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Shonn Greene, RB, New York Jets (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

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Thread Topic: Shonn Greene, RB, New York Jets

Player Page Link: Shonn Greene Player Page

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Shonn Greene so far is a guy who hasn't lived up to expectation. The Jets want to be a power football team, control the clock and play good defense but I don't think they really accomplished that last year even though they were a pretty good football team. Shonne Greene runs hard and it looks as if he's going to be the No.1 guy going into this season with the Jets but I'm a skeptic. He didn't prove that he was the guy last year when he had the chance, he let an aging LT steal the show the first half of the season and it's worth noting Greene has never played a full 16 game season. In leagues that award points for receptions, lower him even further.

875 yards rushing, 6 td's, 12 receptions for 100 yards, 0 td's

 
LT had 219 carries and Greene had 185 last year. Offseason rumblings indicate Greene will be the starter this year. So, I can see those 2 swapping the amount of carries, and Greene getting roughly 900 yds and 5-6 tds + 20 catches for 150 yds.

 
Greene is tough to project with all the uncertainty for the NYJ. Will Edwards and Holmes be back? That will dictate how much NYJ run the football. The main problem with Greene is that he's not a good receiver and Tomlinson is. I would suspect that Greene will get more carries with LT being more of a 3rd down back. And I suspect that one of Edwards/Holmes won't be back with NYJ, so the Jets will likely run it more.

260 car, 1115 yards, 8 TD

15 rec, 90 yds, 0 TD

 
What is Shonn Greene's ADP for this year?

i don't think i would spend anything better than a very late second rounder on him.

what do you guys think?

 
I am not a fan of Greene anymore and having LT there hurt more then it helped. Greene is a power back and he has been trying to run like LT and it just isn't working out for him.

700 yards 6TD

19 catch for 95 1TD

 
I am not a fan of Greene anymore and having LT there hurt more then it helped. Greene is a power back and he has been trying to run like LT and it just isn't working out for him.700 yards 6TD19 catch for 95 1TD
So you see him getting hurt ? Or losing the starting job ? Just curious, 700 yards seemed low.
 
Staff rankings = RB 20. ADP = RB22 (49 overall).

So right now you can get him way cheaper than a late second rounder. I'll probably try to nab him as cheaply as I can get him. I think even if his stock rises he'll still provide a lot of value. RBs above him (ADP) are Bradshaw, Matthews, Blount, Stewart, Moreno, Williams, and Best. Most of those guys have question marks.
A number of those RBs SHOULD be above him.
Blount is in a similar situation to Greene.
If by similar, you mean they have the similarity that they both play RB for NFL franchises, then yes, their situations are "similar." Otherwise, this is not even close. Blount has shown the capability to sustain his (good-to-great) play for a long period of time, while Greene hasn't. Blount has a veteran RB to compete with who he greatly outplayed in 2010, and who has exactly ONE 1000 rushing season in his career. Greene has not demonstrated that he can sustain his play for long periods of time, Greene didn't even come close to outplaying his veteran RB, who, by the way, is a future Hall of Famer.
Bradshaw is a FA, right?
It looks like he will be, if the new CBA goes through, but even if he doesn't re-sign with NY, he has shown the ability to put up great numbers, even in a RBBC.
Stewart will be playing in a new offense w/a rookie QB.
True, but Stewart's best season came when Carolina's QBs threw 16 TDs and 20 INTs. Hard to imagine a rookie QB doing much worse.
It sure looks like Moreno and Williams will be splitting carries.
Williams has been sharing carries for the last several years and has consistently put up good FF numbers. I believe that all of these RBs deserve to be ranked (and drafted) ahead of Greene. That doesn't mean that Greene won't out-produce some (or all) of them, but that these other RBs aren't mis-placed. As for Moreno, Matthews, Best, etc, I agree with you on them.

 
As a Charger fan and a Greene owner, it really hurt when LT took over and actually looked like the LT we want to remember. But as he has the last few years, he faded fast and looked more like the LT from his last years in SD. Had Green not fumbled and lost his job week 1, we may not be talking about LT...It seems NYJ are putting their faith back into Greene and LT is rumored to be going where he can help most, 3rd down back. Greene is good enough to be a featured back (if he doesnt get hurt two years ago, NY is in the SB not Indy). Now is his time to show it. I like him as a #3 back with high #2 potential.Over two years he has 293 carries, 1306 yards, 4.5 YPCFor this yea, i could see him almost doubling that with the stat line posted above

250 carries x 4.4 ypc = 1100 yds 9 TD, 25 rec x 7.5 ypr = 188 yds 0 TD
 
For whatever reason, the Jets have just not trusted Greene.

A year ago, McKnight got in the dog house early and only totaled 39 carries on the season, but did pile up 158 yards on 32 carries in the week 17 shut-down game. I think that he will stay around and get more carries than a year ago.

Most thought that LT was totally out of gas, but he started strong and led the NYJ RBBC with 219 rushes in 15 games (14.6 per game) averaging 4.2 ypc and also had 52 receptions on 79 targets.

Meanwhile, Greene had 185 carries in 15 games (12.3 per game) averaging 4.1 ypc and only 16 receptions for 120 yds. There has been a lot of talk during the lock-out that Greene would be the main back, but the best I forecast for him is the lead portion that LT had a year ago and I am really hesitant to project that.

The Jets did add another RB in this year's draft and I could see them using all four RBs even while continuing to emphasize the pass as much as the run.

Jets feature full blown RBBC, that involves all four rostered RBs.

Shonn Greene 16 gms 210 rushes 840 yds 4.0 ypc 15 receptions 90 yds and 5 total TDs

 
They are similar in that they are both primarily two down backs in line to get the majority of those 1st and 2nd down carries. They also have capable veterans in charge of 3rd down duties.
In case you didn't get my point, their "similarities" are only on the surface. While your narrow view of things does make their situations appear similar, in reality, they are very different.Greene is going into his 3rd year with the team. They tried to make him the #1RB last year; they let T Jones go, brought in LT for 3rd-down duties, and Greene was supposed to be the main back. He didn't get it done. Now they're giving him a 2nd chance, because he didn't capitalize on his first. Meanwhile, the RB who outplayed him when he got his first chance is still on the team. Blount isn't in his 3rd year with the team, he didn't fail to capitalize on his first chance, and the other RBs on the team are all guys who he has ALREADY out-performed. The situations are quite, different.
One veteran will be 29, the other 32. You might think that stating that LT is a future hall of famer adds credence to your point of view, but when in combination with LT being a 32 year old RB with a ton of mileage who clearly slowed down as the season progressed, does it really mean anything? No. He'll get the playing time he earns relative to the other RBs on the team.
Does adding the fact that LT is a future hall of famer add credence to my point of view? Absolutely, since it demonstrates that he is definitely capable of out-playing Greene (especially when you consider that he has already out-played Greene once for the #1 RB spot). Also, since much of his hall of fame resume comes from his stellar receiving (ie-3rd down) ability, it's doubly important. LT has caught over 50 passes in every season he has played, except for one (including last year, when he was 31). Williams has never shown the ability to out-play Blount, including last year. Furthermore, Williams has NEVER caught over 50 passes in a season.
Also, since when did 11 games count as sustaining for a long period of time?
It's a heck of a lot longer than Greene has sustained any good play.
Don't get me wrong, I like Blount. But while Greene was one of the best at short yardage duties, Blount was one of the worst. They've both got their questions marks.
I like them both, as well, and you're absolutely right, Blount has to improve on his short-yardage running. He looks like he waits too long, waiting for a hole, when he should just try to slam ahead for the short yards. That being said, I think Blount's situation is MUCH better than Greene's. He has a firmer hold on the #1 job (IMO), and he has weaker competition for PT (both 3rd-down duties AND short-yardage, b/c remember LT is no slouch in short yardage).
 
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One could easily argue that Tampa is Blount's second chance since he was released by the Titans... But again, I like Blount, so I'm not trying to make a case against him.
I'm not talking about life chances here. I'm talking about a team (the Jets) giving a player (Greene) the chance to seize a job, and him not doing so. When another team (the Bucs) gave a player (Blount) the chance to seize a job, he responded with over 1000 yards, at 5 yards a pop, in 3/4 of a season.
My "narrow view" is of the simple facts - they are both 2 down back expected to get the majority of those carries, thus they should project out similarly. I wasn't trying to dig any deeper. Your view is solely your very slanted opinion.
I'm sorry, your view is not of simple facts. Please show me the facts that show that Williams is just as good of a 3rd-down RB as LT. Please show me how Williams or Graham is as big of a goal-line threat as LT. Because your premise that these two are in similar situations means there must be "facts" that show Cadillac is as reliable as a 3rd down RB as LT, and your facts must show that Caddy or Graham are just as good at the goal-line as LT is.Here are some real facts:

Did any current Bucs RB out-play Blount last year? No-Blount 1000+ rushing yards at 5.0 YPC, Caddy less than 800 total yards at 3.5 YPC.

Did LT out-play Greene last year? Yes-LT 900+ yards at 4.2 YPC, Greene 700+ yards at 4.1 YPC.

Is LT a better 3rd-down RB (both historically, and in 2011) than Cadillac? Yes-LT career average of 58 receptions, Caddy career average of 31 receptions; in 2010, LT had 52 catches, Caddy had 46.

Did Cadillac perform better than Blount at the goal-line last year? No-Blount had 9 rushes & 2 TD at the goal-line, Caddy had 3 rushes and 0 TD.

Did LT perform better than Greene at the goal-line last year? Yes-LT had 9 rushes & 4 TDs, Greene had 3 rushes & 1 TD.

How is my view "slanted?" These are facts. You say that their situation are the same, because they are both supposed to be 2-down RBs, but the facts show that Greene has much stiffer competition for the 3rd down carries then Blount does, and 2010 shows us that Greene isn't guaranteed to out-play his competition and get those carries on 1st & 2nd down, while Blount has shown that he is better than the RBs he'd have to compete with for those carries.

And what is this crap about how the Jets "tried to make him the #1RB" last year? There was a lot of talk about it in the offseason which may have led to that perception for you, but he got FIVE CARRIES in week 1. That's not trying very hard. I'd say it sure looks like Greene never got his chance.
Well, if it's "crap," then it's the same crap that you're peddling now. The only basis for Greene to be expected to get the majority of 1st & 2nd down carries (as you've posted) is that the coaches & organization have indicated that. The same thing was done prior to last season. Jones was let go, and LT was brought in to back up Greene. Greene was out-played by LT, during TC, pre-season, the first game, and the season. Could that change this season? Absolutely, but to assume it is a given is a flawed premise.
Saying that LT is a future HoFer does not actually mean he can outplay Greene as you say. It simply means that in the past he could. We are talking about 2011. In the here and now, LT is 32 and showed signs of slowing down last year after a hot start. Your point is crappy and poorly argued. Let that one go.
The point is dead on. In 2010, LT out-played Greene. That is a FACT. Could Greene out-play LT in 2011? Yes he could, but neither of us knows if he will or not. I never said LT would out-play Greene in 2011, but that he did in 2010. The facts support that. The point isn't poorly argued, your comprehension of what I posted is poor. Let that one go.
Why are you bringing up number of catches of LT and Caddy?
Because you said their situations were similar, and I'm showing that they aren't as similar as you want to believe. Caddy isn't as big of a receiving threat as LT, and if Blount improves his pass-blocking and receiving in TC and pre-season, it is more likely (not a given, by any means) that he will take the 3rd down job from Caddy than Greene will be able to take it from LT, since he is such a prodigious receiving RB.
He [blount] might not even be the goal line guy. He was given the job last year and didn't do well. I have full confidence that Green would absolutely own at the goal line if given the chance. That is a big part of his upside.
Based on what? Greene's remarkable 1 rushing TDs in goal-line situations last year? Would you care to guess how many career goal-line TDs Greene has? It's ONE. Blount had 9 goal-line rushes last year, with 2 TDs (22%). Greene's had 3 rushes (in his 3 year career), with 1 TD (33%). Yeah, that's a BIG PART of Greene's upside. For the record, LT converted 4 of 9 goal-line opps into TDs in 2010, and the other Bucs RBs converted 1 of 6. So, it appears Greene would be less likely to be the goal-line RB than Blount, as well.

You seem to be taking this awful personally, but the facts don't support your premise that Blount and Greene's situation are the same. Personally, I like them both, but Blount's situation is better than Greene's.

 
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I'm with Mr.Two94, they are pretty darn similar. Two young power backs who should get the bulk of the 1st and 2nd down carries for their teams. I think Blount will have a bit less competition for carries (I like Bilal Powell) but that the Jets have a better OL and have averaged a good deal more rushing TDs over the last 3 years than the Bucs. I like Blount a bit more, but I think both are similar talents in similar situations. In PPR, I see Blount as a mid-4th and Greene as a late-4th.

No player is exactly, 100% equal to any other player in situation, talent, etc. so you can easily poke holes in any comparison. I guess you have succeeded in proving that obvious point here bayhawk.

 
Good grief,

This reminds me of the thought exercise where you take a pencil case, and throw it on the floor.

You may have a bunch of red, blue pens.

A bunch of yellow, blue, pink highlighters.

And a random collection of pencils.

One could group the pens together, or separate the red pens from the blue pens.

One could group the highlighters together, or separate the pinks, blues and yellows.

One could filter out pencils with or without erasers.

Or one could group everything under writing implements.

None of them are exactly the same, and you are both right, they are different in ways, similar in other ways, it depends what angle you are approaching it from.

I think Blount has proven more, and has less uncertainty. If everything falls right and he stays healthy, I think Greene may have a higher ceiling. (remains to be seen though.) Potato, potahto.

 
Thanks. I didn't realize it was such a tough concept...
Neither did I; but you seemed to take great offense when I posted that Greene's situation wasn't as good as Blounts.
You don't seem to grasp the difference between "similar" and "identical". I think you are stubborn rather than dense, but either way you are refusing to recognize the difference.
I grasp the difference fine. You don't seem to grasp the meaning of "better." Perhaps I shouldn't have been sarcastic in my first post, but I did say that I agreed with some of what you posted, but that I thought Blount situation was better. You seemed to take that personally, for whatever reason. The fact is that I like them both, but I like Blount's situation better, because he has less (viable) competition, has proven more, and therefore is the "safer" pick to put up better numbers. Could Greene post better numbers? Absolutely, and I wouldn't be surprised. However, as things stand right now, Blount is, and should be, ranked ahead of Greene in most places.
 
(1)No one cares if Caddy or LT is a better 3rd down back. Greene and Blount won't be in on 3rd down regardless of who IS in on 3rd down. That's all that matters, so why do you keep bringing this up like it is pertinent? It's not.
It is pertinent. If player A is competing with player B for a spot (ie-3rd down RB), and player C is competing with player D for a spot (ie-3rd down RB), if player B is better than player D, then it is more likely that player C might be able to take that spot (3rd down RB) away from the inferior competetion.
But here is an article that states Carnell Williams was the best 3rd down back in football last year. It also states that Blount was terrible in that aspect and Greene was really good.
DVOA is a very specific, and often mis-leading, stat. It fails to take into account the situation. For example, 3rd and 25, the defense is playing soft, and a RB might pick up 19 yards on a draw. That definitely helps that RBs DVOA, but is not a true indicator of his ability on 3rd down.
(2) LT had ~200 more yards bc he got more carries. Simple as that. His extra 0.1 ypc could easily be attributed to the fact that everyone knew it was going to be a run play if Greene was in, where LT was in on plenty of downs where the D was playing the pass. So, no, LT did not outperform Greene as a runner last year.
Yes, he did. LT got more carries, and a higher YPC. Usually, the more carries a RB gets, the lower his YPC will fall. So, if you want to assume that LT's better YPC was due to situations he got carries in, it's also fair to assume that Greene's YPC would have dropped (as is normal) as his carries increased. LT out-performed him, the stats prove it. Let it go.
(3) The goal line is not the only test of a power runner.
But it's the only one that matters for FF purposes. I've never participated in a FF league that gave points for 3rd-down conversions, but EVERY league I've been in has given points for TDs, and LT was better than Greene at that in 2010, and Blount was better than the other Bucs RB at that in 2010.
(4) I never said their situations were the same. I said they were similar and all I was saying was that they are two down backs looking to get the majority of those carries this year and with a veteran installed as a 3rd down back. That's all. But the "facts" don't support what you said. It appears Caddy is actually the better 3rd down back and Blount is poor in that role, but I really don't care about any of that. All I said was similar and you flipped out.
Actually, I didn't flip out. I said they weren't all that similar, and you flipped out; I'm assuming the sarcasm triggered you...my bad. I agreed with much of your first post, but said they weren't all that similar, and Blount's situation was better; you took that very personally.
Actually, you specifically said "Does adding the fact that LT is a future hall of famer add credence to my point of view? Absolutely, since it demonstrates that he is definitely capable of out-playing Greene" which is clearly erroneous. Being a future HoFer does not demonstrate anything other than that in previous years LT could outplay Greene. It means NOTHING for 2011, so that is why I say this is a stupid point and you need to let it go.
Myabe quote the entire sentence, instead of parsing and cutting it to deliberately put it out of context? Here's the ENTIRE sentence:"Absolutely, since it demonstrates that he is definitely capable of out-playing Greene (especially when you consider that he has already out-played Greene once for the #1 RB spot)."

Notice the bolded part, that shows how in the most recent season, LT outplayed Greene. Not LT in his prime, but LT 2010 outplayed Greene 2010. That is relevant, whether you choose to believe it or not.

And again, the facts don't support LT outplaying Greene. He had more carries, yes. Does 0.1 ypc better indicate he outplayed him? No. Put LT in only on obvious run plays and he probably drops at least 0.1 ypc.
Yes, the facts do support that. As previous stated, if you want to play the hypothetical scenario game, you have to do it for both. If you give Greene 40 more carries, his YPC probably drops (since that's the norm), and LT still outplays him.
But more importantly, as a Blount owner last year, I recall the staff talking about removing him from short yardage situations and how they were not confident in him there. In the end, that's what matters. Even if Blount was great at short yardage but the coaches didn't think so then that trumps ability.
Again, it works both ways. You suggest that the Bucs staff don't think Blount is great at short yardage, so that trumps ability. Well, I submit that the Jets staff utilizing LT in goal-line 3 times as much as Greene trumps his "ability" there as well. And, again, the reason I use goal-line carries instead of all short-yardage carries is because I don't know of any FF leagues that give points for short-yardage conversions, unless they are on the goal-line.
 
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Rex Ryan seems to be tremendously adept at stroking the egos of his guys. It's impressive, frankly, and that's coming from a Pats fan. I bring it up b/c I think he did a great job last year heading into the season by calling it a competition and talking about playing the hot hand. Greene was the incumbent but that made sure he was motivated while ensuring LT didn't get his panties in a bunch being slapped w/a 3rd down back tag. Greene certainly appeared to fumble and happy feet his way to the bench early and LT was dominant, making the decision easier. I think the TD poaching was the epitome of ego stroking. Everything we would normally think was throw aside and LT took goalline touches instead of Greene.

I bring that up b/c I think Ryan is playing another ego game by calling Greene the starter. The intent is too boost him up after a poor start last year. LT seems to have bought into it and is ok w/the 3rd down back label this year. But I don't beleive we will see anything different this year. The Jets will play the hot hand and that could come from any of their 4 RBs.

My money is on a similar line from last year, with the extended vacation adding to LT's value b/c he'll be better rested. They ran him into the groung in last year's preseason b/c he had a chip on his shoulder. (Relatively speaking . . . 26 touches and lots of time on the field for a guy who was old and hadn't played much preseason ball in his career.)

I like LT's ADP much better than Greene.

Greene: 195 / 820 / 5 and maybe a dozen catches for 60 yards.

 
Wow Bayhawks... you are getting pwned pretty bad in here :popcorn: ... but by all means, please do carry on.

...I don't know of any FF leagues that give points for short-yardage conversions, unless they are on the goal-line.
You've been on this forum 8ish years and you've never heard of leagues that award points for first downs? Hmmmm
 
Bayhawks,

Holy crap, man. You are really making me question my assumption that you are stubborn rather than dense.

You are correct with your player A/B and C/D theory if that was the case, but guess what? That's not the case. Greene and Blount are most likely not competing with LT and Caddy for 3rd downs. That's just the way it is. The staff is more comfortable with LT and Caddy, so it's a moot freaking point. I keep trying to hammer this in, but it isn't taking.
I understand what you are saying, however, you are applying this logic selectively. In 2010, the respective staffs of the Jets and Saints were more comfortable with LT & Caddy in on 3rd downs. You choose to believe that this will continue in 2011. That's all well and good, and you very well could be 100% correct.However, the same logic applies when you talk about Greene's role on the Jets. In 2010, the Jets staff was more comfortable with LT being the main RB, even though during the off-season and pre-season, all indications were that Greene would be the man. Why do you choose to believe that this will change, but their comfort with LT and Caddy on 3rd downs won't? This is the main reason why Blount's situation is preferable to Greene's. He has the support of the coaching staff as the main RB, and he has out-played (significantly). Even if you want to dis-credit part of LT's stats & amplify Greene's stats, at best, you could say Greene was as good as LT in 2010. Greene wasn't better. So unless Greene improves or LT regresses (and either/both could happen), what reason is there to believe the Jets won't continue to be more comfortable with LT as the main RB?

You are not making any headway with your "LT outperformed Greene" point. Their difference in number of carries is not enough to make a difference in ypc. Maybe you'll let this one drop if we take into account all the stats from last year. If you take the post season into account, LT had 254 carries for 1055 yds (4.15 ypc) on the year and Greene had 230 carries for 964 yds (4.19 ypc). Feel free to give up now. It was a dumb point and has been put to rest.
Well, if you're going to count post-season, why not count pre-season too? Sorry, that was sarcasm again. But seriously, post-season doesn't count for FF leagues, so it's not really relevant. Especially when you consider that the lighter workload of Greene during the regular season was probably a factor in his improved performance during the post-season. Besides, he had a great 2009 post-season, as well, and that didn't lead to a great 2010.

Now to the goal line issue. Yes, for FF purposes the goal line is all important. But we're trying to determine if Greene is well suited for short yardage (which includes the goal line) so it is prudent to look at as many examples as we can find of Greene in short yardage situations. If you want to eliminate all but the goal line and leave yourself with a useless sample size, go ahead. That's short sighted and statistically useless, but that's your call. Just don't try to use those numbers in a discussion.
If I didn't say it earlier, I think Greene can be an effective short-yardage runner. The problem is that the Jets coaches don't use him at the goal-line. I don't care if he can convert the 3rd & 2's at the 44 yard line. I don't get FF points for that, and I ain't a Jets fan. What I care about is does he get the goal-line carries, and can he convert? And the answer are no, and probably. But if the first answer remains no, the second answer doesn't matter. In TB, there isn't another RB who is good at the goal-line, so even though Blount needs to improve, he stands to have more goal-line opps than Greene.
Next, I did not paste a quote out of context. I simply left off an irrelevant statement you had put in parentheses. Stating that LT outplayed him last year (shown to be erroneous above) does not add any credibility to your statement that being a HoFer "demonstrates that LT is definitely capable of outperforming Greene" in 2011. Still a really bad point no matter how you swing it.
Yes you did. If you don't understand that, then you don't understand what "context" means, and there's no reason to discuss it further. BTW-you've shown that YOU don't think LT outplayed Greene, you haven't produced a single stat or shred of support for that opinion.I'm done with this conversation. Blount's situation is better than Greene's right now. In a month, after TC starts, that might change, but as of right now, it is what it is.

 
'MrTwo94 said:
(1)No one cares if Caddy or LT is a better 3rd down back. Greene and Blount won't be in on 3rd down regardless of who IS in on 3rd down.
I think it makes a difference. Your RB can't score points if he's standing on the sideline with the rest of the offense after a 3-and-out. A better 3rd down back can give the 1-2 back more touches.
 
Last year I was pretty low on Shonn Greene, predicting just 1,041 yards from scrimmage and 8 touchdowns. He obviously failed to even meet those low numbers, coming in at 886/2.

I want to like Greene this year, but I'm not sure there's a lot of upside here. The Jets ranked 2nd in rush attempts and 4th in rushing yards, and this was while running an incredibly high number of offensive plays (1,087). On the other hand, he really just needs to steal LT's touches to become a value pick.

It's too early to know what to make of Bilal Powell or Joe McKnight. Powell was a bit of a surprise pick, which might mean the Jets are anxious to see what he's got -- Greene was the same sort of pick. McKnight really struggled for most of last year -- a lot of it being on the mental side -- but he looked comfortable rushing for 158 yards in the last week of the season. We don't know how hard these two are working in the off-season, but it's at least possible that one of them ends up stealing touches from Greene.

As for LT -- I don't think we can expect him to come close to what he did last year. For Greene, if he can handle 320 carries, those carries are there for the taking. He fumbled twice in the first half of the first game, and Ryan had no patience for him after that. If Greene can get the confidence of the coaching staff back, he's going to be capable of a big rushing season.

But he still won't add anything at all in the receiving game, severely capping his value in PPR leagues. So buyer beware in PPR leagues, but keep an eye on the Jets in training camp. He also could be a buy high candidate; if he starts the season strong, his owner may be trying to sell high, and I think Greene could be a good value in that situation, as I think a strong start would likely carry through all year for him.

 
I think the Jets have already decided that they want to be more dynamic than handing the ball to Greene 250 times. More and more teams are seeing these Super Bowl winning teams (Patriots, Colts, Saints, Packers) that get there and WIN through the passing game. Granted I myself do not believe Mark Sanchez is capable of being like the QB's on those 4 teams, or like Ben Rothlisberger for that matter....but maybe the Jets do. So I am gonna go out on a limb and say that LT, Joe McKnight, and Bilal Powell were brought in for a reason, and thats to bridge the gap before the Jets transition to a throwing offense.

When Shonn Greene was drafted, I don't believe they had bought into the whole QB wins championships belief. Throw in back to back years of dominating passing games winning the super bowl since Greenes selection....and WHAMO! you change your game plan a little. You got that Saints team who used Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas extensively as check down options, good ones at that. And the Packers use Brandon Jackson and little known James Starks in the same sense the following year, as compliments to the passing game. Shonn Greene is not a complement to the Jets passing game....LT and Bilal Powell will be, with McKnight and Shonn Greene doing most of the ballcarrying. Which overall will not amount to enough to make Greene a starting fantasy RB.

Shonne Greene - 207 carries - 4.3 ypc - 890 yards - 4 TDs (19 rec 133 yards 0 tds)

 
It's too early to know what to make of Bilal Powell or Joe McKnight. Powell was a bit of a surprise pick, which might mean the Jets are anxious to see what he's got -- Greene was the same sort of pick. McKnight really struggled for most of last year -- a lot of it being on the mental side -- but he looked comfortable rushing for 158 yards in the last week of the season. We don't know how hard these two are working in the off-season, but it's at least possible that one of them ends up stealing touches from Greene.
Chase brings up a very good point: how will the off season affect the four backs? I wouldn't be surprised if the one who trains the hardest the off season might not find himself getting a lot of carries. One thing that concerns me about Greene: he is a big back. They have a tendency to get out of shape and when they get fat, they become worthless. If he isn't training hard this off season that could really set him back. I like Powell and think people who are ignoring the team drafting him with a fourth pick are ignoring an important fact: two years in a row the team has taken a HB, which tells me that they are not sold on Greene as an every down, featured back for the long term. They are still looking. On the other hand, the lack of OTAs will hurt the rookies, so who knows how hard Powell is working out and he will be behind on learning the offense. McKnight has never struck me as a hard worker. LT? No one has a HOF career without having a great work ethic, so my money is on him to start the year as the starter. But I wouldn't be surprised if this backfield is a four headed monster and impossible to predict all season long.I am going to guess the following for Greene:175 carries, 4.2 ypc, 735 yard. 6 TDs. 5 receptions for 40 yards.
 
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Having watched Greene every game for two years now, he strikes me as closer to a Lendale White / Ron Dayne type than a big-time feature back in the making. I own him in a few leagues because I really felt that after the playoffs in 2009, he was poised to be the man last year. But there's just something there that doesn't look/seem quite right. He gets bottled up and goes down a little too easy for a bruiser (like White and Dayne did).

I also think Powell will be a Rex Ryan-type player. I've gone out of my way to get Powell in leagues where I own Greene. This could be an ugly fantasy backfield, and is almost impossible to predict. On one hand, Greene could grab the job and run with it, and put up a nice 1,400 yard, 10 TD season. On the other hand, he could have a pedestrian 800 yard, 6 TD season.

I think the latter is more likely.

 
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Two word: bilal powell.

I expect this time next year we will be addressing him as the jets starting rb. I think greene will get hurt mid year and powell will shine

 
What is Shonn Greene's ADP for this year?i don't think i would spend anything better than a very late second rounder on him.what do you guys think?
I think there are a lot better options in the late 2nd. I'm thinking he's more on the order of the 45th or so best player in non-PPR leagues. In PPR leagues, he probably falls to 65 or maybe further.
 
Last year I was pretty low on Shonn Greene, predicting just 1,041 yards from scrimmage and 8 touchdowns. He obviously failed to even meet those low numbers, coming in at 886/2.

I want to like Greene this year, but I'm not sure there's a lot of upside here. The Jets ranked 2nd in rush attempts and 4th in rushing yards, and this was while running an incredibly high number of offensive plays (1,087). On the other hand, he really just needs to steal LT's touches to become a value pick.

It's too early to know what to make of Bilal Powell or Joe McKnight. Powell was a bit of a surprise pick, which might mean the Jets are anxious to see what he's got -- Greene was the same sort of pick. McKnight really struggled for most of last year -- a lot of it being on the mental side -- but he looked comfortable rushing for 158 yards in the last week of the season. We don't know how hard these two are working in the off-season, but it's at least possible that one of them ends up stealing touches from Greene.

As for LT -- I don't think we can expect him to come close to what he did last year. For Greene, if he can handle 320 carries, those carries are there for the taking. He fumbled twice in the first half of the first game, and Ryan had no patience for him after that. If Greene can get the confidence of the coaching staff back, he's going to be capable of a big rushing season.

But he still won't add anything at all in the receiving game, severely capping his value in PPR leagues. So buyer beware in PPR leagues, but keep an eye on the Jets in training camp. He also could be a buy high candidate; if he starts the season strong, his owner may be trying to sell high, and I think Greene could be a good value in that situation, as I think a strong start would likely carry through all year for him.
I think you are being a little hard on Greene here. For 1 he had 16 receptions last season on 24 targets. While 16 isn't a lot it's something to build off and he had 9 FDs in those 16 receptions which is excellent. His catch percent and y/ c were similar to LT's and I think a projection of 25-30 receptions if he holds down the starting gig is reasonable. Secondly he seemed to have plenty of confidence of the staff as he had 15+ carries 5 times last season and had 19, 18, and 9 touches in the playoffs to LT's 20, 12 and 9. That is more total touches in three close playoff games without being the receiving back.
 
Greene is tough to project with all the uncertainty for the NYJ. Will Edwards and Holmes be back? That will dictate how much NYJ run the football. The main problem with Greene is that he's not a good receiver and Tomlinson is. I would suspect that Greene will get more carries with LT being more of a 3rd down back. And I suspect that one of Edwards/Holmes won't be back with NYJ, so the Jets will likely run it more. 260 car, 1115 yards, 8 TD15 rec, 90 yds, 0 TD
heard Rex Ryan's message to the NYJ Fans this morning - hard to take him at his word,but the guy said the Jets plan to air it out more then in previous years..if that's the case, I would imagine LT becomes a bigger part of the Jets passing game, meaning more time on the field for LT2 and less time for Greene..Greene's ypc avg dropped to 4.1 from 5 yards per carry in 2009..that's a significant drop..I just don't see the Jets getting away from what they did last season, i.e., heavy dosage of LT2 with some Shonn Greene sprinkled in.. 215 carries, 4ypc, 860 yards, 3 TDs, 12 rec..I have no faith in Greene being anywhere near the top 15 RBs in 2011..nothing more than a late round flyer at this point..solid 4th RB...I'd much rather use a mid/late round pick on a guy like Fred Jackson..
 
I'm really starting to like Greene for this year solely because it seems like everyone else doesn't like him. I hope that keeps happening in the next month and he can be had for even cheaper. I'm a fan of the post hype RB's. Greene, Felix, J Best, Deangelo. Potentially all of them you'll be able to get after the first 20 RB's are off the board.

 
I'm really starting to like Greene for this year solely because it seems like everyone else doesn't like him. I hope that keeps happening in the next month and he can be had for even cheaper. I'm a fan of the post hype RB's. Greene, Felix, J Best, Deangelo. Potentially all of them you'll be able to get after the first 20 RB's are off the board.
I often employ this strategy as well. I tend to avoid the 2nd year hype and buy the 3rd year shunning.
 
I'm really starting to like Greene for this year solely because it seems like everyone else doesn't like him. I hope that keeps happening in the next month and he can be had for even cheaper. I'm a fan of the post hype RB's. Greene, Felix, J Best, Deangelo. Potentially all of them you'll be able to get after the first 20 RB's are off the board.
I often employ this strategy as well. I tend to avoid the 2nd year hype and buy the 3rd year shunning.
2010 - McFadden, McCoy, Forte (non ppr).2009 - Addai, R Williams2008 - Deangelo, T JonesSome post hypers, some older vets. All were steals when taken in those years.So why not Greene in 2011? He'll get the opportunity.
 
I'm really starting to like Greene for this year solely because it seems like everyone else doesn't like him. I hope that keeps happening in the next month and he can be had for even cheaper. I'm a fan of the post hype RB's. Greene, Felix, J Best, Deangelo. Potentially all of them you'll be able to get after the first 20 RB's are off the board.
I often employ this strategy as well. I tend to avoid the 2nd year hype and buy the 3rd year shunning.
2010 - McFadden, McCoy, Forte (non ppr).2009 - Addai, R Williams2008 - Deangelo, T JonesSome post hypers, some older vets. All were steals when taken in those years.So why not Greene in 2011? He'll get the opportunity.
yMccoy was in his second year in 2010.. Try to be precise on your players when trying to make a point between 2nd and 3rd year guys lol :thumbup:
 
I'm really starting to like Greene for this year solely because it seems like everyone else doesn't like him. I hope that keeps happening in the next month and he can be had for even cheaper. I'm a fan of the post hype RB's. Greene, Felix, J Best, Deangelo. Potentially all of them you'll be able to get after the first 20 RB's are off the board.
I often employ this strategy as well. I tend to avoid the 2nd year hype and buy the 3rd year shunning.
2010 - McFadden, McCoy, Forte (non ppr).2009 - Addai, R Williams2008 - Deangelo, T JonesSome post hypers, some older vets. All were steals when taken in those years.So why not Greene in 2011? He'll get the opportunity.
yMccoy was in his second year in 2010.. Try to be precise on your players when trying to make a point between 2nd and 3rd year guys lol :thumbup:
Settle down guy.I didn't say anything about 2nd to 3rd year, that was Banger. I was just talking about post hypers. McCoy was a value last year based on where he was taken in redrafts.
 
How are things setting up thus far in preseason? Does it look to be a RBBC or is Greene going to be more of a featured back?

 
Greene is a big sleeper this year. He will get every opportunity to be the man behind a fantastic line.

 
'shader said:
Greene is a big sleeper this year. He will get every opportunity to be the man behind a fantastic line.
He is going in the same exact spot as last year in most of my drafts (3rd round) so he isn't much of a sleeper.
 
Greene will be the RB1 behind an excellent offensive line, and if you can get him in the 3rd/4th round I'd jump at the chance

290 carries 1245 yards 11 TDs 30 catches 200 yards 1 TD.

 
Greene is tough to project with all the uncertainty for the NYJ. Will Edwards and Holmes be back? That will dictate how much NYJ run the football. The main problem with Greene is that he's not a good receiver and Tomlinson is. I would suspect that Greene will get more carries with LT being more of a 3rd down back. And I suspect that one of Edwards/Holmes won't be back with NYJ, so the Jets will likely run it more.

260 car, 1115 yards, 8 TD

15 rec, 90 yds, 0 TD
heard Rex Ryan's message to the NYJ Fans this morning - hard to take him at his word,but the guy said the Jets plan to air it out more then in previous years..if that's the case, I would imagine LT becomes a bigger part of the Jets passing game, meaning more time on the field for LT2 and less time for Greene..Greene's ypc avg dropped to 4.1 from 5 yards per carry in 2009..that's a significant drop..

I just don't see the Jets getting away from what they did last season, i.e., heavy dosage of LT2 with some Shonn Greene sprinkled in..

215 carries, 4ypc, 860 yards, 3 TDs, 12 rec..

I have no faith in Greene being anywhere near the top 15 RBs in 2011..

nothing more than a late round flyer at this point..solid 4th RB...

I'd much rather use a mid/late round pick on a guy like Fred Jackson..
Did you see LTs 32 year old legs fall off? did you see that at all? I sure did.LOL, its comical to see people talk football around here, and have no concept of the game...just comical, like your entire post.

Sanchez airing it out, heavy dose of LT, lol....Did you just here yourself? lololololololol How did that formula work last year, failed them when they needed it most.

 
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Shonn Green is in a classic buy low situation right now. He is off to a disappointing start and facing the strong rush defense of the Ravens this week. If the Green owner in your league is freaking out you might want to shoot him an email. Here's why:

-In the first four weeks Green will have faced three of the top six rush defenses in Dallas, Jacksonville and Baltimore. His numbers are disappointing but not completely disastrous. As of week 4 he will have faced rush defenses; 2, 5, 26, 6. He did put up 106 combined yards against the one weak defense he has faced.

-Moving forward he faces rush defenses; 10, 16, 19, 24, 28, 10, 14, 28, 11, 28, 30, 15. Mangold should be back soon. And his biggest competition for touches is old for a RB and I think the Jets know they need to limit LTs touches if they want him to have anything left come playoff time.

I'm not a big fan of Green's talent, but his situation is primed for a production turnaround. Some might think that the move is to wait one more week and get him after another bad outing against the Ravens. I disagree. It all depends on the panic level of the Green owner in your league but in general you buy at the darkest hour, when there is blood in the streets, not once the healing has started.

 
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