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Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams

Player Page Link: Steven Jackson Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
For Jackson's 1st time in his career, he rushed for under 4 yards per carry. I'm a little surprised by that because you'd think it would not go down when you add a passing threat like Sam Bradford into the mix but his rushing average did slip to 3.8 per carry last year. Personally, I think Jackson's ceiling is a solid RB2, gone are the days where you're hoping this guy turns into a top 5 back, he just doesn't score the Td's. He hasn't scored a receiving TD in 3 years and in the last 4 years only has 2 receiving Td's. In the rushing department in that same span, he hasn't reached 8 rushing TD's in a season. It's hard to be labeled elite when those numbers are the true realities. In leagues where you get bonuses for 100 yards rushing I'd give him a slight bump.

1140 yards rushing, 6 td's, 48 receptions for 395 yards and 1 Td

 
'Jason Wood said:
Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.
I guess somebody has to take this assignment and do blurbs on players who have no Union, have no game in which to show off their "pass catching ability as a swing man out of the backfield"....that somebody is forced to proceed as if business is as usual.Having to write up something that appears to have some basis in fact in the midst of total uncertainty is a tough row to hoe, Jason.

Good job, though.

A "great debate and analysis" of what isn't.

Anticipation it ain't.

Enthusiasm it isn't. :tumbleweed:

 
I know SJax is not an elite Fantasy RB any more but I still think he is a low end #1.

At this point he has no competition for carries, although they will probably add someone hpefully Sproles which I think could help SJax with a better per carry average. If they dont add one then Jackson gets his yards just through plain weight of numbers. Last year defences were focused on stopping Jackson and were happy to see if the rookie QB could beat them with an average group of WRs. This year hopefully the WR group is healthy and has improved and Bradford has a years more experience and McDaniels O means D's will have to focus on that more. With that in mind I think SJax will have better numbers than last year.

 
Jackson is still a solid RB, with little competition for carries, and is a really good receiever. Still has good value in PPR leagues and you can get him in the 2nd round easily. Would be a great #2RB or as a lead back if you took someone like AJ in the first. STL offense should still improve with Bradford's upside, thus potentially giving Jackson more opportunities to score. Always have to worry about his injury history and mileage.

280 car, 1200 yards, 8 TD

50 rec, 375 yards, 1 TD

 
I think St Louis may bring in a change of pace back to spell Jackson a bit. I still see him getting the bulk of the work and another solid season with 1000 yards rushing for the 7th straight year.

304 carries, 1218 yards, 7 TD, 40 catches, 320 yards, ~ rb 11

 
:popcorn:

SJAX is falling into the mid-second round as RB12 in some redraft leagues as drafters take the top tier WRs and QBs before him. Nobody wants to be the guy left holding the bag when he falls off the cliff I guess. He's finished RB14 or better in 6 straight seasons.

I also feel like there's an extremely steep RB tier dropoff after Steven Jackson.

The Rams look like they're an improving offensive team with Bradford, some young WRs, a good o-line, and Jackson. One would think that would translate into double digit TDs for him. Jackson keeps his body in tip top shape and is one of the few bell-cow RBs left. He could make for an excellent RB2.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Jackson's carries decrease a bit to the 290 range due to a missed game or two and/or a 3rd down back addition. I do also expect his TDs and ypc to increase with a better equipped offensive team.

290 carries at 4.3 per carry for 1,247 yards, 40 receptions at 8.0 per catch for 320 yards. 10 total TDs.

 
Jackson is still a solid RB, with little competition for carries, and is a really good receiever. Still has good value in PPR leagues and you can get him in the 2nd round easily. Would be a great #2RB or as a lead back if you took someone like AJ in the first. STL offense should still improve with Bradford's upside, thus potentially giving Jackson more opportunities to score. Always have to worry about his injury history and mileage.280 car, 1200 yards, 8 TD50 rec, 375 yards, 1 TD
2nd round huh? In my PPR dynasty draft goin on right now we're at round 4 & he is still there. If he's there for my pick, I may have to take him over Welker or Gore on value alone. I can't believe Gore is still out there either.Anyway....275 carries 1,266 yards 7 TDs45 rec 389 yards 2 TD
 
I don't think he will produce as well as he did last year and that this is the year he drops. The combination of age, wear and tear, change in the team's directions, etc, make me think that this is the year you see him have a very good beginning but then slow down, sprinkled in with a game here or there where he reminds of how good he can be when its all running through him (maybe there will be a couple of games where its just all running through him).

But overall, the decline has begun and I just don't see a young team like this with a coach that now has put a lot of emphasis on adding pieces to a dynamic young passing game....decidng that they want to put it all on an older back.

 
I'd be more tempted to draft SJax if I could readily identify the handcuff. I'm not counting on him to last the season or be productive enough to be a factor. Here are my expectations:

10 games played

180 rushes 700 rush yards 3 TDs

20 receptions, 200 yds 0 TDs.

Frankly, I'd rather be wrong on the low side and let someone else take the chance than draft him at his highest ceiling in the second round. The days of SJax being a threat to finish in the top five are long gone.

 
I feel his yards per carry is going to bounce back this year. I believe Bradford will improve and that should give Jackson a bit more room to run.

310 carries @ 4.2 ypc / 1302 yards / 8 TD's

50 receptions @ 8.5 ypr / 425 yards / 2 TD's

The cliff is approaching for Jackson, but it's still a couple years away. With an improved offense and basically an off season to rest, I feel he's a prime candidate to finish in the top 10 RB's this year.

 
'johnadams said:
I'd be more tempted to draft SJax if I could readily identify the handcuff. I'm not counting on him to last the season or be productive enough to be a factor. Here are my expectations:10 games played180 rushes 700 rush yards 3 TDs20 receptions, 200 yds 0 TDs. Frankly, I'd rather be wrong on the low side and let someone else take the chance than draft him at his highest ceiling in the second round. The days of SJax being a threat to finish in the top five are long gone.
Wow
 
He's been more durable and consistent than people give him credit for. I think you can pencil him in for another season like last yr with a slight downtick in carries and a slight uptick in YPC to offset it.

He hasn't topped 8 total TDs since 2006, which was a LONG time ago in RB years. IF he's going to bust out and produce as a 1st rd pick, hes got to get in the 10-12 range (and he might). I am worried about his sitting out more passing downs as he gets older and especially if they were to sign a 3rd down back in FA. Also, lots of people said he just needed to play 16 games and get a passing attack to go off. It seems like 2010 should have been that year. Did circumstances hide mediocre play in stats that looked fairly similar to his recent history? Tough call.

As I said in my first sentence, he's a reliable player and has no more question marks than the other choices near his ADP. I'll give him 302/1235/7 and 34/240/1

Nothing to sneeze at if he's available in the 2nd.

 
What's hurt him is the lack of any downfield receiving threat. If the Rams were to sign one of Holmes/Rice (even Braylon), that would be a huge upgrade to their receiving game and as a result would boost SteJax's stock albeit slightly.

 
I love Steven Jackson, he is one of my favorite players on my favorite team.

But... He looked slow last year. I saw him bust through the line a few times, then looked like he was running in mud. I truly hope it was just nagging injuries or something and that it wasn't him running towards that RB cliff everybody falls off of eventually, but I am concerned.

I think the Rams will sign a 3rd down specialist, limiting Jackson's receptions. I don't think he will exceed 4 ypc without some long runs, so I think he will be a middle of the road RB2 with upside based around his TD total.

1100 rushing, 300 receiving, 8 total TDs.

 
I am really warming up to the idea of drafting Steven Jackson this season. With an ADP of RB 12 and after reading the posts in this spotlight, it seems that the majority of FBG posters are down on him, he could slip even further than that. For ppr leagues, throw in that there should be six or more WRs taken and a couple of QBs, you might be able to grab him as late as the end of the second round.

Many of those same posters that seemed reluctant to draft Jackson then projected him over 1500 total yards. I think that the St. Louis Rams offense takes a positive leap forward this season and Jackson remains a key cog. I see his opportunities similar to the past two seasons, except that he gets more TD chances. I am a big fan of Bradford and I beleive that the Rams offense jumps up the NFL rankings this season.

Their offensive line will be better and Steven Jackson will again be over 4.0 ypc

Steven Jackson 16 gms 330 carries 1353 yards 4.1 ypc 60 targets 44 catches 352 yards 8.0 ypc and 9 total TDs

 
I just have a feeling hes gonna have one breakout yr finally the yr everyone forgets about him. Imagine getting him as your #2 RB? Wow

 
'shadyridr said:
I just have a feeling hes gonna have one breakout yr finally the yr everyone forgets about him. Imagine getting him as your #2 RB? Wow
I can see this happening. But with that said, my most realistic projection is 270 carries for 1,000 yards, 7 RuTD, and 30 catches for 240 yards, 1 ReTD. I wouldn't be stunned to see him put up 800 total yards and 5 TDs, nor would I be stunned to see him put up 2,000 total yards and 15 TDs. He is the most unpredictable RB this year for me (says a lot given Hillis, MJD, and Turner).
 
Funny how nobody mentioned that McDaniels is an extremely pass-oriented OC

Anyway, this is the last chance to get rid of him in Dynasty leagues

 
'shadyridr said:
I just have a feeling hes gonna have one breakout yr finally the yr everyone forgets about him. Imagine getting him as your #2 RB? Wow
I can see this happening. But with that said, my most realistic projection is 270 carries for 1,000 yards, 7 RuTD, and 30 catches for 240 yards, 1 ReTD. I wouldn't be stunned to see him put up 800 total yards and 5 TDs, nor would I be stunned to see him put up 2,000 total yards and 15 TDs. He is the most unpredictable RB this year for me (says a lot given Hillis, MJD, and Turner).
Not sure why you would say SJax is that unpredictable, unless you are projecting an injury, which could be said for any RB. I think he's a pretty safe bet to get the lion's share of the carries, he'll probably top 1500 total yards, and he'll probably score between 5 and 10 TDs. I actually think he's one of the "safer" guys to project.
 
SJax looked slow last year.

Rams still don't have a threat to stretch the defenses. Could be Avery, Holmes, Rice, Alexander, etc...but right now there is not an established threat.

OL is still bottom of the league, but there is potential for improvement I guess.

McDaniel throws the rock.

SJax 270-972-5, 30-180-1

 
I'd be more tempted to draft SJax if I could readily identify the handcuff. I'm not counting on him to last the season or be productive enough to be a factor. Here are my expectations:10 games played180 rushes 700 rush yards 3 TDs20 receptions, 200 yds 0 TDs. Frankly, I'd rather be wrong on the low side and let someone else take the chance than draft him at his highest ceiling in the second round. The days of SJax being a threat to finish in the top five are long gone.
Whether I agree with you or not is irrelevent, but I don't see how crunching numbers on a guess of 10 games played is an effective strategy. You might as well give us a high end estimate along with your worst case scenerio that you posted in order to help the rest of us out.
 
I just have a feeling hes gonna have one breakout yr finally the yr everyone forgets about him. Imagine getting him as your #2 RB? Wow
I can see this happening. But with that said, my most realistic projection is 270 carries for 1,000 yards, 7 RuTD, and 30 catches for 240 yards, 1 ReTD. I wouldn't be stunned to see him put up 800 total yards and 5 TDs, nor would I be stunned to see him put up 2,000 total yards and 15 TDs. He is the most unpredictable RB this year for me (says a lot given Hillis, MJD, and Turner).
Not sure why you would say SJax is that unpredictable, unless you are projecting an injury, which could be said for any RB. I think he's a pretty safe bet to get the lion's share of the carries, he'll probably top 1500 total yards, and he'll probably score between 5 and 10 TDs. I actually think he's one of the "safer" guys to project.
He's unpredictable because I think he's due for a decline, in light of his age and all the wear and tears he's taken the last few years. The one doubt I have is he's still not THAT old and perhaps he comes into this season healthy and stays that way. That's the basis for my unpredictability. The other backs I am confident I can cap their upside and downside to a wide but manageable range. With S-Jax, my range is 1,200 yards and 10 TDs, which is enormous.
 
Anyone else have any thoughts on SJ with McDaniels as coordinator? I read a few promising articles over the past few days, about how Jackson is going to be more involved in the passing game.

 
Anyone else have any thoughts on SJ with McDaniels as coordinator? I read a few promising articles over the past few days, about how Jackson is going to be more involved in the passing game.
Steven Jackson said he believes new coordinator Josh McDaniels can help him regain a bigger role in the passing game.

Jackson caught 90 balls back in his epic 2006 season, but hasn't topped 51 receptions since. The Rams will certainly throw more under McDaniels, leading to more chances. However, the most receptions a McDaniels' back has ever had in a season was Kevin Faulk's 58 in New England. Anything more than that for a declining S-Jax would be a surprise.

Aug. 4 - 11:25 a.m. ET
Steven Jackson said he feels better physically during this training camp than at any other preseason outside of his rookie year.

Last year, Jackson was coming off back surgery. "I feel great," he said Wednesday. "Tip-top condition, my strength is there. ... I'm not worried if something is going to let up on me. The timidness of my game is gone." Jackson is 28 and has averaged 315.0 touches per year for the last seven seasons. But with the offense expected to improve under new coordinator Josh McDaniels, a healthy S-Jax still has plenty of value. He's a lock for 300-plus touches once again.

Aug. 11 - 8:46 a.m. ET
The bolded gets me the most excited. Cadillac and Norwood aren't a threat to Jackson's touches. They'll provide him a breather at times and keep him fresh. They probably help his value. Steven Jackson is a nice luxury as a RB2.

 
I don't know what to make of him right now, with my draft a week away. If he stays healthy, he possesses great value at his current ADP. Then again, he has had a TON of carries the past few years. What say you?

 
Jackson's had an interesting career. He's been consistent (and excellent at times) despite playing for some really bad teams. It's sort of unfortunate that his best seasons were spent on such poor teams. Now I think we could see the opposite -- I think Jackson is in decline, albeit a very slow decline, but the Rams' fortunes finally look to be headed in the right direction. So, although Jackson isn't the dynamic back that he was a couple of years ago, he's in a much better situation. Yes, McDaniels likes to throw, but so did Shurmur. I don't see that cutting substantially into Jackson's numbers. Whereas he used to be a big yardage/PPR guy with low td's, I think we'll start to see that reversed a bit.

My projection:

275 rushes, 1,128 yards, 10 td's, 55 receptions, 415 yards, 2 td's

 

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