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Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

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Thread Topic: Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Player Page Link: Jamaal Charles Player Page

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The only question I have is can this guy carry the ball 250 plus times this upcoming season and stay healthy doing it. Assuming he does he's a top 3 back IMO.

1440 yards, 9 Td's. 48 receptions 3 Tds

 
There are two players that I feel confident will have huge seasons this year. Calvin is one and Charles is the other. I'm not finished with my numbers yet, but they will be lofty. Like I said in another thread, I think Charles is the most talented RB in the league. I also think he is going to get alot more touches this year. I know their schedule will not be as easy as last year, but its not terribly difficult either. It will also mean that the Chiefs are less likely to use an inferior talent like TJones.

Not only is he the best RB in the league, but his situation is among the best in the league. Its not Houston, but they have a good oline, a good enough passing game to keep defenses honest and they run the ball a ton. Whats not to like?

 
There are two players that I feel confident will have huge seasons this year. Calvin is one and Charles is the other. I'm not finished with my numbers yet, but they will be lofty. Like I said in another thread, I think Charles is the most talented RB in the league. I also think he is going to get alot more touches this year. I know their schedule will not be as easy as last year, but its not terribly difficult either. It will also mean that the Chiefs are less likely to use an inferior talent like TJones. Not only is he the best RB in the league, but his situation is among the best in the league. Its not Houston, but they have a good oline, a good enough passing game to keep defenses honest and they run the ball a ton. Whats not to like?
Where did you have Charles ranked when he came out as a rookie in 2008 ?
 
There are two players that I feel confident will have huge seasons this year. Calvin is one and Charles is the other. I'm not finished with my numbers yet, but they will be lofty. Like I said in another thread, I think Charles is the most talented RB in the league. I also think he is going to get alot more touches this year. I know their schedule will not be as easy as last year, but its not terribly difficult either. It will also mean that the Chiefs are less likely to use an inferior talent like TJones. Not only is he the best RB in the league, but his situation is among the best in the league. Its not Houston, but they have a good oline, a good enough passing game to keep defenses honest and they run the ball a ton. Whats not to like?
Where did you have Charles ranked when he came out as a rookie in 2008 ?
Please stop polluting threads with your douchery. And get rid of that sig.
 
There are two players that I feel confident will have huge seasons this year. Calvin is one and Charles is the other. I'm not finished with my numbers yet, but they will be lofty. Like I said in another thread, I think Charles is the most talented RB in the league. I also think he is going to get alot more touches this year. I know their schedule will not be as easy as last year, but its not terribly difficult either. It will also mean that the Chiefs are less likely to use an inferior talent like TJones. Not only is he the best RB in the league, but his situation is among the best in the league. Its not Houston, but they have a good oline, a good enough passing game to keep defenses honest and they run the ball a ton. Whats not to like?
Where did you have Charles ranked when he came out as a rookie in 2008 ?
Please stop polluting threads with your douchery. And get rid of that sig.
Thats what the ignore feature is for. He just made my list today. :)
 
I agree that Charles is going to have a monster season. The staff knows exactly what this kid can do. I think he has a realistic shot at 2500 total yards and 16 TDs. All aboard! :thumbup:

 
I've been hyping this kid for the last 2yrs and up until now have received a lot of flack for it, especially on these boards.

I won't get into why he's great, why he will be a top 3 back, or why anything else. Been there, done that.

If I have a top 3 pick this season, he's in there... A top 2, he still may be there. While I wholeheartedly believe he can and may finish as the #1 back on the year, I don't know if I can take him over the "sure thing safety net" that is AP. Only time will tell.

Fearless Forecast

1440-11, 800- 4

 
Fearless Forecast1440-11, 800- 4
Huge Charles fan and multi-league owner, but considering only one RB in the last decade has put up 800 yards receiving (SJax, 2006) you might want to scale that one back a bit.
 
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Fearless Forecast1440-11, 800- 4
Huge Charles fan and multi-league owner, but considering only one RB in the last decade has put up 800 yards receiving (SJax, 2006) you might want to scale that one back a bit.
What RB since SJax have you seen catch and run the way Charles has? He averages over 10yds per catch, and with Jones phased out of the equation, Charles' rushes AND catches should increase.Yes, I know I'm putting him up for huge rec. numbers, but well... I don't see it as a problem for him.
 
It seems that the consensus is that people LOVE Charles and he could be the #1 player. I am no different. I will just bring up a few points.

1. Charlie Weiss is gone, and I think that along with a Matt Cassel regression bring the offense down a notch.

2. The Chiefs took advantage of bad defenses that were beat up when they faced them. This year their schedule isn't that hard, however it is to note for those in the stretch run and playoff his schedule doesn't do him any favors- weeks 11-15- @pats, vs steelers, @ bears, @ jets, vs packers. A bunch of cold weather games and teams that could take the Chiefs out of the game early, so Charles would probably be doing his work in the receiving game for that stretch.

I do not put it past him to be a monster all season including that stretch, but I'm just playing devils advocate. I would not take him over Foster or AP, but at 3 or any lower I would probably take him just based on his RIDICULOUS upside.

250 carries x 5.5 ypc = 1375 rush yards. 48 rec x 8.8 ypc= 422 rec yards. 9 total td's.

I do think he can do better in both yard categories, but I think the 7-10 range is what his td's will be. His upside is probably well over 2000 total yards, but I think the td's will keep him from being the #1 or even the #2 overall player that many predict. He'll probably finish in the 3-8 range imo.

 
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The Chiefs had 556 rushing attempts last year, most in the NFL. I can see a slight regression to the mean on that one as well as Charles' 6.4 ypc. That is not really a sustainable number for any human. Also, the Chiefs will face a 1st place schedule this year. All of these are reasons to temper expectations just slightly.

220 x 5.5 = 1210 yards, 6 TD, 42 catches, 420 yards, 2 TD, ~ rb 6

 
The Chiefs had 556 rushing attempts last year, most in the NFL. I can see a slight regression to the mean on that one as well as Charles' 6.4 ypc. That is not really a sustainable number for any human. Also, the Chiefs will face a 1st place schedule this year. All of these are reasons to temper expectations just slightly.220 x 5.5 = 1210 yards, 6 TD, 42 catches, 420 yards, 2 TD, ~ rb 6
Who's going to get the other 280 rushing attempts (cutting back last year's number 10% you still have 500).
 
The Chiefs had 556 rushing attempts last year, most in the NFL. I can see a slight regression to the mean on that one as well as Charles' 6.4 ypc. That is not really a sustainable number for any human. Also, the Chiefs will face a 1st place schedule this year. All of these are reasons to temper expectations just slightly.220 x 5.5 = 1210 yards, 6 TD, 42 catches, 420 yards, 2 TD, ~ rb 6
Who's going to get the other 280 rushing attempts (cutting back last year's number 10% you still have 500).
I don't know, maybe, Thomas Jones (200), Jackie Battle (25), Dexter McCluster (25), Matt Cassel (30)
 
Thomas Jones (200)
Todd Haley is crazy, I do agree with you there.But Crazy Todd isn't going to get bailed out by fluke wins and a weak schedule this year - and he'll give the ball to Charles because giving it to to Jones (or any other ineffective runner) 200 times on a losing team with the best(?) RB in the league on the bench will get him fired.
 
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Thomas Jones (200)
Todd Haley is crazy, I do agree with you there.But Crazy Todd isn't going to get bailed out by fluke wins and a weak schedule this year - and he'll give the ball to Charles because giving it to to Jones (or any other ineffective runner) 200 times on a losing team with the best(?) RB in the league on the bench will get him fired.
Yeah, I suppose Charles to eat up more than 220 carries, maybe 250 is possible. Jones is obviously not a strong player at this stage of his career, but he did get most of his 245 carries in run up the middle situations which slightly deflated his ypc. I don't think he will disappear entirely, and spelling Charles somewhat allows him to stay fresh and break big runs.
 
There are only a handful of RBs, if that, that have a legit shot at being the top FF RB. Charles is one of them. Ridiculous speed, can take it to the house on any play, an excellent receiver, and has shown the ability to score from close in. KC loves to run the football, so I don't see how Charles isn't a top 5 RB this year.

260 car, 1350 yards, 8 TD

60 rec, 500 yards, 3 TD

 
I've been hyping this kid for the last 2yrs and up until now have received a lot of flack for it, especially on these boards.I won't get into why he's great, why he will be a top 3 back, or why anything else. Been there, done that.If I have a top 3 pick this season, he's in there... A top 2, he still may be there. While I wholeheartedly believe he can and may finish as the #1 back on the year, I don't know if I can take him over the "sure thing safety net" that is AP. Only time will tell.Fearless Forecast1440-11, 800- 4
Me to I have been projecting him to be a top 3 back and before the start of last season got lots of FLAK from FBGers telling me TJONES was the man and charles was a back up.. hahahaa year sorry he is no back up... 1500 rushing 500 rec 15 tds 50 catches
 
I've been hyping this kid for the last 2yrs and up until now have received a lot of flack for it, especially on these boards.I won't get into why he's great, why he will be a top 3 back, or why anything else. Been there, done that.If I have a top 3 pick this season, he's in there... A top 2, he still may be there. While I wholeheartedly believe he can and may finish as the #1 back on the year, I don't know if I can take him over the "sure thing safety net" that is AP. Only time will tell.Fearless Forecast1440-11, 800- 4
Me to I have been projecting him to be a top 3 back and before the start of last season got lots of FLAK from FBGers telling me TJONES was the man and charles was a back up.. hahahaa year sorry he is no back up... 1500 rushing 500 rec 15 tds 50 catches
One person even said based on the merits of nothing except his salary, that Jones would be the man and Charles wouldn't. Obviously, that argument whithered away.I think Charles will be taking more of the RB load, but I also think some of the passes he caught last year will be taken by McCluster. 260 carries, 1400 yards, 11 TDs. 60 targets, 42 catches, 420 yards, 2 TDs.
 
I've been hyping this kid for the last 2yrs and up until now have received a lot of flack for it, especially on these boards.I won't get into why he's great, why he will be a top 3 back, or why anything else. Been there, done that.If I have a top 3 pick this season, he's in there... A top 2, he still may be there. While I wholeheartedly believe he can and may finish as the #1 back on the year, I don't know if I can take him over the "sure thing safety net" that is AP. Only time will tell.Fearless Forecast1440-11, 800- 4
Me to I have been projecting him to be a top 3 back and before the start of last season got lots of FLAK from FBGers telling me TJONES was the man and charles was a back up.. hahahaa year sorry he is no back up... 1500 rushing 500 rec 15 tds 50 catches
:link: x2
 
It seems that the consensus is that people LOVE Charles and he could be the #1 player. I am no different. I will just bring up a few points. 1. Charlie Weiss is gone, and I think that along with a Matt Cassel regression bring the offense down a notch.2. The Chiefs took advantage of bad defenses that were beat up when they faced them. This year their schedule isn't that hard, however it is to note for those in the stretch run and playoff his schedule doesn't do him any favors- weeks 11-15- @pats, vs steelers, @ bears, @ jets, vs packers. A bunch of cold weather games and teams that could take the Chiefs out of the game early, so Charles would probably be doing his work in the receiving game for that stretch. I do not put it past him to be a monster all season including that stretch, but I'm just playing devils advocate. I would not take him over Foster or AP, but at 3 or any lower I would probably take him just based on his RIDICULOUS upside. 250 carries x 5.5 ypc = 1375 rush yards. 48 rec x 8.8 ypc= 422 rec yards. 9 total td's.I do think he can do better in both yard categories, but I think the 7-10 range is what his td's will be. His upside is probably well over 2000 total yards, but I think the td's will keep him from being the #1 or even the #2 overall player that many predict. He'll probably finish in the 3-8 range imo.
this is a great post! your mention of the fantasy playoff run, i.e., weeks 11-15, is very helpful.I'm not worried about the NE game as much as the Jets Steelers Bears and Packers... probably the toughest 4 week stretch you'll ever see..Charles will make his money in the first 3 quarters of the season,but the final month or so, could really hurt fantasy teams during their playoff runs and I think his numbers take a hit against that schedule. 280 carries, 5 ypc, 1400 rush yards, 40 recs, 8 yards per rec, 320 yards, 13 total TDs.
 
The Chiefs had an unbelievable schedule a year ago and squeaked into the playoffs where they were promptly punked out by the Ravens. This year without their OC and with a more difficult schedule, the whole deal comes unraveled.

I agree that Jamaal Charles is a wondrous athlete, but has been historically limited because of few opportunities. It seems like most everyone in this thread thinks that his career is transformed in 2011 and he instantly becomes a bell-cow back. I just don't think that his team's situation or his coach will accomodate this massive increase in carriers that most predict.

The Chiefs in 2010 had 475 passing plays (not counting sacks) and 554 runs, decidedly run heavy. This was in part due to their success on the ground and partly because they were frequently ahead. The year before, they had 535 passes and only 435 runs. I think that their drafting of Baldwin, as well as having another year in the pros for McCluster and Moeaki lends them to a more balanced attack. I also think that the believe and likely correctly that Charles is much better in small doses. Even last year with his remarkable performance, he only had six games with over 15 carries and three with over 20 carries.

Jamaal Charles 16 gms 240 carries 1200 yds 5.0 ypc 60 targets 44 catches 352 yds 8.0 ypc & 7 TDs

 
'wdcrob said:
'rzrback77 said:
Charles is much better in small doses. Even last year with his remarkable performance, he only had six games with over 15 carries and three with over 20 carries.
How'd he do over the last eight games in 2009 when they gave him the ball in large doses?
I think you missed his point.Nice post razorback.
 
'wdcrob said:
'rzrback77 said:
Charles is much better in small doses. Even last year with his remarkable performance, he only had six games with over 15 carries and three with over 20 carries.
How'd he do over the last eight games in 2009 when they gave him the ball in large doses?
I think you missed his point.Nice post razorback.
It was a great post - lots of good reasons (which I agree with) that the Chiefs will run less in 2011 than they did in 2010.This, however, is pure nonsense:

I also think that the believe and likely correctly that Charles is much better in small doses.
Charles was pure badass, bell-cow stud over the last half of 2009 when the Chiefs gave him the ball in large doses. To the tune of 161 carries and 23 catches - AKA 23 touches per game. And you know what? He was damn good in those games too.
 
'wdcrob said:
'wdcrob said:
'rzrback77 said:
Charles is much better in small doses. Even last year with his remarkable performance, he only had six games with over 15 carries and three with over 20 carries.
How'd he do over the last eight games in 2009 when they gave him the ball in large doses?
I think you missed his point.Nice post razorback.
It was a great post - lots of good reasons (which I agree with) that the Chiefs will run less in 2011 than they did in 2010.This, however, is pure nonsense:

I also think that they believe and likely correctly that Charles is much better in small doses.
Charles was pure badass, bell-cow stud over the last half of 2009 when the Chiefs gave him the ball in large doses. To the tune of 161 carries and 23 catches - AKA 23 touches per game. And you know what? He was damn good in those games too.
How is it nonsense? The Chiefs and their coaches saw the exact same games you did at the end of 2009. His point was, in spite of those games and Charles' badassness, the Chiefs brought in another player to take carries and only gave Jamaal 230 carries in 2010.

They, the Chiefs, think Charles is more effective with fewer carries. He's not a bellcow running back. KC seems to know that. If they give him that kind of load he won't hold up.

That being said, he's obviously very effective with the touches he does get. He's definitely a top 10 RB and should be in the 280 touch neighborhood.

 
'wdcrob said:
'wdcrob said:
'rzrback77 said:
Charles is much better in small doses. Even last year with his remarkable performance, he only had six games with over 15 carries and three with over 20 carries.
How'd he do over the last eight games in 2009 when they gave him the ball in large doses?
I think you missed his point.Nice post razorback.
It was a great post - lots of good reasons (which I agree with) that the Chiefs will run less in 2011 than they did in 2010.This, however, is pure nonsense:

I also think that they believe and likely correctly that Charles is much better in small doses.
Charles was pure badass, bell-cow stud over the last half of 2009 when the Chiefs gave him the ball in large doses. To the tune of 161 carries and 23 catches - AKA 23 touches per game. And you know what? He was damn good in those games too.
How is it nonsense? The Chiefs and their coaches saw the exact same games you did at the end of 2009. His point was, in spite of those games and Charles' badassness, the Chiefs brought in another player to take carries and only gave Jamaal 230 carries in 2010.

They, the Chiefs, think Charles is more effective with fewer carries. He's not a bellcow running back. KC seems to know that. If they give him that kind of load he won't hold up.

That being said, he's obviously very effective with the touches he does get. He's definitely a top 10 RB and should be in the 280 touch neighborhood.
Hard to say you KNOW what the KC coaching staff thinks of Jamaal. You say he's better in smaller doses. Then please explain how his carries went from 190 in 2009 to 230 in 2010....yet his YPC went up from 5.9 to 6.4? I could just as easily say the KC coaching staff kept his carries at 230 last year because he was coming off shoulder surgery.

Which makes more sense?

 
How is it nonsense?

The Chiefs and their coaches saw the exact same games you did at the end of 2009. His point was, in spite of those games and Charles' badassness, the Chiefs brought in another player to take carries and only gave Jamaal 230 carries in 2010.

They, the Chiefs, think Charles is more effective with fewer carries. He's not a bellcow running back. KC seems to know that. If they give him that kind of load he won't hold up.

That being said, he's obviously very effective with the touches he does get. He's definitely a top 10 RB and should be in the 280 touch neighborhood.
Hard to say you KNOW what the KC coaching staff thinks of Jamaal. You say he's better in smaller doses. Then please explain how his carries went from 190 in 2009 to 230 in 2010....yet his YPC went up from 5.9 to 6.4? I could just as easily say the KC coaching staff kept his carries at 230 last year because he was coming off shoulder surgery.

Which makes more sense?
You want me to explain why his carries and yards per carry went up? Look, it's obvious that the Chiefs think very highly of Jamaal Charles' talents, but they don't care about your fantasy team.

They gave Thomas Jones 245 carries in 2010. Why would they do that? Is he the more effective runner? Obviously not, but KC doesn't seem to want to give the ball to Charles in every situation. Charles was on fire in 2010, but Thomas Jones still had 9 games with 19+ carries.

All I can really go on is history. History tells me the Chiefs' coaching staff doesn't view JC as a 320+ touch player. I think they believe that if they put him on a pace like that then he'll break down and his effectiveness will be compromised.

With this particular strategy JC had 275 touches, 1,935 total yards, and Kansas City had a successful season. Why would they change the way they used their RBs when it worked so well?

 
Hard to say you KNOW what the KC coaching staff thinks of Jamaal. You say he's better in smaller doses. Then please explain how his carries went from 190 in 2009 to 230 in 2010....yet his YPC went up from 5.9 to 6.4?

I could just as easily say the KC coaching staff kept his carries at 230 last year because he was coming off shoulder surgery.

Which makes more sense?
You do realize his carries were way more situational and spread out in 2010, right? Most of his 2009 carries came in only half the season - more carries per game typically means that you're running out the clock, other team can key on the run, you're more tired that game...whereas in 2010, everything was spread out more. Thus he was better rested, wasn't taking short yardage carries to lower ypc, and he was in the game in situations where the defense didn't know beforehand that he was getting the handoff.ETA: Total carries is a poor stat. Carries per game is much better when you have the sample size we're looking at here.

 
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You do realize his carries were way more situational and spread out in 2010, right? Most of his 2009 carries came in only half the season - more carries per game typically means that you're running out the clock, other team can key on the run, you're more tired that game...whereas in 2010, everything was spread out more.
I'm afraid that you are off base here regarding down and distance usage and you do realize that KC went 3-6 in 09 after their week 8 bye?
Thus he was better rested, wasn't taking short yardage carries to lower ypc, and he was in the game in situations where the defense didn't know beforehand that he was getting the handoff.
Jones had more 1st down carries than Charles did (140 to 108) and Charles DVOA was 54.8 to -4.1 for Jones on 1st downs. Charles had more 3rd down carries (30 to 19) than Jones. As for the last sentence, I'm also pretty certain that defenses kept a very close eye on him in all situations where he's in the backfield. You can pick and choose all day long, but he's produced when the ball is in his hands.

link: FO 2009 RB stats

2010 RB stats

1510 rush yds - 9 TD

47 rept 400 yds - 2 TD

 
History tells me the Chiefs' coaching staff doesn't view JC as a 320+ touch player. I think they believe that if they put him on a pace like that then he'll break down and his effectiveness will be compromised.
Pretty much any coaching staff in the NFL today will prevent a back from getting 320+ touches due to break downs and compromised effectiveness. That's why RBBCs are the norm. KC witnessed first hand what happens to a good back when you overload them with touches like that (Larry Johnson ring a bell?). I don't think it's a knock on JC like you're making it out to be. It's just common sense these days that you've got to split the load up between backs if you want more than 2 seasons out of your best player. As for the coaching change a few have mentioned previously(with Weiss leaving), I don't think it's going to be that much of an impact on Charles' performance in '11. Charles is the best offensive player on that team hands down. If you're the new coordinator coming in, you game plan around that talent, which is your strength. You don't force your best player to adapt to something that doesn't favor his skills. At least I should hope not... I was a big believer in Charles in this thread last year, and I believe in him again this year. I don't expect him to surpass 1400 yards again, but 1200 and 8 TDs on the ground sounds good to me, with maybe 400 and 2 TDs through the air. 1600/10 all purpose.
 
You do realize his carries were way more situational and spread out in 2010, right? Most of his 2009 carries came in only half the season - more carries per game typically means that you're running out the clock, other team can key on the run, you're more tired that game...whereas in 2010, everything was spread out more.
I'm afraid that you are off base here regarding down and distance usage and you do realize that KC went 3-6 in 09 after their week 8 bye?
Thus he was better rested, wasn't taking short yardage carries to lower ypc, and he was in the game in situations where the defense didn't know beforehand that he was getting the handoff.
Jones had more 1st down carries than Charles did (140 to 108) and Charles DVOA was 54.8 to -4.1 for Jones on 1st downs. Charles had more 3rd down carries (30 to 19) than Jones. As for the last sentence, I'm also pretty certain that defenses kept a very close eye on him in all situations where he's in the backfield. You can pick and choose all day long, but he's produced when the ball is in his hands.

link: FO 2009 RB stats

2010 RB stats

1510 rush yds - 9 TD

47 rept 400 yds - 2 TD
I didn't think I said that he hasn't produced. He's on every Z League team I have, I believe, and has been for 2 years now. I don't think you countered the point at all that his carries were much more spread out in 2010. He had about 40 more carries in about 8 more games. He averaged 23 touches per game at the end of 09, whereas he had approximately 17 per game in 2010. That's a 6 touch per game difference. That would indicate that he was used less often, allowing him to be more effective each touch. Which would explain why his YPC was higher in 2010 than in 2009.
 
Hard to say you KNOW what the KC coaching staff thinks of Jamaal. You say he's better in smaller doses. Then please explain how his carries went from 190 in 2009 to 230 in 2010....yet his YPC went up from 5.9 to 6.4?

I could just as easily say the KC coaching staff kept his carries at 230 last year because he was coming off shoulder surgery.

Which makes more sense?
You do realize his carries were way more situational and spread out in 2010, right? Most of his 2009 carries came in only half the season - more carries per game typically means that you're running out the clock, other team can key on the run, you're more tired that game...whereas in 2010, everything was spread out more. Thus he was better rested, wasn't taking short yardage carries to lower ypc, and he was in the game in situations where the defense didn't know beforehand that he was getting the handoff.ETA: Total carries is a poor stat. Carries per game is much better when you have the sample size we're looking at here.
I think you are splitting hairs. In the 2nd half of '09 he received at least 14 carries in every game, averaging 20 carries a game. During that span, he racked up 161 carries at a 6.01 YPC clip for 968 yards.In 2010 he carried the ball 230 times....or 14.375 carries a game averaging 6.4 ypc.

So, in the 2nd half of 2009 he averaged about 5 more carries per game than he did in 2010. We are talking about -0.4 ypc for 5 extra carries a game. And we aren't talking about a slip from 4.4 to 4.0. It's 6.4 to 6.0. Let's be real. That is ridiculous.

All that aside, the major hole in the "less is more" argument is that in the games where he had at least 20 rushes in 2010, he did the following:

22/177/8.0 ypc

22/173/7.9 ypc

21/116/5.5 ypc

Yes...better to keep him fresh. He can't handle 20 carries a game. Why anyone thinks Chris Johnson can handle 300 plus carries a year and Charles can't is beyond me.

 
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Not knocking JC at all. He's an exceptional player, obviously.

There are some lofty projections in here for a guy whose touches will be limited somewhat. The ypc and ypr numbers Charles had last year are going to be extremely difficult to repeat in 2011.

I was a proponent of JC's last year. I expected a big season out of him considering the schedule that KC had. It was absolute swiss cheese. There aren't nearly as many cupcakes in 2011.

 
All that aside, the major hole in the "less is more" argument is that in the games where he had at least 20 rushes in 2010, he did the following:

22/177/8.0 ypc

22/173/7.9 ypc

21/116/5.5 ypc

Yes...better to keep him fresh. He can't handle 20 carries a game. Why anyone thinks Chris Johnson can handle 300 plus carries a year and Charles can't is beyond me.
Again, it's not about what you, or I, or we think. It's about what the coaches for the Chiefs think. Notice that you could only reference 3 games there. Thomas Jones had 9 games of 19 or more carries. Why?Maybe the coaches will decide to lean on Charles more this year? I don't know. I do know though that in 2010, in spite of Jamaal's effectiveness, the Kansas City coaching staff continued to give Thomas Jones considerable carries throughout the season. Are they incompetent?

 
Hard to say you KNOW what the KC coaching staff thinks of Jamaal. You say he's better in smaller doses. Then please explain how his carries went from 190 in 2009 to 230 in 2010....yet his YPC went up from 5.9 to 6.4?

I could just as easily say the KC coaching staff kept his carries at 230 last year because he was coming off shoulder surgery.

Which makes more sense?
You do realize his carries were way more situational and spread out in 2010, right? Most of his 2009 carries came in only half the season - more carries per game typically means that you're running out the clock, other team can key on the run, you're more tired that game...whereas in 2010, everything was spread out more. Thus he was better rested, wasn't taking short yardage carries to lower ypc, and he was in the game in situations where the defense didn't know beforehand that he was getting the handoff.ETA: Total carries is a poor stat. Carries per game is much better when you have the sample size we're looking at here.
I think you are splitting hairs. In the 2nd half of '09 he received at least 14 carries in every game, averaging 20 carries a game. During that span, he racked up 161 carries at a 6.01 YPC clip for 968 yards.In 2010 he carried the ball 230 times....or 14.375 carries a game averaging 6.4 ypc.

So, in the 2nd half of 2009 he averaged about 5 more carries per game than he did in 2010. We are talking about -0.4 ypc for 5 extra carries a game. And we aren't talking about a slip from 4.4 to 4.0. It's 6.4 to 6.0. Let's be real. That is ridiculous.

Yes...better to keep him fresh. He can't handle 20 carries a game. Why anyone thinks Chris Johnson can handle 300 plus carries a year and Charles can't is beyond me.
You're trying to read into something I'm not saying. I think he could handle more carries. I think he'd be pretty darn productive with them. I also think that 5 carries less per game is a reasonable explanation, due to a multitude of factors, regarding a slight increase in ypc. That's all. I'm not saying it means his ypc will go down. I'm not saying it means he won't get more carries. All Im saying is that less carries per game is a decent explanation for an increased ypc. I will say this though. If 20 carries a game means that he gets only a measly 5.9 ypc instead of 6.4...I'd be ok with giving him 5 more carries a game. ;)

5.9 x 20 = around 119 or so

6.4 x 14.5 = 93ish

 
I think they need to find a balance of 09-10. Maybe not 23 touches but give him 20.... if he got an avg of 3 carries per game more that would be about roughly 50 more carries which would still keep him under 300 right around 270-280 with about 50 catches is perfect for a guy like charles 1600 rushing 50 for 500 and 10-12 tds is reasonable for a top 3 back imo....

 
I think what Jamaal Charles needs more then more carries is just to be able to get more GOALLINE carries. I can't tell you how many times Charles ran them down the field and got to the 1 and then they brought in TJONES to pound it in, even though it wasn't easy and sometimes took 3 times grrrrr, that still makes me mad. Given Jones age and he has to break down sometime, CJ2k had Goalline taken away by Lendale for a year so Im hoping JC gets more goalline... 230 carries and 45 catches is 275 touches... I believe you give Charles all goalline and 275 carries with 45 catches which would equate to 320 touches. if you take 275x 6 which is his career avg you have 1650 and 45 for 500 = 2,150 yards from scrimmage... His meager 8 tds were lack of opportunity and could easily be 10-14 if givin more opportunity, which is the KEY.

 
Does anyone think KC signs another FA big back to compete with Thomas Jones this year, or is Jones still the Thunder to Charles' Lightning?

The reason I ask is simply that if KC brings in a FA that is significantly better than Thomas Jones, Charles would stand to lose (or not gain OR simply maintain the same amount of "lost") touches.

 
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Hard to say you KNOW what the KC coaching staff thinks of Jamaal. You say he's better in smaller doses. Then please explain how his carries went from 190 in 2009 to 230 in 2010....yet his YPC went up from 5.9 to 6.4?

I could just as easily say the KC coaching staff kept his carries at 230 last year because he was coming off shoulder surgery.

Which makes more sense?
You do realize his carries were way more situational and spread out in 2010, right? Most of his 2009 carries came in only half the season - more carries per game typically means that you're running out the clock, other team can key on the run, you're more tired that game...whereas in 2010, everything was spread out more. Thus he was better rested, wasn't taking short yardage carries to lower ypc, and he was in the game in situations where the defense didn't know beforehand that he was getting the handoff.ETA: Total carries is a poor stat. Carries per game is much better when you have the sample size we're looking at here.
I think you are splitting hairs. In the 2nd half of '09 he received at least 14 carries in every game, averaging 20 carries a game. During that span, he racked up 161 carries at a 6.01 YPC clip for 968 yards.In 2010 he carried the ball 230 times....or 14.375 carries a game averaging 6.4 ypc.

So, in the 2nd half of 2009 he averaged about 5 more carries per game than he did in 2010. We are talking about -0.4 ypc for 5 extra carries a game. And we aren't talking about a slip from 4.4 to 4.0. It's 6.4 to 6.0. Let's be real. That is ridiculous.

All that aside, the major hole in the "less is more" argument is that in the games where he had at least 20 rushes in 2010, he did the following:

22/177/8.0 ypc

22/173/7.9 ypc

21/116/5.5 ypc

Yes...better to keep him fresh. He can't handle 20 carries a game. Why anyone thinks Chris Johnson can handle 300 plus carries a year and Charles can't is beyond me.
:goodposting:

why anyone thinks we are saying he has to be the bellcow, that poster isn't getting the point... He had 230 carries last year... I think he is capable of getting 275-280 carries with 40-50 catches.... that would put him around 320 touches, which is right where he should be... they should up his carries by 40 that would only equate to 2.5 per game which I don't think is gonna break him Haters, I think people just want JC to fail and think TJones should get more carries... No one said he has to be bellcow but getting less carries then Tjones.... 245??? give JC 280 Jones 190-200 and give JC some Goalline... he would be unstoppable, Kc might have scored a few times when they settled for FGs at the 1 yard line

 
He might be capable of 320+ touches, but projecting him for it isn't wise, IMO. I think there will be a lot of Jamaal Charles owners yelling at their TVs this season when Thomas Jones comes in on 3rd/4th and short. That being said, even if JC's touches increase, his numbers could still regress from last season. The ypc and ypr numbers JC was able to put up aren't easy to replicate.

The NFL is a RBBC league, and the KC Chiefs are a RBBC team. There are plenty of signs that have already been pointed out in this thread why JC and the Chiefs as a whole will regress on offense. Choose to ignore them if you wish.

 
Thomas Jones had 9 games of 19 or more carries. Why?
We're gonna need Robert Stack for this one.
Considering some of the lofty projections in here, I'd want to know why the KC Chiefs' coaching staff decided to give the ball to a player other than Jamaal Charles so often. :shrug:
Given Charles's lofty achievements when given the ball 20+ times it's a great question. What's not good, however, is to suggest that Charles can't 'handle the load' or that 'Charles is better with limited touches.' He's already proved beyond a reasonable doubt that those ideas are hogwash.

 

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