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Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

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Thread Topic: Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys

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I think Romo is set for a big year and the only thing likely to hold him back is major injury recurrence

He has the some co-ordinator as past years and better weapons than ever with an O-Line that is likely improved over past years.

The talk of the cowboys running more IMO does not impact Romo much, if at all.

If the D turns out to be awful again he may get a boost from playing catch up a lot, so to my mind thats the major factor for how good his season turns out to be. (In 2010 when Dallas D was terrible his 1st 5 games put him on pace for 5000yds and 32TDs)

I'd expect 4200+ yds 28-30 TDs, ~15INTs on ~550 Attempts. Should be a top 5 finish with potential for #1 overall assuming Vick doesn't play 16 games

 
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Tony Romo plays one of the toughest positions in sports, the QB for the Dallas Cowboys.

I think Tony Romo is going to play well this year , one of his best seasons to date but it won't translate into huge fantasy numbers. The Cowboys will run the ball more than they have in recent years and Romo will put up sound but not spectacular fantasy numbers.

If Romo ends up putting up huge numbers, it'll not be by design, the defense will be poorous again and they can't establish the run when they need to. I don't think it ends like that with Garrett as the head coach.

3950, 27 Td's and 1 rushing Td

 
Romo is being underrated by many. I expect his stock to rise as we (hopefully) approach the 2011 season. He is very comfortable in this offense and has some explosive weapons. Austin, Dez Bryant, and Witten have potential to be one of the elite trios of recieving options in the entire NFL. You could do much worse than Roy Williams as a fourth target in the passing game as well. Jones/Murray/Choice provide a competent stable of RBs to relieve some pressure and keep D's honest, and in the case of Felix Jones particularly, they can create mismatches in the passing game. Adding T Tyron Smith with the 1.09 pick can only help protect the QB and give Romo time to look downfield and exploit defenses.

Romo finished in the top 10 in 2007, 2008, and 2009. His 23.28 ppg average through 5 games - while a small sample size - would have placed him 3rd, behind only Vick and Rogers.

The questions in my mind regarding Romo are not recovering from the collorbone injury. The questions to me are a) will the Dallas D force the passing game to put up big points consistently to win/stay in games? and b) will Dallas commit more to the run? These questions are related IMO, and bear watching what Dallas does in free agency and how the squad shapes up in training camp.

Last year, Romo had 206 attempts though 5 games, which equates to 659 attempts over 16 games! We can't expect a duplication of this, but I don't think Dallas will make enough strides defensively to fully commit to the run or to prevent Romo from throwing over 500 passes this season, a number he eclipsed in both 2007 and 2009 (and keep in mind he had 451 attempts in 2008 with 13 games played).

This may well be Romo's signature season - 7.53 ypa last season (Kitna had 7.43 in the same offense) seems sustainable - 580 attempts * 7.53 YPA = 4367 yards.

32 TD's/ 16 INT/ 4367yards; 100 yards rushing / 1 TD = 346 points in WCOFF scoring. Last year that would have put him between Vick and Rogers as the #2 QB in FFL. ADP is the 5th round - I'm buying.

 
I see big things for the Dallas passing offense this year. For his career, Romo averages 64% completions and 8.04 ypa. This is his best cast of receiving options yet. Dallas used the #9 overall pick on an offensive tackle, Tryon Smith of USC. All signs point to a huge year for Romo.

conservatively 338 completions out of 520 attempts, 4200 yards, 31 TD, 16 INT, 30 carries for 120 yards, 1 td, ~ qb 5 with upside potential

 
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'Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
Tony Romo plays one of the toughest positions in sports, the QB for the Dallas Cowboys. I think Tony Romo is going to play well this year , one of his best seasons to date but it won't translate into huge fantasy numbers. The Cowboys will run the ball more than they have in recent years and Romo will put up sound but not spectacular fantasy numbers.If Romo ends up putting up huge numbers, it'll not be by design, the defense will be poorous again and they can't establish the run when they need to. I don't think it ends like that with Garrett as the head coach.3950, 27 Td's and 1 rushing Td
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:goodposting: This is around what I think you can project for Romo this year. Not saying it cant happen, but projecting a guy to throw over 30 tds and over 4000 yards after coming back from a season ending injury is tough.
 
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I think that Romo is an awesome regular season QB and that is what you are looking for in a fantasy player. I am convinced that the thinking that the Cowboys will be running the ball more is somewhat hopeful thinking by Cowboy fans. The truth is that their defense is not strong enough to provide them a great opportunity to dictate the complete offensive flow of the game. And if their defense does not allow them to run clock, they simply must use their awesome array of playmakers.

Miles Austin is a very good WR and if Dez Bryant can even approach expectations, he is easily equal to Austin. Then, there is Jason Witten who is amazingly consistent and also able to stretch the defense some. Now, let's look at the RBs. Barber may be gone, but Felix Jones, Tashard Choice, and rookie DeMarco Murray are all effective receivers out of the backfield. They simply have more options than the defense can cover and Romo is normally very accurate (completed over 61% in each of his last four seasons).

At a current ADP of QB 7, it seems to me that there are at least two QB candidates currently being drafted at 7 through 10 that are more than capable of finishing in the top five (Romo and Roethlisberger).

Tony Romo 16 gms 350 of 550 63.6% 4,510 yds 8.2 ypa 32 TDs 17 ints 60 rush yds and 1 TD

 
What's not to like about Tony Romo?

Two great WRs in Austin and Bryant....check.

A great pass catching TE in Witten....check.

An explosive RB in open space in Felix Jones...check.

DAL improved their offensive line.....check.

A defense that's likely going to give up a lot of points....check.

Can you get him a round later than usual because he's coming back from injury......likely check.

Best draft strategy for QBs is to skip Rodgers, Brees and P Manning and look at the QBs in the QB5-7 range where Romo lies. You can get close to, if not top production, and get that in the 3rd, 4th, or even 5th round of the draft.....sign me up for that.

Many believe DAL will be more balanced on offense. Maybe that will be true, but their defense won't allow it to happen.. I see Romo having to air it out to win games. He should have a big bounce back year.

4400 yards passing, 33 TD, 15 Int

100 yards rushing, 1 TD

 
I really like Romo this year. I think if he falls to the #8 qb you are getting a steal. Like listed above what doesnt he have that you looking for in a starting fantasy QB.

1 more thing to add from the above post is his playoff schedule. Maybe not against very weak defense but in TB and at home should atleast give no trouoble with weather.

Tony Romo 4500 yards 30 tds 12 ints 2 rushing tds (NFL MVP)

This is his year

 
Just as much upside as the other top tier QBs (outside of Vick probably) and going at an ADP below all of them? Sign me up. Arguably the best weapons in the league and got help on the OL.

4400 yards, 31 TDs, 13 Ints.

 
'fightingillini said:
What's not to like about Tony Romo?Two great WRs in Austin and Bryant....check.A great pass catching TE in Witten....check.An explosive RB in open space in Felix Jones...check.DAL improved their offensive line.....check.A defense that's likely going to give up a lot of points....check.Can you get him a round later than usual because he's coming back from injury......likely check.Best draft strategy for QBs is to skip Rodgers, Brees and P Manning and look at the QBs in the QB5-7 range where Romo lies. You can get close to, if not top production, and get that in the 3rd, 4th, or even 5th round of the draft.....sign me up for that. Many believe DAL will be more balanced on offense. Maybe that will be true, but their defense won't allow it to happen.. I see Romo having to air it out to win games. He should have a big bounce back year.4400 yards passing, 33 TD, 15 Int100 yards rushing, 1 TD
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4400, 33 TD and 15 INT's, those are MVP type numbers. I think sometimes we get caught up in looking at who they have on offense and go a little giddy with it. Look at Phillip Rivers, who did he have to throw to last year and look at his numbers. You don't have to have all pros all over the place to have big numbers.I also think you're a little off on the defense, or at least I'm hoping so. The Dallas defense will return to at least the top half of the league with Ryan coaching the D and I expect Garrett to run the ball knowing that. We'll see, I understand your scenario but I just don't see it like that.
 
'Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
'fightingillini said:
What's not to like about Tony Romo?

Two great WRs in Austin and Bryant....check.

A great pass catching TE in Witten....check.

An explosive RB in open space in Felix Jones...check.

DAL improved their offensive line.....check.

A defense that's likely going to give up a lot of points....check.

Can you get him a round later than usual because he's coming back from injury......likely check.

Best draft strategy for QBs is to skip Rodgers, Brees and P Manning and look at the QBs in the QB5-7 range where Romo lies. You can get close to, if not top production, and get that in the 3rd, 4th, or even 5th round of the draft.....sign me up for that.

Many believe DAL will be more balanced on offense. Maybe that will be true, but their defense won't allow it to happen.. I see Romo having to air it out to win games. He should have a big bounce back year.

4400 yards passing, 33 TD, 15 Int

100 yards rushing, 1 TD
Click to expand...
4400, 33 TD and 15 INT's, those are MVP type numbers. I think sometimes we get caught up in looking at who they have on offense and go a little giddy with it. Look at Phillip Rivers, who did he have to throw to last year and look at his numbers. You don't have to have all pros all over the place to have big numbers.

I also think you're a little off on the defense, or at least I'm hoping so. The Dallas defense will return to at least the top half of the league with Ryan coaching the D and I expect Garrett to run the ball knowing that. We'll see, I understand your scenario but I just don't see it like that.
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They may be MVP numbers, but they aren't that far off from what he's done pretty much his entire career. Here are his prorated numbers year by year. The first year listed, he was only the starter for 6 games. That's the reason for the prorated numbers. The next year is a full season. The next year, he only missed 3 games with the finger injury. The next year is a full season. Last year is prorating his 1st 5 games before the injury in the 6th game.

2006 -- 4280/29/18 (6 games prorated)

2007 -- 4483/26/9

2008 -- 4243/32/17 (13 games prorated)

2009 -- 4211/36/19

2010 -- 5011/32/22 (5 games prorated)

Now, I know that 2 of those seasons are small sample sizes, however, they are completely in line with his full seasons and I think just demonstrate that none of his performances have been a fluke. Only the yardage last year is significantly "higher" by prorating.

In other words, if he plays 16 games, he's a virtual lock for 4200+ yds, 30 TDs, and about 18 INTs. The guy has been incredibly consistent.

 
'Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
'fightingillini said:
What's not to like about Tony Romo?Two great WRs in Austin and Bryant....check.A great pass catching TE in Witten....check.An explosive RB in open space in Felix Jones...check.DAL improved their offensive line.....check.A defense that's likely going to give up a lot of points....check.Can you get him a round later than usual because he's coming back from injury......likely check.Best draft strategy for QBs is to skip Rodgers, Brees and P Manning and look at the QBs in the QB5-7 range where Romo lies. You can get close to, if not top production, and get that in the 3rd, 4th, or even 5th round of the draft.....sign me up for that. Many believe DAL will be more balanced on offense. Maybe that will be true, but their defense won't allow it to happen.. I see Romo having to air it out to win games. He should have a big bounce back year.4400 yards passing, 33 TD, 15 Int100 yards rushing, 1 TD
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4400, 33 TD and 15 INT's, those are MVP type numbers. I think sometimes we get caught up in looking at who they have on offense and go a little giddy with it. Look at Phillip Rivers, who did he have to throw to last year and look at his numbers. You don't have to have all pros all over the place to have big numbers.I also think you're a little off on the defense, or at least I'm hoping so. The Dallas defense will return to at least the top half of the league with Ryan coaching the D and I expect Garrett to run the ball knowing that. We'll see, I understand your scenario but I just don't see it like that.
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Spoken like a true Cowboy fan!DAL gave up 436 points last year, worst in the NFC and 2nd worst in the NFL. Can they improve with Ryan coaching the D....sure, but....average points against in the league is about 320, so I don't see them giving up less than 320. They should be in the bottom half in points scored against. Which means DAL is going to have to score 24+ to consistently win games. They will need to score at least 50 offensive TDs. There's no reason why Romo can't toss 33 TDs this year.
 
'fightingillini said:
'Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
'fightingillini said:
What's not to like about Tony Romo?Two great WRs in Austin and Bryant....check.A great pass catching TE in Witten....check.An explosive RB in open space in Felix Jones...check.DAL improved their offensive line.....check.A defense that's likely going to give up a lot of points....check.Can you get him a round later than usual because he's coming back from injury......likely check.Best draft strategy for QBs is to skip Rodgers, Brees and P Manning and look at the QBs in the QB5-7 range where Romo lies. You can get close to, if not top production, and get that in the 3rd, 4th, or even 5th round of the draft.....sign me up for that. Many believe DAL will be more balanced on offense. Maybe that will be true, but their defense won't allow it to happen.. I see Romo having to air it out to win games. He should have a big bounce back year.4400 yards passing, 33 TD, 15 Int100 yards rushing, 1 TD
Click to expand...
4400, 33 TD and 15 INT's, those are MVP type numbers. I think sometimes we get caught up in looking at who they have on offense and go a little giddy with it. Look at Phillip Rivers, who did he have to throw to last year and look at his numbers. You don't have to have all pros all over the place to have big numbers.I also think you're a little off on the defense, or at least I'm hoping so. The Dallas defense will return to at least the top half of the league with Ryan coaching the D and I expect Garrett to run the ball knowing that. We'll see, I understand your scenario but I just don't see it like that.
Click to expand...
Spoken like a true Cowboy fan!DAL gave up 436 points last year, worst in the NFC and 2nd worst in the NFL. Can they improve with Ryan coaching the D....sure, but....average points against in the league is about 320, so I don't see them giving up less than 320. They should be in the bottom half in points scored against. Which means DAL is going to have to score 24+ to consistently win games. They will need to score at least 50 offensive TDs. There's no reason why Romo can't toss 33 TDs this year.
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I'm the one who's conservative on Romo, so throwing in the dig about being a Cowboy fan doesn't hold water. I just think the Dallas D we saw last year underachieved and they'll look more like the version we saw just 2 seasons ago, I don't think that's a stretch considering they brought in Ryan.I think Romo has the tools to put up the numbers you claim but I just think Dallas knows they can't win the SB that way. If Dallas has to score the kind of points you claim to win games, they will struggle to make the playoffs and definately not get far in them if that's the case which is why I believe Dallas will head into the season trying to play better defense and establish the run. Of course they'll have some big plays mixed in, they have some talent on offense but I'm basically talking about their overall philosphy. It's not going to be some run and gun offense, if it is they'll be fun to watch for the casual fan I guess but it'll be back to the drawing board yet again for the Cowboys at the end of this season.
 
All this talk about running the ball is such an overused cliche in today's NFL. The titans, Vikings,49ers and a few other teams will run alot. The cowboys will not, the jets will. Dallas is built to pass the ball. Why would Dallas go against the passing trend in the league when the facts are they don't have special RBS, their run blocking is subpar, they have a very good passing QB, their WRs, TE are among the best in the league. Dallas is NOT primed to be a running team.

 
'gianmarco said:
'Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
'fightingillini said:
What's not to like about Tony Romo?

Two great WRs in Austin and Bryant....check.

A great pass catching TE in Witten....check.

An explosive RB in open space in Felix Jones...check.

DAL improved their offensive line.....check.

A defense that's likely going to give up a lot of points....check.

Can you get him a round later than usual because he's coming back from injury......likely check.

Best draft strategy for QBs is to skip Rodgers, Brees and P Manning and look at the QBs in the QB5-7 range where Romo lies. You can get close to, if not top production, and get that in the 3rd, 4th, or even 5th round of the draft.....sign me up for that.

Many believe DAL will be more balanced on offense. Maybe that will be true, but their defense won't allow it to happen.. I see Romo having to air it out to win games. He should have a big bounce back year.

4400 yards passing, 33 TD, 15 Int

100 yards rushing, 1 TD
Click to expand...
4400, 33 TD and 15 INT's, those are MVP type numbers. I think sometimes we get caught up in looking at who they have on offense and go a little giddy with it. Look at Phillip Rivers, who did he have to throw to last year and look at his numbers. You don't have to have all pros all over the place to have big numbers.

I also think you're a little off on the defense, or at least I'm hoping so. The Dallas defense will return to at least the top half of the league with Ryan coaching the D and I expect Garrett to run the ball knowing that. We'll see, I understand your scenario but I just don't see it like that.
Click to expand...
They may be MVP numbers, but they aren't that far off from what he's done pretty much his entire career. Here are his prorated numbers year by year. The first year listed, he was only the starter for 6 games. That's the reason for the prorated numbers. The next year is a full season. The next year, he only missed 3 games with the finger injury. The next year is a full season. Last year is prorating his 1st 5 games before the injury in the 6th game.

2006 -- 4280/29/18 (6 games prorated)

2007 -- 4483/26/9

2008 -- 4243/32/17 (13 games prorated)

2009 -- 4211/36/19

2010 -- 5011/32/22 (5 games prorated)

Now, I know that 2 of those seasons are small sample sizes, however, they are completely in line with his full seasons and I think just demonstrate that none of his performances have been a fluke. Only the yardage last year is significantly "higher" by prorating.

In other words, if he plays 16 games, he's a virtual lock for 4200+ yds, 30 TDs, and about 18 INTs. The guy has been incredibly consistent.
Click to expand...
+1, Romo is a beast, I predict that by the time redrafts start occurring in late August we'll see him going in the late 3rd/early 4th, but that's still great value for Romo, who will probably produce similarly to Brees, Manning and Brady, who will be taken a round or two earlier.
 
'gianmarco said:
They may be MVP numbers, but they aren't that far off from what he's done pretty much his entire career. Here are his prorated numbers year by year. The first year listed, he was only the starter for 6 games. That's the reason for the prorated numbers. The next year is a full season. The next year, he only missed 3 games with the finger injury. The next year is a full season. Last year is prorating his 1st 5 games before the injury in the 6th game.2006 -- 4280/29/18 (6 games prorated)2007 -- 4483/26/92008 -- 4243/32/17 (13 games prorated)2009 -- 4211/36/192010 -- 5011/32/22 (5 games prorated)Now, I know that 2 of those seasons are small sample sizes, however, they are completely in line with his full seasons and I think just demonstrate that none of his performances have been a fluke. Only the yardage last year is significantly "higher" by prorating.In other words, if he plays 16 games, he's a virtual lock for 4200+ yds, 30 TDs, and about 18 INTs. The guy has been incredibly consistent.
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:goodposting:Good info here.
 
'Multiple Scores said:
All this talk about running the ball is such an overused cliche in today's NFL. The titans, Vikings,49ers and a few other teams will run alot. The cowboys will not, the jets will. Dallas is built to pass the ball. Why would Dallas go against the passing trend in the league when the facts are they don't have special RBS, their run blocking is subpar, they have a very good passing QB, their WRs, TE are among the best in the league. Dallas is NOT primed to be a running team.
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Because when Garrett took over as head coach, they ran the ball more times than they did with Phillips as the coach. They also have had Romo throw for a ton of yards and it hasn't translated into wins for the Cowboys in the past. If there plan is to just head into the season and try to outscore teams, they will end up disappointed like they have been in recent years. I think Garrett is smarter than that, I think they have a defensive coach who can help get the Cowboys back to where they were just 2 years ago and I think the Cowboys let up less points this year and I think they will score less than people are predicting. Not turning the ball over and controlling the ball should be the focus along with solid special teams and good defense. If you do those things you don't need 4300 and 33 Td's from Romo. 26 Td's and 12 INT's, and 3800 would be more than fine and keeping Romo off his backside.If Romo ends up with 4100 plus yards the Cowboys will only be an average team......and maybe they are, which will actually be a slight improvement from where they were last year.
 
'gianmarco said:
'Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
'fightingillini said:
What's not to like about Tony Romo?

Two great WRs in Austin and Bryant....check.

A great pass catching TE in Witten....check.

An explosive RB in open space in Felix Jones...check.

DAL improved their offensive line.....check.

A defense that's likely going to give up a lot of points....check.

Can you get him a round later than usual because he's coming back from injury......likely check.

Best draft strategy for QBs is to skip Rodgers, Brees and P Manning and look at the QBs in the QB5-7 range where Romo lies. You can get close to, if not top production, and get that in the 3rd, 4th, or even 5th round of the draft.....sign me up for that.

Many believe DAL will be more balanced on offense. Maybe that will be true, but their defense won't allow it to happen.. I see Romo having to air it out to win games. He should have a big bounce back year.

4400 yards passing, 33 TD, 15 Int

100 yards rushing, 1 TD
Click to expand...
4400, 33 TD and 15 INT's, those are MVP type numbers. I think sometimes we get caught up in looking at who they have on offense and go a little giddy with it. Look at Phillip Rivers, who did he have to throw to last year and look at his numbers. You don't have to have all pros all over the place to have big numbers.

I also think you're a little off on the defense, or at least I'm hoping so. The Dallas defense will return to at least the top half of the league with Ryan coaching the D and I expect Garrett to run the ball knowing that. We'll see, I understand your scenario but I just don't see it like that.
Click to expand...
They may be MVP numbers, but they aren't that far off from what he's done pretty much his entire career. Here are his prorated numbers year by year. The first year listed, he was only the starter for 6 games. That's the reason for the prorated numbers. The next year is a full season. The next year, he only missed 3 games with the finger injury. The next year is a full season. Last year is prorating his 1st 5 games before the injury in the 6th game.

2006 -- 4280/29/18 (6 games prorated)

2007 -- 4483/26/9

2008 -- 4243/32/17 (13 games prorated)

2009 -- 4211/36/19

2010 -- 5011/32/22 (5 games prorated)

Now, I know that 2 of those seasons are small sample sizes, however, they are completely in line with his full seasons and I think just demonstrate that none of his performances have been a fluke. Only the yardage last year is significantly "higher" by prorating.

In other words, if he plays 16 games, he's a virtual lock for 4200+ yds, 30 TDs, and about 18 INTs. The guy has been incredibly consistent.
Click to expand...
All I'm saying is it was under another head coach. I just think Garrett will want to run the ball more now that he's the coach. Maybe they won't be able to run, if that's the case I guess Dallas will have no choice but to throw which poses all kinds of problems in terms of keeping Romo healthy but I can't argue the numbers you posted, he's been great during the regular season. I think Garrett knows that but they also know they haven't had post season success and something needs to change, something they can depend on come that time of the season.Dallas used their No1 pick on a lineman and their no.2 pick on a goaline back with Jones, Choice, and Barber still on the roster. That tells me they're not entirely confident on all 3 of those guys and it also tells me they want to run the ball this year, at least more than in the past.

As you can see by my numbers for Romo way above, I'm still predicting nearly 4000 yards and over 25 Td's, so it's not like I'm sayinig 3200 and 23 Td's here. I'm talking about a subtle change in philosophy, trying to run the ball more than they have in the past will result in slightly lower numbers than we've seen for Romo prior to last.

 
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Demarco Murray you call a goalline back? I think of him more like a Reggie bush type of player.

'Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
'gianmarco said:
'Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
'fightingillini said:
What's not to like about Tony Romo?

Two great WRs in Austin and Bryant....check.

A great pass catching TE in Witten....check.

An explosive RB in open space in Felix Jones...check.

DAL improved their offensive line.....check.

A defense that's likely going to give up a lot of points....check.

Can you get him a round later than usual because he's coming back from injury......likely check.

Best draft strategy for QBs is to skip Rodgers, Brees and P Manning and look at the QBs in the QB5-7 range where Romo lies. You can get close to, if not top production, and get that in the 3rd, 4th, or even 5th round of the draft.....sign me up for that.

Many believe DAL will be more balanced on offense. Maybe that will be true, but their defense won't allow it to happen.. I see Romo having to air it out to win games. He should have a big bounce back year.

4400 yards passing, 33 TD, 15 Int

100 yards rushing, 1 TD
Click to expand...
4400, 33 TD and 15 INT's, those are MVP type numbers. I think sometimes we get caught up in looking at who they have on offense and go a little giddy with it. Look at Phillip Rivers, who did he have to throw to last year and look at his numbers. You don't have to have all pros all over the place to have big numbers.

I also think you're a little off on the defense, or at least I'm hoping so. The Dallas defense will return to at least the top half of the league with Ryan coaching the D and I expect Garrett to run the ball knowing that. We'll see, I understand your scenario but I just don't see it like that.
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They may be MVP numbers, but they aren't that far off from what he's done pretty much his entire career. Here are his prorated numbers year by year. The first year listed, he was only the starter for 6 games. That's the reason for the prorated numbers. The next year is a full season. The next year, he only missed 3 games with the finger injury. The next year is a full season. Last year is prorating his 1st 5 games before the injury in the 6th game.

2006 -- 4280/29/18 (6 games prorated)

2007 -- 4483/26/9

2008 -- 4243/32/17 (13 games prorated)

2009 -- 4211/36/19

2010 -- 5011/32/22 (5 games prorated)

Now, I know that 2 of those seasons are small sample sizes, however, they are completely in line with his full seasons and I think just demonstrate that none of his performances have been a fluke. Only the yardage last year is significantly "higher" by prorating.

In other words, if he plays 16 games, he's a virtual lock for 4200+ yds, 30 TDs, and about 18 INTs. The guy has been incredibly consistent.
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All I'm saying is it was under another head coach. I just think Garrett will want to run the ball more now that he's the coach. Maybe they won't be able to run, if that's the case I guess Dallas will have no choice but to throw which poses all kinds of problems in terms of keeping Romo healthy but I can't argue the numbers you posted, he's been great during the regular season. I think Garrett knows that but they also know they haven't had post season success and something needs to change, something they can depend on come that time of the season.Dallas used their No1 pick on a lineman and their no.2 pick on a goaline back with Jones, Choice, and Barber still on the roster. That tells me they're not entirely confident on all 3 of those guys and it also tells me they want to run the ball this year, at least more than in the past.

As you can see by my numbers for Romo way above, I'm still predicting nearly 4000 yards and over 25 Td's, so it's not like I'm sayinig 3200 and 23 Td's here. I'm talking about a subtle change in philosophy, trying to run the ball more than they have in the past will result in slightly lower numbers than we've seen for Romo prior to last.
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Can't we assume that Garrett ran the ball more than Phillips because he had Kitna under center for his brief tenure as the head coach? Every coach wants to have a good running game, but if your personnel dictates that you should throw the ball, it seems stubborn and foolish to be sitting at 3rd and long consistently after getting stuffed on running plays.

 
'gdub said:
Can't we assume that Garrett ran the ball more than Phillips because he had Kitna under center for his brief tenure as the head coach? Every coach wants to have a good running game, but if your personnel dictates that you should throw the ball, it seems stubborn and foolish to be sitting at 3rd and long consistently after getting stuffed on running plays.
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:goodposting:Plus, Garrett was the OC from 2007 to 2010... buying into iwanna's theory requires us to believe that Garrett would have preferred to run more all those years, but Wade Phillips - a defensive coach by background and experience - overruled him and forced him to throw more. Doesn't sound plausible to me. IMO it is much more believable that he ran more last year because Romo was out.
 
Common sense is taking the thread over, glad to see it happen.

'Just Win Baby said:
'gdub said:
Can't we assume that Garrett ran the ball more than Phillips because he had Kitna under center for his brief tenure as the head coach? Every coach wants to have a good running game, but if your personnel dictates that you should throw the ball, it seems stubborn and foolish to be sitting at 3rd and long consistently after getting stuffed on running plays.
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:goodposting:Plus, Garrett was the OC from 2007 to 2010... buying into iwanna's theory requires us to believe that Garrett would have preferred to run more all those years, but Wade Phillips - a defensive coach by background and experience - overruled him and forced him to throw more. Doesn't sound plausible to me. IMO it is much more believable that he ran more last year because Romo was out.
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Agree that Garrett wasn't being over ruled by Wade Phillips on the play calling. Also keep in mind you don't have to hand the ball off to get those versatile RB's in space, and that can greatly benefit Romo on checkdows, screens and dump offs.

You can have a commitment to running the ball all you would like, but when the likes of Vick and Jackson are hooking up 16 seconds into the game and you find yourself down 14-0 before you can even blink, plans can change.

I see a nice year from Romo if his line can keep him in one piece. 4200 yards and 32TD/12INT

 
'IHEARTFF said:
I see big things for the Dallas passing offense this year. For his career, Romo averages 64% completions and 8.04 ypa. This is his best cast of receiving options yet. Dallas used the #9 overall pick on an offensive tackle, Tryon Smith of USC. All signs point to a huge year for Romo.

conservatively 338 completions out of 520 attempts, 4200 yards, 31 TD, 16 INT, 30 carries for 120 yards, 1 td, ~ qb 5 with upside potential
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in 2010, Romo's TD% was the second lowest of his career.last season's YPA of 7.5, was the lowest of his career

his 2010 YPC was also the lowest of his career( 10.8), and this stat has steadily fallen in every year of his NFL career, down from 12.9 in '09, to 10.8 in '10.yikes!

3800 yards, 26td, 17 int.nothing fancy.

relative to his ADP ( he'll be gone within the first couple of rounds), he's grossly overrated, IMO.

Sam Bradford will put up similar numbers and will cost a lot less.

 
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'Tanner9919 said:
'IHEARTFF said:
I see big things for the Dallas passing offense this year. For his career, Romo averages 64% completions and 8.04 ypa. This is his best cast of receiving options yet. Dallas used the #9 overall pick on an offensive tackle, Tryon Smith of USC. All signs point to a huge year for Romo.

conservatively 338 completions out of 520 attempts, 4200 yards, 31 TD, 16 INT, 30 carries for 120 yards, 1 td, ~ qb 5 with upside potential
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in 2010, Romo's TD% was the second lowest of his career.last season's YPA of 7.5, was the lowest of his career

his 2010 YPC was also the lowest of his career( 10.8), and this stat has steadily fallen in every year of his NFL career, down from 12.9 in '09, to 10.8 in '10.yikes!

3800 yards, 26td, 17 int.nothing fancy.

relative to his ADP ( he'll be gone within the first couple of rounds), he's grossly overrated, IMO.

Sam Bradford will put up similar numbers and will cost a lot less.
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YPC is meaningless. Also, his completion % was the highest of his career at 70%. His QB rating was still 95. And this was with a rookie WR as a starter in his first 5 games.

Finally, his ADP is NOT in the first 2 rounds. His ADP is a big reason he presents good value because he typically goes 2 rounds AFTER guys like Brees, Manning, and Rodgers.

And Bradford won't sniff those #'s in his 2nd year. Eventually, but not close next year.

 
There should be a disclaimer in every QB spotlight that says: the vast majority of quarterbacks do not throw every pass for their team each season.

That said, the Cowboys as a team last year passed for 4,042 yards with 29 touchdowns. That was with Dallas throwing the 9th most passes in the league, but they also had Tony Romo taking only 37% of the passes. Meanwhile, Dez Bryant was a rookie and only played in 12 games.

Austin and Witten played in all 16 games, and maybe we shouldn't assume that Austin, Witten, Bryant and Romo will all be healthy this year. But I don't know if that quartet is more likely to miss time than any other QB/WR1/WR2/TE combination in the league. So if you project full health for everyone, I find it hard not to project at least 4200 and 32 for Romo, with the upside for even more.

Last year, I thought the Cowboys offense could explode. I wouldn't be surprised if my prediction turned out to be just a year early, as they seem to have all the pieces in place. Romo is an elite quarterback with elite weapons. Unless his OL gets him killed, he is a steal at his current ADP.

 
totally agreed 4500 32 tds is baseline if healthy.. A year older/better Dez with Austin, witten and Demarco, fjones... Also people forget about Tyron Smith, thats a Huge Addition.

 
I have a hard time thinking Romo's season is going to be much different than last season. He's going to be running for his life back there. Hopefully Dallas has some better pass blocker in the queue because if they don't this team is going to be one of the worst in the league.

However, if they can solve some of their issue blocking, Dez Bryant is set to soar. Austin is a stud as well. I don't know of a better 1-2 punch at wideout right now. Both are true #1 type of guys that can do a lot of damage on their own. The best way to stop Dallas is going to be to get to Romo. If that proves easy, I don't see how he stays upright all season, especially with the concussion rules.

 
It should also be noted that his injury was not a "major" injury like Carson Palmer or Stafford's. He broke his collar bone if I'm not mistake. Painful yes, but remember there was talk of him potentially coming back last season, at least early on in the process before the team continued to crater.

 
'Sabertooth said:
I have a hard time thinking Romo's season is going to be much different than last season. He's going to be running for his life back there. Hopefully Dallas has some better pass blocker in the queue because if they don't this team is going to be one of the worst in the league. However, if they can solve some of their issue blocking, Dez Bryant is set to soar. Austin is a stud as well. I don't know of a better 1-2 punch at wideout right now. Both are true #1 type of guys that can do a lot of damage on their own. The best way to stop Dallas is going to be to get to Romo. If that proves easy, I don't see how he stays upright all season, especially with the concussion rules.
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Was Romo really running for his life last year? He was sacked just 7 times in 6 games despite throwing a ton of passes. Even the play he was injured on doesn't show him running for his life. It was a pure mis-read by a rookie FB, and the linebacker came through the gap untouched. Not saying the Dallas OL is great, but with Free back, the line should be fine. The Cowboys only took 31 sacks last season.
 
'Chase Stuart said:
'Sabertooth said:
I have a hard time thinking Romo's season is going to be much different than last season. He's going to be running for his life back there. Hopefully Dallas has some better pass blocker in the queue because if they don't this team is going to be one of the worst in the league. However, if they can solve some of their issue blocking, Dez Bryant is set to soar. Austin is a stud as well. I don't know of a better 1-2 punch at wideout right now. Both are true #1 type of guys that can do a lot of damage on their own. The best way to stop Dallas is going to be to get to Romo. If that proves easy, I don't see how he stays upright all season, especially with the concussion rules.
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Was Romo really running for his life last year? He was sacked just 7 times in 6 games despite throwing a ton of passes. Even the play he was injured on doesn't show him running for his life. It was a pure mis-read by a rookie FB, and the linebacker came through the gap untouched. Not saying the Dallas OL is great, but with Free back, the line should be fine. The Cowboys only took 31 sacks last season.
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This is why you make the big bucks. I guess I just remember him taking some crushing shots. Memory is funny that way. BUY BUY BUY!
 
FWIW, the biggest pass protection issues from last year are being changed. Columbo and Davis lost the ability to move. Columbo's pass blocking metrics last year were among the worst for all OTs in the league. Tyron Smith was drafted to replace Columbo. If he even provides average OT performance, it will be a material upgrade. Its yet to be seen who Davis' replacement will be. But having watched that team a lot, there was a reason that teams like to blitz and stunt to his side. He didnt have the movement skills any more to adjust quickly. Baring injury, it will be difficult for Dallas to not have better pass protection from the OL this season.

 
'Ridgelake said:
FWIW, the biggest pass protection issues from last year are being changed. Columbo and Davis lost the ability to move. Columbo's pass blocking metrics last year were among the worst for all OTs in the league. Tyron Smith was drafted to replace Columbo. If he even provides average OT performance, it will be a material upgrade. Its yet to be seen who Davis' replacement will be. But having watched that team a lot, there was a reason that teams like to blitz and stunt to his side. He didnt have the movement skills any more to adjust quickly. Baring injury, it will be difficult for Dallas to not have better pass protection from the OL this season.
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Where can I find this information? I'd love to look at that. :thumbup:
 
'Sabertooth said:
'Ridgelake said:
FWIW, the biggest pass protection issues from last year are being changed. Columbo and Davis lost the ability to move. Columbo's pass blocking metrics last year were among the worst for all OTs in the league. Tyron Smith was drafted to replace Columbo. If he even provides average OT performance, it will be a material upgrade. Its yet to be seen who Davis' replacement will be. But having watched that team a lot, there was a reason that teams like to blitz and stunt to his side. He didnt have the movement skills any more to adjust quickly. Baring injury, it will be difficult for Dallas to not have better pass protection from the OL this season.
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Where can I find this information? I'd love to look at that. :thumbup:
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http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/06/13/2010-pass-blocking-efficiency-tackles/http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/06/15/three-year-pass-blocking-efficiency-offensive-linemen/

Columbo is ranked in the bottom according to PFF. last year and avrg for the past 3yrs.

 
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I've pretty much planned my draft on getting him with my 4th round pick. It is, as most have mentioned, the key to my draft. What perplexes me is that it seems many people think this way and are aware he is a big time value, yet his adp still hovers in the 4th round, and he drops into the 5th round a lot. I'm not sure why he's going about 10+ picks after the Manning, Rivers, Brees bunch. He should be/is completely healthy and can easily outscore all of them. This guy seems like a perfect reason not to waste a very early pick on rodgers or vick.

 
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