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Steve Smith & Mario Manningham, WRs, New York Giants (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Steve Smith & Mario Manningham, WRs, New York Giants

Player Page Link: Steve Smith Player Page

Player Page Link: Mario Manningham Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
Before going down, Steve Smith was a WR2 and Manningham was a WR4 in most PPR formats.

To me, this all depends on Smith's injury. I don't hear of this injury too often, but this seems like something that can linger and get worst over time. If that's the case, I agree with the other posters and Manningham will have a career year. If he comes back and looks fine, I expect him to be a solid PPR league starter all year and perform as a WR2/WR3 type player.

Healthy Smith: 90rec, 950yards, 5td

 
Has anyone heard anything about Smith's recovery? Also, isn't he a free agent?

If he's back on the Giants, he has shown a great rapport with Manning and is a candidate for bounce back player of the year. At the very least, value player of the year. He had 47 rec in 8 games last year for 517 yds and 3 TD. Currently staff ranked at WR39 and non-ppr ADP of WR41. If he's healthy and on the Giants, he'll be on all my teams.

 
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/giants/smith_says_giants_want_me_back_DnM6f5nqejU8MoBxzGPPfO

An article that came out June 2nd quoted Steve Smith:

“It’s looking good,” Smith said. “The doctors have been impressed and I’m excited about that. ... There’s a bunch of tests that I’ve been doing. If I had to start running today, I could. We're gonna backtrack a couple of things just because of the lockout. We don't really have to push it so much. But I'm pretty close."

-------------------------------------------------------

I think it's believable, if Smith were trying to make it seem like he was healthier than he was, then I think he wouldn't have said they were easing up on some things due to the lockout. There doesn't seem to be much speculation from beat writers that Smith won't be back with the Giants.

Hixon says he's back to 100% as well, he probably needs to either show he can contribute as a WR and not just a KR. He'll be 27 in October so he's still young. Hixon, Barden, Cruz, Calhoun, Clayton, Hagan, and Devin Thomas will be competing for the remaining 1 or 2 slots if they keep 6 WRs, I doubt they keep 7.

 
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Too difficult to call until Smith is signed to a team. If the Giants retain his services then Manningham's production will suffer. If Smith walks, Manningham is in line for a breakout season with Nicks taking double teams. Personally, I think the stable of young guys might make it easier for NYG to show Smith the door.

 
Interesting to note that Nicks did much better with Smith than without him. Probably due to his targets dipping from 10.4 to 8.8 per game. But also his TD production suffered greatly.

 
This, to me, is one of the more interesting situations at WR this year.

Smith really emerged two seasons ago as a reliable possession receiver, but with enough downfield speed to be more than "10 yards and a cloud of dust" type of PPR-only option. But he was quickly trumped by the overall elite skill set of Hakeem Nicks. Either way, it set up for Eli Manning to have a daunting 1-2 punch for years to come. But a funny thing happened on the way to the box score. Mario Manningham, who brings a different (and perhaps more compelling) skill set to the table, while Smith got hurt.

I wouldn't be surprised AT ALL, if Manningham delivered Top 20 numbers with a full season as the starter, and with the new free agency rules it appears that Steve Smith will be unrestricted. We'll get a real sense of how serious Smith's injuries/recovery are by how aggressively the Giants move to re-sign him in the coming days. If Smith is allowed to walk, Manningham is criminally underdrafted right now IMHO, and the fact no one has even projected (or discussed) him yet illustrates that.

 
I think NY resigns Steve Smith. I'm also worried about the knee to start the year. Let's not forget that NY drafted a slot WR (Jerrel Jernigan) in the 3rd round this year. If this was a normal year for rookies I think NY might have let Smith walk. Actually, I'm predicting Smith starts the year on PuP. Manningham is in for a great year, as I don't see Smith coming back and replacing him. I think when Smith returns, he'll be the #3 option.

Manningham: 75 rec. / 1160 yards / 10 TD's

Smith (10 games) 45 rec. / 463 yards / 3 TD's

 
Manningham is just too inconsistent to be a WR2 imo. Jernigan is a Sinorice Moss clone. The giants need Steve Smith to come back strong to be truly successful in the passing game.

 
I think NY resigns Steve Smith. I'm also worried about the knee to start the year. Let's not forget that NY drafted a slot WR (Jerrel Jernigan) in the 3rd round this year. If this was a normal year for rookies I think NY might have let Smith walk. Actually, I'm predicting Smith starts the year on PuP. Manningham is in for a great year, as I don't see Smith coming back and replacing him. I think when Smith returns, he'll be the #3 option.

Manningham: 75 rec. / 1160 yards / 10 TD's

Smith (10 games) 45 rec. / 463 yards / 3 TD's
That would have put Manningham in the range of WR8 last season (PPR). Any qualms about that?
 
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I think NY resigns Steve Smith. I'm also worried about the knee to start the year. Let's not forget that NY drafted a slot WR (Jerrel Jernigan) in the 3rd round this year. If this was a normal year for rookies I think NY might have let Smith walk. Actually, I'm predicting Smith starts the year on PuP. Manningham is in for a great year, as I don't see Smith coming back and replacing him. I think when Smith returns, he'll be the #3 option.

Manningham: 75 rec. / 1160 yards / 10 TD's

Smith (10 games) 45 rec. / 463 yards / 3 TD's
That would have put Manningham in the range of WR8 last season (PPR). Any qualms about that?
He had 60/944/9 last year and only started 8 games. To get 15/200/1 is about 3 games worth of stats. Perfectly possible if he's the starter.
 
I think NY resigns Steve Smith. I'm also worried about the knee to start the year. Let's not forget that NY drafted a slot WR (Jerrel Jernigan) in the 3rd round this year. If this was a normal year for rookies I think NY might have let Smith walk. Actually, I'm predicting Smith starts the year on PuP. Manningham is in for a great year, as I don't see Smith coming back and replacing him. I think when Smith returns, he'll be the #3 option.

Manningham: 75 rec. / 1160 yards / 10 TD's

Smith (10 games) 45 rec. / 463 yards / 3 TD's
That would have put Manningham in the range of WR8 last season (PPR). Any qualms about that?
I will say that I've been higher on Manningham than anyone I know this offseason. I do see a jump in receptions this year. That should lead to more yards. As we all know, TD's are hard to predict for any player. I've stated in the 2011 sleeper thread that I would not be surprised if Manningham is a top 15 WR. I stand by my predictions. But your right, I can not say for sure he'll be a top 10 WR.

 
So Maningham has a higher upside now than Hakeem Nicks? Pass the dutchie please.
If you think about it YES. Where his ADP is currently going, he could well indeed have more upside.
I understand as Nicks is gone pretty early in the draft but if Smith comes back I think you have a combo at the 2/3 spot...also don't discount the deep sleeper named Victor Cruz who should be ready to roll in 2011.
 
So Maningham has a higher upside now than Hakeem Nicks? Pass the dutchie please.
If you think about it YES. Where his ADP is currently going, he could well indeed have more upside.
:goodposting:

When you draft Nicks as the 3rd, 4th, 5th or even 6th WR off the board are you really going to be surprised if he's the #1 at the end of the year? If you get Nicks for 16 games, I'd say he's a lock for top 3. I'm not only going off last year's points per game, but my thoughts that Eli will continue to air it out. I'm also in the camp that Eli's string of 4K passing seasons will continue. FYI, I have Nicks as my #1 WR for 2011.

Manningham on the other hand has an ADP of WR 35. Originally I thought he'd put up top 15-25 numbers. After further review and a posting from Trey :) , I have him around top 10. If you draft him at WR 35 and he puts up anywhere near top 10 numbers, that is huge upside.

Granted, my opinion on Manningham is with Steve Smith starting the year on PuP and coming back and not being much of a factor. I'm worried about the knee. If Steve Smith comes out the gate and lights it up, all bets are off. Obviously if that happens, my predictions are off. Although don't forget that Manningham was the #30 WR in the NFL as the true #3 all year in 09. I do like Cruz, but can't see him getting on the field with a healthy trio of Nicks, Smith and Manningham.

 
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I find lumping these guys together to be a bit curious. I've always felt the two players are like apples and oranges. Manningham stretching the field and Smith being the possession receiver. Overall I felt that the Giants offense seemed to have a better rhythm with Smith on the field, so I think he'll be more valued by the team.

Is my logic way off here?

 
'griff321 said:
I find lumping these guys together to be a bit curious. I've always felt the two players are like apples and oranges. Manningham stretching the field and Smith being the possession receiver. Overall I felt that the Giants offense seemed to have a better rhythm with Smith on the field, so I think he'll be more valued by the team.Is my logic way off here?
Lumping them together is really a byproduct of two issues:1) Generally we only give WR1s their own spotlight, and neither Smith nor Manningham are the WR1 on this team2) In cases where there's a bit of a debate about playing time, or in this case it's in flux, we've found it easier for people to discuss both players because in times past there would be a lot of redundancy if we separated them out
 
I am also high on Manningham and targeting him in 6th round. he had three HUGE games in a row to end the year, 2 of them happened with Nicks in the game.

Smith obviously a concern, but I think Manningham's talent is too hard to ignore. If Smith walks, taking Manningham in the mid-rounds is a no-brainer.

 
'Ministry of Pain said:
'the spanker said:
'Ministry of Pain said:
So Maningham has a higher upside now than Hakeem Nicks? Pass the dutchie please.
If you think about it YES. Where his ADP is currently going, he could well indeed have more upside.
I understand as Nicks is gone pretty early in the draft but if Smith comes back I think you have a combo at the 2/3 spot...also don't discount the deep sleeper named Victor Cruz who should be ready to roll in 2011.
Don't get too high on Cruz, I think it was beat writer Mike Garafolo, wrote that the coaches are actually higher on Duke Calhoun than Cruz.
 
'Ministry of Pain said:
'the spanker said:
'Ministry of Pain said:
So Maningham has a higher upside now than Hakeem Nicks? Pass the dutchie please.
If you think about it YES. Where his ADP is currently going, he could well indeed have more upside.
I understand as Nicks is gone pretty early in the draft but if Smith comes back I think you have a combo at the 2/3 spot...also don't discount the deep sleeper named Victor Cruz who should be ready to roll in 2011.
Don't get too high on Cruz, I think it was beat writer Mike Garafolo, wrote that the coaches are actually higher on Duke Calhoun than Cruz.
I'm joking most of the way. Good info to have, ty.
 
'Ministry of Pain said:
So Maningham has a higher upside now than Hakeem Nicks? Pass the dutchie please.
Nicks is top 3 in any format I thought he said top 15??? Obviously Nicks is a stud and manningham/smith are gonna fight for 2
 
'Ministry of Pain said:
So Maningham has a higher upside now than Hakeem Nicks? Pass the dutchie please.
Nicks is top 3 in any format I thought he said top 15??? Obviously Nicks is a stud and manningham/smith are gonna fight for 2
But it's all about value and more often than not it's about those players in the later rounds who cement championships.I love Nicks like everyone else but keep in mind in many drafts you won't have Nicks on your team unless you take him in the first round.
 
'griff321 said:
I find lumping these guys together to be a bit curious. I've always felt the two players are like apples and oranges. Manningham stretching the field and Smith being the possession receiver. Overall I felt that the Giants offense seemed to have a better rhythm with Smith on the field, so I think he'll be more valued by the team.Is my logic way off here?
Lumping them together is really a byproduct of two issues:1) Generally we only give WR1s their own spotlight, and neither Smith nor Manningham are the WR1 on this team2) In cases where there's a bit of a debate about playing time, or in this case it's in flux, we've found it easier for people to discuss both players because in times past there would be a lot of redundancy if we separated them out
I like having them in one thread like this personally.
 
Better get on the Manningham train now...

(Rotoworld) Mario Manningham is locked in as the Giants' No. 2 wide receiver.Analysis: With free agent Steve Smith (knee) unlikely to make an impact even if re-signed, Manningham's time is now. The fourth-year breakout candidate dazzled down the stretch last season, recording three 100-yard games and four touchdowns over the final three weeks. With the physical tools to make big plays after the catch, Manningham has turned into one of our favorite value picks.
 
I posted this in another thread. Just something to keep in mind:

We all know the Nicks love. I've got it too. But consider this from last year:

Nicks -- 12 games started (13 played) -- 79/1052/11

Targets -- 128

YPR -- 13.3

Catch % -- 62%

TDs/target -- 8.5%

Manningham -- 8 games started (16 games played) -- 60/944/9

Targets -- 92

YPR -- 15.7

Catch % -- 65%

TDs/target -- 9.7%

So all the love for Nicks and it seems Mario was actually even more productive. He has a higher YPR AND a higher catch % AND a higher TD per target (and rec) %. Of course, there's no guarantee he gets as many targets, but if he does, he may even outproduce Nicks. He's only 25. And even the previous year, he had 57/822/5.

And Mario still put up nice #'s as the #3 guy in that offense.

If he's the #2 and gets another 20-30 targets....... :unsure:

 
I posted this in another thread. Just something to keep in mind:

We all know the Nicks love. I've got it too. But consider this from last year:

Nicks -- 12 games started (13 played) -- 79/1052/11

Targets -- 128

YPR -- 13.3

Catch % -- 62%

TDs/target -- 8.5%

Manningham -- 8 games started (16 games played) -- 60/944/9

Targets -- 92

YPR -- 15.7

Catch % -- 65%

TDs/target -- 9.7%

So all the love for Nicks and it seems Mario was actually even more productive. He has a higher YPR AND a higher catch % AND a higher TD per target (and rec) %. Of course, there's no guarantee he gets as many targets, but if he does, he may even outproduce Nicks. He's only 25. And even the previous year, he had 57/822/5.

And Mario still put up nice #'s as the #3 guy in that offense.

If he's the #2 and gets another 20-30 targets....... :unsure:
I've been a long time Manningham supporter and I think this is the last year you will be able to pick him up cheap in dynasty. :thumbup:
 
I posted this in another thread. Just something to keep in mind:

We all know the Nicks love. I've got it too. But consider this from last year:

Nicks -- 12 games started (13 played) -- 79/1052/11

Targets -- 128

YPR -- 13.3

Catch % -- 62%

TDs/target -- 8.5%

Manningham -- 8 games started (16 games played) -- 60/944/9

Targets -- 92

YPR -- 15.7

Catch % -- 65%

TDs/target -- 9.7%

So all the love for Nicks and it seems Mario was actually even more productive. He has a higher YPR AND a higher catch % AND a higher TD per target (and rec) %. Of course, there's no guarantee he gets as many targets, but if he does, he may even outproduce Nicks. He's only 25. And even the previous year, he had 57/822/5.

And Mario still put up nice #'s as the #3 guy in that offense.

If he's the #2 and gets another 20-30 targets....... :unsure:
I've been a long time Manningham supporter and I think this is the last year you will be able to pick him up cheap in dynasty. :thumbup:
Agreed. Been buying in as many spots as possible.
 
I've beem pimpin Manningham for a good while.

I love Steve Smith and love what he brings the Giants offense, but Manningham is a play maker who if he continues to progress he is going to be a very good WR for a long time in this league. Manningham has done a lot with a little so far.

Manningham finds a way to get open and is very quick and elusive. He is great with the ball in his hands. If Steve Smith returns to form the Giants are going to have some tough decisions going forward with what they want to do with their WR siutaion. They won't be able to keep both Smith and Manningham for the future and Manningham may be a very hot WR as he will be a free agent next year.

Manningham was awesome in college and could have arguably taken in the first round had he not had some major character concerns. He was busted with marijuana twice and lied about it at the combine and fell into the 3rd round.

His last year at Michigan as a junior he had 72 catches for 1174 yards and 12 td's.

The thing you have to like about Manninham is he finds ways to get TD's. His freshamn year at college he had 6 td's on only 27 catches, and then his sophmore year he had 9 td's on 38 catches. In the NFL his first year he barely saw the field but in year 2 in limited time he had 5 td's and then 9 td's last year. This shows that he has a knack for getting open.

 
I didn't see anyone post this, but John Clayton twitted this earlier today:

Coming from Tom Coughlin, it looks as though the earliest we'll see Giants WR Steve Smith is midseason. He had microfracture surgery.
Seems we need to really bump Manningham and downgrade Smith to nothing more than a possible FA pickup midseason.
 
Devin Thomas hurt (finger) Ramses hurt who is # 3 receiver?
Jernigan or Cruz would be my guess.
(Rotoworld) Giants GM Jerry Reese and defensive captain Justin Tuck singled out Victor Cruz Thursday when asked who could replace Steve Smith in the slot.

Analysis: Cruz is enjoying an impressive camp for the second straight August, and he has experience in the slot. "I'm really comfortable (playing) inside," Cruz said. "In college I played inside. ... I understand the reads and stuff like that that comes with the inside slot position." Cruz will have to hold off Domenik Hixon before he reaches late-round flier status.
 
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Manningham and Nicks make one of the more deadly combos at WR. I really would not burn brain cells on the WR3 because no one is as taneted as Manningham was at the WR3 spot.

Nicks and Manningham vs Asamogu, DRC, and Samuel should be very entertaining as will the combo at Dallas.

 
'Ministry of Pain said:
Manningham and Nicks make one of the more deadly combos at WR. I really would not burn brain cells on the WR3 because no one is as taneted as Manningham was at the WR3 spot.
In the end that is what I did just splut up 40 receptions b/ the 3 of them for my projections
 
Devin Thomas hurt (finger) Ramses hurt who is # 3 receiver?
Hixon has looked very good ... he is probably 3rd at this pint
I wouldn't be surprised if Hixon is cut. The top 4 spots should be Nicks, Mario, Cruz, and Jernigan. Then I think Barden being a 3rd rounder gives him the last spot.
Currently it is probably Nicks, Mario, Hixon, Thomas, Cruz, Reynaud, Jernigan. Barden will be on the PUP and it wouldn't surprise me if he gets put on IR, like they did with Cruz for a minor injury last year, so the Giants have another off-season to see if he can develop into something.
 
So Mario was just dropped in my league as the owner had to drop him to pick up Scott (he was a Benson owner).

Thoughts on Mario going forward? Thus far he has been a disappointment.

 
So Mario was just dropped in my league as the owner had to drop him to pick up Scott (he was a Benson owner).Thoughts on Mario going forward? Thus far he has been a disappointment.
If Eli throws that first deep ball a 1/2 yard further, Manningham is on pace for 1300-8 and we're not having this discussion.
 

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