind of crap in a list of positives. You might as well add "they might bring in Moss" if you want to start listing off stuff that hasn't happened as positives.Now let's hit on your list of explanation for his shortcomings:-His terrible ypa is because he's playing from behind and only has Calvin? Really? That's the best excuse? Kitna was on a terrible Detroit team and he still managed over 7 ypa. Pettigrew was a first round pick. Scheffler and Burleson were brought in last year to help. Schaub hit over 8 ypa with just AJ and no ground game in 2009 (before you mention it, Daniels was hurt).-historically high att/gm is because they were playing from behind. This is true and it the lone cause for anything resembling decent totals for Stafford. If they get a defense or a ground game and his attempts decrease, so do his numbers.-Speaking of which, you are certain both will improve. Yet you still think Stafford is at the very least worthy of a QB13 ranking.-Injury prone. Some teams throw the ball 600+ times a year and yet their QB stays on the field game in and game out. Those defenses know the pass is coming. Yet the QB stays in and avoids the hit or weathers the hit. This guy is Samuel Jackson in Unbreakable. Props to him for coming back in the game while hurt, but I don't want an injured QB starting for my FF team.-I mention that he's a 1st round pick and surrounded by skill players because that's what everyone sees and is blinded by the fact that the guy has done next to nothing with the exception of one game against a horrible team. And FWIW, Pettigrew is entering his 3rd season and Burleson is seen as a solid WR2. Best is a 1st round pick and LeShoure is a highly touted second rounder. Combine those guys with a #1 overall pick and the FF hype will come. That's what we've got here. An injury prone #1 pick who has been crappy thus far but is almost being drafted as a starter.If you want to draw comparisons to Houston, fine. The Texans' defense actually allowed the most yardage and the 4th most points last year (29th and 32nd). They were 19th in rushing attempts. Schaub completed 63.6% of his 574 passes for a career low 7.6 ypa. The Lions' defense was 19th in pts and 21st in yardage. They were 24th in rushing attempts. Stafford has a career 54.5 comp. % (it jumped to 59.4 in 2.5 games last year if you are comfortable with that sample size) and a career 5.9 ypa (it dropped from 6.0 to 5.6 last year). So even if he could survive ~570 attempts, how many yards would he eek out of that with such a terrible ypa? Or a better question is, just how drastic of a jump in ypa are you projecting? And do you think he'll have that many attempts if the defense improves further and the run game develops?You see how this just doesn't add up? I'm not trying to be a d***. I'm just trying to get the Stafford apologists to think rationally. Neither the situation nor the skills seem to add up to an injury prone player being worth a QB13 ranking. Jim Schwartz doesn't want to throw the football 550-600 times if he can help it and Stafford would require meteoric improvements to become a startable FF QB with less than 600 attempts.I'm not saying it is impossible, but when all factors are taken into account, the guy is overhyped right now (no way he hits 4000 yards or becomes a top 5 QB) and even over-ranked by the staff at QB13.

'FF Ninja said:

'Scooby1974 said:

I fail to see how a THREAT of a running game is your enemy. With no threat, which is what Detroit had last year after Best's injury, everyone knew that Stafford had to pass the ball. Defenses could key on the pass rush and sent more guys into coverage, forcing many 3 and outs and severely lowering Stafford's passing statistics. I happen to think that having Best coming out of the backfield and occupying LB's and safeties will open up the passing game, leading to more ypr and more sustained drives. Houston put up over 4000 yards + ground out 20 rushing TD's last year with an above average offense and fairly weak D. That is more how I am seeing Detroit panning out.Where did I say Stafford would have a Pro-bowl O-line? Exaggerate much? Let's list what we actually know:-terrible ypa numbers-------------------playing from behind with Calvin the lone threat for most of the past two years, what do you expect?-historically high att/gm---------------playing from behind with Calvin the lone threat for most of the past two years, what do you expect?-improving run game--------------------improving to average, up from complete suckage-improving defense---------------------improving to average, up from complete suckage-injury prone--------------------------when everyone knows you are passing, they bring the heat every down. With more threats, teams can't go all out to take Stafford's head off. If they do ANYTHING in FA to improve the line, he should stay on his feet longer. With another year under his belt, he'll develop and get smarter, knowing when to throw the ball away rather than taking sacks.-#1 draft pick-------------------------not getting your point here.-great surrounding skill players-------One GREAT skill player in Calvin, 1 dynamic RB in Best who SHOULD be a great target out of the backfield in the flat and possibly in the slot, LeShoure should be able to gain some short yardage first downs, Pettigrew seemed to do well in his rookie year last year. I wouldn't say Stafford has a GREAT surrounding cast, but it should be 50% better than last year and it is 200% better than what Stafford had to work with in his rookie year.Detroit is a new team compared to what they looked like just 2 years ago. I'm not believing the hype of 4000 yards and 30 TD's. I'm also not believing that Stafford is a below average piece of glass either. You mention Flacco...he's decent, but he's also had a top Defense keeping him in ball games and has one of the best running games in the league to keep Defenses honest, he has the perfect storm. I'm not completely disagreeing with you here that the hype is out of control, those calling for 4000 are certainly optimistic.

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Haha, Stafford apologists are so blind to logic. On one hand you want a "threat" of a running game, but since you only say Flacco is "decent" then you clearly don't want the running game to actually play a role. Because the only thing that makes Flacco "decent" to you is that he is just a 3600/24/12 guy. You seem to think he benefits from a "perfect storm" but really that combination of a running game and defense is what limits him as a FF QB. Had Flacco gotten Matt Ryan's number of passing attempts he'd have put up over 4200/29/15 and would be considered a tier 2 QB. Instead he is seen as mired in mediocrity due to his sub-500 passing attempts. His 7.4 ypa is not elite, but it is head and shoulders better than the likes of Stafford and Ryan. He actually finished as QB11 last year, too. Yet he is going QB16 while Stafford is QB13.I never said that you said he'd have a pro bowl line. Sensitive much? I was making a veiled comment that he'd need one to match these projections. I was also saying that it is dumb to act like "we don't know what they'll do in free agency" is some sort of a positive. I mean, c'mon. Don't put that kind of crap in a list of positives. You might as well add "they might bring in Moss" if you want to start listing off stuff that hasn't happened as positives.Now let's hit on your list of explanation for his shortcomings:-His terrible ypa is because he's playing from behind and only has Calvin? Really? That's the best excuse? Kitna was on a terrible Detroit team and he still managed over 7 ypa. Pettigrew was a first round pick. Scheffler and Burleson were brought in last year to help. Schaub hit over 8 ypa with just AJ and no ground game in 2009 (before you mention it, Daniels was hurt).-historically high att/gm is because they were playing from behind. This is true and it the lone cause for anything resembling decent totals for Stafford. If they get a defense or a ground game and his attempts decrease, so do his numbers.-Speaking of which, you are certain both will improve. Yet you still think Stafford is at the very least worthy of a QB13 ranking.-Injury prone. Some teams throw the ball 600+ times a year and yet their QB stays on the field game in and game out. Those defenses know the pass is coming. Yet the QB stays in and avoids the hit or weathers the hit. This guy is Samuel Jackson in Unbreakable. Props to him for coming back in the game while hurt, but I don't want an injured QB starting for my FF team.-I mention that he's a 1st round pick and surrounded by skill players because that's what everyone sees and is blinded by the fact that the guy has done next to nothing with the exception of one game against a horrible team. And FWIW, Pettigrew is entering his 3rd season and Burleson is seen as a solid WR2. Best is a 1st round pick and LeShoure is a highly touted second rounder. Combine those guys with a #1 overall pick and the FF hype will come. That's what we've got here. An injury prone #1 pick who has been crappy thus far but is almost being drafted as a starter.If you want to draw comparisons to Houston, fine. The Texans' defense actually allowed the most yardage and the 4th most points last year (29th and 32nd). They were 19th in rushing attempts. Schaub completed 63.6% of his 574 passes for a career low 7.6 ypa. The Lions' defense was 19th in pts and 21st in yardage. They were 24th in rushing attempts. Stafford has a career 54.5 comp. % (it jumped to 59.4 in 2.5 games last year if you are comfortable with that sample size) and a career 5.9 ypa (it dropped from 6.0 to 5.6 last year). So even if he could survive ~570 attempts, how many yards would he eek out of that with such a terrible ypa? Or a better question is, just how drastic of a jump in ypa are you projecting? And do you think he'll have that many attempts if the defense improves further and the run game develops?You see how this just doesn't add up? I'm not trying to be a d***. I'm just trying to get the Stafford apologists to think rationally. Neither the situation nor the skills seem to add up to an injury prone player being worth a QB13 ranking. Jim Schwartz doesn't want to throw the football 550-600 times if he can help it and Stafford would require meteoric improvements to become a startable FF QB with less than 600 attempts.I'm not saying it is impossible, but when all factors are taken into account, the guy is overhyped right now (no way he hits 4000 yards or becomes a top 5 QB) and even over-ranked by the staff at QB13.

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That is a good post IMO.

Stafford is a sexy pick to achieve good results due to a lot of "surface" factors:

* He has shown his incredible arm strength and ability to drive the ball down the field.

* His surrounding weapons appear to be getting better and he has an elite deep threat talent in Calvin.

* The Lion's are a somewhat "vogue" pick to overachieve this year.

Stafford needs to prove it on the field before I would start throwing around gaudy numbers. He needs to prove he can make the 3rd down throws to keep drives alive to get them in scoring position. He has an arm cannon but needs to be more accurate with intermediate throws. The injury bug needs to be avoided. His surrounding weapons also must stay healthy in order to see good results. We also have to remember that he is a young QB that does not have a lot of experience. Has sitting on the sidelines been a help or has it stunted his on the field abilities. The Lion's play-calling needs to be more dynamic (which means the running game needs to improve to be more effective in play-action). There were too many games last year Calvin was ignored until the 4th quarter.

There are more negatives to overcome than positives to look for IMO. I hope to see this offense make great strides but it would have to make dramatic improvements in a lot of areas to do so.

In most leagues, QB 13 isn't a starter. That ranking seems just about right to me- he has upside to be higher than that, but could also flame out and be a bust. As long as you aren't putting all your chips into him (and you aren't at QB 13), I don't see the problem. I also don't see the point in putting too much stock in his numbers so far. Do you really think it matters much that his YPA hasn't been so great or went down last year? He played 2 1/2 games. Drew Brees had a poor YPA his first couple of seasons as well, it doesn't mean he can't/won't improve on it.

The situation is pretty good and he passes the eyeball test to me, if he can stay healthy he has plenty of upside.

Haha, Stafford apologists are so blind to logic. On one hand you want a "threat" of a running game, but since you only say Flacco is "decent" then you clearly don't want the running game to actually play a role. Because the only thing that makes Flacco "decent" to you is that he is just a 3600/24/12 guy. You seem to think he benefits from a "perfect storm" but really that combination of a running game and defense is what limits him as a FF QB. Had Flacco gotten Matt Ryan's number of passing attempts he'd have put up over 4200/29/15 and would be considered a tier 2 QB. Instead he is seen as mired in mediocrity due to his sub-500 passing attempts. His 7.4 ypa is not elite, but it is head and shoulders better than the likes of Stafford and Ryan. He actually finished as QB11 last year, too. Yet he is going QB16 while Stafford is QB13.

I never said that you said he'd have a pro bowl line. Sensitive much? I was making a veiled comment that he'd need one to match these projections. I was also saying that it is dumb to act like "we don't know what they'll do in free agency" is some sort of a positive. I mean, c'mon. Don't put that kind of crap in a list of positives. You might as well add "they might bring in Moss" if you want to start listing off stuff that hasn't happened as positives.

Now let's hit on your list of explanation for his shortcomings:

-His terrible ypa is because he's playing from behind and only has Calvin? Really? That's the best excuse? Kitna was on a terrible Detroit team and he still managed over 7 ypa. Pettigrew was a first round pick. Scheffler and Burleson were brought in last year to help. Schaub hit over 8 ypa with just AJ and no ground game in 2009 (before you mention it, Daniels was hurt).

-historically high att/gm is because they were playing from behind. This is true and it the lone cause for anything resembling decent totals for Stafford. If they get a defense or a ground game and his attempts decrease, so do his numbers.

-Speaking of which, you are certain both will improve. Yet you still think Stafford is at the very least worthy of a QB13 ranking.

-Injury prone. Some teams throw the ball 600+ times a year and yet their QB stays on the field game in and game out. Those defenses know the pass is coming. Yet the QB stays in and avoids the hit or weathers the hit. This guy is Samuel Jackson in Unbreakable. Props to him for coming back in the game while hurt, but I don't want an injured QB starting for my FF team.

-I mention that he's a 1st round pick and surrounded by skill players because that's what everyone sees and is blinded by the fact that the guy has done next to nothing with the exception of one game against a horrible team. And FWIW, Pettigrew is entering his 3rd season and Burleson is seen as a solid WR2. Best is a 1st round pick and LeShoure is a highly touted second rounder. Combine those guys with a #1 overall pick and the FF hype will come. That's what we've got here. An injury prone #1 pick who has been crappy thus far but is almost being drafted as a starter.

If you want to draw comparisons to Houston, fine. The Texans' defense actually allowed the most yardage and the 4th most points last year (29th and 32nd). They were 19th in rushing attempts. Schaub completed 63.6% of his 574 passes for a career low 7.6 ypa.

The Lions' defense was 19th in pts and 21st in yardage. They were 24th in rushing attempts. Stafford has a career 54.5 comp. % (it jumped to 59.4 in 2.5 games last year if you are comfortable with that sample size) and a career 5.9 ypa (it dropped from 6.0 to 5.6 last year). So even if he could survive ~570 attempts, how many yards would he eek out of that with such a terrible ypa? Or a better question is, just how drastic of a jump in ypa are you projecting? And do you think he'll have that many attempts if the defense improves further and the run game develops?

You see how this just doesn't add up? I'm not trying to be a d***. I'm just trying to get the Stafford apologists to think rationally. Neither the situation nor the skills seem to add up to an injury prone player being worth a QB13 ranking. Jim Schwartz doesn't want to throw the football 550-600 times if he can help it and Stafford would require meteoric improvements to become a startable FF QB with less than 600 attempts.

I'm not saying it is impossible, but when all factors are taken into account, the guy is overhyped right now (no way he hits 4000 yards or becomes a top 5 QB) and even over-ranked by the staff at QB13.

I wouldn't call myself a Stafford apologist, I think I have a more balanced expectation of him.

I'm not calling for 4000 yards and 30 TD's and a Pro-Bowl invite. I do however expect he can reach "Joe Flacco" numbers if his shiny new toys perform like Flacco's do though. I just happen to think that the team that Ozzie has built around Flacco has him set up to reach his potential. I don't think his potential is sky high or that he'll ever reach top 5 QB status. In the same vein, Detroit has been doing the same as they built a system and find Stafford the dynamic players he needs to lead this team. Flacco has Ray Rice (great runner---catches TONS of dump off passes out of the backfield, Boldin/Mason provide two solid and consistent WR's, even Todd Heap is a threat when healthy...and a solid D that stops opponents and gets the ball back into Flacco's hands. I just happen to think that the same COULD be true of Stafford in the 2011 season baring injury to any of those pieces. Up to this point Stafford has not had his Ray Rice/Willis MaGahee/Mason/Boldin/Heap, and solid D.....he has had Calvin (double and triple teamed) and an offensive line that can't protect him. I just don't see how Stafford's numbers can't go UP from here...again, I HIGHLY doubt 4000 yards or 30 TD's here....Where would stats in the neighborhood of 3500 and 25 TD's leave him ranked?

As was brought up, #13 is not an every week starter in most leagues. I wouldn't trust him as my surefire #1 QB, but paired with a Flacco/Cutler/Eli I'd feel pretty good about him

Good stuff man...

'rzrback77 said:

As a long time SEC guy, I have been a fan of Matt Stafford for a while. He was very highly recruited out of Highland Park Hig School in Dallas, after he led his high school team to a perfect 15-0 record and won the Texas 4A Division 1 State Championship as a senior. According to Wikipedia, Mel Kiper tabbed Stafford as a future #1 NFL Pick befoe he ever played a game at Georgia.In his three seasons at Georgia, his completion percentage increased every year from 52.% as a freshamn to 61.5% as a junior. Similarly, TDs increased, interceptions decreased, and QB rating improved. Although he only played tthree seasons for the Bulldogs, he was in thier off-season program for the full three years and started in the 4th game of the season as a Freshamn.He was drafted first overall by the Detroit Lions as Coach Jim Schwartz first ever selection in 2009. He was named the starter before the season began, but played only ten games. On November 24th he re-entered the game after suffering a shoulder separation and threw his 5th TD of the day leading Detroit to a 38-37 win over Cleveland. He ended his season being placed on IR in December. In 2010, he suffered a similar fate again injurying his shoulder in week one and again in week 9, after playing in only three games. His shoulder surgery was during the 2010 season and he has had over six months to rehab.His stats have not yet been remarkable, but he did show improvement and had a few monster games:09 - 10 gms 201 of 377 53.3% 2267 yds 6.0 ypa 13 TDs 20 ints 21 runs 108 yds & 2 TDs10 - 3 gms 57 of 96 59.4% 535 yds 5.6 ypa 6 TDs 1 ints 4 runs 11 yds & 1 TDHe has excellent receivers including Calvin Johnson, Jahvid Best, Brandon Pettigrew, and the Lions drafted speedster Titus Young who averaged 15.0 ypr over his career at Boise State and scored 25 TDs. Coach Schwarts has his team on the move and I think that their offense will be improved over a year ago when they were not bad.I am persuaded to follow the heritage out of high school and combine that with a Coach I believe will use the weapons he personally drafted to lead to an outstanding season for a still very young (23) Matt Stafford.Matt Stafford 16 gms 350 ou of 580 60.3% 3944 yds 6.8 ypa 24 TDs 14 ints 40 runs 90 yds 1 TD

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IF he plays a full year, those numbers look about right to me. Good D will give him some good scoring opportunities also, but even with that it is hard to project more than 24 td passing.

Player A

16 326 575 56.7 3,739 6.5 26 28 71.2

Player B

13 258 473 54.5 2,802 5.92 19 21 67.1

Player A obviously sucks, he only averaged 6.5 ypa and threw 2 less TD's than picks while having a passer rating around 70. Clearly, a cull to be avoided looking forward.

Player B is worse, by every metric comparing the two, so he definitely is overhyped.

Player A = Peyton's rookie year.

Player B= Stafford's first two abbreviated years.

Way, way, way too early to be making any claims about Stafford, one way or the other.

I don't think Stafford plays 16 games but if he did, I'll throw out numbers respectively less than Peyton's second season.

3800+ yards, 25 TD, 18 picks

I kept Stafford in a league that I was allowed to keep 8 players based on my finish last year. Peyton is my starter, but I feel that Stafford has a future as a QB1. His pedigree from college showed he can put up numbers and has the physical tools. Lions are helping with improving the offense around him and the OC has shown in the past QBs can put up numbers. This should be a year he shows more improvement, but I think next year is his breakout season.

Injuries are going to happen and sometimes they are streaky with a player.If it is true that he added muscle his body is getting into better shape to take the grind that the NFL offers.

'drater said:

Player A16 326 575 56.7 3,739 6.5 26 28 71.2Player B13 258 473 54.5 2,802 5.92 19 21 67.1Player A obviously sucks, he only averaged 6.5 ypa and threw 2 less TD's than picks while having a passer rating around 70. Clearly, a cull to be avoided looking forward.Player B is worse, by every metric comparing the two, so he definitely is overhyped.Player A = Peyton's rookie year.Player B= Stafford's first two abbreviated years.Way, way, way too early to be making any claims about Stafford, one way or the other.I don't think Stafford plays 16 games but if he did, I'll throw out numbers respectively less than Peyton's second season.3800+ yards, 25 TD, 18 picks

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I don't understand the point of this comparison at all. Why are you comparing Stafford's first two seasons to Peyton's rookie season? What is that supposed to illustrate?No one has said Stafford is going to be the next Manning, nor has anyone said he is going to be garbage for the rest of his career. I think the focus of this thread is on what he's done so far and what can be reasonably expected in 2011.

Like everyone else said - boom or bust. After watching the New England game the kid has some serious skills. Question is, can he stay healthy and can his play makers stay healthy? CJ and JB?

I hope so.

3500 yards 30 td 12 ints

Don't let the man of glass rush the ball at all.

This is some very intelligent commentary pro and con here but all I know is last year:

Stafford starts the season in Chicago, goes 11 for 15 (and maybe even staked the Lions to a lead?, but yes gets hurt).

He comes back, admittedly vs a mediocre Washington at home but puts up 4 TD's, and pulls in a win, no small feat in DET.

Next week, at home vs an excellent NY Jets defense and he puts up 3 TD's and nearly eeks out a win against a much superior opponent.

All I know is this guy is a player, he produces FF-wise & football-wise when he's playing, and you need to take risks to win at FF. If you load up on RB's or WR's you have to take a chance at QB, and after the usual suspects I don't know who I'd rather take a chance on.

What do you guys think about waiting on quarterbacks and going with Stafford as your QB1???

'AtomicDogg97 said:

What do you guys think about waiting on quarterbacks and going with Stafford as your QB1???

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It could work, but there are some obvious risks. First of all, he's being targeted by a bunch of people, so you have to reach to make sure you get him. It's very possible that the B Roeth or Matt Ryan owner is also planning to take Stafford and could snatch him a pick before you. What's the backup plan then? Bradford and Orton?Then there's the injury risk. You have to get a viable backup to protect against the realistic chance that he misses a big chunk of games. I preferred drafting two weeks ago when you could get Stafford at backup prices to pair with B Roeth. Now he's being drafted in the top ten (often before Ryan) in many drafts. All that said, I would be comfortable starting the season in a 12 team league with Stafford and Bradford as my QBs as long as I had significant RB strength to show for it.

1500 yards/12 TD/8 INT

'Air Stich said:

'AtomicDogg97 said:

What do you guys think about waiting on quarterbacks and going with Stafford as your QB1???

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It could work, but there are some obvious risks. First of all, he's being targeted by a bunch of people, so you have to reach to make sure you get him. It's very possible that the B Roeth or Matt Ryan owner is also planning to take Stafford and could snatch him a pick before you. What's the backup plan then? Bradford and Orton?Then there's the injury risk. You have to get a viable backup to protect against the realistic chance that he misses a big chunk of games. I preferred drafting two weeks ago when you could get Stafford at backup prices to pair with B Roeth. Now he's being drafted in the top ten (often before Ryan) in many drafts. All that said, I would be comfortable starting the season in a 12 team league with Stafford and Bradford as my QBs as long as I had significant RB strength to show for it.

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I did exactly this... Drafted Big Ben in round 6, Stafford in round 8 while a bunch of teams were still waiting on QBs. ALOT of people grumbled in the room when I made that pick. Also starting Stafford week 1 vs TB over Big Ben vs BAL

The beauty of drafting Stafford is that Hill is actually a very capable backup. If you take out Hill's game 1 stats (where he came in for only part of the game), Hill was the 10th ranked QB on a PPG average in my league, ahead of Schaub and Eli. So you can take the risk with Stafford and back him up very late with Hill and still be OK at that position.

I scanned through the posts here and didn't see anyone address what the true limiting factor is with Stafford. The reason he's seen as injury prone lies solely with the performance of Detriot's Offensive Line. The line has been horrid since he's been drafted. If the Oline hasn't improved it doesn't matter how much he's bulked up or how good of a QB he is, he's going to get injured. He's performed well until he's been injured, no QB could've lasted the season behind the line that Detroit's marched out there in the past two seasons. Detroit homers, what have they done to improve the protection in the off-season?

'FF Ninja said:

Wow, a staff ranking of 13. This guy has to be the most overhyped fantasy player of 2011. I can throw this glass man farther than his career yards per attempt. Given his high price, his inflated production (tons of throws w/a low ypa), and his injury risk, this guy is an easy pass.Speaking of an easy pass, I'm going to take a pass on projections for him. I mean, what are the chances he plays 16 games anyway? But these 4k yard projections are pretty funny for a guy who has only thrown for over 250 yards twice. And he's only thrown the ball under 30 times twice. That's all sorts of messed up.

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Tell you what, I will take the over for 3500. Or the over for 25 TDs. If Stafford is healthy, there is no way he is not top 10 fantasy QB.

'(unwelcomed)GUEST said:

I scanned through the posts here and didn't see anyone address what the true limiting factor is with Stafford. The reason he's seen as injury prone lies solely with the performance of Detriot's Offensive Line. The line has been horrid since he's been drafted. If the Oline hasn't improved it doesn't matter how much he's bulked up or how good of a QB he is, he's going to get injured. He's performed well until he's been injured, no QB could've lasted the season behind the line that Detroit's marched out there in the past two seasons. Detroit homers, what have they done to improve the protection in the off-season?

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A legitimate concern. Detroit addressed every need in the off season except this one. I am still hoping they do something, but they have spent most their cap money already.

'jon_mx said:

Tell you what, I will take the over for 3500. Or the over for 25 TDs. If Stafford is healthy, there is no way he is not top 10 fantasy QB.

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No doubt.

The only reason I can see to be down on Stafford is the injuries, and a valid one at that. Clearly the talent is their though. If you didnt see it the last 2 years, you did this preseason.

The DET QBs composite stats last year were: 4001/26/16 passing and 247/2 rushing. In my league, that wouldve been 284.74pts and QB7. Firmly behind Brees and ahead of Freeman.

Now if the DET passing game can do that with Stafford playing only 3 games, how is their not upside in those numbers?! Obviously he is better than Hill and Stanton. There's a reasonable chance he doesnt play 16 games, but there's also a better chance he plays 13-14 games than 3-5 games, the latter being a major injury and the former being a minor one.

I personally have him projected at 3670/28/14 and 100/1 = 261 which in my projections puts him QB12. However, I have Brees as QB5 with 283pts, and Schaub QB11 with 278pts, so the difference between my QB5 and Stafford is less than 1.5 PPG. IMO, Stafford has a ton of value.

Awesome break down Powers!!!

I pretty much used DD along with my own rankings to do three drafts.

This has never happened to me before. I ended up drafting Romo and Stafford in all three. I got Staff in the 8th, 10th, and 10th. All three drafts were just before the Det v. Pats game.

I've seen Staff's potential before. IMO, he has been very underrated. As my backup QB, I feel like he was very good value.

'AmosMoses said:

1500 yards/12 TD/8 INT

Click to expand...

'AmosMoses said:

1500 yards/12 TD/8 INT

Click to expand...

which 4 weeks is he starting?

I've gladly taken Stafford as my starter in 3/4 of my re-draft leagues, and also took him as my starter in a dynasty startup a couple of months ago. The value I got in the rest of the draft while waiting on this top-5 QB in the 9th-10th is going to win me some leagues, I'm hoping.

Is 265 yards and 2 TDs any good?

IN THE FIRST HALF!

If he stays healthy he's easily going to be the biggest QB value this year

'Raider Nation said:

Is 265 yards and 2 TDs any good?

IN THE FIRST HALF!

Click to expand...

And it would have been 3TD's as Pettigrew let one go off his fingertips in the end zone.

'Kenny Powers said:

'AmosMoses said:

1500 yards/12 TD/8 INT

Click to expand...

which 4 weeks is he starting?

Click to expand...

He might get 1500 yards after week 1.

As we saw in David Yudkin's post about fantasy QB schedules ( http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=623503), we saw that the Lions have the best QB playoff schedule (Vikings, Raiders, Chargers). In standard scoring, Stafford is the #5 QB.

How do you guys see him going forward? If you have a decent backup (Eli, Ben, Romo, Ryan, etc), would you try to trade one and go with Matthew and a WW-level QB for the rest of the year?