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A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Player Page Link: A.J. Green Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
I'm going to assume that palmer is gone and that dalton is starting the whole year. I think dalton will start out slow but finish the season decently. Green will be solid and, along with greshem, will become a security blanket for dalton. I think they will really click by the end of the year resulting in:

60/750/5, mostly at the end of the season. A very solid rookie season, hopefully leading to a good career

 
For as high as the FF world is on Green, he probably couldn't have come into much worse of a situation. The Bengals aren't the most stable organization, Palmer may retire, and I am not a huge believer in Dalton. I think it might take Green being traded or the Bengals bringing in a decent QB for Green to realize his potential, because I just don't see it happening as things stand over the next 2-4 years with the building blocks of this team.

45, 640, 4

 
I've read that the concern with A.J. Green is if he will go to a team that understands how to bring him along. Apparently he's a slow learner and requires time to grow into the different receiving positions. Word was if you try to get him to learn all the positions at once (X,Y,Z) and keep moving him around, you're setting him up for failure. This is obviously more significant considering the labor situation.

Now let's be clear that we shouldn't overreact to this. Obviously he is a superior talent and there are times that your talents just take over, so he'll get his stats here and there. But I do have a few questions to Bengals fans who know your coaching staff well and also a question to college fans who've watched a lot of college ball over the years.

1). Thoughts on how Jay Gruden and James Urban will handle Green? I'm not at all familiar with those coaches but I'm not a big fan of the Bengals organization so I'm very skeptical.

2). I've heard more than a handful of people throw around the Charles Rogers comparisons. I'd like to hear both sides of this. Why these comparisons might be valid (even if unlikely), and also why the Rogers comparisons are innacurate.

 
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I'd like to add that there's a very few organizations in the NFL that would have me second guesss a great talent like A.J. Green. The Bengals are definitely one of them. I thought those Bungle days were long gone but after seeing how the team is slowly unraveling, I can't help but think of Hard Knocks and how much of a joke Mike Brown seemed to me. The problems for A.J. Green clearly start at the front office and trickle down. A team that refuses to deal a QB and get something in return just boggles my mind. They'd rather sit there and hold onto Palmer just to prove a point or spite him rather than get something in return to improve a team that's long been at the bottom of the barrel.

Just a quick wiki of Mike Brown gives insight to how he refuses to hire a general manager probably because he pockets a fat general manager bonus check every year. He also is notorious for paying members of his family millions of dollars (employees of the organization obviously) instead of using that money for free agents, a GM or a decent scouting department. Let's not forget the whole accepting of "low character" type of players in Cincinnati.

Okay okay, this is an A.J. Green thread not a Bengals thread. But the point is, all this adds up as red flags for A.J. Green. It's not hard to imagine the Bengals at the bottom of that divison for the next few years. Even worse, PIT, CLE and BAL have great owners/managers that should keep them in contention every single year for the next 10 years. Losing year after year crushes morale and leads to complacency. Surround a "loser team" with a bunch of questionable character guys and problems will start popping up for your 1.01-1.03 dynasty pick.

Okay so bottom line, I'm still considering trading up to grab A.J. Green. But I wanted to leave as negative a post as possible to see what the counter points would be because I'd love to hear them. Those Charles Rogers comparisons didn't really make me compare the two players. It actually got me thinking of the state of the Detroit Lions Franchise in the Matt Millen Era and how similar Cincy is to that.

Is there anything out there that I'm not aware of that gives Bengals fans hope or reason to believe things might change in Cincy (or at least go postively for A.J. Green?)

 
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I just don't get the Charles Rodgers comparison at all...He has 0 red flags about his character and was suspended because he sold a freakin jersey. The Bengles might be run by the zoo but they aren't that horrible of a team as a whole, looking forward i see Green being able to develop into one of the leagues best WR's. Calvin Johnson,Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson all were high draft picks and each one went to a bad situation (All top picks normally go to bad teams), but of all the teams i think Green is in the best situation of the 4. Sure there are questions about the QB situation but none were worse then what Calvin went through to start his career and yet if your a stud you still get the job done. I expect Cinci to go after a vet stop-gap QB in FA and then mold Dalton into the future of the franchise and to go along with a solid O-Line and a very good defense, and a decent running game and solid pass catchers surrounding Green (Shipley,Simpson,Gresham) that the team will be in line for a big improvement in 2012.....

2011: 70 catches 950 yards 6TD's

2012: 95 catches 1200 yards 11TD's

 
I just don't get the Charles Rodgers comparison at all...He has 0 red flags about his character and was suspended because he sold a freakin jersey. The Bengles might be run by the zoo but they aren't that horrible of a team as a whole, looking forward i see Green being able to develop into one of the leagues best WR's. Calvin Johnson,Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson all were high draft picks and each one went to a bad situation (All top picks normally go to bad teams), but of all the teams i think Green is in the best situation of the 4. Sure there are questions about the QB situation but none were worse then what Calvin went through to start his career and yet if your a stud you still get the job done. I expect Cinci to go after a vet stop-gap QB in FA and then mold Dalton into the future of the franchise and to go along with a solid O-Line and a very good defense, and a decent running game and solid pass catchers surrounding Green (Shipley,Simpson,Gresham) that the team will be in line for a big improvement in 2012.....2011: 70 catches 950 yards 6TD's2012: 95 catches 1200 yards 11TD's
Ok, we get it. You've got him in two dynasty leagues. Don't pollute the projections with your blatant bias. At the very least put some time into your biased projections. You are expecting him to drop his ypr from 13.6 to 12.6 in his second year.Also, Calvin started his career on a team that threw for over 4000 yards, so is that really the worst situation to get drafted into?
 
55/800/4

Anyone predicting 1000 yards in Year 1 is banking on a black swan type of event to occur with Green. He's one of the best college receivers I've seen. He's so fluid and effortless. But, top-pick rookie receivers rarely cross the 1000 yard barrier, and I wouldn't predict anything different, particularly with a rookie QB at the helm.

On the other hand, I fully expect Dalton to excel in this system eventually, and I see Green taking full advantage of a very active passing game by Year 2...and become an elite WR by the end of his 3rd year. As someone above posted, it shouldn't really be of much concern if the Bengals suck as a team. There's a long history of successful WRs on bad teams. I think talent outweighs things here, and honestly, being part of a bad team means lots of passing opportunities. I see him as a perennial 90/1200/7 guy starting Year 3.

Temper expectations this year, though.

 
I just don't get the Charles Rodgers comparison at all...He has 0 red flags about his character and was suspended because he sold a freakin jersey. The Bengles might be run by the zoo but they aren't that horrible of a team as a whole, looking forward i see Green being able to develop into one of the leagues best WR's. Calvin Johnson,Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson all were high draft picks and each one went to a bad situation (All top picks normally go to bad teams), but of all the teams i think Green is in the best situation of the 4. Sure there are questions about the QB situation but none were worse then what Calvin went through to start his career and yet if your a stud you still get the job done. I expect Cinci to go after a vet stop-gap QB in FA and then mold Dalton into the future of the franchise and to go along with a solid O-Line and a very good defense, and a decent running game and solid pass catchers surrounding Green (Shipley,Simpson,Gresham) that the team will be in line for a big improvement in 2012.....2011: 70 catches 950 yards 6TD's2012: 95 catches 1200 yards 11TD's
Ok, we get it. You've got him in two dynasty leagues. Don't pollute the projections with your blatant bias. At the very least put some time into your biased projections. You are expecting him to drop his ypr from 13.6 to 12.6 in his second year.Also, Calvin started his career on a team that threw for over 4000 yards, so is that really the worst situation to get drafted into?
Where in this brief rant are your projections. He certainly put more time into his post/projections than you did. Not to mention the fact that there is nothing historically unrealistic about his projections. Perhaps bullish, but not in any way polluting the SP.
 
No QB in Cinci and a rookie WR. We will see flashes of brilliance but it takes a lot more than that to reach 1000 and 10 TD's. A.J. Green develops into a solid fantasy option in years to come but he's a high risk redraft type player this year, one I'm willing to let other owners make.

59 receptions 810 yards and 4 Td's

 
I just don't get the Charles Rodgers comparison at all...He has 0 red flags about his character and was suspended because he sold a freakin jersey. The Bengles might be run by the zoo but they aren't that horrible of a team as a whole, looking forward i see Green being able to develop into one of the leagues best WR's. Calvin Johnson,Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson all were high draft picks and each one went to a bad situation (All top picks normally go to bad teams), but of all the teams i think Green is in the best situation of the 4. Sure there are questions about the QB situation but none were worse then what Calvin went through to start his career and yet if your a stud you still get the job done. I expect Cinci to go after a vet stop-gap QB in FA and then mold Dalton into the future of the franchise and to go along with a solid O-Line and a very good defense, and a decent running game and solid pass catchers surrounding Green (Shipley,Simpson,Gresham) that the team will be in line for a big improvement in 2012.....2011: 70 catches 950 yards 6TD's2012: 95 catches 1200 yards 11TD's
Ok, we get it. You've got him in two dynasty leagues. Don't pollute the projections with your blatant bias. At the very least put some time into your biased projections. You are expecting him to drop his ypr from 13.6 to 12.6 in his second year.Also, Calvin started his career on a team that threw for over 4000 yards, so is that really the worst situation to get drafted into?
If i didn't think he was going to be good then i wouldn't have drafted him obviously and many scouts have projected him to be in the mold of Fitz/Johnson so how i am just being bias?
 
I just don't get the Charles Rodgers comparison at all...He has 0 red flags about his character and was suspended because he sold a freakin jersey. The Bengles might be run by the zoo but they aren't that horrible of a team as a whole, looking forward i see Green being able to develop into one of the leagues best WR's. Calvin Johnson,Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson all were high draft picks and each one went to a bad situation (All top picks normally go to bad teams), but of all the teams i think Green is in the best situation of the 4. Sure there are questions about the QB situation but none were worse then what Calvin went through to start his career and yet if your a stud you still get the job done. I expect Cinci to go after a vet stop-gap QB in FA and then mold Dalton into the future of the franchise and to go along with a solid O-Line and a very good defense, and a decent running game and solid pass catchers surrounding Green (Shipley,Simpson,Gresham) that the team will be in line for a big improvement in 2012.....2011: 70 catches 950 yards 6TD's2012: 95 catches 1200 yards 11TD's
Ok, we get it. You've got him in two dynasty leagues. Don't pollute the projections with your blatant bias. At the very least put some time into your biased projections. You are expecting him to drop his ypr from 13.6 to 12.6 in his second year.Also, Calvin started his career on a team that threw for over 4000 yards, so is that really the worst situation to get drafted into?
Where in this brief rant are your projections. He certainly put more time into his post/projections than you did. Not to mention the fact that there is nothing historically unrealistic about his projections. Perhaps bullish, but not in any way polluting the SP.
He just threw down some numbers he liked. That doesn't count as putting time into it. As for my projections, I'll wait until I know who is the starting QB and if 85 will be there. I could just pull some out of my rear, but out of respect for others who are responsible with their numbers I will not do so. It goes against the ninja code.
 
I just don't get the Charles Rodgers comparison at all...He has 0 red flags about his character and was suspended because he sold a freakin jersey. The Bengles might be run by the zoo but they aren't that horrible of a team as a whole, looking forward i see Green being able to develop into one of the leagues best WR's. Calvin Johnson,Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson all were high draft picks and each one went to a bad situation (All top picks normally go to bad teams), but of all the teams i think Green is in the best situation of the 4. Sure there are questions about the QB situation but none were worse then what Calvin went through to start his career and yet if your a stud you still get the job done. I expect Cinci to go after a vet stop-gap QB in FA and then mold Dalton into the future of the franchise and to go along with a solid O-Line and a very good defense, and a decent running game and solid pass catchers surrounding Green (Shipley,Simpson,Gresham) that the team will be in line for a big improvement in 2012.....2011: 70 catches 950 yards 6TD's2012: 95 catches 1200 yards 11TD's
Ok, we get it. You've got him in two dynasty leagues. Don't pollute the projections with your blatant bias. At the very least put some time into your biased projections. You are expecting him to drop his ypr from 13.6 to 12.6 in his second year.Also, Calvin started his career on a team that threw for over 4000 yards, so is that really the worst situation to get drafted into?
Where in this brief rant are your projections. He certainly put more time into his post/projections than you did. Not to mention the fact that there is nothing historically unrealistic about his projections. Perhaps bullish, but not in any way polluting the SP.
He just threw down some numbers he liked. That doesn't count as putting time into it. As for my projections, I'll wait until I know who is the starting QB and if 85 will be there. I could just pull some out of my rear, but out of respect for others who are responsible with their numbers I will not do so. It goes against the ninja code.
Wow. :lmao:I suspect we'll have to endure you in every projection thread acting like chief of all that is *responsible* in numbers and stuff.Get over yourself. Stuff like this poisons the SP far more than biased projections, which are subject to everyone's biases, including yours.
 
Laughing.......i was going to post some projections but now im scared to. I'll wait til december to post mine.

FF ninja aka FF Nazi

 
Laughing.......i was going to post some projections but now im scared to. I'll wait til december to post mine.FF ninja aka FF Nazi
:lmao: Seriously, no n00b with 17 total posts on this board should carry that much weight. He needs to get on Joe and David if he doesn't think projections should be made this early. Good luck to him with that.Go ahead and make your projections with confidence! I'm curious.
 
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I just don't get the Charles Rodgers comparison at all...He has 0 red flags about his character and was suspended because he sold a freakin jersey. The Bengles might be run by the zoo but they aren't that horrible of a team as a whole, looking forward i see Green being able to develop into one of the leagues best WR's. Calvin Johnson,Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson all were high draft picks and each one went to a bad situation (All top picks normally go to bad teams), but of all the teams i think Green is in the best situation of the 4. Sure there are questions about the QB situation but none were worse then what Calvin went through to start his career and yet if your a stud you still get the job done. I expect Cinci to go after a vet stop-gap QB in FA and then mold Dalton into the future of the franchise and to go along with a solid O-Line and a very good defense, and a decent running game and solid pass catchers surrounding Green (Shipley,Simpson,Gresham) that the team will be in line for a big improvement in 2012.....

2011: 70 catches 950 yards 6TD's

2012: 95 catches 1200 yards 11TD's
Ok, we get it. You've got him in two dynasty leagues. Don't pollute the projections with your blatant bias. At the very least put some time into your biased projections. You are expecting him to drop his ypr from 13.6 to 12.6 in his second year.Also, Calvin started his career on a team that threw for over 4000 yards, so is that really the worst situation to get drafted into?
Projections might be optimistic but why make a big deal about a drop in YPR, especially with a significant increase in catches? Those type of fluctuations are typical... not evidence that the guy put no thought into it! Really should take it down about 5 notches.

 
laughing.....thanks for giving me the courage and positive reinforcement.

I live here in cincy, and that may not matter, but I honestly doubt mike brown ponies up for a stopgap at qb. Look at thepast backups......jt osullivan, jordan palmer, lefevour.

All very cheap roster fillers.

They have new offensive coaches

A brand new offense

NO MINI CAMPS TO LEARN

A rookie at qb who has a weak arm

A subpar, aging offensive line

No rb on the roster, and benson is not exacty as world beater

They have 4 games against tough divisional opponents, pitts and baltimore who will be relentless harrassing dalton

Now, I love aj greens talent. He is silky smooth as an athlete, but is he going to go across the middle fearlessly?

Will he go after errant passes from dalton? Nfl is such a different, fiercer game.

In the one game I scouted AJ Green, here is what I saw:

2011 bowl game against wyoming

Polished route runner

Smooth in cuts

Good job of coming back to qb, and squaring up, boxing away defender

5 yard split is amazing

Fearless across the middle

Natural hands catcher, plucks and tucks

Change of direction is eye opening

Makes yardage when nothing is there and can slip out of tackles

Heady player.....great sideline awareness and body control

Some negatives

Lets defend er get hands inside and establish initial contact when run blocking

Negative body language......pouted at end of game when team was losing and poor passes came his way.

Ran a lazy route on a bad throw and dropped the ball late in the game. The irony here is he showe d passion on a 4th and 8 on a 15 yard square in and got the conversion.

His play is infectious. Teammates will rally around him and protect him. He has the ability to take over games.

I see a decent rookie year for him, and he blossoms in 2012

68 catches

820 yards

5 tds

Now, is it ok to hope they go winless and take Luck in the 2012 draft???

 
Green's stupid good. I don't know if I'd call him a Calvin/Fitz type talent, but he's definitely not much more than a step or two down in long-term potential. I think he'll get up to his real playing weight sometime this season--he's probably going to add 5-10 pounds if he can keep his speed--and obviously be adjusting to the game and a rookie QB. Still, he's going to be WR1 there by default, and I see 50-60 catches as very likely. A fun gamble in the middle rounds, and someone who dynasty players should still feel comfortable slotting into lineups in 3WR leagues.

57 rec, 805 yds, 6 TDs

 
Anything more then 900/7 would be a suprise to me. No problem drafting him in a keeper format, but 2011 will be rocky.

 
'DropKick said:
Projections might be optimistic but why make a big deal about a drop in YPR, especially with a significant increase in catches? Those type of fluctuations are typical... not evidence that the guy put no thought into it! Really should take it down about 5 notches.
I realize that these things can happen but a number of things set off my ninja-tuned BS radar - his sig was just an initial red flag. The inconsistent projections along with the ignorant comment about the Detroit passing game were indicative of a dynasty owner just throwing out some wishful thinking, void of real analysis and logic.If people policed this board for poor analysis rather than posts that might accidentally hurt some feelings then we might get somewhere with these discussions. As the feelings police, you really think 5 whole notches are necessary? It really wasn't rude. It was just a way of saying, please bring more thoughtful insight and less wishful thinking in the future.Not trying to offend anyone here. Just trying to encourage realistic and knowledgeable discussion.
 
I've yammered in here enough that I probably owe some real discussion.

Cincinnati is a team in transition. The ground game has been woeful, despite prolific use in 2009 (584 RB carries at only 3.8 ypc) that was allowed by the 6th best defense in the NFL. Last year saw a dip to 394 RB carries as the defense fell to 24th in the league, corresponding to an increase in passing attempts from 477 to 589. With the likely departure of Carson Palmer, the team may be left with a poor defense, a poor running game, and a poor passing game. But with TO gone and 85 likely to be gone, someone has to catch the many passes. With an ADP of WR33 Green does not present bad value, but certainly doesn't have the upside of a guy in a prolific offense and/or experience in that offense. The lockout has no doubt hurt his chances of making an early impact. It also has prevented the team from signing (and getting up to speed) a veteran QB who could get him the ball better than a rookie with questionable arm strength. In all likelihood, Shipley and Gresham will be the top targets if Dalton is the week 1 starter and Green could see WR1 coverage. I can't see myself drafting Green as my WR3 when the guy leaving a vacancy in Cincy, Ochocinco, is being drafted as WR43 and will likely be heading to a better situation than the unproven Green.

In summary, there are just too many questions surrounding Green to make him a smart play in 2011. Marvin Lewis surely wants to revitalize the defense and running game, decreasing passing attemps. But if that doesn't work then you are likely looking at a flurry of passes from a rookie QB with a scarce number of scoring opps. Not exactly the upside one hopes for when drafting a third WR. But if he is named the week 1 starting wideout then he should see enough targets to not totally bust from that draft position.

 
Rookie QB most likely starting unless they bring in a vet and I don't think they'll get anything more than a game manager while Dalton develops. Even if Dalton starts day 1 I see him having his struggles and that'll transfer over to the WR's. Yes, more than likely they'll be playing from behind a lot but having Dalton air it out isn't good for the young QB. Run the ball as best you can, take your lumps,grow and learn for next year. AJ is definitely talented and it'll take time for him to become a good WR1. If the QB doesn't progress and develop that'll slow Green down some. He'll have a few good games but he'll understand it's a learning process and work to get better.

2011- 58 receptions/ 725 yds./4 td's

 
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Wow. :lmao:I suspect we'll have to endure you in every projection thread acting like chief of all that is *responsible* in numbers and stuff.Get over yourself. Stuff like this poisons the SP far more than biased projections, which are subject to everyone's biases, including yours.
Geez, I missed some of these posts earlier. Bunch of sensitive souls in here. If you guys want to take up for garbage posts like that, fine. I really wasn't that harsh, but you guys have made it out to be much more mean spirited than it was.I wish more people called out garbage posts so that others would be inclined to give a least a bit of reasonable thought to their posts. But whatever. Message received. Quality does not matter here. I won't bring it up in another thread. But humor me and tell me, did you guys not read that and think two things? (1) he doesn't know what he's talking about and (2) he just posted here to hype a guy he just drafted twice. I mean, I suppose it is a natural inclination to talk a guy up that you just drafted hoping that others will agree, but I was hoping to find better stuff on this board. You know, like informed people posting insight and analysis. Oh well... Happy posting to sharks and guppies alike!ninja out
 
Wow. :lmao:I suspect we'll have to endure you in every projection thread acting like chief of all that is *responsible* in numbers and stuff.Get over yourself. Stuff like this poisons the SP far more than biased projections, which are subject to everyone's biases, including yours.
Geez, I missed some of these posts earlier. Bunch of sensitive souls in here. If you guys want to take up for garbage posts like that, fine. I really wasn't that harsh, but you guys have made it out to be much more mean spirited than it was.I wish more people called out garbage posts so that others would be inclined to give a least a bit of reasonable thought to their posts. But whatever. Message received. Quality does not matter here. I won't bring it up in another thread. But humor me and tell me, did you guys not read that and think two things? (1) he doesn't know what he's talking about and (2) he just posted here to hype a guy he just drafted twice. I mean, I suppose it is a natural inclination to talk a guy up that you just drafted hoping that others will agree, but I was hoping to find better stuff on this board. You know, like informed people posting insight and analysis. Oh well... Happy posting to sharks and guppies alike!ninja out
I'm in the leagues with him and hes been talking about this guy for two years now. I cant get him to shut up about how hes going to be an absolute stud (calvin Fitz Andre style). He did whatever he could in both leagues to get 1.1 and was not willing to trade it after he got them( months before the NFL draft). He went out and got that guy for a reason, not because he heard someone talking about him on ESPN.I actually think your the one here with some faulty logic. You made a judgement based off his signature without knowing anything else. Thats like saying Fitz is on the decline because his stats went down last year. Gotta know all the sides before you go out making judgments like "this guy knows nothing". Sorry bro, you will learn eventually :)
 
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I've yammered in here enough that I probably owe some real discussion.

<blah>
Prolific excessive over abuse of extravagantly verbose prose doesn't make your woeful analysis any more palatable.Nor does it make you appear smart.

Green: Elite talent, less than great situation. That didn't slow down Calvin, Andre early in his career, Fitz last year, Bowe with Cassell, etc to a point where I would feel that 70/900/8 is a safe floor in 2011. Agree with others who predict elite level production by 2012 and beyond. I haven't drafted him in any dynasty leagues.

 
I'm in the leagues with him and hes been talking about this guy for two years now. I cant get him to shut up about how hes going to be an absolute stud (calvin Fitz Andre style). He did whatever he could in both leagues to get 1.1 and was not willing to trade it after he got them( months before the NFL draft). He went out and got that guy for a reason, not because he heard someone talking about him on ESPN.I actually think your the one here with some faulty logic. You made a judgement based off his signature without knowing anything else. Thats like saying Fitz is on the decline because his stats went down last year. Gotta know all the sides before you go out making judgments like "this guy knows nothing". Sorry bro, you will learn eventually :)
It was the statement about Calvin Johnson's horrible situation that made me think he didn't know what he was talking. Detroit was a very prolific passing team when Calvin was drafted. If he was well versed then he would know that. If he wasn't then he shouldn't have thrown it out there like it was a fact. It bothers me when people do that. Apparently most people here are good with people spewing off misinformation. I get that now and will just let it slide in the future.
 
I've yammered in here enough that I probably owe some real discussion.

<blah>
Prolific excessive over abuse of extravagantly verbose prose doesn't make your woeful analysis any more palatable.Nor does it make you appear smart.

Green: Elite talent, less than great situation. That didn't slow down Calvin, Andre early in his career, Fitz last year, Bowe with Cassell, etc to a point where I would feel that 70/900/8 is a safe floor in 2011. Agree with others who predict elite level production by 2012 and beyond. I haven't drafted him in any dynasty leagues.
There was no "extravagantly verbose prose". I do use the word prolific too much, though. I just always hear it used in football talk to the point that I've accidentally incorporated it into all my football talk. But seriously, where did you get that idea? There are no fancy pants words in that post. Maybe you are the one being a peckerhead, trying to make something out of nothing.I really wasn't trying to appear smart, either. I don't have a lot of interest in Green for 2011 but felt that I should contribute something to the thread. So I did a little statistical legwork and passed it on. It wasn't supposed to be anything special. Just a little information people might find useful. If you get enough of those in one thread then you've got something good. I don't see what your problem is with that post.

 
'FF Ninja said:
I've yammered in here enough that I probably owe some real discussion.

<blah>
Prolific excessive over abuse of extravagantly verbose prose doesn't make your woeful analysis any more palatable.Nor does it make you appear smart.

Green: Elite talent, less than great situation. That didn't slow down Calvin, Andre early in his career, Fitz last year, Bowe with Cassell, etc to a point where I would feel that 70/900/8 is a safe floor in 2011. Agree with others who predict elite level production by 2012 and beyond. I haven't drafted him in any dynasty leagues.
There was no "extravagantly verbose prose". I do use the word prolific too much, though. I just always hear it used in football talk to the point that I've accidentally incorporated it into all my football talk. But seriously, where did you get that idea? There are no fancy pants words in that post. Maybe you are the one being a peckerhead, trying to make something out of nothing.

I really wasn't trying to appear smart, either. I don't have a lot of interest in Green for 2011 but felt that I should contribute something to the thread. So I did a little statistical legwork and passed it on. It wasn't supposed to be anything special. Just a little information people might find useful. If you get enough of those in one thread then you've got something good. I don't see what your problem is with that post.
Problem as I see it friend, is that you pissed in the shark pool, was called out for it, gotta hold of yourself and tried to make amends with a decent post. Takes a while to mend a broken rep damaged by a bad first impression. Glad you got your head on straight now. Stick to your good posts (like your rebound post above on Green) and folks round these parts will see you in a better light. When in Rome do as....
 
'FF Ninja said:
I've yammered in here enough that I probably owe some real discussion.

<blah>
Prolific excessive over abuse of extravagantly verbose prose doesn't make your woeful analysis any more palatable.Nor does it make you appear smart.

Green: Elite talent, less than great situation. That didn't slow down Calvin, Andre early in his career, Fitz last year, Bowe with Cassell, etc to a point where I would feel that 70/900/8 is a safe floor in 2011. Agree with others who predict elite level production by 2012 and beyond. I haven't drafted him in any dynasty leagues.
There was no "extravagantly verbose prose". I do use the word prolific too much, though. I just always hear it used in football talk to the point that I've accidentally incorporated it into all my football talk. But seriously, where did you get that idea? There are no fancy pants words in that post. Maybe you are the one being a peckerhead, trying to make something out of nothing.

I really wasn't trying to appear smart, either. I don't have a lot of interest in Green for 2011 but felt that I should contribute something to the thread. So I did a little statistical legwork and passed it on. It wasn't supposed to be anything special. Just a little information people might find useful. If you get enough of those in one thread then you've got something good. I don't see what your problem is with that post.
Problem as I see it friend, is that you pissed in the shark pool, was called out for it, gotta hold of yourself and tried to make amends with a decent post. Takes a while to mend a broken rep damaged by a bad first impression. Glad you got your head on straight now. Stick to your good posts (like your rebound post above on Green) and folks round these parts will see you in a better light. When in Rome do as....
:goodposting: Although, I'm not entirely convinced the kid gets it, as evidenced by thw "peckerhead" comment. Who says that?

 
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Boy, I really like the kid, but I can't help but be concerned about the poor quality of the Bengals organization. They offer very little stability. Whereas a kid like Jones goes to Atlanta who has been very impressive under Smith. After watching them twice play my Packers last season I came away with a very favorable impression of the coaching staff. Marvin Lewis is on the hot seat every year it seems. Mike Smith just keeps bringing his team forward.

I really like Green's talent. But he would need a QB. He'd need a system that can take advantage of it. This is one of those situations where IF he can assimilate the pro game and IF Cincinatti can figure out how to get him the ball consistently, he could be special. Too many questions for my liking. He might do as a long shot later in a draft if he really slid, but counting on Green to be more than a WR4 is too risky before the last part of the draft.

45 catches

700 yards

3 touchdowns

 
I dunno.

Marvin Lewis is on the hot seat and seemingly needing to prove himself year in and year out. His being sequestered with the Mike Brown and the team front office this past off season and trying to see whether or not they want to work together gives me the impression they all want to try and give it a go together. So now headed into the 2011 season, he will have been their HC since 2003.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/LewiMa0.htm

During that time, the offense while not prolific, did produce decent WR fantasy stats, granted all under the auspices of Carson Palmer and I think John Kitna and Fitzpatrick at the QB position.

During that time frame, Chad Ochocinco became a fairly decent fantasy WR with seasons 2003 - 2007 with an average performance of WR5 for the league over those 5 seasons.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JohnCh01.htm

Housh also had some receiving success from 2004 - 2008 on that offense.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HousTJ00.htm

So while they are a team in flux (new qb, new WR's, new OC) they have shown themselves in the past under Lewis to not be completely inept at generating WR fantasy points.

Quite frankly, it always seemed that during the aforementioned seasons, the problems with the Bengals was their defense. With Lewis coming from a defensive background - it is interesting that they blew up the offensive side of the team when historically, that looked like the stronger unit.

Going forward with this offense, it seems past performance is not a guarantee of future results. But history has shown that as a HC, Lewis run teams have had favorable fantasy results at the WR position. Hopefully for AJ Green owners, the new offensive leadership of the Bengals can replicate some of the successes that Palmer, Ocho, and Housh showed during that run.

Now with Palmer all but looking to be gone, the Bengals either need to bring in an experience vet QB while the grooming of heir apparent Andy Dalton takes place.

 
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Problem as I see it friend, is that you pissed in the shark pool, was called out for it, gotta hold of yourself and tried to make amends with a decent post. Takes a while to mend a broken rep damaged by a bad first impression. Glad you got your head on straight now. Stick to your good posts (like your rebound post above on Green) and folks round these parts will see you in a better light. When in Rome do as....
I see where you might get that impression, but truth is that it was not made to make ammends to the bitter people who have lashed out at me (and it was not very in depth bc I have little interest in Green for 2011). It was just to contribute as I have in all the spotlights I've posted in. (I particularly take offense to the ridiculous post claiming I was using "extravagant prose" when there was not a single uncommon word used in my post).I joined the forum solely due to what I read in the spotlight articles. I saw those 3-4 posts included at the end of the articles and figured that each thread had a wealth of in depth analysis, thoughtful projections, and productive debate. I don't mean to imply that there is a void of that, but I've been disappointed in the proportion of those types of posts to posts that are on topic but rather worthless.I regret filling this thread with so many off topic posts, but have felt the need to explain and defend myself. I respectfully ask that any other shots taken at me be sent as PMs (not that the post by pghrob was one of those). I have no desire to continue this "tard fight" as MS put it, but I did want to explain my intent.If I don't tire of these forums, I'm sure I can contribute but my selfish purpose is just to find well thought out contrary opinions that can help me see a situation in a new light when I am guilty of tunnel vision.
 
In keeper/dynasty leagues, I love him. He's a once-in-every-five-years type of WR a la Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. Long-term, talent trumps situation.

In redrafts, situation has almost (sometimes more so) as much to do with talent. And I think the Bengals are going to struggle this year, with no mini-camps, a likely-shortened training camp, a rookie QB (as all current signs point to Dalton being the Day 1 starter), and a division with excellent defenses. That's not to mention both Green and Dalton have yet to be signed... if the new labor deal doesn't include a rookie wage scale, this could be a big issue as well.

In 2011, I see a few big games from the talented rookie, but Green will struggle with the rest of the offense as he, Dalton, Gresham, and Simpson grow together.

45/700/5

 
I'm in the leagues with him and hes been talking about this guy for two years now. I cant get him to shut up about how hes going to be an absolute stud (calvin Fitz Andre style). He did whatever he could in both leagues to get 1.1 and was not willing to trade it after he got them( months before the NFL draft). He went out and got that guy for a reason, not because he heard someone talking about him on ESPN.I actually think your the one here with some faulty logic. You made a judgement based off his signature without knowing anything else. Thats like saying Fitz is on the decline because his stats went down last year. Gotta know all the sides before you go out making judgments like "this guy knows nothing". Sorry bro, you will learn eventually :)
It was the statement about Calvin Johnson's horrible situation that made me think he didn't know what he was talking. Detroit was a very prolific passing team when Calvin was drafted. If he was well versed then he would know that. If he wasn't then he shouldn't have thrown it out there like it was a fact. It bothers me when people do that. Apparently most people here are good with people spewing off misinformation. I get that now and will just let it slide in the future.
lol prolific? you mean John Kitna throwing bombs when the lions are down 20 with 5 minutes left? your blaming people for not looking close enough into things and your not doing it yourself.
 
I just don't get the Charles Rodgers comparison at all...He has 0 red flags about his character and was suspended because he sold a freakin jersey. The Bengles might be run by the zoo but they aren't that horrible of a team as a whole, looking forward i see Green being able to develop into one of the leagues best WR's. Calvin Johnson,Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson all were high draft picks and each one went to a bad situation (All top picks normally go to bad teams), but of all the teams i think Green is in the best situation of the 4. Sure there are questions about the QB situation but none were worse then what Calvin went through to start his career and yet if your a stud you still get the job done. I expect Cinci to go after a vet stop-gap QB in FA and then mold Dalton into the future of the franchise and to go along with a solid O-Line and a very good defense, and a decent running game and solid pass catchers surrounding Green (Shipley,Simpson,Gresham) that the team will be in line for a big improvement in 2012.....2011: 70 catches 950 yards 6TD's2012: 95 catches 1200 yards 11TD's
Ok, we get it. You've got him in two dynasty leagues. Don't pollute the projections with your blatant bias. At the very least put some time into your biased projections. You are expecting him to drop his ypr from 13.6 to 12.6 in his second year.Also, Calvin started his career on a team that threw for over 4000 yards, so is that really the worst situation to get drafted into?
If i didn't think he was going to be good then i wouldn't have drafted him obviously and many scouts have projected him to be in the mold of Fitz/Johnson so how i am just being bias?
You can have a BIAS or be BIASED, but not be BIAS... :mellow:
 
I'm in the leagues with him and hes been talking about this guy for two years now. I cant get him to shut up about how hes going to be an absolute stud (calvin Fitz Andre style). He did whatever he could in both leagues to get 1.1 and was not willing to trade it after he got them( months before the NFL draft). He went out and got that guy for a reason, not because he heard someone talking about him on ESPN.

I actually think your the one here with some faulty logic. You made a judgement based off his signature without knowing anything else. Thats like saying Fitz is on the decline because his stats went down last year. Gotta know all the sides before you go out making judgments like "this guy knows nothing". Sorry bro, you will learn eventually :)
It was the statement about Calvin Johnson's horrible situation that made me think he didn't know what he was talking. Detroit was a very prolific passing team when Calvin was drafted. If he was well versed then he would know that. If he wasn't then he shouldn't have thrown it out there like it was a fact. It bothers me when people do that. Apparently most people here are good with people spewing off misinformation. I get that now and will just let it slide in the future.
lol prolific? you mean John Kitna throwing bombs when the lions are down 20 with 5 minutes left? your blaming people for not looking close enough into things and your not doing it yourself.
Yup. The problem is that he abuses the word prolific here. They were a very active passing team, I'll give them that. And, they were above average in passing yards. But, to describe them as prolific -- or very prolific -- really shows a lack of understanding of what it means to be a quality passing offense, which is the point of this whole AJ Green discussion and what sort of situation he's entering into. Nevertheless, my problem with ninja has less to do with with the content, but more to do with his uber-dooshiness toward this community he just joined.

 
Now that Free Agency is all but wrapped up and nothing new on the Carson Palmer front...what does the Shark POol think going forward :confused:

It looks as Dalton will in fact be the guy so whatcha got in redrafts and more importantly Dynasty :popcorn:

 
Via CBSsports player page:

Injury scare for rookie WR Green: Bengals rookie WR A.J. Green hurt his right knee early in Wednesday's practice and did not finish. He had it wrapped in ice and walked off to the locker room without a noticeable limp, accompanied by a trainer. Both he and head coach Marvin Lewis suggest that the injury wasn't serious. Green hopes to return to the field Thursday.

(Updated 08/17/2011)

 
I've been kind of talking up AJ as a potential steal in PPR for a while. The Bengals main beat writer for the team seems to feel the same way. From last night:

oereedy Joe Reedy

6. RT @george_lunch @joereedy Do you project a 1000 yd receiving year from AJ Green?>Yes

He takes 20 questions from fans on occasion and answered a fan saying he expected over 1,000 yards from AJ this year.

So maybe you are thinking Reedy is just a big Bengals homer? Well in the same Q&A he put the Bengals chances at winning more than 4 games at 40%...

 

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