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DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart, RBs, Carolina Panthers (2 Viewers)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart, RBs, Carolina Panthers

Player Page Link: DeAngelo Williams Player Page

Player Page Link: Jonathan Stewart Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
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Wow...nothing to say about what's arguably the toughest fantasy situation to handicap this year?

Stewart and Williams both had a chance to be preseason Top 20 back, if Williams had taken the money and ran elsewhere, yet instead he took a MONSTER deal to stay in Carolina. It's hard to imagine Jonathan Stewart could be happy about that, and that's to say nothing of rookie QB Cam Newton. Take a look at what Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick and Vince Young did in their first years as starters, and then think about what Newton's mobility it going to mean to DeAngelo and Stewart's scoring chances. If there weren't enough fantasy point for two RBs, how will the team deal with three running threats?

Are you just passing on these guys at their current ADPs? Or are you favoring on over the other, even with the uncertainty?

 
You'd think that DeAngelo was given some type of assurance that he'd remain the bell-cow back in this rotation. I'm sure the money was the main motivating factor in him staying in Carolina but at the same time the Panters wouldn't shell out that kind of money unless they expected him to at least maintain a big share of the carries in 2011. I'm of the opinion that the Carolina run game last season was a disappointment because of the absence of Jeff Otah and not so much an absence of a competent passing game. The Panthers as a team haven't had much of a passing game since they reached the Super Bowl years back.

I'm expecting something similar to his 2009 stat line if he can stay healthy. If I had to project his stats I'd go with the following:

230 carries, 1100 yards rushing, 25 receptions, 205 yards receiving, 10 total TD's

I won't bother trying to project Stewart's stats only because they are entirely dependent on DeAngelo staying healthy.

 
'Jason Wood said:
Stewart and Williams both had a chance to be preseason Top 20 back, if Williams had taken the money and ran elsewhere, yet instead he took a MONSTER deal to stay in Carolina. It's hard to imagine Jonathan Stewart could be happy about that
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I think Stewart is very happy about Williams staying. Williams and Stewart love playing together, and they are also best friends. Stewart commented prior to DeAngelo being signed that he wanted the Panthers to keep Williams and keep the duo going. He said "if it's not broke, why fix it?" They now have included Goodson and have made themselves a trio. Stewart said using three great backs is good on "his body, DeAngelo's body, and Goody's body, and it prolongs their future." He also recently commented on how this is the first training camp he has been totally healthy.
 
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I hate the Stewart Situation with a passion. I've held him for 3 years waiting for The Chance. Due to DW's FA and resultant resigning, it comes and goes. What a waste.

 
'Jason Wood said:
Wow...nothing to say about what's arguably the toughest fantasy situation to handicap this year?Stewart and Williams both had a chance to be preseason Top 20 back, if Williams had taken the money and ran elsewhere, yet instead he took a MONSTER deal to stay in Carolina. It's hard to imagine Jonathan Stewart could be happy about that, and that's to say nothing of rookie QB Cam Newton. Take a look at what Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick and Vince Young did in their first years as starters, and then think about what Newton's mobility it going to mean to DeAngelo and Stewart's scoring chances. If there weren't enough fantasy point for two RBs, how will the team deal with three running threats?Are you just passing on these guys at their current ADPs? Or are you favoring on over the other, even with the uncertainty?
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I think Cam Newton is a net positive for Williams and Stewart. The loss of a handful of touchdowns should be more than offset by the way he opens up defenses. RBs who play with mobile QBs tend to see a noticeable boost in YPC.
 
Definitely agree about Cam being good for the running game. I'm high on the trio (including MG) this year, but I dont think I can get behind any of them individually enough to draft them. It really depends though, it seems like a ton of people have these guys on their do not touch lists. If thats the case, some leagues could see these guys in a free-fall to the point where they're worth it.

 
The negative thing about having 2 backs is they cut into each others production. The positive thing is if one of them goes down due to injury you are left with a very good rb1. DeAngelo does have a history of getting dinged up (as well does Stewart). I also agree last years horrible run numbers might have had alot to do with Otah and an horrible passing attack. The coaching staff and the franchise didnt give them a chance starting week 1.

This year I think things might be alittle different and they are playing a last place schedule.

I do agree DeWilly is the main man here and will get atleast 65% of the work while happy.

Predictions:

DeWilly 230 carries 1100 yards 9 td's 40 catches 360 yards 1 td

Stewart 150 carries 675 yards 6 tds 8 catches 75 yards 0 tds

 
Carolina has averaged 476 carries per year over the last 4 years, with a high of 525 in 2009 and a low of 428 last year. I think (assuming Cam is the starter for majority of the season) that they stand a solid chance of approaching a new high carry total, if not eclipsing it. Let's play it safe though and call it 500. They've averaged 4.5 ypc over the last 4 years, with a high of 4.8 reached in 2008 and 2009, last years 4.0 (health issues with line, Otah, and RBs, DWill/Stewart) the low. 2007 hit right at 4.5.

So 500 carries x 4.5 ypc = 2250 yards (the Panthers were 2400+ in both 08 and 09, so this is by no means an outlier number)

Now you have to split that up between 3 RBs and a running QB, my best guesses, based on Dwill and Stewart both missing some time, Stewart missing more as has been his career trend.

Dwill 245-1100-10

Stewart 140-630-6

Cam 80-400-8

Woodson 35-120-1

I know the 25 rushing TDs are significantly more than their 4 year average (15.5) but I attribute that to a QB that loves to run in the red zone. It's also 5 less than they ran for in 2008 when Dwill went nuts. Not even going to attempt to predict the passing game numbers for these backs until I see how Cam looks in the preseason with regards to checkdowns and short range accuracy/ability to throw a catchable ball leading the RB in space.

 
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'SSOG said:
I think Cam Newton is a net positive for Williams and Stewart. The loss of a handful of touchdowns should be more than offset by the way he opens up defenses. RBs who play with mobile QBs tend to see a noticeable boost in YPC.
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On the bolded, do you have evidence? Questions on this:1. What if you counted only mobile QBs who aren't good passers? For example, I don't think comparing Newton to Steve Young would be appropriate.

2. Are you counting RBs who have substantial sample sizes in terms of carries, like 150+ carries?

 
One of the tougher situations to project for...my ranges on both players are some of the highest at the RB position.

 
'LHUCKS said:
One of the tougher situations to project for...my ranges on both players are some of the highest at the RB position.
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So what you got projected for both of em. I think DeAngello bounces back in a big way. 1150 RYDS, 10 TDS, 37 Recptions, 340 Yards Get back at me for J-Stew's projection another time haha. He's a tough one to rank and project.
 
'countingcrow said:
You'd think that DeAngelo was given some type of assurance that he'd remain the bell-cow back in this rotation. I'm sure the money was the main motivating factor in him staying in Carolina but at the same time the Panters wouldn't shell out that kind of money unless they expected him to at least maintain a big share of the carries in 2011.
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Keep in mind that Carolina had to spend a lot of money to get to the minimum. Spending lots of money on Williams may have just been a function of that.
 
'breadtree said:
'countingcrow said:
You'd think that DeAngelo was given some type of assurance that he'd remain the bell-cow back in this rotation. I'm sure the money was the main motivating factor in him staying in Carolina but at the same time the Panters wouldn't shell out that kind of money unless they expected him to at least maintain a big share of the carries in 2011.
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Keep in mind that Carolina had to spend a lot of money to get to the minimum. Spending lots of money on Williams may have just been a function of that.
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It's my understanding, through a few news outlets, that teams aren't required to meet that salary minimum until the 2013 season.Can anyone here confirm this?If I'm correct then your reasoning for Carolina throwing that money at DeAngelo is off track.
 
'Just Win Baby said:
'SSOG said:
I think Cam Newton is a net positive for Williams and Stewart. The loss of a handful of touchdowns should be more than offset by the way he opens up defenses. RBs who play with mobile QBs tend to see a noticeable boost in YPC.
Click to expand...
On the bolded, do you have evidence? Questions on this:1. What if you counted only mobile QBs who aren't good passers? For example, I don't think comparing Newton to Steve Young would be appropriate.

2. Are you counting RBs who have substantial sample sizes in terms of carries, like 150+ carries?
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The most recent example I can think of is LeSean McCoy last year.11 games Vick played most of the game: 136 carries for 812 yards (6.0) and 6 TDs, prorated 16 game numbers of 198 carries for 1181 yards and 9 TD

4 games Vick didn't play or only played briefly: 71 carries for 268 yards (3.8) and 1 Td, prorated 16 game numbers of 284 carries for 1072 yards and 4 TD

McCoy obviously became more productive on a per touch basis with Vick in the line up, although being the focal point of the offense with Kolb in there when the defense was keying on him could have been just as big of an issue.

ETA: For those in PPR leagues, McCoy's value was much better WITH Kolb in the game rather than Vick, prorated numbers of 108 catches vs 74. Food for thought.

ETA: F me, missed the biggest example. Chris Johnson's splits with and without Vince Young. Borderline ridiculous dichotomy there.

 
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'Just Win Baby said:
'SSOG said:
I think Cam Newton is a net positive for Williams and Stewart. The loss of a handful of touchdowns should be more than offset by the way he opens up defenses. RBs who play with mobile QBs tend to see a noticeable boost in YPC.
Click to expand...
On the bolded, do you have evidence? Questions on this:1. What if you counted only mobile QBs who aren't good passers? For example, I don't think comparing Newton to Steve Young would be appropriate.

2. Are you counting RBs who have substantial sample sizes in terms of carries, like 150+ carries?
Click to expand...
It's one of those things in my "I saw something about this once upon a time and filed it away for future reference" mental folder. No idea where I saw it, can't really remember the methodology, it's just one of those random tidbits that has stuck with me for a while. It's definitely been reinforced in recent years (as drater mentioned, McCoy and Johnson both have ridiculous splits). Maybe I'll dig into it more and crunch some actual numbers.
 
'SSOG said:
'Just Win Baby said:
'SSOG said:
I think Cam Newton is a net positive for Williams and Stewart. The loss of a handful of touchdowns should be more than offset by the way he opens up defenses. RBs who play with mobile QBs tend to see a noticeable boost in YPC.
Click to expand...
On the bolded, do you have evidence? Questions on this:1. What if you counted only mobile QBs who aren't good passers? For example, I don't think comparing Newton to Steve Young would be appropriate.

2. Are you counting RBs who have substantial sample sizes in terms of carries, like 150+ carries?
Click to expand...
It's one of those things in my "I saw something about this once upon a time and filed it away for future reference" mental folder. No idea where I saw it, can't really remember the methodology, it's just one of those random tidbits that has stuck with me for a while. It's definitely been reinforced in recent years (as drater mentioned, McCoy and Johnson both have ridiculous splits). Maybe I'll dig into it more and crunch some actual numbers.
Click to expand...
Yes, those are two good examples. Just curious if there is enough there to suggest that this is predictive.
 
'meanjoegreen said:
'Jason Wood said:
Stewart and Williams both had a chance to be preseason Top 20 back, if Williams had taken the money and ran elsewhere, yet instead he took a MONSTER deal to stay in Carolina. It's hard to imagine Jonathan Stewart could be happy about that
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I think Stewart is very happy about Williams staying. Williams and Stewart love playing together, and they are also best friends. Stewart commented prior to DeAngelo being signed that he wanted the Panthers to keep Williams and keep the duo going. He said "if it's not broke, why fix it?" They now have included Woodson and have made themselves a trio. Stewart said using three great backs is good on "his body, DeAngelo's body, and Woody's body, and it prolongs their future." He also recently commented on how this is the first training camp he has been totally healthy.
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u mean goodson right?
 
'Just Win Baby said:
Yes, those are two good examples. Just curious if there is enough there to suggest that this is predictive.
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I took a quick look back at instances where a QB got hurt and an RB wound up playing at least 5 games with him and 5 games without him.2003 Michael Vick:Duckett = 3.76 with Vick, 4.22 without (note: Dunn got injured right when Vick returned, so this also corresponded with a role change)2006 Donovan McNabb:Westbrook = 5.07 with McNabb, 5.07 without McNabb2002 Donovan McNabb:Staley = 4.32 with McNabb, 3.11 without McNabb1995 Steve Young:Derek Loville = 3.47 ypc with Young, 3.0 ypc without Young2002 Kordell Stewart:Amos Zeroeue (there's a name I didn't think I'd ever type again) = 4.79 with Stewart, 3.72 without StewartJerome Bettis = 3.93 with Stewart, 3.27 without StewartCan you think of any other mobile QBs you want me to check out?
 
'SSOG said:
'Just Win Baby said:
Yes, those are two good examples. Just curious if there is enough there to suggest that this is predictive.
Click to expand...
I took a quick look back at instances where a QB got hurt and an RB wound up playing at least 5 games with him and 5 games without him.2003 Michael Vick:Duckett = 3.76 with Vick, 4.22 without (note: Dunn got injured right when Vick returned, so this also corresponded with a role change)2006 Donovan McNabb:Westbrook = 5.07 with McNabb, 5.07 without McNabb2002 Donovan McNabb:Staley = 4.32 with McNabb, 3.11 without McNabb1995 Steve Young:Derek Loville = 3.47 ypc with Young, 3.0 ypc without Young2002 Kordell Stewart:Amos Zeroeue (there's a name I didn't think I'd ever type again) = 4.79 with Stewart, 3.72 without StewartJerome Bettis = 3.93 with Stewart, 3.27 without StewartCan you think of any other mobile QBs you want me to check out?
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I can't think of other examples off the top of my head. For many of the examples cited, I wonder if it is just a #1 vs. #2 QB effect we are talking about here. I mean, for example, would Peyton Manning's RBs have a higher upcoming average with him or without him? I would think with him, due to the stronger passing game threat... but he is as immobile ad it gets.
 
'Hipple said:
'meanjoegreen said:
'Jason Wood said:
Stewart and Williams both had a chance to be preseason Top 20 back, if Williams had taken the money and ran elsewhere, yet instead he took a MONSTER deal to stay in Carolina. It's hard to imagine Jonathan Stewart could be happy about that
Click to expand...
I think Stewart is very happy about Williams staying. Williams and Stewart love playing together, and they are also best friends. Stewart commented prior to DeAngelo being signed that he wanted the Panthers to keep Williams and keep the duo going. He said "if it's not broke, why fix it?" They now have included Woodson and have made themselves a trio. Stewart said using three great backs is good on "his body, DeAngelo's body, and Woody's body, and it prolongs their future." He also recently commented on how this is the first training camp he has been totally healthy.
Click to expand...
u mean goodson right?
Click to expand...
Right
 
'SSOG said:
'Just Win Baby said:
Yes, those are two good examples. Just curious if there is enough there to suggest that this is predictive.
Click to expand...
I took a quick look back at instances where a QB got hurt and an RB wound up playing at least 5 games with him and 5 games without him.2003 Michael Vick:Duckett = 3.76 with Vick, 4.22 without (note: Dunn got injured right when Vick returned, so this also corresponded with a role change)2006 Donovan McNabb:Westbrook = 5.07 with McNabb, 5.07 without McNabb2002 Donovan McNabb:Staley = 4.32 with McNabb, 3.11 without McNabb1995 Steve Young:Derek Loville = 3.47 ypc with Young, 3.0 ypc without Young2002 Kordell Stewart:Amos Zeroeue (there's a name I didn't think I'd ever type again) = 4.79 with Stewart, 3.72 without StewartJerome Bettis = 3.93 with Stewart, 3.27 without StewartCan you think of any other mobile QBs you want me to check out?
Click to expand...
A couple of notes:http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=27http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=368
 
'Just Win Baby said:
I can't think of other examples off the top of my head. For many of the examples cited, I wonder if it is just a #1 vs. #2 QB effect we are talking about here. I mean, for example, would Peyton Manning's RBs have a higher upcoming average with him or without him? I would think with him, due to the stronger passing game threat... but he is as immobile ad it gets.
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That's why I included 2002 Kordell Stewart. He was the 1st string starter, but it's generally agreed that the 2nd stringer was a better QB (that was the season Tommy Maddox played well enough to lock down the starting job the following season). Still, there's really not a whole lot of evidence on the phenomenon one way or another. And we won't even be able to look back at Carolina after the season to see what kind of an impact Cam Newton had, because Newton's impact will almost certainly be overshadowed by major improvements on the offensive line.
 
DeAngelo Williams IMO is the single biggest upper tier value play in FF this year.

What you have to take into account is that 2010 was an abortion of a season for the Panthers.

1) Richardson had made clear he was not making any pre-labor confrontation investment in the team which included allowing the best defensive player in franchise history to walk.

2) This included allowing a long tenured HC to essentially finish out a lame duck season with everybody having full knowledge as early as training camp that he had one foot out the door.

3) Which probably led to a poorly thought out plan at QB which was relying on Matt Moore to potentially be a bridge to Jimmy Clausen. Both were disasters.

4) ...and when you throw in injuries on both sides of the ball (Otah, Williams, Davis), you get a franchise in full 'going thru the motions' mode.

Williams was lost after 6 games, and while the Panthers season was pretty much down the toilet by that point, his absense seemed to tbe the final nail of the Panthers coffin.

But turn to 2011...

1) Richardson is spending like a drunken sailor.

2) New coaching staff in place which always acts as an energy boost to a franchise.

3) a #1 overall pick spent on a QB who perhaps had the most exceptional season ever by a college QB, and certainly by one who had no national presence coming into the season whatsoever

4) Willams & Otah back

While I think there still remains a good deal of work to be done to upgrade the talent base here to be playoff caliber, this is a re-invigorated franchise. And if you are allowed to throw away a season, then if we look at Williams previous 2 seasons, we see an RB who averaged.

18.6 touches/game

5.38 YPC

103.6 YFS/game

.9 TD's/game

Now I do recognize that one of these seasons I'm referring to is 2008. But I think people are really forgetting just HOW good Williams is and has been. ON FF Calculator, his ADP is RB18 behind players like LeGerrette Blount, Shonn Greene & Ryan Matthews. To me...if DeAngelo was worthy of a 2nd round pick in 2010 when the writing was on the wall for a pretty dismal season for the Panthers, he's worth that now, but you can get him in Round 4.

Even with Fox not there anymore, a time share arrangement with Stewart/Goodson shouldn't scare anyone away because:

1) Williams does not require a signficant amount of touches to be productive and he's been prolific while co-existing with Stewary before

2) The Panthers just signed him to a ridiculous contract even if he was going to be a 400 touch bell-cow. In terms of his floor, 18.6 touches/game is it. I could see this going up to 20-21 range.

So count me as someone who believes that DeAngelo is probably the best PROVEN buy-low candidate at any position in FF this season.

Prediction: 265 carries, 1269 Rushing Yards 9 TD's; 32 Receptions 228 Receiving Yards 1 TD.

 
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Interesting read. I struggle with drafting DeAngelo - ironically, because I am such a huge fan. I always get the feeling like I'm looking through rose-colored glasses. Once again, I am getting that feeling.

 
'cheese said:
Definitely agree about Cam being good for the running game. I'm high on the trio (including MG) this year, but I dont think I can get behind any of them individually enough to draft them. It really depends though, it seems like a ton of people have these guys on their do not touch lists. If thats the case, some leagues could see these guys in a free-fall to the point where they're worth it.
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DeAngelo is criminally undervalued. A 4th round pick is gravy for a guy as talented as Williams that should approach the high 200s in touches. His re-signing in Carolina has also put Stewarts ADP into a tailspin. The problem is he's really only a bye week or injury fill in right now. It's tough to count on him week in and week out as long as DeAngelo is healthy, but Stewart is worthy of a pick where he's going as well.
 
Chris Harris of ESPN's fantasy department pointed out on Friday's podcast that 2011 will be the last season of Jonathan Stewart's rookie contract. He said that he doesn't expect that Stewart will remain in Carolina past this season. He said that Carolina made it's choice among the two backs when the team re-signed DeAngelo. Another thing that he pointed out that a lot of people are overlooking is the fact that this is no longer a John Fox led team. There are no guarantees that we will see as close a split as we have the last few seasons between Williams and Stewart. He thinks that, barring injury, DeAngelo is one of the biggest ADP steals in the early going.

 
'countingcrow said:
Chris Harris of ESPN's fantasy department pointed out on Friday's podcast that 2011 will be the last season of Jonathan Stewart's rookie contract. He said that he doesn't expect that Stewart will remain in Carolina past this season. He said that Carolina made it's choice among the two backs when the team re-signed DeAngelo. Another thing that he pointed out that a lot of people are overlooking is the fact that this is no longer a John Fox led team. There are no guarantees that we will see as close a split as we have the last few seasons between Williams and Stewart. He thinks that, barring injury, DeAngelo is one of the biggest ADP steals in the early going.
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Rivera has said that he likes using a multiple back system. DeAngelo will be the lead, but Stewart will get carries too, and Goodson the least amount. Chris Harris needs to do his homework. Stewart's contract goes through 2012. He will be an unrestricted free agent in 2013.
 
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'countingcrow said:
Chris Harris of ESPN's fantasy department pointed out on Friday's podcast that 2011 will be the last season of Jonathan Stewart's rookie contract. He said that he doesn't expect that Stewart will remain in Carolina past this season. He said that Carolina made it's choice among the two backs when the team re-signed DeAngelo. Another thing that he pointed out that a lot of people are overlooking is the fact that this is no longer a John Fox led team. There are no guarantees that we will see as close a split as we have the last few seasons between Williams and Stewart. He thinks that, barring injury, DeAngelo is one of the biggest ADP steals in the early going.
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I would agree with all of this other than the fact Stewart is signed through 2012. He might be gone after this season, but it won't be because his contract expired. Stewart will still see a lot of touches, but Carolina can't commit that kind of money to DeAngelo without expecting to give him the ball a ton. Williams has ended his last two seasons on IR, so he's definitely an injury risk, but if he's healthy all season he could be the kind of player that's on most championship fantasy teams.
 
Panthers coach Ron Rivera revealed Wednesday that Jonathan Stewart is now sitting out practices after aggravating his Achilles' tendon.

Stewart had surgery on the same Achilles' last offseason. It didn't cost him any games, but foot injuries followed Stewart into the league from Oregon and haven't let go. It's unclear when he'll be allowed to resume practicing.

 
'TheDirtyWord said:
DeAngelo Williams IMO is the single biggest upper tier value play in FF this year.

What you have to take into account is that 2010 was an abortion of a season for the Panthers.

1) Richardson had made clear he was not making any pre-labor confrontation investment in the team which included allowing the best defensive player in franchise history to walk.

2) This included allowing a long tenured HC to essentially finish out a lame duck season with everybody having full knowledge as early as training camp that he had one foot out the door.

3) Which probably led to a poorly thought out plan at QB which was relying on Matt Moore to potentially be a bridge to Jimmy Clausen. Both were disasters.

4) ...and when you throw in injuries on both sides of the ball (Otah, Williams, Davis), you get a franchise in full 'going thru the motions' mode.

Williams was lost after 6 games, and while the Panthers season was pretty much down the toilet by that point, his absense seemed to tbe the final nail of the Panthers coffin.

But turn to 2011...

1) Richardson is spending like a drunken sailor.

2) New coaching staff in place which always acts as an energy boost to a franchise.

3) a #1 overall pick spent on a QB who perhaps had the most exceptional season ever by a college QB, and certainly by one who had no national presence coming into the season whatsoever

4) Willams & Otah back

While I think there still remains a good deal of work to be done to upgrade the talent base here to be playoff caliber, this is a re-invigorated franchise. And if you are allowed to throw away a season, then if we look at Williams previous 2 seasons, we see an RB who averaged.

18.6 touches/game

5.38 YPC

103.6 YFS/game

.9 TD's/game

Now I do recognize that one of these seasons I'm referring to is 2008. But I think people are really forgetting just HOW good Williams is and has been. ON FF Calculator, his ADP is RB18 behind players like LeGerrette Blount, Shonn Greene & Ryan Matthews. To me...if DeAngelo was worthy of a 2nd round pick in 2010 when the writing was on the wall for a pretty dismal season for the Panthers, he's worth that now, but you can get him in Round 4.

Even with Fox not there anymore, a time share arrangement with Stewart/Goodson shouldn't scare anyone away because:

1) Williams does not require a signficant amount of touches to be productive and he's been prolific while co-existing with Stewary before

2) The Panthers just signed him to a ridiculous contract even if he was going to be a 400 touch bell-cow. In terms of his floor, 18.6 touches/game is it. I could see this going up to 20-21 range.

So count me as someone who believes that DeAngelo is probably the best PROVEN buy-low candidate at any position in FF this season.

Prediction: 265 carries, 1269 Rushing Yards 9 TD's; 32 Receptions 228 Receiving Yards 1 TD.
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I have the same gut feeling this season. I feel strange because not allot of people are getting on the D-Will train. I'm glad somebody is with me that he is one of the biggest buy lows this season. Good post sir.

 
I'm a big fan of DeAngelo, so I tend to wear rose-colored glasses when it comes to his analysis. That said, I just spent some time looking at Chudzinski's background (been meaning to do this for a while now). Many might already know this, and it may not have much bearing, but here's the history of RBs he's been around:

2004 Browns - Suggs/Green (RBBC)

2005 Chargers - LT

2006 Chargers - LT

2007 Browns - Jamal Lewis

2008 Browns - Jamal Lewis

2009 Chargers - LT

2010 Chargers - Mathews intended to be bell cow, Tolbert steps in

With the exception of 2004, he's been involved in nothing but bell cow systems. Now, he's mostly been the TE coach (great news for Olsen owners), but I would imagine he is taking what he's learned from the systems he has been a part of.

 
'-jb- said:
I'm a big fan of DeAngelo, so I tend to wear rose-colored glasses when it comes to his analysis. That said, I just spent some time looking at Chudzinski's background (been meaning to do this for a while now). Many might already know this, and it may not have much bearing, but here's the history of RBs he's been around:2004 Browns - Suggs/Green (RBBC)2005 Chargers - LT2006 Chargers - LT2007 Browns - Jamal Lewis2008 Browns - Jamal Lewis2009 Chargers - LT2010 Chargers - Mathews intended to be bell cow, Tolbert steps inWith the exception of 2004, he's been involved in nothing but bell cow systems. Now, he's mostly been the TE coach (great news for Olsen owners), but I would imagine he is taking what he's learned from the systems he has been a part of.
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He also had the best running back in the past decade in Tomlinson three of those years. Browns with Suggs/Green and then Lewis didn't leave him any real choice. He'll also be breaking in a rookie out of a college style offense. I expect a lot of runs and try and control the clock. I think everyone is going to get more than enough carries.
 
I've always been a DeAngelo fan. I drafted him in round 5 in a recent draft and he was my 1st RB taken. Barring injury, I think he's a lock for top 10 this season. Dwill is one of the top 4 most talented RBs in the league right now.

 
Williams: 256 carries 1150 yards 7 TDs 30 receptions 250 yards 1 TD

Stewart: 160 carries 800 yards 5 TDs 20 receptions 200 yards 1 TD

 
'Mr Rodgers neighborhood said:
'-jb- said:
I'm a big fan of DeAngelo, so I tend to wear rose-colored glasses when it comes to his analysis. That said, I just spent some time looking at Chudzinski's background (been meaning to do this for a while now). Many might already know this, and it may not have much bearing, but here's the history of RBs he's been around:2004 Browns - Suggs/Green (RBBC)2005 Chargers - LT2006 Chargers - LT2007 Browns - Jamal Lewis2008 Browns - Jamal Lewis2009 Chargers - LT2010 Chargers - Mathews intended to be bell cow, Tolbert steps inWith the exception of 2004, he's been involved in nothing but bell cow systems. Now, he's mostly been the TE coach (great news for Olsen owners), but I would imagine he is taking what he's learned from the systems he has been a part of.
Click to expand...
He also had the best running back in the past decade in Tomlinson three of those years. Browns with Suggs/Green and then Lewis didn't leave him any real choice. He'll also be breaking in a rookie out of a college style offense. I expect a lot of runs and try and control the clock. I think everyone is going to get more than enough carries.
Click to expand...
2008 Browns he should have been playing Harrison. Lewis had a foot injury going into the season and was cruddy all year.
 
I like Deangelo to have a bounce back year, as the talent is definitely there and Stewart has never been a hinderance before to a healthy Deangelo, but his SOS does concern me. I know there is much change-over from year to year in the NFL, and the past doesn't predict the future, but their schedule is ranked #1 hardest on NFL.com based on last year's W-L. Throw out the week 17 game against the Saints (whew) as most folks only play FF through week 16, and they play some pretty high scoring teams - the Saints once, the Falcons twice, the up and coming Buccaneers twice, Colts once, Packers once, the up and coming Lions once, and the Texans once. Those teams can really pile on the points. I really hope their defense can hold up, or otherwise they could be abandoning the run a lot as they fall behind. Who would play mostly in catch up mode, Deangelo or Goodson, or would it be a time share? I just drafted him in the 4th round of a PPR league and think he may provide great value, but the schedule does concern me, moreso than the rookie QB, who should probably provide a nice spark.

 
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'NajehHejan said:
I like Deangelo to have a bounce back year, as the talent is definitely there and Stewart has never been a hinderance before to a healthy Deangelo, but his SOS does concern me. I know there is much change-over from year to year in the NFL, and the past doesn't predict the future, but their schedule is ranked #1 hardest on NFL.com based on last year's W-L. Throw out the week 17 game against the Saints (whew) as most folks only play FF through week 16, and they play some pretty high scoring teams - the Saints once, the Falcons twice, the up and coming Buccaneers twice, Colts once, Packers once, the up and coming Lions once, and the Texans once. Those teams can really pile on the points. I really hope their defense can hold up, or otherwise they could be abandoning the run a lot as they fall behind. Who would play mostly in catch up mode, Deangelo or Goodson, or would it be a time share? I just drafted him in the 4th round of a PPR league and think he may provide great value, but the schedule does concern me, moreso than the rookie QB, who should probably provide a nice spark.
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Goodson is actually what scares me the most about DWill this season, NOT J-Stew. I say that in reference to what you describe above. Carolina is bound to be trailing early and big in a decent amount of games this year. If I knew that D-Will would remain on the field and catch all the dump offs, I'd be on board with him 100%. However, I tend to think Goodson will see a good amount of time/stats in these situations.
 
I'm not going to give projections because it's a total crap shoot with this team, especially with Cam as a wildcard. I am confident in making the following statements.

1. If I was starting an NFL team and could chose one RB for this season only it would be a toss up between CJ and Williams. DeAngelo is more talented than anyone else in the league. He'd rush for 2000 yards in Houston. Bottom line, this guy oozes value in the 4/5th round in fantasty drafts.

2. Stewart is damaged goods.

 
I realize I am late to the party on this one, but I am wondering if we collectively are missing the boat on these two. Williams and Stewart have played 36 games together the past three years (including one playoff game). In those games, Williams has averaged 14.39 FP/G while Stewart has averaged 8.94 FP/G.

I realize the Panthers offense has been going backwards instead of forwards, but projected over a 16-game season, that would net Williams 230 fantasy points and Stewart 143. In 2010, Williams would have ranked as the #6 fantasy RB with that total while Stewart would have ranked 22nd.

Now, I will admit that both of these guys on occasion have been dinged up and may not play all 16 games. Similarly, I am not sure how many rushing attempts Newton may take away from this pair of backs. But on the surface it seems that both appear to be undervalued based on their ADPs (Williams ADP of RB 17 and Stweart ADP of RB 31).

IMO, both of these guys seem to have some additional upside should the other one get injured (unless Goodson takes all the touches for the one that got hurt). Even though it's a job share, I think it's a job share with a track record (compared to other teams where there will be a job share without a track record for the current set of backs like NE, NO, MIA).

 
The thing that makes it difficult to handicap these guys is that we only seen them in a Fox-run team. I think Rivera will use guys like DW and Goodson more as pass receivers, which will increase their value. But if that O-Line can't get healthy, and if Cam can't show any downfield threat, it may be tough sledding for Panther RBs. I look for Cam to use a lot of short passes involving RBs/TEs, utilize his ability to run more (won't see as much of that in pre-season, but I fully expect to see more of it when the games count).

Plus, Stewart seems a step slow this pre-season.

Also, I really think teams will score points on the Panthers, and plenty of them. I see Panthers playing catchup a lot, which is going to minimize the ground game.

Having said all that, I think the advantage goes to DW.

 
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'David Yudkin said:
I realize I am late to the party on this one, but I am wondering if we collectively are missing the boat on these two. Williams and Stewart have played 36 games together the past three years (including one playoff game). In those games, Williams has averaged 14.39 FP/G while Stewart has averaged 8.94 FP/G.I realize the Panthers offense has been going backwards instead of forwards, but projected over a 16-game season, that would net Williams 230 fantasy points and Stewart 143. In 2010, Williams would have ranked as the #6 fantasy RB with that total while Stewart would have ranked 22nd.Now, I will admit that both of these guys on occasion have been dinged up and may not play all 16 games. Similarly, I am not sure how many rushing attempts Newton may take away from this pair of backs. But on the surface it seems that both appear to be undervalued based on their ADPs (Williams ADP of RB 17 and Stweart ADP of RB 31).IMO, both of these guys seem to have some additional upside should the other one get injured (unless Goodson takes all the touches for the one that got hurt). Even though it's a job share, I think it's a job share with a track record (compared to other teams where there will be a job share without a track record for the current set of backs like NE, NO, MIA).
Click to expand...
I agree that DeAngelo is majorly underrated. The guy's an amazing talent. I'm pretty sure I've already mentioned it, but over the last 40 or so years, the only guys with a higher ypc are Jamaal Charles and Bo Jackson. Carolina paid him $50 million, and I'm sure they plan on getting their money's worth. The line will be a dramatically improved run-blocking unit compared to last season with the return of Gross. Newton will probably hold DeAngelo back some, but at the same time, a rookie QB's best friend is a strong running game, so I could see DeAngelo getting an even bigger workload than usual. I like him as a really high-end RB2 with RB1 upside.I think Stewart is a tiny bit underrated, but not so much that I'd start a thread about it or anything. His upside is always limited by Williams' health. Typically, when Williams is healthy you can count on Stewart putting up big numbers in blowouts and small numbers in close games (or blowout losses). Looking at the Panthers this year, I don't think they're going to find themselves on the right side of many blowouts. That makes Stewart a bye-week fill-in with monstrous upside should anything happen to DeAngelo. An ADP of 31 sounds about right.
 
One thing this combo does present is the rare chance to have a lead guy and his handcuff, both of whom are proven commodities. The lead guy has upside even with the split between the two, the handcuff gets enough looks to be usable for bye weeks and you have the security of the backfield, fwiw.

The one big question mark, and I think it pertains more to Stewart, is the new coaching staff. Under the old regime, they ran SO much that even Stewart had a number of good games and both could be viable in larger leagues - we have to see how that pans out now.

 
That 30 TD season was a monster. No other team has come within 6 TDs of that total since. I think people are sick of chasing that season.

That explains Stewart's ADP, because, unless CAR makes another run at 30, Stewart's just good back-up to own.

I'm not sure why he'd be much more valuable than Tolbert or Jacobs who can be had much later.

I agree that Deangelo's undervalued though.

 
'cracKer said:
So what's up with Williams? Waivers run tonight, guessing he isn't moving.
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He’s due about $3M for the rest of the season.CAR would take a $10M cap hit next year if he is traded now. If they just release him next June the cap hit would be about $3M next year and $6M in 2014.He is not going anywhere IMO
 
Multiple league sources tell Profootballtalk.com there's a "viable chance" DeAngelo Williams is traded ahead of Thursday's 4ET deadline.

According to reporter Darin Gantt, "several" teams have reached out to Carolina, and the "interest is serious." The sizable cap hit the move would entail has led many to believe Williams is untradeable, but according to Gantt, the Panthers are "absolutely" prepared to take the hit if a desirable deal presents itself. Gantt believes it "seems apparent" Williams won't be back with the Panthers in 2013 even if he stays put Thursday. As if it wasn't already clear, Jonathan Stewart no longer has competition for lead-back duties in Carolina. Source: Profootballtalk on NBCSports.com Oct 31 - 3:37 PM

 
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