27 replies to this topic

[faux_bear]

I am in a 16 team IDP league and I am looking for help trying to identify the safest IDP rookies in this year's draft. Who are some of the guys that you feel are most likely to produce well and least likely to bust, regardless of what position they play? In the type of league that I play, you can be handicapped significantly by making mistakes in the draft, so sometimes I find it preferable to take a sure bet defensive prospect (eg. Robert Quinn?) than taking a lottery ticket on the offensive side of the ball. So who are those safe bets?

[lord_helmet]

Are we talking about the first round? If so, none.

[faux_bear]

Are we talking about the first round? If so, none.

no, not first round. mid 2nd and beyond.

[gandalas]

This season, the one IDP rookie player I am not hearing much about is Eagles SS Jaiquawn Jarrett. All signs are pointing to him having the starting job as of right now, and that Eagles SS job is traditionally a fairly well scoring position.

At LB, I don't see any SURE things right now, it all depends on things like who is re-signed or let go. Maybe Nate Irving in Denver, but I don't know how sure of a bet he is.

[cr8f]

Check this thread.

In a recent draft these are my picks(Irving went at 1.12)


3.05 29. Badgers Foster, Mason TBB LB ® Mon May 16 1:26:50 p.m. CT 2011

5.01 49. Badgers Jarrett, Jaiquawn PHI S ® Tue May 17 8:22:08 a.m. CT 2011 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

5.02 50. Badgers Sturdivant, Quan ARI LB ® Tue May 17 8:29:42 a.m. CT 2011

Sturdivant could have value if he can beat out Paris Lenon and is worth a late round flyer.

Edited by cr8f, 17 June 2011 - 11:51 AM.

[Shane Falco]

I don't see any rookies as being safe especially as the lock-out drags on.
You have some coaches (Like Fox in Den) who are loathe to play rookies anyway. meanwhile guys like Jarrett, Quinn and Foster are sitting around NOT learning the playbook. Additionally take a guy like Foster and there is no clear indication if he will even be starting or if Ruud comes back. The longer this drags, the more likely a guy like Jarrett or Foster doesn't even get a shot this year because 1- no time to learn 2- they bring back the vet because of #1.

[cr8f]

I don't see any rookies as being safe especially as the lock-out drags on.
You have some coaches (Like Fox in Den) who are loathe to play rookies anyway. meanwhile guys like Jarrett, Quinn and Foster are sitting around NOT learning the playbook. Additionally take a guy like Foster and there is no clear indication if he will even be starting or if Ruud comes back. The longer this drags, the more likely a guy like Jarrett or Foster doesn't even get a shot this year because 1- no time to learn 2- they bring back the vet because of #1.

That's true-it isn't a good year for most rookies, and Ruud could be back but press reports think they'll let him go.

John Fox doesn't trust rookies but who is starting in Denver? Joe Mays-Haggan?

It is risky to take anyone early but if one of these guys is there late I'd take a chance hoping Foster or Sturdivant start.

[AmosMoses]

I think the likely starters are:

DT
Nick Fairley - probably won't score many points in your league

DE
Robert Quinn
Jabaal Sheard
DaQuan Bowers - obvious injury issues
Cameron Jordan - not impressed by this guy

LB
Von Miller - probably won't score many points in your league
Mason Foster - needs Ruud to be signed elsewhere
Nate Irving - has to beat out Mays

CB
Patrick Peterson

S
Jaiquan Jarrett

Edited by AmosMoses, 21 June 2011 - 05:23 AM.

[houndirish]

Aldon Smith isn't going to start?

[jdswan922]

I think the likely starters are:

DT
Nick Fairley - probably won't score many points in your league

DE
Robert Quinn
Jabaal Sheard
DaQuan Bowers - obvious injury issues
Cameron Jordan - not impressed by this guy

LB
Von Miller - probably won't score many points in your league
Nate Irving - needs Ruud to be signed elsewhere
Mason Foster - has to beat out Mays

CB
Patrick Peterson

S
Jaiquan Jarrett

you seem to have Irving and Foster mixed up here

[Crippler]

I think the likely starters are:

DT
Nick Fairley - probably won't score many points in your league

DE
Robert Quinn
Jabaal Sheard
DaQuan Bowers - obvious injury issues
Cameron Jordan - not impressed by this guy

LB
Von Miller - probably won't score many points in your league
Nate Irving - needs Ruud to be signed elsewhere
Mason Foster - has to beat out Mays

CB
Patrick Peterson

S
Jaiquan Jarrett

There is more than this

Adrian Clayborne. He has just as good as chance as Bowers. IN fact they could be bookends
Ryan Kerrigan. Great chance to start but could be only good in big play leagues.
Colin McCarthy. Tulloch is probably gone. Who takes the middle. Opprotunity knocks
Marcel Dareus. He is a opening day starter for sure. Just not good fantasy wise is all.
JJ Watt. Unfortunately a 3-4 DE.
Prince Amukumura and Jimmy Smith. ONly CB but both should get chance to go and put up decent fantasy numbers

I agree that unless you need a DE(And most do) that this is not the year to need D. I would expect only Miller to go in my home league in the 2nd round where big play is higher than most. Than the DE's might all go depending on how O sorts out. LB and S is dismal looking.

[AmosMoses]

I think the likely starters are:

DT
Nick Fairley - probably won't score many points in your league

DE
Robert Quinn
Jabaal Sheard
DaQuan Bowers - obvious injury issues
Cameron Jordan - not impressed by this guy

LB
Von Miller - probably won't score many points in your league
Nate Irving - needs Ruud to be signed elsewhere
Mason Foster - has to beat out Mays

CB
Patrick Peterson

S
Jaiquan Jarrett

There is more than this

Adrian Clayborne. He has just as good as chance as Bowers. IN fact they could be bookends
Ryan Kerrigan. Great chance to start but could be only good in big play leagues.
Colin McCarthy. Tulloch is probably gone. Who takes the middle. Opprotunity knocks
Marcel Dareus. He is a opening day starter for sure. Just not good fantasy wise is all.
JJ Watt. Unfortunately a 3-4 DE.
Prince Amukumura and Jimmy Smith. ONly CB but both should get chance to go and put up decent fantasy numbers

I agree that unless you need a DE(And most do) that this is not the year to need D. I would expect only Miller to go in my home league in the 2nd round where big play is higher than most. Than the DE's might all go depending on how O sorts out. LB and S is dismal looking.

I knew I'd leave off some, out of incompetence and disinterest.

I don't think Smith will beat out both Webb and Foxworth, but that argument may not even be worth having, since I'm certain Smith will get plenty of time anyway, same for Amukamara vs the NYG's starters.

[houndirish]

I tend to agree with the previous poster that Amukamura is likely not the #1 or 2 CB for the Giants this year but should beat out Aaron Ross for the nickel pretty soon.

[JOBOOZOSO]

Trust history. Remember the hype surrounding Phillip Dillard? Martez Wilson, Mason Foster, Justin Houston, and Nate Irving all fall into the same category; players drafted after the second round who have a perceived opportunity to shine. Like Dillard, if they were that talented they would have been drafted higher!

Over the past five seasons, the stats say there is only a 2% chance you have at one of these guys being a serviceable backup.

In Re-Draft leagues, history says you're wasting a pick on these guys. Target your offense once the 1st and 2nd rd LB's are gone.

Edited by JOBOOZOSO, 22 June 2011 - 07:26 AM.

[AmosMoses]

Trust history. Remember the hype surrounding Phillip Dillard? Martez Wilson, Mason Foster, Justin Houston, and Nate Irving all fall into the same category; players drafted after the second round who have a perceived opportunity to shine. Like Dillard, if they were that talented they would have been drafted higher!

Over the past five seasons, the stats say there is only a 2% chance you have at one of these guys being a serviceable backup.

In Re-Draft leagues, history says you're wasting a pick on these guys. Target your offense once the 1st and 2nd rd LB's are gone.

I had hoped you were going to give some actual stats, but it appears your links are broken.

[JOBOOZOSO]

I had hoped you were going to give some actual stats, but it appears your links are broken.

Those weren't links. I was just highlighting.

Link here

Edited by JOBOOZOSO, 22 June 2011 - 08:53 PM.

[Polyethylene Bag]

Trust history. Remember the hype surrounding Phillip Dillard? Martez Wilson, Mason Foster, Justin Houston, and Nate Irving all fall into the same category; players drafted after the second round who have a perceived opportunity to shine. Like Dillard, if they were that talented they would have been drafted higher!

Over the past five seasons, the stats say there is only a 2% chance you have at one of these guys being a serviceable backup.

In Re-Draft leagues, history says you're wasting a pick on these guys. Target your offense once the 1st and 2nd rd LB's are gone.

Nate Irving was 3 picks removed from the 2nd round. I don't think it's reasonable to lump him in with every other LB that has been drafted after the 2nd round. It makes more sense to consider him as being drafted in the 2nd round when estimating his probability of success.

[cr8f]

Dillard was a 4th, but Giants LB'ers haven't been good fantasy players lately.

Levy, Session and Desmond Bishop(6th) were drafted after the 2nd. Ingram, james Anderson and Morrison were all 3rds.

There are always good and bad examples of picking LB'ers later (as many early picks fail as well).

Look at Rivers and AJ Hawk.

[JOBOOZOSO]

Stop manipulating history. That's like saying Abraham Lincoln was going to grab a soda but his wife had to tell him some ridiculous story, so he really should have never been shot.

Martez Wilson, Mason Foster, Justin Houston, and Nate Irving were all drafted after the second round, and history says they make lousy acquisitions in Re-Draft leagues.

[AmosMoses]

Stop manipulating history. That's like saying Abraham Lincoln was going to grab a soda but his wife had to tell him some ridiculous story, so he really should have never been shot.

Martez Wilson, Mason Foster, Justin Houston, and Nate Irving were all drafted after the second round, and history says they make lousy acquisitions in Re-Draft leagues.

You listed a bunch of 3rd round LBs and are lumping them in with all LBs drafted after round 2. You really think those guys are comparable to camp fodder guys taken in the 6/7th?


And why are you repeating this re-draft stuff? I don't think that was part of the premise of this thread. I think most here are thinking dynasty.

[Polyethylene Bag]

The real reason there's such a dropoff in your stats is because you're lumping in all 4-7 rounders with your 3rd rounders. Remove that group and the thirds will look a lot better.

[treat88]

The real reason there's such a dropoff in your stats is because you're lumping in all 4-7 rounders with your 3rd rounders. Remove that group and the thirds will look a lot better.

.

Linebackers drafted after the second round, 2006 – 2010: 125

0% chance at drafting a starter (0 players)

2% chance of drafting a backup (2 players)

2% chance of minimal contribution in rookie season (2 players)

97% chance of no contribution in rookie season (121 players)

According to the data provided, it sure doesn't look like breaking out the 3rd rounders changes the probabilities significantly at all. I'm sure the numbers change dramatically in analyzing 2nd season and 3rd season contributions, but the point stands about year 1.

Edited by treat88, 23 June 2011 - 10:00 AM.

[HittinHard]

I think Ryan Kerrigan will contribute pretty good.

[JOBOOZOSO]

According to the data provided, it sure doesn't look like breaking out the 3rd rounders changes the probabilities significantly at all. I'm sure the numbers change dramatically in analyzing 2nd season and 3rd season contributions, but the point stands about year 1.

open the spreadsheet and do the math - 3rd rd rookies suck as bad as 4, 5, 6, and 7 rd rookies.

Kerrigan is nice option rushing with hand up from the outside

[JOBOOZOSO]

I think most here are thinking dynasty.

Bruce Carter, LB DAL

If he recovers well from injury, he could be explosive.

[KellysHeroes]

isn't Jonas Mouton have a decent chance to start in SD? I got him in almost every league I'm in and seem to be the only player that has interest.

[The Man With No Name]

I think most here are thinking dynasty.

Bruce Carter, LB DAL

If he recovers well from injury, he could be explosive.

Carter twittered that he will be active this week. Guessing he will probably be in most on special teams, but will be worth watching when he is in on defense.

[JOBOOZOSO]

The Buccaneers made Mason Foster their starting middle linebacker in his rookie season after Barrett Ruud moved on in free agency, and Foster was among the many Bucs who struggled through a historically poor year for the defense. After beating out Tyrone McKenzie for the starting job in the middle in 2011, Foster could be in a position battle again in training camp this year but not necessarily in the middle. Some league evaluators feel Foster is better-suited to play on the weak side, and the team has made it clear that moving Foster from the middle to the outside is being considered. Linebacker is one of several spots the Bucs are looking to address in free agency.