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Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

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Thread Topic: Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons

Player Page Link: Roddy White Player Page

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ceiling -- 110 - 1600 - 15

median --- 95 - 1300 - 10

basement -- 80 - 1100 - 7

May be the least risk WR in the draft

 
Roddy White is at the top of his game. He plays in a solid offense with a young QB who likes to get White the ball when the chips are on the line. White is coming off a career year so it's easy to like him but it should be more of the same for Roddy White next year.

103 receptions, 1220 yards, 10 Tds

 
I think Julio Jones will start eating into his numbers, but probably not a ton this year.

95-1250-10

 
Is there any more overrated fantasy player than Roddy White? A late 1st round pick on a running team that just drafted their #1 WR of the future. Why is everyone so high on him, exactly?

I'm kidding, obviously. He's not quite the physical freak that AJ or CJ is, but there's no downside to his game. I wouldn't flinch if someone took him as the first WR off the board, especially in PPR. He's just so consistent.

96 catches, 1,221 yards, 10 TDs

 
White is a stud. Ryan loves going to him.....often. Will be harder to double team him this year with Julio Jones on the other side. Doesn't seem that ATL's defense is going to be good, so ATL may have to air it out to win games. #2WR on my board to AJ.

105 rec, 1350 yds, 10 TD.

 
Stats over the past 4 seasons:

2007: 83 rec, 1202 yds (14.5 ypc), 6 TDs, 130 targets, 64% catch rate, 1 TD per 13.8 rec

2008: 88 rec, 1382 yds (15.7 ypc), 7 TDs, 149 targets, 59% catch rate, 1 TD per 12.6 rec

2009: 85 rec, 1153 yds (13.6 ypc), 11 TDs, 165 targets, 52% catch rate, 1 TD per 7.7 rec

2010: 115 rec, 1389 yds (12.1 ypc), 10 TDs, 179 targets, 64% catch rate, 1 TD per 11.5 rec

Roddy White seems like a near-lock to get 80+ receptions, ~1200 yds and 8 TDs. But a few things worry me about him:

- Dependence on high number of targets

- Low ratio of TDs-to-receptions

- Declining yds per catch since 2008

That said, I'll project the following:

155 targets, 95 receptions (61% catch rate), 1230 yds (13 ypc), 8 TDs (1 TD per 11.8 rec)

 
Stats over the past 4 seasons:2007: 83 rec, 1202 yds (14.5 ypc), 6 TDs, 130 targets, 64% catch rate, 1 TD per 13.8 rec2008: 88 rec, 1382 yds (15.7 ypc), 7 TDs, 149 targets, 59% catch rate, 1 TD per 12.6 rec2009: 85 rec, 1153 yds (13.6 ypc), 11 TDs, 165 targets, 52% catch rate, 1 TD per 7.7 rec2010: 115 rec, 1389 yds (12.1 ypc), 10 TDs, 179 targets, 64% catch rate, 1 TD per 11.5 recRoddy White seems like a near-lock to get 80+ receptions, ~1200 yds and 8 TDs. But a few things worry me about him:- Dependence on high number of targets- Low ratio of TDs-to-receptions- Declining yds per catch since 2008That said, I'll project the following:155 targets, 95 receptions (61% catch rate), 1230 yds (13 ypc), 8 TDs (1 TD per 11.8 rec)
A couple explanations from a guy that has watched every Falcons snap in the referenced time period at least twice...Over the past few years, ATL has used White more and more as a possession receiver. Not because he can't make the big play, but because they have been lacking that weapon on the other side. Norwood's injuries have not helped the situation either. Basically, it was going to White (or since 2009, Gonzalez) on passing plays. Very predictable and I think it's praise to their abilities that Ryan and White have been as successful as they have been when the other team knows what is coming - which is likely a White target within 12 yards of the line of scrimmage.This off-season they changed that - they got Julio Jones for the other side. They got Rodgers to be a good receiving option out of the backfield. This will open up Douglas (who can be a weapon in the slot) and Roddy White to do more things more the field.This will reduce White's targets IMO (maybe 130-140, instead of the very high numbers of the past two years), but his YPC will go back up as well as his catch percentage because the windows for Ryan to get him the ball will be larger.Gonzalez' YPC will rise as well - he was constantly double-teamed in 2010.So for White, I would predict 135 targets, 65% catch rate = 88 catches x 13.5 YPC = 1200 yards, 9 TDs.
 
Stats over the past 4 seasons:2007: 83 rec, 1202 yds (14.5 ypc), 6 TDs, 130 targets, 64% catch rate, 1 TD per 13.8 rec2008: 88 rec, 1382 yds (15.7 ypc), 7 TDs, 149 targets, 59% catch rate, 1 TD per 12.6 rec2009: 85 rec, 1153 yds (13.6 ypc), 11 TDs, 165 targets, 52% catch rate, 1 TD per 7.7 rec2010: 115 rec, 1389 yds (12.1 ypc), 10 TDs, 179 targets, 64% catch rate, 1 TD per 11.5 recRoddy White seems like a near-lock to get 80+ receptions, ~1200 yds and 8 TDs. But a few things worry me about him:- Dependence on high number of targets- Low ratio of TDs-to-receptions- Declining yds per catch since 2008That said, I'll project the following:155 targets, 95 receptions (61% catch rate), 1230 yds (13 ypc), 8 TDs (1 TD per 11.8 rec)
A couple explanations from a guy that has watched every Falcons snap in the referenced time period at least twice...Over the past few years, ATL has used White more and more as a possession receiver. Not because he can't make the big play, but because they have been lacking that weapon on the other side. Norwood's injuries have not helped the situation either. Basically, it was going to White (or since 2009, Gonzalez) on passing plays. Very predictable and I think it's praise to their abilities that Ryan and White have been as successful as they have been when the other team knows what is coming - which is likely a White target within 12 yards of the line of scrimmage.This off-season they changed that - they got Julio Jones for the other side. They got Rodgers to be a good receiving option out of the backfield. This will open up Douglas (who can be a weapon in the slot) and Roddy White to do more things more the field.This will reduce White's targets IMO (maybe 130-140, instead of the very high numbers of the past two years), but his YPC will go back up as well as his catch percentage because the windows for Ryan to get him the ball will be larger.Gonzalez' YPC will rise as well - he was constantly double-teamed in 2010.So for White, I would predict 135 targets, 65% catch rate = 88 catches x 13.5 YPC = 1200 yards, 9 TDs.
:goodposting: Thanks for sharing a Falcon fan perspective, extremely helpful.
 
Stats over the past 4 seasons:2007: 83 rec, 1202 yds (14.5 ypc), 6 TDs, 130 targets, 64% catch rate, 1 TD per 13.8 rec2008: 88 rec, 1382 yds (15.7 ypc), 7 TDs, 149 targets, 59% catch rate, 1 TD per 12.6 rec2009: 85 rec, 1153 yds (13.6 ypc), 11 TDs, 165 targets, 52% catch rate, 1 TD per 7.7 rec2010: 115 rec, 1389 yds (12.1 ypc), 10 TDs, 179 targets, 64% catch rate, 1 TD per 11.5 recRoddy White seems like a near-lock to get 80+ receptions, ~1200 yds and 8 TDs. But a few things worry me about him:- Dependence on high number of targets- Low ratio of TDs-to-receptions- Declining yds per catch since 2008That said, I'll project the following:155 targets, 95 receptions (61% catch rate), 1230 yds (13 ypc), 8 TDs (1 TD per 11.8 rec)
A couple explanations from a guy that has watched every Falcons snap in the referenced time period at least twice...Over the past few years, ATL has used White more and more as a possession receiver. Not because he can't make the big play, but because they have been lacking that weapon on the other side. Norwood's injuries have not helped the situation either. Basically, it was going to White (or since 2009, Gonzalez) on passing plays. Very predictable and I think it's praise to their abilities that Ryan and White have been as successful as they have been when the other team knows what is coming - which is likely a White target within 12 yards of the line of scrimmage.This off-season they changed that - they got Julio Jones for the other side. They got Rodgers to be a good receiving option out of the backfield. This will open up Douglas (who can be a weapon in the slot) and Roddy White to do more things more the field.This will reduce White's targets IMO (maybe 130-140, instead of the very high numbers of the past two years), but his YPC will go back up as well as his catch percentage because the windows for Ryan to get him the ball will be larger.Gonzalez' YPC will rise as well - he was constantly double-teamed in 2010.So for White, I would predict 135 targets, 65% catch rate = 88 catches x 13.5 YPC = 1200 yards, 9 TDs.
:goodposting: Thanks for sharing a Falcon fan perspective, extremely helpful.
Agreed. When I dug into the numbers, I saw someone who produced with a massive number of targets and scaled his production back 20% with Julio's arrival. I still think he falls short of last year's numbers, but I am less bearish after reading this.
 
Awesome thread and I love the homer perspective. This is what makes this board hands down the best.

I am either picking Roddy or Andre Johnson at #5 this year. They are both locks to produce top 5ish numbers. So why not go with the sure thing instead of gambling on some running back?

 
I was just looking at the targets and couldn't help but notice Roddy White is leading the league in targets, yet I think he is probably around #15-#20 in ppg at the WR position in my non-ppr league. I don't own him in a single league, but am always thinking of next year. What the heck happened to him? Anybody expect him to rebound next year?

This year according to FBG scoring, he is ranked #13 with 10.6 targets per game. He is catching 54% of his targets. Actually, a rough chart might be better...

year, rank, targets/game, catch %

2011, 13, 10.6, 54%

2010, 3, 11.1, 65%

2009, 7, 10.3, 52%

2008, 6, 9.3, 59%

It looks like last year was the anomaly. In 2008 his ypr was 15.7, but it looks like 13 is more realistic going forward. 2009 and 2010 he had double digit TDs. If Julio Jones starts stealing more targets (currently 7.7 to Roddy's 10.6), especially in the red zone, it looks like Roddy White will be a WR2 going forward. I can't imagine his targets increasing next year and it doesn't appear that 65% is a realistic catch %, either. He has 22 red zone targets this year. He had 17, 20, 23 in 2008, 2009, and 2010. I imagine it is only downhill from here, as Julio Jones only has 7 this year. Those numbers are bound to even out at some point.

 
I was just looking at the targets and couldn't help but notice Roddy White is leading the league in targets, yet I think he is probably around #15-#20 in ppg at the WR position in my non-ppr league. I don't own him in a single league, but am always thinking of next year. What the heck happened to him? Anybody expect him to rebound next year?This year according to FBG scoring, he is ranked #13 with 10.6 targets per game. He is catching 54% of his targets. Actually, a rough chart might be better...year, rank, targets/game, catch %2011, 13, 10.6, 54%2010, 3, 11.1, 65%2009, 7, 10.3, 52%2008, 6, 9.3, 59%It looks like last year was the anomaly. In 2008 his ypr was 15.7, but it looks like 13 is more realistic going forward. 2009 and 2010 he had double digit TDs. If Julio Jones starts stealing more targets (currently 7.7 to Roddy's 10.6), especially in the red zone, it looks like Roddy White will be a WR2 going forward. I can't imagine his targets increasing next year and it doesn't appear that 65% is a realistic catch %, either. He has 22 red zone targets this year. He had 17, 20, 23 in 2008, 2009, and 2010. I imagine it is only downhill from here, as Julio Jones only has 7 this year. Those numbers are bound to even out at some point.
hes the #2 wr in fantasy in the last 4 weeks. he just didnt get the tds in the first half of the yr due to some strange circumstances
 
hes the #2 wr in fantasy in the last 4 weeks. he just didnt get the tds in the first half of the yr due to some strange circumstances
Um, no. He isn't the #2 WR in the last 4 weeks because he "just didn't get the TDs" earlier and he is now. He is the #2 WR in the last 4 weeks because he's been targeted an ungodly 13.25 times per game through the last 4 weeks. That trend will not be holding up for many reasons.
 
Does anyone happen to have the redzone Target data? I haven't watched every falcon game but I can recall several redzone trips this year where Ryan targeted Julio Jones on three straight endzone shots.

 
hes the #2 wr in fantasy in the last 4 weeks. he just didnt get the tds in the first half of the yr due to some strange circumstances
Um, no. He isn't the #2 WR in the last 4 weeks because he "just didn't get the TDs" earlier and he is now. He is the #2 WR in the last 4 weeks because he's been targeted an ungodly 13.25 times per game through the last 4 weeks. That trend will not be holding up for many reasons.
:confused: roody white 3 tds in the last 4 weeks. 3 tds in the first 9 weeks :shrug:
 
'shadyridr said:
'FF Ninja said:
'shadyridr said:
hes the #2 wr in fantasy in the last 4 weeks. he just didnt get the tds in the first half of the yr due to some strange circumstances
Um, no. He isn't the #2 WR in the last 4 weeks because he "just didn't get the TDs" earlier and he is now. He is the #2 WR in the last 4 weeks because he's been targeted an ungodly 13.25 times per game through the last 4 weeks. That trend will not be holding up for many reasons.
:confused: roody white 3 tds in the last 4 weeks. 3 tds in the first 9 weeks :shrug:
*sigh* I'm saying his increased production, catches + TDs, is a product of an uncharacteristic spike in targets rather than what you are implying - that it was merely a fluke that he didn't catch TDs earlier and things are just normalizing right now.Even with all these targets of late (which have bumped him up to the most targets in the league), White is still WR13 on the season. Next year when Julio Jones is healthy with a full training camp under his belt, White is likely going to be getting 9, maybe 10 targets a game. Unless his ypr spikes like it did in 2008 or he gets some lucky breaks in the TD department then Roddy White is no better than a fantasy WR2.
 
While lowering your expectations for White with Julio's emergence, you have to factor in that coverage and defensive plans will shift away from him commenserate with Julio's increased production. That will increase how open White gets (with worse coverage) and somewhat offset the slide your are projecting. And if Jones doesn't begin to show better hands in the red zone, he may not cut significantly into the Roddy TD count either. If Ryan is just getting better, as his play and the numbers of late suggest, and Turner continues to be less dominant, Roddy may not drop much at all in a more open and productive passing game? If people are downgrading RW, he's welcome on any of my rosters.

 
This is always the counterpoint to these situations. Player A loses his quality WR2 and that is great news for fantasy owners because he'll get more targets. Player B, who previously had a crappy player opposite him, now gets Player A's WR2 and that is great new for fantasy owners because Player B will be open more often. It just doesn't add up.

WRs need targets. White has gotten the most of any WR this year and is still WR13. He will probably not be a WR1 in the foreseeable future (playing on Falcons with Ryan and Jones). I don't think Matt Ryan is going to become elite. He is who he is: an average QB who throws a lot of passes for a moderate ypa. Julio Jones and Roddy White are both legit receivers. Whether they are worth drafting next year depends on their ADPs. I'll gladly take Roddy White if he's going around WR20. If he's going WR13 after finishing as WR13, then I'll pass due to expected decreased targets.

 
With all the complaints about Roddy, he's going to break the 1000 yard mark once again. With 2 to 3 more TD's, he should have his 2nd best overall season in his career. He's on pace to have his 2nd highest receptions as well.

 
Does anyone buy into the possibility that he suffered from nagging injuries and didn't really heal up until after the bye week?

Before bye: 60 yards/ game

After bye: 90 yards/ game

 

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