Rob Gronkowski & Aaron Hernandez, TEs, New England Patriots (1 Viewer)

2011 Player Spotlight Series

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Thread Topic: Rob Gronkowski & Aaron Hernandez, TEs, New England Patriots

Player Page Link: Rob Gronkowski Player Page

Player Page Link: Aaron Hernandez Player Page

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[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

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[*]Consensus Member Projections

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When I watched Patriot games last year I paid close attention to the TE position. I watched who was on the field and in what situations and it was clear to me that Gronkowski was the favored TE for the NE Patriots. He is a guy who can block as well as get downfield to make a tough catch. He's also a huge redzone threat due to the mismatch he creates with his size. I fell in love with this guy early on last year and even game him a nickname, The White Rhino. I think he's in for a very solid year and definately a very good TE for leagues that are more TE friendly.

56 catches for 615 yards and 10 Td's

Aaron Hernandez is a very young player with a lot of talent. He isn't your conventional blocking TE as he's more of a receiver playing the TE position. At first thought you'd think that might be a good thing but I felt his inability to block well or at least compared to Gronk kept him off the field at times. I think Hernandez is a guy who you can draft as a TE 2 that has upside due to the QB he plays with as well as his young age.

40 receptions for 480 yards and 4 Td's

You know theres alot of good quality backup TEs in the league, like Fred Davis for example, I feel people are drinking too much coolaid on Hernandez and dont realize that the guy is going to be next to worthless.

How many top TEs in the league besides Finley cant block?

"Oh we're going to use alot of two TE sets..." How many times have you heard that and it turned out to be lip service?

Rob Gronkowski 65 receptions 900 yds 10 TDs

Aaron Hernandez 25rec, 350 yds 2 TDs

The guy is a rich mans Fred Davis, I think Id rather have Fred Davis at this point atleast he's close to being a FA.

Come on Norris, zero Td's really? Hernandez was one of the youngest players in the league last year and now he's going to regress so much in his 2nd year at TE that he won't catch a TD with Tom Brady as the QB?

Gronk 750 yards 9 TDs

Hernandez 450 yards 4 TDs

'Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:

Come on Norris, zero Td's really? Hernandez was one of the youngest players in the league last year and now he's going to regress so much in his 2nd year at TE that he won't catch a TD with Tom Brady as the QB?

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I changed it to 2 TDs I guess he could get lucky a couple times and get a TD but I dont see that happening very often his numbers plummeted as soon as they traded for Branch and The Gronk getting healthy, I see him being a big disappointment this year because of having these two guys there and healthy the whole year.

I think you guys are underrating Hernandez's ability's, he has something Gronk will never have and that is Top5 TE Fantasy potential!! Hernandez has elite WR skills and is a serious miss match for most all defenders, if he gets separation he can take one to the house from anywhere on the field!! All it will take is NE to suffer a couple blows at WR and I think Hernandez will see the field more as a option than Gronk and put up good numbers!!

Gronk 38 rec 400 yards 5 TD

Hernandez 55 rec 750 yards 7 TD

'therokie0070 said:

I think you guys are underrating Hernandez's ability's, he has something Gronk will never have and that is Top5 TE Fantasy potential!! Hernandez has elite WR skills and is a serious miss match for most all defenders, if he gets separation he can take one to the house from anywhere on the field!! All it will take is NE to suffer a couple blows at WR and I think Hernandez will see the field more as a option than Gronk and put up good numbers!!

Gronk 38 rec 400 yards 5 TD

Hernandez 55 rec 750 yards 7 TD

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Gronkowski is just as much of a mismatch lol. Gronkowski has several things Hernandez doesnt (whereas Hernandez barely has one thing Gronkowski doesnt, Gronkowski isnt slow and has arguably just as good hands and is taller and stronger) instead of posting a list ill just start with the most important: Everytime Aaron Hernandez is on the field, its to catch a ball and everyone knows it.Although I do agree, I think he will line up wide more this year than last. I honestly thought NE was gonna make him a WR.

No one underrating Hernandez's ability.

Gronk is just a better all-around TE.

In todays nfl, you don't need to be a complete tight end. We are talking fantasy...no points for blocking in any of my leagues. Hernandez could be the next dallas clark type joker weapon.

Hernandez: 88 targets, 60 catches, 760 yards, 4 TDs.

Gronkowski: 66 targets, 47 catches, 615 yards, 8 TDs.

I think Hernandez's value is closely tied to how poor the NE WRs are. Should they acquire Steve Smith or another good one, Hernandez's numbers drop pretty sharply.

It really wouldn't suprise me to see Gronk end up with only 45ish catches but 15 TD's. Brady loves him in the red zone.

Well, the stats say that in 2010, Gronk wasn't preferred that much over Hernandez inside the 10 YL, so I don't think the TD difference between the two will be anymore than it was in 2010. Hernandez is the best mismatch NE has on the outside for a fade pattern (Branch? Welker? Tate? at this point), so he is a viable option, just like Gronk on the play-action fake.

I think what New England did with their rookie tight ends last year was impressive as both were able to make immediate impacts. If I was pressed to list a preference I'd take Gronkowski. I'm a big believer in the notion that a tight end that is a strong blocker with above average receiving skills is in a position to be a valuable fantasy producer because he'll be on the field more than an offensive specialist type. The only exceptions being the tight ends that seem to play almost exclusively as H-Backs and who also rarely leave the field. Hernandez has excellent offensive skills but is a liability as a blocker so he won't be an everydown player. Gronkowski is a strong blocker and also possesses mismatch opportunity for the offense. Hernandez is the superior offensive player but Gronkowski is the superior all around player. IMHO that makes Gronkowski the more valuable fantasy player due to increased opportunity and the ability to fool defenses. Hernandez while difficult to cover, won't surprise the defense. They know why he's in the game and what he'll be doing. With Gronkowski's ability to block he can also catch the D off guard and slip into routes where due to his size he's a huge target and a load to tackle. That's part of what makes him a great red zone option. He'll be lethal inside the 10 yard line his entire career. I think you can make an argument that some of Hernandez's effectiveness is tied to the fact that the Patriots have the luxury (due to Gronkowski) to use Hernandez solely as a pass catching threat because they have have a strong blocking tight end that can also provide protection. So Gronkowski actually makes Hernandez better. The opposite cannot be said.

I see Hernandez putting up very similar numbers to a year ago ... 50 - 600 with 6 TDs. I give Gronkowski a bump in catches and yards while regressing slightly with TD's ... 59 catches - 700 yds and 9 TD's.

Can everyone please stop saying hernandez is a blocking liability...

If you have another source for blocking ratings other than PFF, please share. Otherwise, the blocking on that site has hernandez as an above average blocker, 14th overall for all tight ends, in 2010.

The blocking comments about hernandez are completely false that are being thrown around the shark pool.

'NorrisB said:

You know theres alot of good quality backup TEs in the league, like Fred Davis for example, I feel people are drinking too much coolaid on Hernandez and dont realize that the guy is going to be next to worthless. How many top TEs in the league besides Finley cant block?"Oh we're going to use alot of two TE sets..." How many times have you heard that and it turned out to be lip service? Rob Gronkowski 65 receptions 900 yds 10 TDsAaron Hernandez 25rec, 350 yds 2 TDsThe guy is a rich mans Fred Davis, I think Id rather have Fred Davis at this point atleast he's close to being a FA.

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I agree with you for the most part but they move Hernandez around a bit but i see Gronk getting the fantasy numbers and Hernandez being on the field just as much.

'fdctrumpet said:

Can everyone please stop saying hernandez is a blocking liability...If you have another source for blocking ratings other than PFF, please share. Otherwise, the blocking on that site has hernandez as an above average blocker, 14th overall for all tight ends, in 2010.The blocking comments about hernandez are completely false that are being thrown around the shark pool.

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Begs the question, are you arguing for Hernandez NFL ability with his already half as many snaps as Gronkowski and that 62% of those are blocking plays? Or that he has a higher FF ceiling, because his half as many snaps only 62% of them are blocking plays?

The difference in snap counts is negated by the fact that gronk is blocking..including pass blocking on a much higher percentage if his total snaps.

Both got skills, but Hernandez is a game changer.

AH - 72, 800, 5

RG - 54, 500, 6

'therokie0070 said:

I[b] think you guys are underrating Hernandez's ability's, he has something Gronk will never have and that is Top5 TE Fantasy potential!! Hernandez has elite WR skills and is a serious miss match for most all defenders, if he gets separation he can take one to the house from anywhere on the field!! All it will take is NE to suffer a couple blows at WR and I think Hernandez will see the field more as a option than Gronk and put up good numbers!!

Gronk 38 rec 400 yards 5 TD

Hernandez 55 rec 750 yards 7 TD

Click to expand...

Go to the player page for Gronkowski and you'll see he finished his rookie season as the No. 5 TE. You don't have to use the word potential for The White Rhino, he's already there.

'fdctrumpet said:

The difference in snap counts is negated by the fact that gronk is blocking..including pass blocking on a much higher percentage if his total snaps.

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It is and it isn't. NE also uses that to their advantage because defenses know he stays in to block, so NE sends him out and defenses aren't expecting it. When Hernandez is in there, they know it's not to block so they're on their toes as he's probably going out for a pass play.As I mentioned before, I know I like my TE on the field. When you're on the bench, I know you're not getting a catch and more importantly, it means the coach thinks the offense is better off with him there.There are some things to like about Hernandez but he's no more than a decent TE 2 heading into this season.

'fdctrumpet said:

Can everyone please stop saying hernandez is a blocking liability...If you have another source for blocking ratings other than PFF, please share. Otherwise, the blocking on that site has hernandez as an above average blocker, 14th overall for all tight ends, in 2010.The blocking comments about hernandez are completely false that are being thrown around the shark pool.

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I won't quote rankings but I can at least provide the scouting report on Hernandez's blocking from Frank Coyle (Draft Insiders)."... has the athleticism to block on the move with the technique and agility to sustain the block the full play. As an inline perforrmer he fails to get a strong push at the line of scrimmage and relies on finesse to neutralize an opponent. He lacks the pop to drive a big backer off the line and may struggle early in two tight end sets as an inline performer."Coyle isn't as harsh in his criticism but isn't exactly glowing either. Worth noting these scouting reports are for the prospect's NFL projection, not fantasy. For what it's worth Coyle had Gronkowski rated as the top tight end in the 2010 class. Hernandez was ranked 6th.

It sounds like that evaluation is from the University of Florida. I am speaking about 2010 NFL play. Skill sets can change/improve from a draft evaluation to an NFL skills evaluation after they begin playing. NFL draft reports and college assessments are the best we have to attempt to rank players as they enter the NFL, but it is such a guessing game because there are so many variables to the equation. What I am saying is that Aaron Hernandez, the 2010 New England Patriot - not Florida Gator - was an above-average blocker when evaluated against his peers at the tight end position, better than many who are perceived to better by the FF community.

To break it down, Hernandez was a run-blocker on 178 plays, Gronkowski on 447 plays. When I calculated their rating on a per play basis, Hernandez was even closer because he had less opportunities, landing close to the top-5 at the TE position. Gronkowski still ahead, but the difference was far less than the cumulative results on the season.

My point is that the two points that are made to prefer Gronkowski in this comparison are his blocking ability (I've proven it is not a huge difference based on a per play basis) and red zone production (skills), which Gronkowski only had a slight advantage in red zone production in 2010. Hernandez however has a huge advantage in the areas of athletic ability as a pure receiver, use as a joker in the modern tight end position and run after the catch capabilities.

Please dispute the above points where Hernandez has the clear advantage. I have addressed the two points Gronkowski-supports reference routinely.

'fdctrumpet said:

To break it down, Hernandez was a run-blocker on 178 plays, Gronkowski on 447 plays. When I calculated their rating on a per play basis, Hernandez was even closer because he had less opportunities, landing close to the top-5 at the TE position. Gronkowski still ahead, but the difference was far less than the cumulative results on the season. My point is that the two points that are made to prefer Gronkowski in this comparison are his blocking ability (I've proven it is not a huge difference based on a per play basis) and red zone production (skills), which Gronkowski only had a slight advantage in red zone production in 2010. Hernandez however has a huge advantage in the areas of athletic ability as a pure receiver, use as a joker in the modern tight end position and run after the catch capabilities.Please dispute the above points where Hernandez has the clear advantage. I have addressed the two points Gronkowski-supports reference routinely.

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I dont think anyone will, but it seems like picking and choosing. The only point anyone is making about Gronkowski being better at blocking (which is indisputable) is that his utility gives him more opportunities (also indisputable) simple as looking at their snaps taken, nearly double is a considerable number.

another thing that I found interesting in this situation is the number of TEs that the Patriots drafted this yr. Does that mean that they may on occasion move AH to the outside as a WR and run some sort of 3 or 4 TE/HBack formation? Maybe some formations where they start tight (like goal line) and then shift to 2 or 3 wide set? Should be interesting.

Gronk's a manbeast and I think its obvious at this point that he is the better ALL-AROUND TE but again we are talking fantasy and AH is the flashier player.

As an AH owner and a huge fan of his ability to run after the catch i'm hoping for him to get a lot more opportunities on the outside.

But, as a Steeler fan I hope they both suck.

Just Being Honest

'shortbow said:

'fdctrumpet said:

To break it down, Hernandez was a run-blocker on 178 plays, Gronkowski on 447 plays. When I calculated their rating on a per play basis, Hernandez was even closer because he had less opportunities, landing close to the top-5 at the TE position. Gronkowski still ahead, but the difference was far less than the cumulative results on the season.

My point is that the two points that are made to prefer Gronkowski in this comparison are his blocking ability (I've proven it is not a huge difference based on a per play basis) and red zone production (skills), which Gronkowski only had a slight advantage in red zone production in 2010. Hernandez however has a huge advantage in the areas of athletic ability as a pure receiver, use as a joker in the modern tight end position and run after the catch capabilities.

Please dispute the above points where Hernandez has the clear advantage. I have addressed the two points Gronkowski-supports reference routinely.

Click to expand...

I dont think anyone will, but it seems like picking and choosing. The only point anyone is making about Gronkowski being better at blocking (which is indisputable) is that his utility gives him more opportunities (also indisputable) simple as looking at their snaps taken, nearly double is a considerable number.

Click to expand...

The Snap count wasn't nearly double:

Gronkowski page with Patriots TE Snaps played

Rob Gronkowski led Patriots tight ends with 756 snaps in 2010. Aaron Hernandez played 486 snaps while veteran Alge Crumpler was at 540.

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That is 55% more snaps, but Gronkowski also started 11 of 16 games for the Patriots last year whereas Hernandez only started 7 of 14 games. Despite the higher number of snaps played, Gronkowski did not produce 55% more catches or yards then Hernandez. TDs scored was certainly higher, but TDs are the stat that are most likely to fluctuate from year over year (take a look at Jason Wittens numbers), hence why we focus more on targets, catches, and yards.

Gronkowski and Hernandez are both players who are worth targeting in your drafts. Gronkowski is very reliable and will have a very well defined role, and he will be productive as he earned Brady's trust last year, especially in the second half of the year when Brady locked in on him. He is the "safer" pick, but he will also come with a higher price in terms of his ADP in league drafts. What Hernandez did last year was also amazing, given that he was also only 20 years old at the start of the season. His ADP is significantly lower then Gronkowski and he can be acquired at a much lower price with an enormous upside given that he is more in the mold of the new hybrid style of TE that plays more like a WR.

'Faust said:

'shortbow said:

'fdctrumpet said:

To break it down, Hernandez was a run-blocker on 178 plays, Gronkowski on 447 plays. When I calculated their rating on a per play basis, Hernandez was even closer because he had less opportunities, landing close to the top-5 at the TE position. Gronkowski still ahead, but the difference was far less than the cumulative results on the season.

My point is that the two points that are made to prefer Gronkowski in this comparison are his blocking ability (I've proven it is not a huge difference based on a per play basis) and red zone production (skills), which Gronkowski only had a slight advantage in red zone production in 2010. Hernandez however has a huge advantage in the areas of athletic ability as a pure receiver, use as a joker in the modern tight end position and run after the catch capabilities.

Please dispute the above points where Hernandez has the clear advantage. I have addressed the two points Gronkowski-supports reference routinely.

Click to expand...

I dont think anyone will, but it seems like picking and choosing. The only point anyone is making about Gronkowski being better at blocking (which is indisputable) is that his utility gives him more opportunities (also indisputable) simple as looking at their snaps taken, nearly double is a considerable number.

Click to expand...

The Snap count wasn't nearly double:

Gronkowski page with Patriots TE Snaps played

Rob Gronkowski led Patriots tight ends with 756 snaps in 2010. Aaron Hernandez played 486 snaps while veteran Alge Crumpler was at 540.

Click to expand...

That is 55% more snaps, but Gronkowski also started 11 of 16 games for the Patriots last year whereas Hernandez only started 7 of 14 games. Despite the higher number of snaps played, Gronkowski did not produce 55% more catches or yards then Hernandez. TDs scored was certainly higher, but TDs are the stat that are most likely to fluctuate from year over year (take a look at Jason Wittens numbers), hence why we focus more on targets, catches, and yards.

Gronkowski and Hernandez are both players who are worth targeting in your drafts. Gronkowski is very reliable and will have a very well defined role, and he will be productive as he earned Brady's trust last year, especially in the second half of the year when Brady locked in on him. He is the "safer" pick, but he will also come with a higher price in terms of his ADP in league drafts. What Hernandez did last year was also amazing, given that he was also only 20 years old at the start of the season. His ADP is significantly lower then Gronkowski and he can be acquired at a much lower price with an enormous upside given that he is more in the mold of the new hybrid style of TE that plays more like a WR.

Click to expand...

This thread isn't complete without referencing this one:

Gronk vs. Hernandez thread

There is a great article linked in that thread that talks about how the Patriots are one of the teams that moved a few years ago to using multiple TEs to create mismatches - a great read for those of us who feel that landing either Gronkowski or Hernandez (or both if your league roster sizes are big enough) can be a good strategy in your dynasty leagues.

FWIW Gronk was the #3 TE in PPR leagues in the 2nd half last year. The guy is the new Todd Heap. Hernandez has a lower floor and ceiling in NE. No question I think he could produce if Gronk went down. Fred Davis is a good comp to Hernandez.

I always believe upgrades to the WR core will always have more of an impact on Hernandez (and on field time) than Gronk (who is entrenched as their #1 TE)

Gronkowki 58 700 10

Gronk is a monster : 55 catches 670 yards 8tds

Hernandez : 45 Catches 580 Yards 4 tds

I was all about Gronkowski as my late draft TE steal, thinking of avoiding overdrafting TEs in the middle rounds and loading up on position players. Most of my leagues start 3 RB and 3-4 WRs, so filling all those slots made the most sense to me. However after watching these preseason games, I see Hernandez really torching defenses, and being one of Brady's primary targets. Suddenly I'm not so sold on Gronk. Anyone else starting to get nervous about Gronk as the (current rankings) #6 TE?

'CompetitiveEdgeFootball said:

I was all about Gronkowski as my late draft TE steal, thinking of avoiding overdrafting TEs in the middle rounds and loading up on position players. Most of my leagues start 3 RB and 3-4 WRs, so filling all those slots made the most sense to me. However after watching these preseason games, I see Hernandez really torching defenses, and being one of Brady's primary targets. Suddenly I'm not so sold on Gronk. Anyone else starting to get nervous about Gronk as the (current rankings) #6 TE?

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I had no idea FBGs had him ranked as high as I did. But no, not worried at all.

I think Hernandez is going to have an excellent season, especially in PPR leagues, if he stays healthy. Last year he started out red-hot with 34 catches for 436 yards through the first 8 games. Then he got benched for all but about 6-7 snaps of the Pittsburgh game and didn't see a pass thrown his way, and his season started to slide downhill. He ended up hurting his hip at some point in the next couple games and getting held out of the last two weeks of the year, which helped Gronkowski emerge down the stretch. Still, even with the second half slide, Hernandez put up 45-563-6 in basically 13 games worth of action.

Hernandez is a matchup problem for most defenses, he's fully healthy, and he has a year of experience under his belt. I think the Patriots will be using him all over the field this year. I also think the Pats will have a top-3 passing attack (with a good chance at #1 overall) which means plenty of points to go around.

I feel like if both Hernandez and Gronkowski stay healthy, they're going to end up in the same point range, but you can get Hernandez 3-4 rounds later. I see something like:

Gronkowski 40 catches, 510 yards, 9 TDs

Hernandez 52 catches, 640 yards, 6 TDs

looks like this is gonna be another year of crystal balling each weeks d. Both are freaking studs.

'Hipple said:

looks like this is gonna be another year of crystal balling each weeks d. Both are freaking studs.

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Both are freaking studs as pass-catching TEs running against LBs and Safeties. But a pass-catcher who can't block LBs and Safeties is called a WR. And the Pats have got OK options at WR already. Gronk remains the guy to own IMO.

With the departure of Crumpler, both of these guys will be even more heavily involved in the offense. I suspect both will be startable.

'wdcrob said:

'Hipple said:

looks like this is gonna be another year of crystal balling each weeks d. Both are freaking studs.

Click to expand...

Both are freaking studs as pass-catching TEs running against LBs and Safeties. But a pass-catcher who can't block LBs and Safeties is called a WR. And the Pats have got OK options at WR already. Gronk remains the guy to own IMO.

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I agree Gronkowski's a better blocker, but Hernandez isn't bad either - there might be some LBs that can beat him consistently, but not safeties. Plus the Pats run a lot of 2 TE sets. You'll probably be right if the Pats go more single TE this year, but I think they're going to play both TEs more this year than last.

'wdcrob said:

'Hipple said:

looks like this is gonna be another year of crystal balling each weeks d. Both are freaking studs.

Click to expand...

Both are freaking studs as pass-catching TEs running against LBs and Safeties. But a pass-catcher who can't block LBs and Safeties is called a WR. And the Pats have got OK options at WR already. Gronk remains the guy to own IMO.

Click to expand...

In the buccs game they spotlighted gronk pancaking a d-linemen...

'Hipple said:

'wdcrob said:

'Hipple said:

looks like this is gonna be another year of crystal balling each weeks d. Both are freaking studs.

Click to expand...

Both are freaking studs as pass-catching TEs running against LBs and Safeties. But a pass-catcher who can't block LBs and Safeties is called a WR. And the Pats have got OK options at WR already. Gronk remains the guy to own IMO.

Click to expand...

In the buccs game they spotlighted gronk pancaking a d-linemen...

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I missed this, ive been looking everywhere for a highlight to no avail.

Fun to revisit these threads. Hernandez is probably going to meet everyone's projections of around 500-600 yards and 5-7 TDs. Gronkowski is blowing his projections out of the water.

i had both in week 2 ... hernandez got hurt ... i stuck with gronkowski. i'm very happy.

'bweiser said:

i had both in week 2 ... hernandez got hurt ... i stuck with gronkowski. i'm very happy.

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Hernandez is very solid... tonight put him over 400 yards and his 6th TD was called back. He's right around 10th in points for the position, which is where he belongs right now, IMO.That being said, got Gronk in the 10th round and don't expect to get so lucky in the years to come. His production puts him at about 10th for all pass catchers, PERIOD. 140 standard league points through tonight. The kid is an absolute stud in every phase of the game.

'shortbow said:

'therokie0070 said:

I think you guys are underrating Hernandez's ability's, he has something Gronk will never have and that is Top5 TE Fantasy potential!! Hernandez has elite WR skills and is a serious miss match for most all defenders, if he gets separation he can take one to the house from anywhere on the field!! All it will take is NE to suffer a couple blows at WR and I think Hernandez will see the field more as a option than Gronk and put up good numbers!!

Gronk 38 rec 400 yards 5 TD

Hernandez 55 rec 750 yards 7 TD

Click to expand...

Gronkowski is just as much of a mismatch lol. Gronkowski has several things Hernandez doesnt (whereas Hernandez barely has one thing Gronkowski doesnt, Gronkowski isnt slow and has arguably just as good hands and is taller and stronger) instead of posting a list ill just start with the most important: Everytime Aaron Hernandez is on the field, its to catch a ball and everyone knows it.Although I do agree, I think he will line up wide more this year than last. I honestly thought NE was gonna make him a WR.

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I remember reading this post prior to the 2011 season and thinking about it often during the season. I was originally of the belief that Aaron Hernandez was the better player of the two. I was putting too much emphasis on Hernandez's quick moves in the open field and projecting him as a TE with nearly unrivaled moves. I still like Hernandez's skills, but I think the best way to view him is as a WR. As a WR his skills are not unrivaled at all, they are normalized when viewed through that prism. The reason I think it's best to view him as a WR is because he's 6'1'' 240 lbs. Yes he is a match up problem of sorts, but treated as WR he's generally a bigger, slower type of player. Conventional answers defensively are more readily available for a player in his mold. Gronk is 6'6'' 265 lbs. This is where shortbow makes a critical distinction: "Gronkowski has several things Hernandez doesnt"

Gronk is a mismatch, but in a different way. Generally too muscular and tall for faster players to handle and athletic enough to shake generally bigger and more physical defenders. The type of player or defense that it takes to stop Gronk is in short supply, isn't as well evolved historically in the NFL because of the rarity, and often involves combination coverages that leave counters available for the offenses to exploit elsewhere in easier 1 on 1s.

So while both Hernandez and Gronk create mismatches what's the biggest difference between the two types of mismatches that are occuring in 1 on 1 situations? I think that the key difference between the two mismatches is that Hernandez forces a certain type of player to cover him which negates his quickness advantage, his best attribute. Gronk is too big to use that strategy against. Generally smaller faster players can't maneuver around his frame. Gronk's hands are very strong, so any jumpball situations really favor him especially if a defender doesn't have the length to jump with him as he boxes out. Which leads to the strategy against Gronk utilizing generally bigger slower players to combat his size and strength first. So the real difference between the mismatches in terms of competitive advantage leads to Gronk usually having the quickness advantage while Hernandez tends to actually be at a quickness disadvantage or stalemate more often.

As the season went on I tried to find common threads amongst super elite TEs. I'm basing a lot of my theory on common threads amongst Gates, Graham, and Gronk in their most productive years. I also consider Vernon Davis, JerMichael Finley, Tony Gonzalez, and a couple others that I think are physically talented enough to perhaps ascend into the upper echelon and think about why they have or haven't in certain ways. It's still a work in progress, but here are some ideas on what I think explains it:

--- The TE is largely a function of the QB and offensive philosophy. Elite passers help tremendously. (Rivers, Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Peyton, Stafford, Ben, Eli)

--- Great hands, catch radius. Huge prerequisite for any pass catcher. This is why I think JerMichael Finley will never be elite. I don't think that his hands are naturally good enough to actually develop the type of trust that Brees has in Graham's hands. Gronk has incredible hands especially in traffic.

--- Athletic frame and coordination. This is a little harder to define the minimum requirements because it encompasses speed, balance, quickness, functional strength and an understanding of body positioning. This probably explains the correlation between TEs and basketball players in many cases, but not all. There are esily a dozen+ guys who physically meet these requirements.

I think that together these things along with proper work ethic towards greatness are the recipe for consistent elite production for NFL TEs.

Another factor that I think needs more exploration and thought is the presence of an elite WR on the same team. I need to observe Pettigrew more to see if he has the hands. I am convinced that Stafford is elite and then think deeply about how Calvin Johnson plays into things as the unquestioned #1 option. I look at Green Bay as a very interesting team because Rodgers is an elite passer, Finley has the talent, and Greg Jennings is a legit #1. Giving plenty of attention to Finley and why he hasn't performed at an elite level I realized that it was his hands. I don't think Greg Jennings robbed him of opportunity or anything like that. So I'm still unclear of the effects a #1 WR really has on a beast TE. I actually think they help each other significantly in most cases in the right offensive framework.

'Drop said:

'shortbow said:

'therokie0070 said:

I think you guys are underrating Hernandez's ability's, he has something Gronk will never have and that is Top5 TE Fantasy potential!! Hernandez has elite WR skills and is a serious miss match for most all defenders, if he gets separation he can take one to the house from anywhere on the field!! All it will take is NE to suffer a couple blows at WR and I think Hernandez will see the field more as a option than Gronk and put up good numbers!!

Gronk 38 rec 400 yards 5 TD

Hernandez 55 rec 750 yards 7 TD

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Gronkowski is just as much of a mismatch lol. Gronkowski has several things Hernandez doesnt (whereas Hernandez barely has one thing Gronkowski doesnt, Gronkowski isnt slow and has arguably just as good hands and is taller and stronger) instead of posting a list ill just start with the most important: Everytime Aaron Hernandez is on the field, its to catch a ball and everyone knows it.Although I do agree, I think he will line up wide more this year than last. I honestly thought NE was gonna make him a WR.

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I remember reading this post prior to the 2011 season and thinking about it often during the season. I was originally of the belief that Aaron Hernandez was the better player of the two. I was putting too much emphasis on Hernandez's quick moves in the open field and projecting him as a TE with nearly unrivaled moves... ...Gronk is 6'6'' 265 lbs. This is where shortbow makes a critical distinction: "Gronkowski has several things Hernandez doesnt"...

Gronk is a mismatch, but in a different way. Generally too muscular and tall for faster players to handle and athletic enough to shake generally bigger and more physical defenders. The type of player or defense that it takes to stop Gronk is in short supply, isn't as well evolved historically in the NFL because of the rarity, and often involves combination coverages that leave counters available for the offenses to exploit elsewhere in easier 1 on 1s.

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totally agree on this - I felt like Hernandez was going to have a big season (and it turned out even bigger than I originally projected in this thread), but I seriously underestimated Gronkowski's potential. The dude is just a monster.

...I still like Hernandez's skills, but I think the best way to view him is as a WR. As a WR his skills are not unrivaled at all, they are normalized when viewed through that prism. The reason I think it's best to view him as a WR is because he's 6'1'' 240 lbs. Yes he is a match up problem of sorts, but treated as WR he's generally a bigger, slower type of player. Conventional answers defensively are more readily available for a player in his mold...

...I think that the key difference between the two mismatches is that Hernandez forces a certain type of player to cover him which negates his quickness advantage, his best attribute...

...So the real difference between the mismatches in terms of competitive advantage leads to Gronk usually having the quickness advantage while Hernandez tends to actually be at a quickness disadvantage or stalemate more often.

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I think you've gone all the way around to underrating Hernandez now with this part, though - Gronk is a bigger mismatch, true. But Hernandez is also one of the best receiving threats at TE in the league - the guy finished 4th in yardage, 5th in catches and 6th in TDs among all TEs despite only playing 14 games, and he can play any offensive skill position (other than QB). Gronkowski's the more complete traditional TE and has become near unstoppable in that role, but Hernandez is a hell of a weapon in his own right. I think they're both elite offensive threats, and with both these guys only being in their second season, it's incredible how well the Pats have set themselves up at TE for the future.

Targets Yards TDs Yards/TargetRob Gronkowski 124 1327 17 10.70 Wes Welker 173 1573 9 9.09 Chad Ochocinco 32 276 1 8.63 Aaron Hernandez 113 910 7 8.05 Deion Branch 90 702 5 7.80I'm still not convinced that Hernandez has a long-term future as a major weapon. He's basically playing as a WR - and I'd argue that he's nothing special, especially when you take into account that, unlike Gronkowski and Welker, he's virtually never seeing a double-team. Though he does offer outstanding size and blocking compared to other WRs.Guys who excel because they're seeing single coverage from lesser coverage defenders and their team has a ridiculous number of passing attempts tend not to be difference makers over the long run. (c.f. Collie, Austin)

'wdcrob said:

Targets Yards TDs Yards/TargetRob Gronkowski 124 1327 17 10.70 Wes Welker 173 1573 9 9.09 Chad Ochocinco 32 276 1 8.63 Aaron Hernandez 113 910 7 8.05 Deion Branch 90 702 5 7.80I'm still not convinced that Hernandez has a long-term future as a major weapon. He's basically playing as a WR - and I'd argue that he's nothing special, especially when you take into account that, unlike Gronkowski and Welker, he's virtually never seeing a double-team. Though he does offer outstanding size and blocking compared to other WRs.Guys who excel because they're seeing single coverage from lesser coverage defenders and their team has a ridiculous number of passing attempts tend not to be difference makers over the long run. (c.f. Collie, Austin)

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The difference is that even if Hernandez ends up as a mediocre WR, you're playing him at TE on your fantasy team. It's somewhat akin to saying Mark Sanchez is a mediocre QB, but if you could take his points and play him at RB, he'd be a stud.

'Rich Conway said:

'wdcrob said:

Targets Yards TDs Yards/TargetRob Gronkowski 124 1327 17 10.70 Wes Welker 173 1573 9 9.09 Chad Ochocinco 32 276 1 8.63 Aaron Hernandez 113 910 7 8.05 Deion Branch 90 702 5 7.80I'm still not convinced that Hernandez has a long-term future as a major weapon. He's basically playing as a WR - and I'd argue that he's nothing special, especially when you take into account that, unlike Gronkowski and Welker, he's virtually never seeing a double-team. Though he does offer outstanding size and blocking compared to other WRs.Guys who excel because they're seeing single coverage from lesser coverage defenders and their team has a ridiculous number of passing attempts tend not to be difference makers over the long run. (c.f. Collie, Austin)

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The difference is that even if Hernandez ends up as a mediocre WR, you're playing him at TE on your fantasy team. It's somewhat akin to saying Mark Sanchez is a mediocre QB, but if you could take his points and play him at RB, he'd be a stud.

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No doubt - for as long as he's on the field he's going to be a great option. Just saying I think he's susceptible to having a reduced role in the offense.

I think you've gone all the way around to underrating Hernandez now with this part, though - Gronk is a bigger mismatch, true. But Hernandez is also one of the best receiving threats at TE in the league - the guy finished 4th in yardage, 5th in catches and 6th in TDs among all TEs despite only playing 14 games, and he can play any offensive skill position (other than QB). Gronkowski's the more complete traditional TE and has become near unstoppable in that role, but Hernandez is a hell of a weapon in his own right. I think they're both elite offensive threats, and with both these guys only being in their second season, it's incredible how well the Pats have set themselves up at TE for the future.

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I'm still a big Hernandez fan. My point is that Gronk has all the factors to be something Hernandez can't be. Gronk's numbers are great for a WR, Hernandez's numbers are strong for a WR eligible as a TE. Huge difference. Identifying the environment required for a TE to emerge as such a consistent producer is very profitable for fantasy purposes. Knowing this will help evaluate situational upsides realistically and usually in a way that many people aren't seeing clearly. The significant concept here is knowing what kind of strategic options teams have against a player's skillset. Only certain situations allow for a team to trump the adjustments they face so easily. That environment creates the opportunity for a super elite TE to emerge like a boss, as the kids say.