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Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens

Player Page Link: Ray Rice Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
Seems like a typical Madden Cover year to me. McGahee leaves, Harbaugh unleashes Rice for his best statistical season ever (with a possible deep Raven playoff run motivated by Lewis and Reed maybe playing their last season in Baltimore together).

Back to back 300 carry seasons and Rice making the 2013 Madden cover equals a nagging hamstring injury in 2012-13 that I'll have to deal with.

As for the monster year that will lead to the evil Madden Cover:

325 Carries, 1500 Yards, 12 TDs

80 Receptions, 800 Yards, 4 TDs

 
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It is hard to get excited about Rice after seeing his ypc drop from 5.3 to 4.0. I'm not sure what changed to lead to that drastic drop off, but I'd love to know. The team did seem intent on getting him the ball as his carries jumped about 20%. Until we know what caused the drop in ypc, I can only project a slight improvement for 2011 as 4.0 seems very low. The anticipated high workload helps him to maintain his mid-first round draft status. Should he get goal line carries, he could contend for #1 overall since Baltimore is just one year removed from 21 running back rushing TDs in a season.

300 carries, 1290 yds, 7 TD, 60 rec, 540 yds, 2 TD

 
I feel that Ray Rice played nicked up last year, his line was nicked up and now that McGahee is gone, his career season is here. Cam Cameron pads PPR Fantasy backs stats.

315 1400 12 TD's 70 Receptions 600 2 TD's

I love me some Ray Rice.

 
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Ray Rice was disappointing last year due to the fact he didn't score very many rushing Td's, only 5. For a top 3 pick by many, that's just not going to get it done without earning the label bust. However, he did rush for well over 1,000 yards and had more than 50 receptions, making him a solid fantasy player even in a year that he didn't produce what we thought he would.

I think Rice bounces back somewhat in the rushing TD department. The Ravens need Ray Rice to be a dominant force because in my opinion, quarterback Joe Flacco isn't the next Joe Montana and needs a strong rushing game to help get the Ravens into the Super Bowl.

1320 yards rushing, 8 Td's, 60 receptions for 2 Td's.

 
Ray Rice is a fairly safe pick in round 1 in PPR leagues. You know you're going to get 60+ receptions and likely 280+ carries. If he scored more TDs, he would be right there with the CJs, ADPs and Fosters of the world. I never understood why Rice hasn't scored more TDs. With McGahee gone, I would expect an uptick in the TD department. A solid choice for #4 overall and if you can get him at pick 6 or 7, smile!

285 car, 1225 yards rushing, 9 TD

65 rec, 525 yards receiving, 2 TD

 
I owned Rice last year and had a chance to watch him play a couple of times. He is a great runner with a low center of gravity but he sure looked like he lost a step compared to the previous year. I couldn't help but think he appeared to be a step slower....maybe that was due to him bulking up a little? Just a small probably meaningless observation.

I agree he appears to be a pretty safe pick in PPR leagues.

 
My main leaguer is non PPR and emphasizes scoring (1 pt per 20 yrds rushing and receiving). I bought RR last year betting on breakout and an expected decline in McGahee. Whoops. Personally, I can’t blame is all on the now departed vulture. Would I bet on Rice? Sure, but not where he’s going to go. No RR cooking for me this year.

 
OC to ride Ray Rice until he is tired

"Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator Cam Cameron said Tuesday, Aug. 23 that the plan for now is to allow RB Ray Rice to keep running until he gets tired. When that happens, he's supposed to let Cameron know and RB Ricky Williams will come in. 'We will leave a lot of it up to (Ray) and we will be smart too because we want Ray full speed at the end of games,' Cameron said. Analysis: Wow, isn't this what Rice-owners have been waiting years to hear? By the way, did you see Ravens FB Vonta Leach's block last week on Chiefs LB Pierre Walters that sprung Rice for a 26-yard touchdown?... It was nice."

 
Wow, almost no chatter on Rice, i was looking at the j Charles thread and theres 4 pages... I see them as neck and neck, and without McGahee this year, I see Rice getting all of those vultured tds, Charles is making me nervous... but Rice's ypc is making me a bit nervous as well...

 
Wow, almost no chatter on Rice, i was looking at the j Charles thread and theres 4 pages... I see them as neck and neck, and without McGahee this year, I see Rice getting all of those vultured tds, Charles is making me nervous... but Rice's ypc is making me a bit nervous as well...
'Cause Rice already had this thread recently. Most are already done tooting the pro or anti horn.
 
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Wow, almost no chatter on Rice, i was looking at the j Charles thread and theres 4 pages... I see them as neck and neck, and without McGahee this year, I see Rice getting all of those vultured tds, Charles is making me nervous... but Rice's ypc is making me a bit nervous as well...
Few Rice threads already, also - If you say anything even mildly close to "Charles wont finish top 5" it gaurantees 10 angry posts, fills up quick. 350 Carries 1540 Rushing 10 TD75 Receptions 750 Receiving 4 TD
 
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Wow, almost no chatter on Rice, i was looking at the j Charles thread and theres 4 pages... I see them as neck and neck, and without McGahee this year, I see Rice getting all of those vultured tds, Charles is making me nervous... but Rice's ypc is making me a bit nervous as well...
Few Rice threads already, also - If you say anything even mildly close to "Charles wont finish top 5" it gaurantees 10 angry posts, fills up quick. 350 Carries 1540 Rushing 10 TD75 Receptions 750 Receiving 4 TD
Career- 174 receptions, 2 TDs.
 
Wow, almost no chatter on Rice, i was looking at the j Charles thread and theres 4 pages... I see them as neck and neck, and without McGahee this year, I see Rice getting all of those vultured tds, Charles is making me nervous... but Rice's ypc is making me a bit nervous as well...
Few Rice threads already, also - If you say anything even mildly close to "Charles wont finish top 5" it gaurantees 10 angry posts, fills up quick. 350 Carries 1540 Rushing 10 TD75 Receptions 750 Receiving 4 TD
Career- 174 receptions, 2 TDs.
Im aware.In the years that Mcgahee was backing up Rice he had vultured at least 3 receiving touchdowns, may have been more. Heap is gone, Dickson is bad.Rice has big play potential just like all of the other elite RBs, Flacco isnt afraid to checkdown to Rice ever, with their soft schedule im expecting him to blow up a few secondaries.
 
I traded CJ2K for Rice just before our draft this past weekend (they were our keepers). There were some extenuating circumstances I won't bore you with and CJ's holdout status was certainly spooking me a bit, but even without those factors I felt great about the trade. I expect Rice to have his best season yet with the addition of Leach and the subtraction of McGahee. Flacco has one more year in the offense under his belt and the threat of the long ball with Lee Evans should be able to take a defender out of the box.

The offenese should be better all the way around. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Rice ends up the #1 RB in fantasy this season - PPR or standard.

 
I traded CJ2K for Rice just before our draft this past weekend (they were our keepers). There were some extenuating circumstances I won't bore you with and CJ's holdout status was certainly spooking me a bit, but even without those factors I felt great about the trade. I expect Rice to have his best season yet with the addition of Leach and the subtraction of McGahee. Flacco has one more year in the offense under his belt and the threat of the long ball with Lee Evans should be able to take a defender out of the box. The offenese should be better all the way around. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Rice ends up the #1 RB in fantasy this season - PPR or standard.
My surprise pick in PPR is the shady one.
 
The only drawback to Rice is two of the first four weeks, he faces the Steelers and Jets, and then his bye is week 5, so you can't depend on him too much early on, but once the middle of October hits, he should really take off from a consistency standpoint.

 
The only drawback to Rice is two of the first four weeks, he faces the Steelers and Jets, and then his bye is week 5, so you can't depend on him too much early on, but once the middle of October hits, he should really take off from a consistency standpoint.
Those 2 teams are tuff but it doesn't mean he wont have a good game. you never know.
 
I have been in a local FBG league for about six years (Keep 3). During that time, I owned some good RBs (Edge, S-Jax, ADP (years 2-4), etc.). This offseason, I got more trade offers for Rice than all the other guys combined. Could just be a coincidence, but I think a lot of people think he is going to be the man to have owned when the dust settles (even had an offer for Chris Johnson).

 
Just wondering if the addition of McKinnie at the LT position and the resulting move of Oher back to RT (see RR's 2009 season when Oher last played RT) has been noticed by people. If McKinnie is ready to go, the Oline is substantially upgraded. Leach is a huge upgrade as well. LT McKinnie (former pro-bowler), LG Grubbs (alt pro-bowler), C bad-knees Birk (former pro-bowler), RG Yanda (beast at guard, eh at RT where he played last year), RT Oher...that is a menacing run blocking line. Ray Rice will be the top fantasy back in all formats in 2011 IF those guys start and stay healthy. Rice has looked good this preseason even with the miss-mash Oline that he's been running behind, Oher (playing LT) and Grubbs are the only projected starters that have played. The speculation is that all, with the exception of Birk, will start against ATL in the final pre-season game, it'll be interesting to see how the line performs.

 
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Just wondering if the addition of McKinnie at the LT position and the resulting move of Oher back to RT (see RR's 2009 season when Oher last played RT) has been noticed by people. If McKinnie is ready to go, the Oline is substantially upgraded. Leach is a huge upgrade as well. LT McKinnie (former pro-bowler), LG Grubbs (alt pro-bowler), C bad-knees Birk (former pro-bowler), RG Yanda (beast at guard, eh at RT where he played last year), RT Oher...that is a menacing run blocking line. Ray Rice will be the top fantasy back in all formats in 2011 IF those guys start and stay healthy. Rice has looked good this preseason even with the miss-mash Oline that he's been running behind, Oher (playing LT) and Grubbs are the only projected starters that have played. The speculation is that all, with the exception of Birk, will start against ATL in the final pre-season game, it'll be interesting to see how the line performs.
People have noticed McKinnie is the starting LT, but they are reading it as a negative. Teams usually don't just let go of their staring LT 2 weeks before the season starts unless there are some serious concerns.
 
Just wondering if the addition of McKinnie at the LT position and the resulting move of Oher back to RT (see RR's 2009 season when Oher last played RT) has been noticed by people. If McKinnie is ready to go, the Oline is substantially upgraded. Leach is a huge upgrade as well. LT McKinnie (former pro-bowler), LG Grubbs (alt pro-bowler), C bad-knees Birk (former pro-bowler), RG Yanda (beast at guard, eh at RT where he played last year), RT Oher...that is a menacing run blocking line. Ray Rice will be the top fantasy back in all formats in 2011 IF those guys start and stay healthy. Rice has looked good this preseason even with the miss-mash Oline that he's been running behind, Oher (playing LT) and Grubbs are the only projected starters that have played. The speculation is that all, with the exception of Birk, will start against ATL in the final pre-season game, it'll be interesting to see how the line performs.
People have noticed McKinnie is the starting LT, but they are reading it as a negative. Teams usually don't just let go of their staring LT 2 weeks before the season starts unless there are some serious concerns.
McKinnie type decisions tend to be more $$$ related than ability related...
 
Just wondering if the addition of McKinnie at the LT position and the resulting move of Oher back to RT (see RR's 2009 season when Oher last played RT) has been noticed by people. If McKinnie is ready to go, the Oline is substantially upgraded. Leach is a huge upgrade as well. LT McKinnie (former pro-bowler), LG Grubbs (alt pro-bowler), C bad-knees Birk (former pro-bowler), RG Yanda (beast at guard, eh at RT where he played last year), RT Oher...that is a menacing run blocking line. Ray Rice will be the top fantasy back in all formats in 2011 IF those guys start and stay healthy. Rice has looked good this preseason even with the miss-mash Oline that he's been running behind, Oher (playing LT) and Grubbs are the only projected starters that have played. The speculation is that all, with the exception of Birk, will start against ATL in the final pre-season game, it'll be interesting to see how the line performs.
People have noticed McKinnie is the starting LT, but they are reading it as a negative. Teams usually don't just let go of their staring LT 2 weeks before the season starts unless there are some serious concerns.
McKinnie type decisions tend to be more $$ related than ability related...
He showed up to camp 40 pounds over his playing weight.
 
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Just wondering if the addition of McKinnie at the LT position and the resulting move of Oher back to RT (see RR's 2009 season when Oher last played RT) has been noticed by people. If McKinnie is ready to go, the Oline is substantially upgraded. Leach is a huge upgrade as well. LT McKinnie (former pro-bowler), LG Grubbs (alt pro-bowler), C bad-knees Birk (former pro-bowler), RG Yanda (beast at guard, eh at RT where he played last year), RT Oher...that is a menacing run blocking line. Ray Rice will be the top fantasy back in all formats in 2011 IF those guys start and stay healthy. Rice has looked good this preseason even with the miss-mash Oline that he's been running behind, Oher (playing LT) and Grubbs are the only projected starters that have played. The speculation is that all, with the exception of Birk, will start against ATL in the final pre-season game, it'll be interesting to see how the line performs.
People have noticed McKinnie is the starting LT, but they are reading it as a negative. Teams usually don't just let go of their staring LT 2 weeks before the season starts unless there are some serious concerns.
McKinnie type decisions tend to be more $$ related than ability related...
He showed up to camp 40 pounds over his playing weight.
Right- but the reason they cut him right off the bat rather than trying to get him in shape at camp likely had to do with when portions of his contract became guaranteed.
 
'baconisgood said:
'Ilov80s said:
Just wondering if the addition of McKinnie at the LT position and the resulting move of Oher back to RT (see RR's 2009 season when Oher last played RT) has been noticed by people. If McKinnie is ready to go, the Oline is substantially upgraded. Leach is a huge upgrade as well. LT McKinnie (former pro-bowler), LG Grubbs (alt pro-bowler), C bad-knees Birk (former pro-bowler), RG Yanda (beast at guard, eh at RT where he played last year), RT Oher...that is a menacing run blocking line. Ray Rice will be the top fantasy back in all formats in 2011 IF those guys start and stay healthy. Rice has looked good this preseason even with the miss-mash Oline that he's been running behind, Oher (playing LT) and Grubbs are the only projected starters that have played. The speculation is that all, with the exception of Birk, will start against ATL in the final pre-season game, it'll be interesting to see how the line performs.
People have noticed McKinnie is the starting LT, but they are reading it as a negative. Teams usually don't just let go of their staring LT 2 weeks before the season starts unless there are some serious concerns.
McKinnie type decisions tend to be more $$ related than ability related...
He showed up to camp 40 pounds over his playing weight.
Right- but the reason they cut him right off the bat rather than trying to get him in shape at camp likely had to do with when portions of his contract became guaranteed.
I'll be the first to say I've only seen video clips of McKinnie in camp but, at whatever weight he's at now, he doesn't look out of shape. The Ravens Oline was in serious jeopardy prior to his arrival. Starting Oher at Lt where he's struggled, starting a raw rookie at RT in Reid or pulling Yanda out of his natural position to play RT, leaving a hole at RG...not to mention Birk's injury status and his lackluster play last year was scary. The addition of McKinnie greatly improves this line, it puts potential pro-bowlers at their natural position at every position. McKinnie was a cap casualty and certainly didn't help things with his conditioning/laissez-faire attitude in Minnesota. Maybe being cut is a wake up call, maybe playing for a team with real play-off hopes is motivation, maybe a "don't be a fat *******" clause in his contract is inspiration...either way his addition doesn't hurt Rice in any way, it can greatly help Rice's 2011 #s, however.
 
McKinnie had just plain wore out his welcome in Minny. The pro-bowl fiasco, he reportedly didn't return calls from coaches/teammates during off-season and let's not forget his role in the "Love Boat". The cap relief & availability of Johnson to slide right in at LT pushed the deal over the top.

 

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