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Ryan Williams & Chris Wells, RBs, Arizona Cardinals (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Ryan Williams & Chris Wells, RBs, Arizona Cardinals

Player Page Link: Ryan Williams Player Page

Player Page Link: Chris Wells Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
Love Williams's talent. Not a burner out in the open field, but has an excellent burst through the line, lateral shift, and enough drive to break through tackles. I look back mostly at 2009, as last year was just a bust with his hammy. Pretty bullish on him long-term.

That said, I don't think Wizz likes to put in guys that can't contribute as pass blockers, and this is an area that's going to take time to develop. Beanie's been productive enough that I doubt Williams contributes much in the immediate term.

Early predictions without any camp observations:

Wells: 180/800/8

Williams: 120/550/3

 
'cobalt_27 said:
Love Williams's talent. Not a burner out in the open field, but has an excellent burst through the line, lateral shift, and enough drive to break through tackles. I look back mostly at 2009, as last year was just a bust with his hammy. Pretty bullish on him long-term.That said, I don't think Wizz likes to put in guys that can't contribute as pass blockers, and this is an area that's going to take time to develop. Beanie's been productive enough that I doubt Williams contributes much in the immediate term. Early predictions without any camp observations:Wells: 180/800/8Williams: 120/550/3
Is it sad that I would be happy if beanie could do that for me this year? lol
 
With the release of Tim Hightower, it’s going to get interesting in Arizona. The prediction here is that the Cardinals cleared the way to make Ryan Williams a quick contributor. The Cardinals had him in their top 15 overall on draft night. So when he fell to the mid second round, they pounced on Williams to solidify the ground game, which had been inconsistent either through durability (Wells) or fumbling concerns (Hightower).

The smallish Williams had a breakout season in 2009 with the Virginia Tech Hokies, and an injury plagued 2010 season, before declaring early for the draft and leaving 2 years of NCAA eligibility on the table. But he looks ready for the step up to the pros as he has shown ability to be an explosive runner both inside and outside of the tackles. He won’t be confused with a power back, but has nice burst, drives his legs and has a propensity for bouncing off or spinning away from tacklers.

His competition is mainly Beanie Wells, with LaRod Stephens-Howling also in the backfield mix. But Beanie’s long documented health problems create perhaps the easiest path for any of the 2011 rookie running backs to get a shot at the lead role. Williams’s talents are apparent, as a guy who can get behind defenders quickly to make big plays, yet also as a smart runner who can pick the right holes near the line of scrimmage. One of Williams’ best assets is his patience, which is hard for many RBs to exhibit early in their pro careers. His cutback abilities also make him stand out.

At 5-9, 205, Williams is not yet about to take over as a featured back. At least not in week #1. He will likely need to learn NFL pass protection schemes to stay on the field, and it is likely Wells will get the most snaps early on. I think he gradually overtakes Wells, as it will be readily apparent that Williams has NFL caliber moves, and he gets it done on a consistent basis.

Here’s my projected breakdown:

Ryan Williams: 210/900/7 with 10/80/1

Beanie Wells: 150/600/2 with 25/180/0

 
Beanie cant stay healthy.. This has been a trend/fact all the way back to his OSU days...he'll get injured at some point... and williams runs away with the starting job...

 
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Just something to keep in mind for those predicting a lot of carries for Williams:

Since 2001 (last 10 yrs):

--There have been 36 rookie RBs that have 150 or more carries

--18 of the 36 were 1st round picks

--Only 6 of the 36 were 2nd round picks

Here are the 2nd round picks and their situations on how they got those carries:

2009 LeSean McCoy -- He had 155 carries and got those because Westbrook got injured and there was no one else. 2nd on the team in carries was Leonard Weaver with 70

2006 MJD -- Had 166 carries but was the #2 behind Fred Taylor's 231 carries

2004 Julius Jones -- Had 197 carries and only got them when Eddie George got hurt. Julius had only 5 carries heading into week 11 and then got a monster workload to end the year on a tear

2002 Clinton Portis -- We know the deal with him. First of all, it's Shanahan where anything can happen. And he had no competition whatsoever. Drafted as the lead RB

2001 Travis Henry -- He was drafted as the starter in Buffalo. Shawn Bryson was the #2 RB. He had 213 carries

2001 Anthony Thomas -- 278 carries and one of the best cases to hope for if you're a Ryan Williams owner. I didn't follow them much there and don't remember the situation, but he was clearly given the load over James Allen's 135 carries.

That's it over the last 10 years. So, aside from an injury, which is a distinct possibility, I'd start to temper some of these projections for Ryan Williams this year.

 
Let me also add:

Here is a list of RBs drafted in the 1st round over the last several years:

Ronnie Brown

Cedric Benson

Cadillac

Bush

Maroney

DeAngelo

Addai

ADP

Lynch

McFadden

Stewart

Felix Jones

Mendenhall

Chris Johnson

Moreno

Beanie

Donald Brown

Aside from Donald Brown (and Beanie to this point), every RB on that list was given the opportunity to succeed (or fail). When you combine that with the general lack of success of 2nd round RBs in their 1st year, barring injury, the lead job will be Beanie's aside from going against some serious odds.

 
beanie might be one of the best value picks/trades this year.

If you look at him the year before last, you see the possibility. I think way too many people are looking at that trainwreck in the dessert last year and not seeing that the entire team was a mess. I doubt many RBs could have done much behind the line and with that QB last year.

 
beanie might be one of the best value picks/trades this year.If you look at him the year before last, you see the possibility. I think way too many people are looking at that trainwreck in the dessert last year and not seeing that the entire team was a mess. I doubt many RBs could have done much behind the line and with that QB last year.
He also had a knee injury all year. He clearly looked different last year compared to his rookie year.
 
'cobalt_27 said:
Love Williams's talent. Not a burner out in the open field, but has an excellent burst through the line, lateral shift, and enough drive to break through tackles. I look back mostly at 2009, as last year was just a bust with his hammy. Pretty bullish on him long-term.

That said, I don't think Wizz likes to put in guys that can't contribute as pass blockers, and this is an area that's going to take time to develop. Beanie's been productive enough that I doubt Williams contributes much in the immediate term.

Early predictions without any camp observations:

Wells: 180/800/8

Williams: 120/550/3
I like the writeup, but those carry totals look low. Only 300 total carries between those two players? Although I like the Williams projection, I see a healthy Wells getting more than that. The Cardinals were dreadful last season and managed 298 carries between their RBs. This team will be better with Kolb and should have an improved offense and running game.I liked Wells last season to have a breakout year after finishing 2009 strong. He was telling the media how amped up he was to be "the guy," but Wells injured his knee in the preseason and was pretty putrid in 2010, just like everything else in Arizona.

Fast forward to 2011, and the Cardinals have acquired a serviceable QB while also trading away half of Wells' competition for carries.

Beanie Wells predicted Thursday that this is "definitely going to be his year without a doubt" to break out as an NFL starter. "This is my third year and three strikes and you're out, and I'm definitely not striking out," said Wells. "I am ready to tear it up. It's my time and I am ready to go out and prove that."
Beanie Wells is participating in Cardinals player-organized workouts, and reportedly looks as if "he doesn't have an ounce of body fat on him."
That last quote indicates the drafting of Ryan Williams lit a fire under Beanie, and he's been working his tail off in an effort to prove his doubters wrong. The trading of a reliable veteran RB like Tim Hightower also leads me to believe that the Cardinals coaching staff has liked what they've seen from Wells this offseason, and they're ready to give him the bulk of the carries.Whisenhunt gave a healthy 1st round pick in Chris Wells just 176 carries in his rookie season on a pass first team, and most of those carries were accumulated from week 9 forward. Depending on what Ryan Williams shows in camp and how Beanie looks will determine the early season usage. I'd say Ryan Williams is in line for roughly 125 carries depending on the health of both players. Second round picks aren't normally relied upon to carry the load for an NFL team, especially when a first rounder is still around. I would also expect Wells to receive the goalline work.

Chris Wells - 225 carries at 4.2 per carry for 945 yards 8 TDs

Ryan Williams - 125 carries at 4.0 per carry for 500 yards 4 TDs

It's difficult to predict reception totals until we see how these players will be used in the passing game, 3rd downs, etc.

The projection for Wells is modest, but I really like him as a RB sleeper and breakout candidate this season. He showed me enough flash in his rookie year to make me believe in him.

 
Interesting that the Ryan Williams supporters are using injury history as a slight against Chris Wells...

Healthy Beanie averaged 4.5 yards a carry and looked like a freaking locomotive in his rookie season.

 
'cobalt_27 said:
Love Williams's talent. Not a burner out in the open field, but has an excellent burst through the line, lateral shift, and enough drive to break through tackles. I look back mostly at 2009, as last year was just a bust with his hammy. Pretty bullish on him long-term.

That said, I don't think Wizz likes to put in guys that can't contribute as pass blockers, and this is an area that's going to take time to develop. Beanie's been productive enough that I doubt Williams contributes much in the immediate term.

Early predictions without any camp observations:

Wells: 180/800/8

Williams: 120/550/3
I like the writeup, but those carry totals look low. Only 300 total carries between those two players? Although I like the Williams projection, I see a healthy Wells getting more than that. The Cardinals were dreadful last season and managed 298 carries between their RBs. This team will be better with Kolb and should have an improved offense and running game.I liked Wells last season to have a breakout year after finishing 2009 strong. He was telling the media how amped up he was to be "the guy," but Wells injured his knee in the preseason and was pretty putrid in 2010, just like everything else in Arizona.

Fast forward to 2011, and the Cardinals have acquired a serviceable QB while also trading away half of Wells' competition for carries.

Beanie Wells predicted Thursday that this is "definitely going to be his year without a doubt" to break out as an NFL starter. "This is my third year and three strikes and you're out, and I'm definitely not striking out," said Wells. "I am ready to tear it up. It's my time and I am ready to go out and prove that."
Beanie Wells is participating in Cardinals player-organized workouts, and reportedly looks as if "he doesn't have an ounce of body fat on him."
That last quote indicates the drafting of Ryan Williams lit a fire under Beanie, and he's been working his tail off in an effort to prove his doubters wrong. The trading of a reliable veteran RB like Tim Hightower also leads me to believe that the Cardinals coaching staff has liked what they've seen from Wells this offseason, and they're ready to give him the bulk of the carries.Whisenhunt gave a healthy 1st round pick in Chris Wells just 176 carries in his rookie season on a pass first team, and most of those carries were accumulated from week 9 forward. Depending on what Ryan Williams shows in camp and how Beanie looks will determine the early season usage. I'd say Ryan Williams is in line for roughly 125 carries depending on the health of both players. Second round picks aren't normally relied upon to carry the load for an NFL team, especially when a first rounder is still around. I would also expect Wells to receive the goalline work.

Chris Wells - 225 carries at 4.2 per carry for 945 yards 8 TDs

Ryan Williams - 125 carries at 4.0 per carry for 500 yards 4 TDs

It's difficult to predict reception totals until we see how these players will be used in the passing game, 3rd downs, etc.

The projection for Wells is modest, but I really like him as a RB sleeper and breakout candidate this season. He showed me enough flash in his rookie year to make me believe in him.
:goodposting: I think those are very reasonable projections. Barring injury, I'd be surprised if Beanie got much less than those numbers. I think there's definite room for a higher ceiling but that's not what I'd be betting on.

 
'cobalt_27 said:
Love Williams's talent. Not a burner out in the open field, but has an excellent burst through the line, lateral shift, and enough drive to break through tackles. I look back mostly at 2009, as last year was just a bust with his hammy. Pretty bullish on him long-term.

That said, I don't think Wizz likes to put in guys that can't contribute as pass blockers, and this is an area that's going to take time to develop. Beanie's been productive enough that I doubt Williams contributes much in the immediate term.

Early predictions without any camp observations:

Wells: 180/800/8

Williams: 120/550/3
I like the writeup, but those carry totals look low. Only 300 total carries between those two players? Although I like the Williams projection, I see a healthy Wells getting more than that. The Cardinals were dreadful last season and managed 298 carries between their RBs. This team will be better with Kolb and should have an improved offense and running game.I liked Wells last season to have a breakout year after finishing 2009 strong. He was telling the media how amped up he was to be "the guy," but Wells injured his knee in the preseason and was pretty putrid in 2010, just like everything else in Arizona.

Fast forward to 2011, and the Cardinals have acquired a serviceable QB while also trading away half of Wells' competition for carries.

Beanie Wells predicted Thursday that this is "definitely going to be his year without a doubt" to break out as an NFL starter. "This is my third year and three strikes and you're out, and I'm definitely not striking out," said Wells. "I am ready to tear it up. It's my time and I am ready to go out and prove that."
Beanie Wells is participating in Cardinals player-organized workouts, and reportedly looks as if "he doesn't have an ounce of body fat on him."
That last quote indicates the drafting of Ryan Williams lit a fire under Beanie, and he's been working his tail off in an effort to prove his doubters wrong. The trading of a reliable veteran RB like Tim Hightower also leads me to believe that the Cardinals coaching staff has liked what they've seen from Wells this offseason, and they're ready to give him the bulk of the carries.Whisenhunt gave a healthy 1st round pick in Chris Wells just 176 carries in his rookie season on a pass first team, and most of those carries were accumulated from week 9 forward. Depending on what Ryan Williams shows in camp and how Beanie looks will determine the early season usage. I'd say Ryan Williams is in line for roughly 125 carries depending on the health of both players. Second round picks aren't normally relied upon to carry the load for an NFL team, especially when a first rounder is still around. I would also expect Wells to receive the goalline work.

Chris Wells - 225 carries at 4.2 per carry for 945 yards 8 TDs

Ryan Williams - 125 carries at 4.0 per carry for 500 yards 4 TDs

It's difficult to predict reception totals until we see how these players will be used in the passing game, 3rd downs, etc.

The projection for Wells is modest, but I really like him as a RB sleeper and breakout candidate this season. He showed me enough flash in his rookie year to make me believe in him.
:goodposting: I think those are very reasonable projections. Barring injury, I'd be surprised if Beanie got much less than those numbers. I think there's definite room for a higher ceiling but that's not what I'd be betting on.
Man you guys are making me feeling a lot better about this situation than I initially felt.I guess thats what spotlight threads are suppose to do thought right ;) . But seriously, I was a Bit surprised and happy when I learned Hightower was traded and thought that would bump up Beanies stats a little bit. Hes dirt cheap right now and I dont even see people buying now. I own him , Stewart , and spiller in one league, lets just say somewhere along Ryan WIlliams getting drafted, Deangelo resigning for a boatload of money and the report spiller is staying on kickoffs, that my fantast prospects are looking dim lol. But regardless I think beanie is a great buy low at this point, and barring an injury (please lord no :no: ) He should be a solid RB2 this year.
 
Coach Ken Whisenhunt indicated that Beanie Wells is the clear starter in the Cardinals backfield following the Tim Hightower trade.

"To say this is a make or break season is a little premature," said Whiz. "But this is what he wanted. Clearly he's the guy." It doesn't get more clean-cut than that. As we suspected, Wells will take over as the lead back with rookie Ryan Williams as the passing-down specialist. As long as his knee is 100 percent, Wells absolutely has the talent to keep the job on early downs. He's a high-upside RB2 in standard scoring leagues following this news.

-----------------------

This is starting to look like Beanie could be a real sleeper this year.

 
Just something to keep in mind for those predicting a lot of carries for Williams:Since 2001 (last 10 yrs):--There have been 36 rookie RBs that have 150 or more carries--18 of the 36 were 1st round picks--Only 6 of the 36 were 2nd round picksHere are the 2nd round picks and their situations on how they got those carries:2009 LeSean McCoy -- He had 155 carries and got those because Westbrook got injured and there was no one else. 2nd on the team in carries was Leonard Weaver with 702006 MJD -- Had 166 carries but was the #2 behind Fred Taylor's 231 carries2004 Julius Jones -- Had 197 carries and only got them when Eddie George got hurt. Julius had only 5 carries heading into week 11 and then got a monster workload to end the year on a tear2002 Clinton Portis -- We know the deal with him. First of all, it's Shanahan where anything can happen. And he had no competition whatsoever. Drafted as the lead RB2001 Travis Henry -- He was drafted as the starter in Buffalo. Shawn Bryson was the #2 RB. He had 213 carries2001 Anthony Thomas -- 278 carries and one of the best cases to hope for if you're a Ryan Williams owner. I didn't follow them much there and don't remember the situation, but he was clearly given the load over James Allen's 135 carries.That's it over the last 10 years. So, aside from an injury, which is a distinct possibility, I'd start to temper some of these projections for Ryan Williams this year.
Left out Matt Forte somehow. He was drafted in '08 in the 2nd round to CHI to compete with Benson but Benson got in trouble with the law multiple times and was cut before the season started. Forte ended up the starter having to only beat out the "other" Adrian Peterson.
 
Just something to keep in mind for those predicting a lot of carries for Williams:Since 2001 (last 10 yrs):--There have been 36 rookie RBs that have 150 or more carries--18 of the 36 were 1st round picks--Only 6 of the 36 were 2nd round picksHere are the 2nd round picks and their situations on how they got those carries:2009 LeSean McCoy -- He had 155 carries and got those because Westbrook got injured and there was no one else. 2nd on the team in carries was Leonard Weaver with 702006 MJD -- Had 166 carries but was the #2 behind Fred Taylor's 231 carries2004 Julius Jones -- Had 197 carries and only got them when Eddie George got hurt. Julius had only 5 carries heading into week 11 and then got a monster workload to end the year on a tear2002 Clinton Portis -- We know the deal with him. First of all, it's Shanahan where anything can happen. And he had no competition whatsoever. Drafted as the lead RB2001 Travis Henry -- He was drafted as the starter in Buffalo. Shawn Bryson was the #2 RB. He had 213 carries2001 Anthony Thomas -- 278 carries and one of the best cases to hope for if you're a Ryan Williams owner. I didn't follow them much there and don't remember the situation, but he was clearly given the load over James Allen's 135 carries.That's it over the last 10 years. So, aside from an injury, which is a distinct possibility, I'd start to temper some of these projections for Ryan Williams this year.
Left out Matt Forte somehow. He was drafted in '08 in the 2nd round to CHI to compete with Benson but Benson got in trouble with the law multiple times and was cut before the season started. Forte ended up the starter having to only beat out the "other" Adrian Peterson.
Oops, you're right. Somehow had him noted as a 3rd round pick. He definitely belongs on the list and is one of the guys that got the job for sure, but as you said, was drafted to be the main guy.
 
1. When was the last time Arizona had even an average blocking line?

2. The Kurt Warner days were full of passing and nary a run.

3. Last year's debacle consisted of D coordinators saying "well boys, we know they can't pass so throw 2 guys on Larry and lets just load the box".

This year they have at least an average QB in Kolb that will need a strong running game to take the pressure off him. I think for the first time in years, Arizona will have some semblance of a balanced "attack".

Beanie: 250 x 4.5 = 1125, 20 rec, 160 yrds, 8-10 Td's

Williams: 125 x 4.5 = 562 rush, 35 rec, 280 yrds, 3-5 Td's

 
Man Oh Man is Beannie a great value play this year or what?

I like Williams alot but they BOTH have had injury problems but Beannie has shown that he has the talent to be successful in th NFL, Williams hasn't yet.

Williams is only going ot have a month to get the playbook under his belt also. Beannie might come out of the gate strong.

1st 3 games Carolina, Washington and Seattle. Draft him late and sell him early is the Shark move.

 
Man Oh Man is Beannie a great value play this year or what?I like Williams alot but they BOTH have had injury problems but Beannie has shown that he has the talent to be successful in th NFL, Williams hasn't yet.Williams is only going ot have a month to get the playbook under his belt also. Beannie might come out of the gate strong.1st 3 games Carolina, Washington and Seattle. Draft him late and sell him early is the Shark move.
Man Oh Man if only you'd drop the extra "n" from Beanie's name. Every time you post on him.........like nails on a chalkboard.
 
FWIW...Coach Whisenhunt is declaring this Wells' job, which is kind of disappointing (I have Ryan Williams ranked as the main guy thinking he would have a chance to win the job in camp).http://rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5167/beanie-wells

Coach Ken Whisenhunt indicated that Beanie Wells is the clear starter in the Cardinals backfield following the Tim Hightower trade."To say this is a make or break season is a little premature," said Whiz. "But this is what he wanted. Clearly he's the guy." It doesn't get more clean-cut than that. As we suspected, Wells will take over as the lead back with rookie Ryan Williams as the passing-down specialist. As long as his knee is 100 percent, Wells absolutely has the talent to keep the job on early downs. He's a high-upside RB2 in standard scoring leagues following this news.
This doesn't mean Wells won't fail in his attempt, or that Williams won't be so much better that he forces the coaches' hands, but for now Wells appears ready to get an unimpeded shot at a feature back role.
 
1. When was the last time Arizona had even an average blocking line?
Do they have one yet?I have a hard time predicting much of an increase in running the ball this year. They haven't had more than 350 carries as a team since Edge was there. There were near the bottom of the league in defense (both scoring and yards) and traded away DRC. They may have to pass the ball to play catch up. I'd see about 325 carries.Beanie 200-900-8Williams 100-450-4
 
Let's not knock on the guy for projecting such a reasonable rushing total. It was just a year ago that the majority of people here predicted that Arizona was going to magically transition into a running team and Beanie was going to light it up, yet only 298 RB rushes were totaled for the entire team.

While I feel like Kolb's addition has to improve the team somewhat, I'm still not sold on Kolb. I think Orton would've been a better trade. Either way, I feel like they'll be able to do a little better than year's past. In the last 5 years the Cards have managed the following rushes/ypc numbers: 377/3.3, 366/3.7, 306/3.6, 328/4.3, 298/4.3.

I was very down on Beanie last year due to the situation. Their defense got worse and their passing attack went down the crapper. He never had a chance, but the hype train didn't falter. This year is a total reversal. Everyone is going ape**** over a second round pick (RB34) while Beanie is slipping to RB41. I really don't know much about Williams but I do know that Beanie looks like a beast when he's healthy. He wasn't enough of a beast to pull a Steven Jackson last year on that terrible squad, but he could have a really, really good year if Kolb is decent. Unfortunately, their defense is going to be atrocious, so they won't have the luxury of running the ball all day. Expect relatively low team totals once again.

Beanie 225 carries x 4.5 ypc = 1013 yds 8 TD, 30 rec x 9 ypr = 270 yds 1 TD

Williams 100 carries x 4.4 ypc = 440 yds 2 TD, 20 rec x 8 ypr = 160 yds 0 TD

 
FWIW...Coach Whisenhunt is declaring this Wells' job, which is kind of disappointing (I have Ryan Williams ranked as the main guy thinking he would have a chance to win the job in camp).http://rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5167/beanie-wells

Coach Ken Whisenhunt indicated that Beanie Wells is the clear starter in the Cardinals backfield following the Tim Hightower trade."To say this is a make or break season is a little premature," said Whiz. "But this is what he wanted. Clearly he's the guy." It doesn't get more clean-cut than that. As we suspected, Wells will take over as the lead back with rookie Ryan Williams as the passing-down specialist. As long as his knee is 100 percent, Wells absolutely has the talent to keep the job on early downs. He's a high-upside RB2 in standard scoring leagues following this news.
This doesn't mean Wells won't fail in his attempt, or that Williams won't be so much better that he forces the coaches' hands, but for now Wells appears ready to get an unimpeded shot at a feature back role.
I seem to be the only one on board with you on this assessment of Beanie. He will try and fail again, and for the last time you will all see that Beanie can't muster starter quality numbers. Ryan Williams is the play here, just need some patience. After this season, people are going to be saying, "Beanie who?", and "man, I sure got fooled on that one, should have targeted Williams".
 
FWIW...Coach Whisenhunt is declaring this Wells' job, which is kind of disappointing (I have Ryan Williams ranked as the main guy thinking he would have a chance to win the job in camp).

http://rotoworld.com...67/beanie-wells

Coach Ken Whisenhunt indicated that Beanie Wells is the clear starter in the Cardinals backfield following the Tim Hightower trade.

"To say this is a make or break season is a little premature," said Whiz. "But this is what he wanted. Clearly he's the guy." It doesn't get more clean-cut than that. As we suspected, Wells will take over as the lead back with rookie Ryan Williams as the passing-down specialist. As long as his knee is 100 percent, Wells absolutely has the talent to keep the job on early downs. He's a high-upside RB2 in standard scoring leagues following this news.
This doesn't mean Wells won't fail in his attempt, or that Williams won't be so much better that he forces the coaches' hands, but for now Wells appears ready to get an unimpeded shot at a feature back role.
I seem to be the only one on board with you on this assessment of Beanie. He will try and fail again, and for the last time you will all see that Beanie can't muster starter quality numbers. Ryan Williams is the play here, just need some patience. After this season, people are going to be saying, "Beanie who?", and "man, I sure got fooled on that one, should have targeted Williams".
I think the ryan williams hype train is a little over board imo. the guy had 1 great season in college. and it wasn't even last year. his blitz pick up skill right now is terrible. did you watch VTech's bowl game last year.Wiz isn't going to hand the reigns over to a rookie with subpar pass protection. beanie had a very solid ending to his rookie season. I think people are passing him off, because he hurt his knee in the preseason last year. for all the comments about his injuries, I don't think he really missed that much time as a rb at Ohio state. (maybe 3 games). certainly better numbers and more consistency then ryan williams and beanie played in a tougher conference for sure.

 
Man Oh Man is Beannie a great value play this year or what?I like Williams alot but they BOTH have had injury problems but Beannie has shown that he has the talent to be successful in th NFL, Williams hasn't yet.Williams is only going ot have a month to get the playbook under his belt also. Beannie might come out of the gate strong.1st 3 games Carolina, Washington and Seattle. Draft him late and sell him early is the Shark move.
Man Oh Man if only you'd drop the extra "n" from Beanie's name. Every time you post on him.........like nails on a chalkboard.
noted
 
If you have no confidence in your ability to evaluate the relative abilities of Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams, then you should just bet the odds and go with the 1st rounder.

Pretty average poker players can give you the odds on any given hand. The really good ones know the odds but still play the individual hand and the individual players involved.

It's the same thing here.

If Beanie holds off Williams, it will be because he showed more than Williams. It won't be because he was taken in the 1st and Williams was taken in the 2nd. The latter is just lazy analysis.

First rounders tend to be more athletically gifted than later round players. It works out that way over lots of picks over lots of years. But if that's really the best method of analysis for a particular situation then we could just compile rankings in about 5 minutes and set our leagues to auto-draft and play the odds.

 
FWIW...Coach Whisenhunt is declaring this Wells' job, which is kind of disappointing (I have Ryan Williams ranked as the main guy thinking he would have a chance to win the job in camp).http://rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5167/beanie-wells

Coach Ken Whisenhunt indicated that Beanie Wells is the clear starter in the Cardinals backfield following the Tim Hightower trade."To say this is a make or break season is a little premature," said Whiz. "But this is what he wanted. Clearly he's the guy." It doesn't get more clean-cut than that. As we suspected, Wells will take over as the lead back with rookie Ryan Williams as the passing-down specialist. As long as his knee is 100 percent, Wells absolutely has the talent to keep the job on early downs. He's a high-upside RB2 in standard scoring leagues following this news.
This doesn't mean Wells won't fail in his attempt, or that Williams won't be so much better that he forces the coaches' hands, but for now Wells appears ready to get an unimpeded shot at a feature back role.
Wonder if this news will push Williams to the second round. If so he's a nice gamble there. He's just not anywhere close to the sure thing people think he will be.Just viewed Beanie's game log and it made me want to retch, but no telling on this new situation. People will at least have to respect Kolbs arm and can't play exclusively against the run like last year.
 
I couldn't give away Beanie in my 16 team Dynasty league. He's signed at 10% of cap, which is/was pretty expensive for a back-up RB.

Since the release of Hightower and the recent news that he's Arizona's starting RB, the offers are starting to trickle in, even at his inflated salary.

Reminds me a bit of McFadden's status in 2010... couldn't give him away and now he's a 1st round pick in 2011.

And yeah, my league mates are probably reading this.

 
I couldn't give away Beanie in my 16 team Dynasty league. He's signed at 10% of cap, which is/was pretty expensive for a back-up RB.Since the release of Hightower and the recent news that he's Arizona's starting RB, the offers are starting to trickle in, even at his inflated salary.Reminds me a bit of McFadden's status in 2010... couldn't give him away and now he's a 1st round pick in 2011.And yeah, my league mates are probably reading this.
I'm sure this is happening everywhere and happens all the time with the new shiny toys. After the draft, buying Felix, Beanie, and Best was a good proposition.
 
If Beanie stays healthy, and he doesn't fumble, he will get the majority of carries all year. Wiz has shown time and time again that he does not like to start rookies, and he makes rookies earn their time. The first few games of the year will be big for Beanie - if he can string together a few good games, the job is his and Williams will be the backup all year. The Cards start off against the Panthers, Redskins, and Seahawks. That should be a relatively easy stretch of games to let Beanie secure himself as the guy.

Also, the Cards have never been a good rushing team. But this year they have upgraded the line, especially the TE position, so there is at least a little bit of optimism that the running game will be better this year.

In Beanie's rookie year he had 800/7, and Hightower added 600/8 - so that's 1400/15 rushing for the two main guys. A lot has changed (no more Warner and Boldin, but the line is better now) so this may not be a good indicator, but it does show that Beanie has some decent numbers in him if he is healthy.

I'm going to predict Beanie gets 1000/10 this year. Williams will be mostly a backup and third down guy.

 
I couldn't give away Beanie in my 16 team Dynasty league. He's signed at 10% of cap, which is/was pretty expensive for a back-up RB.Since the release of Hightower and the recent news that he's Arizona's starting RB, the offers are starting to trickle in, even at his inflated salary.Reminds me a bit of McFadden's status in 2010... couldn't give him away and now he's a 1st round pick in 2011.And yeah, my league mates are probably reading this.
I'm sure this is happening everywhere and happens all the time with the new shiny toys. After the draft, buying Felix, Beanie, and Best was a good proposition.
Every year a Mendenhall, McFadden, Charles, etc. unexpectedly explode on the scene from "nowhere" after being dead and buried by the fantasy community....sometimes it's the speed of the game, dedication/prerparation, injuries or opportunity that holds them back. Balancing the new guy on the block noise with the facts that come out from the press, coach, team can win you your league.
 
FWIW...Coach Whisenhunt is declaring this Wells' job, which is kind of disappointing (I have Ryan Williams ranked as the main guy thinking he would have a chance to win the job in camp).

http://rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5167/beanie-wells

Coach Ken Whisenhunt indicated that Beanie Wells is the clear starter in the Cardinals backfield following the Tim Hightower trade.

"To say this is a make or break season is a little premature," said Whiz. "But this is what he wanted. Clearly he's the guy." It doesn't get more clean-cut than that. As we suspected, Wells will take over as the lead back with rookie Ryan Williams as the passing-down specialist. As long as his knee is 100 percent, Wells absolutely has the talent to keep the job on early downs. He's a high-upside RB2 in standard scoring leagues following this news.
This doesn't mean Wells won't fail in his attempt, or that Williams won't be so much better that he forces the coaches' hands, but for now Wells appears ready to get an unimpeded shot at a feature back role.
I seem to be the only one on board with you on this assessment of Beanie. He will try and fail again, and for the last time you will all see that Beanie can't muster starter quality numbers. Ryan Williams is the play here, just need some patience. After this season, people are going to be saying, "Beanie who?", and "man, I sure got fooled on that one, should have targeted Williams".
You, more than most, should be more optimisitc...or at least practice what you preach. As a Raiders fan, there should be no better example than in your own backyard with McFadden. All we heard last year was "Bust..can't stay healthy, etc" from one side while the other side said "1st round draft pick...just needs to get healthy".This is setting up for Beanie very similar to Arian Foster last year. A guy that has shown flashes and appears to be the guy on a bad team. Then the team drafts a RB in the 2nd round and the entire world (save a few of us that follow the team/player closely) proclaims that "the team wouldn't draft a guy in the 2nd round unless he was going to be the man....they are tired of the incumbent". Then, the coach says the incumbent will get the first shot. Then the incumbent comes out with a bang and never looks back.

Wells and Fitz were hurt at the beginning of the year last year. They had NO Qb. Boldin was gone. Their defense was missing a few starters. Its ALL different this year and Beanie starts off with Carolina, Seattle, and Washington. I give him an EXCELLENT chance to be in the top 7-10 in rushing after the first month of the season this year.

 
FWIW...Coach Whisenhunt is declaring this Wells' job, which is kind of disappointing (I have Ryan Williams ranked as the main guy thinking he would have a chance to win the job in camp).

http://rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5167/beanie-wells

Coach Ken Whisenhunt indicated that Beanie Wells is the clear starter in the Cardinals backfield following the Tim Hightower trade.

"To say this is a make or break season is a little premature," said Whiz. "But this is what he wanted. Clearly he's the guy." It doesn't get more clean-cut than that. As we suspected, Wells will take over as the lead back with rookie Ryan Williams as the passing-down specialist. As long as his knee is 100 percent, Wells absolutely has the talent to keep the job on early downs. He's a high-upside RB2 in standard scoring leagues following this news.
This doesn't mean Wells won't fail in his attempt, or that Williams won't be so much better that he forces the coaches' hands, but for now Wells appears ready to get an unimpeded shot at a feature back role.
I seem to be the only one on board with you on this assessment of Beanie. He will try and fail again, and for the last time you will all see that Beanie can't muster starter quality numbers. Ryan Williams is the play here, just need some patience. After this season, people are going to be saying, "Beanie who?", and "man, I sure got fooled on that one, should have targeted Williams".
You, more than most, should be more optimisitc...or at least practice what you preach. As a Raiders fan, there should be no better example than in your own backyard with McFadden. All we heard last year was "Bust..can't stay healthy, etc" from one side while the other side said "1st round draft pick...just needs to get healthy".This is setting up for Beanie very similar to Arian Foster last year. A guy that has shown flashes and appears to be the guy on a bad team. Then the team drafts a RB in the 2nd round and the entire world (save a few of us that follow the team/player closely) proclaims that "the team wouldn't draft a guy in the 2nd round unless he was going to be the man....they are tired of the incumbent". Then, the coach says the incumbent will get the first shot. Then the incumbent comes out with a bang and never looks back.

Wells and Fitz were hurt at the beginning of the year last year. They had NO Qb. Boldin was gone. Their defense was missing a few starters. Its ALL different this year and Beanie starts off with Carolina, Seattle, and Washington. I give him an EXCELLENT chance to be in the top 7-10 in rushing after the first month of the season this year.
As a Beanie owner in two leagues, and a guy who thinks he's a little undervalued right now in general, I hope you are right and I agree with some of your points. However, I think the Foster comparison is a big stretch.First of all, you mention a "bad team", but Houston had consistently shown that the system could produce big numbers for the RB - even a decidedly mediocre one (Slaton). Arizona has been the opposite for the most part. Not that much production out of the Arizona backs. That can change, and it wasn't really horrible last year, but it's been a long time since the Arizona back has been a guy to look for.

Secondly, Foster's primary competition was completely removed from the equation before the season even started. I don't think you can count on that in Arizona, and it obviously had a huge effect on the dynamic of the situation.

 
1. When was the last time Arizona had even an average blocking line?
Do they have one yet?I have a hard time predicting much of an increase in running the ball this year. They haven't had more than 350 carries as a team since Edge was there. There were near the bottom of the league in defense (both scoring and yards) and traded away DRC. They may have to pass the ball to play catch up. I'd see about 325 carries.Beanie 200-900-8Williams 100-450-4
I don't know if they have one...but that wasn't my point either.When EVERYONE knows you CAN'T pass...they also assume you WILL run. My point was simply that having a reasonable threat to pass will open up more running lanes because defenses will have to respect that pass more. If the passing game improves, and I believe it has to, then we will see more drives sustained, which will lead to more running opportunity rather that last year's debacle of "Receive kickoff, 4 yard gain, incomplete pass, incomplete pass, punt."+ Kolb - Derek Anderson + Heap - Hightower + Ryan Williams = more firepower/potential on the offensive side of the ball.I just can't see Arizona being worse than they were last year.
 
As a Williams dynasty owner, I'm happy about the Hightower trade, but I never expected Williams to be named the starter or lead back right out of the gate; particularly given the shortened training camp period etc. Wells is a talented player and knows the system. It makes sense for him to be given the lead back gig.

For Williams, I guess I'd be looking/hoping for one of these two things to happen (preferably #2):

1) Wells plays well and remains the starter, but Williams is so impressive right out of the gate that he carves out a significant role as a rookie (and then even more next year).

2) Wells struggles/fumbles more than the coaches can tolerate or he has trouble staying healthy. This would give Williams a much bigger role in his rookie year and give him the chance to lock in the feature back role going forward.

For this season, I'm expecting Wells to maintain the lead role for most or all of the year (odds are in his favor, imo).

Wells: 188/813/7 rushing and 15/120/0 receiving

Williams: 122/512/4 rushing and 35/260/1 receiving

 
Dan Bickley who does AM radio and writes for the public lamented at length during his recent podcast that Beanie doesn't "seem to have it" on his recent podcast. Bickley is admitted blowhard, but he has been up at camp and has seem them both every day.From what I've heard in camp, they've both had their moments. Wells is better "on paper" (see the 1st round talent vs. 2nd round talent notion upthread) in the sense that he has better speed and probably better power. The problem though is that he seems to lack vision and spends a lot of time running straight into tacklers. Williams on the other hand isn't nearly as fast. He's powerful but not as powerful as Beanie. What he does have is amazing vision and fantastic wiggle. He can really cut on a dime.Cards had an Evening practice last night open to the public. Some cardinal message board comments on Beanie vs. Wells:

The first play of ones on ones was a Kolb under throw of Fitz. Followed by a handoff to Beanie who had a hole seemed to explode through it and then promptly tripped over his own feet for a gain of two yards. He wasn't touched. Next was a handoff to Beanie on a sweep. Beanie looked really really fast to me tonight. Faster than I remember at any of the other two camps I have seen him play. He rounded the corner with ease and was pushed out by a CB after about a 12 yard gain. Next play was a Kolscreen pass to Beanie in traffic which was good for no gain. While Ryan Williams was running during 11 on 11 it is really easy to see when you are up close what people like about the kid. He has a stout powerful frame and is shifty as can be. He easily can stop and turn on a dime. He has an effortless spin move and incredible footwork. But he is definitely nowhere near as fast as beanie. Two totally different styles and they should compliment each other well IMO.Came away really impressed with #34 (Ryan Williams is #34) #80 #21 #89
 
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I see several posts alluding to Wells' first round pedigree. He was drafted 31st overall - near the bottom of the first. Williams was drafted 38 - near the top of the 2nd round. We're talking seven picks apart - the round is what seems to be focused upon too much.

As others have mentioned, Wells' ability to keep the job has virtually nothing to do with where he was drafted - he probably makes not much more than Williams does. Wells is the incumbent, so team brass is giving him a shot to show his stuff. Whether he can hold off a promising looking rookie in Williams, of course, remains to be seen.

 
It would seem that vision and cutting ability are more important than straight line speed. I don't see Beanie running many go-routes.

 
It would seem that vision and cutting ability are more important than straight line speed. I don't see Beanie running many go-routes.
Took Beanie at 5.9 tonight. Had my sights on Ryan Williams in a later round and he went the pick before me.Here's to hoping Beanie can produce. I'm a little worried about the situation as he's my RB2 right now. I thought he looked alright in preseason up until the point that he got stuffed at the goal line 7 times. Ryan Williams hasn't really showed me anything special either, so here's to hoping they work him in slowly.
 
I know you didn't ask me, but the Cardinals control Beanie through 2013. In today's NFL RBBC is the norm. I'd expect them to keep and utilize both players. Why not keep two young and talented RBs on your roster? They have different skillsets that will compliment eachother. Beanie the faster/downhill/one-cut runner with a bit more power. Williams with better elusiveness, vision, and wiggle.

I don't see either player supplanting the other to full time backup duty.

 

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