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Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

Player Page Link: Tom Brady Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
No reason to believe that Tom Brady won't be a top tier QB. Welker should be 100%, and with Branch, Tate, Gronkowski, Hernandez, and Woodhead, has a solid group to throw to. The NE offense runs through Brady. He's a steal at QB5, since you can get him in the 3rd round in most leagues.....get a solid RB1, a solid WR1, and Brady in the 3rd? Sign me up for that.

4250 yds passing, 31 TD, 14 Int

75 yds rushing, 1 TD

 
Tom Brady is coming off an MVP season. The Patriots should have an improved WR corps this year, with Branch getting a full(ish) year in the offense, Welker being a year removed from injury, and links to a number of veteran WRs including Ocho, who could very easily pull a Corey Dillon if he moved from Cinci to New England. They have Woodhead, an apparently healthy Faulk, and added a good pass catching RB in the draft. They have two young stud TEs. They pass the ball well inside the red zone. Brady just set the interception record. The X factor is really just the offensive line. And it's non-trivial.

 
Let's get the conversation rolling here...do you see Brady matching, exceeding or falling short of last year's fantasy excellence?

Would you draft him before Peyton Manning? Drew Brees?

 
Let's get the conversation rolling here...do you see Brady matching, exceeding or falling short of last year's fantasy excellence? Would you draft him before Peyton Manning? Drew Brees?
I think he will fall short fantasy wise. I wouldn't draft Brady before Vick, Rivers, Rodgers, Manning, or Brees
 
I think Brady is one of the safest QB's for 2011. He should match last years fantasy production. I'd lump Brady right there with Manning, Rivers, Brees, and even Romo. My top tier is Vick and Rodgers.

4175 yds passing, 33 TD's, 10 INT's.

50 yds rushing / 1 TD

 
Tom Brady is very consistent, he's always been a leader but now that he's aging, you can really see him taking that role to another level.

I expect Tom Brady to have a solid fantasy season because he is a great quarterback. I don't love that his big threat is gone in Moss but the passing attack is strong with Gronkowski and Hernandez.

3940 yards, 29 Td's and 10 Int's

80 yards rushing, 1td

 
Let's get the conversation rolling here...do you see Brady matching, exceeding or falling short of last year's fantasy excellence? Would you draft him before Peyton Manning? Drew Brees?
Falling short. Patriots offense was ridiculously lucky in the turnover game last season- 9 total TOs is unrepeatable and they will probably be in the 15-20 range (still in the top half of the league). More turnovers = fewer long drives, fewer yards and fewer TDs. I would take Brady over Manning who is coming off another neck surgery but not Brees who's lowest yardage total in 5 years with the Saints is 4388 and that yardage will always be > 4k in this system while Belicheck and Brady have always been willing to run the football a lot more. Skipping the injury year in Brady's past 4 seasons the Pats have had between 450-500 rushing attempts each season while the Saints have been under 400 attempts 3 times in the past 5 years. This makes Brees a much safer pick and he has the skills to be the #1 fantasy QB in any year.
 
2007 Best FF QB

2008 Injured game 1

2009 Put up Brees numbers (4398 yards, 28/13) while still visibly hobbled from 2008 injury

2010 Best FF QB

Pretty hard to keep him out of the top tier.

 
2007 Best FF QB2008 Injured game 12009 Put up Brees numbers (4398 yards, 28/13) while still visibly hobbled from 2008 injury2010 Best FF QBPretty hard to keep him out of the top tier.
Taking out his injury year Brady has come in under 4,000 yards passing three times in his past 6 seasons with fewer than 30 TDs in 4 of those seasons.Manning has broken 4,000 yards 11 out of 13 seasons and has been under 30 TDs only twice in his past six seasons.Brees has broken 4,300 yards passing in 5 straight seasons (not just 4k) and has broken 30 TDs 3 times (the three most recent seasons)In terms of average production Brady is noticeably behind those two in my eyes. Under a standard 1/10 rush and 1/25 passing Rodger's past three years are significantly better than 4 Brady's past 6 years and pretty close to last years production.Vick's production last season beats Brady if you have a mediocre backup filling in those other 4 games. Brady's fantasy production has not been as consistent as the other top two starters (Manning and Brees) and a case can be made going forward for guys like Vick and Rodgers. I have him and Manning in the 2nd tier this year with Vick, Brees and Rodgers in the first tier.
 
2007 Best FF QB2008 Injured game 12009 Put up Brees numbers (4398 yards, 28/13) while still visibly hobbled from 2008 injury2010 Best FF QBPretty hard to keep him out of the top tier.
Taking out his injury year Brady has come in under 4,000 yards passing three times in his past 6 seasons with fewer than 30 TDs in 4 of those seasons.Manning has broken 4,000 yards 11 out of 13 seasons and has been under 30 TDs only twice in his past six seasons.Brees has broken 4,300 yards passing in 5 straight seasons (not just 4k) and has broken 30 TDs 3 times (the three most recent seasons)In terms of average production Brady is noticeably behind those two in my eyes. Under a standard 1/10 rush and 1/25 passing Rodger's past three years are significantly better than 4 Brady's past 6 years and pretty close to last years production.Vick's production last season beats Brady if you have a mediocre backup filling in those other 4 games. Brady's fantasy production has not been as consistent as the other top two starters (Manning and Brees) and a case can be made going forward for guys like Vick and Rodgers. I have him and Manning in the 2nd tier this year with Vick, Brees and Rodgers in the first tier.
:goodposting: Now I'm gonna go have to crunch those same numbers for the last 4 years to see how Brady stacks up over that timeframe. Looking at his career arc, it looks like whatever lightbulb clicked on in 2007 still has some life in it. No doubt that 2006 and before he wasn't close to 1st tier, in fact he used to be on my teams back then as a value pick (I don't take QB's round 1 or 2 in any of the formats I play in)
 
OK, I went and did it to see if my theory that Brady was top tier QB since 2007 held true. I threw out the injury shortened 2008 season and to make it fair for the other 3 (I didn't do Vick because statistics be damned, he's an elite QB in almost every format out there), I threw out their worst season. For Rodgers and Brees, that was 2007 and for Manning it was 2008.

Rodgers and Brees got 47 games in this window, Brady and Manning 48 each.

Based on 1/25 and 1/10 with 4 for Passing TD/6 per Rushing TD and -2 per INT:

Brady 970.36/48 games = 22.22 ppg

Rodgers 943.66/47 games = 20.08 ppg

Brees 881.98/47 games = 18.76 ppg

Manning 843.6/48 games = 17.58 ppg

Based on 1/25 and 1/10 with 6 for all TDs and -2 per INT:

Brady 1198.36/48 games = 24.96 ppg

Rodgers 1115.66/47 games = 23.73 ppg

Brees 1083.98/47 games = 23.06 ppg

Manning 1037.6/48 games = 21.62 ppg

Couple possible counterpoints:

Brady's 50 TD season skews it. Yes it does, but he's also the only person to have 35+ twice in the last 4 years and the only QB to reach 37 once (he did it twice).

Sample size is too small. Probably. Moot point to me anyway, I don't draft QB's early enough to roster anybody but if I did, it'd be between Rodgers and Brady for me.

You're stupid, go outside and play in the sun. Good call. Thanks.

Last edit (i R reel goot speelr): Manning and Brees too a big hit in INT stats (47 and 50, respectively) compared to Rodgers (31) and Brady (25). If Brees could cut down his INT numbers, he'd be right there with Brady and Rodgers in scoring.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
OK, I went and did it to see if my theory that Brady was top tier QB since 2007 held true. I threw out the injury shortened 2008 season and to make it fair for the other 3 (I didn't do Vick because statistics be damned, he's an elite QB in almost every format out there), I threw out their worst season. For Rodgers and Brees, that was 2007 and for Manning it was 2008.Rodgers and Brees got 47 games in this window, Brady and Manning 48 each.Based on 1/25 and 1/10 with 4 for Passing TD/6 per Rushing TD and -2 per INT:Brady 970.36/48 games = 22.22 ppgRodgers 943.66/47 games = 20.08 ppgBrees 881.98/47 games = 18.76 ppgManning 843.6/48 games = 17.58 ppgBased on 1/25 and 1/10 with 6 for all TDs and -2 per INT:Brady 1198.36/48 games = 24.96 ppgRodgers 1115.66/47 games = 23.73 ppgBrees 1083.98/47 games = 23.06 ppgManning 1037.6/48 games = 21.62 ppgCouple possible counterpoints:Brady's 50 TD season skews it. Yes it does, but he's also the only person to have 35+ twice in the last 4 years and the only QB to reach 37 once (he did it twice).Sample size is too small. Probably. Moot point to me anyway, I don't draft QB's early enough to roster anybody but if I did, it'd be between Rodgers and Brady for me.You're stupid, go outside and play in the sun. Good call. Thanks.Last edit (i R reel goot speelr): Manning and Brees too a big hit in INT stats (47 and 50, respectively) compared to Rodgers (31) and Brady (25). If Brees could cut down his INT numbers, he'd be right there with Brady and Rodgers in scoring.
I appreciate the effort, but I disagree on the method. You say
Sample size is too small.
But it doesn't have to be. There is good reason to take only 3 years of data for RBs as their careers are so much shorter and their drop offs so steep. With QBs though is their really an argument for not using all 5 seasons Brees has had in a Saints uniform? Or Manning's last 13 years? I can agree that Brady's stats in 2001-2003 would be pretty bad to incorporate but I don't see anything in the 2004-2006 seasons (be it TD%, Y/A, Int%) that leads me to believe these are out of line to use.
 
I can agree that Brady's stats in 2001-2003 would be pretty bad to incorporate but I don't see anything in the 2004-2006 seasons (be it TD%, Y/A, Int%) that leads me to believe these are out of line to use.
Just that his best season (2005) from 04-06 was worse than his worst (non injury) season from 07-10 and pretty much inline from 02/03 as well, less than 4000 yards passing, 24-28 TDs, 2:1 TD/INT ratio whereas since then he's top 3 in yards and pushing the best TD:INT ratio in the league.Your point is uber valid tho, I get it. Manning has been at that level consistently much longer (like forever), Brees has been there since he came to NOLA, Rodgers has been there every year he's been the guy. I'm just pointing out that Brady has only deserved to be in the Tier 1 conversation since 2007 but he might have been the best of the bunch in that time frame (obviously not in dynasty leagues where you got 3 seasons vs 4 for Manning & Brees).Back on topic, projections:4000 yards, 34 TD, 10 INT. Total pass attempts go down as NE runs that 5 headed monster RBBC they're gearing up for but production stays elite.
 
Let's get the conversation rolling here...do you see Brady matching, exceeding or falling short of last year's fantasy excellence? Would you draft him before Peyton Manning? Drew Brees?
I think he will fall short fantasy wise. I wouldn't draft Brady before Vick, Rivers, Rodgers, Manning, or Brees
I can see Rodgers and Rivers but not the others. NE has been and will be again a pass oriented offense. My concern is the receiving corps (fantasy wise). Woodhead will continue to be exploited and they have no true WR1. Brady will excel as always against defenses that can't both cover and pressure, meaning the Jets are his only concern. I'll take a chance on Brady with only 2 games where he may underperform.He's my #3 rated QB this year after the 2 mentioned above.4100, 35, 10
 
drater,

Have to respond to the Vick comment. Although I had him last year (took me to the final where I lost) he has too much risk this year. Just like his time with ATL he has run his course. The last 4 games of the season last year hints at his reversion back to the bad decisions on the field that we got used to in his first life.

Brady shows his knowledge of the game every week. Consistency from your QB is paramount in fantasy and Brady gives you that.

 
Let's get the conversation rolling here...do you see Brady matching, exceeding or falling short of last year's fantasy excellence? Would you draft him before Peyton Manning? Drew Brees?
I think he will fall short fantasy wise. I wouldn't draft Brady before Vick, Rivers, Rodgers, Manning, or Brees
That's good, because even in his "fantasy excellence" last year he finished behind all those guys. If he loses another 1 or 2 points per game, he's like 10th or 12th.
 
Folks, this isn't a thread for back and forth bickering. State your case, and move on. If you have additional evidence to support a counterpoint of someone else's view, great. But we're very clear that this is to be an analytical thread.

:thumbup:

 
Tom Brady is coming off an MVP season. The Patriots should have an improved WR corps this year, with Branch getting a full(ish) year in the offense, Welker being a year removed from injury, and links to a number of veteran WRs including Ocho, who could very easily pull a Corey Dillon if he moved from Cinci to New England. They have Woodhead, an apparently healthy Faulk, and added a good pass catching RB in the draft. They have two young stud TEs. They pass the ball well inside the red zone. Brady just set the interception record. The X factor is really just the offensive line. And it's non-trivial.
Since this post, the offensive line issues appear resolved, with the Pats likely to keep both Light and Mankins. Kaczur, who missed last year with injury, is gone. They added Solder, a first round pick, to the line and will be able to work him in, instead of forcinig him to start from day one. And as had been rumored, they did add Ocho. On paper, this is the most talented Patriots offense since 2007, and it may even be better. There is no Randy Moss, but Brady's at his best when he can use his quick read ability to find multiple open targets, and Ocho and Branch feel like a better fit for Brady's skillset than Moss did. At a minimum, they are better on paper than when Brady won an MVP last season. Welker came back early last year, and his numbers were a little bit down. Branch joined the team halfway through the season, now he gets to practice with the team. Ocho is a huge upgrade. The tight ends are a year more experienced. The line is basically the same, except they added a first rounder. They kept their running back tandem from last year and added two early picks. In a year where every team is going to be making adjustments on a short timetable and defenses won't get a full offseason to work out their kinks, the Patriots return Brady's MVP offense entirely intact, but with additions at RB, WR, and OL. Yes, they play in a division with Revis and the almighty Jets defense, but the Patriots added a top WR while the Jets defense failed to add Asomugha, and Brady had 893 yards, 8 TDs, and 3 INTs in three games against the Jets last year. And while half their schedule is against the Jets, Philly, Pittsburgh, the Giants, Dolphins, and Colts look challenging, their eight games against Washington, Buffalo, week two Chargers (which are never the same team as the week 12 Chargers), Raiders, Cowboys, Chiefs and Broncos look pretty soft. This could be a record setting season for Brady. But for now, I'm going with 4500 yards passing, 41 TDs, 9 INTs.
 

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